ETF VNM: D bo review Q3/2014

Nguyn Thanh Lm MBKE

(Lu : y ch l bn draft anh ch MG tham kho trc, yu cu ch lu hnh ni b)

Cp nht nhanh s liu tnh n thi im hin ti ca ETF VNM cho thy xc sut qu ny s:
-

Khng c thay i ln v tng th quy m ti th trng Vit Nam

Khng loi bt m no ang c trong danh mc
Thm mi FLC v IJC vo danh mc
C xo ng tng i trong t trng cc c phiu ca danh mc sau review.

1. Khng c thay i ln v quy m ti th trng VN:

- T trng hin ti ca ETF VNM dnh cho cc c phiu ang nim yt ti TTCK Vit Nam l
69,58%, thm vo qu ny ang trong tnh trng discount nh (-0,13%). Theo quy
nh ti thi im kt thc review ETF VNM s a t l c phiu VN v ng 70% gi tr
ti sn qu.
- Gi nh khng c thm bt k bin i no tnh n ngy cht d liu (29/8), qu ny
s ch mua rng nh 0,29% NAV ca qu, tng ng 1,71 triu USD (36,3 t ng),
mt con s khng ng k.
2. Khng loi bt m no ang c trong danh mc
- Kt qu kim tra tnh n hin ti cho thy cha c bt k m c phiu Vit Nam no
ang nm trong danh mc ca ETF VNM b vng cc iu kin loi ra khi danh
mc.
- Mt s t cc c phiu b st gim thanh khon v di mc 0,6 triu USD nh VCB (0,54
triu USD), BVH (0,48 triu USD) , GMD (0,32 triu USD) , DRC (0,48 triu USD) v PPC
(0,47 triu USD). D vy tt c cc c phiu ny u c gi tr giao dch trung bnh 3
thng 2 k lin trc cao hn mc 0,6 triu. S vi phm ny v vy s khng b
Vaneck tnh n loi b cc c phiu nu trn.
3. Thm mi FLC v IJC vo danh mc
- C FLC v IJC tnh theo data n ngy hm nay u tha tt c cc yu cu c
thm vo danh mc ca ETF VNM.
- Nu khng c g t xut xy ra, xc sut Vaneck thm hai c phiu ny vo danh mc l
rt cao.
- Xc sut thm FLC cao hn IJC do hu ht cc yu t xem xt nh vn ha, gi tr
giao dch, free-float v room nc ngoi ca FLC u cao hn IJC. Trong trng hp
Vaneck quyt nh ch thm mi mt c phiu, xc sut la chn FLC s cao hn IJC.

4. C xo ng tng i trong t trng cc c phiu ca danh mc sau review.

- Do c kh nng thm mi n 2 c phiu vo danh mc t ny, t trng cc c phiu
trong danh mc ca ETF VNM sau review s c s bin ng tng i.
- C th chng ti m phng kt qu review ca qu vi vic thm mi FLC v IJC nh
bng chi tit sau:
Lng CP
Vaneck
nm gi

Gi tr VNM
nm gi trc
review (VND)

T trng
trc
review

T trng
sau
review

Gi tr VNM nm
gi sau review
(VND)

Gi tr tng/gim
(VND)

Lng CP cn
mua/bn

83,500

9,691,090

807,626,249,438

6.45%

8.00%

1,001,130,000,000

193,503,750,563

2,317,410

19,200

45,659,921

878,738,102,200

7.02%

8.00%

1,001,130,000,000

122,391,897,800

6,374,578

HOSE

77,500

11,780,954

915,177,293,438

7.31%

7.00%

875,988,750,000

(39,188,543,437)

(505,659)

VCB

HOSE

25,700

32,840,628

845,994,715,425

6.76%

6.50%

813,418,125,000

(32,576,590,425)

(1,267,572)

PVS

HNX

37,500

22,148,450

808,105,003,438

6.46%

6.00%

750,847,500,000

(57,257,503,438)

(1,526,867)

BVH

HOSE

42,500

16,488,306

692,489,408,275

5.53%

4.99%

623,922,159,177

(68,567,249,098)

(1,613,347)

DPM

HOSE

29,800

21,152,690

633,957,094,813

5.07%

4.44%

555,141,387,356

(78,815,707,456)

(2,644,822)

PVD

HOSE

101,000

5,516,956

558,496,967,175

4.46%

3.92%

490,730,449,979

(67,766,517,196)

(670,956)

3.32%

2.92%

365,007,883,336

(50,141,682,352)

(6,190,331)

Sn

Th gi
(VND)

MSN

HOSE

STB

HOSE

VIC

ITA

HOSE

8,100

51,167,651

415,149,565,688

HAG

HOSE

25,500

15,993,215

405,582,651,638

3.24%

2.87%

359,167,922,505

(46,414,729,133)

(1,820,185)

VCG

HNX

14,000

28,526,897

397,459,066,063

3.18%

2.81%

351,725,148,746

(45,733,917,317)

(3,266,708)

SHB

HNX

9,000

41,439,200

373,832,405,713

2.99%

2.62%

328,454,625,557

(45,377,780,155)

(5,041,976)

FLC

HOSE

13,200

0.00%

2.02%

252,398,790,787

252,398,790,787

19,121,121

OGC

HOSE

11,700

22,715,256

266,226,812,750

2.13%

1.87%

234,058,925,625

(32,167,887,125)

(2,749,392)

GMD

HOSE

37,800

5,351,136

201,677,248,350

1.61%

1.42%

178,139,325,204

(23,537,923,146)

(622,696)

DRC

HOSE

54,000

3,330,080

178,579,466,925

1.43%

1.27%

158,369,140,893

(20,210,326,032)

(374,265)

IJC

HOSE

15,000

0.00%

1.15%

144,331,836,336

144,331,836,336

9,622,122

PPC

HOSE

20,500

7,793,790

162,351,231,013

1.30%

1.12%

140,709,841,145

(21,641,389,867)

(1,055,678)

PVT

HOSE

15,600

10,826,135

164,945,358,763

1.32%

1.08%

135,215,688,354

(29,729,670,409)

(1,905,748)

Cc m c mua mnh: FLC (+252,4 t ng) , MSN (+193,5 t ng), IJC (+144,3 t
ng) v STB (+122,4 t ng)
Cc m cn li a phn b bn rng vi cng khc nhau.