PHAN LY THUYET

CHNG 1

TONG QUAT VE PHAN TCH HOAT ONG

KINH DOANH
1.1. NOI DUNG PHAN TCH HOAT ONG KINH DOANH
1.1.1. Khai niem
Phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh (Operating activities analysis) la mon hoc
nghien cu qua trnh san xuat kinh doanh, bang nhng phng phap rieng, ket
hp vi cac ly thuyet kinh te va cac phng phap ky thuat khac nham en viec
phan tch, anh gia tnh hnh kinh doanh va nhng nguyen nhan anh hng en
ket qua kinh doanh, phat hien nhng quy luat cua cac mat hoat ong trong doanh
nghiep da vao cac d lieu lch s, lam c s cho cac d bao va hoach nh
chnh sach.
e quan ly doanh nghiep trong nen kinh te th trng nh hien nay, oi hoi
cac doanh nghiep khong nhng phai to chc hach toan kinh doanh mot cach
chnh xac ma con phai tch cc to chc cong tac phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh.
Cung vi ke toan va cac khoa hoc kinh te khac, phan tch hoat ong kinh la mot
trong nhng cong cu ac lc e quan ly va ieu hanh co hieu qua cac hoat ong
cua doanh nghiep.
Tien than cua phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh la cong viec co tnh xem xet
n gian mot so ch tieu tong quat da tren d lieu cua bang tong ket tai san
con goi la phan tch ke toan hay ke toan noi bo. Do s oi hoi ngay cang cao
cua nhu cau quan ly, s m rong ve quy mo cung nh xu hng i vao chieu sau
va chat lng cua cac hoat ong doanh nghiep, phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh
vi noi dung, oi tng pham vi va phng phap nghieu cu rieng biet, tat yeu
tr thanh mot khoa hoc oc lap va ngay cang hoan chnh.
2

Phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh hng en th trng khong phai nham xay
dng nhng ke hoach mot cach may moc, cng nhac ma la cong cu phuc vu cho
nhng quyet nh ngan han va dai han, oi hoi chu ong, linh hoat ngay ca oi
vi cac mat hoat ong hang ngay cua doanh nghiep. Muc tieu cua phan tch hoat
ong kinh doanh v the tng ong vi cac mon hoc mi xuat hien chng vai
thap nien tr lai ay chu yeu cac nc phat trien, nh: ke toan quan tr
management accounting; phan tch bao cao tai chnh the analysis of financial
statements, quan tr tai chnh financial management.
1.1.2. oi tng cua phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh
oi tng cua phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh la qua trnh kinh doanh va
ket qua kinh doanh tc s viec xay ra qua kh; phan tch, ma muc ch cuoi
cung la uc ket chung thanh quy luat e nhan thc hien tai va nham chung en
tng lai cho tat ca cac mat hoat ong cua mot doanh nghiep.
Cac nha phan tch tm cach lng hoa nhng tac ong en ket qua kinh
doanh. o la nhng yeu to cua qua trnh cung cap, san xuat, tieu thu va mua ban
hang hoa, thuoc lnh vc san xuat, thng mai, dch vu. ong thi cung can phai
nghien cu tnh hnh s dung cac nguon lc: von, vat t, lao ong va at ai;
nhng nhan to noi tai cua doanh nghiep hoac khach quan t pha th trng va
moi trng kinh doanh, a trc tiep anh hng en hieu qua cua cac mat hoat
ong doanh nghiep.
Do vay, qua trnh va ket qua hoat ong kinh doanh khong phai la cac so
lieu chung chung ma phai c lng hoa cu the thanh cac ch tieu kinh te va
phan tch can hng en viec thc hien cac ch tieu o e anh gia.
V du:

Noi en li tc th ay la li tc trc thue hay sau thue, li tc at c

trong 06 thang hay la ca nam, li tc tat ca cac mat hoat ong hay ch la ket qua
cua mot mat hang chnh nao o.
Hay khi noi en cac nhan to tac ong, ta co ch tieu sau:
Gia tr san lng = Tong so gi lam viec x Gia tr bnh quan mot gi
oi tung phan tch ay la ch tieu gia tr san lng co hai nhan to tac
ong la tong so gi va gia tr bnh quan mot gi lam viec. Viec thc hien ke
hoach cua oi tng phan tch se tuy thuoc vao viec thc hien ke hoach cua hai
nhan to tac ong tren.
1.1.3. Nhiem vu cu the cua phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh
anh gia gia ket qua thc hien c so vi ke hoach hoac so vi
tnh hnh thc hien ky trc, cac doanh nghiep tieu bieu cung nganh
hoac ch tieu bnh quan noi nganh va cac thong so th trng;
Phan tch nhng nhan to noi tai va khach quan a anh hng en
tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach;
Phan tch hieu qua cac phng an kinh doanh hien tai va cac d an
au t dai han;
Xay dng ke hoach da tren ket qua phan tch;
Phan tch d bao, phan tch chnh sach va phan tch rui ro tren cac
mat hoat ong cua doanh nghiep;
Lap bao cao ket qua phan tch, thuyet minh va e xuat bien phap
quan tr. Cac bao cao c the hien bang li van, bang bieu va cac
loai o th hnh tng, thuyet phuc.

