N TP

(LM V NP CHO GIO VIN BN VIT TAY, PH T LI HC)

I. L thuyt
Em hy tm tt li ton b ni dung l thuyt mn Xc sut Thng k thnh h thng trong khng
qu 8 trang giy A4.
II. Bi tp
Lm cc thi sau y:
1
Cu 1. C hai l hng, l th nht c 8 sn phm trong c 3 ph phm, l th hai c 6 sn phm trong
c 2 ph phm. Ly ngu nhin t l th nht 1 sn phm, t l th hai 2 sn phm. Gi X l s ph phm
trong 3 sn phm ly ra. Lp bng phn b xc sut ca X.
Cu 2. Cho X l i lng ngu nhin c hm mt
20x 3 (1 x) khi 0 x 1
f (x)
khi x (0;1)
0

a) Tnh k vng v phng sai ca X.

b) Tm hm phn b ca X, t hy tnh P 0.2 X 0.5 .
Cu 3. Tin hnh 30 quan st v i lng ngu nhin X ta thu c s liu c
X 5.52, s X 2.05

a) Vi tin cy 0.95 , hy ch ra khong tin cy cho EX .

b) Gi s thm rng X c phn phi chun. Vi mc ngha 0.05 c th ni EX 5.5 c khng?
Cu 4. Trong mt vn cy, t l cn trng c phn b nh sau
B ra

Ong

Mt ng cc

Su xanh

Bm

10%

20%

30%

35%

5%

Sau khi phun mt loi thuc tr su, ngi ta bt ngu nhin mt s cn trng v c kt qu sau:
B ra

Ong

Mt ng cc

Su xanh

Bm

28 (con)

23

17

29

a) Hi rng thuc tr su c lm thay i c cu cn trng trong vn khng ? 0.05 .

b) T l su xanh trong vn c gim i khng ? 0.10 .
Cho bit:
u(0.10) 1.28, u(0.05) 1.65, u(0.025) 1.96, t 29 (0.025) 2.05, t 29 (0.05) 1.70, 4 (0.05) 9.49
---------- HT ---------

 2
Cu 1. Hai x th, mi ngi bn hai vin n vo bia. Xc sut bn trng ch trong mi ln bn ca cc x
th tng ng l 0.3 v 0.4. Gi X l tng s vin n trng ch ca hai x th. Lp bng phn phi xc
sut ca X .
Cu 2. Cho X v Y l hai i lng ngu nhin c hm mt ng thi l

12 2
( x xy ) khi 0 x, y 1
f ( x, y ) 7
0
otherwise
a) Tm hm mt ca X v Y, kim tra tnh c lp gia X v Y .
b) Tnh D (2 X Y ) v P( X Y 1)
Cu 3. Cho X l i lng ngu nhin c phn phi chun N(, 2 ) vi tham s 2 bit. S dng
phng php hp l cc i tm c lng im cho EX . c lng c l c lng khng chch,
c lng vng khng?
Cu 4. Tin hnh 50 quan st v i lng ngu nhin X ta thu c s liu c

X 5.52,s X 2.05 .
a) Vi tin cy 0.95 , hy ch ra khong tin cy cho EX .
b) Nu gi thit rng X c phn phi chun th vi mc ngha 0.05 c th ni EX ln hn
5.50; DX ln hn 4.00 c khng?
Cu 5. Cho X l i lng ngu nhin c phn phi N(, 2 ) . Xt bi ton: Gi thit: 2 1 ; i thit:

2 2. Ta s dng min tiu chun c dng S s2 a .

a) Tnh xc sut mc cc loi sai lm v xc sut c cc quyt nh ng khi a 1.30 v s quan st
l n 30 .
b) Vi c mu khng i, tm a xc sut mc sai lm loi mt khng qu 0.05 . Khi xc sut
mc sai lm loi hai bng bao nhiu?
2
Cho bit: u(0.05) 1.65, u(0.025) 1.96, t 49 (0.05) 1.67, t 49 (0.025) 2.01, 49
(0.05) 67.5 ,

