MC LC

1. Cc i lng THNG K c bn....................................................................................... 3

1.1. Cc gi tr sai s ............................................................................................................ 3
1.1.1. Sai s c bn ........................................................................................................... 3
1.1.2. Gi tr trung bnh (mean, average) ......................................................................... 3
1.3. lch chun (standard deviation) ............................................................................... 3
1.4. lch chun tng i (RSD) hay h s bin thing (CV) ........................................ 4
1.5. Gii hn tin cy ............................................................................................................. 4
2.Phn b thc nghim ............................................................................................................. 5
2.1. Phn b chun ................................................................................................................ 5
2.2. Phn b chun ha ......................................................................................................... 6
2.3. Phn b Student (t) ........................................................................................................ 7
2.4. Phn b F (Fisher) ......................................................................................................... 8
2.5. Phn b Poisson ............................................................................................................. 9
3. Kim tra cc gi tr thc nghim .......................................................................................... 9
3.1. Chun Dixon .................................................................................................................. 9
3.2. Chun Grubb: .............................................................................................................. 11
3.3. Chun t-Test: ............................................................................................................... 12
4. Kim nh gi thuyt thng k ........................................................................................... 14
4.1. So snh cc gi tr thc nghim ................................................................................... 14
4.1.1. Chun Fischer ....................................................................................................... 14
4.1.2. Chun student ....................................................................................................... 16
4.2. Chnh lch cho php ca hai ln xc nh song song ................................................. 18
4.2.1. Hai ln o song song trong php o thng thng .............................................. 18
1

4.2.2. Trong thc t lm t ln xc nh.......................................................................... 18

4.2.3. Hai ln o song song th ng ................................................................... 19
4.3. Phn tch phng sai ................................................................................................... 20
4.3.1. Phn tch phng sai 1 yu t .............................................................................. 21
4.3.2. Phn tch phng sai 2 yu t khng lp ............................................................. 22
4.3.3. Phn tch phng sai 2 yu t c lp .................................................................... 22
4.4. Phn tch tng quan ................................................................................................... 23
4.4.1. Tng quan tuyn tnh ......................................................................................... 23
4.4.2. Hi quy a tham s ............................................................................................... 24
4.5. iu kin c ngha ca ch s ..................................................................................... 26
4.5.1. S c ngha ........................................................................................................... 27
4.5.2. Cch ly gi tr gn ng ...................................................................................... 27
4.6. S lan truyn sai s...................................................................................................... 27
Kt lun................................................................................................................................... 30
Ti liu tham kho .................................................................................................................. 30

1. CC I LNG THNG K C BN
1.1. Cc gi tr sai s
1.1.1. Sai s c bn
Sai s l s chnh lch ca gi tr thc t o t c vi gi tr chun. S chnh lch ny
c biu din theo hai cp :
_ Sai s tuyt i:

_ bit mc chnh xc ngi ta dng sai s tng i:

1.1.2. Gi tr trung bnh (mean, average)

S trung bnh s hc n gin l gi tr chia tng tt c cc lng bin quan st c cho s
quan st.

1.2. Phng sai (dispersion, variance)

Phng sai l trung bnh ca cc lch gia cc lng bin v s trung bnh s hc ca
lng bin tnh bng bnh phng nhng hiu s cc gi tr ring l v gi tr trung
bnh:

n l s th nghim (n < 20); n - 1 l bc t do.

n l s th nghim (n > 10); l gi tr thc.

1.3. lch chun (standard deviation)

lch chun l cn bc hai ca phng sai, v y cng l ch tiu hon thin nht ca
thng k tnh trung bnh phng cc lch. Hay cn gi l sai s bnh phng trung
bnh c trung cho phn tn d liu thc nghim:
3

hoc

1.4. lch chun tng i (RSD) hay h s bin thing (CV)

L h s tng i so snh lch tuyt i trung bnh (hoc lch chun vi trung bnh
s hc hay phn tn ca s liu so vi gi tr trung bnh:

1.5. Gii hn tin cy

Gii hn tin cy s dng chun t-Student lm bin gii tin cy thng qua h s e. H s e
cn c gi l bin ti a v ti thiu ca gi tr trung bnh:

Nh vy khong tin cy l:

VD: Mt phng php mi nh lng nhanh lu hunh trong du ha c kim tra trn
mt mu c thnh phn bit t phng php chun b mu cha 0,123% S. Kt qu phn
tch nh sau: 0,112; 0,118; 0,115; 0,119 %S. Cc s liu ny chng t phng php phn
tch c sai lch khng?
Bi gii:
x = 0,112 + 0,118 + 0,115 + 0,119 = 0,464

xi2 = 0,012544 + 0,013924 + 0,13225 + 0,014161 = 0,053854

mc tin cy 95%, t = 3,18 ng vi bc t do l 3, nh vy:

