Let the prior evidence e ( We can call e as background information) contain the following

information. Ten chess players participate in a chess tournament in New York City; some of them are
local people, some from out of town; some are junior players, some are seniors; some are men (M),
some are women (W). Their distribution is known to be as follows:
Furthermore, the evidence e is supposed to be such that on its basis each of the ten players has an
equal chance of becoming the winner, hence 1/10 . . . It is assumed that in each case [of evidence that
certain players have been eliminated] the remaining players have equal chances of winning.

Let h be the hypothesis that an out-of-towner wins; let k be the hypothesis that a senior wins. Let i be
evidence stating that a woman wins. The following values can be read directly from table 1:

Thus, i confirms h and i confirms k, but i nevertheless disconfirms h v k.

c(h,e) is the function of confirmation. We can rewrite it as P(H|E) and c(h,e,i) means P(H|E.I).

R(i,h,e) is the degree of confirmation provided by the evidence, I, to the hypothesis h on

the basis of background information e.
R(i,h,e) = P(H|E.I) - P(H|E)