Giao Trinh Kinh Te VI Mo Cua DHBKHN

Din n Sinh Vin Hnh Chnh
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KINH T HC V M
CHNG 1
I CNG V KINH T HC V M V S QUN L NH NC
V KINH T
I. MT S KHI NIM C BN
1. Kinh t
Ngy nay, t kt bao hm ni dung phong ph hn nhiu. l:
- S lm ra ca ci vt cht tho mn nhu cu.
- S hon thin v ti u ho vic t chc s dng cc ngun lc, t
chc lng xhi mt cch khoa hc, c hiu qu.
- S cn i tch ly v tiu dng pht trin v phng ri ro.
Kinh t l tng th mt b phn cc yu t sn xut (vn, t ai, k thut,
thng tin,) v cc quan h con ngi vi con ngi trong qu trnh sn xut trc
tip, lu thng phn phi, trao i tiu dng ca ci vt cht trong mt giai on
nht nh ca lch s, m mu cht ca vn l s hu v li ch.
2. Nn kinh t quc dn
Theo cch tip cn h thng nn kinh t c xem nh l mt h thng hay
h thng kinh t v m bao gm ba yu t: u vo, u ra v hp en kinh t v
m.
- Cc yu t u vo gm:
+ Nhng tc ng t bn ngoi, bao gm ch yu cc bin s phi kinh t:
thi tit, dn s, chin tranh,...
+ Nhng tc ng t chnh sch, bao gm cc cng c ca Nh nc nhm
iu chnh hp en kinh t v m, hng ti cc mc tiu nh trc.
- Cc yu t u ra bao gm: Sn lng, vic lm, gi c, xut- nhp khu.
l cc kt qu bin do hot ng ca hp en kinh t v m to ra.
- Trong yu t trung tm ca h thng l hp en kinh t v m, hay cn
gi l nn kinh t v m (Macroeconomy) hoc l nn kinh t quc dn. Hai lc
lng quyt nh s hot ng ca hp en kinh t v m l tng cung v tng cu.
Vy nn kinh t quc dn (hay h thng kinh t v m) l tng th cc
mt, cc yu t, cc b phn cu thnh lc lng sn xut ca mt quc gia, t
ca ci ca x hi c to ra, lu thng, phn phi v s dng.
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Nn KTQD l b phn c bn ca ton b tn ti x hi, cn hot ng kinh
t l ni dung c bn ca ton b hot ng x hi. Hay, nn kinh t quc dn l
khng gian kinh t - x hi, c xc nh bi cc du hiu sau:
a. V hnh thc tn ti ca ch th hot ng kinh t
Ch th hot ng kinh t gm:
- H gia nh (ngi tiu dng cui cng).
- Chnh ph (ngi tiu dng i din).
- Doanh nghip (ngi sn xut).
- Ngi nc ngoi.
b. V tnh cht hot ng ca ch th kinh te
Bn ch th trn c coi l ch th hot ng kinh t v chng c nhng
hot ng c tnh cht c th sau:
- H u l ngi thc hin nhu cu tiu dng thng qua hnh vi mua t
to ra cu v hng ha.
- H u l ngi bn: nh bn t liu sn xut, sn phm, thm ch c sc
lao ng (sc lao ng cng l mt loi hng ha c bit) to ra cung hng
ha.
- H l cc nh u t: nh u t vo sn xut kinh doanh ca ccDN, CP,
v thm ch ngi tiu dng bnh thng cng l nh u t khi h gi tin ngn
hng, mua c phiu, cng tri,
- H to ra cc ngun thng tin (hay l nhng yu t thng tin ca th
trng) v phi thng xuyn cnh tranh vi nhau.
c. V ngun lc tin hnh hot ng kinh t (u vo ca nn kinh t)
- Gm ti nguyn quc gia.
- H thng ti chnh tin t.
- H thng c s h tng, ti sn v d tr quc gia.
- Ngun nhn lc ca mt t nc.
- Cc thnh tu v tin b v khoa hc cng ngh.
d. V khng gian kinh te
Khng gian kinh t c hiu nh l mt thc th kinh t - x hi c xc
nh bi tnh cn i, tnh m v tnh pht trin ca n. Gm:
- Phng thc sx (vi t cch l mt bng c s, l nn tng quy nh s
pht trin chung ca c nn kinh t).
Phng thc sn xut x hi l s thng nht v tc ng qua li gia lc
lng sn xut v quan h sn xut x hi hp thnh.
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x hi pht trin th quan h sn xut phi ph hp vi tnh cht v trnh
pht trin ca lc lng sn xut.
- C cu kinh t (mi quan h v s lng v cht lng gia cc b phn,
thnh phn tham gia vo s phn cng lao ng x hi v cu to nn nn kinh t
nh t trng ca cc khu vc kinh t, s lng quy m cc doanh nghip trong cc
ngnh ngh,).
- Cc qu trnh kinh t (s vn ng, tng tc, lu chuyn, trao i cc kt
qu kinh t trong c cu kinh t v b chi phi bi cc qui lut kinh t x hi nh
u t, sn xut, lu thng phn phi, tch ly, tiu dng).
- H thng thng tin v lut php.
e. V phng thc quan h
L phng thc th trng, vi ni dung cn bn l mua v bn (quan h
cung cu).
3. Nn kinh t th trng
3.1. Th trng
y l ni din ra cc hot ng trao i hng ha, trao i thng tin v la
chn chuyn dch u t.
* Vai tr ca th trng:
- Thng tin v cung - cu, to iu kin mi quan h cung cu v hng
ha c cn i c v lng v cht.
- To iu kin cho vic trao i hng ha v dch v din ra thun li.
- Thc y s chuyn mn ha v phn cng lao ng x hi: thng qua th
trng cc ch th kinh t pht hin v khng nh li th ca mnh trong khng
gian, thi gian nht nh.
- Gip cho cc ch th kinh t c s la chn phng n hot ng SXKD
ti u thng qua vic hch ton hiu qu hot ng.
H lun phi thng qua vic tr li 3 cu hi : Sn xut ci g? Sn xut nh
th no? Sn xut cho ai?
3.2. Quan h th trng
y l quan h mua bn, l s trao i ngang gi.
3.3. Nn kinh t th trng
l nn kinh t hng ha pht trin cao, c a ra bi cc nt c trng
sau:
- Qu trnh lu thng vt cht trong nn kinh t x hi c thc hin ch
yu bng phng thc mua bn.
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- Ngi tham gia mua bn c quyn t do nht nh trong vic la chn:
ni dung mua bn, i tc mua bn, gi c trao i.
Ni quyn t do nht nh v vic la chn ba ni dung trn phc thuc vo
vic mua bn cc hng ha php lut cho php, gi c giao ng trong khung m
th trng c th chp nhn c, chn i tc ph hp.
3.4. Cc loi hnh kinh t th trng
* Do kh nng sn xut ca nn kinh t c gii hn, ng thi do ngun ti
nguyn khan him cho nn con ngi cn phi gii p ba vn c bn sau (k c
i vi cc QG giu hay ngho hoc bt c mt t chc KT no):
- Sn xut ci g, bao nhiu (What): mi x hi cn phi quyt nh xem
nn sn xut nhiu thc phm hay sng n, nhiu hng cao cp hay hng cht
lng thp, nhiu hng dnh cho tiu dng hin ti hay hng u t phc v cho
sx v tng lai,.
- Sn xut nh th no (How): Nn sn xut bng ngun lc no, dng loi
k thut g, ai l ngi quyt nh cho qu trnh sn xut ?
- Sn xut cho ai (Who): X hi nn phn chia thu nhp cho mi ngi
ngang bng nhau hay chnh lch nhau, nn c mt t ngi giu bn cnh nhiu
ngi ngho hay khng, nn danh nhiu thu nhp cho quan chc hay bc s v
cng nhn,
3.4.1. Nn kinh t th trng thun ty (Market Economy)
l nn kinh t theo ui cc mc ch kinh doanh thun ty.
Tuy nhin, nn kinh t th trng thun ty cng c rt nhiu nhc im:
nh c quyn, c ln nut c b, lm pht v tht nghip, dch v cng v cc li
ch cng cng b b ri, lun trong tnh trng khan him hoc thiu ht, cui
cng l khng hong v tng khng hong ca c nn kinh t.
3.4.2. Nn kinh t ch huy (command Economy)
Ngc li kinh t th trng, trong nn kinh t ch huy CP l ngi quyt
nh ton b, in hnh l nn kinh t Lin X c. Vit Nam trc y cng nh
hng theo m hnh kinh t ch huy. Trong nn kinh t ny, y ban k hoch nh
nc l trung tm iu khin mi hot ng kinh t i theo mt k hoch thng
nht. Mi ngi ch cn thc hin nhim v ca mnh theo s phn cng trc tip
hay gin tip ca CP.
tng ny ny sinh t hai ngun:
- c vng xy dng mt x hi khng c ngi bc lt ngi, mt x hi,
trong , Mt ngi v tt c, tt c v mt ngi.
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- c vng thot khi nhng cuc khng hong c tnh chu k khng th
trnh ni ca nn kinh t th trng thun ty. in hnh l J. Keynes (1884 1946).
Tuy nhin, nn kinh t ny cng c rt nhiu nhc im:
- Nhng cn bnh ca nn kinh t th trng nu trn c th xut hin c lc
tng trng ln lc suy thoi nh khng hong, tht nghip, lm pht,
- Mc ch tng GNP khng phi l mc ch cui cng ca s nghip kinh
t ton x hi. M mc ch cn l mi quan h v li ch gia cc tng lp nhn
dn trong mt chnh th kinh t - chnh tr - x hi nht nh.
- Trng phi Keynes mi ch xem xt phn ng ng thi ca doanh
nghip, dn chng trong vn kinh t kha cnh ca gi c, tin cng, lm pht,
tht nghip. Tc cha ch trng n mt cung ca nn kinh t, nn cha xt c
n nh hng ca lc lng sn xut, ca tin b khoa hc cng ngh, n tng
cung.
3.4.3. Nn kinh t th trng hn hp (nn kinh t hn hp)
- nh ngha:
Nn kinh t hn hp l nn kinh t trong c s kt hp ti a nhng u
im ca c ch th trng vi s iu tit ca nh nc nhm t c h thng
cc mc tiu kinh t - chnh tr - x hi mt cch hiu qu nht trong iu kin c
th ca mt t nc (Hay y l nn kinh t m ba vn c bn c gii quyt
va c s can thip ca CP va theo c ch th trng).
4. ng cong sn lng tim nng (ng gii hn kh nng sn xut)
4.1. Quy lut s dng ngun lc trong sn xut ca ci vt cht
Trn thc t, mi ngun lc u c hn, thm ch c th c coi l khan
him hoc ang tr nn khan him (Ngun lc khan him: ti mt mc gi P > 0
nht nh m ngi mua sn sng mua nhng lng cung khng p ng c
lng cu).
S khan him l do:
- Ti nguyn ang dn b cn kit cng vi qu trnh gia tng sn xut.
- Nhu cu ca con ngi lun pht trin c v lng ln v cht.
V vy, mc tiu cn bn ca kinh t hc v m l nghin cu v ch ra cho
x hi cch s dng c hiu qu cc ngun lc c hn mt mt, cc nhu cu ca
x hi vn c p ng ti a, mt khc, tit kim c mi ngun lc trong mt
tng lai lu di.
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4.2. ng cong sn lng tim nng (ng gii hn kh nng sn xut PPF - Production Posibility Frontier)
* Khi nim: "ng gii hn kh nng sn xut (PPF) phn nh cc
mc sn lng ti a m nn kinh t c th t c khi s dng ton b nng
lc sn xut ca quc gia".
* Cch dng: Gi s chia hng ho ra lm hai nhm
V d: Ly hai loi hng thng dng l la v vi. Nu s dng ht kh nng
sn xut th c th to c mc sn lng nh sau:
Bng 1.1: Nhng kh nng thay th khc nhau
Phng n sn xut
A
B
C
D
E
F
Vi
Lao ng Sn lng
0
0
1
5
2
9
3
12
4
14
5
15
La
Lao ng
Sn lng
5
300
4
280
3
240
2
180
1
100
0
0
T ta xy dng c ng PPF La
(Production Posibility Frontier)
300
28
0
24
0
18
0
C
ng
PPF
10
0
E
F
5
1
2
1 1
4 5
ng PPF c dng cong li ra ngoi so vi gc ta . Hnh dng do quy

lut gim dn quyt nh.
Nu nh nng sut bin tng dn th ng PPF cong lm vo gc to .
Nu nh nng sut bin khng i th ng PPF l ng thng.
4.3. Chi ph c hi
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Do cc ngun ti nguyn l hn hp, nn x hi hoc tng con ngi lun
phi la chn xem s tin hnh nhng hot ng c th g trong s nhng hot
ng c th c tin hnh: c mt cun sch hay i xem phim, ngh h hay i
lm kim tin,. . .
Khi mt ngi quyt nh lm mt vic g , tc l b mt c hi lm
cc vic khc, v kh nng mt i gi l chi ph c hi.
4.4. ngha ca ng PPF
- ng PPF m t mc sn xut ti a m nn kinh t c th t c khi
s dng ton b nng lc sn c.
- Nn kinh t nm bn trong ng PPF phn nh cn c ngun ti nguyn
khng c dng n v ngc li.
Theo thi gian, s lng cc yu t sn xut v cng ngh c th thay i,
nn bn thn ng gii hn kh nng sn xut cng c th dch chuyn ra ngoi
hoc vo trong.
- Nu c s di chuyn t im ny sang im khc trn PPF l vic chuyn
i c cu kinh t.
- Nu ng PPF dch chuyn ra pha ngoi th c s tng trng KT.
T ngha , vi vai tr ca mnh, Nh nc phi quan tm gii quyt
vic:
- B tr s dng ngun lc x hi sao cho va bng sn lng tim nng,
khng cho im sn lng nm bn trong hay bn ngoi, m phi nm trn
ng cong .
- Vn nng cao kh nng s dng ngun lc sao cho y c chng
v bn phi.
II. KHI NIM, I TNG, PHM VI V PHNG PHP LUN CA
KINH T HC V M V S QUN L NH NC V KINH T
1. Khi nim v h thng cc khoa hc kinh t
1.1. Khi nim kinh t hc
Nu tip cn mt cch tng qut, th c hai khi nim kinh t hc v m
tng i y sau:
Kinh t hc l tng th cc khoa hc v cch t chc v x l cc quan
h gia ngi v ngi trong hot ng kinh t s dng mt cch ti u cc
ngun lc ca x hi, lm tha mn ti a nhng nhu cu hin ti v tng lai
ca con ngi
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Hay Kinh t hc (economics) l mn hc nghin cu xem x hi s dng
nh th no ngun ti nguyn khan him sn xut ra nhng hng ho cn
thit v phn phi cho cc thnh vin ca x hi".
Ty theo cch thc s dng m kinh t hc c chia thnh: Kinh t hc
thc chng va kinh t hc chun tc
* Kinh t hc thc chng (Positive Economics)
Nhm m t v gii thch nhng hin tng thc t xy ra trong nn kinh t.
N tr li cu hi: Th no? Ti sao?
V d: T l lm pht v tht nghip nm 2007 l bao nhiu? iu g lm
cho tht nghip cao nh vy?
V sao gi tht c gim trong khi gi tht g tng.
Mc ch: Gii thch l do v sao nn kinh t hot ng nh vy? D on
phn ng? Tc ng thc y c li?
* Kinh t hc chun tc (Normative Economics)
Nhm a ra quan im nh gi hoc la chn cch thc gii quyt cc vn
kinh t trong thc t. N tr li cu hi: Tt hay xu? Cn hay khng? Nn th
ny hay th kia,....
V d: Chnh ph tng kinh ph quc phng th tt hay xu? Cn tr lng
cho k s bng bao nhiu cng nhn,...
Trong kinh t hc thc chng, bn hy vng s hnh ng nh nhng nh
khoa hc khch quan, tng t nh nhng hnh ng khoa hc khc. Cn trong
kinh t hc chun tc th yu t khch quan b bp mo theo quan im c nhn.
1.2. H thng cc khoa hc kinh t
1.2.1. Xt theo tm khi qut chung
Kinh t hc c chia thnh hai phn ngnh ln l kinh t hc vi mo v kinh
t hc v m.
* Kinh t hc vi m ( Microeconomics)
Nghin cu s hot ng ca nn kinh t bng cch tch bit
tng phn.
N ch yu kho st hnh vi ng x ca cc ch th ring bit nh tng
doanh nghip, tng h gia nh trong tng loi th trng khc nhau.
* Kinh t hc v m (Macroeconomics)
" Nghin cu s hot ng ca nn kinh t nh mt th thng nht".
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- N c lm n gin ho nn kinh t b qua cc tc ng ring bit ca
tng c nhn trong th trng;
- N ch n s tng tc tng qut gia cc ch th trong vic quyt nh
cc vn kinh t.
N khng cp n th trng lao ng ca nhng ngi th mc hay
nhng v Bc s m cp n th trng lao ng ni chung, c quyt nh bi
tng mc cung v tng mc cu ca nn kinh t.
Nh vy kinh t v m ch yu gii quyt cc cu khi ln nh: mc sn
xut, mc tht nghip,....
* Mi quan h
- Kt qu phn tch vi m l c s i n m hnh kinh t v m;
- To nn s ho nhp nht nh gia vi m v v m;
- S phn chia rnh mch gia vi m v v m ngy cng tr nn kh khn,
ranh gii rt mong manh.
1.2.2. Xt theo lnh vc ton b nn kinh t: c kinh t hc ca ton b nn
KTQD, kinh t hc ca tng ngnh (kinh t cng nghip, nng nghip,
thng mi,)
1.3. Phng php nghin cu ca kinh t hc
Kinh t hc p dng cc phng php nghin cu:
- Phng php quan st (v khi nghin cu cn phi thu thp s liu).
- Phng php phn tch.
- Phng php tru tng ha.
- Phng php thng k.
2. Kinh t hc v m v c trng ca n
2.1. i tng, phm vi nghin cu ca kinh t hc v m
- Ch nghin cu mt quan h gia ngi v ngi trong qu trnh sn xut.
Mc ch ca mi s nghin cu nn SX x hi u nhm tm ra cch tt
nht SX c nhiu ca ci vt cht nht, SX x hi c hiu qu nht. Bao
gm 2 cch chnh sau:
+ Cch t chc con ngi thnh lc lng ti u tc ng c hiu lc
nht vo i tng sn xut l th gii t nhin, phn cng, hip tc,
+ Cch s dng lc t nhin tc ng vo t nhin mt cch c hiu qu
nht: s dng sc gi, nc, vo thay sc ngi trong vic ch ng thin nhin.
- Kinh t hc v m nghin cu mt t chc con ngi thnh lc lng ti
u tc ng vo gii t nhin nhng ch nghin cu quan h ny tm v m.
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- T gic , Kinh t hc v m nghin cu cc vn c bn sau v
nghin cu mi quan h gia cc vn :
+ Nghin cu cu trc tng th nn kinh t, ca lc lng kinh t ton x hi
c lin quan n vic to ra kt qu cui cng m x hi mong mun.
+ Nghin cu mc tiu v m ca hot ng kinh t (c hiu l mc tiu
ton din, ton dn, ton x hi ca hot ng kinh t).
+ Nghin cu nhng quy lut vn ng ca nn kinh t quc dn v kt cc
ca cc vn ng nh quy lut cung - cu lao ng, tin t, v tch ly hng ha
v dch v,
- Trn c s cc quy lut , kinh t hc v m tm ra mi quan h cn i
tm v m cn bo m cho s vn ng kinh t t c cc mc tiu nu.
- i su hn na, c th thy, kinh t hc v m:
Ch ra ch ca s hot ng ca ton b nn kinh t v con ng cho ton
b nn kinh t t c ch . C th:
+ L mn hc cp n cc quy lut KT khch quan, mqh li ch v cc
ng thi kinh t tng th ca mt x hi.
+ Nghin cu cc yu t c bn c tc ng bao trm gm: gi c, li sut, t
gi hi oi, mi trng kinh doanh,
+ Nghin cu cc hin tng kinh t c bn nh: chu k kinh doanh, tht
nghip, lm pht.
+ Nghin cu cc vn lin quan n s pht trin lu di ca c x hi
nh: tch ly - tiu dng, tit kim v u t, cn cn thanh ton,
+ Cc chnh sch v cng c kinh t ca CP tc ng vo nn KTQD t
c mc tiu ra.
2.2. c trng ca kinh t hc v mo
- Mt l, kinh t hc v m nghin cu nhng con ng s dng ti a hiu
qu cc ngun lc kinh t.
- Kinh t hc v m c tnh gi nh hp l
l tnh gin lc hp l ca cc nhn t khi nghin cu cc hin tng
kinh t. C ngha l chng ta phn tch, l gii mt yu t no , ngi ta thng
c nh nhng nhn t khc. Nhng s gi nh l chp nhn c trn thc t
(trong iu kin khng gian v thi gian xc nh) v khng lm sai lch bn cht
ca vn ang nghin cu.
- Kinh t hc v m c tnh nh lng
Trong nhiu trng hp, nu ch dng li cc kt lun nh tnh th vic
nghin cu khng gip g cho cuc sng. Vic nh lng kt qu trong nghin cu
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kinh t gip chng ta hiu vn mt cch xc thc, r nt hn v bn cht ca
cc din bin kinh t, tm ra cc nguyn nhn mt cch chnh xc.
- Kinh t hc v m c tnh h thng
Kinh t hc v m nghin cu cc vn , cc hot ng kinh t trong mi
lin h trc tip hay gin tip vi cc vn , cc hot ng thuc mi lnh vc
khc, din ra trong phm vi quc gia v quc t. Kinh t hc v m khng coi kt
qu no l kt qu sinh ra t mt nguyn nhn, khng c quyt nh no ch da
trn mt thng s v yu t u vo.
- Kinh t hc v m c tnh tng i
Theo quan nim tng i ca kinh t hc v m, mi quy lut, xu hng
ca cc ng thi kinh t ch mang tnh ph bin m thi. Bi v, khng c quy lut
no l trit , khng c ngoi l. V kinh t hc nghin cu da trn quy lut s
ng.
3. Kinh t hc v m v s qun l nh nc v kinh te
3.1. Vn qun l nh nc v kinh t
* u, nhc im ca kinh t th trng
Nn kinh t th trng c nhiu u im m nn kinh t ch huy khng th
t c nh:
- Th trng gip cho tng DN s dng ngun ti nguyn mt cch c hiu
qu, bi v mi doanh nghip lun tch cc tm cch h thp chi ph gia tng li
nhun.
- Nh yu t cnh tranh, h tch cc ci tin, i mi, nng cao cht lng
sn phm.
- Ngoi ra, th trng cng gip cho nn kinh t SX sn phm vi s lng
v c cu ph hp vi yu cu ca x hi.
R rng c ch th trng khng phi l mt c ch hn n. Th nhng th
trng cng khng phi l mt c ch hon ho. Bn cnh nhng u im trn, n
c nhiu nhc im trong vic gii quyt 3 vn c bn. C th k n nhng
nhc im chnh sau:
- To ra khong cch giu ngho. Tnh trng gi l s bt bnh ng trong
phn phi thu nhp.
- T ng to nn cc chu k kinh doanh (business cycle), nu c cc yu t
lm hn ch hiu qu s lm cho nn kinh t tng trng chm.
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- C nhiu tc ng ngoi vi (externalities) c hi, nh vic thi kh c,
ting n, nc nhim bn lm nhim mi trng; vic khai thc ba bi ngun
ti nguyn,
- Thiu vn u t cho hng cng cng (public). Phn ln cc loi hng ho
ny kh hoc khng th thu li, cho nn khng kch thch cc doanh nghip u t.
- Tnh trng c quyn trong kinh t, iu l c hi v n khng kch
thch ci tin, i mi, v n sn xut sn lng t v bn vi gi cao, v n tng
thm chnh lch trong phn phi thu nhp.
- Thng tin th trng b sai lch v cnh tranh khng lnh mnh.
- Th trng khng dn dt c s thay i c cu kinh t theo hng pht
trin.
- cc nc pht trin, mt b phn ln trong nng dn b tch bit mt
phn ra khi th trng hng ho - tin t phong ph ca c nc.
Vi cc nhc im ta thy r rng th trng khng hon ho. V vy, c l
thuyt v thc t u khng nh rng s can thip ca nh nc l cn thit.
3.2. ngha ca kinh t hc v m i vi qun l nh nc v kinh t
T kinh t v m, nhng ngi lm cng tc qun l nh nc v kinh t c
th tm thy:
- Cc vn kinh t v m m bn thn cc ch th ca nn kinh t khng
th t gii quyt c, cn c s can thip ca nh nc.
- T kinh t hc v m Nh nc c th tm c cc con ng, nhng c
hi hin ti cng nh tim nng m Nh nc c th s dng can thip vo i
sng kinh t.
- Cung cp nhng quy lut vn hnh ca nn kinh t th trng, gip
ngi qun l kinh t v m c th nm vng c th iu khin c s vn
ng ca nn kinh t theo mc ch t ra.
- Cung cp cc chnh sch, cng c m nh nc c th s dng iu tit
s vn ng v m ca nn kinh t nh chnh sch ti kha, tin t, thu nhp, ngoi
thng.
CHNG 2
CU TRC V M V NHNG MC TIU C BN
CA NN KINH T QUC DN
I. CU TRC V M CA NN KINH T QUC DN
1. Tip cn theo yu t cu thnh hot ng kinh t
Gio trnh Kinh t V M
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Tin t
Chi tiu
v thu
Tng
cu
Cc lc
lng khc
Sn lng
GNP thc
Cng n
vic lm v
tht nghip
Lao ng
Vn
Tng
cung
Gi c v
lm pht
Ti nguyn
Cc yu t
u vo
Cc yu t
Hp en kinh t v
u ra
m
2. Tip cn theo cc loi ch th hot ng kinh t
2.1. Khi nim
Ch th hot ng kinh t chnh l ngi mua v bn trn th trng.
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2.2. Cc ch th kinh t th trng
phn tch mt cch c th hn vai tr ca cc th ch ca h thng kinh t
hn hp, cc nh kinh t chia tt c cc tc nhn trong nn kinh t thnh 4
nhm, nhm gii thch hnh vi v phng thc thc hin cc chc nng ch
yu ca tng nhm, l:
- Ngi tiu dng: L tt c cc c nhn v h gia nh, h mua hng ho v
dch v tho mn nhng nhu cu thc phm, qun o, dch v i li,
- Cc doanh nghip
- Ngi nc ngoi
- Chnh ph
2.3. C hi can thip ca Nh nc vo nn KTQD qua chi tiu ca Chnh
ph
a. Bng tiu dng ca Chnh ph, Nh nc c th hng dn ton x
hi theo hng ti u.
b. Bng tiu dng ca Chnh ph Nh nc c th iu tit sn xut x
hi
Chnh ph l mt ch th kinh t quan trng, l ngi tiu th hng ha v
dch v ln ca quc gia. hu ht cc nc, t l chi tiu ca Chnh ph so vi
tng sn lng c khuynh hng tng theo thi gian.
3. Tip cn theo mt s gic khc
Theo cc gic khc, cu trc v m ca nn KTQD gm cc khu, cc
ngnh, cc b phn nh sau:
a. Theo cc khu ca qu trnh ti sn xut m rng
Sn xut - Lu thng - Tiu dng
b. Theo cc ngnh cu thnh nn KTQD, gm:
Cng nghip, nng nghip, xy dng, giao thng vn ti,
c. Theo ngun lc to nn ca ci vt cht, c: ti nguyn, d tr quc gia,
kt cu h tng, doanh nghip,
II. NHNG MC TIU V M CA NN KINH T QUC DN
1. C s tng trng bn vng
Tng trng bn vng l s tng trng n nh, lin tc.
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C s ca s tng trng n nh l c s vt cht k thut ca nn kinh t,
l cc thnh tu tin b chung khc ca ton x hi, to nn mt x hi, c gi
l x hi pht trin.
S tng trng kinh t c o bng cc ch tiu sau y:
Tng sn phm quc dn (GNP - Gross National Product)
Tng sn phm quc ni (GDP - Gross Domestic Product)
Sn phm quc dn rng (NNP - Net National Product)
Sn phm quc ni rng ( NDP - Net Domestic Product)
Thu nhp quc dn ( Y - National Income)
Thu nhp kh dng (YD - Dispossible Income)
Chng c chia thnh hai nhm:
Nhm 1: Theo lnh th l GDP - NDP.
Nhm 2: Theo quyn s hu l GNP - NNP - Y - YD.
1.1. Tng sn phm quc dn (GNP)
1.1.1. Khi nim
"GNP l ch tiu phn nh gi tr bng tin ca ton b sn phm cui
cng do cng dn mt nc SX ra trong khong thi gian nht nh, thng l
1 nm".
Sn phm trung gian l nhng loi sn phm c dng lm u vo cho sn
phm khc v ch s dng mt ln trong qu trnh sn xut.
Sn phm cui cng l nhng loi sn phm cn li ngoi sn phm trung
gian. Xt v cng dng, nhng sn phm ny dng p ng nhu cu cui cng
ca nn kinh t, l nhu cu tiu dng, u t v xut khu.
Mi loi sn phm u c th ng vai tr l sn phm trung gian hoc sn
phm cui cng tu theo mc ch s dng ca con ngi. Chng hn, khi dng c
ti, in, lm thnh c ng hp th phn c, v in l sn phm trung
gian. Nhng nu c ti v in c dng nu n hoc xut khu th phn
c v in ny li l sn phm cui cng ca nn kinh t.
Gi tr sn phm cui cng:Tng gi tr sn phm hng ha v dch v sn
xut ra c gi l tng xut lng (Gross Output)
Do gi c l mt thc o co dn. Lm pht thng xuyn a mc gi
chung ln cao. Do vy, GNP tnh bng tin c th tng nhanh chng khi gi tr thc
ca tng sn phm tnh bng hin vt c th khng tng hoc tng rt t.
khc phc nhc im ny, cc nh kinh t thng s dng cp khi
nim:
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- GNP danh ngha ( GNPn), o lng tng sn phm quc dn sn xut ra
trong mt thi k, theo gi c hin hnh, tc l gi c ca cng thi k .
- GNP thc te (GNPr), o lng tng sn phm quc dn sn xut trong mt
thi k, theo gi c nh mt thi k c ly lm gc.
Cu ni gia GNPn v GNPr l ch s gi c, cn gi l ch s lm pht (D)
tnh theo GNP.
GNPn
GNPn
Hay GNPr =
D =
x100
D
GNPr
Ch tiu GNPn v GNPr thng c dng cho cc mc tiu phn tch khc
nhau. Chng hn, khi mun nghin cu mi quan h ti chnh, ngn hng, ngi ta
thng dng GNPn; khi cn phn tch tc tng trng kinh t ngi ta thng
dng GNPr.
1.1.2. Cch tnh GNP
GNP c mi quan h cht ch vi GDP, v vy mun tnh GNP phi tnh
c GDP.
1.2. Tng sn phm quc ni (GDP)
1.2.1. Khi nim
"GDP l ch tiu phn nh gi tr bng tin ca ton b sn phm cui
cng c SX ra trn lnh th mt nc tnh trong khong thi gian nht nh,
thng l 1 nm".
Lnh th mt nc: GDP th hin mc SX t c do tt c n v