1.2. CAC PHNG PHAP S DUNG TRONG PHAN TCH

1.2.1. Phng phap so sanh
e phng phap nay c phat huy het tnh chnh xac va khoa hoc, trong
qua trnh phan tch can thc hien ay u ba bc sau:
Bc 1: La chon cac tieu chuan e so sanh.
Trc het chon ch tieu cua mot ky lam can c e so sanh, c goi la ky
goc. Tuy theo muc tieu nghien cu ma la chon ky goc so sanh cho thch hp.
Neu:
Ky goc la nam trc: Muon thay uc xu hng phat trien cua oi
tng phan tch.
Ky goc la nam ke hoach (hay la nh mc): Muon thay c viec
chap hanh cac nh mc a e ra co ung theo d kien hay khong.
Ky goc la ch tieu trung bnh cua nganh (hay khu vc hoac quoc te):
Muon thay c v tr cua doanh nghiep va kha nang ap ng th
trng cua doanh nghiep.
Ky goc la nam thc hien: La ch tieu thc hien trong ky hach toan
hay ky bao cao.
Bc 2: ieu kien so sanh c.
e phep so sanh co y ngha th ieu kien tien quyet la cac ch tieu c
em so sanh phai am bao tnh chat so sanh c ve khong gian va thi gian:
Ve thi gian: Cac ch tieu phai c tnh trong cung mot khoang thi gian
hach toan nh nhau (cu the nh cung thang, quy, nam ) va phai ong nhat tren
ca ba mat:
Cung phan anh noi dung kinh te.
Cung mot phng phap tnh toan.
Cung mot n v o lng.
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Ve khong gian: Cac ch tieu kinh te can phai c quy oi ve cung quy mo
tng t nh nhau (cu the la cung mot bo phan, phan xng, mot nganh )
Bc 3: Ky thuat so sanh.
e ap ng cho cac muc tieu so sanh ngi ta thng s dung cac ky thuat
so sanh sau:
So sanh bang so tuyet oi: La ket qua cua phep tr gia tr so cua ky phan
tch so vi ky goc, ket qua so sanh nay bieu hien khoi lng, quy mo cua cac
hien tng kinh te.
So sanh bang so tng oi: La ket qua cua phep chia gia tr so cua ky
phan tch so vi ky goc. Ket qua so sanh nay bieu hien toc o phat trien, mc o
pho bien cua cua cac ch tieu kinh te.
V du: Co so lieu tai mot doanh nghiep sau:
So

Khoan

Ke

Thc

TT

muc

hoach

hien

Doanh thu

Chenh lech
So tuyet oi

So T
(%)

100.000

130.000

+30.000

30,0

Gia von hang ban

80.000

106.000

+26.000

32,5

Chi ph hoat ong

12.000

15.720

+3.720

31,0

Li nhuan

8.000

8.280

+280

3,5

Bang 1.1. Bang phan tch bien ong cac khoan muc
* Chu y: Chi ph hoat ong gom chi ph ban hang cong vi chi ph quan ly
doanh nghiep.
So sanh tnh hnh thc hien (TH) so vi ke hoach (KH):
Doanh thu: at 130%, vt 30% (30 trieu ong)
Gia von hang ban: at 132,5%, vt 32,5 % (26 trieu ong)
Chi ph hoat ong: at 131%, vt 31% (3,720 trieu ong)
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 Li nhuan: at 103,5%, vt 3,5% (0,28 trieu ong)

Ta hay cung phan tch ve ty suat li nhuan tren doanh thu e co ket luan
cuoi cung:
Ty suat LN ke hoach = (8.000/100.000)x100% = 8%
Ty suat LN thc hien = (8.280/130.000)x100% = 6,37%
Nhan xet:
Trong ky thc hien doanh thu vt ke hoach 30%, tuy nhien cac ch tieu ve
gia von va chi ph kinh doanh co toc o tang trng nhanh hn so vi toc o tang
trung doanh thu (32,5% va 31%) v vay lam cho li nhuan tang khong ang ke.
Mat khac, ty trong cua chi ph so vi doanh thu qua hai ky nh sau:

