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Preface : Equity Evaluation of Top 3 IT Companies
Preface : Equity Evaluation of Top 3 IT Companies
Preface
The securities market in India has undergone a metamorphosis in the past decade.
The advents of new technologies and widespread awareness among the masses about the
activities of the securities have given new blood to the market, which underwent some bad
phases in the early nineties. The new reforms introduced aftermath of stock scam of 1992,
have brought about a significant transformation in the activities of that securities markets in
India.
Economic growth of any country lies on the basic infrastructure facilities available in
that country but how and by whom is this basic infrastructure provided to the people of the
country? The government of the country, which needs huge funds for it, meets these
infrastructure needs of the people. The government raises funds from the public and other
institutional investors by issuing securities in the form of T-bills, Government securities, etc.
but when the government invites private parties to participate in the infrastructure projects,
these companies too raise funds from the market which comprises individuals, corporates,
institutions etc.in the form of debt or equity. Further, the individuals will also be in need of
long term funds to meet their basic needs of owning an asset. Thus we find that the need for
the long term funds is all pervasive and the parties to the demand and supply of funds are
same. Funds are normally raised in the IPO market through the issue of shares, debentures
and bonds.
In India, though the capital market is denominated by the debt market, equity markets are
more attractive with a lot many participants. The government owned securities market
constitutes the majority of the total capital market of India. The securities market is being
classified in to primary or new issue market, and secondary market. The new issues of both
the government and private corporate sectors are floated in the primary market. The
secondary market provides liquidity to the outstanding securities or existing securities.
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The securities market no doubt plays a vital role in the distribution of economic prosperity in
a country over the masses when a large number of people invest their surpluses in securities.
The stock market is an integral part of organized capital market.
It facilitates the sale of initial and further issues, and subsequently provides liquidity to the
securities subscribed by the individual and institutional participants. The stock market
provides a place where ownership or creditorship securities are traded. The stock exchange
is a place where industrial securities like shares, debentures and bonds are traded.
In the early eighties, the public awareness of the stock market in India was at a very low
level, and the activities in the stock market confined only to the institutional investors but
the situation changed in the late eighties and the market activity reached its zenith in the
early nineties but the stock market scam of 1992 came as a major blow to the development
of market, and it called for a mammoth effort on the part of the regulatory authorities to
resurrect the lost confidence of the investors. The role of leading regulator of the securities
market in India namely SEBI, is remarkable for a span of few years it has brought about
organized structure of operations. It clearly defines the roles of various participants,
introduced innovative changes to meet their demands and to ensure transparency in the
functioning of the securities market and safety of investors money.
For investment purposes it is very important to know about security markets
especially equity market. Thus the present work involves the study of equity market, about
its evolution and its structure the way the trading takes place and its settlement process and
also evaluating the probable equity prices of top IT Companies namely Wipro, Tata
Consultancy Services, Infosys Technologies, Satyam Computers, and Patni Computers for
the future period. The equity prices will be determined after careful analysis of the Balance
sheets of last five years of all the companies and also by adopting various models.
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CONTENTS
1. Executive Summary
7-13
2. Introduction
14
3. Organization Profile
15-16
4.Stock Market
17-21
5.Global Economy
22-23
6.Indian Economy
24-32
7.IT Industry
33-36
8.Data Analysis
37-69
a) Wipro
37-47
b) Infosys
48-59
c) TCS
60-69
70-81
9. Findings
82-83
10. Recommendations
84
11.Bibilography
85
Annexure
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1) Ratio formulas
85
2) Beta valuation
86-107
Executive Summary
Equity markets, the world over, grew at a great speed in the decade
of nineties. After bear markets of the late eighties, the world markets saw one of the largest
ever bull markets of more than ten years. The market capitalization of all the listed
companies in the world market increased from US $9,399,659 million in1990 to US
$32,222,750 million in 2000; the market capitalization thus increased to more than 3.4 times
in 10 years. The increase of the market capitalization in the developing countries was even
more marked, with an increase to 4.3 times the market capitalization in 1990. the world
market capitalization as a percentage of the world GDP also increased from 48% in 90 to
105.% in 2000. Thus, the growth of equity market has outpaced the GDP growth of the
world. However due to recession in the world economy, the world market capitalization
decreased to US $27,818,618 million during 2001. The spectacular growth was partly due to
increase in the number of listed companies, which grew from 25,424 in 90 to 45,645 in
2001.
Indian stock markets have turned extremely buoyant with the Sensex, the
bellwether index of the Indian stock markets zooming sky high to a peak of 20000- a feat
which could not have even been imagined by anyone just one year ago. Surprisingly, while
engineering, steel, cement, oil and gas, construction and power among others have shot up
into prominence, the information technology sector the proud mascot of modern resurgent
India have started loosing their shine. If we take the present fiscal year, Sensex has given
return of about 45% since April 2007 till now; IT index has shown a loss of around 6%. So
the present study would be to know the reason for the same and also to know the future
prices of these stocks. Hence Equity Valuation of these companies have been undertaken by
taking in to consideration five years data pertaining to these companies so as to find out the
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FINDINGS
1) The Indian economy is growing very fast. Its contribution to the worlds GDP is
around 7.7%. Next only to China and U.S. This revels the fact that it will have positive
impact on all the industries of the country.
2) The growth of IT Industry has been commendable in the recent past. It has been the
fastest growing industry but the stocks performance revels a different story. The last 16
months performance has been very disappointing. The main reasons being stock
markets high volatility, Rupee appreciation and U.S. slowdown. In such case it can
adopt the following remedies.
3) The fundamental analysis of the companies revels the following
a) The companies are fundamentally very strong. There has been full utilization of
the resources, except for TCS very there was a lack of liquidity in the year
2004
b) The earnings of the companies have been very good.
c) When a comparison is made between the three companies, Infosys stands
fundamentally very strong. it has outperformed in all the aspects be it, the
ROE, EPS, book value and even in terms of liquidity. The company having no
Debt in its capital structure has been earning revenues higher than the revenues
earned by Wipro and TCS.
d) The next company better in terms of fundamentals is TCS. It has performed
better than Wipro in all the aspects of fundamentals.
4) The stock market performance also depicts the same picture. It is Infosys, which is in
the lead followed by TCS and Wipro.
5) The most risky stocks among the three has been TCS share prices having a Beta value
of . 0.91 followed by Wipro which has got beta of 0.79 and Infosys is less riskier as it
has got beta of 0.68
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Model
Discount Model
Multi Period
Two Stage Model
Wipro
Rs.605
Rs.731
Rs.1325
TCS
Rs.1508
Rs.1859
Rs.1745
Infosys
Rs.2385
Rs.2843
Rs.1453
The above table shows the expected future equity price of respective shares. It can be
observed from the above table that
1) The Dividend Discount Model, which speaks about the future, expected price is Rs.572 in
case of Wipro. It means that stock will perform better in future compared to its present
value.
2) The generalized Model, which speaks about future, expected price in forthcoming years is
valued at Rs.694. Which is again higher than its previous value of Rs.572.
3) The Multi period model, which indicates the intrinsic value of share in future, is about
Rs.1085 in next 8 years, which will be lower than its share price. It shows a good sign as a
lesser intrinsic value compared to market price indicates that the stock has got great
potential to perform in future and investment in such stock would be profitable.
4) The same can be noticed in case of TCS and Infosys. There market prices going to
Rs.1508 in case of TCS and Rs.2385 in case of Infosys. The intrinsic value of these stocks is
also lesser compared to their market price, indicating better performance in future.
5) A comparison between these stocks reveals that, Infosys shares will perform better
compared to TCS and Infosys. The reason is that the company is fundamentally very strong.
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RECOMMENDATION
1) In spite of fall in the value of share prices in the recent past, I would definitely
recommend the investors to invest in these companies. Reasons being the companies
are financially very strong.