P( 39) 0.10, P( 19.50) 0.09, P( 21.30) 0.16, P( 42.6) 0.05 vi c phn

phi khi-bnh phng 29 bc t do.
------------- HT -------------

 3
Cu 1. Mt bnh nhn b nghi mc mt trong hai bnh A v B. Xc sut mc bnh A l 0.6 v xc sut mc
bnh B l 0.4. Ngi ta thc hin xt nghim T c c s chun on tt hn. Nu ngi mc bnh A
th xc sut xt nghim T cho kt qu dng tnh l 0.8 cn nu ngi mc bnh B th xc sut xt
nghim T cho kt qu dng tnh l 0.1. Khi tin hnh xt nghim T, ngi ta thy n cho kt qu dng
tnh. Hi khi xc sut bnh nhn mc bnh A l bao nhiu?
Cu 2. Bit rng s th m c quan A nhn c trong mt ngy l i lng ngu nhin c phn b PotXng (Poisson) vi tham s 2 .
a) Tnh xc sut trong mt ngy c quan nhn c khng qu 2 l th.
b) S l th trung bnh m c quan A nhn c trong 1 tun l bao nhiu?
Cu 3. Cho X v Y l hai i lng ngu nhin c hm mt ng thi l

6 2
( x y)
f ( x, y ) 5
0

khi 0 x, y 1
otherwise

Tnh cc gi tr sau: Cov(X,Y) v P(X Y 1). Hi X v Y c c lp khng?

Cu 4. Ngi ta iu tra mc thu nhp hng thng ca mt s ngi dn trong mt vng v c s liu sau
y:
Mc thu nhp (triu ng)

0 --> 1

1 --> 2

2 --> 3

3 --> 4

4 --> 5

5 --> 6

S ngi

12

14

a) Vi tin cy 95%, hy c lng mc thu nhp trung bnh hng thng ca ngi dn vng .
b) C ngi ni rng mc thu nhp trung bnh hng thng ca ngi dn vng l 3.5 triu ng.
Vi mc ngha 5%, hy kim tra xem ngi ni c ng khng?
Cu 5. o chiu cao ca 12 cp b v con ngi ta c kt qu sau:
X - B (inches)

65 63 67

64 68

62

70

66

68

67

69

71

Y - Con (inches)

68 66 68

65 69

66

68

65

71

67

68

70

a) Tnh h s tng quan mu gia X v Y.

b) Tm hm hi quy tuyn tnh thc nghim ca Y theo X. Da vo hm hi quy, hy d on chiu
cao ca con nu chiu cao ca b l 68.5 inches.
Cho bit: u(0.05) 1.65, u(0.025) 1.96, t 49 (0.05) 1.67, t 49 (0.025) 2.01 .
------------ HT ----------

 4
Cu 1. Mt doanh nghip xut khu mt l hng gm 50 nghn i giy vo th trng A. Nh nhp khu
tin hnh kim tra ngu nhin 100 i, nu c khng qu 2 i b li th chp nhn l hng.
a) Tnh xc sut l hng c chp nhn. Bit rng t l s i b li trong l hng l 2%.
b) Nu mun l hng c chp nhn vi xc sut khng di 0.95 th trong l hng c php c ti
a bao nhiu i b li ?

4 x(1 x 2 ) khi x (0;1)

Cu 2. Cho X l i lng ngu nhin c hm mt f ( x)
khi x (0;1)
0
a) Tm k vng v lch chun ca X.

b) Tm medX v tnh P 0 X .
2

1
.
2
Cu 3. Khi nghin cu v mc mua sm hng ha ca khch hng ti mt siu th trong nhng ngy bnh

c) Ta tin hnh quan st gi tr ca X. Tnh xc sut n ln th 5 ta mi nhn c gi tr ln hn

thng, ngi ta thu c kt qu sau:

Tin mua hng
(triu ng)

[0;0.2)

[0.2;0.5)

[0.5;1.0)

[1.0;1.5)

[1.5; 2.0)

2.0

T l khch
hng (%)

15

31

24

13

10

Khi siu th tin hnh khuyn mi, ngi ta thm d mc chi tiu ca khch hng v thu c kt qu sau:
Tin mua hng
(Triu ng)

[0;0.2)

[0.2;0.5)

[0.5;1.0)

[1.0;1.5)

[1.5; 2.0)

2.0

S khch hng

40

53

98

47

36

31

a) Vi mc ngha 5%, c th ni vic khuyn mi lm thay i mc chi tiu ca khch hng khng ?
b) Vi mc ngha 10%, c th ni t l khch hng mua sm t 1 triu ng tr ln khi siu th khuyn
mi tng so vi t l thi im trc khuyn mi hay khng ?
c) Vi tin cy 90%, hy c lng mc mua sm trung bnh ca khch hng khi siu th khuyn mi.
Cu 4. Khi nghin cu v mi quan h gia mc tng ch s gi tiu dng v tc tng trng GDP ngi
ta thu c s liu sau:
Nm