Ke hoac h:
Thc hien :

( 80.000 + 12.000 )
100.000

100% = 92%

(106.000 + 15.720 )
130.000

100% = 93, 63%

Ty trong chi ph trong ky at va vt so vi ke hoach: 93,63% - 92%=

1,63% a lam cho ty suat li nhuan giam i tng ng: 6,37% - 8% = -1,63%.
Ket luan cua quan tr:
Phai tm cach kiem soat chi ph ban hang va tiet kiem chi ph kinh
doanh;
Gi toc o tang chi ph hang ban va chi ph kinh doanh thap hn toc
o tang doanh so, nham nang cao hieu qua hoat ong.
So sanh bang so bnh quan: La dang ac biet cua so sanh tuyet oi, bieu
hien tnh ac trng chung ve mat so lng, nham phan anh ac iem chung cua
mot n v kinh te, mot bo phan hay mot tong the chung co cung mot tnh chat.
So sanh mc ong tng oi co ieu chnh theo quy mo chung:

Mc ong tng oi la ket qua so sanh gia tr so ky phan tch vi tr so

cua ky goc, nhng a c ieu chnh theo mot he so cua ch tieu co lien quan,
ma ch tieu co lien quan nay quyet nh quy mo cua ch tieu phan tch.
Mc ong tng oi = Ky thc hien (Ky goc x he so ieu chnh)
Ta co cong thc xac nh cu the cho tng oi tng:
Bien ong doanh thu = Doanh thu TH - (Doanh thu KH Ch so gia)
Bien ong quy lng = Quy lng TH - (Quy lng KH %hoan thanh DT)

V du: Tai doanh nghiep X trong quy I nam 2006, tong mc tien lng cua
cong nhan thc te (ky phan tch) a chi ra la 300 trieu ong. Nhng neu theo d
kien (ky ke hoach hay ky trc) th tong mc tien lng cua cong nhan co the
chi ra la 200 trieu ong. Gia s doanh nghiep trong quy I nay a hoan thanh ke
hoach san xuat san lng san pham bang 160%. Neu goi H la he so ieu chnh,
F1, F0 la tong mc tien lng cua cong nhan san xuat ky thc hien va ky ke
hoach, th mc bien ong tng oi c xac nh nh sau:
So tuyet oi: F = F1 F0 . H

So tng oi:

F1
100%
F 0.H

Trong o, F0.H la tong mc tien lng cua cong nhan ky ke hoach, nhng
a c ieu chnh theo trnh o hoan thanh ke hoach ve san lng san pham.
Van dung cong thc ta tnh c:
F = 300 200 x 1,6 = -20 (trieu ong)
Hay tng ng vi:

300
100% = 93,7%
200 1,6

Nhan xet:
Tong mc tien lng cua cong nhan san xuat thc te chi ra khong phai la
tang len, ma a tiet kiem c 20 trieu ong so vi ke hoach, vi so tng oi
giam i 6,3%. Ngha la neu doanh nghiep X hoan thanh ke hoach san pham
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hang hoa la 100% th c phep chi ra la 200 trieu ong tong mc tien lng cua
cong nhan. Do doanh nghiep a hoan thanh ke hoach san lng san pham bang
160%, th c phep chi ra la 320 trieu ong ve tong mc tien lng, nhng tren
thc te doanh nghiep ch chi ra la 300 trieu ong nen a tiet kiem c 20 trieu
ong ve chi ph tien lng cong nhan, vi so giam tng oi la 6,3% (93,7% 100%).
1.2.2. Phng phap thay the lien hoan

La phng phap ma o cac nhan to lan lt c thay the theo mot trnh
t nhat nh e xac nh chnh xac mc o anh hng cua chung en ch tieu can
phan tch (oi tng phan tch) bang cach co nh cac nhan to khac trong moi lan
thay the.
Bc 1: Xac nh cong thc.

La thiet lap moi quan he cua cac nhan to anh hng en ch tieu phan tch
qua mot cong thc nhat nh. Cong thc gom tch so cac nhan to anh hng en
ch tieu phan tch.
V du:
Doanh thu = Gia ban x San lng tieu thu
( Nhan to )

Chi ph NVL
trc tiep

( Nhan to )

So lng
san xuat

Lng NVL
tieu hao

n gia nguyen
vat lieu

Khi xay dng cong thc can thc hien theo mot trnh t nhat nh, t nhan
to san lng en nhan to chat lng, neu co nhieu nhan to lng hoac nhieu
nhan to chat th sap xep nhan to chu yeu trc va nhan to th yeu sau.
Bc 2: Xac nh cac oi tng phan tch.