2) The current volatility in the market is due to Rupee appreciation, and
U.S.slowdown but the companies have taken several measures to see that these two
problems are resolved. They have diversified their business and also they have
hedged against the rupee appreciation. So investment in these stocks would not lead
to loss.
3) The recommendation would be to invest for a longer period of time. At least for 5
years as they would yield better returns.
4) As the intrinsic value of all the three stocks are lesser compared to their market
price so the suggestion would be hold the stocks if they have bought or buy the
shares as they will definitely give good returns in the future.
5) If a choice has to be made among the three then it would be better to choose
Infosys as the option, as it is fundamentally very strong company and it has got
higher value in market currently and it will also give better returns in the future
compared to other two stocks.
6) It is advisable for the investor to go through the fundamental of the companies
before investing and avoid investing based on the market sentiments, as they would
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trade or speculate because share market is not a casino. And dont panic if the values
of shares are coming down, as it is only temporary.
Equity Valuation
Equity valuation in recent years has become one of the important aspects in
finance field. Today Equity Valuation has received much attention and it is the need of the
hour. Equity Valuation is a way of determining the value of equity share of the company. To
evaluate the equity price of any company the most important steps to be taken are
To study the Global Economy: To know the growth of the world economy and
Indias contribution in the worlds GDP.
To study the Indian Economy: To assess the track record of Indian Economy so as to
know at what rate the economy is growing and to see impact of economy on the
industries and particularly to IT sector.
To Study about IT sector: To know how the industry as a whole is performing so as
to assess its impact on the companies. To know where does the industry stands in its
life cycle to know whether the industry is growing or matured, which will tell us
whether the company is performing poorly or the industry itself is stagnated.
To fundamentally assess the companies: to study the performance of the companies
for five years so as to evaluate the performance critically. The fundamental analysis
includes analysis of Balance sheet and Profit and Loss account of these companies
and to calculate the key ratios, which will help in assessing the value anchor, which
gives the expected market price for the next year.
Lastly assessing the equity price of company through Equity Models. The models
used in the study are Dividend Discount Model, Multi period Model, Two stage
Model.
Dividend Discount Model, which is used to assess the market, price of share for the
next year.
Multi Period Model is used to assess the expected market price of share for N
number of years.
Two Stage Model is used to evaluate the intrinsic value of share in future.
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This is how the equity is valued. Equity Valuation is becoming increasingly important as
India is operating in global scenario where it becomes important to know what exactly is the
value of company and it is also becoming very important for analysts and also for investor
who would like to know the value of the equity before investing. Equity valuation
Oswal
Financial
Services
Ltd.,
consists
of
four
companies.
Motilal Oswal Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. is our Investment Banking arm with
collective experience of over 100 years in investment banking/corporate banking and
advisory
services
Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker (P) Ltd. has been providing commodity trading
facilities and facilities and related products and services since 2004.
Motilal Oswal Venture Capital Advisors Private Limited has launched the India Business
Excellence Fund (IBEF), a US$100 mn India focused Private Equity Fund.
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSt) is a leading research and advisory based stock
broking house of India, with a dominant position in both institutional equities and wealth
management. Our services include equities, derivatives, e-broking, portfolio management,
mutualfunds, commodities, IPOs and Depository Services.
In March 2006, AQ Research, a firm that analyses the accuracy of a brokers research call,
declared
Motilal
Oswal
Securities
the
best
research
team
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Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. was founded in 1987 as a small sub-broking unit, with just
two people running the show. Focus on customer-first-attitude, ethical and transparent
business practices, respect for professionalism, research-based value investing and
implementation of cutting-edge technology have enabled us to blossom into an almost
Our institutional business unit has relationships with almost all leading foreign institutional
investors
(FIIs)
in
the
US,
UK,
Hong
Kong
and
Singapore.
The retail business unit provides equity investment solutions to more than 3,85,000 investors
through 1300 Business locations spanning over 425 cities. A force of over 2000 employees
and over 808 Business Associates provides these solutions. We provide advice-based
broking (equities and derivatives), portfolio management services (PMS), e-Broking,
depository services, commodities trading, IPO and mutual fund investment.
Companys unique Wealth Creation Study, authored by Mr. Raamdeo Agrawal, Managing
Director, is now in its eleventh year. Investors keenly await this annual study for the wealth
of information it has on how companies created wealth during the preceding five years.
The organization finds its strength in its team of young, talented and confident individuals.
Qualified professionals carry out different functions under the able leadership of its
promoters, Mr. Motilal Oswal and Mr. Raamdeo Agrawal. Stringent employee selection
process, focus on continuous training and adoption of best management practices drive the
quest to achieving our Core Purpose and Values
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Stock Market
Capital occupies a position so dominant to the economic theory of production and
distribution that it is natural to assume that it should occupy at least an equally important
place in the theory and practice of economic growth. The subject whether approached
historically or analytically or from the standpoint of policy, it is the process of capital
accumulation that occupies the front of the stage. It is usually implied that economic growth
and capital accumulation with a high positive and significant correlation and additions to the
stock of capital can provoke and facilitate faster rate of growth even under the circumstances
which can be described as shortage of capital.
Capital market means the market for all the financial instruments, short term and long term
as also commercial, industrial and government paper. The capital market deals with capital.
The capital market is a market where borrowing and lending of long term funds takes place.
Capital markets deal in both debt and equity. The governments both central and state raise
money in the capital market, through the issue of government securities. Capital markets
refer to all the institutes and mechanisms of raising medium and long-term funds, through
various instruments available like shares, debentures, bonds etc.
Corporate both in the private sector as well as in the public sector raise thousands of crores
of rupees in these markets. The government, through Reserve Bank of India, as well as
financial institutions also raises a lot of money from these markets. Example of welldeveloped markets is The Global depository and American depository.
Page 14
The supply in this market comes from saving from different sectors of the economy. These
come from the following sources:
1. Individuals
2. Corporate
3. Governments
4. Foreign countries
5. Banks
6. Provident funds
7. Financial institutions.
Moreover the establishment of National Stock Exchange and Bombay Stock Exchange has
been turning point in the working of capital markets. Even tough BSE is the oldest
exchange in the country the performance of NSE has been commendable. NSE started in the
year 1994 and BSE in 1857.BSE trade for the top thirty companies in India where as NSE
trades for top fifty companies. The establishment time, and number of companies traded
differs so as their indices points and turn over. There has been considerable change in the
percentage change that takes place in these exchanges. They never go parallel. Recently the
RBI has allowed participation of individuals in the government securities markets. This
move is likely to open new avenues for investment to individuals. Moreover the Finance
Ministry has announced the removal of income tax on dividend in the hands of the receiver
and no capital gains tax on investments made in equity after 1.3.03 and held for one year.
.
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The 1960s was characterized by wars and droughts in the country, which led to
bearish trends. These trends were aggravated by the ban in 1969 on forward trading and
'badla', technically called 'contracts for clearing.' 'Badla' provided a mechanism for carrying
forward positions as well as borrowing funds. Financial institutions such as LIC and GIC
helped to revive the sentiment by emerging as the most important group of investors. The
first mutual fund of India, the Unit Trust of India (UTI) came into existence in 1964.
In the 1970s, badla trading was resumed under the disguised form of 'hand-delivery
contracts-A group.' This revived the market. However, the capital market received another
severe setback on July 6, 1974, when the government promulgated the Dividend Restriction
Ordinance, restricting the payment of dividend by companies to 12 per cent of the face value
or one-third of the profits of the companies that can be distributed as computed under
section 369 of the Companies Act, whichever was lower. This led to a slump in market
capitalization at the BSE by about 20 per cent overnight and the stock market did not open
for nearly a fortnight. Later came buoyancy in the stock markets when the multinational
companies (MNCs) were forced to dilute their majority stocks in their Indian ventures in
favour of the Indian public under FERA, 1973. Several MNCs opted out of India.