thng tr mt nc khng phn bit quc tch.
1.2.2. Phng php tnh GDP
Mc ch: Tm cch tnh GDP theo mc gi ca tng nm, v trong
mc gi c c thu gin thu m cc doanh nghip cng v gi
bn sn phm.
a. Cc khi nim c bn
- Khu hao (De): L khon tin dng b p gi tr hao mn ca TSC.
TSC : L nhng loi ti sn c gi tr ln (>10 triu VND), c s dng
trong thi gian di (tc s dng c nhiu ln).
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- u t (I) : L lng tin mua sm t bn mi, gm: u t c nh vo
kinh doanh, u t c nh vo nh v u t vo hng tn kho (nh my
mc, thit b, nh xng, cng vi chnh lch tn kho):
Chnh lch tn kho = tn kho cui nm - tn kho u nm
(Hng tn kho hay hng d tr l nhng hng ha hin c gi li sn
xut hay tiu th sau ny)
- Tiu dng(C): L lng tin m h gia nh dng mua hng tiu dng
(qun o, thc phm,).
C c chia thnh 3 b phn ch yu: hng mau hng (nh qun o, thc
phm,...), hng lu bn ( t, ti vi,...) v dch v (ct tc, khm bnh,...).
- Tit kim(S): L phn cn li ca thu nhp kh dng sau khi tiu dng.
- Thu (TA): L ngun thu quan trng nht ca Chnh ph. Thu c hai loi:
Trc thu v gin thu.
+ Thu trc thu (Td): trc tip nh vo thu nhp ca cc thnh phn
dn c.
Cc loi thu trc thu ph bin l thu thu nhp c nhn, thu thu nhp
doanh nghip (thu li tc) nh vo li nhun ca cc doanh nghip, thu di sn
hay thu thng nh vo ti sn tha hng c do ngi cht li, thu
cng ng (community charge) nh vo ngi dn sng ti 1 a phng, dng
chi tiu cho cc cng trnh cng cng.
+ Thu gin thu (Te): Gin tip nh vo thu nhp, ngi mua hng l
ngi chu thu.
- Chi tiu ca Chnh ph: Bao gm chi mua hng ha dch v (G) v chi
chuyn nhng(TR).
+ Chi mua hng ha v dch v ca CP l nhng khon chi tiu ca Chnh
ph c p ng li bng mt lng hng ha hay dch v no . Thng gm 2
loi chi cho tiu dng (Cg), chi cho u t (Ig)
+ Chi chuyn nhng: l nhng khon chi tiu ca Chnh ph khng i
hi bt c lng hng ha hay dch v no i lu tr li.
Chi chuyn nhng l cc khon Chnh ph dng tr lng hu, tr cp
tht nghip, tr cp thng binh v gia nh lit s, tr cp hc bng cho sinh vin,
tr cp ngi ngho, b l cho cc doanh nghip quc doanh,
- Xut khu (X): L lng tin thu c do bn hng ha v dch v ra nc
ngoi.
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- Nhp khu (IM): L lng tin dng mua hng ha v dch v t nc
ngoi.
Tng gi tr xut nhp khu gi l tng kim ngch xut nhp khu.
- Tin lng(W): L lng thu nhp nhn c do cung cp sc lao ng.
- Tin thu (r): L khon thu nhp c c do cho thu t ai nh ca v
cc loi ti sn khc.
Thc cht gm hai phn: Khu hao ti sn cho thue v phn li tc ca ch
s hu ti sn. Tuy nhin, ngi ta gp c li v tch hai phn ny rt phc tp.
- Tin li (i): L thu nhp nhn c do cho vay tnh theo mt mc li sut
nht nh.
- Li nhun (P - ): L khon thu nhp cn li sau khi tr i chi ph.
b. Dng chu chuyn kinh t
Thu nhp t vic cung hng ha, dch
v
cung hng ha, dch v
DNg
hhi
p
H G
Cung dch v, yu t sn xut
Thu nhp t dch v v yu t sn xut

Trong :
* Dng gi tr hng ha v dch v
Gi tr gia tng (VA): L lng gia tng trong gi tr ca hng ho do kt qu
ca qu trnh sn xut.
VA = Gi tr sn lng ca DN - Gi tr sn phm trung gian
VA bao gm: Khu hao (De), tin lng (W), tin thu (r), tin li (i), thu
gin thu (Te) v li nhun ( ).
* Dng chi tiu
- Chi mua hng ha v dch v ca h gia nh(C), tr cho cc doanh nghip.
- Chi u t ca Doanh nghip (I): gm khu hao(De), u t rng (In).
- Chi mua ca Chnh ph (G): gm chi cho tiu dng(Cg) v chi cho u t
(Ig), khng bao gm cc khon chi chuyn nhng (TR).
- Chi tiu ca nc ngoi mua hng ha sn xut trong nc (X); chi ph
ca ngi trong nc mua hng ha ca ngi nc ngoi (IM).
Tng chi tiu = C + I + G + X- IM
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* Dng thu nhp
Doanh
thu
Chi tr cho vic s dng

ngun lc phc v SX
Thu nhp
DN
Doanh
nghip
Np thu
gin
thu(Te)
Thu nhp cho h

G
Chi b p hao
mn
ti sn(De)
H gia nh
TSC
c gi li
DN
Chnh
nhp
Tng thu nhp = Thu
r +ph
W
+ i ca
+ P CP
+ De + Te
c. Phng php tnh GDP
T dng chu chuyn gi cho ta 3 cch tnh khi lng hot ng kinh t, c
th tnh theo:
(1) Gi tr ca cc hng ha v dch v c sn xut ra (GTGT)
(2) Mc thu nhp t cc yu t sn xut (lng phn phi hay thu nhp)
(3) Gi tr ca khon chi tiu cho hng ha v dch v (Lung chi tiu hoc
lung sn phm).
Theo nh ngha v GDP v l lun trn, ta c:
* GDP theo phng php sn xut hay gi tr gia tng
GDP = VAi
Vi VAi l sut lng ca DNi - Chi ph trung gian DNi.
* Phng php phn phi hay theo lung thu nhp
GDP = r + W + i + P + De + Te
* Tnh theo phng php chi tiu hay lung sn phm
GDP = C + I + G + X- IM
Tm li:
- C ba phng php phi cho cng mt kt qu.
- Nu kt qu khc nhau l do d liu thu thp khng chnh xc.
- Mt s kh khn khi tnh GDP Vit Nam.
+ Mt l, hin tng trn thu - khai bo gim v kt qu sn xut.
+ Hai l, Doanh nghip qu nh khng c h thng s sch.
+ Ba l, phi c tnh sn phm t cung cp nn rt kh chnh xc.
+ Bn l, phng php thu thp s liu khng tt v cn b thng k khng
lm ht trch nhim,...
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d. ngha ca cc ch tiu GDP , GNP, mi quan h gia chng v cch tnh
GNP t GDP
* ngha
GDP ni ln hin thc kinh t trn lnh th quc gia, cha ni n ch th
ca hin thc . Qua GDP ngi ta bit c trn mt quc gia no , thc lc
kinh t c c bao nhiu.
Tri li, GNP ni ln thc thu kinh t ca mt nc, kh nng tht v kinh t
ca cng dn nc , bi v GDP khng bao gm kt qu ca hot ng ca cng
dn nc s ti tin hnh nc ngoi.
Nu GDP > GNP, c ngha l vai tr quc t v kinh t ca nc nh khng
cao so vi vai tr kinh t quc t ti nc nh (sc mnh kinh t ca nc nh cn
yu).
Nu GDP < GNP th ngc li.
Mi quan h GDP v GNP:

GNP = GDP + l thu nhp rng t nc ngoi
Thu nhp rng t nc ngoi = Thu nhp t cc yu t XK - Thu nhp t cc
yu t nhp khu
V GNP bao gm GDP v phn chnh lch v ti sn t nc ngoi nn
GNP bnh qun u ngi l thc o tt hn v s lng hng ha v dch v m
mi ngi dn ca mt nc c th mua c. Cn GDP bnh qun u ngi l
thc o tt hn v s lng hng ha v dch v c sn xut ra tnh bnh qun
cho mt ngi dn. iu ny gii thch v sao cc thng k ca NHTG thng a
ra cc c tnh v GNP, trong khi cc nc tnh bnh qun u ngi li dng
GDP.
1.3. T tng sn phm quc dn n sn phm quc dn rng (NNP)
- Sn phm quc dn rng (NNP - Net National Product): Phn nh phn
gi tr mi sng to, do cng dn mt nc sn xut ra.
NNP = GNP - De
Gi tr mi sng to l phn gi tr mi c to ra trong qu trnh sn xut sn
phm. N khng k n gi tr sn phm trung gian v KH TSC c chuyn
dch vo gi tr sn phm, v phn ny c to ra t giai on sn xut trc
(Trong h thng ti khon thu nhp quc dn, khu hao c gi l tiu hao
t bn c nh (xp x 10%GNP), v khu hao t bn l chi ph sn xut sn
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phm cho nn kinh t. Do , mt s nh kinh t cho rng NNP l ch tiu tt
hn phn nh phc li kinh t).
1.4. Thu nhp quc dn (Y)
- Thu nhp quc dn(Y):
Phn nh mc thu nhp m cng dn mt nc to ra, khng k phn tham
gia ca Chnh ph (ch yu di dng thu gin thu, chim khong 10%NNP, phn
ny to ra s chnh lch gia gi ngi tiu dng tr cho hng ha v gi m
doanh nghip nhn c. V DN khng bao gi nhn c phn chnh lch v
thu ny, nn n khng phi l thu nhp ca DN, v vy sau khi tr Te khi NNP
ta thu c Y)
Y = NNPmp - Te = GNP - De - Te
Mt s nh kinh t cho rng thu gin thu (Te) ch c tc dng lm tng gi
sn phm. C khi thu nhp to ra l khng i nhng do CP tng thu lm cho gi
TT tng v do lm tng NNP theo gi th trng. V vy, ch tiu NNP theo gi
TT khng phn nh ng n thu nhp do cng dn mt nc to ra. T hnh
thnh ch tiu Thu nhp quc dn Y. Y cho bit mi ngi trong nn KTQD
kim c bao nhiu thu nhp.
1.5. Thu nhp kh dng (YD)

L thu nhp cui cng m dn chng c ton quyn s dng theo thch c
nhn.
YD = Y - Td + TR
1.6. Tc tng trng cao v n nh
Tc tng trng l % tng GDP hoc GNP hng nm. Tc c
nh gi trong s so snh vi:
- Tim nng kinh t ca t nc.
- Tc tng dn s: Nu tim nng ln, tc tng dn s cao th tc
tng trng phi cao.
- Cch tnh cc ch tiu v tc tng:
Tc tng hng nm phn nh % thay i ca sn lng nm sau so vi
nm trc.
Ch tiu nm (t) - ch tiu nm
(t-1)
x100
Vt =
Ch tiu nm (t-1)
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Trong o: Vt l tc tng ca mt ch tiu no nm t.

- Tc tng bnh qun:
Phn nh % thay i sn lng nm sau so vi nm trc, tnh trung bnh
cho mt giai on nhiu nm.
V
=
(n -1) Ch tiu nm cui
x10
0
Ch tiu nm u
2. S tng trng ca nn kinh t da trn c s gii quyt tt cc vn
kinh t, khoa hc, k thut v cng ngh
c c c s cho s tng trng bn vng, trn tm v m, nn kinh t
cn phi phn u t c cc mc tiu v cng nghip ha hin i ha nn kinh
t, th hin trn cc mt sau y:
- Trnh tp trung ha lc lng sn xut mt cch ti u.
- Trnh chuyn mn ha v cc hnh thc thng nht mi lin h sn xut
lin ngnh mt cch c hiu lc nht.
- Trnh phn b lc lng sn xut theo lnh th hp l nht.
- To dng c c s nguyn liu hng hu hoc thit lp c quan h
quc t vng mnh nhm gii quyt ch ng vn nguyn liu.
- C s vt cht k thut hin i, trnh c kh ha, t ng ha cao,
- Xy dng c kt cu h tng hng hu cho sn xut v cho i sng.
3. n nh kinh t - x hi
3.1. Gii quyt tt vn vic lm
Th hin :
- T l ngi tht nghip thp nht (gn xp x vi t l tht nghip t
nhin), th hin kh nng ln trong vic gii quyt vic lm ca x hi.
- H s s dng qu thi gian lao ng trong nm cao nht so vi tng qu
cn s dng.
- S chnh lch v h s s dng qu thi gian lao ng ca cc loi lao
ng x hi khng ln.
- To c iu kin lm vic tt.
3.2. Thc hin c s phn phi cng bng
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Phn phi cng bng th hin cc mt sau y
- Phn phi li nhun cng ty gia cc c ng
- Phn phi thu nhp tp th gia cc thnh vin cng lao ng.
- Phn phi thu nhp gia ch v th trong cc quan h lao ng lm thu.
- Phn phi li ch gia ngi s dng cng sn vi ch nhn cng sn l
ton x hi, nh nc l i din.
- Phn phi c hi lm kinh t gia mi thnh vin trong x hi.
3.3. Gp phn ng k cho phc li x hi
4. Gii quyt tt vn gi c
- S hp l v t gi gia cc loi sn phm, dch v.
- S bnh n vt gi
- S n nh t gi hi oi.
- Cn bng cn cn thanh ton quc t.
III. S CN THIT CA NH NC TRONG VIC BO M CC
MC TIU TNG TRNG V PHT TRIN
t c cc mc tiu trn, cn c nh nc v:
1. Mu thun gia tnh ton din ca mc tiu v m vi tnh phin din ca
mc tiu vi m
- Tnh ton din ca mc tiu v m th hin ch, kt qu t c trn
gic ton x hi phi l kt qu cui cng, thc s c gi tr s dng. Cn i
vi doanh nghip, h ch cn bn c sn phm v c li nhun l t c mc
ch kinh doanh. Tuy nhin trn gic ton b nn KTQD, kt qu mi doanh
nghip ch l bn thnh phm khng cu thnh GDP.
- Mc tiu v m cn th hin ch, mc tiu v m khng ch l mc tiu
kinh t m cn l mc tiu x hi, trong khi , cc doanh nhn theo ui mc tiu
vi m ch quan tm n hiu qu kinh t m thi.
2. Mu thun gia tnh ton x hi ca mc tiu v m vi tnh c nhn ca
mc tiu kinh t vi m
l mu thun gia mt bn l doanh nhn chy theo li ch c nhn, bc
lt ti nguyn, vi mt bn l nh nc lun ng v pha li ch quc gia, tm mi
cch bo v v pht trin ngun li.
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3. Mu thun gia tnh lu di ca mc tiu v m vi tnh hin hu ca mc
tiu vi m
CHNG 3
TNG CUNG - TNG CU
I. CUNG V TNG CUNG
1. Khi nim
Cung l s lng hng ho m ngi bn sn sng cung ng vi cc mc
gi khc nhau.
Tng cung l tng khi lng sn phm hng ha v dch v cui cng ca
nn sn xut x hi cung cp cho x hi trong mt thi gian nht nh
(k hiu l AS).
Tng cung lin quan n sn lng tim nng (Qp - Potential Output), Sn
lng tim nng (potential output) l mc sn lng t c trong khi nn
kinh t tn ti mt mc tht nghip bng vi "tht nghip t nhin".
Hay sn lng tim nng l mc sn lng m nn kinh t s sn xut
c nu tt c cc yu t sn xut c s dng ht.
Tht nghip t nhin (Natural Unemployment) bao gm tht nghip c hc v
tht nghip c cu.
2. Cc loi tng cung
2.1. Xt theo tnh hin thc
- Tng cung kh nng (tim nng): l kh nng cung ng ti a ca nn
sn xut x hi.
- Tng cung thc t: L cung hoc s xut hin do nhu cu thc t ca th
trng.
Thng thng ASr thng nh hn ASp.
2.2. Xt theo tnh sn sng ca tng cung
- Tng cung trong ngn hn (ASSR): l ton b cng sut thit k ca nn
sn xut x hi.
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- Tng cung di hn (ASLR - LAS): l cung cha sn sng, nhiu yu t
cu thnh cung ch mi dng cc yu t ring r.
Tng cung di hn l ng thng song song vi trc tung v ct trc honh
mc sn lng tim nng. (trn th l ng LAS).
V mt di hn, chi ph u vo iu chnh th cc doanh nghip khng
cn ng lc tng sn lng. Gi c s tng ln nhanh chng p ng vi s
thay i ca tng cu. Hay ni cch khc, trong thi gian di, mc sn lng b
quy nh (iu chnh) bi khi lng t bn, lao ng v cng ngh hin c. Nh
vy, n khng ph thuc vo mc gi do ng LAS l ng thng ng.
2.3. Xt theo tnh kh thi ca AS
- Tng cung ch quan: l tng cung mong mun ca cc doanh nhn, n
lun c xu hng vn ti AS tim nng.
- AS kh thi (hin thc): l cung c th c th trng bao tiu ht.
- AS hiu qu: l AS m doanh nhn c li nht nu thc hin.
3. Cc yu t cu thnh AS
l cc yu t cu thnh lc lng sn xut. iu khc vi c cu ca
cung. Bao gm 4 yu t: ti nguyn, lao ng, vn, tin b khoa hc k thut.
- Ti nguyn:
Khng c ti nguyn s khng c cung, ti nguyn bao gm nhiu loi, trong
c t ai l ti nguyn quan trng nht.
- Lao ng:
y l nhn t quan trng nht v c ngha quyt nh nht. Tng cung tng
ln hoc gim xung l do s thay i v s lng v cht lng ca lc lng
lao ng.
- Vn:
Bao gm vn vt cht, vn nhn lc v tin t, y cp ch yu n vn
vt cht nh my mc, thit b, v cc sc t nhin b con ngi chinh phc,
tham gia cng con ngi trong qu trnh khai thc v ch bin ti nguyn.
- Tin b k thut: y l nhn t c nh hng rt ln n mc tng tng cung.
4. Cu trc ca tng cung
AS gm hai phn l cung trong nc v cung cho nc ngoi.
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Cung trong nc l phn p ng nhu cu th trng trong nc. chnh
l phn cn li ca GDP sau khi tr i phn xut khu v phn sn phm khng
th phn phi c (b phn ny gm b phn tng trng t nhin ca ngnh
lm nghip, chn nui trong GDP).
Cung cho nc ngoi l tng gi tr xut khu tnh theo thng k ca Hi
quan.
Tng
cung
x hi
Cung
trong
nc
Tng gi tr SX
= trong nc (tr
b phn khng
th phn phi
c)
Cung
nc
ngoi
Tng gi
tr xut
khu
5. Cc nhn t nh hng n cung thc t

