2

,


:


.
,
,
,
.
,
, ,

.
, ,
,
( ., 2002, . 37).
:
() , ,
, ,
. ,

.

()

.
()

.
1


2.)

, .
ex ante . ,
, ,
(ex post) . (ex
post) .
,
ex ante
(ex post). , ex ante,
.
,
- (stock).
(stock),
( ., 1990, . 26-32).
2.A.1) .

(equation f exchange)
Irving Fisher. (
Fisher). ,
. :
=

(


)

(,
)

(,
)

V =

. ,

.
2


,
1 (= +
). ,
.
V .
100 .

400 , (V=2)
100 / (
) 400 .
, (velocity of
circulation of money) V = . / .
( )
, , ,
. .
, :
. V = .

(2.1)

,
. ,
( . )
10 , () 2 ,
(V) 10/2 = 5. ,
5 10
, .
Irving Fisher
.
, -
-
. ,
,
,

( ., 2002, . 38-44).
3


,
.
( )
:
.V=.Q

(2.2)

.V=

(2.3)

:
=

V=

,
,

(
)

Q=

, ,
( Y=.Q
)

, . ,

. ,

.
.

:
, V , Q
.
,
.
V , Q ,
V :
M=.Q/V
4

(2.4)


1/V = K (2.4) :
=K.P.Q

(2.5)

(2.5) ,
K. (V).
K
. , K=/(.Q)
ex post ,
.
K ex ante

(, , ). ,
L
, ex ante K :
L=.P.Q

(2.6)

(2.6) K
P.Q. , , K=0,2
20%
.
(2.6)

.
(, ) .
,

.

:
, , .

, Q K.
K ,
.


, K (K = K ),
.
(excess)
.
,
.
. Q ,
(Q = Q ).
,
, :

L K P Q

(2.7)

(2.7) 2.1:

P
L

2.1.
2.1 , K

Q , , ,
. ,
, , (
)
( ).



( Irving Fisher
Cambridge, Alfred Marshall), , (2.7)
:

L
K Q
P

(2.8)

(2.8)
( -
) , , .
,
( ) (in real terms)

.
, (2.7) (2.8),

.
2.A.1.1)
.
, (2.7)
(2.8),

.
.
,

.

. ,
, ,
,
.
,
,
7


:
, Q , K (
V )
, .
, , ,
.
,
.
- (2.7) (2.8)
-
(- ., 2002, . 123).
2..2) .

.
,

.

. ,

. Keynes,
(1923) .


, .
Keynes (1930, 1936)
: ) t,
1 Keynes, )
p, 2
Keynes, ) Ms,
3 Keynes.

8


Fisher Marshall.
, ,

.


, .


( ., 2002,
. 53-57).
.


. :

dM t
0
dY

t = g(),

(2.9)

.
dM p
0
dY

p = h(),

(2.10)

, ,

,
,
.

dM s
0
di

s = f(i),

(2.11)

, , Ms,
, Mp,
. ,
, Mp Ms.
9


, ,
Mp Ms. ,
, Mt,
, Ms.
2..2.1) .

Fisher
,

. ,


(, = = ),
.
, -
,
: -
,
.
, ,
,
,
.
,
( )
. , ,
3.000 . , ( ,
), -
, ,
( ) (100/,
10


), .
, , ,
1.500 .
(
)
.
1.500 12 x 3.000 = 36.000 ,
1/24 ,
24,
( ) 1/24 4%
(V = 24 K = 0,04).

. ,
, (3.000 ),
( 1 ) 50%
1.500 .
, ,
750 , ,
V = 48 (
) 2% ( = 0,02) .


, ,
.


(
), .
, , ,

. ,

, 3.000
11


3.600 ,
1.500 1.800 .
V = 24,
4% ( = 0,04) .
20% (
) 20%
. ( )
,
:
t = K .
:

(2.12)

dM t
0
dY

, t,
() ,
, ( ., 2000, . 178-212).
(2.12) 2.2:

Y
Mt

Mt
2.2.

2.2 , K ,
, Keynes,
. ,
, , , ,
12


(
)
(
).

. .
, Keynes,
(.. Q)
( Q < Q ). ,


, Keynes
. , Keynes,

, , , Q.
(
) ,

, Q.
2..2.2) .

Keynes

.
,

.
,


.

13


Keynes, James Tobin
(1958),
1 (

).

.
,
,
. ,

, , ,
, .
,
,
,
.
,
, ( ., 2000,
198-207).

, Pt,
, i. ,
, Pt,
, i, .
:
,
,
,
, . ,
,
, (
1

14


) , ,
, .

