BITS Pilani

Pilani Campus
Quality Control Assurance
and Reliability
Nitin Kotkunde
Lecturer
Department of Mechanical Engineering
BITS Pilani Hyderabad Campus
BITS Pilani
Pilani Campus
Fundamentals of statistical concepts and techniques in
quality control and improvement
Chapter 4: (Part 2)
Lecture No: 6
BITS Pilani, Hyderabad Campus
Sample data can be described with frequency histograms
or variations.
Data values in a population are described by a probability
distribution.
As noted previously, random variables may be discrete or
continuous.
For discrete random variables, a probability distribution
shows the values that the random variable can assume and
their corresponding probabilities.
Probability Distributions
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Some examples of discrete random variables are the
number of defects in an assembly, the number of customers
served over a period of time, and the number of acceptable
compressors.
Continuous random variables can take on an infinite
number of values, so the probability distribution is usually
expressed as a mathematical function of the random
variable.
Probability Distributions
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Almost all variables for which numerical measurements can
be obtained are continuous in nature: for example, the
length of a pin, the diameter of a bolt, the tensile strength of
a cable, or the specific gravity of a liquid.
For a discrete random variable X, which takes on the values
x
1
, x
2
, and so on, a probability distribution function p(x) has
the following properties:
Probability Distributions
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Probability Distributions
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Let X denote a random variable that represents the number of defective
solders in a printed circuit board. The probability distribution of the
discrete random variable X may be given by



This table gives the values taken on by random variable and their
corresponding probabilities. For instance, P(X= 1) = 0.4; that is, there is
a 40% chance of finding one defective solder.

Probability Distributions:
Example
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Probability Distributions:
Example
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Consider a continuous random variable X representing the time taken to
assemble a part. The variable X is known to be between 0 and 2
minutes, and its probability

Probability Distributions:
Example
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Probability Distributions:
Example
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The cumulative distribution function (cdf) is usually denoted by F(x) and
represents the probability of the random variable X taking on a value
less than or equal to x, that is

Cumulative Distribution
Function
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Expected Value
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For the probability distribution of previous example, regarding the
defective solders, the mean or expected value E(X) is given by

Probability Distributions:
Example
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Probability Distributions:
Example
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Probability Distributions:
Example
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Hypergeometric Distribution: A hypergeometric distribution is useful
in sampling from a finite population (or lot) without replacement (i.e.,
without placing the sample elements back in the population) when the
items or outcomes can be categorized into one of two groups (usually
called success and failure).
If we consider finding a nonconforming item a success, the probability
distribution of the number of nonconforming items (x) in the sample is
given by
Discrete Distributions
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Discrete Distributions
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A lot of 20 chips contains 5 nonconforming ones. If an inspector
randomly samples 4 items, find the probability of 3 nonconforming
chips.
Discrete Distributions:
Example
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Consider a series of independent trials where each trial results in one of
two outcomes.
These outcomes are labeled as either a success or a failure.
The probability p of success on any trial is assumed to be constant.
Let X denote the number of successes if n such trials are conducted.
Then the probability of JC successes is given by


and X is said to have a binomial distribution. The mean of the binomial
random variable is given by

Binomial Distribution
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Binomial Distribution
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A manufacturing process is estimated to produce 5% nonconforming
items. If a random sample of five items is chosen, find the probability of
getting two nonconforming items.

Binomial Distribution:
Example
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Binomial Distribution:
Example
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A Poisson distribution is used to model the number of events that happen
within a product unit, space or volume, or time period.
It is assumed that the events happen randomly and independently.
The Poisson random variable is denoted by X. An observed value of x is
represented by x. The probability distribution (or mass) function of the
number of events (x) is given by


where is the mean or average number of events that happen over the
product, volume, or time period specified. The symbol e represents the
base of natural logarithms, which is equal to about 2.7183

Poisson Distribution
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The mean and the variance of Poisson distribution are equal and are
given by

The Poisson distribution is sometimes used as an approximation to the
binomial distribution when n is large (n > large) and p is small (p - 0),
such that np = is constant
Poisson Distribution
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Poisson distribution can be used when all of the following hold:
1. The number of possible occurrences of defects or nonconformities per
unit is large.
2. The probability or chance of a defect or nonconformity happening is
small (p 0).
3. The average number of defects or nonconformities per unit is constant.
Poisson Distribution
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It is estimated that the average number of surface defects in 20 m
2
of
paper produced by a process is 3. What is the probability of finding no
more than 2 defects in 40 m
2
of paper through random selection?