- Gi c hng ha (P): khi gi c thp, cc hng kinh doanh c th sn xut
t hn sn lng tim nng. Vi mc gi cao hn th ngc li c ngha l gi
c cng cao th mc tng cung s cng ln.
- Chi ph sn xut: nu chi ph cng cao, cc hng kinh doanh s sn xut t
hn sn lng tim nng v ngc li. Nh vy, chi ph sn xut cng thp th
mc tng cung cng ln, bi v chi ph sn xut lin quan n mc doanh li
ca cc hng sn xut.
- Gi c hng ha tng t hoc thay th.
- Mc tiu li nhun ca nh sn xut: nu li nhun tng h s tng cung
v ngc li.
- Nng lc trnh sn xut: cc hng kinh doanh lun mun tng sn
lng ca mnh t ti sn lng tim nng. Do vy, tng cung cn chu nh
hng ca cc yu t lm tng sn lng tim nng l L, K, R (natural
resources), T.
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6. Biu cung (bng cung)
Biu cung l mt bng m t mi quan h gia s lng hng ho m cc
doanh nghip sn sng v c kh nng cung cp mi mc gi vi iu kin cc
yu t khc c gi c nh.
V d: Biu cung v du ho
Gi bn (USD/thng)
Lng cung (nghn thng/thng)
50
36
40
32
30
24
20
14
10
0
7. ng tng cung
7.1. Khi nim
ng cung (AS - Aggregate supply) l ng m t mi quan h gia s
lng hng ho m ngi bn sn sng cung ng vi cc mc gi khc nhau.
Khi mc gi cng cao (cc yu t khc khng i) th ngi bn cng cung
cp thm nhiu hng ho cho th trng. V vy ng cung l ng dc ln.
Khi gi bn tng (gim) th mc cung hng ho s di chuyn tng ln
(gim i) dc theo ng cung.
Cc yu t lm dch chuyn ng cung: Chi ph sn xut ca gi c hng ho
khc, khoa hc cng ngh, nng sut lao ng...
7.2. th ng AS v gi c sn phm dch v
P
LAS
AS
Sn lng
tim nng
ngha:
Q
- V tr ngang ca AS miu t gii hn cc tiu s lng hng ha hoc dch
v m ngi sn xut s bn ra trong mt s iu kin nht nh. Khi cc iu kin
ny thay i AS s dch sang tri hoc sang phi.
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- Hng i ln ca ng cong biu th s lng hng ha hoc dch v m
ngi sn xut s bn ra tng mc gi trong iu kin xc nh.
- ng AS c c im:
+ Khi Q < Qp: th AS hi dc.
+ Khi Q > Qp: th AS rt dc.
iu ny ni ln rng, di mc sn lng tim nng, mt s thay i nh
v gi c u ra s khuyn khch cc doanh nghip tng nhanh sn lng p
ng nhu cu ang tng ln. Bi v, trong ngn hn, ng trc gi u vo c nh,
h c th ng thi tng sn lng v tng gi cht t thu li nhun.
Chng t dc ng AS ni ln tng quan gia tc tng gi vi tc
tng cung, th hin cng thc sau:
Q
Q
Es
P
P
Trong : P l mc tng gi
Q l mc tng sn lng cung ng.
+ dc AS tng Es >1, c ngha l li sut tng dn (C ngha l s
thay i nh ca gi dn n s thay i ln hn ca lng cung)
+ dc AS gim Es <1, c ngha l li sut gim dn (C ngha l khi
gi c thay i ln nhng ngi sn xut phn ng nh vi s thay i ca gi c).
+ Khi Es = 0, th AS khng c tnh co dn (AS vung gc vi trc honh Ngha l cung ca hng ha l mt s lng c nh bt k gi c nh th no).
+ Khi Es = AS hon ton co dn (AS vung gc vi trc tung c
ngha l khi sn lng thay i v hn nhng gi khng thay i hoc thay i rt
t).
7.3. ng tng cung v th trng lao ng
a. ng tng cung Trong kinh t th trng, gi c ph thuc vo nhiu yu t. Cc yu t ny
quyt nh v tr, dc ca ng AS. C hai yu t chnh l tin cng v quy
m ti sn c nh.
- Tin cng (W): P ph thuc nhiu W, c bit trong ngn hn. V cc
nc c nn kinh t th trng pht trin, tin cng c t trng cao trong gi thnh
sn phm. Tin cng li ph thuc vo trng thi ca th trng lao ng, tc l
ph thuc vo cung - cu lao ng v tnh trng tht nghip, chui din tin l:
T l tht nghip cao W Thu nhp gim C AD AS tht
nghip tng.
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- Quy m ti sn c nh:
S lng ti sn c nh tng ln s lm tng sn lng tim nng v gim
gi c ca sn phm.
Tuy nhin, trong ngn hn s thay i ca tin cng (vic lm - tht nghip)
l yu t ch yu quyt nh s thay i gi c.
Vy, tin cng trong th trng thay i nh th no? Vn ny, cc nh
kinh t hc c in v kinh t hc trng phi Keynes c nhng quan im tri
ngc nhau:
* Trng phi c in
Cho rng tng cung l mt ng thng ng, ct trc honh mc sn
lng tim nng Y*. ng tng cung da trn gi thuyt rng, cc th trng,
trong c bit l th trng lao ng, hot ng mt cch hon ho.
Gi c s iu chnh linh hot sao cho s lng hng ho sn xut ra ng
bng s lng m mi ngi mong mun mua vo.
Tin cng cng linh hot iu chnh cho n khi no tt c mi ngi mun
lm vic ti mc tin cng u c vic lm v cc doanh nghip s dng ng
s lng nhn cng m h mun thu.
Khi tin cng iu chnh linh hot th th trng lao ng lun lun trng
thi cn bng, khng c tht nghip. Nn kinh t trng thi ton dng nhn cng.
Mt khi ton b lc lng lao ng c s dng ht, th khng th gia tng sn
lng trn mc hin c, v th tng cung s ct trc honh mc sn lng tim
nng.
Do nhn cng c s dng ht, cc hng cnh tranh nhau ginh git
nhn cng, y lng v gi ln cao, p ng nhu cu ang tng ln: ng tng
cung v th m rt dc v s thng ng ti mc sn lng tim nng.
* Trng phi Keynes
ng tng cung theo trng phi Keynes l ng nm ngang. ng ny
ng rng cc doanh nghip sn sng cung ng mi khi lng sn phm cn thit
mc gi cho (P*).
ng tng cung Keynes da trn gi thit l cc th trng trong , c
bit l th trng lao ng khng phi lc no cng cn bng, v trong nn kinh t
lun c tnh trng tht nghip.
Do lun c tht nghip, cc DN c th thu mn bao nhiu nhn cng cng
c vi
P mc lng cho.
AS Do , h cng c th cung ng cho mi nhu cu m
khng cn tng gi.
P
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Y*
P*
AS
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T nhng trnh by trn, c nhn xt:

(1) 2 trng hp c bit ca ng tng cung phn nh 2 thi cc tri
ngc nhau ca tng cung. Nguyn nhn c bn dn n s khc nhau l do
quan nim v s hot ng ca gi c v tin cng trong nn KTTT. Theo trng
phi c in, gi c v tin cng l linh hot. Theo Keynes chng l cng nhc.
(2) ng tng cung c in l thng ng, cn ng tng cung ca
Keynes l ng nm ngang. Vy trong thc t ng tng cung ngn hn c
dc nh th no?
Hu ht cc nh kinh t hc ngy nay cho rng th trng lao ng s iu
chnh t t cho n khi t trng thi cn bng. Ni cch khc, gi c v tin cng
khng hon ton linh hot v cng khng hon ton cng nhc. ng tng cung
ph hp vi thc t hn l ng c dc nht nh v ph thuc vo rt nhiu
yu t.
b. ng tng cung thc t ngn hn
ng tng cung thc t ngn hn c xy dng trn c s kt hp ba mi
quan h sau, trong thi k ngn hn:
- Mi quan h gia sn lng v vic lm.
- Mi quan h gia vic lm v tin cng.
- Mi quan h gia tin cng v gi c.
* Mi quan h gia sn lng v vic lm, hay l gia sn lng v lao ng,
th hin trong hm sn xut:
Hm sn xut theo lao ng phn nh s ph thuc ca sn lng
(u ra) vo lng lao ng c s dng (yu t u vo) trong iu kin cc
yu t khc c nh.
Y = f (L,...)
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Y - sn lng thc t.
L - lao ng c s dng vo sn xut.
th:
Y=f
(L...)
Y
Yo
L
Lo
Khi tng dn lng lao ng c s dng th nng sut bin ca lao ng

c khuynh hng gim dn. Do , khi lng lao ng s dng tng u th sn
lng s tng t dn i, lm cho th ca hm sn xut Y = f(L) c dng nh hnh
trn.
Trong : Nng sut bin ca lao ng l con s phn nh mc sn
lng tng thm khi tng thm mt n v lao ng c s dng.
MPL = Y/L
* Mi quan h gia vic lm v tin cng
n lt mnh, wr trong th trng lao ng vn ng phn ng li nhng
mt CB trong th trng ny. Nu c TN, w r , nu cn s dng nhiu lao ng th
wr. Tuy vy, cng khng hon ton linh hot. N c iu chnh sau mt thi
gian.
ng Phillip n gin m t mi quan h gia tin cng v tht nghip c
dng:
W = W-1(1 -.U)
(1)
W - tin cng.
W-1 - tin cng thi k trc.
- H s phn nh nhy cm gia tin cng v tht nghip.
U - t l tht nghip
U = 1 - L/L*
(2)
L - lao ng c s dng vo sn xut.
L* - lao ng mc ton dng.
Mt khc, gia lao ng v sn lng cng c mi quan h. Mi quan h
ny c th hin r nu thay L v L* bng cch:
L = a.Y
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L* =a.Y*
(3)
a - s gi cng c s dng sn xut 1 n v sn lng.
Thay (3, 2) vo (1), c:
W = W-1 1 + (Y/Y* - 1)
(4)
Nh vy, sn lng thc t cng cao so vi sn lng tim nng th tin
cng cng cng cao.
* Mi quan h gia chi ph tin cng v gi c
Cc doanh nghip s nh gi c cho sn phm ca h sao cho c th b p
c chi ph v c li.
Theo cch nh gi gin n, gi c ca sn phm s bng chi ph cng thm
phn li nhun tnh trn chi ph, v vy:
P = a.W(1+f )
(5)
P - gi c.
a.W - chi ph tin cng.
f - t sut li nhun ( f = li nhun/chi ph)
Thay (5) bng (4), c:
P = a.(1 +f )W-1 1 + (Y/Y* - 1)
(6)
Biu thc 6 cho thy mi quan h gia gi c, tin cng v sn lng.
7.4. ng tng cung
T (6) nuthay:
P-1 = a(1+f ).W-1
V = /Y*
Thu c:
P = P-1 1 + ( Y -Y* )
(7)
(7) l biu thc ng tng cung gin n, khi trong nn kinh t gi c v
tin cng khng hon ton linh hot. Gi c tng cng vi sn lng.
AS'
P
P-1
AS
AS"
Y
ng tng cung c 3 tnh cht sau: Y*
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- dc ca ng AS ph thuc vo .
- V tr ca ng AS ph thuc vo mc gi tiu biu ca thi k trc. N
i qua mc sn lng tim nng ti P = P-1.
- ng AS dch chuyn theo thi gian, ph thuc vo sn lng. Nu sn
lng k ny cao hn SL tim nng, th sau mt thi gian tin lng s v gi c
s tng. ng AS dch chuyn ln pha trn, n ng AS. Ngc li, ng
AS s dch chuyn xung n AS.
II. CU V TNG CU
1. Khi nim
1.1 nh ngha
Cu (D - Demand) L s lng hng ho m ngi tiu dng sn sng mua
v c kh nng mua mc gi khc nhau.
Tng cu (AD- Aggregate Demand) l tng khi lng hng ho v dch v
m cc ch th kinh t mun mua mi mc gi chung trong mt khong thi gian
nht nh v trong nhng iu kin nht nh.
1. 2. Mt s loi cu
1.2.1. Xt theo ch th cu
- Cu ca h gia nh: l cc vt phm v dch v dn dng.
- Cu ca cc doanh nghip: l TLSX nh my mc, NVL,
- Cu ca CP: Cc hng ha dch v cng cng.
- Cu ca th trng quc t: l tng gi tr xut khu tnh theo thng k ca
hi quan.
1.2.2. Xt theo chu trnh ti sn xut x hi
a. Cu u t
L nhu cu hin vt ca ton x hi ng vi vn u t trong nc vo mt
thi k nht nh (thng l 1 nm).
Kt cu:
Cu u t = cu u t TSC + cu u t TSL
Cu u t TSC l tng u t TSC trong ton x hi.
b. Cu tiu dng
L ton b HHVD dn sinh phm tr nh lng chung v nhu cu hng tiu
dng ca ton x hi trong mt thi k nht nh (thng l 1 nm).
Kt cu:
Cu tiu dng = cu tiu dng c nhn + cu tiu dng cng cng
Tm li:
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Tng cu = cu u t + cu tiu dng + cu quc t
= cu u t TSC + cu u t TSL + cu tiu dng cng
cng + cu tiu dng c nhn + tng gi tr xut khu
c. Xt theo cng dng sinh sng i vi con ngi
Gm cu n, mc, , i li,....
d. Xt theo ni dung vt cht
Cu lng thc, vt liu xy dng, in nng,...
e. Xt theo hnh thi bi hin
Cu vt cht, dch v.
f. Xt theo cng dng kinh t
Cu t liu sinh hot, cu t liu sn xut.
g. Xt theo tnh hin thc ca cu
- Cu kh nng: Cn c coi l nhu cu, mang tnh cht nguyn vng, nu
c tin s mua.
- Cu tim nng: l cu ti a trong iu kin c th ca thu nhp quc
dn.
3. Cc m hnh tng cu
3.1. Tng cu trong m hnh n gin
Gi nh nn kinh t ch c hai tc nhn ch yu: DN v HG.
Tng cu (AD - Aggregate Demand) l ton b lng hng ha v dch v
m cc h gia nh v cc doanh nghip d kin chi tiu, tng ng vi mc
thu nhp ca h.
AD = C + I
AD - tng cu.
C - chi tiu ca h gia nh.
I - cu u t ca h gia nh v doanh nghip.
Hm tiu dng C = f(Y) phn nh mi quan h gia tng tiu dng v tng
thu nhp. Hm tiu dng c dng:
C C MPC.Y
Y - thu nhp (trong m hnh gin n Y = YD).

C - Tiu dng t nh
MPC (Marginal Propensity to Consume) - tiu dng bin hay
khuynh hng tiu dng cn bin ( 0 < MPC < 1): Phn nh lng thay i ca
tiu dng khi thu nhp kh dng thay i 1 n v.
MPC =
C
(a)
Y
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Mi lin h gia tiu dng (C) v tit kim (S)
S = Y - C hay Y = C + S (V khng c CP nn Y = Yd)
T hm C suy ra c hm S:
S = -C + (1 - MPC)Y
S = - C MPS .Y
MPS - xu hng tit kim bin hay tit kim bin (Marginal Propensity to
Save): Phn nh lng thay i ca tit kim khi thu nhp kh dng thay i mt
n v (0 < MPS < 1)
MPS
=
(b)
Y
T cng thc (a) v (b) ta c h qu: MPC + MPS = 1
th:
C C MPC.Y
C
E
S=45
-C
b. Hm u t
u t t nhn c th chia lm ba dng:
- My mc - nh xng.
- Nh ca - Bt ng sn.
- Hng tn kho.
Hm u t theo sn lng I = f(Y) phn nh s ph thuc ca lng u t
d kin sn lng d kin vo SLQG.
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- Khi tng hay gim u t cng khng nh hng n sn lng quc gia.
Nu iu ng th I = f(Y) l mt hm hng. th nm ngang nh
hnh a.
I
I =I + MPI.Y
I=I
MPI
MPI
Y
Y
Hnh a: u t khng ph thuc vo
Hm u t sn
tnglng
qut:
Hnh b: u t ng bin vi
sn lng
I = I MPI .Y
MPI (Marginal Propensity to Invest): Khuynh hng u t bin hay u t
bin
: u t t nh
Ngoi ra hm u t cn c dng ph thuc vo sn lng v li sut:
I = I + MPI(Y).Y - MPI(i).i
Trong m hnh n gin ny ta gi nh:
I= I
* Hm tng cu v phng php xc nh sn lng cn bng
Hm tng cu theo sn lng cho bit mc tng cu (hay tng chi
tiu) ph thuc vo sn lng nh th no.
V : AD = C + I
AD = C MPC.Y I
Hay:
AD = (C + I) + MPC.Y (*)
Gi nh doanh nghip c th v sn sng p ng mi nhu cu ca nn kinh
t. Lc ny, sn lng cn bng s ph thuc vo tng cu. Nu tng cu gim, cc
doanh nghip khng th bn ht sn phm m h sn xut ra. Hng tn kho khng
d kin s cht ng. Ngc li, khi AD tng, h phi tung hng d tr ra bn.
Hng tn kho gim di mc d kin. Do vy, khi gi c v tin cng c nh, th
trng hng ho v dch v s t trng thi cn bng ngn hn, khi tng cu hoc
tng chi tiu d kin ng bng sn lng thc t sn xut ra trong nn kinh t.
trng thi cn bng ngn hn, lng hng tn kho khng d kin s bng
0. Ni cch khc, trong cn bng ngn hn, sn lng sn xut ra ng bng sn
lng m cc h gia nh cn tiu dng v cc DN cn u t. D kin chi
I
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tiu khng b ph v do thiu hng ho. Ngc li, cc doanh nghip cng khng
SX nhiu hn mc c th bn c. Vy, cn bng ngn hn sn lng cn bng s
l bao nhiu?
C 2 cch: Cch 1, Theo phng trnh
Y = AD
(**)
T (*) , (**) Y = (C + I) + MPC.Y
Yo =
1
1 - MPC
x (C + I )
Cch 2, Theo th:

v th hm tng cu, trc ht v hm tiu dng C, sau tnh tin
ng ny theo chiu thng ng mt on ng bng I. ng thng thu c l
ng biu th hm tng cu AD, ng AD ct ng 45 0 ti im E. Do E nm
trn ng 450, nn ti E thu nhp trn trc honh bng gi tr chi tiu trn trc
tung.
Chi tiu
AD = C + I
C=C+
MPC.Y
C+I
C
45o
Yo
O
Y
SL Yo chnh l mc sn lng cn bng. N nm tng ng vi giao im
gia ng tng cu AD = f(Y) vi ng 450.
* S nhn tng cu hay s nhn chi tiu

T:
Nu gi:
Yo
=
m=
1
1 - MPC
1
1 - MPC
x( C + I )
Hay m
=
1
MPS
Suy ra:
Yo = m (C + I)
m l s nhn chi tiu (Aggregate Expenditure Multiplier): cho bit sn lng
s thay i bao nhiu khi c thay i mt n v trong mc chi tiu khng ph
thuc vo thu nhp.
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3.2. Tng cu trong nn kinh t ng c Chnh ph
- Chi tiu ca Chnh ph v tng cu
AD = C + I + G
G - chi tiu hng ho v dch v ca Chnh ph.
Gi nh:
G =G
G
G=G
Y
- Khi cha c thu th:
AD = C + I + G = C I G + MPC.Y
Sn lng cn bng AD = Y
1
Yo= 1 MPC (C I G )
Yo =m (C I G )
iu cho thy, chi tiu ca Chnh ph cng c s nhn bng s nhn chi
tiu ca tiu dng v u t. V vy, khi G thay i mt lng l G th Y cng
thay i:
Y = m . G
Trng hp thu ph thuc vo thu nhp
T = t.Y
(t - thu sut)
YD = Y - t.Y = (1-t).Y
1
Yo =
1 - MPC(1t)
Yo = m (C I G ) (*)
(C I G)
m': s nhn chi tiu ca nn kinh t ng, c tnh ti yu t ca CP.

AD = C +
T
(*)
tiu
dng,
u
t
v
chi
tiu
ca
Chnh
ph
Chi tiu
I c cng mt s nhn.
Ni cch khc, trong nn kinh t Eng,
tc dng ca vic tng chi tiu ca Chnh
2
AD = C + I +
ph n sn lng cn bng cng ging nh tc dng ca vic h gia nh tng
G
thm tiu dng v cc doanh nghip
E tng thm u t vy.
1
Y
Y1
Y2
Tng
cu Kinh
v sntlng
cn bng ca nn kinh t ngTrang 38
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trnh
V M
c s tham gia ca Chnh ph

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3.3. Tng cu trong nn kinh t m

Trong m hnh ny, s m rng n khu vc ngoi thng, tc l khu vc
xut, nhp khu hng ho v dch v.
Gi: NX = X - IM l cn cn thng mi (cn gi l gi tr xut khu rng).
NX > 0: Thng d mu dch (xut siu).
NX < 0: Thm ht mu dch (nhp siu)
NX = 0: Cn cn thng mi cn bng
AD = C + I + G + X - IM
Gi nh:
X = X (Cn c dng: X = X - n.i)
IM = MPM .Y
MPM (Marginal Propensity to Import) l xu hng nhp khu cn bin
Hm IM cn c dng: IM = M + MPM.Y
th:
M
IM = + MPM.Y
Y
AD = C + I + G + X + MPC (1-t) - MPM .Y
Yo =
x( C + I +G +
1 - MPC(1-t) + X )
MPM
(C I G X )
Yo =m
Gio trnh Kinh t V M
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th:
Chi
AD = C + I +
G
tiu
E2
E1
AD = C + I + G + X IM
45o
Y
Y1
Y2
th tng cu v sn lng trong
nn kinh
t m c dc nh hn dc
ca nn kinh t ng v h s gc ca n nh hn h s gc ca ng kia mt
lng l MPM.
42. Cc yu t chi phi cu
42.1. Gi c ca hng ha dch v: gi c v cu nghch bin
42.2. Gi c hng ha tng t hoc c kh nng thay th
P hng ha thay th i vi mt mt hng no bin ng, th cu v hng ha ny
s bin ng theo v s bin ng din ra theo hng thun chiu.
42.3. Thu nhp ca ngi tiu dng
YD tng th AD tng v ngc li.
42.4. S lng ngi mua trn th trng
S ngi tiu dng cng ng th AD cng ln v ngc li.
42.5. S thch ca ngi tiu dng
y l mi quan h t l thun, v quan h ny rt kh nh lng.
4 2.6. S bin ng ca chnh c cu tng cu
Nh trn bit tng cu gm ba b phn hp thnh l cu v u t, cu
tiu dng v nhu cu nc ngoi. Nhng cu u t v cu tiu dng l nhng
nhn t quyt nh tng cu.
a. S bin ng ca cu u t v nh hng ca n ti tng cu
Cu u t t l thun vi AD.
u t tng s lm bin i ni dung vt cht ca tng cu: Cu u t tng
lm cho t l tch ly s tng ln, t l tiu dng gim xung cc sn phm phc
v u t tng nh nguyn, nhin vt liu, tng ln t nn sn xut s
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chuyn t nn sn xut nhiu t liu sinh hot sang nn sn xut nhiu t liu sn
xut.
b. S nh hng ca cu tiu dng n tng cu
* Cc nhn t chi phi cu tiu dng
- Tng cung: y l nhn t c bn nht, quyt nh s gia tng qu tiu
dng, v v c bn tiu dng b hn ch bi trnh pht trin ca sn xut.
- T l cc b phn khi phn phi thu nhp quc dn.
Sn xut pht trin v thu nhp quc dn tng ln mi ch l tin tng
qu tiu dng.
Trong iu kin nht nh, s tng ca qu tiu dng cn do t l gi tr sn
xut cui cng dnh cho tch ly v tiu dng quyt nh.
Nguyn tc xc nh mc ti a ca qu tiu dng l phi m bo mc ti
thiu ca qu tch ly ngha l phi m bo cho cc doanh nghip tin hnh ti
sn xut gin n mt cch bnh thng. Mc ti thiu ca qu tiu dng do c
cu dn c v t l tng dn s t nhin quyt nh. Nguyn tc xc nh mc ti
thiu ca qu tiu dng l phi m bo mc tiu dng bnh qun u ngi trong
thi gian k hoch khng thp hn mc ti thiu. Nu thp hn mc ti thiu th s
nh hng ti vic ci thin t cht ngi lao ng.
- Gi tr, gi tr s dng v gi c ca hng tiu dng:
Gi tr ca hng ha th hin ng cp cht lng, gi c t l nghch vi vi
cu tiu dng.
- Mt s nhn t khc: th ch phn phi thu nhp quc dn l mt nhn t
quan trng c nh hng ti vic hnh thnh qu tiu dng trong thc t l thu,
ch tin lng, tin cng ti thiu, tm l, tp qun,.
* nh hng ca cu tiu dng ti tng cu
Cu tiu dng tng gim tch ly gim u t gim tng cu.
Cu tiu dng gim tng tch ly tng u t tng tng cu.
42.7. S nh hng ca cu xut khu ti tng cu
Xut khu (X) tng ln th tng cu tng v ngc li.
Ngoi ra, cn c mt s nhn t khc tc ng ti AD l: nhp khu (IM),
mc cung tin (MS), tit kim (S), thu trc thu (Td).
5. Bng cu, lng cu v ng cu
Bng cu (biu cu) l bng m t s bin thin lng cu trong mi tng
tc vi mt nhn t no m lng cu c quan h nhn qu.
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Lng cu l s lng mt loi hng ha no m ngi tiu dng mun
mua vi mt mc gi c nht nh trong mt iu kin nht nh ca cc nhn t
khc.
V d: Biu cu v du ho
Gi bn (USD/thng)
Lng cu (nghn thng/thng)
50
18
40
20
30
24
20
30
10
40
* ng tng cu (AD)
ng cu l ng m t mi quan h gia s lng hng ho m ngi
tiu dng sn sng mua v c kh nng mua vi cc mc gi khc nhau.
V khi lng hng ho t l nghch vi gi c, nn ng cu dc xung v
pha phi. Mi quan h t l nghch gia gi c v sn lng c gi l lut cu.
Lut cu tn ti hay ng cu dc xung l do:
- Khi gi ca mt mt hng no gim th s ngi c kh nng mua s
tng ln; khi gi tng ln th ngi mua s gim i;
- Khi gi gim xung th bn thn ngi tiu dng mun mua nhiu hn.
P
A
B
C
E
AD
- Khi gi ca hng ho thay i th s din ra s di

