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FIN334

S12-1-4

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2014 11 15

Contents

SWOT

10

11

12

14

15

16

8,9

16

16

17

EPS, ,

17

10

19


,
, ,
1985 -
.
. 20 ,
.
CPK 3 : ,
, CPK Kraft foods-
.
, 2007 2- 28
, 6 213 .
/ 41% /
, ,
.

Domino's
Domino's 60
9000 . [24]. 1960 NYSE
1.3 . ,
, ,
. Domino's
Pizza today .
Domino's

, .

Domino's

3-D .
Domino's

. Dominos


.
P.F.Chang's
P.F. Chang's , , ,
. P.F. Chang's
. P.F.
Chang's
. 2010 P.F. Chang's China Bistro,
Inc. 200 . P.F. Chang's

. P.F. Chang's China Bistro, Inc. MBH Architects
.
Chipotle
Chipotle ,
. 1993 . 1995
, 1996 . IPO
1998 Chipotle
. McDonald's 2001
Chipotle's . McDonald's
1998 16 2005 500
.
2011
Chipotle 12 160
.
2011 2 10 1.1
Chipotle .
5


, ,
.

 .
5
.
, .

.

5 , ,
.

. 5

.

.
.

.
.

.
.

5
.
.
.
.



.

. 5

.
.


.


. ,
.
.
.
.

. California Pizza
.

.
, , , ,


.


.
Rick Rosenfield, Larry Flax ,
Susan M Collyns 32

 5 9
.
, 3
. 60-80 .

California Pizza Kitchen-
.
,

. ,
,
.

.

SWOT
Strength / /
CPK- .

. CPK ASAP

. CPK Chipotle
.
Weaknesses / /
CPK .

. (Takeout revenue ,
. ).
.
CPK- . CPK 32
.

Opportunities //
CPK- .
.
CPZ-
. CPK ASAP-
. CPK ASAP-
.
CPK Little Ceasar
. CPK . CPK-
, . CPK
. CFK-
.
CPK- .
Threats //
CPK . .
.
. 2 . Chipotle
1000
.
. .
CPK-
CPK- .

1
- ?
5
5.5% 5.1% .
- 6.5% .
:

.
.

. 2007 5
5.15 7.25
.
.
- 2005
75000- .
.

45% 2010 53% .
,
. 2005 -
PSCM/ /-
,
1500 , 1

. 4,5 %
,
.

.

2
?
CPK 3 : ,
, CPK Kraft foods-
.

 2
ASAP 170 CPK

Kraft

foods-

.
50 000 - 65 000 ,
5%- .

.
1997 CPK
.
CPK- 1%
95% 5% CPK-
.

, ,
.

3
CPK- ?

. /, ,
, /

.
1912 //
.

. 2007
770 000 CPK

 15
.

2006 2 2007 2
36.6 36.3 . ,
, 2006 2007
24.5 . 4 1.37 7
2

.

4
9- ROE ?

10%

20%

30%

6.16%

6.16%

6.16%

6.16%

32.5%

32.5%

32.5%

32.5%

30,054

30,054

30,054

30,054

1,391

2,783

4,174

30,054

28,663

27,271

25,880

9,755

9,303

8,852

8,400

20,299

19,360

18,419

17,480

22,589

45,178

67,766

225,888

203299

180,710

158,122

225,888

225,888

225,888

225,888

22,589

45,178

67,766

643,773

628,516

613,259

596,002

643,773

651,105

658,437

663,768

,
. 9
ROE ( ) .

ROE

10%

20%

30%

20,299

19,360

18,419

17,480

225,888

203,299

180,710

158,122

0.0899

0.0952

0.1019

0.1105

ROE=/

.

 5
9 ?
.

. .

20%

30%

22,589.00

45,178.00

67,766.00

0.325

0.325

0.325

0.325

7,341.43

14,682.85

22,023.95

28,108.00

27,086.00

26,064.00

0.25

0.50

0.76

22.1

22.1

22.1

22.1

22.10

22.36

22.64

22.94

10%

29,130.00

 6
?
:

10%

20%

30%

22,589.00

45,178.00

67,766.00

0.325

0.325

0.325

0.325

7,341.43

14,682.85

22,023.95

29,130.00

28,108.00

27,086.00

26,064.00

0.25

0.50

0.76

22.1

22.1

22.1

22.1

22.10

22.36

22.64

22.94

1,022

2044

3066

 7
?

10%

20%

30%

22,589.00

45,178.00

67,766.00

0.325

0.325

0.325

0.325

7,341.43

14,682.85

22,023.95

10%, 20%, 30%-

.
.

8,9
?


BAsset

Bequity
Market risk premium
Cost of equity

10%

0.85
0.052
0.85

0.85
0.052
0.87

20%
0.85
0.052
0.89

0.094

0.094

0.094

0.094

0.1319

0.13378

0.13566

0.13801

Cost of Equity=Rf+Beta*Market Risk Premium=0.052+0.85*0.094=0.1319

Market Risk Premium = Expected Return of the Market Risk-Free Rate=14.6-5.2=9.4
Betaequity=Beta asset(1+(1-T)D/E)

30%

0.85
0.052
0.915










1-
WACC

643,773
0
643,773
0
100%
0.052
6.16%
0.675
0.0520

10%

651,105
22589
628,516
3.74%
96.53%
0.052
6.16%
0.675
0.0518

30%

20%
658,437
45178
613,259
6.86%
93.14%
0.052
6.16%
0.675
0.0513

663,768
67766
596,002
10.18%
89.82%
0.052
6.16%
0.675
0.0509

WACC10%=0.9653*0.0503+0.0374*0.0616*0.675=0.04855459+0.00155509=0.0518 /10%/
WACC20%=0.9314*0.0503+0.0686*0.0616*0.675=0.04684942+0.00283971=0.0513 /20%/
WACC30%=0.8982*0.0503+0.1018*0.0616*0.675=0.04517946+0.00423284=0.0509 /30%/
.

0
225888
225888
0

/

EBIT

10%

29,130.0
n/a
n/a

20%

30%

22589
203299
225888
1391

45178
180710
225888
2783

67766
158122
225888
4174

28108

27086

26064

1.036

1.075

1.118

$40,166.67 $37,106.67 $35,373.00

EPS, ,

EAT
EPS=DPS
Ke

29130

0.6968
0.1319

10%
28108
9303
29472.67
0.6888
0.134
5.1401
404919.1617

20%

30%

27086
8852
25471.67
0.6800
0.1356
5.0149
409001.0081

26064
8400
22799
0.6707
0.138
4.8598
410573.7705

ROE
0.0899

22.1000

Cost of equity
0.1319
WACC
0.0520
EBIT
n/a
EPS=DPS
0.6968

10%
0.0952
22.3520
1,022.0000
0.1338
0.0518
40,166.6700
0.6888
5.1401
404,919.1617

20%
0.1019
22.6040
2,044.0000
0.1357
0.0513
37,106.6700
0.6800
5.0149
409,001.0081

30%
0.1105
22.8561
3,066.0000
0.1380
0.0509
35,373.0000
0.6707
4.8598
410,573.7705

. 10%, 20%, 30%
, 10%:
1. 13%.
2. /EPS/ 0.6888.
3. 5.14 .
ROE , ,
EBIT , .
30%- :
1. ROE 11%.
2. 5.09%.
3. EBIT 35,373
4. 410,573
5. 22.85

, ,

30%- . 30%-
,
.

.

 30%-
.

10
?
30%- ,
.