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Mc tng ch s gi tiu dng (X%)

3.9

3.1

7.8

8.3

7.5

Tc tng trng GDP (Y%)

7.0

7.2

7.7

8.4

7.8

a) Tnh h s tng quan gia X v Y.

b) Lp phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh ca Y theo X. D bo tc tng trng GDP khi mc tng ch
s gi tiu dng l 6%.
------------ HT -------------

 5
Cu 1. Mt nh my c ba phn xng tng ng lm ra 20%, 30% v 50% s sn phm ca nh my. T l
sn phm b li ca cc phn xng tng ng l 2%, 3% v 4%. Ly ngu nhin mt sn phm ca nh
my.
a) Tnh xc sut sn phm l sn phm tt. Nu sn phm ly ra l sn phm tt th xc sut sn phm
do phn xng th hai sn xut bng bao nhiu ?
b) Ngi ta ly ngu nhin tng sn phm ca nh my. Tnh xc sut phi ly n ln th nm mi
c sn phm b li.

3 x(1 x 4 )
Cu 2. Cho X l i lng ngu nhin c hm mt f ( x)
0

khi x (0;1)
khi x (0;1)

a) Tm k vng v lch chun ca X.

b) Tm modX v tnh P 0 X .
2

c) Tin hnh quan st gi tr ca X. Tnh xc sut trong 5 ln quan st c ng hai ln X nhn gi tr nh

1
.
2
Cu 3. Gi s rng t l sinh t nhin ca con ngi l 49% n v 51% nam. Ngi ta nghi ng do c s can

hn

thip ca con ngi nn lm thay i t l sinh t nhin, dn n nguy c mt cn bng gii tnh ngi
trng thnh. Mt t chc phi chnh ph tin hnh iu tra ngu nhin 2000 ca mi sinh, kt qu l c
940 em b n v 1060 em b nam.
a) Vi mc ngha 5%, c th ni t l sinh thay i so vi t l sinh t nhin khng ?
b) Vi mc ngha 5%, c bao nhiu em b nam trong s 2000 em mi sinh th ta vn c th coi t l
sinh khng thay i so vi t l sinh t nhin ?
c) Vi tin cy 95%, hy c lng t l sinh s em b n.
Cu 4. Khi nghin cu v mi quan h gia t l tng s xe my v t l tng s ngi cht v tai nn giao
thng ngi ta thu c s liu sau:
Nm

1993

1995

1997

2000

2001

T l tng s xe my (X%)

42.4

13.0

6.0

15.7

29.6

T l tng s ngi cht (Y%)

43.0

7.5

4.8

12.4

39.7

a) Tnh h s tng quan gia X v Y, rt ra nhn xt v mi quan h gia t l tng s xe my v t l

tng s ngi cht do tai nn giao thng.
b) Lp phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh ca X theo Y. D bo t l tng s s xe my khi t l tng s
ngi cht l 15%.
------------- HT ---------------

 6
Cu 1. Mt nh my c ba phn xng tng ng lm ra 25%, 35% v 40% s sn phm ca nh my. T l
sn phm b li ca cc phn xng tng ng l 2%, 3% v 4%. Ly ngu nhin mt sn phm ca nh
my.
a) Tnh xc sut sn phm l sn phm tt. Nu sn phm ly ra l sn phm tt th xc sut sn
phm do phn xng th ba sn xut bng bao nhiu ?
b) Ngi ta ly ngu nhin tng sn phm ca nh my. Tnh xc sut phi ly n ln th ba mi c
sn phm b li.

12 x 2 (1 x ) khi x (0;1)
Cu 2. Cho X l i lng ngu nhin c hm mt f ( x)
khi x (0;1)
0
a) Tm k vng v lch chun ca X.

b) Tm ModX v tnh P 0 X .
2

c) Tin hnh quan st gi tr ca X. Tnh xc sut trong 5 ln quan st c ng hai ln X nhn gi tr nh

1
.
2
Cu 3. Gi s rng t l sinh t nhin ca con ngi l 49% n v 51% nam. Ngi ta nghi ng do c s can

hn

thip ca con ngi nn lm thay i t l sinh t nhin, dn n nguy c mt cn bng gii tnh lp
ngi trng thnh. Mt t chc tin hnh iu tra ngu nhin 2000 ca mi sinh, kt qu l c 960 em b
n v 1040 em b nam.
a) Vi mc ngha 5%, c th ni t l sinh thay i so vi t l sinh t nhin khng ?
b) Vi mc ngha 5%, c bao nhiu em b n trong s 2000 em mi sinh th ta vn c th coi t l
sinh khng thay i so vi t l sinh t nhin ?
c) Vi tin cy 95%, hy c lng t l sinh s em b nam.
Cu 4. Khi nghin cu v mi quan h gia t l tng s xe my v t l tng s ngi cht v tai nn giao
thng ngi ta thu c s liu sau:
Nm