Q chuyn ca cc mc cu
trn ng cu ca chnh hng ho .
- cong ca AD th hin s bin thin ca mc ph thuc ca cu vo
gi. ng AD lun c dng cong (hyperbol) chng t mc ph thuc ca cu
vo gi tng dn.
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cong ca AD th hin s co dn ca cu, k hiu l Ed.
Ed = (Q/Q)/( P/P)
Khi Ed = 0, cu hon ton khng co dn (AD vung gc vi trc honh)
Ed = l cu hon ton co dn (AD vung gc vi trc tung).
Nu ng AD thng, c gc nghing no vi c hai trc tung - honh th
c ngha l tc tng, gim cu bng tc gim, tng gi.
Cc yu t khc vi gi khi thay i th s din ra s dch chuyn ca ng
cu. Chng hn, khi gi hng ho thay th tng lm cho ng cu dch chuyn
sang tri, ngc li ng cu dch chuyn sang phi.
III. S CN BNG AD - AS
1. th cn bng cung cu
Nn kinh t t c trng thi cn bng khi AD = AS
AD
Yp
AS
E1
P1
Y1
Khi tng cung (AS) hoc tng cu (AD) dch chuyn th im cn bng s
thay i. Hai ng ny dch chuyn khi c cc yu t khc vi gi lm thay i
tng cu hoc tng cung.
2. Ni hm ca th
2.1. ng tng cu AD
ng tng cu c th dch chuyn qua phi v qua tri ty tng trng hp
tc ng ca cc yu t ngoi gi.
2.2. ng tng cung trong ngn hn
- Ban u tng i thoi: c ngha l gi tng chm, thm ch khng tng,
cung vn tng ha vn.
- Khi cung thc t t mc ha vn, ng tng cung bt u dc ngc, c
ngha l gi tng nhiu m cung ch tng cht t.
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iu ny ni ln rng, khi cung thc t cha t ti mc ha vn, nh sn
xut cha dm tng gi ngi tiu dng c th chp nhn c nh m thu
hi vn. Nhng khi thu hi vn ri, doanh nghip c th thu li nhun bng
tng gi bn m khng cn tng sn lng.(Nhng ch xt trong ngn hn khi gi
u vo cha kp thay i, cng sut cha s dng ht,).
- Khi cung tng n mc tim nng m tng cu vn tng th ch lm tng
mc gi ch khng lm tng sn lng, l cung trong ngn hn.
V vy, ng tng cung ngn hn thc t l 1 on thng c dc dng,
ct ng biu din sn lng tim nng ti im tng ng vi mc gi ca thi
k.
- Nu cc yu t khc lm tng kh nng cung ng th ng AS dch
chuyn sang phi, lm tng chi ph sn xut th ng AS dch chuyn ln trn.
Cn nu lm gim th dch chuyn ngc li.
2.3. S cn bng AD - AS trong ngn hn
P
Eo
AS
Po
AD
Yo
V tr Eo ph thuc vo 2 yu t:
- V tr ca cc ng tng cung (AS) v tng cu (AD). Khi 1 trong 2
ng ny, hoc c hai ng cng thay i v tr, th im Eo s dch chuyn.
- dc hai ng AS v AD.
th minh ha dc AS v AD:
P
AS
AS
P
AD2
AD1
Y1
Y
Y2
Gio trnh
Kinh
t V M
Hnh a
AD
P1
AD
Y*p
Hnh b
Y
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Trng hp (a): ng AS nm ngang, s dch chuyn v tr ca ng

tng cung ch dn n s thay i sn lng.
Trng hp (b): ng AS thng ng, s thay i ca tng cu ch dn
n s thay i gi.
Cn phn bit gia cn bng v cn i:
- Cn bng trong kinh t hc thng l cn bng th trng
- Cn i l s hp l ca c cu.
3. S iu chnh ngn hn, trung hn v di hn
3.1. iu chnh ngn hn (hnh a)
Gi s nn kinh t ang t trng thi cn bng ton dng Eo. Gi nh AD
tng, AD dch chuyn sang phi v ln trn. Cu tng lm cho cc hng s tng
thm sn lng mt cch tng ng, cho n khi t c mc sn lng E'.
Trng thi cn bng ngn hn c thit lp. Ti E', c sn lng v gi c u
tng. Gi c v sn lng tng ln n mc no ph thuc vo dc ng AS.
3.2. iu chnh trung hn (hnh b)
trng thi cn bng ngn hn E, cu v lao ng trn th trng lao ng
tng ln. Do tin cng cha th iu chnh trong ngn hn do b rng buc bi cc
hp ng lao ng di hn, qa trnh ny s c thc hin trung hn. Do vy,
trung hn, W tng ln CPSX tng DN buc phi thu hp sn xut mi mc
gi cho trc AS dch n AS. Trng thi cn bng c thit lp im E.
3.3. iu chnh di hn (hnh b)
Trong chng mc m sn lng cn vt qu sn lng tim nng, th
ng tng cung tip tc gim v gim n mc sn lng ton dng nhn cng.
Nn kinh t t mc cn bng di hn E".
AS '
P
P'
Po
AS
Eo
E
'
AD '
E "'
Eo
AD
Hnh a
Yo
Y'
AS
E"
E
'
AD '
AD
Gio trnh Kinh t V M
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Tm li:
(1) Qu trnh t iu chnh ca nn kinh t trc nhng s m rng ca tng
cu v thay i tng cung (thng qua tin lng v gi c) din ra theo trnh t m
rng n thu hp sn lng. V s o ngc li nu c tc ng thu hp tng cu.
(2) V qu trnh t iu chnh din ra chm chp v c th ko di, nn m
ra 1 khng gian nht nh NN can thip vo TT thng qua chnh sch ti kho
v tin t, nhm gi cho nn KT lun mc SLTN.
CHNG 4
TNG TRNG KINH T V CHU K KINH T
I. CHU K KINH T
1. S nhn Keynes (s nhn tng cu) v nguyn l gia tc
1.1. Nguyn l gia tc
Khi nn kinh t ang trong thi k m mang th s u t tng rt nhanh.
Ngc li, khi kinh t ri vo suy thoi th s u t cng gim rt nhanh. Mc
cu v u t chu tc ng ca vic tng khi lng hng ha bn ra. Hin tng
ny gi l nguyn l gia tc.
Nguyn l ny ni ln rng s vn m x hi cn n, d l hng ha hay
trang thit b, ph thuc trc tin vo mc sn xut. Vic tng vn, tng u t
ch xy ra khi sn lng tng. Kt qu l mt thi k phn thnh c th chm dt,
khng n gin ch do hng ha bn ra b gim st m ch v hng ha bn ra b
chng li mc cao.
V du:
G/s c 1 DN m doanh s hng ha bn ra hng nm bng gi tr thit
b c bn. Khi s hng ha hng nm bn ra 30 tr.USD, th s vn l 60
tr.USD. S my mc (TLSX) m DN c l 20 ci cc la tui khc nhau v
c mi nm s c mt ci b thay th.
Nh vy, v thay th bng mc tiu hao nn khng c u t rng, hoc tit
kim. u t din ra mc 3 tr.USD/nm, tc l 1 nm thay 1 my. S 27 tr.USD
cn li v tin bn hng c th gi nh l bin vo tin lng v li c phn.
Gio trnh Kinh t V M
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Gi nh nm th t s hng bn ra tng 50% t 30 tr USD ln 45 tr USD.
gi cho t l t bn v sn lng vn l 2:1, s my mc cng phi tng 50%
tc t 20 my ln 30 my.
Trong nm th t , ng l mua thm 1 my ngi ta phi mua 11 my
(10 my mi v 1 my thay th my hao mn). Nh th, s hng bn ra tng
50%. u t vo my mc tng t 1 ln 11, tc l 1000%. S p ng tng
nhanh tc u t i vi bin ng tng ca sn lng c gi l nguyn l
gia tc.
Thi gian
Giai on I
- Nm u
- Nm th 2
- Nm th 3
Giai on II
- Nm th 4
- Nm th 5
- Nm th 6
Giai on III
- Nm th 7
Giai on IV
- Nm th 8
Nguyn l gia tc (tr. USD)

S bn ra Vn u t
hng nm
rng
(NI)
u t
(NI + thay th)
30
30
30
60
60
60
0
0
0
1 my gi 3 tr.USD = 3 tr
45
60
75
90
120
150
30
30
30
(10 +1) my gi 3 tr.USD = 33 tr

(10 +1) my gi 3 tr.USD = 33 tr
(10+1) my gi 3 tr.USD = 33 tr
75
150
1 my gi 3 tr.USD gi 3 tr.USD
= 3 tr
73,8
147
-3
1 my gi 3 tr. USD gi 3 tr.USD

= 3 tr
Nh vy, nguyn l gia tc cho thy ch cn khng tng mnh s hng ha

bn ra nhiu lm m vn c th tng mnh chi tiu v u t. Nu nh s hng bn
ra ngng tng tc nhanh nh bng trn m chng li (nm th 7) thm ch
mc cao 75 tr.USD/nm th u t rng s gim xung 0 v u t trong nhiu
nm s tt xung ch cn 1 my/nm.
Ni cch khc, nu s hng bn ra khng tng na th kt qu u t gim
90% v u t rng gim 1000% (giai on 3).
Gio trnh Kinh t V M
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T cc phn tch trn, c th rt ra: Nguyn l gia tc l mt nhn t
mnh m dn n s khng n nh v kinh t; nhng thay i v sn lng c th
bin thnh nhng thay i ln hn v u t.
1.2. M hnh s nhn Keynes v vn sn lng
Quan h cung - cu l nhn t chi phi vic quyt nh u t m rng sn
xut, b t trong h chi phi bi cc nhn t sau:
- Khi thu nhp tng C ADY.
- Y th phi m rng sn xut I
- I phi tng S CAD.
1
M hnh s nhn Keynes: Yo = 1 MPC (C I ) s ch cho thy tiu dng v

u t tc ng qua li ln nhau nh th no.
T trn thy Yo ph thuc I v C.
1
Y= 1 MPC I
2. Chu k kinh t (chu k kinh doanh)
2.1. nh ngha
Chu k kinh t l nhng chui trng thi pht trin ca nn kinh t, c c
cu v di thi gian din bin ging nhau, lp i, lp li mt cch lin tc.
(Hay Chu k kinh doanh l hin tng SLTT dao ng ln xung theo
thi gian, xoay quanh SLTN).
nh
(peak)
GNP, biu th cho xu
hng tng trng di hn
Chu k
kinh
doanh
D
Yp
A
B
y(trough)
Yt
t (thi
gian)
Thu hp
SX
Gio trnh Kinh t V M
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2.2. Bin thi ca chu k kinh t

Chu k kinh t thng c cc giai on sau y:
- y: l trng thi thp nht ca nn kinh t, l im thp nht ca GNP.
- Bnh trng: l thi k tng trng v pht trin, gia y v nh.
- nh: L trng thi cao nht ca nn kinh t, l im cao nht m GNP t
c sau giai on tng trng pht trin.
- Suy thoi, khng hong. l giai on gia nh v y mi. y l
trng thi cui cng ca chu k trc, cng l trng thi u ca chu k sau.
2.3. c trng
c trng ni bt ca n th hin giai on suy thoi, c cc du hiu sau:
- Hng tn kho tng nhanh v c thanh ton trong giai on u ca suy
thoi bng cch bn chy.
- u t gim mnh.
- Vn KD b thiu trm trng.
- Mc cu v lao ng gim mnh.
- Gi c cc mt hng nhy cm thng gim, nh th trng chng khon.
- Li sut gim mnh.
2.4. Nhng nhn t tc ng vo chu k kinh te
Bn trn c nh ngha chu k kinh t l do hin tng SLTT dao
ng ln xung theo thi gian, xoay quanh SLTN, tuy nhin nguyn nhn gy
ra chu k kinh t rt phc tp, l gii iu ny c cc trng phi sau:
- Trng phi hng ngoi: trng phi ny tm nguyn nhn bn ngoi h
thng kinh t l do chin tranh, cc cuc cch mng, s thay i trong th ch
chnh tr, t l tng dn s,
- Trng phi hng ni (cc yu t bn trong h thng kinh t): coi nguyn
nhn ca s pht trin kinh t theo chu k nm trong bn thn h thng kinh t,
nh c cu, c ch kinh t,
- Trng phi ton din: ch trng coi trng c 2 yu t bn trong v bn
ngoi, yu t bn trong ng vai tr ni lc, yu t bn ngoi ng vai tr mi
trng.
2.5. C ch pht sinh chu k kinh t
a. Chu k kinh t xut hin do s thay i tng cung hay tng cu?
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Do nn kinh t th trng c nhc im l to ra cc chu k kinh doanh,
sn lng Quc gia c khuynh hng dao ng ln xung xoay quanh sn lng
tim nng. Mt trong nhng mc tiu ca kinh t v m l tm ra nguyn nhn v
bin php khc phc s dao ng . Trc nhng nm 30, cc nh kinh t khng
nhn thc c rng chnh s dao ng ca tng cu to nn s dao ng ca
sn lng thc t. Nh kinh t hc ngi Anh, John Maynard Keynes cung cp
cho chng ta 1 m hnh gip nhn thc ra c iu ny. Mc d c nhiu thc
thc, ci bin i vi c s l thuyt m Keynes a ra vo nm 1936, nhng
nhng tng c bn trong m hnh Keynes vn l nn tng trong h thng l
thuyt ca nhng ngi k tc ng nhng ngi theo trng phi Keynes hin
i. Cch tip cn ny c nh gi cao, bi l n t ra gn gi vi thc t bin
i ca i sng kinh t hng ngy v c vn dng nhiu nc.
Nhng s liu thng k minh ho cho nh lut OKUN cng h tr cho quan
im ny.
Mi quan h gia t l tng trng thc t v t l tht nghip c
lng ho di tn gi nh lut OKUN.
nh lut Okun cho bit mc thay i ca t l tht nghip thc t khi c
s thay i trong tng quan gia sn lng thc t v sn lng tim nng (Qp).
tng c bn ca nh lut ny l: Sn lng thc t cng thp hn Qp th
tht nghip tng ln cng nhiu.
Nh vy: Sn lng thc t t mc thp tng ln vi tc nhanh hn
tc tng ca Qp th tht nghip s gim bt.
T tng ny, c hai cch t vn :
- Cch th nht: Khi sn lng thc t thp hn Qp l bao nhiu % th tht
nghip s tng thm 1%.
- Cch th hai: Khi tc tng ca sn lng thc t cao hn tc
tng ca sn lng tim nng bao nhiu % th tht nghip s gim bt 1%.
nh lut Okun:
Cch th nht: Theo P.A.Samuelson v W.D. Nordhaus: "Khi Q thp hn
Qp 2% th tht nghip s tng thm 1% so vi tht nghip t nhin".
T suy ra: Nu sn lng thc t (Qtt) < Sn lng tim nng (Qp) mt
lng X(%) th tht nghip s tng thm mt lng:
X
U =
2
M X c xc nh bi:
Qp - Qt
X=
Gio trnh Kinh t V M
Qp
x10
0
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Nn:
Qp - Qt
x50
U =
Qp
U l t l tht nghip tng ln thm do sn lng thp hn mc

tim nng.
Do ti mc sn lng tim nng c tht nghip bng vi tht nghip t
nhin. Cho nn, t l tht nghip thc t (Ut) phi bng tht nghip t nhin (Un)
cng vi U.
Tc l:
Qp - Qt
Ut =
Un
+
x50
Qp
b. Chu k kinh t trong m hnh Keynes

Cn phn bit quan im c in v quan im ca Keynes v vn xc
nh sn lng trn 2 quan im:
-Theo quan im c in: gi c v tin lng hon ton linh hot nn
ng tng cung thng ng. Do , vi quan im ny khng c tht nghip
khng t nguyn, chnh sch kinh t v m khng th tc ng n sn lng.
- Theo Keynes, gi c v tin cng khng linh hot trong 1 khong thi
gian nht nh. V th ng AS nm ngang. Trong trng hp ny bt c s
thay i no ca tng cu u c phn nh vo s thay i sn lng thc
t hn l gi c.
Theo ng, i vi nn kinh t c tht nghip cao v dai dng, CP c th
c chnh sch kinh t v m nhm kch cu u t v cu tiu dng ci thin
tnh hnh.
AD2
AD
E0
AD
AD1
E1
Y
Yp v nhn t gia tc
c. Tc ng qua li gia s nhnYKeynes
1
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Thuyt m hnh s nhn - gia tc (Multiplier-Accelerator model Theory)
xut cch gii thch chu k da vo mt c sc bn ngoi, c lan truyn bi s
nhn cng vi nhn gia tc, to nn s dao ng ln xung ca SL(Samuelson).
Chng ta bit, s nhn Keynes l h s phn nh lng thay i ca SL khi
tng cu thay i 1 n v. Mt trong cc yu t nng ng lm thay i tng cu
l u t ca t nhn (I). Theo Samuelson, s thay i trong u t va l nguyn
nhn va l kt qu ca chu k kinh doanh. L nguyn nhn bi v vic gia tng
hay gim bt u t s dn n s gia tng hay st gim ca sn lng. Tc ng
ny c th hin bng m hnh s nhn Y = m.AD. L kt qu v trong cc
chu k KD, SL lin tc tng ln v gim xung. Khi SL thay i u t cng thay
i theo. Tc ng ca SL lm thay i u t c gi l nhn t gia tc.
Samuelson cho rng s tng tc gia s nhn v gia tc to ra chu k kinh doanh.
T thuyt , ngoi nhng nhn t tc ng n u t nu trong chng
3, vic tng vn, tng u t cn xy ra khi sn lng tng. Hn na, sn lng
phi lin tc tng cng nhp mi m bo cho vn u t khng i. Kt qu l,
khi sn lng ngng tng, th u t rng ( u t tng thm vn t bn) gim n
0 v tng u t ch bng u t duy tr nng lc sn xut hin c.
Ngc li, khi sn lng gim, u t s gim xung di 0 trong thi gian
di.
C ch phi hp nhn t gia tc v m hnh s nhn c th m t
nh sau (c ch hnh thnh chu k kinh doanh):
u t tng sn lng tng (theo m hnh s nhn) u t tng( theo
s nhn gia tc) sn lng tng,.. t nh chu ky.
Tip n:
Sn lng ngng tng u t gim (theo nhn t gia tc) sn lng
gim (theo m hnh s nhn) u t gim ( theo nhn t gia tc) sn lng
gim,... chm y chu ky. Tip n, u t tng ln v chu k li bt u t u.
2.6. Tc ng ca Chnh ph vo chu k kinh t
Tc ng vo chu k kinh t thc cht l loi b suy thoi. Vic ngn
chn suy thoi ch c th do Chnh ph thc hin. Chnh ph cn:
- Hiu v nm c chu k ca nhng lc tc ng bn trong v bn ngoi,
t CP tm cch khai thc nn kinh t sao cho hot ng mc SL tim nng
trong thi gian di.
- Theo di v d bo cc din bin kinh t c gii php phng nga.
Bi l n gin, nu nh cc nh kinh doanh c d bo rng sp ti nn
kinh t s i xung, th h s thc c rng cn phi gim bt hng tn kho.
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Tng t nh vy, nu cc nh hoch nh chnh sch kinh t thy trc sp
c mt thi k phn thnh v kinh t, h c th c nhng bin php tin t hoc
thu khoa hn ch chi tiu.
- S dng cc cng c qun l v m ca CP nh chnh sch ti chnh, tin
t, gi c iu tit cc bin ng.
- Ap dng chnh sch kch cu u t, kch cu tiu dng ng b v ph
hp vi mt bng kinh t to ra s tng trng n nh v bn vng.
- Ci cch cc c cu kinh t chng li khng hong.
III. TNG TRNG KINH T
1. nh ngha
L s gia tng lc lng kinh t ca nm ny so vi nm trc hoc nm
c chn lm xut pht im ca chu k nghin cu.
Hoc: L s tng theo quy m sn lng hay thu nhp bnh qun u
ngi ca mt nn kinh t trong mt thi k nht nh (thng l 1 nm). l
kt qu c to ra bi tt c cc hot ng sn xut v dch v trong nn kinh
t.
Tc tng hng nm phn nh % thay i ca sn lng nm sau so vi
nm trc.
Ch tiu nm (t) - ch tiu nm
(t-1)
x100
Vt =
Chca
tiu
(t-1)
Vt l tc tng
mt nm
ch tiu
no nm t
Ch tiu nm t v nm (t 1) c th l GNP hoc GDP.
2. Nhng nhn t nh hng n mc tng trng KTQD
2.1. T l tch ly v tiu dng
- Khi tng tch ly, gim tiu dng s hn ch tng trng.
- Nu tng tiu dng s tng sn xut.
C: YD = C + S
C
C= C + MPC.Y
S= -C + MPS.Y
C
45
-CKinh t V M
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2.2. Tch ly, u t v dnh

dnh ch n gin l khng tiu dng ht thu nhp, mun dnh li mt
phn phng ri ro hoc cha bit dng s tin vo vic g do bo ha v
nhu cu tiu dng.
Tch ly l s dnh c mc ch u t, ch c hi, ch sc s u t.
S2cho
(Quc
u t l bin tch ly
c s vt cht k thut
s tng trng
S= thnh
-C + MPS.Y
S
dn)
I,
kinh t.i
E
S
C
Y
-C
i1
i2
Y*
I (i)
S tc ng ca tit kim v u t n thu nhp v tng trng kinh t. Ti im

E mc tit kim mong mun bng mc u t mong mun.
3. Cc dng tng trng kinh t
3.1. Tng trng kiu bong bng x phng
l s tng trng nhanh v km bn vng.
c im:
- C kht vng tng trng nhanh, dn n u t t, u t khng nhng
bng vn vay di hn m cn bng vn vay ngn v trung hn. iu d dn n
khng hong ti chnh, v kt cc l s suy thoi kinh t.
- Vay n nc ngoi ln nhng s dng vn km hiu qu.(in hnh l
Achentina)
-Ch tp trung u t mt s ngnh, nn khi nhng ngnh ny tht bi trong
cnh tranh quc t, nn kinh t t nc s sp nhanh chng.
3.2. Tng trng kinh t nng
l s tng trng kinh t cao nhng phi tr gi qu ln v nhiu mt,
nh v mi trng, dn s, c s h tng, ng thi l s pht trin phin
din v kinh t, khng xut pht t tim nng ca t nc.
3.3. Tng trng cn i
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l s tng trng kinh t trong khi gi nguyn c cu s dng thu nhp
quc dn.
Tng trng cn i khc vi tng trng u n. Tng trng u n ni
n vic tng trng u n vi nhp khng i, lin tc trong nhiu nm ca
GNP, v GDP.
3.4. Tng trng ti u
Tng trng ti u l v tr nn kinh t nm trn ng cong sn lng tim
nng. Ti mc tht nghip bng vi tht nghip t nhin.
4. Cc biu hin in hnh v kinh t trong s tng trng
4.1. Gi c tng do lm pht tng
P tng do mt s nguyn nhn sau:
- Do m rng SXKD nhu cu v TLSX P
- Do gi c hng ha u vo tng nn gi thnh, gi c u ra phi tng.
- Do s k vng v li nhun ca cc nh u t tng IAD.
- Xut khu tng AD
Tm li, AD dn n P.
4.2. u t tng
IAD.
4.3. Li sut ngn hng tng (i)
I MD i .
4.4. S chu chuyn ca vn tng
4.5. Nhng bin ng bt thng v mc chi tiu, tch ly v u t
Khi nn kinh t tng trng cao v lin tc trong nhiu nm s to nn tm
l lc quan, t dn n C>S, u t t,
CHNG V
THT NGHIP V LM PHT
I. THT NGHIP
1. Tc hi ca tht nghip
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Th nht, i vi c nhn v gia nh ngi b tht nghip: i sng ca h
s ti t hn do mt ngun thu nhp, k nng chuyn mn b si mn, mt nim tin
trong cuc sng, nguy c bnh tt tng ln, hnh phc gia nh b e do, con ci
chu nhiu thit thi.
Th hai, i vi x hi: Phi chi ph cho i qun tht nghip (nht l cc
nc c ch tr cp tht nghip); phi chi nhiu tin hn cho bnh tt; phi
ng u vi cc t nn x hi nh trm cp, ru ch, do ngi tht nghip
gy ra; phi chi nhiu tin hn cho vic x l ti phm.
Th ba, i vi hiu qu nn kinh t: TN cao lm cho nn kinh t h/ khng
c hiu qu.
2. Mt s khi nim c s
- Nhng ngi trong tui lao ng l nhng ngi tui c ngha v
v quyn li lao ng theo quy nh ghi trong hin php.
- Lc lng lao ng l s ngi trong tui lao ng ang c vic hoc
cha c vic lm nhng ang tm kim vic lm.
VN, nhng ngi ang lm vic c th nm trong tui lao ng hoc
ngoi tui L. S ngi ngoi tui L c vic lm c tnh vo lc lng lao
ng theo gii hn (>13 v <65). Nh vy lc lng lao ng gm 2 thnh phn:
+ Nhng ngi trong tui lao ng ang lm vic hay ang tht nghip.
+ Nhng ngi ngoi tui lao ng nhng nm trong khong 13 -16 tui
ang c vic lm.
- S ngi tht nghip gm nhng ngi trong tui lao ng, c kh
nng lao ng, ang tm vic nhng cha c vic lm.
Theo nh ngha trn, nhng ngi ngoi tui L, cho d ang tm vic v
khng c vic lm th cng khng c xem l TN. Hoc 1 ngi trong tui L, c
kh nng L, nhng khng h c hnh ng tm vic th cng khng phi l ngi
TN. Nhng thnh phn nu trn c xp ngoi lc lng L.
- Ngi c vic lm l nhng ngi ang lm cho cc cc c s sn xut
kinh doanh, vn ho, x hi,...
- Ngoi nhng ngi c vic v tht nghip, nhng ngi cn li trong
tui lao ng c coi l nhng ngi khng nm trong lc lng lao ng, bao
gm ngi i hc, ni tr gia nh,... v mt b phn khng mun tm vic lm v
cc l do khc nhau.
3. Du hiu tht nghip
- Trong tui lao ng.
- C kh nng, c nhu cu, c ngha v lao ng.
- ang khng tm c vic lm, c vic lm nhng khng n nh.
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Lc lng lao ng
Trong tui
lao ng
Dn s
C vic
Tht nghip
Ngoi lc lng lao ng