:
=
i

C
MPt

:
, C/Pt,
, i,
;
: ,
( ),
g (capital gain).
:
ie: (ie=C/Pe)
i: (i=C/Pt)
Pe: (Pe=C/ie)
Pt: (Pt=C/i)

. , , g,
:
g

MP e MPt

MPt

C C

e
i
gi
C
i
C C
e
gi i
C C
i
i

i
1
ie

(2.13)

, (Pe>Pt),
(ie<i),
15


(g>0). ,
(Pe<Pt),
(ie>i), (g<0). ,
(Pe=Pt),
(ie=i),
(g=0).

:
) , i=C/Pt,
) ( ), g=(i/ie)-1.
,
, , i,
, g, (i+g).
,

:
i g 0
i
i e 1 0
i
ie
i
1 ie

, (
) ,
:
i g 0
i
i e 1 0
i
i

ie
1 ie

, ic,
.
:
ic

ie
1 ie
16

(2.14)


,
, i, ,
ic.
ie
i ic
1 ie

,

.
, ie,
, ic, , i.
- , i, , ic,
, ,
, i, , ic,
,
.

2.3.
i

ic

ie
1 ie

Ms

2.3.

17


:
i>ic:

i=ic:

,
.

i<ic:

,
.
: (
) (
).
.


2.4.

i
ic 7
ic 6
ic 5
ic 4
ic 3
ic 2
ic1

Ms

Ms
2.4.
18


2.4
,
.

. ,
(imax)

. , , , (imin)

( ,
). ,
,
2.5.

i
imax

Ms

imin

Ms
2.5.

:
M s f i

dM s
0.
di
19

2..2.3) .

, Keynes,
,
,
. :
L Mt Ms
L K Y f i

(2.15)

Mt K Y

M s f i

dL
dL
0,
0.
dY
di

, , Keynes,
, (=P.Q),
, i.
2..2.4)
Keynes.

.
1.
2.6, -
: M t1 K Y1 -
t1. ,
2
t1.
,

2

.
.

20


2.6 Ms

.
s
Ms

.
Y
Mt

Y2
Y1

M t1

M t2

M t1

M t2

Mt

imax
Ms
L1 M s M t1
L2 M s M t 2

imin
0

L, M t , M s
2.6.

21




. , 2.6 ,
, L1 M t1 M s ,
Mt1 s.
1
2.
, 2.6,
()
( Mt1 t2). ,
, t1
t2.

s .


.
L1 M t1 M s

L2 M t 2 M s .

2 1.
( )
L2 M t 2 M s L1 M t1 M s .

i.
,
, ,
. ,

, .
( 2.7), , ,
.

. , , ,
22


s
Ms

.

Mt

Y1
0

M t1

M t1

Mt

imax
Ms
L M t1 M s
iB

B
A

iA
imin

M t1 M sB LB M sA LA
LA M t1 M sA
LB M t1 M sB
2.7.

23


, ,
, Mt,
, L.
, ,
1,
Mt1,
Mt1 L.
,
L, . , iA,
,
L, LA M t1 M sA .


iA iB.
, iB, L
LB M t1 M sB .
, ceteris paribus, iA
iB, L ( L),
,
( ),
LA M t1 M sA LB M t1 M sB .
, .
, .
, , ,
.

,
() .

:
(, L
) , ,
24


, , /
, Q.
ceteris paribus (,
L ) . , ceteris paribus,

. , ,
L
.

. ,
,
(
) . ,
,
,
, , ,
.
, ,

.

2.) .

(,
) .
,
,
.

(,
, ).

25


:
1. :
,
,

.
,
.

. , ,
,
.
) ,
, .
,
.
2. :

,


.
,
,

. , , ,
, .
, , ,

. ,
, , .

26


3.
:

, R,

.
R

, ,
. , R
, .
,

.

,
.
2..1) .

,

.


(- ., 2002, . 140144):
1. (
)
2.
.
3. .

, .

27


, ,
, 1 (= + ).
,
, = M . , M ,
P, Q, Y, K i. , (
2.8) (
, L, , , ).

P, Q, K , Y , i

M M

L, M

2.8.
2..2)
.
(

2..1), :
L K P Q

(2.7)

(2.16) ( = )
L=

(2.16)

(
).
(16) .
. ,
L> L<, , > <.

28


(7) (16) :
K P Q M

(2.17)

(2.17) , ,
, (2.16).
(2.17) . ,
(2.17) K Q :

1
M
K Q

(2.18)

(2.18) .
K Q ,
( , Q)
. (2.18) ,
, P,
, . (2.18) ,
, .
10%, 10%
, .

:
LA K PA Q

(2.19)

.
, (2.17) :
M A K PA Q

(2.20)

, 2.9,
, ,
, L.

(>).
, 2.9,
.
, , , ,
LA, , . ,
29


- -
( ) , :
M B LA K PA Q

(2.21)

. , ,

, Q ,
. ,
- -
.
P

MA

MB

L
B

PB

PA

LA M A

LB M B

L, M

2.9.