So sanh so thc hien vi so lieu goc, chenh lech co c o chnh la oi

tng phan tch.
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Goi Q la ch tieu can phan tch;

Goi a, b, c la trnh t cac nhan to anh hng en ch tieu phan tch;
The hien bang phng trrnh: Q = a . b . c
at Q1: Ch tieu ky phan tch, Q1= a1 . b1. c1
Q0: Ch tieu ky ke hoach, Q0 = a0 . b0 . c0
Q1 Q0 = Q: mc chenh lech gia ky thc hien va ky goc, ay cung la oi
tng can phan tch.
Q = a1 . b1 . c1 a0 . b0 . c0
Bc 3: Xac nh mc o anh hng cua cac nhan to.

Thc hien theo trnh t cac bc thay the. (Lu y: Nhan to a thay bc
trc phai c gi nguyen cho bc sau thay the)
Thay the bc 1 (cho nhan to a)
a0 . b0 . c0 c thay the bang a1 . b0 . c0

Mc o anh hng cua nhan to a la:

a = a1 . b0 . c0 a0 . b0 . c0
Thay the bc 2 (cho nhan to b)
a1 . b0 . c0 c thay the bang a1 . b1 . c0
Mc o anh hng cua nhan to b la:
b = a1 . b1 . c0 a1. b0 . c0
Thay the bc 3 (Cho nhan to c)
a1 . b1 . c0 c thay the bang a1 . b1 . c1
Mc o anh hng cua nhan to c la:
c = a1 . b1 . c1 a1 . b1 . c0
Tong hp mc o anh hng cua cac nhan to, ta co: a + b +c = Q
V du:
Tai mot doanh nghiep co tai lieu sau:
10

CH TIEU

KY KE HOACH

KY THC HIEN

So lng san pham san xuat

1.000 sp

1.200 sp

8 gi

7 gi

2.000 ong

2.500 ong

So gi lao ong cho 1 SP

n gia mot gi cong

Bang 1.2. Tnh hnh san xuat san pham

Yeu cau:
Hay phan tch tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach chi ph nhan cong trc tiep.
Cong viec phan tch c tien hanh nh sau:
Xac nh cong thc:

Goi:
Q0, Q1 la san lng san pham san xuat ky ke hoach va ky thc te;
H0, H1 la so gi lao ong cho 1 san pham ky ke hoach va ky thc te;
P0, P1 la n gia mot gi cong cua ky ke hoach va ky thc te;
C0, C1 la chi ph nhan cong trc tiep ky ke hoach va thc te;
C la oi tng can phan tch;
Vay ta co:
C0 = Q0.H0.P0 = 1000 x 8 x 2000 = 16.000.000 ong.
C1= Q1.H1.P1 = 1.200 x 7 x 2500 = 21.000.000 ong.
C = C1 C0 = 21.000.000 16.000.000 = 5.000.000 ong (oi tng
phan tch)
Tnh cac mc anh hng cua cac nhan to:

Thay the bc 1 (cho nhan to Q):

Q1.H0.P0 = 1.200 x 8 x 2000 = 19.200.000 ong.
Mc o anh hng cua nhan to Q:
Q1.H0.P0 Q0.H0.P0 = 19.200.000 16.000.000 = 3.200.000 ong.
Thay the bc 2 (cho nhan to H):
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Q1.H1.P0 = 1.200 x 7 x 2000 = 16.800.000 ong.

Mc o anh hng cua nhan to H:
Q1.H1.P0 Q1.H0.P0 = 16.800.000 19.200.000 = -2.400.000 ong.
Thay the bc 3 (cho nhan to P):
Q1. H1. P1 = C1 = 21.000.000 ong
Mc o anh hng cua nhan to P:
Q1. H1. P1 Q1. H1. P0 = 21.000.000 16.800.000 = 4.200.000 ong.
Tong hp mc o anh hng cua cac nhan to:
3.200.000 + (-2.400.000) + 4.200.000 = 5.000.000 ong.
Bc 4: Tm nguyen nhan lam thay oi cac nhan to:

Neu do nguyen nhan chu quan t doanh nghiep th phai tm bien phap e
khac phuc nhng nhc iem, thieu xot e ky sau thc hien c tot hn.
Bc 5: a ra cac bien phap khac phuc nhng nhan to chu quan anh

hng khong tot en chat lung kinh doanh va ong thi cung co, xay dng
phng hng cho ky sau.
* u va nhc iem cua phng phap thay the lien hoan:
u iem:
La phng phap n gian, de tnh toan so vi cac phng phap xac nh
nhan to anh hng khac.
Phng phap thay the lien hoan co the xac nh c cac nhan to co quan
he vi ch tieu phan tch bang thng, tong, hieu, tch so va ca so %.
Nhc iem:
Khi xac nh nhan to nao o, phai gia nh cac nhan to khac khong oi,
trong thc te cac nhan to co the thay oi.