("m au, ni tr, khng
mun tm vic)
Ngoi tui
lao ng
S miu t ni dung cc khi nim
4. Cc ch tiu th hin tnh trng tht nghip
4.1. S ngi tht nghip
c tnh theo 2 cch:
- Thng k theo cc du hiu tht nghip, nu trn.
- Tnh t lc lng lao ng x hi v ngi c vic lm.
S ngi tht nghip = Tng lc lng lao ng x hi s ngi trong danh sch
lao ng ca cc n v lao ng
4.2. T l tht nghip

o lng mc tht nghip trong nn kinh t chng ta s dng ch tiu
t l tht nghip:
S ngi tht
x10
nghip
T l tht nghip(%)
0
=
Lc lng lao
4.3. Thi gian tht nghip
ng
Thi gian tht nghip bao gi cng c hiu l thi gian trung bnh, c
tnh theo phng php bnh qun gia quyn.
4.4.Tn s tht nghip
L s ln trung bnh 1 ngi lao ng b TN trong 1 thi k nht nh (v d:
1 nm b tht nghip 3 ln).
Tn s tht nghip ph thuc vo:
+ S thay i nhu cu L ca cc DN.
+ S gia tng t l tham gia vo lc lng L.
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Trong ngn hn, khi tng cu khng i nhng c s bin ng v c cu
ca n v khi c t l tng dn s cao th tn s TN b y ln nhanh. Tn s TN
ln, c ngha l thng xuyn c s TN nhiu, t l TN s cao.
H thp t l tng dn s v n nh KT l hng i quan trng gi cho tn
s TN mc thp.
5. Phn loi tht nghip v cc loi tht nghip
5.1. Phn theo c tnh ca ngi tht nghip
Phn theo cc tiu ch sau y:
- Tiu ch tui tc.
- Tiu ch gii tnh.
- Tiu ch ngnh ngh.
- Tiu ch lnh th.
- Tiu ch dn tc.
5.2. Phn loi theo l do tht nghip
- B vic
- Mt vic
- Cha c vic
- Ngoi l
5.3. Phn loi theo tnh cht ca tht nghip
a. Tht nghip tm thi (Tht nghip c hc - Frictional Unemployment)
cn gi l tht nghip c xt, tht nghip bt ng, tht nghip dai dng, tht
nghip tm thi, tht nghip chuyn i).
Loi ny ch yu bao gm nhng ngi ang i tm vic, xut thn t thnh
phn b vic c tm vic mi, hoc t thnh phn mi gia nhp hay ti nhp lc
lng L. Ngoi ra, ngi ta cn tnh c nhng ngi tht nghip thi vu v
nhng ngi TN do tn tt 1 phn (nhng vn c kh nng lao ng v ang tm
vic lm).
b. Tht nghip c cu ( StructuralUnemplyment - cn gi l tht nghip bt
tng xng) Xy ra khi c s mt cn i v mt c cu gia cung v cu v L.
S mt cn i ny c th xy ra do 2 nguyn nhn:
+ Thiu k nng: c th do s thay i c cu ngnh hoc do cng vic yu
cu trnh cao hn i vi ngi lao ng.
+ Khc bit v a im c tru: Yu t chnh l do s pht trin khng ng
u gia cc vng, vng ny pht trin nhanh, ang cn nhiu L, trong khi vng
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khc pht trin chm, ang tha L. Tuy nhin, ngi L khng d dng di
chuyn t ni ny n ni khc c c vic lm.
c. Tht nghip chu k ( CyclicalUnemployment - cn gi l tht nghip do
thiu cu, tht nghip theo thuyt Keynes) L loi tht nghip c to ra bi tnh
trng suy thoi nn KT, sn lng tt xung thp hn SLTN.
Do tng cu v hng ho v dch v st gim, buc cc DN phi SX t hn,
thm ch c khi phi ng ca. V vy, DN s phi sa thi cng nhn, to nn TN
hng lot. c im c bn phn bit TN chu k vi cc loi TN khc l mc
TN gn nh khp mi ni.
d. Tht nghip do c ch qun l lao ng tin lng (Cn gi l tht
nghip ch vic)
Do s khng linh hot ca tin lng ch yu do vic quy nh mc lng ti
thiu ca ngi lao ng.
W
LS
Tin
Tin
lng cn
lng cn
bng
bng
LD
L*
Lao ng (L)
e. tht nghip t nguyn v tht nghip khng t nguyn.
Ph thuc vo mi quan h cung - cu lao ng.
Tht nghip t nguyn ch nhng ngi "t nguyn" khng mun lm vic,
do vic lm v mc lng tng ng cha ho hp vi mong mun ca mnh. T
gi thit ny, c th xy dng c hai ng cung: mt ng cung ch ra quy m
ca lc lng lao ng x hi tng ng vi cc mc lng ca th trng lao
ng; mt ng cung ch ra b phn lao ng chp nhn vic lm vi mc lng
tng ng ca th trng lao ng. Khong cch gia hai ng cung biu th con
s tht nghip t nguyn (hnh 7.2).
ng LD l ng cu lao ng, do nhu cu lao ng ca cc doanh
nghip quyt nh. ng LS l ng cung lc lng lao ng x hi. ng LS'
l ng cung b phn lao ng sn sng chp nhn vic lm tng ng vi cc
mc lng ca th trng lao ng, GF l con s tht nghip t nguyn. Tht
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nghip t nguyn bao gm s ngi tht nghip tm thi v s ngi tht nghip
c cu, v l nhng ngi cha sn sng lm vic vi mc lng tng ng,
cn ang tm kim nhng c hi tt hn.
Mc
lng
LS '
LS
F
W1
W*
G
E
LD
LD '
Lng
lao
ng
Nu x/h c ch quy nh mc lng ti thiu, g/s w 1 cao hn mc

lng c bn ca T/T lao ng (W*).
mc lng W1, cung lao ng sn sng chp nhn vic lm (LS) s ln
hn cu L. S chnh lch ny c biu hin bng on AB. chnh l s
ngi TN theo l thuyt c in th l b phn tht nghip TN, bi TN t
nhin bi xh ch chp nhn lm vic ti mc lng cao hn (W1).
TN khng t nguyn l TN do thiu cu xy ra khi tng cu st gim, SX b
nh tr, mt vic, trn hnh trn hnh v l on GE.
6. Cc nhn t nh hng n tht nghip v phng hng c bn nhm hn
ch tht nghip v tc hi ca tht nghip
6.1. S i mi v nng cao nhanh chng tin b khoa hc v cng ngh trong
ton b nn kinh t quc dn
- Cng ngh hin i khi c a vo sn xut s thay th nhiu lao ng
th cng vo to ra tht nghip t b phn ny.
- CN hin i khi c a vo SX s lm cho b phn L c tr nn lc
hu, khng p ng c yu cu mi.
- CM KHCN cng vi hi nhp kinh t quc t thay i c cu x hi
theo hng chuyn mn ha xut hin nhu cu v lc lng lao ng mi m
lao ng hin c khng ph hp.
6.2. S bt ng gia tc tng dn s v tc tng trng kinh t
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gi cn bng v vic lm trong iu kin khng i v cng ngh SX, tc
tng trng kinh t phi cao hn tc tng trng dn s nhiu ln.
Tuy nhin cc nc ang pht trin hin nay cha th thc hin c iu
ny bi v tuy tc tng trng kinh t tuy c nhanh nhng tc tng dn s
tng cng khng km.
6.3. phng hng c bn nhm lm gim t l tht nghip
i vi tht nghip chu k: dng chnh sch ti kha v tin t m rng
kch thch s gia tng ca tng cu, ko sn lng ln mc sn lng tim nng.
i vi tht nghip t nhin:
Trong vi thp nin gn y, t l TNTN c khuynh hng tng ln mt s
nc. C 3 l do: Mt l, s thay i c cu dn s theo hng tng t trng thnh
phn tht nghip cao. Hai la, s thay i c cu KT lm tng thnh phn tht
nghip c cu do thiu k nng. Ba l, ch tr cp TN mt s nc lm cho
ngi L khng tch cc tm vic hoc khng chp nhn cng vic c mc lng
thp. Vy phi chng vic gim t l TN TN c v nh hoang tng? Thc t
khng phi nh vy, cc bin php tch cc lun c tc dng tt, nu nh khng
lm gim th cng s hn ch c mc gia tng trong t l TNTN.
C th khc phc bng cch tng cng o to, m rng h thng thng tin
v vic lm, to iu kin thun li trong vic di chuyn ni c tr,...
II. LM PHT
1. Khi nim
Lm pht l tnh trng mc gi chung tng ln(trong mt thi gian nht
nh).
Hay l tnh trng pht hnh tin qu mc.
Gim pht l tnh trng mc gi chung gim xung (S pht hnh tin t
khng mc cn cho lu thng hng ha.
Gim lm pht l s st gim ca t l lm pht.
T l lm pht phn nh tc tng gi thi im ny so vi thi im
trc (c th tnh theo nm, qu,).
Mc gi chung (General Price) l mc gi trung bnh ca nhiu loi hng
ha v dch v. Mc gi c o bng ch s gi.
Ch s gi tiu dng (CPI - Consumer Price Index) phn nh s bin ng
gi c ca mt gi hng ho v dch v tiu biu cho c cu tiu dng ca x hi.
Cng thc tnh c th vit nh sau:
G = Gi.fi
Trong : G - ch s gi chung (c th vit l CPI)
Gi - ch s gi c tng loi hng.
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fi - t trng mc tiu dng ca tng loi, nhm hng trong gi
(vi fi = 1 ). N phn nh c cu tiu dng ca x hi.
2. Tiu ch o lng tnh trng lm pht
2.1.T l lm pht
T l lm pht l thc o ch yu ca lm pht trong mt thi k. Quy m
v s bin ng ca n phn nh quy m v xu hng lm pht:
T l lm pht c tnh nh sau:
Gi
g = (
p
- 1)x100
Go
gp (nL) - t l lm pht (%)

Gi - ch s gi c ca thi k nghin cu.
Go - ch s gi c thi k trc c chn lm gc so snh.
2.2. Quy m lm pht
Cn c vo mc lm pht c th chia thnh ba loi:
Lm pht va phi ( moderate inflation - mt ch s): t l lm pht di
10% mt nm. Gi tng chm, ng tin tng i n nh.
Lm pht phi m(galloping inflation - ba ch s): t l 10% - 999%. Khi
lm pht phi m mc cao th tin mt gi nhanh, gy tc ng khng tt i vi
sn xut v i sng.
Siu lm pht ( Hyper inflation - trn ba ch s): t 1000% tr ln. Loi ny
gy tc hi nghim trng i vi nn kinh t.
Cn c vo thi gian lm pht:
- Lm pht kinh nin thng ko di trn 3 nm vi t l lm pht n 50%
mt nm.
- Lm pht nghim trng thng ko di trn 3 nm, vi t l lm pht trn
50% mt nm.
- Siu lm pht ko di trn 1 nm vi t l lm pht trn 200%
mt nm.
3. Tc hi ca lm pht
- Phn phi li thu nhp v ca ci mt cch ngu nhin gia cc c nhn,
tp on v cc giai tng trong x hi, c bit i vi ai gi nhiu ti sn di
hnh thc tin mt th h s b thit hi rt ln.
- C nhng bin dng v c cu sn xut v vic lm trong nn kinh t, c
bit khi lm pht tng nhanh cng vi s thay i mnh m ca gi c tng i.
Trong trng hp s c nhng doanh nghip, ngnh ngh c th pht ln, tri
li cng khng t doanh nghip v ngnh ngh i n suy sp, thm ch ph sn.
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4. Cc l thuyt v lm pht
Phn ny cp n mt s l thuyt v quan im nhm l gii nhng
nguyn nhn gy ra v duy tr, thc y lm pht.
4.1. Lm pht cu ko(Demand - pull inflation)
Xy ra khi tng cu tng, ng tng cu theo gi dch chuyn sang bn
phi.
Trong thc t, khi xy ra LP cu ko ngi ta thng nhn thy lng tin
trong lu thng v khi lng tn dng tng ng k v vt qu kh nng c gii
hn ca mc cung hng ho.
ASLR
ASSR
P2
AD2
Lm do cung (lm pht do chi ph y , Cost - Push inflation)

4.2.Lm pht
pht
AD1
Xy ra khiPchi ph sn xutE1tng ( ng ASSR dch chuyn ln trn) hoc

nng lc sn xut gim (ng ASYSR1 dch chuyn
b v c).
Y
Y2 sang tri)(hnh
C th:
Chi ph sx tng, c th do s gia tng tin lng danh ngha, gi nguyn
liu, thu,. Lc cc DN c khuynh hng tng gi bn b p phn tng
ca CPSX. Kt qu l ng AS SR dch chuyn ln trn. Khi cc DN tng gi bn,
AD s gim bt (t E E2). Vy ASSR cng gim theo (t F E2). Kt qu cui
cng l nn KT C/B ti mc mc gi cao hn v SL thp hnAS
(hnh
b).
SR2
ASSR2
ASSR1
th:
P
ASSR1
ASLR
P
AD
AS
1
LR
P2
F
P2
E2
P1
P1
E2
E1
AD
E
1
Y2
Y1
Hnh b: Chi ph sn xut

tng
Gio trnh Kinh t V M
Y2
Y1
Hnh c: Nng lc sn xut

gim
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Nng lc sx gim, c th do gim st ngun nhn lc, ngun vn; do s gia
tng trong t l TNTN; do chin tranh hay thin tai nghim trng. Tc ng ny
lm AS dch sang tri cng vi mc gim ca SL tim nng (Y1 Y2).
Kh nng cung ng gim trong khi mc cu vn cn cao, hng ho tr nn
khan him (thiu 1 lng hng E1F trn hnh 7.3c), P bt u . P lm cho cu
v cung tng(di chuyn trn ng cu v ng cung). Cui cng, AD v AS cn
bng ti mc gi cao hn.
Tm li, c 2 trng hp LP do dch chuyn ng cung ln trn hoc sang
tri, mc d c ch tc ng hi khc nhau, nhng kt qu cui cng ging nhau:
nn kinh t va b LP, va b st gim SL. Tnh trng ny thng c gi l LP
nh n. Mc LP v nh n sx nhiu hay t ph thuc vo dc ng AD.
Nu AD cng dc ng th t l LP cng cao, cng nm ngang th s nh n SX
cng trm trng.
4.3.Lm pht d kin (expected inflation)
L t l LP hin ti m mi ngi d kin rng n s tip tc xy ra trong
tng lai.
Gi c trong trng hp ny tng u vi mt t l tng i n nh. T l
lm pht ny c gi l t l lm pht , v mi ngi c th d tnh trc
mc ca n nn c gi l lm pht d kin.
Hnh 7.4 cho thy LP d kin xy ra ntn. l ng AD v ng AS dch
chuyn ln trn cng 1 tc . V LP c d kin nn chi ph sx (k c tin
lng) v c nhu cu chi tiu cng c iu chnh cho ph hp vi tc LP.
Nh vy, SL vn gi nguyn nhng gi c tng ln theo d kin.
T l lm pht d kin mt khi hnh thnh th tr nn n nh v t duy
tr trong mt thi gian . Ch khi nhng c sc mi trong nn kinh t (c th t
trong nc hoc t nc ngoi) s y lm pht khi trng thi .
P
ASLR
AD3
P3
AD2
ASSR3
E3
ASSR2
ASSR1
AD1
P2
E
4.4.Lm pht v tin t
P15 nghin cu l thuyt s lng
E1
Trong chng
tin t v bit ng thc
(M/P) = LP (i,Y) khi th trng tin t cn bng.
Y thc t (Y) t mc cn
Xt trong di hn li sut thc t (i) v sn lng
bng, ngha l (i) v (Y) l n nh (Y tY*tim nng = Y P), cu tin thc t l
khng i v do vy M/P cng s khng thay i. iu c ngha l nu lng
cung tin danh ngha (M) tng ln th gi c (P) cng tng vi t l tng ng, ni
2
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cch khc t l lm pht s bng t l tng tin. Nh vy, lm pht l mt hin
tng tin t.
iu ny xy ra trong thc t khi nn KT gp phi 1 cn sc (VD: gi du
tng) lm cho lng tin thc t nht thi gim xung. CP cn tng MS n m
bo nhu cu tin thc t. Nhng v SL v vic lm khng i, ch c MS n, gi c v
tin lng danh ngha tng ln.
Khi NS thm ht ln, cc CP c th in thm tin trang tri, lng tin
danh ngha tng ln l 1 nguyn nhn gy ra LP (nh LP cu ko). V mt khi gi
c tng ln th thm ht mi li ny sinh, i hi phi in thm 1 lng tin mi
v LP tip tc tng vt. Kiu LP xoy c ny thng xy ra trong thi k siu LP.
Tuy nhin, cc CP c th ti tr thm ht NS bng cch vay dn qua vic bn tn
phiu. Lng tin danh ngha khng tng thm nn khng c nguy c LP, nhng
nu thm ht ko di, s tin phi tr cho dn (c gc ln li) s ln n mc cn
phi in tin trang tri th kh nng c LP cao l iu chc chn.
4.5.Lm pht v li sut
Li sut thc t thng t thay i v mc m c ngi cho vay v ngi
i vay u c th chp nhn c. Nu khc i s to ra mc d cu hoc d cung
v s y li sut ny v mc n nh. Nhng li sut danh ngha li bin ng
theo lm pht. Khi lm pht thay i th li sut danh ngha s thay i theo,
duy tr li sut mc thc t n nh (V li sut thc t = li sut danh ngha - t
l lm pht). Khi t l lm pht tng ln, li sut danh ngha tng theo, tng chi ph
c hi ca vic gi tin, cng gi tin nhiu cng thit.
III. MI QUAN H GIA LM PHT V THT NGHIP
Khi ni n mqh gia LP v TN, cc nh kinh t thng cp n khi
nim nh i. nh i (trade off) c ngha l c ci ny mt ci kia, chn
ci ny phi b ci kia. A.W. Phillips pht hin ra rng TN th lng c
khuynh hng tng, lng tng s lm tng gi. Nh vy, TN s ko theo tnh
trng LP. Pht hin ny dn n 1 lun im cho rng gia LP v TN c s
nh i vi nhau. Vy th s nh i ny c th hin nh th no? c phi
lun xy ra tnh trng nh i khng?
1. ng Phillips ban u
Da vo kt qu thc nghim nhiu nm v tin lng, gi c, tht nghip
Anh ra i ng Phillips c dng nh hnh b v gi l ng Phillips ban u.
ng ny cho thy mi quan h nghch gia tht nghip v lm pht v n
cng ph hp vi thc t kinh t nhiu nc Ty u thi k nhng nm 50. Tc l
c s nh i gia lm pht tht nghip.
ng Phillips c xy dng hon chnh v c dng nh sau:
gp = - (u - u* )
(*)
Trong : gp - t l lm pht.
u - t l tht nghip thc t.
u*- t l tht nghip t nhin.
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- dc ng Phillips.
ng ny cho thy nhng c im sau y (hnh a):
- Lm pht bng khng khi tht nghip thc t bng t l t nhin.
- Khi tht nghip thc t thp hn tht nghip t nhin th lm pht
xy ra.
- dc cng ln th mt s tng, gim nh ca tht nghip s gy ra s
tng, gim ng k v lm pht. ln ca phn nh s phn ng ca tin
lng. Nu tin lng c phn ng mnh th ln, nu c tnh cao th nh
(ng Phillips s xoay ngang). Nu ng Phillips gn nh nm ngang th lm
pht phn ng rt km vi tht nghip.
th:
T l
lm
pht
gp
P
C
u
B
P
ng
Phillips
chnh sch la chn cc
kinh t
Hnh
a: Mi
quangi
h cho
gianhng
lm ngi lm Hnh
C c/s
b: ng Phillips
ban u
v m, c bit lpht
c/s ti kho v tin t.
T l tht nghip
u*
vG/s
tht
nghip
V d:
nn
kinh t ang ti B trn hnh b (suy thoi tht nghip). CP
c th m rng cung tin nhm h li sut, thc y u t, m rng tng cu s
to ra vic lm, TN gim. im B s di chuyn theo ng Phillips ln trn.
2. ng Phillips m rng
Thc t ngy nay gi c khng h xung theo thi gian do c lm pht d
kin, v th ng Phillips c m rng thm bng vic bao gm c t l lm
pht d kin v c dng nh sau:
gp = gpe - (u-u*)
(**)
gpe l t l lm pht d kin.
ng ny cho thy khi tht nghip thc t bng tht nghip t nhin th
lm pht bng t l d kin. Nu tht nghip thc t cao hn tht nghip t nhin
th t l lm pht thp hn t l d kin. ng ny gi l ng Phillips ngn hn
ng vi thi k m t l lm pht d kin cha thay i. Trong thi k ny nu c
nhng c sc cu, gi s tng cu tng ln nhanh, nn kinh t i dc ng
Phillips ln pha trn, lm pht tng v tht nghip gim.
Nu khng c s tc ng ca cc chnh sch th v gi tng ln th MS r (do
MSr =MSn/P), li sut tng ln v AD dn dn c iu chnh tr li mc ban u
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LP v TN s quay tr v trng thi ban u. Nhng khi LP c d kin, tin
lng v cc chi ph khc cng c iu chnh theo t l LP nn gi c dng li
t l d kin v TN tr li mc t nhin, ng Phillips s dch chuyn t PC 1
PC2. Ti E, gp 0 do gp = gpe.
Ring cc cn st cung (nh tng gi du ln) s y chi ph sn xut v gi
c ln, sn lng v vic lm gim xung. Nh vy, c tht nghip v lm pht
tng ln - khng c s nh i gia tht nghip v lm pht trong ngn hn - l
thi k nh tr, tht nghip.
th:
gp
PC1
u*
u
PC2
Hnh c: ng Phillips m rng
Khi CP tng MS lin tc gi cho AD khng gim v mc tht nghip

khng tng, nn kinh t vn t SL nh c, nhng P tng ln theo t l tng tin.
Nh vy, s iu tit bng c/s tin t v ti kho gi cho nn kinh t n nh sn
lng, khi gp cn st cng phi tr gi bng LP cao hn.
3. ng Phillips di hn (LPC)
Trong ngn hn, t l tht nghip thc t c th khng bng t l tht nghip
d kin, nhng trong di hn chng s bng nhau bi s tc ng ca cc chnh
sch ti kho v tin t. l c s xy dng ng Phillips
di hn:
0 = - (u-u*)
hay: u = u*
Nh vy, t l tht nghip thc t lun bng t l tht nghip t nhin (xt
trong di hn) cho d t l lm pht thay i nh th no. Vy trong di hn lm
pht v tht nghip khng c mi quan h vi nhau.
IV. KHC PHC LM PHT
1. Lnh mnh ha nn ti chnh cng
2. Lnh mnh ha th trng tin t
3. n nh ha nn kinh t quc dn
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Tc ng ln cu:
Ct gim tng cu bng cch thu hp ti kha hoc tin t: ct gim chi tiu
ngn sch, tng thu, gim bt lng cung tin.
C th:
Khi tng cu b ct gim, ng tng cu AD dch chuyn sang tri. C th
xy ra 2 trng hp.
Trng hp 1: Nu trc gi tng ln v ang nm ti im cn bng
mi th s dch chuyn sang tri ca ng AD s lm gim gi, tc b gim pht.
Trong hnh v, sau khi nn kinh t chuyn n im E 2 v dng li , vic
ct gim cu s y nn kinh t tr v E1 hoc E3 hnh v th hai.
P
ASL
ASS
AD2
ASLR
Y2
Y1
AS1
E2
P2
E3
AD
E1
AS2
E1
AD2
AD1
Y2 Y1
Y
Trng hp 2:
Nu trc gi ang trong qu trnh gia tng chuyn sang im CB mi
th s dch chuyn sang tri ca ng AD s lm gim bt p lc LP (hnh di).
Trng hp ny thng xy ra trong thc t nhiu hn. L do l khi LP xut
hin th rt kh dng li. V d: LP do cu chng hn, ng AD dch chuyn sang
phi khng phi 1 ln m nhiu ln. Lc bin php gim AD c t/dng ngn cn
bt khuynh hng gia tng AD trn th trng, tc c t/dng km hm bt t l LP.
Nh trn hnh v, g/s l ra theo th trng th gi tng t P 2P. Nhng nh c/s ct
gim AD, ng tng cu ch dch chuyn t AD 2 sang AD3, P ch tng ln n P3.
P tng c ngha l vn cn LP, nhng t l LP thp hn so vi t P1 ln P2.
AS2
P
P
AS1
AD1
P3
P2
AD3
AD2
E1
Y1
Gio trnh Kinh t V M
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Kt qua: Gi khng tng hoc gim, sn lng c th gim, tht nghip c
th tng.
Tc ng ln cung:
C chnh sch khuyn khch cc doanh ngip gim bt chi ph, tng hiu qu
sn xut. Do vy, ng AS s dch chuyn xung di hoc sang phi.
Kt qu: gi khng tng hoc gim, sn lng c th tng, tht nghip c th
gim.
4. Mt s gii php c tnh cht tnh th
- Vay hng khn cp
- Thc hin chnh sch thu hp tin t, bng cch s dng th trng m.
- Khuyn khch u t cng vi vic vay hng t liu sn xut.
- Ct gim mnh chi tiu NS v kim sot c hiu qu vic tng lng bng
tin.
CHNG 6
KINH T V M CA NN KINH T M
TM TT NI DUNG
I. KHI NIM V NN KINH T M
1. nh ngha
Kinh t m l mt nn kinh t c mi lin h vi nn kinh t ca cc nc
ngoi v cc mt nh trao i hng ha, trao i cc ngun lc kinh t, trao i
dch v a quc gia, trao i v hp tc khoa hc - cng ngh, du lch,... t n
mt quy m, trnh v ngha kinh t x hi nht nh, c gn cht trong mt
th ch, thit ch kinh t ca khu vc hay ton cu.
2. Nhng tnh cht c trng ca nn kinh t m
a. Ch th kinh t
b. C cu kinh t
c. u t
d. Th ch kinh t
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II. L THUYT V THNG MI QUC T
(Nguyn tc li th so snh trong thng mi quc t)
1. Thuyt li th 1 chiu ca phi trng thng
Cc nh kinh t trng thng (TK 16 - 17) cho rng 1 quc gia ch c th
c li t thng mi quc t trn c s quc gia khc b thit. Ni cch khc,
trong TMQT tng li ch ca cc QG khng tng ln m ch c chuyn t QG
ny sang QG khc. QG c li l QG tch lu thm tin bc (qu kim) sau khi
mua bn. iu cng c ngha l li the thuc v nc c XK nhiu hn NK, tc
cn cn thng mi thng d.
T h ch trng khuyn khch XK, hn ch NK, nht l nhp khu cc
loi hng ho xa x v nhng loi hng ho c ch bin hon chnh. Trong XK,
cn nghim cm vic XK vng thoi, bc nn, bi l l tin, m tin l mc ch
hot ng ca TMQT ni ring v ca cc hot ng kinh t ni chung. Mt khc,
c nhiu hng ho XK cn c nhiu lao ng, do , phi khuyn khch tng
dn s. Nh vy, trong quan nim ca phi trng thng, 1 QG giu c khng phi
th hin mc sng cao ca dn chng m l khi lng tin tch lu c. H
nhm ln gia phng tin v mc ch. Hn na, mi QG u theo quan im
trng thng th s khng c TMQT, bi v nu tt c cc nc u ch XK m
khng NK th XK cho ai? R rng l thuyt ny khng ph hp vi thc t.
2. Thuyt li th tuyt i ca Adam Smith
Theo Adam Smith (TK 18), mi QG khi so snh vi QG khc c th c li
th v loi sn phm ny v km li th v loi sn phm khc. Li th c c
l nh chi ph SX thp hn, v c gi l li th tuyt i.
Li th tuyt i (absolute advatage) ca 1 nc th hin ch nc c
kh nng SX 1 loi hng ho vi chi ph sn xut thp hn so vi nc khc.
Trong TMQT, mi QG s bn nhng SP c chi ph SX trong nc thp hn so
vi nc ngoi. Lc c 2 QG u c li v u mua c hng ho r
hn so vi trng hp t SX trong nc. Nh vy, mi QG nn chuyn mn
ho SX, tp trung ngun lc cho nhng SP c kh nng SX tt hn nc khc.
V d: 2 nc A v B SX 2 mt hng ti vi (X) v qun o (Y). Chi ph SX 2
mt hng quy i ra thnh chi ph v lao ng bng di.
Sn phm
X (Ti vi)
Hao ph L
Nc A
6
Gio trnh Kinh t V M
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12
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Y (Qun o)
3
Nc A c li th tuyt i v sn xut c hai mt hng X v Y. Nu so

snh chi ph SX mt hng X th nc A sn xut r hn nc B 2 ln, cn mt hng
B l 4/3 ln.
Nhn vo bng th nu A v B tham gia vo TMQT th nc A s c li th
tuyt i v nc B s b thit.
Tuy nhin, l thuyt ny khng th gii thch c trng hp mt nc
km pht trin, c CPSX cao hn nc khc, vn tch cc tham gia TMQT v
nhng loi hng ho m mnh khng c li th tuyt i. iu b n ny nm trong
ci gi l li th tng i hay li th so snh (Comparative Advantage).
3. Thuyt li th tng i (Comparative Advantage) ca David Ricardo
Mt nc c li th tng i so vi nc khc nu SX hng ho vi gi
r hn khi so snh qua loi hng ho khc.
(Hay: 1 t nc c li th so snh trong vic SX 1 mt hng nc c chi
ph SX tng i (hay chi ph c hi) v mt hng thp hn so vi nc khc).
G/s:
a1: L gi thnh sn xut mt hng X nc 1.
b1 : Gi thnh sn xut mt hng Y nc 1.
a2: Gi thnh sn xut mt hng X nc 2
b2: Gi thnh sn xut mt hng Y nc 2
Vi lng u vo cho trc.
X1, Y1 : l s lng hng ho X v Y c th sn xut nc 1.
X2, Y2 : l s lng hng ho X v Y c th sn xut nc 2.
a1
a2
a1
b1
Phng php 1: So snh b vi b