The 1980s witnessed an explosive growth of the securities market in India, with millions of
investors suddenly discovering lucrative opportunities. Many investors jumped into the
stock markets for the first time. The government's liberalization process initiated during the
mid-1980s, spurred this growth. Participation by small investors, speculation, defaults, ban
on badla, and resumption of badla continued. Convertible debentures emerged as a popular
instrument of resource mobilization in the primary market. The introduction of public sector
bonds and the successful mega issues of Reliance Petrochemicals and Larsen and Toubro
gave a new lease of life to the primary market..
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The 1991-92 securities scam revealed the inadequacies of and inefficiencies in the financial
system. It was the scam, which prompted a reform of the equity market. The Indian stock
market witnessed a sea change in terms of technology and market prices. Technology
brought radical changes in the trading mechanism. The Bombay Stock Exchange was
subject to nationwide competition by two new stock exchanges-the National Stock
Exchange, set up in 1994, and Over the Counter Exchange of India, set up in 1992. The
National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC) and National Securities Depository
Limited (NSDL) were set up in April 1995 and November 1996 respectively form improved
clearing and settlement and dematerialized trading. The Securities Contracts (Regulation)
Act, 1956 was amended in 1995-96 for introduction of options trading. Moreover, rolling
settlement was introduced in January 1998 for the dematerialized segment of all companies.
With automation and geographical spread, stock market participation increased.
In the late 1990s, the Information Technology (IT) scrips were dominant on the Indian
bourses. These scrips included Infosys, Wipro, and Satyam. They were a part of the favorite
scrips of the period, also known as 'New Economy' scrips, along with telecommunications
and media scrips. The new economy companies are knowledge intensive unlike the old
economy companies that were asset intensive.
The Indian capital market entered the twenty-first century with the Ketan Parekh scam. As a
result of this scam, badla was discontinued from July 2001 and rolling settlement was
introduced in all scrips. Trading of futures commenced from June 2000, and Internet trading
was permitted in February 2000.
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Energy
Yearly electricity - production: 15,850,000 GWh (2003 est.), 14,850,000 GWh (2001 est.)
Yearly electricity - consumption: 14,280,000 GWh (2003 est.), 13,930,000 GWh (2001
est.)
Oil- production: 79.65 million bbl/day (2003 est.), 75.46 million barrel/day (12,000,000
m/d) (2001)
Oil - consumption: 80.1 million bbl/day (2003 est.), 76.21 million barrel/day (12,120,000
m/d) (2001)
Oil - proved reserves: 1.025 trillion barrel (163 km) (2001 est.)
Natural gas- production: 2,569 km (2001 est.)
Natural gas - consumption: 2,556 km (2001 est.)
Natural gas - proved reserves: 161,200 km
Cross-border
Yearly exports: $6.6 trillion (f.o.b., 2002 est.)
Exports - commodities: the whole range of industrial and agricultural goods and services
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INDIAN ECONOMY
The economy of India when measured in USDexchange-rate terms, is the twelfth largestin
the world, with a GDP of US $1.25 trillion (2008).It is the third largest in terms of
purchasing power parity India is the second fastest growingmajor economy in the world,
with a GDP growth rate of 9.4% for the fiscal year 20062007. However, India's huge
population has a per capita income of $4,542 at PPP and $1,089 in nominal terms (revised
2007 estimate).The World Bankclassifies India as a low-income economy.
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Public expenditure
India's public expenditure is classified as development expenditure, comprising central plan
expenditure and central assistance and non-development expenditures; these categories can
each be divided into capital expenditure and revenue expenditure.
India's non-development revenue expenditure has increased nearly fivefold in 2003
04 since 199091 and more than tenfold since 19851986. Interest payments are the single
largest item of expenditure and accounted for more than 40% of the total non-development
expenditure in the 200304 budgets. Defense expenditure increased fourfold during the
same period and has been increasing due to growing tensions in the region, the expensive
dispute with Pakistan over Jammu and Kashmir and an effort to modernize the military.
Administrative expenses are compounded by a large salary and pension bill, which rises
periodically due to revisions in wages, dearness allowance etc. subsidies on food, fertilizers,
education and petroleum and other merit and non-merit subsidies account are not only
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The tax reforms, initiated in 1991, have sought to rationalise the tax structure and increase
compliance by taking steps in the following directions:
Reducing the rates of individual and corporate income taxes, excises, customs and making it
more progressive
Reducing exemptions and concessions
Simplification of laws and procedures
Introduction of Permanent account number to track monetary transactions
21 of the 29 states introduced Value added tax(VAT) on April 1, 2005 to replace the complex
and multiple sales tax system
The non-tax revenues of the central government come from fiscal services, interest receipts,
public sector dividends, etc., while the non-tax revenues of the States are grants from the
central government, interest receipts, dividends and income from general, economic and
social services.
Inter-State share in the federal tax pool is decided by the recommendations of the Finance
Commission to the President.
General budget
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Currency system
Rupee
The Rupee is the only legal tender accepted in India. The exchange rate as of October
13, 2007 is about 39.18 to a US dollar, 55.56 to a Euro, and 79.82 to a UK pound. The
Indian rupee is accepted as legal tender in the neighboring Nepal and Bhutan, both of which
peg their currency to that of the Indian rupee. The rupee is divided into 100 paise. The
highest-denomination banknote is the 1,000 rupee note; the lowest-denomination coin in
circulation is the 25 paise coin.
Exchange rates
Under the fixed exchange rate system, the value of the rupee was linked to the British pound
sterling until 1946, and after independence, 30% of India's foreign trade was determined in
pound sterling. In 1975, as per the floating exchange rate system, the value of the rupee was
pegged to a basket of currencies and was tightly controlled by the Reserve Bank of India.
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Financial institutions
India inherited several institutions, such as the civil services, Reserve Bank of India,
railways, etc., from its British rulers. Mumbai serves as the nation's commercial capital, with
the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock
Exchange (NSE) located here. The headquarters of many financial institutions are also
located in the city.
The RBI, the country's central bank was established on 1 April 1935. It serves as the nation's
monetary authority, regulator and supervisor of the financial system, manager of exchange
control and as an issuer of currency. The RBI is governed by a central board, headed by a
governor who is appointed by the Central government of India.
The BSE Sensex or the BSE Sensitive Index is a value-weighted index composed of 30
companies with April 1979 as the base year (100). These companies have the largest and
most actively traded stocks and are representative of various sectors, on the Exchange. They
account for around one-fifth of the market capitalisation of the BSE. The Sensex is generally
regarded as the most popular and precise barometer of the Indian stock markets.
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Industry
Per capita GDP (at PPP) of South Asian economies versus those of South Korea, as a
percentage of the US India is fourteenth in the world in factory output. They together
account for 27.6% of the GDP and employ 17% of the total workforce. However, about onethird of the industrial labour force is engaged in simple household manufacturing only.
Economic reforms brought foreign competition, led to privatisation of certain
public sector industries, opened up sectors hitherto reserved for the public sector and led to
an expansion in the production of fast-moving consumer good Post-liberalisation, the Indian
private sector, which was usually run by oligopolies of old family firms and required
political connections to prosper was faced with foreign competition, including the threat of
cheaper Chinese imports. It has since handled the change by squeezing costs, revamping
management, focusing on designing new products and relying on low labour costs and
technology.