1993

1995

1997

2000

2001

T l tng s xe my (X %)

42.4

13.0

6.0

15.7

29.6

7.5

4.8

12.4

39.7

T l tng s ngi cht (Y %) 43.0

a) Tnh h s tng quan mu gia X v Y, rt ra nhn xt v mi quan h gia t l tng s xe my v

t l tng s ngi cht do tai nn giao thng.
b) Lp phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh thc nghim ca Y theo X. D bo t l tng s ngi cht khi t
l tng s xe my l 20%.
----------------- HT --------------

 7
Cu 1. Mt doanh nghip xut khu mt l hng gm 50 nghn i giy vo th trng A. Nh nhp khu
tin hnh kim tra ngu nhin 100 i, nu c khng qu 2 i b li th chp nhn l hng.
a) Tnh xc sut l hng c chp nhn. Bit rng t l s i b li trong l hng l 2%.
b) Bit rng l hng c chp nhn. Tnh xc sut trong s 100 i c kim tra, c ng 1 i giy
b li.
c) Nu mun l hng c chp nhn vi xc sut khng di 0.95 th trong l hng c php c ti
a bao nhiu i b li ?

4 x(1 x 2 ) khi x (0;1)

Cu 2. Cho X l i lng ngu nhin c hm mt f ( x)
.
khi x (0;1)
0
a) Tnh k vng v lch chun ca X.

b) Tm MedX v tnh P 0 X .
2

c) Tin hnh quan st gi tr ca X. Tnh xc sut n ln quan st th 5 ta mi nhn c gi tr ln hn

1
.
2
Cu 3. Cho X, Y l hai i lng ngu nhin c hm mt ng thi l

k ( x y ) khi ( x, y ) [0;1] [0;1]

.
f ( x, y )
khi ( x, y ) [0;1] [0;1]
0
a) Tm k v tnh P(Y X ) .
b) Tnh Cov( X , Y ) .
c) Tm hm mt ca X. Kim tra tnh c lp gia X v Y.
Cu 4. Cho X n l dy cc i lng ngu nhin i mt khng tng quan v c phn b
Xn

-1

1 1

2 2n

1 1

2 2n

( n 1, 2,... ).

Chng minh rng dy X n tun theo lut s ln. Tm gii hn ca dy X n theo phn b.
--------- HT -----------

 8
Cu 1. C hai chung th, chung th nht cha 3 con en v 7 con trng, chung th hai cha 5 con trng
v 9 con en. T chung th nht, ta bt mt con th vo chung th hai, sau li bt mt con t chung
th hai ra. Bit rng ln bt sau ta c con th trng. Tnh xc sut con th trng ny l ca chung th
hai.
Cu 2. Cho X l i lng ngu nhin c hm mt

k (3 x 2 2 x )
f (x)
0

x 1;4
x 1;4

a) Tm hng s k , tnh k vng v phng sai ca X.

b) Tm hm phn phi ca X, t tnh P(2 < X < 3).
c) Tm hm mt ca Y= X .
Cu 3. Cho X, Y l 2 bin ngu nhin c hm mt ng thi l
k ( x 2 y 2 )
f ( x, y )
0

khi x, y [0;1]
otherwise

a) Tm k v tnh P( X Y 1)
b) Tnh h s tng quan gia X v Y.
c) Kim tra tnh c lp gia X v Y.
Cu 4. Trong mt cuc iu tra v nng sut la, ngi ta ly mu 100 im v thu c s liu nh
sau:
Nng sut (t/ha)

27

32

33

35

37

38

39

S im

11

28

36

12

Gi X l nng sut ca la (t/ha). Gi s rng X c phn phi chun.

a) Ch ra c lng im cho EX v DX.
b) Vi tin cy 95%, EX v DX nm trong khong no?
c) Vi mc ngha 5%, c th ni EX ln hn 35 c khng?
Cho bit:

u(0.05) 1.65; u(0.025) 1.96; t99(0.05) 1.64;

t99(0.025) 1.96; 99 (0.975) =73.2; 99 (0.025) =128.5
--------- HT ---------