1
2
Phng php 2: So snh b vi b

2
2
Phng php 3: So snh chi ph c hi ca tng mt hng gia cc nc.
Chi ph c hi sn xut mt hng X l:
Px
Y
Py
X
Nu:
a2
a1
< b
b1
2
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a1 b1
Hoc:
a2 b2
Hoc :
Px
P
y
<
Px
P
y
Th nc 1 c li th tng i trong vic sn xut hng ho X v nc 2 c

li th tng i trong vic sn xut hng ho Y.
Khi c thng mi gia hai nc th gi tng i ca hng ho X tnh theo
hng ho Y s trong khong
Px
P
y
Trong :
Px
P
y
<
Px
P
y
Px
P
y
l gi tng i ca hng ho X ca nc 1
2
l gi tng i ca hng ho Y ca nc 2.
V d: Vi v d trn th:
Khi so snh chi ph tng i hay l chi ph c hi SX 2 mt hng ca 2
nc.
Sn phm
X (Ti vi)
Y(Qun o)
Hao ph L
Nc A
2 (qun o)
(ti vi)
Nc B
3 (qun o)
1/3 (ti vi)
Nc A: sn xut thm 1 ti vi, phi hi sinh hai b qun o. Ngc li,

SX thm 1 b qun o phi hi sinh ti vi.
Nc B: SX thm 1 ti vi, phi hi sinh 3 b qun o. Ngc li, SX
thm 1 b qun o, phi hi sinh 1/3 chic ti vi.
Nh vy, nc A c chi ph c hi SX ti vi thp hn nc B, cn nc B
c chi ph c hi SX qun o thp hn nc A.
Nguyn tc li th so snh ch ra rng, nu TMQT c tin hnh 1 cch t
do th nc A c th chuyn mn ho SX ti vi i ly qun o do nc B SX.
Ngc li, nc B c li th chuyn mn ho SX qun o v i ly ti vi ca nc
A. Sau khi c TMQT, c 2 nc cng c li, TM s lm tng kh nng tiu dng
ca mi nc v tng kh nng SX ca th gii.
4. Gii hn kh nng SX v li ch ca TMQT
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Hnh di ch ra li ch ca chuyn mn ho v TMQT lm tng kh nng
tiu dng nh th no thng qua ng PPF.
X
Nc A
2
0
12 14
16
Nc B
12
Thng mi quc t lm tng kh nng tiu dng ca t nc
th cho thy:
- ng m nt m t ng PPF hay kh nng tiu dng ca t nc.
- ng bn ngoi th hin kh nng tiu dng ca mi nc sau khi c
TMQT, vi gi nh rng c 2 nc u c cng 1 khi lng ngun lc ( nh s
gi lao ng) l nh nhau v bng 36 n v.
- Phn gch cho cho thy kh nng SX hoc tiu dng ca mi nc s tng
ln nh th no khi c chuyn mn ho v TMQT.
Nh vy, TMQT thc y phn cng lao ng v hp tc 2 bn cng c li.
TM t do m ca to iu kin cho mi nc m rng kh nng SX v tiu th sn
phm, nng cao SL v mc sng ton th gii.
Song trong thc t, bo v nn SX ni a ca mi nc, chng li hng
nhp, to thm vic lm cho dn c, CP c th thc hin chnh sch bo h t 2
pha: Ngn chn nhp khu hoc thc y XK. Cng c thc hin l:
- Thu quan: nh thu nng vo hng nhp khu.
- Quota: Kim sot lng hng ho c php nhp khu.
- Tr gi XK: B l cho cng ty XK hoc ngi SX hng xut khu.
- Cc loi ro cn khc: Dng bin php hnh chnh cm nhp khu 1 loi
hng ho, a ra cc tiu chun k thut hay tiu chun v sinh ht sc kht khe
i vi hng nhp khu, t ra nhng th tc hi quan gy kh khn cho nhp
khu.
III. CN CN THANH TON QUC T
Cn cn thanh ton quc t l 1 bn kt ton tng hp ton b cc lung
bun bn hng ho v dch v, cc lung chu chuyn vn v ti sn gia cc
cng dn v CP 1 nc vi cc nc cn li trn TG
Hay: Cn cn thanh ton (Balance of Payments) phn nh ton b lng
tin giao dch gia 1 nc vi phn cn li ca th gii.
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Phng php hch ton trn cn cn thanh ton l: Nu lung tin t nc
ngoi i vo trong nc th ghi bn c v ghi du +; nu lung tin t trong
nc i ra nc ngoi th ghi bn n v ghi du - ". Chnh lch gia lung tin
i vo v i ra thng c gi l ti khon rng.
Cn cn thanh ton c 2 ti khon ch yu: T/K thanh ton vng lai v T/K
t bn(vn).
- Ti khon vng lai (Current Acount) nhm ghi li cc lung thu nhp i
vo v i ra khi quc gia. Thu nhp i vo v i ra c th do:
+ XNK hng ho(hu hnh) v dch v(cn gi l thng mi v hnh bao
gm cc hot ng xut v nhp khu dch v vn ti, du lch, ngn hng,):
Chnh lch gia XK v NK c xp vo mc xut khu rng (NX).
+ XNK cc yu t SX (vn, lao ng, bng pht minh)
Chnh lch gia thu nhp (TN) t cc yu t XK v TN t cc yu t NK
c xp vo mc TN rng t nc ngoi.
+ Chuyn nhng TN gia cc nc vi nhau, bao gm cc khon nh vin
tr, bi thng chin tranh, qu biu, chnh lch gia TN do nhn chuyn
nhng v TN chuyn nhng ra nc ngoi c xp vo mc chuyn nhng
rng.
- Ti khon vn (Capital Acount) nhm ghi li cc lung vn i vo v i ra
khi quc gia.
+ Vn dng mua nh my, mua c/phiu ca cc cng ty c gi l u
t. Chnh lch gia lung i vo v i ra c xp vo mc u t rng.
+ Vn dng gi NH v mua cng tri ca CP nc ngoi, hay trc tip
vay mn t bn ngoi c gi l giao dch ti chnh. Chnh lch gia lung i
vo v i lung i ra c xp vo mc giao dch ti chnh rng.
- Cn cn thanh ton hay kt ton chnh thc nhm tng kt ton b lng
ngoi t i vo v i ra di tt c cc hnh thc:
C (+ )
- Vay ca chnh ph v t nhn
1. Ti khon vng lai
- Gi tr hng ho v dch v
xut khu (X).
N (-)
- Nhn vin tr ca nc ngoi.
- Thu nhp t nc ngoi.
- Gi tr hng ho v dich v
nhp khu (IM)
- Vin tr ra nc ngoi v ng
2. Ti khon vn (ti khon t bn)
gp cho ngn sch cho t chc
- u t nc ngoi vo trong
quc t.
nc.
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- Chi tr thu nhp cho nc
ngoi.
- u t ra nc ngoi.
- Cho chnh ph v t nhn
nc ngoi vay.
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3. Cn cn thanh ton quc t = c n
Nu (+) th c thng d
Nu (-) th c thm ht.
IV. T GI HI OI V H THNG TI CHNH QUC T
1. T gi hi oi v th trng ngoi hi
1.1. T gi hi oi
V d: Mt ngi dn Vit Nam mua 1 kg C ph ti VN th tt nhin
ngi mun tr bng tin VN. Ngi SX C ph cng mun c tr bng
tin VN v chi tiu hng ngy ca h cng c thanh ton bng VN. Tuy
nhin, nu mun mua mt my Photo ca M th bng cch no , cui cng
cng phi tr bng USD cho ngi M. Ngc li, ngi M mun mua C ph
ca VN th cui cng, bng cch no cng phi tr bng VN Vic mua
bn gia 2 nc s dng 2 loi tin khc nhau i hi phi c s chuyn i loi
tin ny sang loi tin khc. T hnh thnh nn t gi hi oi.
Khi nim
T gi hi oi (Foreign Exchange Rate) l gi c ca 1 n v tin t ca
1 nc tnh bng tin t ca nc khc.
Hoc T gi hi oi l t l trao i gia ng tin trong nc vi ng
tin nc ngoi.
Thng thng, thut ng t gi hi oi c ngm hiu l s lng n
v tin ni t cn thit mua 1 n v ngoi t.
Gi nh xt th trng trao i gia VND v USD v xc nh t gi gia
hai ng tin ny. Nguyn l chung c p dng cho cc giao dch khc vi
nc ngoi, nh vy USD c coi l ngoi t ni chung, v gi tr ca USD
c tnh theo VND c coi l TGH ni chung.
V tin ca mt nc c trao i vi tin ca nc khc trn th trng
ngoi hi, do cu v ngoi t chnh l cung v VN, trong khi cung v ngoi
t chnh l cu v VN.
V l do ny m mt l thuyt v TGH gia D USD v SUSD hoc DVND hoc
SVND. Tuy nhin, tin cho vic phn tch s xem xt cu v cung v USD v t
gi ca USD tnh theo VND.
K hiu:
e - T gi hi oi ca ng ni t tnh theo ngoi t.
E - T gi hi oi ca ng ngoi t tnh theo ng ni t.
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V d: T gi hi oi ca VN tnh theo USD l e = 1USD/15.322 VN hay
E = 15.322 VN/ USD.
Chng hn t 15.322 VN/USD ln 16.322 VN/USD, c ngha l gi ca
ng USD tng v gi ca ng VN gim. Tht vy, nu trc y ch cn 15.322
ng l mua c 1 USD, th by gi phi cn n 16.322 VN mi mua c 1
USD, tc ng USD tng gi. Ni ngc li, trc y 1 USD ch mua c
15.322 VN, th nay 1 USD c th mua c 16.322 VN, tc VN b gim
gi.
Nh vy, nu e tng th ta ni ng ni t tng gi hn trc
(appreciation), tc ng ngoi t gim gi hn trc (E gim). Ngc li, nu
e gim th ta ni ng ni t gim gi hn trc hay mt gi (depreciation),
tc ng ngoi t tng gi hn trc (E tng).
*Cch xc nh t gi hi oi trn th trng ngoi hi:
@ Cung v cu v tin trong cc th trng ngoi hi
Cung v USD (SUSD)
c sinh ra t 2 ngun:
- Lng hng ha, dch v v ti sn trong nc m ngi nc ngoi
mun mua.
- Lng vn, lng thu nhp v cc khon chuyn nhng t nc ngoi
vo trong nc.
ng SUSD l ng dc ln ( th di). iu ny biu th khi gi USD
tng (E), Phng v ti sn ca Vit Nam tnh bng USD gim Ngi nc ngoi
mua nhiu hn (X)SUSD tng.
Khi c s di chuyn trn ng SUSD, nu xung pha di, th gi tr ca
USD gim, gi tr ca VND tng. Trong trng hp ngc li, VND gim gi,
USD tng gi.
Cu v USD (DUSD)
c sinh ra t 2 ngun:
- Lng hng ha, dch v v ti sn ca ngi nc ngoi m ngi trong
nc mun mua.
- Lng vn, thu nhp v cc khon chuyn nhng ra nc ngoi.
ng DUSD l ng dc xung ( th di). iu ny biu th khi gi
USD gim (E), Phng v ti sn ca Vit Nam tnh bng USD tng Ngi Vit
Nam mua nhiu hng ha hn t M (IM)DUSD tng.
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Khi c s di chuyn trn ng DUSD, nu xung pha di, th gi tr ca
USD gim, gi tr ca VND tng. Trong trng hp ngc li, VND gim gi,
USD tng gi.
@ Xc nh t gi hi oi
TGH cn bng c xc nh ti giao im ca cung v cu v ngoi t,
ti y cung = cu ngoi t. Nu TGH trong thc t khc vi TGH cn bng
th th trng s c iu chnh (ty theo cch thc can thip) a v TGH
cn bng.
1.1.2. Cc nguyn nhn ca s dch chuyn ca cc ng cung v cu v tin
trn th trng ngoi hi
- Cn cn thng mi: Trong cc /k khc khng i, nu IM ca 1 nc
tng th ng cu ngoi t s dch chuyn sang bn phi.
- T l LP tng i: Nu t l LP ca nc A cao hn t l LP ca nc
B th nc A s phi cn nhiu tin hn mua 1 lng tin nht nh ca nc
B Lm cho ng cu ngoi t dch sang tri v t gi hi oi gim xung.
- S vn ng ca vn: Khi l/s ca 1 nc tng ln mt cch tng i so
vi nc khc, th cc ti sn ca n to ra t l tin li cao hn v c nhiu
ngi dn nc ngoi mun mua cc ti sn y. Lm cho ng cung ngoi t
dch sang phi v lm tng t gi hi oi ca n.
- D tr v u c ngoi t: Tt c u c th gy ra nhng thay i ln
v tin, c bit trong iu kin thng tin lin lc hin i c th trao i hng t
USD gi tr tin t mi ngy.
V d: Trong iu kin mi yu t khc khng i, khi cc nh u t d
bo rng trong tng lai t gi hi oi (e) gim xung hay E tng ln th hin
ti vn c khuynh hng chy ra nc ngoi S dch chuyn v pha phi cu
i vi ng ngoi t c xu hng tng ln, v ngc li.
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2. Vai tr ca t gi hi oi v mi quan h gia t gi hi oi v
cn cn thanh ton
lm r vai tr ca t gi hi oi, ta xt mi quan h gia TGH v cn
cn TM ni ring, cn cn thanh ton ni chung.
C:
NX = X - IM
NX > 0 Cn cn TM thng d
NX < 0 Cn cn TM thm ht
NX = 0
cn bng
T gi hi oi l yu t quan trng nh hng n XK rng (NX). V:
- TGH tc ng n kh nng cnh tranh ca cc sn phm trn TT quc
t. Mt khi gi c sp ni a r tng i so vi sp cng loi trn TT quc t, th
kh nng cnh tranh tng ln X c xu hng tng ln.
Kh nng cnh tranh cn gi l TGH thc t (Real foreign Exchange rate)
l t gi c phn nh tng quan gi c hng ho gia hai nc, c tnh theo
loi tin ca 1 trong hai nc .
Nu chn ng ni t tnh th:
Er = Pnc ngoi tnh bng ni t/ Ptrong nc tnh bng ni t
= (Pnc ngoi tnh bng ngoi t.E)/ Ptrong nc tnh bng ni t
Do gi hng nc ngoi tnh bng ni t th bng gi hng nc ngoi
tnh bng ngoi t nhn vi t gi hi oi danh ngha E.
Hay, kh nng cnh tranh (v gi c) ca 1 loi sp ca 1 nc so vi sp
cng loi SX ti nc ngoi c X theo cng thc:
Kh nng cnh tranh = Er= E.Po/P
T phng trnh, ta thy E r ph thuc vo t gi danh ngha E v mqh gia
gi c tng i gia 2 nc.
Trong :
Po - gi sn phm nc ngoi tnh theo gi nc ngoi (v d: USD)
P - gi sp cng loi SX trong nc tnh theo ng ni a (v d: VN)
E - T gi hi oi danh ngha c tnh bng s n v ni t/1 n v
ngoi t.
V d: gi My tnh ca M tnh theo tin ca M l P o =1000 USD, nu t
gi danh ngha E = 14.000 VN/USD th gi my tnh ca M theo tin
VN l:
1.000 USD . 14.000 VN/USD = 14.000.000 VN
Vi P v Po khng i, khi E E.Po. P ca sp nc ngoi tr nn t tng i
so vi gi sp trong nc. P ca sp trong nc tr nn r tng i so vi sp nc ngoi.
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SP trong nc, do c kh nng cnh tranh cao hn Trong ngn hn X,
IM.
Mt khc, chng 4, ta c:
AD = C + I + G + NX
NX AD, Ycb v ngc li.
Vy, TGH danh ngha E thay i lm thay i cn cn thng mi
(XK rng) tc ng n sn lng, vic lm v gi c.
M rng tc ng ca t gi hi oi vi cn cn thanh ton (xem xt mqh
gia li sut i v t gi hi oi)
Khi i ng tin ni a tr nn c gi hn E nu iu kin t
bn vn ng t do vn nc ngoi s trn vo th trng trong nc, gi nh
cn cn TM cn bng (NX = 0) cn cn thanh ton s thng d. Ngc li, nu
E cn cn thanh ton s thm ht.
3. Cc h thng tin t quc t (cc loi c ch t gi H)
3.1. C ch t gi c nh ( Fixed Exchange Rate)
L loi t gi c quy nh bi CP. Theo c ch ny, CP ng duy tr
kh nng chuyn i ng tin trong nc vi ng tin nc ngoi theo 1 mc
t gi nh trc. V cho d cung v cu ngoi t thay i, vn phi m bo t
gi khng thay i. Nh vy, c th t gi c nh khng phi l mc t gi cn
bng trn th trng. Lc , mun duy tr t gi c n nh th NHTW phi
iu ho lng ngoi t trn th trng ngoi hi. C 2 trng hp phi can thip:
Trng hp 1: T gi c nh cao hn t gi cn bng
Trong trng hp ny, ng ni t b nh gi thp (e). Hnh di, vi
mc t gi c nh l Ef ta c cu nh hn cung gy nn tnh trng tha ngoi t.
Lng ngoi t tha l on AB.
S d tha ngoi t v: Nu theo th trng th t gi E o mc thp, nhng
CP duy tr mc Ef cao hn, gy nn tc ng ging nh s gia tng t gi hi
oi, tc lm tng sc cnh tranh ca hng ho trong nc. Mt mt, nc ngoi
mua nhiu hng ho trong nc lm cho cung ngoi t tng. Mt khc, ngi
trong nc li t mun mua hng ca nc ngoi, lm cho cu ngoi t gim.
Cung ngoi t tng c th hin bng s di chuyn dc theo ng cung
t Ho n B; cu ngoi t gim c th hin bng s di chuyn dc theo ng
E ln hn cu 1 lng = AB.
cu t Ho n A. T cung
Tha
B
Cung ngoi t
Ef
E
0
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Ho
Cu ngoi t
Lng ngoi t

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V c hin tng tha ngoi t nn gi ngoi t (tc t gi hi oi) E c xu

hng st gim. Mun duy tr mc t gi c nh, NHTW phi bo ni t ra mua
ngoi t vo. iu ny mt mt lm tng d tr ngoi t, mt khc lm tng thm
lng tin (ni t) pht hnh vo nn kinh t.
Vic mua ngoi t ca NHTW lm cho cu ngoi t tng, ng cu dch
sang phi. Nu lng ngoi t mua vo bng on AB th ng cu dch sang
phi n im B, mc t gi Ef tip tc c duy tr.
Trng hp 2: T gi c nh thp hn t gi cn bng
Trong trng hp ny ng ni t c nh gi qu cao. Hnh di cho
thy, vi mc t gi c nh l Ef ta c cu ln hn cung, to nn tnh trng
thiu ngoi t.
Lng ngoi t thiu l on CD. Lng thiu ny xy ra v: Vic duy tr
mc Ef thp hn t gi th trng, gy nn tc ng tng t nh s st gim t
gi hi oi (lm E), tc lm gim sc cnh tranh ca hng trong nc. Mt
mt, nc ngoi gim mua hng trong nc, lm cho cung ngoi t gim. Mt
khc, ngi trong nc gim mua hng trong nc, lm cho cu ngoi t tng.
Cung ngoi t gim c th hin bng s di chuyn dc theo ng cung t H o
n C; cu ngoi t tng c th hin bng s di chuyn dc theo ng cu t
Ho n D. T cung nh hn cu mt lng = CD.
E
Cu ngoi t
E
E0f
Cung ngoi t
Ho
Thi
u
D
Lng ngoi t
V thiu ngoi t nn gi ngoi t c xu hng tng (E). Mun n nh t

gi ti Ef, NHTW phi bn ngoi t ra thu ni t vo. Hnh vi ny mt mt lm
gim d tr lng ngoi t, mt khc lm gim bt lng tin (ni t) pht hnh.
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Vic bn ngoi t ca NHTW lm cho cung ngoi t tng, ng cung dch
chuyn sang phi. Nu lng ngoi t bn ra bng on CD th ng cung dch
chuyn sang phi n im D, mc t gi Ef tip tc c duy tr.
* Tuy nhin, c ch ny vp phi mt s kh khn:
- D tr khng tng xng
- Cc cuc khng hong mang tnh u c: Khi r rng rng 1 ng tin
c nh gi qu cao hoc qu thp so vi t gi hin ti ca n, th cc nh u
c s mua hoc bn nhng lng tin ln theo d on ca h v s thay i t
gi hi oi. NHTW s phi chi tiu nhng lng ngoi t ln nhm c gng duy
tr t gi c nh cho ti khi n c thay i.
3.2. C ch t gi th ni (Floating Exchange Rate) hay t gi linh hot
(Flexible Exchange Rate) l loi t gi c quy nh bi cung v cu trn
th trng. Theo c ch ny, CP khng cn phi quan tm n vic iu ho
lng cung v cu ngoi t trn th trng, khi cung v cu v ngoi t thay i
n u, t gi s thay i tng ng n , theo mc cn bng trn th trng.
V d: Gi s do thu nhp tng, ngi VN mua hng ho ca M nhiu
hn hoc chuyn tin ra nc ngoi nhiu hn, lm cho cu ngoi t tng. Lc
ng cu dch chuyn sang phi, t gi tng t E 1 n E2 nh hnh di, ng
VN b gim gi.
D2
S1
D1
B
E
E21
A
Lng ngoi t
Cu ngoi t tng lm cho t gi

Gi s nh chnh sch khuyn khch
u t m cc doanh nghip M u
tng
t vo VN nhiu hn, hoc do hng VN tt hn lm cho ngi M mua hng VN
nhiu hn, lm cho cung ngoi t tng. Lc ng cung ngoi t dch chuyn
D
E
sang phi, t gi gim t E1 1 E2 nh trong hnh di.
S1
E1
S2
A
B
Lng ngoi t
Gio trnh Kinh

t V
M t tng lm cho t gi
Cung
ngoi
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gim

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Tng t, khi ng cu dch sang tri th t gi th t gi gim, ng

cung dch chuyn sang tri th t gi tng. Cn nu c hai ng cng dch
chuyn th t gi c th tng, gim hoc khng i tu tng trng hp.
3.3. C ch t gi th ni c qun l (khng hon ton) - (Flexibility Limited
Exchange Rate)
L s kt hp gia t gi th ni v t gi c nh. Ni cch khc, mc t
gi trong thc t c th c quyt nh bi th trng, cng c th do CP n
nh. Ni chung, nu th trng t bin ng th t gi c th ni theo cung v
cu trn th trng ngoi hi. Nhng khi c s dao ng mnh v nhanh ca t
gi th trng th CP s can thip vo bng cch n nh t gi c nh.
IV. TC NG CA CC CHNH SCH V M CH YU TRONG
IU KIN NN KINH T M
cung cp mt khun kh phn tch c kh nng vn dng cho nhiu
tnh hung khc nhau, chng ta hy nghin cu 2 trng hp sau:
- Trng hp h thng TGH c nh, vi s vn ng hon ton t do ca
vn (TB).
- Trng hp h thng TGH linh hot, vi s vn ng hon ton t do
ca vn (TB).
Do nc ta l nc nh, v vy chnh sch li sut ca nc ta khng nh
hng c n li sut chung ca th gii.
Gi nh mc li sut ca th gii l cho trc (i*)
+ Nu li sut trong nc (i) > (i*) s c nhiu nh u t nc ngoi
mun u t vo nc ta thu c khon tin li cao hn s c 1 lung vn
chy vo nc ta cho n khi i =i*.
+ Ngc li, khi i < i* 1 s vn trong nc s chy ra nc ngoi cho n
khi i =i*.
S dng ng CM// trc honh mc li sut i =i*, b sung vo m hnh
IS - LM .
i
i
=i*
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LM
CM
IS