34 Indian companies have been listed in the Forbes Global 2000 ranking for 2007. ] The 10
leading companies are
World
rank
239
258
326
399
494
536
800
Industry
Company
Revenue
Assets Market
(billion Value
(billion)
3.46
26.98
38.19
2.11
21.75
42.62
1.24
156.37 12.35
1.11
22.68
10.92
1.31
0.54
0.91
17.25
62.13
7.06
26.06
16.72
10.16
(billion
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Profits
(billion
Page 26
India Limited
Tata Consultancy Software
Svcs
Services
Tata Steel
Materials
Infosys
Software
Technologies
Services
&
&
2.98
0.67
1.93
26.27
4.54
0.84
4.61
5.80
2.14
0.55
2.09
26.19
Services
India is fifteenth in services output. It provides employment to 23% of work force, and it is
growing fast, growth rate 7.5% in 19912000 up from 4.5% in 195180. It has the largest
share in the GDP, accounting for 53.8% in 2005 up from 15% in 1950.Business services
(information technology, information technology enabled services, business process
outsourcing) are among the fastest growing sectors contributing to one third of the total
output of services in 2000. The growth in the IT sector is attributed to increased
specialisation, availability of a large pool of low cost, but highly skilled, educated and fluent
English-speaking workers (a legacy of British Colonialism) on the supply side and on the
demand side, increased demand from foreign consumers interested in India's
service exports or those looking to outsource their operations. India's IT industry, despite
contributing significantly to its balance of payments, accounted for only about 1% of the
total GDP or 1/50th of the total services.
Page 27
relations:
Until the liberalisation of 1991, India was largely and intentionally isolated from the world
markets, to protect its fledging
economy and to achieve self-reliance. Foreign trade was subject to import tariffs, export
taxes and quantitative restrictions, while foreign direct investment was restricted by upperlimit equity participation, restrictions on technology transfer, export obligations
and government approvals; these approvals were needed for nearly 60% of new FDI in the
industrial sector. The restrictions ensured that FDI averaged only around $200M annually
between 1985 and 1991; a large percentage of the capital flows consisted of foreign aid,
commercial borrowing and deposits of non-resident Indians.
India's exports were stagnant for the first 15 years after independence, due to the
predominance of tea, jute and cotton manufactures, demand for which was generally
inelastic. Imports in the same period consisted predominantly of machinery, equipment and
raw materials, due to nascent industrialisation. Since liberalisation, the value of India's
international trade has become more broad-based and has risen to Rs. 63,080,109 crores in
200304 from Rs.1,250 crores in 195051 India's major trading partners are China, the US,
the UAE, the UK, Japan and the EU. The exports during April 2007 were $12.31 billion up
by 16% and import were $17.68 billion with an increase of 18.06% over the previous year.
India is a founding-member of General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) since 1947
and its successor, the World Trade Organization. While participating actively in its general
council meetings, India has been crucial in voicing the concerns of the developing world.
For instance, India has continued its opposition to the inclusion of such matters as labour
and environment issues and other non-tariff barriers into the WTO policies.
Balance of payments
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 28
Page 29
A number of changes were approved on the FDI policy to remove the caps in most
sectors. Restrictions will be relaxed in sectors as diverse as civil aviation,
constructiondevelopment, industrial parks, petroleum and natural gas, commodity
exchanges, credit-information services and mining. But this still leaves an unfinished agenda
of permitting greater foreign investment in politically sensitive areas such as insurance and
retailing. FDI inflows into India reached a record US$19.5bn in fiscal year 2006/07 (AprilMarch), according to the government's Secretariat for Industrial Assistance. This was more
than double the total of US$7.8bn in the previous fiscal year. Between April and September
2007, FDI inflows were US$8.2bn.
The IT Industry
The Indian software industry has grown from a mere US $ 150 million in 1991-92 to a
staggering US $ 5.7 billion (including over $4 billion worth of software exports) in 19992000. No other Indian industry has performed so well against the global competition
.
The annual growth rate of Indias software exports has been consistently over 50
percent since 1991. As per the projections made by the National Association of Software
and Services Companies (NASSCOM) for 2000-2001 (April 1, 2000 - March 31, 2001),
Indias software exports would be around $ 6.3 billion, in addition to $ 2.5 billion in
domestic sale.
The growth story:
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 30
97-98
200001
200203
200405
200607
IT services Exports
The almost three-decade-old Indian IT industry crossed the $25billion
mark. The top tier Indian firms-TCS, Infosys, Wipro , HCL, firmly established themselves
among the leading global players in IT services.
Growing products market:
Software products: the story of Indian software products was that of renewed success. At $
1.7 billion, the top 10 Indian software product companies showed very strong growth.
International products characterize the market, barring a few. The key trend was reduction in
piracy and the acceptance of the value of software.
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 31
73%
3%
21%
3%
north america
europe
asia
others
62%
Total sales:
Crore.
5%
4%
29%
europe
north america
asia
others
Rs.63749
Concern Areas:
The share market clearly believes that there are: Indias big software four- Infosys,
TCS, Wipro, and Satyam has seen values fall by 15 to 20%. The main reasons being
slowdown of U.S. economy and strengthening of the Rupee.This has hit Indian software
exporters hard because most software companies bill most of their clients in dollar terms,
and U.S. accounts for about 60 % of the work that the Indian companies do. Hence the share
prices of these IT companies have seen a sharp fall.
Page 32
Profitability puzzle
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Infosys
TCS
Wipro
satyam
Q3FY08
Q2FY08
Q1FY08
Q4FY07
Q3FY07
Q2FY07
Q1FY07
Q4FY06
HCL
The graph shows the operating profit margin of these top companies in various quarters. It
can be seen fro the graph that the profit margin of these companies has been very volatile
due to causes mentioned above.
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Remedies
Page 33
# Hedging risk
#Pressure on volumes
#Margin pressures
#U.S. slowdown
# Geographical diversification
Value picks
Among the Indian IT pack, it is mainly the large cap companies, which can
boast of a diverse global presence and a varied client mix, which could help them weather
any slowdown in demand of IT services. Thus Infosys, TCS, Wipro and Satyam remain the
top picks. After a hefty beating over the past few months, their valuations are down to the
lowest range of the respective historical price earning multiple bands. This means that most
of the bad news surrounding the prospects of these companies have already factored in. the
companies indicate a cautious stance, in their top and bottom line guidance going forward.
indicators of further any loss and which is not yet discounted in the share price, will perhaps
be visible in the next quarter results.
Company Analysis
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 34
Wipro Ltd
Wipro started 60 years back as a company manufacturing vegetable oil and today it is
worlds one of the leading technology service provider. Wipro Technologies is a
global services provider delivering technology-driven business solutions that meet the
strategic objectives of clients. Wipro has 40+ Centers of Excellence that create solutions
around specific needs of industries. Wipro delivers unmatched business value to customers
through a combination of process excellence, quality frameworks and service delivery
innovation. - 8,000 shares subscribed for by directors, etc. 9,000 shares offered at par to
public in February-March 1946.
Business Units
1)
2)
3)
4)
Page 35
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 36
The above picture shows the trend in the revenue earned from global IT services and
products. The growth has been manifold .
The above graph shows the growth in operating income in terms of crore.
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 37
140
120
100
wipro
price
S &P
CnX
80
60
40
ch
ar
M
Fe
n
Ja
c
de
N
ov
O
ct
Se
p
Au
g
ly
Ju
ne
Ju
ay
M
Ap
r
il
20
0
It can be seen from the graph that in the year 2005-06 the performance of stock was in
accordance with its index. I.e. there was less volatility in shares performance when
compared.
From the above graph it can be seen that the performance of stock against its index is more
volatile. This is the period where the stocks started loosing their value.
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 38
Particulars
2003
2004
2005
2006
Share Capital
465.128
465.52
1407.14
2852
2918
32838
34610
47529
63277
93077
Shareholders fund
33303.128.
35075.52
48936.14
66129
95995
Loan funds
6974.77
1006.88
620
758
3856
Capital employed
34000.824
36082.79
49557.40
66887
99851
Fixed assets
65915.10
79472.9
11582
21683
37962
Investments
14407.161
24560.33
28595.11
30812
33249
13002.15
35751.7
93802.9
14392
28640
Total
34000.824
36082.79
49557.40
66887
99851
The table shows the balance sheet of Wipro Ltd. The table
contains the data of 5 years.i.e. From 2003 to 2007.the performance of
these years have been analyzed as follows.