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Viec sap xep trnh t cac nhan to phai t nhan to san lng en chat lng,
trong thc te viec phan biet ro rang gia nhan to san lng va nhan to chat
lng la khong de dang.
1.2.3. Phng phap so chenh lech

Thc chat cua phng phap nay la trng hp ac biet cua phng phap
thay the lien hoan. Phng phap nay cung thc hien ay u cac bc nh vay,
tuy ch khac iem sau:
Khi xac nh nhan to anh hng en ch tieu phan tch, thay v ta tien hanh
thay the so lieu ma se dung so chenh lech cua tng nhan to e tnh anh hng
cua tng nhan to.
V du: Lay so lieu v du tren
Anh hng cua nhan to san lng = (1200sp - 1000sp) x 8gi/sp x 2000/gi

3.200.000 ong
Anh hng cua gi cong tieu hao = 1200sp x (7gi/sp - 8gi/sp) x 2000/gi = 2.400.000 ong
Anh hng cua n gia gi cong = 1200sp x 7gi/sp x (2500/gi -2000/gi) =
4.200.000 ong
Tong hp mc o anh hng cua cac nhan to:
3.200.000 + (-2.400.000) + 4.200.000 = 5.000.000 ong
Nh vay, phng phap so chenh lech ch co the thc hien c khi cac
nhan to co quan he bang tch so, va thng so en ch tieu phan tch ma thoi.
* Chu y: Neu co cac nhan to anh hng en ch tieu phan tch trong ky goc
va thc hien:
Ky ke hoach = A0 x B0 x C0 x D0
Ky thc hien = A1 x B1 x C1 x D1
Ta co:
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Anh hng cua nhan to (A) = (A1 A0) x B0 x C0 x D0

Anh hng cua nhan to (B) = A1 x (B1 B0) x C0 x D0
Anh hng cua nhan to (C) = A1 x B1 x (C1 C0) x D0
Anh hng cua nhan to (D) = A1 x B1 x C1 x (D1 D0)
1.2.4. Phng phap lien he can oi

Cung la phng phap dung e phan tch mc o anh hng cua cac nhan to
ma gia chung co san moi lien he can oi va chung la nhan to oc lap. Mot
lng thay oi trong moi nhan to se lam thay oi trong ch tieu phan tch ung
mot lng tng ng.
Nhng lien he can oi thng gap trong phan tch nh: Tai san va nguon
von; can oi hang ton kho; ang thc qua trnh kinh doanh; nhu cau von va s
dung von v.v..
V du:
Dung phng phap lien he can oi, phan tch cac nhan to noi tai anh hng
en gia tr hang ton kho cuoi ky qua so lieu sau:
n v tnh: ngan ong
Ch tieu

Ton au ky

Nhap trong

Xuat trong

ky

ky

Ton cuoi ky

Thc hien

90.000

1.100.000

1.110.000

80.000

Ke hoach

100.000

1.000.000

1.050.000

50.000

Bang 1.3. Tnh hnh nhap xuat ton

Ta co lien he can oi:

Ton au ky + Nhap trong ky = Xuat trong ky + Ton cuoi ky
Suy ra:
Ton cuoi ky = Ton au ky + Nhap trong ky Xuat trong ky
(Q)

(a)

(b)

(c)
14

Goi: Q la ch tieu can phan tch;

a, b, c la cac nhan to co lien he oc lap, anh hng en ch tieu can phan
tch.
Ta co oi tng phan tch (Q):
Ton kho cuoi ky Ton kho cuoi ky = 80.000 50.000 = 30.000 ng
Q = Q1 Q0 = a + b - c. Nh vay:
Mc o anh hng cua nhan to a (ton au ky):
a = a1 a0 = 90.000 100.000 = -10.000 ng
Mc o anh hng cua nhan to b (Nhap trong ky):
b = b1 b0 = 1.100.000 1.000.000 = 100.000 ng
Mc o anh hng cua nhan to c (Xuat trong ky):
c = c1 c0 = 1.110.000 1.050.000 = 60.000 ng
Tong hp cac nhan to anh hng:
Q = Q1 Q0 = a + b - c = -10.000 + 100.000 + 60.000 = 30.000 ng
Phng phap can oi c s dung nhieu trong cong tac lap ke hoach san
xuat kinh doanh va ngay ca cong tac hach toan. Ta xet v du cu the: T ket qua
can oi gia tai san va nguon von trong bang can oi ke toan se giup nha quan
ly c cau tai tnh hien tai va viec s dung nguon tai chnh o mang lai hieu qua
nh the nao, e t o co nhng d bao cho thi gian ti.