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- IS biu th cn bng ca th trng hng ho tng ng vi t hp (i,Y)

khc nhau. Trong nn kinh t ng, IS c v cho 1 mc gi nht nh vi G v
T cho IS dch chuyn khi G v T thay i. Trong nn kinh t m, s dch
chuyn ng IS cn ph thuc vo cn cn thng mi hay s th ni ca
TGH.
- LM biu th s cn bng ca th trng tin t, tng ng vi mc cung
tin thc cho (MS/P). Khi (MS/P) thay i, LM s dch chuyn. iu xy
ra trong iu kin nn kinh t m, t bn chuyn ng hon ton t do.
1. Tc ng ca chnh sch ti kho v tin t trong 1 nn kinh t m vi h
thng TG c nh, t bn vn ng hon ton t do
TGH c NHTW quy nh v gi 1 mc c nh cng b. Khi c
sc p nng hoc gim t gi H, NHTW s dng d tr ngoi t can thip,
gi cho t gi gi nguyn mc t gi chnh thc.
Tuy nhin, v vn chuyn ng hon ton t do, NHTW s khng th cng
1 lc theo ui c 2 mc tiu n nh TGH v n nh mc cung tin.
Tht vy, g/s li sut trong nc tng ln, TB nc ngoi dn vo trong
nc gy sc p nng gi ng ni t (e) NHTW phi ng ra mua ngoi t,
tng d tr vo tng cung ni t trn th trng ngoi hi, nhm gi cho t gi
l khng i. Mt khc, dn chng trong nc s bn ngoi t i ly ni t mua
ti sn trong nc.
C 2 tc ng lm cung tin ni t cung tin tut khi s kim sot ca
NHTW, tr thnh 1 bin ni sinh.
1.1. Tc ng ca chnh sch ti kho
Gi s nn kinh t cn bng ngn hn ti A, CP quyt nh tng G.
- Trong ngn hn: P cha kp thay i AD IS dch chuyn sang
phi n IS nu nn kinh t ng, cn bng mi thit lp ti A.
Trong nn kinh t m, ti A th i > i* TB vo trong nc. Khi
NHTW can thip bng cch mua d tr ngoi hi, y ni t vo lu thng. Dn
chng chuyn t ti sn nc ngoi sang ti sn trong nc LM dch chuyn
n LM (do cung tin thc t tng).
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Cn bng mi c thit lp ti A vi Y, li sut cn bng trn ng
CM Chnh sch TK trong trng hp ny c th hn ch thoi lui u t (ng
l phi xy ra trong nn kinh t ng), khuyn khch tng Y.
Trong ngn hn, tc ng ca chnh sch ti kho m rng trong nn
kinh t m mnh hn tc ng ca n trong nn kinh t ng.
- Trong di hn: AD P gim kh nng cnh tranh ca hng ho
trong nc NX Y. Qu trnh s tip tc cho n khi trng thi cn
bng c (A) c thit lp li. Khi , cn cn thng mi thm ht.
Tm li, trong iu kin t gi hi oi c nh, vi mc li sut ca th
gii cho, chnh sch ti kha khng th t cng lc 2 mc tiu: cn bng
trong nc v cn bng ngoi nc.
LM
i
A
A
i
=i*
LM
A
CM
IS
IS
Y
1.2. Tc ng ca chnh sch tin t
G/s nn kinh t ang cn bng A. NHTW thc hin chnh sch tin t m
rng bng cch tng MSn. Vi P = const MSr LM dch chuyn n LM
i<i* cc nh u t trong nc s u t ra nc ngoi 1 lung vn s
chy ra nc ngoi gy sc p gim gi ng ni t (e) NHTW phi bn d
tr ngoi t gi TGH khng i. Qu trnh ny ko di cho n khi mc
cung tin v li sut tr li mc ban u.
Tm li, chnh sch tin t t ra km hiu lc hn so vi nn kinh t ng.
y tc ng ca s m rng tin te b trit tiu bi lung vn ng ca
TB ra nc ngoi do li sut gim i, mc d u t t nhn trong nc c tng
ln (nhng l u t ra bn ngoi).
LM
i
i
=i*
LM
A
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IS
Y

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1.3. Tc ng ca chnh sch ph gi ng tin

Trong iu kin p dng TGH c nh, th t gi hi oi l 1 bin chnh
sch. T gi chnh thc c th thay i tu thuc quan im ca CP thng qua
NHTW.
Ph gi ng tin (Devaluation) l ch ng gim gi ng ni t so vi
ng ngoi t (ngha lm tng E, gim e).
Mc ch: Kch thch XK, hn ch NK Y, tht nghip v ci thin
cn cn thng mi (chnh sch m rng)
Bin php: NHTW b ni t ra mua ngoi t vo. V d, hnh di, gi
s NHTW mua vo 1 lng ngoi t bng vi on A1F, lm tng cu ngoi t,
ng cu dch chuyn sang phi n im F, t gi hi oi tng t Eo n Ef.
E
Ef
Eo
A
F
A
D
Lng ngoi t
Tc ng ca chnh sch ph gi din ra theo hai hng: Lm thay i kim

ngch XNK v thay i lng cung tin. C th:
- Khi ph gi, hng XK tr nn r 1 cch tng i trong th trng nc
ch nhX, IM Hng ho ca nc thc hin chnh sch ph gi tr nn c
kh nng cnh tranh trn th trng quc t NX IS dch sang phi i
TB chy vo trong nc NHTW phi can thip, cng chng mun gi nhiu
hn ni t so vi ngoi t (MS/P) LM dch chuyn sang phi. im cn
bng mi thit lp ti A (hnh trn) nh trong trng hp chnh sch ti kho
m rng. Nhng im khc l IS y dch chuyn do tc ng ca NX ch
khng phi ca G.
* Tuy nhin, v di hn, c 1 s nhc im sau:
- NXADP xy ra lm pht.
- C th b tr a bi cc nc ln cn.
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2. Tc ng ca chnh sch ti kho v tin t trong nn kinh t m, vi h
thng t gi linh hot v TB vn ng hon ton t do
Trong trng hp ny t gi hi oi khng cn l 1 bin s chnh sch. T
gi linh hot c xc nh trn th trng ngoi hi v thay i theo cung cu
trn th trng ny. Hn th na, cc nc c th trng pht trin cao phn ln
nhng thay i ca TGH l do tc ng ca s vn ng TB gia cc nc, ch
khng phi ch do s thay i trong cn cn TM.
Khi 1 lung vn nc ngoi vo trong nc, cu v ng ni t tng
ln e b y ln cao. S tng gi ca ng ni t lm nh hng trc tip n
cn cn TM. Hng XK tr nn t tng i so vi hng nhp khu X, IM
Cn cn TM b thm ht Y.
Nu chnh sch T/K hoc tin t dn n vic tng li sut (dn n tho
lui u t trong 1 nn kinh t ng), th trong nn kinh t m, tc ng lm
NX Y. Nhng lc ny, TGH s l c ch chuyn giao tc ng ch
khng phi l u t hoc tiu dng.
2.1. Tc ng ca chnh sch ti khoa
G/s nn kinh t ang cn bng ti A. CP thc hin c/s TK m rng AD
i v e, EX. Nh vy c s tho lui hon ton, khng ch do u t
trong nc gim m cn do l/s gim(hnh di).
LM
i
=i*
A
A
CM
IS
IS
Y
Anh hng ca c/s TK trong nn KT m t gi
Chnh sch
mhot
rng lm dch chuyn IS n IS. Ti im cb mi E
H TK
linh
th i>i* T bn trn vo trong nc cn cn thanh ton thng d e hay
ng ni t ln gi X IS dch chuyn v v tr ban u A, Y v cn cn
TM xu i.
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2.2. Chnh sch tin t
Hnh di m t tc ng ca vic tng cung v tin ca NHTW.
(MS/P) LM dch chuyn n LM. L/s gim lm e, E. Ngc li, vi tc
ng ca C/s TK, ng ni t gim gi lm tng kh nng cnh tranhNX
ng IS dch chuyn sang bn phi n IS. L/s tr v mc i = i* cn bng
mi c thit lp ti A chnh sch tin t lm
LM Y.
i
LM
i =i*
CM
IS
IS
Tc ng ngn hn v di hn ca vic m rng tin t trong

nn kinh t m
Tuy nhin, xt trong di hn, YP v w cn bng tin t thc t

gim LM dch chuyn dn dn v LM, li sut khi tng dn ng ni t
li tng gi IS dn dch chuyn li IS cn bng c thit lp v tr c.
Tm li, chnh sch tin t c tc ng ln hn trong nn kinh t m, t gi
linh hot, TB chuyn ng t do hon ton. Nhng tc ng b hn ch trong
thi k di hn, lc m P tng, Y tr li mc bnh thng, song w v e tng
cng tc tng ca P.
V. CU HI N TP V BI TP
V.1. Cu hi n tp
1. Th no l li th so snh? V sao cc nc li tin hnh thng mi quc t
vi nhau?
2. Cn cn thanh ton thm ht ni ln iu g v mi quan h kinh t ca mt
nc vi phn cn li ca th gii?
3. T gi hi oi l g? Nhng yu t no c th lm cho t gi hi oi cn
bng thay i?
4. Trong iu kin nc ta hin nay, v sao phi n nh t gi hi oi? Ngn
hng Trung ng c th dng nhng bin php g gi cho t gi hi oi c
nh?
V.2. Bi tp luyn tp
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Gi s Vit Nam v Trung Quc u c th sn xut hng tiu dng v
than. Chi ph c hi sn xut mt n v hng tiu dng ca Vit Nam l 3/4
tn than, ca Trung Quc l tn than. Qui m th trng Trung Quc ln hn
qui m th trng Vit Nam v cc loi hng ho ny.
1. Mi nc c li th so snh v sn xut hng ho no?
2. Nu thng mi din ra gia hai nc th c th d on gi ca mi
n v hng tiu dng l bao nhiu?
3. Nc no s c li nhun nhiu hn nu thng mi din ra gia
hai nc?
4. Nu thng mi quc t din ra th im tiu dng ca mi nc s nm
u so vi ng gii hn kh nng sn xut?
CHNG VII
CC CHNH SCH NHM N NH V M NN KINH T - X HI
I. CHNH SCH TI CHNH (CHNH SCH TI KHA, Fiscal Policy)
* Khi nim:
Chnh sch ti chnh l h thng cc t tng, quan im, nguyn tc
x l ca Nh nc i vi cc quan h ti chnh quc gia thng qua vic s
dng cc cng c ti chnh c th l thu v chi tiu ngn sch.
1. Chnh sch xy dng v s dng ngn sch nh nc
1.1. Nhng kin thc chung v ngn sch nh nc
a. Khi nim
NSNN l qu tin t quc gia, dng chi tiu hng nm cho ton b
hot ng chung ca quc gia.
Theo lut NSNN nm 2002 th:NSNN l ton b cc khon thu, chi ca
NN c c quan NN c thm quyn quyt nh v c thc hin trong 1
nm, m bo thc hin cc chc nng, nhim v ca t nc.
b. C cu NSNN
* C cu dc ca ngn sch nh nc
l s phn b NSNN thnh nhiu cp theo lnh th. Do c cu dc ca
NSNN trng hp vi h thng chnh quyn nh nc theo lnh th th mi cp
chnh quyn theo lnh th ng thi l mt cp ngn sch (nh ngn sch cp
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T, tnh (TP trc thuc T), thnh ph (th x), huyn, x) (NS Trung ng v
NS a phng).
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* C cu ngang ca NSNN
l phn thu - chi, gm:
-Cc khon thu: T thu, ph, l ph, cc khon ng gp ca cc t chc
v c nhn, cc khon vin tr, cc khon thu khc theo quy nh ca php lut,
cc khon do Nh nc vay b p bi chi, c a vo cn i NSNN.
- Cc khon chi: Chi pht trin KT - XH, bo m quc phng, an ninh,
bo m hot ng b my Nh nc, chi tr n ca nc ngoi, chi vin tr v
cc khon chi khc theo quy nh ca php lut.
1.2. Nhng chnh sch x l ngn sch nh nc
a. Nguyn tc xy dng NSNN
Gi B l hiu s gia thu v chi ngn sch, ta c:
B=T-G
(*)
B > 0 ta c thng d ngn sch.
B < 0 ta c thm ht ngn sch.
B = 0 th ngn sch cn bng.
Nguyn tc bao trm l Cn bng NS T = G.
b. Chnh sch x l thm ht NSNN
* Cc trng thi thm ht NSNN
Phn bit 3 khi nim thm ht ngn sch:
(1) Thm ht ngn sch thc t: l thm ht khi s chi thc t vt
s thu thc t trong mt thi k nht nh.
(2) Thm ht ngn sch c cu: l thm ht tnh ton trong trng
hp nu nn kinh t hot ng mc sn lng tim nng.
(3) Thm ht ngn sch chu k: l thm ht ngn sch b ng do
tnh trng ca chu k kinh doanh.
dung ho, mt s nh kinh t ngh p dng 1 kiu ngn sch gi l
NS cn i theo chu ky. Theo , NS nn thm ht trong thi k suy thoi,
nhng tnh trng thm ht phi c khc phc trong thi k hng thnh. Nh
vy v lu di th tng cc khon thm ht v tng cc khon thng d phi b
tr cho nhau, to ra khuynh hng cn bng ngn sch xt trong di hn.
Thm ht NS theo chu k = thm ht thc t - thm ht c cu.
* Cc xu hng c bn cho x l thm ht NSNN, hu qu ca chng
Coi T = t.Y
B = G + tY
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Khi tY< G B <0 Thm ht ngn sch.
Cc loi phn ng:
- Phn ng thun chiu: Khi tY < G Nh nc tng thu, gim G
m bo G = tY B=0 cn cn ngn sch s cn bng nhng y l cch
lm th ng, tiu cc c th gy ra hu qu xu l c th lm cho suy
thoi cng trm trng hn do vic gim chi tiu ca Chnh ph s lm gim AD.
- Phn ng ngc chiu: Nu mc tiu ca Chnh ph l gi cho nn kinh
t lun mc sn lng tim nng vi mc vic lm y , th Chnh ph phi
thc hin chnh sch ti kha ngc chiu (vi chu k kinh doanh). V vy, khi
tY<G thay v tng thu sut bo m thu, Nh nc li gim thu sut
kch thch u t ( I), thay v gim G th NN li G AD. Gi l ngc
chiu v ng l phi T th li T , v ng l phi G th li G.
c th phn ng ngc th phi c d tr quc gia (v gim thu phi c
lng b vo khon gim T ).
* nh hng kinh t ca thm ht ngn sch (hay nh hng kinh t ca
thm ht NSNN)
Cc bin php ca chnh sch ti kho ch ng gy nn thm ht c cu
v ko theo hin tng tho lui u t.
C ch tho lui u t nh sau: khi G tng (hoc T gim) GNP s tng ln
theo h s nhn, nhu cu v tin tng theo. Vi mc cung tin cho trc, li sut
s tng ln lm gim u t. Kt qu l mt phn GNP tng ln c th b mt i
do thm ht cao ko theo tho lui u t. V vy, tc ng ca chnh sch ti kho
s gim i. Tc ng tng t cng c th xy ra i vi tiu dng.
* Cc bin php ti tr cho thm ht ngn sch
C bn bin php ti tr sau:
- Vay n trong nc.
Bng cch pht hnh tri phiu, cng tri ca Chnh ph vay ngun tin
d tr trong dn chng.
- Vay n nc ngoi
- S dng d tr ngoi te
C hiu lc mnh, b p kp thi thm ht ngn sch v ngn c nh
hng tiu cc. Tuy nhin, d tr ngoi t i vi a s cc nc l t.
- Vay ngn hng (in tin)
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y l mt cch dng ti tr cho thm ht ngn sch, in hnh l Vit
Nam nhng nm 80.
* Cc nguyn tc x l thiu ht NSNN c hiu qu
- Chn ng gii php cho nhng thm ht ngn sch c nguyn nhn khc
nhau. C 2 loi nguyn nhn gy nn thm ht ngn sch NN l bn trong v
bn ngoi.
+ Nu l do nguyn nhn trong ni ti nn kinh t th cc gii php c
la chn phi va lm gim thm ht ngn sch phi ng thi l cc gii php
lm tng trng kinh t.
+ Nu do cc nguyn nhn bn ngoi nh thin tai, ch ha, bin ng th
trng quc t, lm tng t ngt chi, gim thu th cn p dng ngay cc bin
php nu bn trn.
- Chn ng gii php cho cc loi thm ht c tnh thi hn khc nhau:
+ Vi thm ht c tnh tm thi, gii php ti tr s c hiu qu hn.
+ Vi thm ht c quy m ln v lu di, th s dng gii php gim thiu
ht, gii php tng trng kinh t.
c. Chnh sch chi tiu ca Chnh ph
* Chnh sch ti kho trong l thuyt
Chnh sch ti kho l vic Chnh ph s dng thu kho v chi tiu cng
cng iu tit mc chi tiu chung ca nn kinh t.
By gi, hy xt xem v mt l thuyt, Chnh ph s s dng chnh sch
ti kho ny nh th no?
- Khi nn kinh t suy thoi (Y<Yp): p dng chnh sch ti kha m rng,
Gim T v tng G.
+ Tng G, tc l tng tin mua hng, trc tip lm tng tng cu.
+ Gim T YD (YD = Y T) C AD
-Khi nn kinh t b lm pht (Y>Yp): p dng chnh sch ti kha thu hp:
tng T v gim G.
AD nm ti AD2 Y2 > Yp nn kinh t b p lc LP cao mun
chng LP phi gim AD gim G hoc tng T.
+ G gim AD gim
AD2
E
AD
+ Tng
ADT Yd gim C . 2
AD1
E1
E0
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Tuy nhin, trong thc t, chnh sch ti kho khng c sc mnh n

nh vy, c bit trong nn kinh t hin i. Trc khi nghin cu nhng vn
p dng chnh sch ti kho trong thc tin, hy xem xt mt c ch c bit ca
chnh sch ny. l c ch n nh t ng. C ch ny bao gm nhng nhn
t n nh t ng mnh m, l nhng nhn t c tc dng hn ch phn no
s dao ng ca sn lng nh thu thu nhp lu tin, tr cp tht nghip,...
Chng hn khi suy thoi, thu lu tin lm gim ngun thu ca Chnh ph nhanh
hn ng thi tr cp tht nghip tng, c tc dng km hm s st gim ca tng
cu, gim bt mc suy thoi. Khi lm pht cao th tnh hnh din ra ngc li.
Tuy nhin, nhng nhn t n nh t ng ch c tc dng lm gim mt
phn cc dao ng ca nn kinh t, m khng xo b hon ton dao ng .
Phn cn li l trch nhhim ca Chnh ph.
* Chnh sch ti kho trong thc t
Trong thc t, tc ng ca chnh sch ti kho b nhiu hn ch. Do:
- Kh tnh ton mt cch chnh xc liu lng cn thit ca chnh sch.
tnh ton liu lng, gim chi tiu v thu mt cch chnh xc, trc ht cn xc
nh c s nhn chi tiu v thu trong thc t.
S nhn chi tiu:
MPC =
C
Y
Do c s khc nhau v quan im, cch nh gi v nhn nhn khc nhau

trc cc s kin kinh t. ng thi c s khng chc chn c hu trong cc
quan h kinh t.
- Chnh sch ti kho c tr kh ln: tr bao gm tr bn trong
v tr bn ngoi.
+ tr bn trong: l thi gian thu thp thng tin, x l thng tin v ra
quyt nh.
+ tr bn ngoi: Bao gm qu trnh ph bin, thc hin v pht huy
tc dng.
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- Chnh sch ti kho thng c thc hin thng qua cc d n cng
cng, xy dng c s h tng, pht trin vic lm v tr cp x hi. Thc t cho
thy, ngoi mt s d n cng cng thc hin thnh cng, a s cc d n t ra
km hiu qu kinh t.
2. Chnh sch thu
- Vn lnh vc thu, thu t hot ng kinh t no. S phn bit i x
mt cch c thc i vi cc ngnh ngh kinh t th hin qua chnh sch i
vi cc ngnh ngh kinh t th hin qua chnh sch v ngnh ngh chu thu.
- Vn i tng thu, thu t i tng no hoc t ch th kinh t no.
S phn bit i x mt cch c i vi ngi chu thu th hin qua chnh
sch v i tng chu thu.
- Vn mc thu, thu nhiu hay t so vi tng thu nhp quc dn. iu
da trn t l tch ly v tiu dng thng qua mc thu thu l chnh sch v
tch ly v tiu dng.
II. CHNH SCH THU NHP (Income Policy)
1. Khi nim
Chnh sch thu nhp (CSTN) l tng th cc quan im, nguyn tc chi
phi hot ng qun l ca Nh nc c lin quan n thu nhp quc dn.
C Y = GNP - De - Te = NNP - Te
bin thu nhp quc dn thnh hin thc tiu dng cn phi gii quyt
hng lot vn sau y:
- Vn tch ly m rng sn xut theo yu cu gin n v phc
tp. Yu cu phc tp l s i hi nng cao trnh cng nghip ha, hin i
ha nn sn xut hin c, nh m nng cao nng sut lao ng hn na hoc
ci thin mi trng lao ng cho con ngi. V vy khng th em tiu dng ht
c.
- Vn phn chia thu nhp quc dn cho nhng ngi tham gia to ra
n.
2. Mc tiu c tnh nguyn tc ca chnh sch thu nhp
- Bo m s cng bng cho x hi.
- Bo m s pht trin sn xut bn vng
3. Cc cng c c bn ca chnh sch thu nhp
a. Ch tin lng
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Can thip trc tip vo vic phn chia TN YD thnh 2 phn tch ly v tiu
dng, thnh thu nhp ca ngi lao ng v ca gii ch.
b. Thu thu nhp
Tc ng vo quan h thu nhp gia ngi giu v ngi ngho.
c. Gi c
Thng qua qun l v gi c dng iu tit tiu dng ca nhn dn.
III. CHNH SCH NGOI THNG
1. Khi nim
L chnh sch ca chnh ph c nh hng n lng xut, nhp khu
hng ha ca mt quc gia.
2. Cc cng c ch yu ca chnh sch ngoi thng
- Thu quan.
- Hn nghch (Quota).
- Tr cp xut khu.
- T gi hi oi.
IV. CHNH SCH TIN T (Monetary Policy)
1. Tin t
Tin l bt c mt phng tin no c tha nhn chung thanh
ton cho vic giao nhn hng hoc thanh ton n nn.
* Cc hnh thi ca tin: tin hng ha, tin quy c, tin sec.
* Chc nng ca tin:
- Phng tin trao i
- Ct tr gi tr
- Chc nng o lng gi tr
- Phng tin thanh ton.
- Thanh ton quc t.
* Khi tin t (M1)
- Theo quan im hp trc nm 1980:
M1 = tin mt (ngoi Ngn hng) + tin gi khng k hn s dng Sc.
Tin mt (Currency) bao gm lng tin giy v tin kim loi nm ngoi
NH. Lng tin ny c nm gi bi h gia nh, doanh nghip, Chnh ph v
nc ngoi. N khng k n lng tin giy v tin kim loi nm trong NH m
sau ny gi l d tr (reserves).
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Tin NH (Bank money) l cc khon k gi s dng sc (checkable
Deposits) hay ti khon sc (checking account).
Khi tin M1 cn c gi l tin giao dch (Transaction Money) hay tin
theo ngha hp.
- Theo quan im m rng t nm 1980 n nay:
M2 = M1 + tit kim c k hn
Gii hn: Khi tin t trong chng trnh kinh t v m cn bn c hiu l
M1
2. Mc cung v cu tin
a. Mc cung tin
* Tin c s
NHT l c quan c quyn pht hnh tin. Lng tin pht hnh ch yu l
tin mt, c gi l tin c s ( hay c s tin).
Tin c s hay tin mnh (Monetary base or High Powered money) L s
lng tin giy v tin kim loi lu hnh khu vc ngoi NH (gi l tin mt)
cng vi s tin giy v tin kim loi do HTNH nm gi di dng d tr. Thc
cht l ton b lng tin giy v tin kim loi c pht hnh vo nn
kinh t.
Trong qu trnh lu thng, mt phn ca lng tin ny c cc tc nhn
kinh t gi li chi tiu v mt phn nm ti cc ngn hng di dng tin d
tr.
Vy khi lng tin c s bng tin mt lu hnh v tin d tr trong cc
ngn hng.
H=U+R
Trong : H l tin c s.
U - tin mt lu hnh.
R- tin d tr trong ngn hng.
* S to tin ngn hng ca tin gi
Gi nh:
- T l d tr chung ( bao gm bt buc v ty ) l ra=10%
- Mi ngi c tin mt u gi ht vo Ngn hng.
- Cc Ngn hng trung gian u cho vay ht s tin k thc cn li sau khi
tr i phn d tr chung.
T l d tr:
ra =
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ra = rbb + rty
R - s tin d tr
D - tin gi
Gi s NH ban u nhn tin gi = D.
NH1 = (1-ra).D
NH2 = (1-ra)2D
..... NHn = (1-ra)nD
Khi tng s tin to ra:
= [(1-ra)+ (1-ra)2 +...(1-ra)n)]D = (1/ra)D (Theo cp s nhn
cng bi q = 1 - ra (Sn = 1/1-qn)
Mt khon tin gi a vo h thng ngn hng s to thm mt khon
d tr mi (R) v cho php to ra mt lng ti a khon cho vay
mi. Nhng khon cho vay mi c a tr li h thng ngn hng,
li tr thnh nhng khon tin gi mi (D) bng 1/R. Kt qu lng
tin gi tng thm l:
D =
1
ra
xR
l cch thc m Ngn hng thng mi to ra tin.