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 39
Share capital
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
The company had raised funds through IPO for the first time in the year 1946. the total
capital being 1700000,the number of shares being 17000. Company there after has not raised
money through IPO. it has increased the capital either through stock split or through bonus
issue.
The graph shows the trend of share capital .it can be observed from the graph
that in the year 2003 and 2004 the capital has been kept constant later on it has been
increased to 1407, by the issue of bonus issue in the ratio of 2:1 and the face value being
Rs.2. The capital was further increased to Rs. 2852 Mn in the year 2006by the allotment of
equity shares pursuant to exercise of stock options. The same thing continued in the year
wherein the capital was further increased to Rs.2918.
Loan Funds
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
It can be noticed from the graph that there has been considerable increase in the loan funds
in the year 2007 compared with 2006. the reason being borrowing from banks, term loans
and also from financial institution have been increased in the year.
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 40
2004
2005
2006
2007
Considerable increase in the capital employed as the company has expanded its business and
have also acquired some of the companies in last few years. It has therefore increased its
share capital by the way f issuing bonus shares and stock splits and also by making huge
investments.
Investment
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
The graph shows the investment pattern of Wipro Ltd. Investments has been made in plant
and machinery, equipment and in many other fixed assets. Investment has also being made
in to money market instruments, mutual funds and in many other instruments of the stock
market.
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 41
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Net sales
410324
525967
732669
107566
152945
25523
34711
47832
71484
102420
Gross profit
14324
17885
25434
36082
50525
Operating expenses
5873.78
7037.71
8108
12268
17440
PBIT
9635.34
10857.64
17325.91
23814
33085
Interest
29304
3517
5568
35
124
PBT
9606
10821
17570
23780
32961
TAX
1473.71
1673.67
2622.02
3391
3868
PAT
8132.32
9148.80
14948
20388
29093
Dividend
2325.64
6750.02
3517.86
7129
8697
Retained earnings
7869.97
15339
10936
12545
19456
The report shows that there has been considerable increase in the net sales as many
acquisitions took place in the past two to three years. And there has also been increase in
operating profit and the net profit. Dividend has been declared every year. It was in the year
2005 where there has been a decline in the dividend declared and in the next two years there
has been considerable increase in it.
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 42
2003
Current ratio
2.90
Debt to equity 0.20
ROE
24.41
Book
143
value/share
EPS
36.81
Bonus
1
adjustment
factor
P/E ratio
36.81
P/B ratio
4.19
Retention
0.96
ratio
Dividend per 4.2
share
2004
1.19
0.28
26.08
180
2005
2.91
0.30
30.04
695
2006
1.44
038
30.08
463
2007
1.67
0.26
30.03
657
39.56
1
21.48
3.02
14.37
2.02
19.92
1.02
39.52
5
0.167
64.80
0.96
0.73
29.02
1.28
0.61
20.38
0.92
0.66
6.4
CAGR of sales
1/4
CAGR of EPS
1/4
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 43
2006
107566
71484
12268
35
3391
2007
152945
102420
17440
124
3868
% Increase
42%
43%
42%
354%
14%
2008
217181.9
146460.6
70721.3
24764.8
45956.5
11489
34467
= 3446700000
= Rs.23.89
144,233,782
= 0.66
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
= 0.34
Page 44
* 30.05
=19.83%
=21.25
0.2143 - 0.1983
Value anchor
Value anchor gives the expected price of share for next year.
Expected EPS * Expected P/E ratio
23.89
*21.25
= Rs. 507
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 45
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 46
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 47
2002
- Receives Motilal Oswal Award for Wealth Creation for 1996-2001
- Mr. Nandan Nilekani becomes the new CEO of the company. Mr. Narayanamurthy
assumes the role of Chairman & Chief Mentor
- Adjudged best Indian employer in a study conducted by Hewitt Associates and Business
Today
- Infosys Tech bags prestigious Corporate University Exchange Excellence Award for 2002
- NASDAQ selects Infosys as the best value reporter
Operations
- RBI permits 100% FII purchase in Infosys
- N R Narayana Murthy receives the Ernst & Young Entrepreneur of the Year award for
2002
- Company declares that it has won Most Admired Knowledge Enterprises (MAKE) award
in the Asia region for 2002
- Implements `Balanced Score Card' (BSC), a unique concept that entails establishment of
strategic objectives and a measurement system, which not only targets on financial measures
but also non-financial measures
2004
-Infosys greets Karnataka Bank for deploying Finacle
-Nandan Nilekani ranks 35th in the world business leaders
-Infosys gets ICAI award for the year '03
-Infosys completes five yrs on NASDAQ
-Infosys Chief Narayana Murthy joins NDTV Board
-Comes out with a bonus issue in the ratio of 3:1
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 48
Infosys Share prices v/s its indices for the year 2005-06
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
indices
mar
feb
jan
dec
nov
oct
sep
aug
july
jun
may
Apr
infosys
For 2006-07
5000
4000
3000
indices
2000
infosys
1000
0
Apr May jun
jul
Nov Dec
From the above graph it can be seen that prices of shares are more volatile. We can notice
that the share prices have decreased over a period.
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 49
The above-mentioned charts are income, exports, PAT of the company. The values have
increased over a period of time.
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 50
Balance sheet
(Rs.in crores)
2007
Particulars
2003
2004
2005
2006
Share Capital
33.12
33.22
135.29
138
286
1954.75
2387.09
4110.18
5507
9714
Shareholders fund
1987.87
2420.31
4245.47
5645
10000
Loan funds
872.78
833.12
996.26
1252
1162
Capital employed
2860.65
3253.43
5241.73
6897
11162
Fixed assets
772.72
970.30
1494.42
2133
3107
Investments
33.20
1027.38
1328.70
876
839
2054.73
1255.75
2418.61
3888
7216
Total
2860.65
3253.43
5241.73
6897
11162
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 51
2004
2005
2006
2007
2005
2006
2007
ratio of 1:1.
2004
The Reserves and Surplus of the company have increased over a period of time. The
increase in Reserves and Surplus is due to increase in Profits of the company through which
substantial amount has been contributed to Reserves and Surpluses.
Investments
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 52
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
The investment has increased to a greater level from mere 23 crore in 2003 to Rs.1200
crore in 2005 and later it was again saw a decrease of 400 crores. The company has
significantly invested in different types of securities, which yield better returns.
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Infosys has always enjoyed better liquidity position. It has got better position compared to
their competitors Wipro, Infosys. Its has increased its liquidity position with increase in its
obligation.
Page 53
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Net sales
3622.69
4760.89
6859.66
9028
13149
1813.30
2495.31
3654.93
4887
7278
Gross profit
1809.39
2265.58
3204.73
4141
5871
Operating expenses
537.25
681.93
879.62
1152
1646
PBIT
1272.04
1583.65
2325.11
2989
4225
Interest
188
230
268.22
409
469
PBT
1158.9
1470.47
2056.89
2580
3756
TAX
201
227
325
303
352
PAT
953
1243
1904
2421
3783
Dividend
178.81
862
309.80
1238
649
Retained earnings
766.82
200
190
242
378
The report shows that there has been considerable increase in the net sales as many
acquisitions took place in the past two to three years. And there has also been increase in
operating profit and the net profit. Dividend has been declared every year. It was in the year
2005 where there has been a decline in the dividend declared and in the next two years there
has been considerable increase in it.