15

Tai san

A. Tai san ngan han

So au
nam

So
cuoi
ky

400

440

50

II. Phai thu

Chenh
lech

Nguon von

So

So

au

cuoi

nam

ky

Chenh
lech

+ 40 A. N phai tra

300

340

+ 40

70

+ 20

I. N ngan han

100

80

- 20

100

120

+ 20

II. N dai han

200

260

+ 60

III. Ton kho

250

250

- B. Von chu s hu

700

770

+ 70

B. Tai san dai han

600

670

700

770

+ 70

I. Tai san co nh

500

610 + 110 1. Von au t CSH

550

550

II. au t dai han

100

150

220

+ 70

I. Tien

Cong tai san

60

+ 70 I. Von chu s hu

- 40 2.LN cha phan phoi

1.000 1.110 + 110

Cong nguon von

1.000 1.110 + 110

Bang 1.4. Bang phan tch cac khoan muc bang can oi ke toan

Nhn chung tong tai san cung nh nguon von cuoi ky tang 110 trieu so vi
au nam, nh vay ve quy mo hoat ong doanh nghiep a tang len ang ke.
Ve mat tai san: Chu yeu tang do tai san co nh tang 110 trieu, sau o la
cac khoan phai thu tang 20 trieu, con au t dai han giam 40 trieu.
Ve mat nguon von: Chu yeu tang do li nhuan sau thue cha phan phoi
tang 70 trieu va n dai han tang 60 trieu, con n ngan han giam 20 trieu.
S dung phng phap can oi e phan tch, vi s can oi gia tai san va
nguon von ta thay, doanh nghiep a giam cac khoan au t dai han, tang n vay
dai han e au t cho tai san co nh, ket qua hoat ong trong nam doanh nghiep
a tang li nhuan sau thue cha phan phoi la 70 trieu ong.
1.2.5. Phng phap hoi quy

Hoi quy noi theo cach n gian, la i ngc lai ve qua kh (regression)
e nghien cu nhng d lieu (data) a dien ra theo thi gian (d lieu chuoi thi
gian time series) hoac dien ra tai cung mot thi iem (d lieu thi iem hoac
d lieu cheo cross section) nham tm en mot quy luat ve moi quan he gia
16

chung. Moi quan he o c bieu dien thanh mot phng trnh (hay mo hnh) goi
la: phng trnh hoi quy ma da vao o, co the giai thch bang cac ket qua lng
hoa ve ban chat, ho tr cung co cac ly thuyet va d bao tng lai.
Theo thuat ng toan, phan tch hoi quy la s nghien cu mc o anh hng
cua mot hay nhieu bien so (bien giai thch hay bien oc lap independent
variable), en mot bien so (bien ket qua hay bien phu thuoc dependent
variable), nham d bao bien ket qua da vao cac gia tr c biet trc cua cac
bien giai thch.
Trong phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh cung nh trong nhieu lnh vc khac,
hoi quy la cong cu phan tch ay sc manh khong the thay the, la phng phap
thong ke toan dung e c lng, d bao nhng s kien xay ra trong tng lai
da vao quy luat qua kh.
a. Phng phap hoi quy n

Con goi la hoi quy n bien, dung xet moi quan he tuyen tnh gia 1 bien
ket qua va 1 bien giai thch hay la bien nguyen nhan (neu gia chung co moi
quan he nhan qua). Trong phng trnh hoi quy tuyen tnh, mot bien goi la: bien
phu thuoc; mot bien kia la tac nhan gay ra s bien oi, goi la bien oc lap.
Phng trnh hoi quy n bien (ng thang) co dang tong quat:
Y = a + bX

(1.1)

Trong o:
Y: bien so phu thuoc (dependent variable);
X: bien so oc lap (independent variable);
a: tung o goc hay nut chan (intercept);
b: o doc hay he so goc (slope).
Y trong phng trnh tren c hieu la Y c lng, ngi ta thng viet
^

di hnh thc co non Y

17

V du:
Phng trnh tong chi ph cua doanh nghiep co dang:
Y = a + bX
Trong o:
Y: Tong chi ph phat sinh trong ky;
X: Khoi lng san pham tieu thu;
a: Tong chi ph bat bien;
b: chi ph kha bien n v san pham;
bX: Tong chi ph kha bien.
Y
Y = a + bX
bX