, 2.9,
, ,
, L, :
M B LB K PB Q

(2.22)

, . ,
, ,
, . ,

30


. ,
, Q.
. ,
, ,
, , ,
, Q , .


. ,

.
. , ,
, Q ,

. ,
.
, .
,
.

,
.
, ,
,
( . ., 1975, . 191-231).
2..3)
.

Keynes .
, ,
.
, ,
, ,
31


.
Keynes
,
( ., 2002, .
55-56).
Y
Mt

YB

YA

M tA

i
LA

imax

M tB

MA

LB

Mt

MB

Ms
A

iA

iB
imin
0

M sA M tA
M sB

M tB

L, M
B : M B LB M tB M sA
: M B LB M tA M sB

A : M A LA M tA M sA
2.10.
32


2.10
.
, , ,
tA,
LA.
.

LA .
iA, , ,
= , LA=MA.

(>).
, 2.10,
.
, , iA,
- - (
) :
M B LA M tA M sA

(2.23)

.

iA iB. , iB,
:
M B LB M tA M sB

(2.24)

,
( )
sA MsB,
, ,
.

33


, ,

3.
,
.
,
.
,
,
(
., 1999, . 247).
, , Q,

, ,
, MtA MtB.
,
LA LB.
, L ,
, iA,
, ,
L, .
, , ,
, Q, , ,
.
, ,
,

4.

. ( .
., 1975, . 280-314).
4
, Keynes,
,
: ) )
.

34


2..4) .
:

, ,
:
1. .
2.
.
3. ( )


.
4.
.
,

,
,
.
, .

,
,
.
:
, ,
:
1. .
2.
.
3.
.
4.
,

35


5.
,
, ,
.
,
,
,
.
, .

,
,
,
,
() .

,
,
( ., 1999, . 246-247).

2.)
.
2..1) .

2.11 , ,
, LA,
, M . ,
( ),
:
M LA K PA Q

(2.25)

. , ,
36



, Q ,
. ,
.
, . , ,
, , M ,
, L, :
M LE K PE Q

(2.26)

P
M

L
B

PB

PE

PA

LA

LE M

LB

L, M

2.11.

, , , L,
, M . ,
(
), :
M L K P Q

(2.27)

, . , ,
, Q ,

. , .
, .
, , ,
37


, M ,
, L, :
M LE K PE Q .

(2.28)

2..2) .

2.12, i,
(
), :
M LB M tE M sB

(2.29)

.

.
, i. , ,
:
M LE M tE M sE

(2.30)

,
( )
s Ms,
, ,
.

38


i
imax
iB

L M

iE

iA

imin

LB

LE M

L
L, M

LA

2.12.

i,
( ),
:
M L M tE M s

(2.31)

,
.
.
, i.
, ,
, , :
M LE M tE M sE .

39

(2.32)

:
-, . (2002), , : ,
.
, . (2000), , : , .
, . , . (1975),
, , .
, . (1999), ,
, .
, . (2002), ,
, , .
, . (1990), , ,
,
(.....)
:
Keynes, J. . (1930), Treatise on Money, London: Macmillan.
Keynes, J. . (1936), The General Theory f Employment, Interest and Money,
London: Macmillan.
Keynes, J. . (1923), Tract on Monetary Reform, London: Macmillan.
Ross, S. A., Westerfield, R. W. and Jaffe, J. (2002), Corporate Finance, McGrawHill, 6th edition, New York.
Tobin, J. (1958), Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk, Review f
Economic Studies.

40

(consols)
C (=) (,
. English
Consols 18
(Ross,
Westerfield and Jaffe, 2002, . 105).
, MPt, consols
, :
MPt

C
C
C
C

...

2
3
1 i 1 i 1 i
1 i n

MPt

1
1
1
C
1

...
2
1 i 1 i 1 i
1 i n1

1 1

1 i

C 1

MPt

1 i 1 1

1 i

MPt

C
i

(2.1)

, (2.1) consols, MPt,

, i.

.
C = 100 .
i = 10% = 0,1. (= ), F, :

C 100

1000
i
0,1
41

(2.2)


, F,
1000 , ,
,
, i = 10% =
0,1. , ,
F = 1000 .
, , F, 1000

.

F = 1000 .
consols
MPt. , MPt,
consols : C/MPt.
, C/MPt, consols
, i, (, C/MPt<i)
. consols
, MPt, C/MPt=i.
, , C/MPt, consols
, i, (, C/MPt>i)
. consols
, MPt, C/MPt=i.
, (MPt=C/i)

, i. , C/MPt,
, i. ,
:
= (C/MPt=i).
, , (= ), F,
. ( C=),
, C/F,
, i. C/F=i
F=MPt.
42