Page 54
Particulars
2003
Current ratio
2.90
Debt to equity --ROE
0.47
Book
53
value/share
EPS
18
Bonus
1
adjustment
factor
P/E ratio
28.33
P/B ratio
Retention
0.8
ratio
Dividend per 5
share
2004
1.19
--0.51
61
2005
2.91
--0.44
97
2006
1.44
--0.42
125
2007
1.67
--0.37
195
23
1
34
4
44
1.02
67
2.07
26.72
25
0.66
32.37
23
0.88
33.53
24
0.79
29.48
10
0.62
6.6
9.50
10.5
11.50
CAGR of sales
1/4
-1
CAGR of EPS
1/4
-1
Page 55
2006
9028
4887
1152
409
303
2007
13149
7289
1646
469
352
% Increase/
45%
49%
42%
14%
16%
2008
19066.05
10857.63
8208.42
2337.32
5871.1
1334
4002.44
= 4002.44 crore
= Rs.71.87
556852339
= 0.76
= 0.24
Page 56
* 34.9
=17.5%
=33.33
0.195 - 0.175
Value anchor
Value anchor gives the expected price of share for next year.
Expected EPS * Expected P/E ratio
71.70
*33.33
= Rs. 2340
TCS Ltd.
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 57
Independent Director
A mehta
S. Ramaodorai
Independent Director
CEO and M.D
Laura Cha
Independent Director
TCS in Numbers
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 58
The above chart shows the key markets in world wide IT spends. It can be seen that the
major customer for IT services is America, which receives about 51% followed by Western
Europe and the least being Middle East, and Africa.
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 59
Indices
M ar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
jul
Jun
May
Apr
TCS
In this graph it can be noticed that value of share prices have been volatile and the value has
also seen a decline.
Balance sheets
(Rs.in crores)
2007
Particulars
2003
2004
2005
2006
Share Capital
36.44
36.44
48.01
48.93
97.86
1244.76
1064
3273.04
5560.43
7961.13
Shareholders fund
1856.9
2100.44
3321.05
5609.36
8058.99
Loan funds
90.12
127.35
185
100.09
111.35
Capital employed
3228.22
3328.23
3506.11
5709.52
8170.34
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 60
831.50
985.55
1028.44
1449.8
2218.46
Investments
414
1285.22
1404.42
1963.52
3252.04
1982.72
1057.46
1073.25
2296.22
2699.84
Total
3228.22
3328.23
3506.11
5709.52
8170.34
Share Capital
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
The company has got an authorized capital of 1200,000,000 of equity shares out of which it
has issued 910,678,410 shares of Rs.1 each in the year 2007, but it was 36 crore in 2003 and
it was not increased to a greater extent till 2007. The strategic acquisitions and alliances in
the year 2007 have lead to this increase in share capital.
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 61
2004
2005
2006
2007
The reserves and surplus have gradually increased over the period of time. Reason being
increase in the profit earned by the company. It can be seen that the profit after tax of the
company have increased manifold since 2004 hence the contribution to reserves and surplus
have also increased.
Investments
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
The investments are showing an impressive growth. The reason for increase in investment is
the strategic tie up with many countries across the world. It has invested in newer
technologies and Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) as a strategic area of focus. Towards
this the company has signed a memorandum of understanding with Jataayu Software (P)
Ltd. It has also invested heavily in Research and development area. The investment has been
around 200 crore.
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 62
2004
2005
2006
2007
The liquidity position of the company has been volatile. Company also faced a problem of
liquidity in the year of 2004.It can be seen from the graph that the liquidity position had
droped in the year 2004 and 2005 and gradually increased in the year 2006-07.
2003
2004
2005
(Rs. In Crores)
2006
2007
Net sales
4914
5517.88
8102.58
11293.76
15156.52
2012.70
3058
5548.3
7957.54
10639
Gross profit
2902
2459.88
2554.2
3074.35
4517.52
Operating expenses
253.33
453.3
526.3
257.38
343.41
PBIT
2648.67
2006.58
2027.89
2816.97
4174.11
Interest
6.68
7.89
10.40
4.49
3.43
PBT
2641.99
1998.69
2017.50
2812.48
4170.68
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 63
201
220
241.00
322.41
406
PAT
2440.9
1778.69
1776.50
2490
3790
Dividend
178.81
230.02
240.06
220.9
391.44
Retained earnings
1008
1064
1205.47
3105.3
5294
The report shows that there has been considerable increase in the net sales as many
acquisitions took place in the past two to three years. And there has also been increase in
operating profit and the net profit. Dividend has been declared every year. There has been
considerable increase in the dividend declared.
ROE
Book
value/share
EPS
Bonus
adjustment
factor
P/E ratio
P/B ratio
2003
3.14
2004
0.05
0.01
2005
1.77
0.01
2006
2.25
0.03
2007
1.99
7.97
0.53
36.52
10.50
40.05
12.92
42
69.17
44
114.64
47
82.35
3.72
1
4.17
1
38.15
1.31
42.52
1.01
38.39
2
----
26
20
32
18
36
10
38
15
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 64
Retention
0.62
ratio
Dividend per 1.00
share
0.63
0.73
0.61
0.66
1.20
11.50
13.50
11.50
CAGR of sales
1/4
CAGR of EPS
1/4
2006
11293.76
7957.54
257.38
4.49
322.41
2007
15156.52
10639
343.41
3.49
406
% Increase/
34%
33%
33%
22%
16%
2008
20309.73
Page 65
= Rs. 40.04
97,86,10,498
= 0.53
= 0.47
* 42
=22.26%
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 66
=38.84
0.2347 - 0.2226
Value anchor
Value anchor gives the expected price of share for next year.
Expected EPS * Expected P/E ratio
41.40
*38.84
= Rs. 1607.97
Po = D1 + P1
(1+r)
(1+r)
Where
Po = current Market Price
D1= Dividend per share in current year
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 67
Multi-Period Model
This is a higher version of Dividend Discount Model. The Dividend Discount
Model was used in determining the future price of share for the very next year but this can
be applied to know the price of share for N number of years. The formula is
Po = Dn
(1+r) n
Pn
(1+r) n
Pn =Dn
= Dn (1+Gn)
[ r- Gn ]
[ r- Gn]
Where
Pn = intrinsic value of share in future
Dn= Dividend per share
Gn= Growth rate
This particular model is applicable to those companies where the growth rate is normal
in present years but is going to decline over the period of time. It can applied to companies
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 68
+ P1
1+r
502= 5
+
P1
(1+0.216) (1+0.216)
502 = 5
( 1.216)
P1
(1.216)
502 = 4.11 + P1
1.216
P1 = Rs.605
Page 69
(1+r) 2
Pn
(1+r)2
502= 5
+ P2
2
(1+0.216)
(1+0.216) 2
502 = 4.46 +
Pn
1.47
P2=Rs. 731.3
P5 = D
+
P5
(1+r)
(1+r)
502= 5
+
P5
5
(1+0.216)
( 1+0.216) 5
502 = 1.88 +
P5
2.65
P5= Rs.1325
Page 70
6.1(PVIF 21%,1) +7.4(PVIF 21%,2) +9.07 (PVIF 21%,3) +11.07 (PVIF 21%,4)
+13.5 (PVIF 21%,5) +16.21(PVIF 21%,6) +19.4(PVIF 21%,7) +23.32 (PVIF 21%,8)
5.04+5.06+5.12+5.17+5.01+5.17+5.11+6.29
= 41.97
P8 =D8
= D8 (1+Gn)
[ r- Gn]
[r- Gn]
= 5*(1.22)*(1.20) (1.18)
[ 0.21 0.18]
= 875.25
Present value = 875
190.63
(1.21)
intrinsic value = Rs.1065
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 71
+ P1
1+r
2006=11.25 + P1
1+0.195 1+0.195
2006 = 11.25 + P1
1.195
1.195
2006 = 9.41 + P1
1.195
P1 = 2385
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 72
Pn
(1+r) 2
2006 = 11.25 + P2
(1+0.195) 2 (1+0.195) 2
2006 = 7.9 +
Pn
1.42
P2= 2843.5
P5 = D
+
5
(1+r)
P5
(1+r) 5
2006= 11.25 +
(1+0.195) 5
2006 = 4.62
P2
( 1+0.195) 5
+
P5
2.43
P5= Rs.4863.36
Page 73
Page 74
+ P1
1+r
123= 11.5
+ P1
( 1+0.2347) (1+0.2347)
1231 = 11.5 + P1
1.2347
1.2347
1231 = 9.31 + P1
1.2347
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 75
P2
(1+2347) 2
1231 = 7.56 +
Pn
1.52
P2= Rs.1859.62
P5 = D
+
P5
(1+r)
(1+r)
1231= 11.5
+ P2
5
(1+0.2347)
( 1+0.2347) 5
1231 = 4.02
P5
2.86
P5= Rs.3540.8
Page 76
15.87(PVIF 22%,1) +20.03(PVIF 22%,2) +26.44 (PVIF 22%,3) +41.7 (PVIF 22%,4) +54.13
(PVIF 22%,5) +70.42(PVIF 22%,6) +91.61(PVIF 22%,7) +119.09 (PVIF 22%,8)
13+13.53+14.60+18.86+20.04+21.40+24.30 = 125.73
P8 =D8
= D8 (1+Gn)
r- Gn]
[ r- Gn]
=11. 5*(1.32)*(1.30) (1.31)
[ .22-.31]
= 1450
Present value = 1450 = 295
(1.22) 8
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 77
Findings
1) The Indian economy is growing very fast. Its contribution to the worlds GDP is
around 7.7%. Next only to China and U.S. This revels the fact that it will have positive
impact on all the industries of the country.
