Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Kinh Te VI Mo
Kinh Te VI Mo
MC LC
LI M U ................................................................................................. 4
A/ C s l thuyt chung v lm pht ,tht nghip v tng trng kinh t. ... 6
I ). Tm hiu v tht nghip............................................................................. 6
1. Khi nim v tht nghip: ........................................................................... 6
2. Cc ch tiu th hin tnh trng tht nghip ................................................ 6
3. Phn loi tht nghip v cc loi tht nghip ............................................. 8
4. Tc hi ca tht nghip ............................................................................... 9
II/ Lm pht................................................................................................... 11
1. Khi nim .................................................................................................. 11
2.Cc thc o lm pht. .............................................................................. 11
3/ Phn loi lm pht .................................................................................... 12
4.Tc hi ca lm pht : ................................................................................ 13
5. Cc nguyn nhn gy ra lm pht ............................................................. 14
6/ Bin php kim ch lm pht: .................................................................. 17
III / Tng trng kinh t ............................................................................... 18
1. Khi nim .................................................................................................. 18
2.Phng php xc nh tng trng kinh t ................................................ 18
3. Nhng nhn t nh hng n mc tng trng Kinh t quc dn ........ 18
4.Cc dng tng trng kinh t: .................................................................... 19
5. Cc biu hin in hnh v kinh t trong s tng trng.......................... 20
B/ Phn tch mi quan h ca tng trng ,lm pht v tht nghip. ........... 21
I. Phn tch mi quan h lm pht v tht nghip......................................... 21
LI M U
Trong giai on hin nay, khi t nc ang trn pht trin rc r, chng ta
ngy cng thy c tm quan trng ca vn tng trng kinh t v lm
pht,tht nghip. l ba vn c bn ca kinh t v m, nh hng trc tip
n thnh qu ca qu trnh pht trin kinh t trong nhiu thp k qua v trong hin
ti ,ln tng lai ca mi t nc sau ny. Mi quan h gia ba vn ny thu
ht nhiu s quan tm ca nhiu nh nghin cu kinh t.Tuy vy, s tc ng v
nh hng qua li gia tng trng kinh t v lm pht,tht nghip l ht sc phc
tp v khng phi lc no cng tun theo nhng nguyn tc kinh t. Trong , lm
pht l mt vn khng phi xa l, n chnh l mt c im ca nn kinh t
hng ho. mi thi k kinh t vi cc mc tng trng kinh t khc nhau s c
nhng mc lm pht v mc tht nghip khc nhau ca nn kinh t. Trong thi
gian gn y,kinh t th gii c nhiu bin ng,hn l cuc khng hong ton
cu,lm gim tc tng trng v khin lm pht tng cao nhiu nc .
V vy, trong qu trnh pht trin kinh t ca mi quc gia, c bit l nc ta,
ang trn hi nhp v pht trin nh hin nay, vic tm hiu tht nghip,lm
pht, s nh hng v ph hp vi tng trng v pht trin kinh t l v cng
quan trng.
T nhng l do trn, chng ti mun Phn tch mi quan h tht nghip ,lm pht
v tc tng trng kinh t ,ng thi minh ha trn s liu thc t ca Vit
Nam nhng nm gn y.
Lc lng lao ng
Trong
tui
lao ng
C vic
Tht nghip
Dn s
Ngoi
tui
lao ng
- Tnh t lc lng lao ng x hi v ngi c vic lm.
S ngi tht nghip = Tng lc lng lao ng x hi s ngi trong danh sch
lao ng ca cc n v lao ng
2.2/T l tht nghip
o lng mc tht nghip trong nn kinh t chng ta s dng ch tiu t l
tht nghip:
S ngi tht nghip
x100
T l tht nghip(%) =
Lc lng lao ng
c. Tht nghip chu k (cn gi l tht nghip do thiu cu, tht nghip theo thuyt
Keynes) L loi tht nghip c to ra bi tnh trng suy thoi nn kinh t, sn
lng tt xung thp hn s lng tht nghip.
4. Tc hi ca tht nghip
* i vi c nhn ngi lao ng:
Gim thu nhp
K nng, chuyn mn mai mt
Hnh phc gia nh b e da
* i vi x hi
Sn lng nn kinh t gim st
SL
S'L
SL
DL
Wo
DL
D L1
0
Y
L1
L
b)Theo quan im ca trng phi Keynes (l thuyt v tin cng cng nhc)
:Hnh b
_ Quan im: gi c v tin lng u ht sc cng nhc.
_ Nguyn nhn:tht nghip xy ra khi nn kinh t b suy thoi dn n s suy gim
ca tng cu lm cho mc cu chung v lao ng gim xung. ng cu lao
ng dch chuyn sang tri trong khi gi c v tin lng cng nhc dn n ton
b th trng lao ng b mt cn bng.
6.Bin php gim tht nghip.
i vi tht nghip chu k:
Thc hin chnh sch ti kha m rng
II/ Lm pht
1. Khi nim
-Lm pht l tnh trng mc gi chung tng ln (trong mt thi gian nht nh).
-Hay l tnh trng pht hnh tin qu mc.