T s 1/ra gi l s nhn tin t. Tuy nhin, s nhn ny c c t gi
nh mi ngi khng dng tin mt trong thanh ton. iu ny khng c trong
thc t, v vy c mt t l tin mt nm ngoi ngn hng, do phi xc nh
s nhn tin t theo cch khc.
- Xc nh mc cung tin (MS)
- Cung v tin (MS- Money Supply) l ton b khi lng tin c to
Tin c s H
ra trong nn kinh t.
MS = M1
(M1 - tin giao dch)
Tin mt
lu hnh
D tr tin
mt ca cc
NH
Cc khon tin gi
khng k hn
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Biu cho thy mc cung tin ln hn nhiu so vi lng tin c s, bi

hot ng to ra tin ca cc NHTM.
Biu cng cho bit tin c s (H) l tin do NHT pht hnh biu hin
di dng tin mt lu hnh v tin d tr ti ngn hng. Cc khon tin gi l
bi s ca tin d tr ca ngn hng.
Xt trn gic tng th nn kinh t quc dn, s nhn tin t chnh l t
s gia mc cung tin v lng tin c s.
MS
mM =
H
mM l s nhn tin t
MS = mM.H
S nhn tin t 1/ra phn trn c gi nh l r a = rb. Nhng trong thc
t, mt phn tin c cng chng gi li di dng tin mt v t l d tr thc
t ca cc Ngn hng thng mi c th ln hn t l d tr bt buc.
C:
MS = U + D
U - tin mt lu hnh
D - tin gi
s=
U
D
s l t l gia tin mt lu thng v tin gi:

V:
Ra
mM
ra =
D
1+s
ra + s
mM t l nghch vi ra; ra ph thuc vo cc yu t sau:

- rbb do NHT quy nh.
- Tnh khng n nh ca ngun tin mt vo, ra ca Ngn hng buc
cc NHTM d tr tin mt nhiu hn.
- S thit hi do tr li sut nu phi vay tin khi thiu ht d tr.
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Cng thc tnh MS ch ra rng, mun kim sot mc cung tin phi c kh
nng tc ng vo lng tin mnh v s nhn tin t.
T l d tr tin mt so vi tin gi (s) cng nh th s nhn tin t s cng
ln. T l ny ph thuc vo thi quen thanh ton ca x hi, vo tc tng ca
tiu dng v cn ph thuc vo kh nng p ng tin mt ca NHTM. Trong
trng hp s rt nh hoc bng khng, v ra = rb th mM = 1/rb .
b. Mc cu tin
- Cu v tin:(LP) l lng tin m mi ngi mun nm gi. Lng tin
nm gi c th l tin mt ngoi Ngn hng hoc tin gi s dng Sc.
Theo John Maynard Keynes, c ba ng c lm cho mi ngi chng ta
mun nm gi tin: ng c giao dch (transactions demand for money), ng c
d phng (precautionary demand for money) v ng c u c (speculative
demand for money). Lng tin nm gi nhiu hay t ph thuc vo hai yu t:
li sut v thu nhp.
- Cc nhn t nh hng n cu tin t:
+ Li sut
Li sut l ci gi phi tr khi vay tin, hay ni chnh xc hn l ci gi
phi tr khi nm gi tin trong tay.
i vi cu giao dch d phng, khi li sut tng th cu tin giao dch
v d phng s gim. L do l khi gi tin trong tay ngi ta phi chu mt
khon chi ph c hi, cho d l tin mt hay tin trong ti khon sc. Chi ph
c hi ca vic gi tin l li sut m l ra bn c th c hng bng cch ny
hay cch khc, nu nh khng gi tin. Nh vy, khi li sut cng cao th chi ph
c hi cng ln. Lc ngi ta cng t mun gi tin trong tay, tc l cu v
tin giao dch v d phng gim.
i vi cu u c, theo Keynes th li sut tng cng lm gim cu v
tin u c.
Tm li, cu v tin nghch bin vi li sut.
+ Thu nhp thc t (sn lng)
i vi cu giao dch d phng, sn lng tng lm cho cu v tin
giao dch v d phng tng. V Y YD C Lng tin nm gi hng
ngy cng phi tng theo. Mt khc, Y lm cho h gia nh c khuynh hng
tin d phng nhiu hn, lm tng cu v tin d phng.
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i vi cu u c, sn lng tng cng lm tng cu u c. Bi v, thu
nhp tng s lm tng ngun tin ct gi nh mt loi ti sn. Do , cu u c
tng khi sn lng tng.
- Quan h t l nghch gia li sut v mc cu tin c gi l hm cu v
tin. Phng trnh ng cu tin c dng:
LP = k.Y - h.i
k,h l cc h s phn nh nhy cm ca mc cu tin i vi thu nhp v li
sut.
th:
i
M1
io
Mo
LP1
LPo
M1
th cho bit:
Mo
Lng tin thc t
Khi thu nhp tng ti Y1 th LP dch chuyn n LP1. Tc l cng vi mc
li sut io nhng cu v tin ln hn (LP1>LPo) khi 1thu nhp tng ln (Y1>Yo).
c. Cn bng th trng tin t

- Th trng tin t cn bng khi: MS = LP
i
LP
MS
io
Eo
Mo
th cho thy: - Eo l im cn bng ca th trng tin t.

- ti mc li sut cn bng io mc cu tin va ng bng
cung tin.
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mc li sut thp hn i0 s c mc d cung tri phiu tng ng lm cho
gi tri phiu gim xung, li tc tri phiu tng ln v y li sut th trng ln
ti i0.
S dch chuyn ng cung hoc ng cu s lm thay i v tr cn bng
ca th trng tin t.
Hnh v di cho bit:
Khi NHTW tc ng n mc cung tin, gi s l bn tri phiu hoc tng
t l d tr bt buc dn n lng cung tin gim xung, ng cung tin s
dch chuyn t M0 sang M1 v li sut cn bng s t io ln i1.
Gim cung tin t Mo M1 dn n li sut tng ln gim mc d cu
tin do mc cung tin gim i.
Khi thu nhp thc t GNPr tng ln nhu cu tin cho giao dch tng ln.
Vi mi mc li sut, li ch cn bin ca vic gi tin tng ln v lm tng mc
cu tin thc t, ng cu tin s dch chuyn t LP o LP1. Vi mc cung tin
M1, li sut cn bng s dch chuyn t i1 n i2 im cn bng mi ca th trng
tin t l E.
i
LPo
i2
i1
io
MS1
MSo
E
E
E
LP1
M1 tiuMkinh
o
Vic kim sot tin t thc t ph hp vi mc
tM
v m l rt kh.
C hai cch kim sot, hoc l kim sot mc cung tin th li sut th trng
s ln xung bi tc ng ca cu, hoc kim sot li sut (n nh li sut)
th buc phi lc lng th trng quyt nh mc cung tin. C hai cch
u gp nhng kh khn nht nh nh khi kim sot lng tin c s H th
vp phi vn hn ch tin mt v tn dng gy kh khn cho hot ng
NHTM v cc hot ng giao dch, khi kim sot LS li gp kh khn trong
nhn bit chnh xc ng cu tin v s dch chuyn ca n,
3. Chnh sch tin t
3.1. nh ngha
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Chnh sch tin t l h thng quan im, nguyn tc do nh nc ra
ch o vic xy dng cc gii php tin t nhm n nh nn kinh t quc
dn.
3.2. Cc mc tiu ca chnh sch tin t
Gi vng gi tr i ni v i ngoi ca ng bn t, cn bng cn cn
thanh ton quc t.
3.3. Cc nguyn tc vn dng tin t
a. Vic s dng tin t lm cng c iu tit v m i vi nn kinh t phi
bm st mc tiu
- Mc tiu v sn lng: ly mc tiu tng trng GNP lm hng u.
- Mc tiu v mc gi
- Mc tiu v vic lm
b. Vic cung ng tin t phi t t v vng chc
Gia tng cung ng tin t t t v vng chc th hin mc chnh lch
cung cu v tin trong lu thng khng c qu ln, khi bm tin vo lu thng
phi thm d ton din v chnh xc hiu ng kinh t x hi.
3.4. Ni dung ca chnh sch tin t
a. Cung ng v iu ha khi lng tin t
Mc cung tin c tc ng mnh m n trng thi hot ng ca nn kinh
t. V tin t c chc nng l phng tin trao i, nn khi hng ho v dch v
c sn xut ra nhiu hn, th cng cn thit phi thay i cung tin. Mi quan
h ny c xc nh trong phng trnh trao i v lng tin t:
M.V = P.Q
M - Mc cung tin (theo ngha rng, c th l M2)
V - Tc lu thng tin t
P - Mc gi trung bnh
Q - Sn lng thc t, do : P.Q = GNPn = Gh
Gi s tc lu thng V l n nh th mc cung tin (M) s c iu
chnh theo s thay i quy m ca GNPn. S thay i cung tin c tc ng trc
tip n li sut ca TT tin t v qua li sut tc ng n tiu dng, u t, xut
khu, Do vy, vic kim sot mc cung tin M c coi l mt chnh sch c
bit quan trng trong qun l v m.
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b. Chnh sch cp tn dng cho nn kinh t
Khi lng tn dng m cc NHTM cung cp cho cc doanh nghip xut
pht t 2 ngun: huy ng lng tin sn c trong lu thng cho vay v s
dng lng tin ca NHT thng qua qu trnh ti cp vn.
NHT c cc chc nng c bn sau:
- Ngn hng ca cc ngn hng thng mi (NHTM): NHTW gi cc ti
khon d tr cho cc NHTM, thc hin tin trnh thanh ton cho h thng NHTM
v hot ng nh mt "ngi cho vay ca phng sch cui cng" i vi
NHTM trong trng hp khn cp.
- Ngn hng ca Chnh ph: NHTW gi cc ti khon cho Chnh ph, nhn
tin gi v cho vay i vi kho bc Nh nc, h tr chnh sch ti kho ca
Chnh ph bng vic mua tn phiu ca Chnh ph.
- Kim sot mc cung tin thc hin chnh sch tin t nhm n nh v
pht trin nn kinh t.
- H tr, gim st iu tit hot ng ca cc th trng ti chnh.
c.Cc cng c ch yu ca chnh sch tin t
NHT iu chnh mc cung tin v cc t l li sut bng nhiu cng c
khc nhau, nhm tc ng vo lng tin mnh (H) v s nhn tin t.
Cc cng c qun l tin t thng dng ca NHT l:
- Hot ng ca th trng m:
Th trng m l th trng tin t ca NHT c s dng mua bn
tri phiu kho bc ca Nh nc.
Hot ng ca th trng m (open market operations) l hot ng ca
NHTW trong vic mua bn cc loi giy t c gi (ch yu l tri phiu ca CP).
Mun tng mc cung tin NHT s mua tri phiu th trng m.
Kt qu l h a thm vo th trng mt lng tin c s bng cch
tng d tr ca cc NHTM, dn n tng kh nng cho vay, tng mc tin gi
nh s nhn tin t. Kt qu cui cng l mc cung tin tng gp bi so vi s
tin mua tn phiu ca NHTW. c kt qu ngc li, NHT s bn tri phiu
ca Chnh ph.
-Quy nh t l d tr bt buc:
T l d tr thp, s nhn tin t s ln l iu kin thun li m rng
tn dng, cc khon tin gi s dng sc s tng nhiu hn, tc lm tng loi tin
Ngn hng. Nh vy m khi lng tin M1 gia tng.
NHT l c quan duy nht c php ra quyt nh v t l d tr bt buc
i vi cc NHTM.
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Tm li, mun tng khi lng tin th phi gim t l d tr bt buc, mun
gim khi lng tin th phi tng t l d tr bt buc ln.
- Li sut chit khu:
Li sut chit khu l li sut quy nh ca NHT khi h cho cc NHTM
vay tin m bo c y hoc tng thm d tr ca cc NHTM. Khi li sut
chit khu thp hn li sut th trng v iu kin cho vay thun li, s khuyn
khch cc ngn hng thng mi vay tin tng d tr v m rng cho vay, dn
n mc cung tin s tng ln.
Tc ng ca li sut chit khu n lng tin mnh H:
Li sut chit khu cng thp th cng kch thch cc Ngn hng trung gian
vay tin ca NHTW. Khi lng tin vay tng th cng c ngha l mt lng tin
mnh H c bm thm vo nn kinh t. V lc khi lng tin M 1 s tng
thm mM ln v ngc li.
Vi chc nng ngi cho vay cui cng, khi NHTW cho vay, mc d li
sut chit khu khng i nhng cng lm tng lng tin mnh. Do cng s
lm tng khi lng tin gp mM ln.
Tc ng n s nhn tin t mM:
Khi li sut chit khu thp hn li sut th trng th cc NHTG sn sng
gim bt t l d tr tu xung n mc thp nht. H khng s b thiu tin
mt chi tr cho khch hng v th c th vay ca NHTW vi li sut thp. Lc ,
v t l d tr tu gim xung lm r a gim mM tng. Khi mM tng, vi lng
tin mnh H nh c th khi lng tin M1 s nhiu hn trc v ngc li.
Tm li, NHTW mun tng khi lng tin th phi gim li sut chit
khu, mun gim khi lng tin th phi tng li sut chit khu.
Ngoi 3 chnh sch ch yu trn y nhm iu tit gin tip vi th
trng tin t, NHTW cn c nhng chnh sch khc nh kim sot tn dng
c chn lc, quy nh trc tip vi li sut, li sut tr cho tin gi s dng
sc,....
- Li sut tr cho tin gi s dng sc (Li sut tn dng)
Do:
s=
U
D
V vy khi li sut tin gi s dng sc tng th dn chng s t nm gi

tin mt hn, tng tin gi s dng sc tc D lm s mM tng M1 cng
tng theo v ngc li.
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- Kim sot tn dng chn lc:
Khi mun gim bt khi lng tin, CP c th dng bin php hn ch
cung cp tn dng cho nhng ngnh khng cn khuyn khch pht trin. Ngc
li, khi mun tng khi lng tin, CP c th tng cung cp tn dng, thm ch
vi li sut u i cho cc ngnh hay cc a phng cn c nng pht
trin.
- n nh li sut cho cc NHTG:
Tm li, c th kt lun: NHT c nhiu kh nng thc t n nh mc
cung tin (M) theo d kin, c th tng thm hay gim bt n bng cc cng c
iu tit ca mnh, ch ng thc hin chnh sch tin t hoch nh.
IV. CHNH SCH TI KHO, TIN T V S PHI HP HAI CHNH
SCH
1. Mi quan h gia chnh sch ti kha v chnh sch tin t
M hnh IS - LM trong nn kinh t ng
1.1. ng IS (Investment equals saving)
- ng IS l tp hp cc t hp khc nhau gia sn lng(SL) v li sut
(LS) m ti th trng hng ha cn bng.
- ng IS th hin tc ng ca li sut n sn lng cn bng, trong
iu kin cc yu t khc khng i.
1.2. Cch dng ng IS
Mun dng ng IS ta bt u t s thay i ca i.
Vi io th c I0 ADo SLCB Yo
Khi io i1 th c I1 AD1 SLCB Y1
Cc t hp(io,Yo), (i1,Y1), cho ta ng IS ( nu Eo v E1).
ng IS l ng dc xung th hin mi quan h nghch bin gia i
v Y.
E1
AD
AD1
ADo
th:
E0
45
o
Yo
Eo
io
Y1
i1
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Cng c th xy dng ng IS bng cng thc ng IS:

Cch xy dng cng thc:
Gi s C = C + MPC (Y - t.Y)
I = I + MPI.Y - d.i
X = X - n.i
G=G
IM = MPM.Y
Khi th trng hng ho cn bng nn:
Y = C + I + G + X - IM
Thay cc yu t trn vo phng trnh cn bng
A
1
b.
m'
AC I G X
b=d+n
Trong : d v n l cc h s o lng quy m u t v xut khu gim
xung khi li sut tng 1% (nu l nn kinh t ng th b = d).
m l s nhn chi tiu ca nn kinh t m (nu l nn kinh t ng l m).
* ngha ng IS
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- Tt c nhng im nm trn ng IS, ng vi mt mc li sut v mt
mc sn lng no , u l nhng im cn bng sn lng. Nh vy, bt c
mc sn lng no nm trn ng IS cng u tho mn phng trnh:
Y = C + I + G + X - IM
Hay: S + T + IM = I + G + X
Ngc li, mi im nm ngoi ng IS u l nhng im khng cn
bng ca th trng sn phm
- ng IS dc xung, phn nh mi quan h nghch bin gia li sut v
sn lng cn bng.
Cu hi t ra l cc mc li sut nm trn ng IS c phi l li sut cn
bng hay khng? Ta bit, LSCB l mc LS m cung v cu v tin bng
nhau. Khi xy dng ng IS, ta cho LS thay i m hon ton khng cp n
iu kin CB ca th trng tin t. V vy, cc mc LS khng nht thit l LS
CB.
* S dch chuyn ng IS:
ng IS c hnh thnh t s thay i ca li sut trong iu kin cc
yu t khc khng i. Do , tc ng ca li sut lm thay i sn lng cn
bng c th hin bng s di chuyn dc theo ng IS. Cn tc ng ca cc
yu t khc vi li sut lm thay i sn lng cn bng s lm dch chuyn
ng IS. Do sn lng cn bng ch thay i khi AD thay i cc yu t khc
vi li sut lm thay i sn lng cn bng th s lm ng IS dch chuyn.
Nguyn tc dch chuyn ca ng IS: Cc yu t khc vi li sut lm
tng tng cu th ng IS dch chuyn sang phi, lm gim tng cu th ng
IS dch chuyn sang tri.
1.3. ng LM
L - Liquidity preference - ch mc cu v tin
M - Money supply - Ch mc cung v tin.
* Khi nim: ng LM l tp hp cc t hp khc nhau gia li sut
v sn lng m ti th trng tin t cn bng vi mc cung tin t thc
khng i.
* Cch dng ng LM:
- Gi s tng Yo n Y1 LP . Lc ny LPo dch chuyn n LP1 th
trng tin t cn bng ti i ln n i1.
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Sn lng ban u l Yo , ta c ng cu v tin LPo do th trng tin
t cn bng ti i1. Kt hp io v Y0 ta c (A) l t hp gia Y v i m th
trng sn phm cn bng.
Kt hp Y1 vi i1 ta c im B: l t hp gia Y v i m th trng
tin t cn bng.
LP1
MS
i
i
i1
io
LPo
Mo
Y
Yo
Lng
tin
Y1
ng LM dc ln, phn nh mi quan h ng bin gia Y v i cn bng.

Cng c th xy dng ng LM bng cng thc:
LP = MS/P
KY - h.i = MS/P
1
i
* ngha ca ng LM:
(kY -
MS
P
- ng LM phn nh cc t hp khc nhau gia sn lng v li sut m

th trng tin t cn bng. Ni cch khc, cc mc li sut nm trn ng
LM lun tho mn phng trnh:
MS/P = LP
Mi im nm ngoi ng LM u l nhng im khng cn bng ca th
trng tin t.
- ng LM dc ln, phn nh mi quan h ng bin gia sn lng v
li sut cn bng.
Cu hi t ra l cc mc sn lng nm trn ng LM c phi l
sn lng cn bng hay khng? Ta bit, sn lng cn bng l mc sn
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lng m tng cung = tng cu (v hng ho v dch v). Khi xy dng
ng LM, ta cho sn lng thay i m hon ton khng cp n iu
kin cn bng ca th trng sn phm. V vy, cc mc sn lng khng
nht thit phi cn bng.
* S dch chuyn ng LM:
LM c hnh thnh t s thay i ca sn lng trong iu kin cc yu
t khc khng i. Do , tc ng ca sn lng lm thay i li sut cn bng
th hin bng s di chuyn dc theo ng LM. Cn tc ng ca cc yu t
khc vi sn lng lm thay i li sut cn bng th ng LM s dch chuyn.
Nguyn tc dch chuyn ca ng LM: Lng cung tin tng th
LM dch xung di (sang phi), lng cung tin gim th ng LM dch
chuyn ln trn (sang tri). Lng dch chuyn ln trn hay xung di
bng vi lng thay i ca li sut cn bng.
Tc ng ca cc yu t khc vi Y lm thay i i cn bng th LM
dch chuyn.
1.4. S cn bng ng thi trn th trng hng ho v tin t
i
i0
LM
IS
2. Tc ng ca chnh sch ti khoa ti trng thi cn bng ngn hn ca
Y1
Y2
Yo
nn kinh t
Y
- Chnh sch ti kho m rng
Dng chng suy thoi, khi sn lng gim xung thp hn sn lng
tim nng, t l tht nghip cao. Chnh ph m rng ti kho bng cch G v
T.
G
AD IS dch chuyn sang phi (i v Y cng tng).
T YdC
Gi s:
Lc u nn kinh t cn bng E 0(Y0,i0), Chnh ph tng chi tiu lm cho
ISo dch chuyn sang n IS1.
cc mc i, sn lng cn bng u tng ln.
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i0 th nu Y tng ln n Y2 lm cho cu tin LP, vi mc cung khng i
th i.
T , lm IAD v sn lng cn bng mi i1 v Y1 .
Nh vy:
Tc ng ca chnh sch ti kha m rng l Y ng thi i (gy ra s
thoi lui u t)
E1 LMo
i
i1
E2
i0
IS1
Eo
IS0
Y1
Y0
Y2
Vi ng IS cho trc, chnh sch ti kho m rng lm tng sn lng

nhiu hay t c quyt nh bi dc ca ng LM. Nu LM dc ng
hn th mc tng ca sn lng t hn so vi ng LM thoi.
- Chnh sch ti kho thu hp:
Khi sn lng cn bng cao hn sn lng tim nng nn kinh t b p lc
lm pht cao. Mun gim p lc LP, Chnh ph phi thc hin chnh sch ti
kho thu hp G v T AD IS dch chuyn sang tri. Kt qu l li sut
cn bng v SLCB cng gim. a sn lng v mc tim nng.
YP
i1
E1
LM
I2
IS1
E2
IS2
3. Chnh sch tin t
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Y1

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- Chnh sch tin t m rng:
Khi nn kinh t b suy thoi, sn lng gim xung thp hn SL tim nng,
tht nghip nhiu, NHTW c th chng suy thoi bng cch a ra chnh sch
tin t m rng. M rng tin t c ngha l lm tng MS bng cch: mua CK ca
CP, gim rbb, gim li sut chit khu, tng li sut tin gi s dng sc. Khi MS
, ng LM dch chuyn xung di (sang phi). Kt qu l sn lng tng, li
sut gim.
LM1
i3
LM2
E2
i1
i2
E1
E3
IS1
Y
Y1
Y2
Gi s:
- Lc u nn kinh t cn bng E1 (Y1, i1). NHT tng cung tin t mt
lng LM1 dch chuyn sang phi n LM2.
- Cung tin do i khi Y cha thay i i ng k t r1 n r3 .
- Li sut lm I v AD , Y v tng cu tin.
Cu tin tng, do vy i s n i2 nn kinh t ti lp trng thi cn bng ti E 2
(Y2,i2).
Tm li, tc ng ca chnh sch m rng tin t lm Y, ng thi i.
Vi ng LM cho trc, chnh sch tin t lm thay i sn lng nhiu
hay t do dc ng IS quyt nh. ng IS cng dc ng th tc ng ca
chnh sch tin t cng yu.
- Chnh sch tin t tht cht (thu hp):
Khi sn lng vt qu sn lng tim nng, nn kinh t b LP cao,
NHTW c th thc hin chnh sch tin t thu hp chng LP. Thu hp tin t
ngha l lm MS gim bng cch bn CK ca CP, tng r bb, tng l/s chit khu,
gim l/s tin gi s dng sc. MS dch chuyn ng LM ln trn (sang
tri). Kt qu l sn lng cn bng tng v SLCB gim.
Gio trnh Kinh t V M

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LM1
i
Din n sinh
vin Hnh Chnh
E2
i2
www.HanhChinhVN.Com
i1
LM2
E1
IS
Y
Y2
Y1
4. Phi hp chnh sch ti kho v tin t

Nguyn tc thc hin:
Khi Y > Yp: Ap dng chnh sch ti kha v tin t thu hp.
Khi Y < Yp: Ap dng chnh sch ti kha v tin t m rng.
- Mc tiu n nh
Chnh sch m rng: Khi nn kinh t b suy thoi (Y<Yp), mun chng
suy thoi th p dng loi chnh sch m rng. M rng ti kho lm tng tng
cu, ng IS dch chuyn sang phi. M rng tin t lm tng lng cung tin,
ng LM dch chuyn xung di (sang phi). Kt qu l sn lng cn bng
tng, li sut c th tng, gim hoc khng i.
Mc thay i ca li sut trc ht do mc dch chuyn ca hai
ng quyt nh. M mc dch chuyn nhiu hay t l do m rng ti kho v
tin t nhiu hay t. Nu m rng tin t nhiu th li sut c kh nng gim
xung, m rng ti kho nhiu th li sut c kh nng tng ln. Qua , chnh
ph c th phi hp chnh sch iu chnh l/s theo mun, trong khi vn a
c SLCB tin n SL tim nng.
Ngoi ra, s thay i ca LS cn ph thuc vo dc ca hai ng IS
v LM. Mc d cng dch chuyn nh nhau, nhng nu ng LM cng nm
ngang th LS cng c khuynh hng gim xung, nu ng IS cng nm ngang
th LS cng c khuynh hng tng ln.
Chnh sch thu hp: (Ngc li)
- Mc tiu tng trng:
y l vic tm cch gia tng nng lc SX quc gia. Yu t c ngha
quyt nh lm tng nng lc SX l vn u t. Mt trong cc bin php c th
thc y u t t nhn l tc ng vo LS.
Gi s Y = YP, CP mun gim i khuyn khch I. Mun cho i gim th
phi thc hin C/S m rng tin t, tc lm tng MS LM dch chuyn sang
phi to im CBSL mi cao hn mc SL tim nng, lm cho LP cao. Mun
khng c LP cao phi gi cho SLCB nm ti mc tim nng. Mun vy phi ko
ng IS sang tri sao cho ct ng LM2 ti Yp. Ngha l phi thu hp ti kho
theo liu lng thch hp.
Gio trnh Kinh t V M
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www.HanhChinhVN.Com
Nh vy, mun khuyn khch I bng cch gim i trong khi vn gi cho
SLCB khng i th phi kt hp m rng tin t vi thu hp ti kho. C/S ny
thc cht l chuyn i c cu kinh t: gim bt hng tiu dng, gia tng hng t
bn phc v cho nhu cu u t.
i
i1
i2
LM1
YP
LM2
E1
E2
IS1
IS2
Y
Y1 =Y2
5. V c ch tho lui u t v cch khc phc
- Tc ng ln t hay c ch tho lui u t:
Khi m rng ti kho, lm tng tng cu thm 1 lng AD th ng
tng cu dch chuyn ln trn. T sn lng CB s tng gp m ln nhiu hn,
tc Y = m. AD. Tuy nhin kt qu phn tch ny cha ng vi thc t v
cha xt n tc ng qua li gia th trng sn phm v th trng tin t.
C th: Khi thc hin chnh sch m rng ti khoa AD IS dch
chuyn sang phi Y . Nhng: Y LP i
i I ADY 1 lng nht nh.
Tc ng lm gim sn lng ny do i gy ra, c th hin bng s di
chuyn trn ng IS t F n E 2. Nh vy, t im cn bng E1 sang im cn
bng E2, sn lng khng tng thm gp m ln so vi AD.
- Cch khc phc NHT tng mc cung tin va duy tr li sut ti i1
LM dch chuyn thnh LM, nn kinh t cn bng ti F v sn lng t Y1.
Gio trnh Kinh t V M

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AD1
AD
E1
AD
45
ADo
E0
Y = m. AD
Yo
Y1
Y
LM
i
i2
i1
E2
= m. AD
EY
1
Yo Yo Y1
Giao trnh Kinh te V Mo

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LM
F
IS

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Giao Trinh Kinh Te VI Mo Cua DHBKHN

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