2) The growth of IT Industry has been commendable in the recent past. It has been the
fastest growing industry but the stocks performance revels a different story. The last 16
months performance has been very disappointing. The main reasons being stock markets
high volatility, Rupee appreciation and U.S. slowdown. In such case it can adopt the
following remedies.
3)
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 78
Model
Discount Model
Multi period
Model
Two stage
growth Model
Wipro
Rs.605
Rs.731
TCS
Rs.1508
Rs.1859
Infosys
Rs.2385
Rs.2843
Rs.1325
Rs.1745
Rs.1453
The above table shows the expected future equity price of respective shares. It can be
observed from the above table that
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 79
RECOMMENDATIONS
1) In spite of fall in the value of share prices in the recent past, I would definitely
recommend the investors to invest in these companies. Reason being the companies
is financially very strong.
2) The current volatility in the market is due to Rupee appreciation, and
U.S.slowdown but the companies have taken several measures to see that these two
problems. They have diversified their business and also they have hedged against the
rupee appreciation. So investment in these stocks would not lead to loss.
3) The recommendation would be to invest for a longer period of time. At least for 5
years as they would yield better returns.
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 80
before investing and avoid investing based on the market sentiments, as they would
be misleading. Investing in a fundamentally strong company for longer period of
time would be a worthy decision.
7) A better Strategy for any investor would be to invest in these companies and not to
trade or speculate because share market is not a casino. And dont panic if the values
of shares are coming down, as it is only temporary.
BIBILOGRAPHY
Prasanna Chandra, Equity Valuation: A bearing on shareholders, Investment
Analysis and portfolio Management.
Punithavathy Pandian, Fundamental Analysis, Security Analysis and
Portfolio Management.
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Page 81
ANNXEURE
Formulas of Ratios used
1) Current ratio =
Current Assets
Current Liabilities
Page 82
Beta Calculation
Close return
Date
Close return(x) Close(infy) return(y) x*x
x*y
Price
(wit)
x*y
clo(tcs) Return
1-Apr-03 984.3
0
4059
0
0
0 1231.2
0
0NA
NA
2-Apr-03 999.4 1.5341
4133 1.82701 2.353 2.803 1277.3 3.7403 5.7379NA
NA
3-Apr-03 1009.2 0.9756
4295 3.92359 0.952 3.828 1273.7 -0.278 -0.2712NA
NA
4-Apr-03 1017 0.7729
4295 0.00815 0.597 0.006 1293.4 1.5427 1.1924NA
NA
7-Apr-03 1031.5 1.4307
4383 2.04181 2.047 2.921 1293.6 0.0193 0.0277NA
NA
8-Apr-03 1018.1 -1.299
4233 -3.4315 1.688 4.458 1253.5
-3.1
4.027NA
NA
9-Apr-03 1004.9 -1.301
4152 -1.9031 1.694 2.477 1231.3 -1.775 2.3101NA
NA
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
Return(Y)
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Page 83
962.2
949.8
951.2
958.65
940.7
947.2
943.5
934.2
929.7
924.3
929.5
932.3
934.05
938.3
945.4
951.85
950.15
941.55
937.85
936
944.2
952.15
959.85
973.1
966.55
971.55
968
963.25
967.9
982.45
976.85
990.8
1002.6
1006.8
1015.2
1010.7
1021.1
1035.1
1046.4
1052.1
1037.8
1044.1
1051.3
1056.2
1051.8
1082
1086.8
1092.6
1100.3
-4.244
-1.289
0.1474
0.7832
-1.872
0.691
-0.391
-0.986
-0.482
-0.581
0.5626
0.3012
0.1877
0.455
0.7567
0.6823
-0.179
-0.905
-0.393
-0.197
0.8761
0.842
0.8087
1.3804
-0.673
0.5173
-0.365
-0.491
0.4827
1.5033
-0.57
1.4281
1.191
0.4189
0.8294
-0.443
1.029
1.3711
1.0966
0.5447
-1.359
0.6071
0.6896
0.4661
-0.417
2.8665
0.4436
0.5337
0.7048
3050
2653
2860
3025
2963
2933
2920
2883
2898
2910
2893
2867
2787
2914
2946
2982
3024
2976
2926
2782
2875
2865
2884
2994
2791
2854
2788
2691
2612
2633
2613
2746
2770
2674
2811
2726
2764
2860
2949
2969
2875
2939
2970
2971
2917
3093
3064
3043
3054
-26.547
-12.998
7.77696
5.76284
-2.0202
-1.0393
-0.4399
-1.257
0.51509
0.41583
-0.5859
-0.8815
-2.8162
4.57906
1.10493
1.20147
1.39848
-1.5776
-1.6668
-4.9176
3.3174
-0.32
0.63516
3.83028
-6.7901
2.25567
-2.2918
-3.5003
-2.9249
0.79824
-0.7729
5.1177
0.85209
-3.4445
5.10994
-3.0293
1.40331
3.46786
3.11735
0.66464
-3.148
2.21731
1.05654
0.04209
-1.8208
6.01807
-0.9345
-0.6691
0.36475
18.02
1.661
0.022
0.613
3.506
0.477
0.153
0.972
0.232
0.337
0.317
0.091
0.035
0.207
0.573
0.465
0.032
0.819
0.154
0.039
0.767
0.709
0.654
1.906
0.453
0.268
0.134
0.241
0.233
2.26
0.325
2.039
1.418
0.175
0.688
0.197
1.059
1.88
1.202
0.297
1.847
0.369
0.476
0.217
0.174
8.217
0.197
0.285
0.497
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
112.7
16.75
1.146
4.514
3.783
-0.72
0.172
1.239
-0.25
-0.24
-0.33
-0.27
-0.53
2.084
0.836
0.82
-0.25
1.428
0.655
0.97
2.906
-0.27
0.514
5.287
4.57
1.167
0.837
1.718
-1.41
1.2
0.441
7.308
1.015
-1.44
4.238
1.343
1.444
4.755
3.418
0.362
4.279
1.346
0.729
0.02
0.759
17.25
-0.41
-0.36
0.257
1007.4
935.2
980.85
957.1
880.85
911.7
901.65
914.25
913.15
886.4
882.3
868.8
866.7
868.5
884.55
912.9
919.85
903.35
890.05
876.8
901.6
902.5
905.05
941.45
903
905.55
859.45
826
823.05
811.05
807.5
839.8
824.85
806.15
820.55
827.5
834.25
862.6
870.8
849.2
830.1
831.35
839.6
849.7
852.75
897.55
924.75
909.15