Poisson Distribution:
Example
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Continuous random variables may assume an infinite number of values
over a finite or infinite range.
The probability distribution of a continuous random variable X is often
called the probability density function f(x). The total area under the
probability density function is 1.
Normal Distribution The most widely used distribution in the theory of
statistical quality control is the normal distribution. The probability
density function of a normal random variable is given by

Continuous Distributions
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where is the population mean, and is the population standard
deviation.
Note that the variance
2
is the square of the standard deviation.

Continuous Distributions
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Continuous Distributions
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As the mean increases, the distribution shifts to the right, and as the
mean decreases, the distribution shifts to the left.
As the variance
2
(or standard deviation) increases, the spread about
the mean increases. A normal distribution is symmetric about the mean;
that is the mean, median, and mode are equal.

Continuous Distributions
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Note that because the shape of the density function changes with each
possible combination of and
2
, it is impossible to tabulate areas for
each conceivable normal distribution. Nevertheless, the area within
certain limits for any normal distribution can be found by looking up
tabulated areas for a standard normal distribution. The standardized
normal random variable Z is given by


The z-value, or standardized value, is the number of standard deviations
that a raw, or observed, value x is from the mean.


Continuous Distributions
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The z-value can be positive or negative. If the z-value is positive, the
raw value is to the right of the mean, whereas negative z- values
indicate points to the left of the mean.

Continuous Distributions
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The length of a machined part is known to have a normal distribution
with a mean of 100 mm and a standard deviation of 2 mm.
Continuous Distributions
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Continuous Distributions
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Continuous Distributions
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Continuous Distributions
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The exponential distribution is used in reliability analysis to describe the
time to the failure of a component or system. Its probability density
function is given by

where denotes the failure rate.
Exponential Distribution
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An exponential distribution represents a constant failure rate and is
used to model failures that happen randomly and independently.
The mean and the variance of an exponential random variable are
given by
Exponential Distribution
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It is known that a battery for a video game has an average life of 500
hours (h). The failures of batteries are known to be random and
independent and may be described by an exponential distribution.
Exponential Distribution
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Exponential Distribution
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Exponential Distribution
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Probability density function is given by


where k is a shape parameter, k > 0; and is a scale parameter, > 0.
The mean and the variance of the gamma distribution are



Gamma distributions may take on a variety of shapes, based on the choice
of the parameters k and .

Gamma Distribution
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If k = 1, a special case of the gamma distribution defaults to the exponential
distribution.
Gamma Distribution
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A random variable X has a lognormal distribution if ln(x) has a normal
distribution with mean and variance
2
, where In represents the
natural logarithm. Its probability density function is given by

Lognormal Distribution
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There are two types of estimation: point estimation and interval
estimation.
In point estimation, a single numerical value is obtained as an estimate
of the population parameter.
In interval estimation, a range or interval is determined such that there is
some desired level of probability that the true parameter value is
contained within it. Interval estimates are also called confidence
intervals.
Estimation of Product and
Process Parameters
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A point estimate consists of a single numerical value that is used to
make an inference about an unknown product or process parameter.
Desirable Properties of Estimators:
A point estimator is said to be unbiased if the expected value, or mean,
of its sampling distribution is equal to the parameter being estimated.
A point estimator is said to have a minimum variance if its variance is
smaller than that of any other point estimator for the parameter under
consideration.
Point Estimation
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Interval estimation consists of finding an interval defined by two end-
points-say, L and Usuch that the probability of the parameter being
contained in the interval is some value 1 .


This expression represents a two-sided confidence interval, with L
representing the lower confidence limit and U the upper confidence
limit.
If a large number of such confidence intervals were constructed from
independent samples, then 100(1 - )% of these intervals would be
expected to contain the true parameter value of

Interval Estimation
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The quantity (1-) is called the level of confidence or the confidence
coefficient. Confidence intervals can also be one-sided. An interval of
the type.

On the other hand, an interval of the type


Interval Estimation
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Interval Estimation
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Hypothesis Testing
- Errors in Hypothesis Testing
- Steps in Hypothesis Testing
Self Study Portion
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