a
X

o th 1.1. ng x cua cac loai chi ph

Nhan xet:
Vi phng trnh tren, tong chi ph Y chu anh hng trc tiep cua khoi
lng hoat ong X theo quan he ty le thuan. Khi X tang dan en Y tang; khi X
giam dan en Y giam;
Khi X = 0 th Y = a: Cac chi ph nh tien thue nha, chi ph khau hao, tien
lng thi gian va cac khoan chi ph hanh chnh khac la nhng chi ph bat bien,
khong chu anh hng t thay oi cua khoi lng hoat ong.
18

ng bieu dien a song song vi truc hoanh. Tr so a la he so co nh, the

hien chi ph toi thieu trong ky cua doanh nghiep (nut chan tren o th).
Tr so b quyet nh o doc (tc o nghieng cua ng bieu dien chi ph tren
o th);
ng tong chi ph Y = a + bX va ng chi ph kha bien bX song song vi
nhau v gia chung co cung chung mot o doc b (slope). Xuat phat iem cua
ng tong chi ph bat au t nut chan a (intercept = a) tren truc tung; trong khi
o, ng chi ph kha bien lai bat au t goc truc toa o v co nut chan bang 0
(intercept = 0). Hay noi mot cach khac, theo noi dung kinh te, khi khoi lng
hoat ong bang 0 (X=0) th chi ph kha bien cung se bang 0 (bX=0).
V du chi tiet:
Co tnh hnh ve chi ph hoat ong (tai khoan 641 va tai khoan 642: chi ph
ban hang va chi ph quan ly doanh nghiep) va doanh thu (tai khoan 511) tai mot
doanh nghiep c quan sat qua cac d lieu cua 6 ky kinh doanh nh sau: (n v
tnh: trieu ong).
Ky kinh doanh

Doanh thu ban hang

Chi ph hoat ong

1.510

323

1.820

365

2.104

412

2.087

410

1.750

354

2.021

403

Bang 1.5. Tnh hnh thc hien chi ph cua 6 ky kinh doanh

Yeu cau: Phan tch c cau chi ph hoat ong (bat bien, kha bien) cua doanh
nghiep.
Hng dan:
19

Yeu cau cua van e la thiet lap phng trnh chi ph hoat ong cua doanh
nghiep, tc i tm gia tr cac thong so a, b vi muc ch phat hien quy luat bien
oi cua chi ph nay trc s thay oi cua doanh thu, nham en viec d bao chi
ph cho cac quy mo hoat ong khac nhau hoac cho cac ky kinh doanh tiep theo.
Phng trnh chi ph hoat ong co dang:
Y = a + bX
Trong o:
a: Tong chi ph bat bien
b: chi ph kha bien 1 n v doanh thu
X: Doanh thu ban hang
Y: Tong chi ph hoat ong
Co nhieu phng phap thong ke tnh a, b nh:
Phng phap cc tr:

Con goi la phng phap can tren can di (High low method). Cu the
e tm tr so a, b cua phng trnh theo v du tren bang cach s dung cong thc
va cach tnh toan nh sau:
b=

Hieu so cua chi ph cao nhat va thap nhat

Hieu so cua doanh thu cao nhat va thap nhat

b=

412 - 323
= 0,15
2.104 - 1.510

(1.2)

Trong o:
Chi ph cc ai: 412
Chi ph cc tieu: 323
Doanh thu cc ai: 2.104
Doanh thu cc tieu: 1.510
T phng trnh: Y = a +bX, suy ra: a = Y bX;
Tai iem at doanh thu cao nhat (high), ta co:
20

a = 412 0,15 x 2.104 = 96,4

Tai iem at doanh thu thap nhat (low), ta co:
a = 323 0,15 x 1.510 = 96,4
Phng trnh chi ph kinh doanh a c thiet lap:
Y = 96,4 + 0,15X
Lu y:
Phng phap cc tr rat n gian, de tnh toan nhng thieu chnh xac
trong nhng trng hp d lieu bien ong bat thng.
Trng hp tap d lieu co so quan sat ln, viec tm thay nhng gia
tr cc tr gap kho khan va de nham lan, Microsoft Excel se cung cap
mot cach nhanh chong va chnh xac cac gia tr thong ke: Max, min,
range (=Max-Min) nh sau:
Lenh s dung trong Microsoft Excel: Tools / Data Analysis/ Descriptive
Statistics/ OK / Summary Statistics / OK.
Column1 (doanh thu)
Mean
Standard Error
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Sample Variance

Column2 (chi ph)

1.882,00 Mean
94,92 Standard Error
1.920,50 Median
#N/A

Mode

232,50 Standard Deviation

54.056,40 Sample Variance

Giai thch
377,83
14,80

Gia tr trung bnh

Sai so chuan

384,00

Trung v

#N/A

Yeu v

36,26
1.314,97

o lech chuan
Phng sai (mau)