929.75
-18.18
-7.162
4.8813
-2.421
-7.967
3.5023
-1.102
1.3974
-0.12
-2.929
-0.463
-1.53
-0.242
0.2077
1.848
3.205
0.7613
-1.794
-1.472
-1.489
2.8285
0.0998
0.2825
4.0219
-4.084
0.2824
-5.091
-3.892
-0.357
-1.458
-0.438
4
-1.78
-2.267
1.7863
0.847
0.8157
3.3983
0.9506
-2.48
-2.249
0.1506
0.9924
1.203
0.359
5.2536
3.0305
-1.687
2.2659
77.184NA
9.2302NA
0.7195NA
-1.8965NA
14.917NA
2.42NA
0.4306NA
-1.3774NA
0.058NA
1.7015NA
-0.2602NA
-0.4609NA
-0.0454NA
0.0945NA
1.3984NA
2.1866NA
-0.136NA
1.6236NA
0.5786NA
0.2937NA
2.4779NA
0.084NA
0.2285NA
5.5519NA
2.7491NA
0.1461NA
1.8602NA
1.9098NA
-0.1724NA
-2.1917NA
0.2495NA
5.7122NA
-2.1201NA
-0.9497NA
1.4815NA
-0.3755NA
0.8394NA
4.6595NA
1.0424NA
-1.3512NA
3.057NA
0.0914NA
0.6843NA
0.5607NA
-0.1495NA
15.059NA
1.3444NA
-0.9003NA
1.5969NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Page 84
1089.2
1085.4
1106.7
1116.4
1125.6
1134.2
1130.7
1133.8
1144.7
1138.5
1140.6
1145.9
1141.1
1162.4
1161.7
1171.5
1159.9
1168.8
1152
1140
1115.8
1109.2
1119.1
1139.5
1162.8
1169.2
1174.8
1183
1185.9
1195.8
1203.6
1184.5
1171.1
1197
1222.7
1232.9
1234.8
1246.9
1247.8
1281.4
1277.7
1287.4
1301
1311.2
1271.1
1318.2
1340.3
1341.1
1356.6
-1.004
-0.353
1.9625
0.8765
0.8241
0.7641
-0.304
0.2742
0.957
-0.542
0.1845
0.4691
-0.423
1.8667
-0.06
0.8479
-0.994
0.7673
-1.433
-1.042
-2.123
-0.592
0.888
1.823
2.0448
0.5547
0.4747
0.7023
0.2409
0.8348
0.6565
-1.591
-1.131
2.2117
2.1471
0.8343
0.1541
0.984
0.0682
2.6969
-0.289
0.7592
1.0525
0.784
-3.055
3.7055
1.6765
0.056
1.1558
3095
3144
3141
3239
3330
3274
3303
3170
3119
3096
3095
3240
3251
3627
3515
3487
3407
3446
3463
3389
3291
3338
3431
3461
3517
3527
3586
3567
3602
3777
3742
3727
3505
3508
3558
3482
3409
3463
3417
3490
3492
3677
3714
3642
3561
3717
3856
3899
3926
1.32109
1.60761
-0.1145
3.12659
2.82031
-1.692
0.88882
-4.0432
-1.6075
-0.7231
-0.0275
4.6879
0.34102
11.5475
-3.084
-0.7881
-2.2998
1.13588
0.51223
-2.1381
-2.9003
1.44027
2.78572
0.85387
1.6167
0.28009
1.67444
-0.5257
0.9939
4.84287
-0.9056
-0.4062
-5.9535
0.08558
1.40522
-2.132
-2.1024
1.58863
-1.3313
2.14245
0.06591
5.29473
1.01712
-1.9572
-2.2215
4.39221
3.72856
1.11389
0.6938
1.009
0.125
3.851
0.768
0.679
0.584
0.093
0.075
0.916
0.293
0.034
0.22
0.179
3.485
0.004
0.719
0.989
0.589
2.054
1.085
4.506
0.35
0.789
3.323
4.181
0.308
0.225
0.493
0.058
0.697
0.431
2.531
1.28
4.892
4.61
0.696
0.024
0.968
0.005
7.273
0.083
0.576
1.108
0.615
9.33
13.73
2.811
0.003
1.336
Babasabpatilfreepptmba.com
-1.33
-0.57
-0.22
2.741
2.324
-1.29
-0.27
-1.11
-1.54
0.392
-0.01
2.199
-0.14
21.56
0.186
-0.67
2.287
0.872
-0.73
2.227
6.157
-0.85
2.474
1.557
3.306
0.155
0.795
-0.37
0.239
4.043
-0.59
0.646
6.735
0.189
3.017
-1.78
-0.32
1.563
-0.09
5.778
-0.02
4.02
1.071
-1.53
6.786
16.28
6.251
0.062
0.802
913.25
888.95
902.6
915.3
935.3
947.8
935.15
912.55
907.8
901.75
917.35
938.1
918.35
1005.5
953.7
968
945.5
974.65
935.95
916.65
885.1
898.45
925.2
917.1
929.35
955.6
949.7
941.15
947.6
986.6
989.5
958.2
921.75
934.15
959
945.9
924.85
927.25
912.8
912.35
924.8
951.65
981.45
973.1
949.7
976.35
1020.1
1069.9
1068.9
-1.775
-2.661
1.5355
1.407
2.1851
1.3365
-1.335
-2.417
-0.521
-0.666
1.73
2.262
-2.105
9.4898
-5.152
1.4994
-2.324
3.083
-3.971
-2.062
-3.442
1.5083
2.9773
-0.875
1.3357
2.8246
-0.617
-0.9
0.6853
4.1157
0.2939
-3.163
-3.804
1.3453
2.6602
-1.366
-2.225
0.2595
-1.558
-0.049
1.3646
2.9033
3.1314
-0.851
-2.405
2.8061
4.481
4.8819
-0.098
1.7823NA
0.9405NA
3.0135NA
1.2333NA
1.8008NA
1.0212NA
0.406NA
-0.6626NA
-0.4981NA
0.361NA
0.3191NA
1.061NA
0.8911NA
17.715NA
0.3102NA
1.2714NA
2.3115NA
2.3657NA
5.6906NA
2.148NA
7.3064NA
-0.8922NA
2.644NA
-1.596NA
2.7314NA
1.5668NA
-0.2931NA
-0.6322NA
0.1651NA
3.4359NA
0.193NA
5.0329NA
4.3036NA
2.9753NA
5.7117NA
-1.1396NA
-0.343NA
0.2554NA
-0.1062NA
-0.133NA
-0.394NA
2.2041NA
3.2958NA
-0.667NA
7.3453NA
10.398NA
7.5125NA
0.2732NA
-0.1134NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
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Page 85
1376
1385.5
1359.4
1372.7
1398.4
1417.4
1407.1
1409.6
1403.2
1372.1
1329.3
1358
1341.6
1302.4
1322.2
1302.9
1328.2
1372.1
1357.2
1387
1400
1417.1
1420.9
1449.3
1478.9
1477.9
1478.6
1502.1
1523.1
1546.8
1520.8
1537
1555.7
1569.5
1542.7
1506.5
1494.1
1470.5
1506.1
1522
1485.3
1481.8
1498.5
1516.9
1555.9
1601.7
1618.7
1609.2
1612.2
1.4301
0.6904
-1.884
0.9821
1.8722
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1334.5
1333.6
1379.4
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1540.7
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1658.5
1670.5
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1645.8
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1736.3
1733.3
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1808.7
1837.1
1874.1
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1926.7
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1844.1
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Page 98
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Page 99
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Page 100
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2007
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1992
1991
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