-Gim pht l tnh trng mc gi chung gim xung theo thi gian (S pht
hnh tin t khng mc cn cho lu thng hng ha).
2.2.T l lm pht
-T l lm pht l thc o ch yu ca lm pht trong mt thi k. Quy m v s
bin ng ca n phn nh quy m v xu hng lm pht:
-T l lm pht c tnh nh sau:
gp
Ip1
(
- 1) x100
Ip0
Trong :
4.Tc hi ca lm pht :
Nn kinh t km hiu qu
Lm pht lm sai lch tn hiu gi
Mt nhiu thi gian v sc lc i ph lm pht
Chi ph thc n
Ri lon th trng vn, bin dng u t
Gim nng lc cnh tranh hng ha trong nc
ASL
ASS
E2
th minh ha :
P
AS L
AS S1
AS S
AD
AS L1 ASL ASS1
P1
E1
P1
AD
E
P0
P0
Yo1
Y*
Y1
Y*
ASL
ASS3
AD3
P3=1,05P2
P2=1,05P1
AD2
E3
ASS2
AD1
ASS1
E2
P1
E1
Y*
GDPr1
GDPr1
x100
GDPr0
v GDPr0 L
C= C + MPC.Y
S= -C + MPS.Y
C
45
-C
S= -C + MPS.Y
I, S
S1
I
i1
Y
Y
-C
i2
I (i)
Y*
1. ng Phillips ban u
Da vo kt qu thc nghim nhiu nm v tin lng, gi c, tht nghip
Anh ra i ng Phillips c dng nh hnh b v gi l ng Phillips ban u.
ng ny cho thy mi quan h nghch gia tht nghip v lm pht v n
cng ph hp vi thc t kinh t nhiu nc Ty u thi k nhng nm 50. Tc l
c s nh i gia lm pht tht nghip.
ng Phillips c xy dng hon chnh v c dng nh sau:
gp = - (u - u* )
(*)
Trong : gp - t l lm pht.
u - t l tht nghip thc t.
u*- t l tht nghip t nhin.
- dc ng Phillips.
ng ny cho thy nhng c im sau y (hnh a):
- Lm pht bng khng khi tht nghip thc t bng t l t nhin.
- Khi tht nghip thc t thp hn tht nghip t nhin th lm pht
xy ra.
- dc cng ln th mt s tng, gim nh ca tht nghip s gy ra s tng,
gim ng k v lm pht. ln ca phn nh s phn ng ca tin lng. Nu
tin lng c phn ng mnh th ln, nu c tnh cao th nh (ng
Phillips s xoay ngang). Nu ng Phillips gn nh nm ngang th lm pht phn
ng rt km vi tht nghip.
th:
T l
lm pht
gp
PC
T l tht nghip
Hnh a: Mi quan h gia lm pht v tht nghip
u*
B
PC
2. ng Phillips m rng
Thc t ngy nay gi c khng h xung theo thi gian do c lm pht
d kin, v th ng Phillips c m rng thm bng vic bao gm c t l
lm pht d kin v c dng nh sau:
gp = gpe - (u-u*)
(**)
gp
th:
PC1
u*
PC2
3. ng Phillips di hn (LPC)
Trong ngn hn, t l tht nghip thc t c th khng bng t l tht
nghip d kin, nhng trong di hn chng s bng nhau bi s tc ng ca cc
chnh sch ti kho v tin t. l c s xy dng ng Phillips di hn:
0= - (u-u*)
hay: u = u*
Nh vy, t l tht nghip thc t lun bng t l tht nghip t nhin (xt trong
di hn) cho d t l lm pht thay i nh th no. Vy trong di hn lm pht v
tht nghip khng c mi quan h vi nhau.
gp
ng Phillips di hn
gpe
ng Phillips m rng
Nm
GDP(T
ng VN)
Tc
tng
trng
GDP
Lm pht
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
131,968.00
139,634.00
151,782.00
164,043.00
178,534.00
195,567.00
213,833.00
231,264.00
244,596.00
256,272.00
273,666.00
292,535.00
313,247.00
336,242.81
362,092.80
389,243.58
417,905.53
448,646.17
5.00%
5.80%
8.70%
8.10%
8.80%
9.50%
9.30%
8.20%
5.80%
4.80%
6.80%
6.90%
7.10%
7.30%
7.70%
7.50%
7.40%
7.40%
36.00%
81.80%
37.70%
8.40%
9.50%
16.90%
5.70%
3.20%
7.70%
4.20%
-1.70%
-0.40%
4.00%
3.20%
7.70%
8.00%
7.00%
12.60%
AS
Y1
Y2
GNPr
Trong :
l t l tht nghip nm t
l t l tht nghip t nhin
Y l sn lng thc t
Y* l sn lng tim nng.
= 7.5%
0.4 (y y*)
http://www.slideshare.net/guest3c41775/lm-pht-v-tng-trng-kinh-t
http://www.slideshare.net/luanvanviet/10147
http://tailieu.vn/xem-tai-lieu/bai-tieu-luan-tinh-trang-that-nghiep.537435.html
C / Minh ha trn s liu thc t ca vit nam nhng nm gn y