Kurtosis

-0,49 Kurtosis

-1,30

o chop

Skewness

-0,76 Skewness

-0,58

o nghieng

594,00 Range

89,00

Khoang (mien)

Minimum

1.510,00 Minimum

323,00

Gia tr toi thieu

Maximum

2.104,00 Maximum

412,00

Gia tr toi a

Range

Sum

11.292,00 Sum

Count

6,00 Count

2.267,00
6,00

Tong cong gia tr

So lan quan sat

Bang 1.6. Ket qua cac ai lng ac trng thong ke trong Microsoft Excel
21

Neu trong Tools khong hien hanh san Data Analysis, ta dung lenh: Tools /
Add Ins / Analysis ToolPak / OK.
Giai thch cac thong so tnh c cu the tai cot chi ph:
Mean (gia tr trung bnh): la bnh quan so hoc (Average) cua tat ca cac gia

tr quan sat. c tnh bang cach lay tong gia tr cac quan sat (Sum) chia cho so
quan sat (Count).
n

X=

Xi

i =1
n

2.267
= 377,83
6

Standard Error (sai so chuan): dung e o o tin cay cua gia tr trung bnh

mau. c tnh bang cach lay o lech chuan (Standard Deviation) chia cho can
bac 2 cua so quan sat.

SX =

36,26
= 14,80
6

Ta co the noi: co kha nang 95% la gia tr trung bnh nam trong khoang cong
tr (+/-) 2 lan sai so chuan so vi gia tr trung bnh. Theo v du tren, o la
khoang:
377,83 ( 2 14,8 ) ;377,83 + ( 2 14,8 ) tc la khoang: [348,23 ; 407,43]
Da vao cong thc tren ta cung thay rang: vi o lech chuan khong oi,
n cang ln th S cang nho. Tc khoang dao ong se hep hn va o chnh xac se
cao hn. Ngi ta cung da vao cong thc nay e tnh so quan sat can thiet n.

Median (trung v): la gia tr nam v tr trung tam (khac vi gia tr trung
bnh Mean). c tnh bang cach:
Neu so quan sat n la so le: sap xep cac gia tr quan sat t nho en
ln, gia tr ng v tr chnh gia la so trung v.

22

 Neu so quan sat n la so chan: sap xep cac gia tr quan sat t nho en
ln, trung bnh cong cua 2 gia tr ng v tr chnh gia la so trung
v.
Theo v du tren, ta sap xep cac quan sat co gia tr t nho en ln: 323, 354,
365, 403, 410, 412.

Median =

365 + 403
= 384
2

Mode (yeu v): la gia tr xuat hien nhieu lan nhat. Theo v du tren, ta khong
co yeu v nao ca (#N/A)

Standard Deviation (o lech chuan): c xem nh la o lech trung bnh,

ai dien cho cac o lech (hieu so) gia cac gia tr quan sat thc va gia tr trung
bnh (Mean). o lech chuan la ai lng dung e o mc o phan tan (xa hay
gan) cua cac gia tr quan sat xung quanh gia tr trung bnh. c tnh bang cach
lay can bac 2 cua phng sai 2 (trung bnh cua bnh phng cac o lech: o
lech am negative deviation va o lech dng positive deviation).

= 2 = 1.314,97 = 36,26
( : oc la sigma )

Sample Variance (phng sai mau): la trung bnh cua bnh phng cac o
lech. Giong nh o lech chuan, no cung dung e xem mc o phan tan cac gia
tr quan sat thc xung quanh gia tr trung bnh. c tnh bang cach lay tong cac
bnh phng cac o lech (tong cac hieu so gia gia tr quan sat thc va gia tr
trung bnh) chia cho so quan sat tr 1 (n 1). Theo v du tren ta co:
n

2 =

( Xi X )2

i =1
n 1

= 1.314,97

( 2 : oc la sigma bnh phng)

23

Kurtosis (o chop): la he so ac trng thong ke dung e o mc o ong

nhat cua cac gia tr quan sat.
ng cong rat chop (very peaked): nhon ng, kurtosis > 3. Neu
ng bieu dien di ay mo ta phan phoi cac gia tr doanh thu, ta
co the noi rang a so cac gia tr doanh thu rat gan vi nhau (the same
revenue) du co mot so t mang gia tr rat nho hoac rat ln.

ng cong rat bet (very flat): phang nam, kurtosis < 3. Neu ng
bieu dien di ay mo ta phan phoi cac gia tr doanh thu, ta co the
noi rang a so cac gia tr doanh thu c trai eu t nho en ln
trong mot khoang rong hn.

Theo v du tren, o chop bang: - 1,30.

Skewness (o nghieng): la he so dung e o o nghieng khi phan phoi

xac suat khong can xng theo hnh chuong eu.

24