Resumen

Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones

0.985520747
0.971251142
0.964862507
1.844054824
12

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Regresin
2
1033.953748
Residuos
9
30.60484375
Total
11
1064.558592

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2

Coeficientes
0.357478856
0.099703052
0.009584094

Error tpico
3.624515516
0.005948177
0.055574247

Promedio de los cuadrados

516.9768741
3.400538195

F
Valor crtico de F
152.0279569
1.15822E-07

Estadstico t
Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95,0% Superior 95,0%
0.098628039 0.92359537 -7.8417449 8.556702591
-7.841744879 8.556702591
16.76195194 4.2847E-08 0.08624734 0.113158762
0.086247341 0.113158762
0.172455663 0.86689513 -0.1161336 0.135301773
-0.116133586 0.135301773

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Pronstico para Y
29.4540917
21.06295685
8.985441365
2.29382174
1.860535274
1.093594198
0.836683533
0.884604001
1.108900269
2.491296785
6.308765036
18.08330925

Residuos
Residuos estndares
0.785908301
0.471165123
-1.622956849
-0.972989676
-3.513441365
-2.106366647
0.87417826
0.524084435
-0.276535274
-0.165787505
0.346405802
0.207676051
1.179316467
0.707019874
0.843395999
0.505629956
0.331099731
0.198499806
0.244703215
0.146703655
-1.988765036
-1.19229778
2.796690752
1.67666271

Variable X 1 Grfico de los residuales

Residuos

4
2
0
0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

-2
-4

Variable X 1

Variable X 2 Grfico de los residuales

Residuos

4
2
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

-2
-4

Variable X 2

60

70

80

90

Variable X 1 Curva de regresin

ajustada
Y

40
20

0
0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

Pronstico para Y

Variable X 1

Variable X 2 Curva de regresin ajustada

40
30
20
10
0

Y
Pronstico para Y

20

40

60

Variable X 2

80

100

Docente: Elmer Rodriguez Soriano

Estudiante: Alfredo Carrasco Ayaviri
Grupo: 3

Modelo Mensual
Dias

A1

30

A2
0.0001

A3
0.00209

So

0.1008

Ao: 1972
Ene
Feb
Mar
Abr
May
Jun
Jul
Ago
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dic

P obs (mm)
285.2
202.0
80.0
12.5
9.5
2.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
14.0
52.0
170.0

ETp obs
69
59
68
72
58
56
50
55
68
77
80
81

Q obs
210
135
38
22
11
10
14
12
10
19
30
145

Ao: 1973
Ene
Feb
Mar
Abr
May
Jun
Jul
Ago
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dic

P obs (mm)
144.0
160.0
126.0
0.0
8.0
0.0
0.0
11.0
4.0
40.5
21.0
68.5

ETp obs
72
68
59
68
60
59
55
51
60
76
79
89

Q obs

Q sim

Ao: 1974
Ene
Feb
Mar
Abr
May
Jun
Jul
Ago
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dic

P obs (mm)
190.0
188.0
135.0
28.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.8
0.0
27.5
11.0
128.0

ETp obs
68
65
62
65
61
61
51
59
65
80
80
85

Q obs

Q sim

Q obs mm
30.24
19.44
5.472
3.168
1.584
1.44
2.016
1.728
1.44
2.736
4.32
20.88

Q sim
28.9
20.9
8.8
2.1
1.9
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
2.2
6.0
18.0

100

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

1.35205
-1.45708
-3.35260
1.07341
-0.30022
0.15948
0.74093
0.46178
0.18318
0.52671
-1.71191
2.90499
28.90160

Docente: Elmer Rodriguez Soriano

Estudiante: Alfredo Carrasco Ayaviri
Grupo: 3

Q obs vs Q sim
35
30

Caudal (mm)

25

20
caudal obs

15

caudal sim
10
5
0
1

10

11

12

Mes

Residuos Resultantes
4.00000
3.00000
2.00000
1.00000
0.00000

Series1
0

-1.00000

-2.00000
-3.00000
-4.00000

10

12

14

Docente: Elmer Rodriguez Soriano

Estudiante: Alfredo Carrasco Ayaviri
Grupo: 3

Ene
E real
Q sim
St

0.686561471
28.8879546
355.6

284.5

E real
Q sim
St

2.061320215
20.89707618
534.7

199.9

E real
Q sim
St

3.540250102
8.824597003
602.3

76.5

E real
Q sim
St

4.208562597
2.094588573
608.5

8.3

E real
Q sim
St

3.424061346
1.884217713
612.7

6.1

E real
Q sim
St

3.328073495
1.280523793
610.1

-1.3

E real
Q sim
St

2.959224749
1.275071825
605.8

-3.0

E real
Q sim
St

3.233232279
1.266222145
601.3

-3.2

E real
Q sim
St

3.968646683
1.256818285
597.1

-3.0

E real
Q sim
St

4.463265075
2.209289944
604.5

9.5

E real
Q sim
St

4.69236
6.031911536
645.7

47.3

E real
Q sim
St

5.065089113
17.97500671
792.7

164.9

Feb

Mar

Abr

May

Jun

Jul

Ago

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dic

Docente: Elmer Rodriguez Soriano

Estudiante: Alfredo Carrasco Ayaviri
Grupo: 3

PRECIPITACION OBS
300.0
250.0
200.0
1972
150.0

1973
1974

100.0
50.0
0.0
1

10

11

12

EVAPOTRANSPIRACION OBS
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

1972

1973
1974

10

11

12

CAUDALES
35
30
25

20

1972

15

1973
1974

10
5
0

10

11

12