VD: Gy nhim bia bng cch thm OTA vo 5 ml bia lng bit trc cc hm lng,
cho qua ct IAC, mi lng thc hin 2 ln. Tin hnh nh lng bng hunh quang k
lng OTA trc khi qua ct v sau khi thu hi c cho trong bng sau:
Lng OTA nhim vo 5 ml bia
(ng)

Lng OTA thu hi trung bnh

(ng)

SD

4,42

4,86

0,3

10,33

10,52

0,13

22,9

20,89

1,42

48,67

37

8,2

Ta c th tnh gi tr trung bnh ( ) v phn tn (CV) qua bng thc nghim trn:

=>

=>

=>

=>

2.PHN B THC NGHIM

2.1. Phn b chun
nh ngha: X l bin ngu nhin lin tc, c gi l phn b chun nu hm mt xc
sut c dng:

Trong :

e=2,71828

: Trung bnh tng th.

= 3,1415

: lch chun.
5

K hiu: N (, 2)
Tnh cht:
E(x) = ;

Var(x) = 2

Nu bin ngu nhin X c phn phi chun vi E(x)= , Var(x) = 2

K hiu: X~N(,2)
iu ny c th hin phn phi chun ha.

2.2. Phn b chun ha

Bin ngu nhin Z c phn phi chun vi E(x)=0, Var(z)=1, tc l Z~N(,2), th Z c
gi l tun theo quy lut chun ha

Fz(z) i xng qua trc tung, c th hin qua:

Pz (Z z0) = 1 Pz (Z zo) = 1 Fz (zo)

Gi tr Zo: Px (0 Z < Z) = c cho trong bng phn phi, cho php tnh xc sut ca
bin ngu nhin phn b chun ha, phn b chun mt cch d dng.
Quan h gia phn phi N(,2) v N(0,1)
Nu Z~ N (,2) =>

~N(0,1)

2.3. Phn b Student (t)

Phn phi student (t) l phn phi xc sut lin h gn vi phn phi chun. Trong trngh
p phng sai ca tng th cha bit, ta c th thay th chun ca tng th () bng
lch chun ca mu (s), lc ny ta tnh bin ngu nhin t thay cho bin chun Z:

Bin ngu nhin t khng theo phn phi chun m theo phn phi khc, Phn phi student t
l phn phi i xng qua trung bnh bng 0 v c t do bng (n 1). t do cng ln
(ngha l n ln) th phn phi t s tip cn phn phi chun.Trng hp tng qut, mt bin
ngu nhin c phn phi (t) vi t do (df):
P (tv > tv,) =

Bng gi tr t ng vi tin cy v bc t do f = n - 1
f

P = 0,90

P = 0,95

P = 0,99

6,31

12,7

63,7

2,92

4,3

9,92

2,35

3,18

5,84

2,13

2,78

4,6

2,01

2,57

4,03

1,94

2,45

3,71

1,89

2,36

3,50

1,86

2,31

3,36

1,83

2,26

3,25

10

1,81

2,23

3,17

15

1,75

2,13

2,95

20

1,73

2,06

2,79

2.4. Phn b F (Fisher)

Trong thc t, khi s dng phng php so snh trung bnh 2 tp hp th c th c trng
hp gi nh 2 tp hp c phng sai bng nhau hoc tng ng nhau, tuy nhin cng c
trng hp gi nh phng sai khng bng nhau, trong nhng trng hp nh th, cc
nghim thc c th lm nh hng n phng sai cng nh trung bnh. Ta phi da vo t
s chnh lch 2 lch chun:
F = S2/S1 < 1,5
_ Nu t s trn F = S2/S1 < 1,5 cho thy phng sai 2 tp hp gn bng nhau;
_ Nu t s trn F = S2/S1 > 1,5 cho thy phng sai 2 tp hp khng bng nhau;
Gi s c hai mu A v B c c mu n1 v n2 v hai phng sai s1 v s2, chng ta mun bit
phng sai ca 2 mu thuc cng mt tp hp hay l hai tp hp khc nhau. Chng ta phi
thc hin kim nh s khc bit gia hai phng sai v da vo t s F, cn gi l t s ca
phng sai.
F = S12/S12
F (n1 1), (n2 1) l phn phi F (fishers) vi t do n1 1 v n2 1
l phn phi Fishers

Vy:

so snh 2 phng sai ta dng t s:

, trong t s c gi tr ln hn.
Bng gi tr F tng ng vi xc sut 95%(P=0,95) vi cc bc t do k1= n-1 v k2=n2-2
Gi tr f v1
V2

19,00

19,16

19,25

19,30

19,33

19,50

9,55

9,28

9,12

9,01

8,94

8,53

6,94

6,59

6,39

6,26

6,16

5,63

5,79

5,41

5,19

5,05

4,95

4,36

5,14

4,76

4,53

4,39

4,28

3,67

3,00

2,60

2,37

2,29

2,10

1,00

2.5. Phn b Poisson

Trong mt s phng php phn tch hin i, kt qu php o l cc i lng nguyn ri
rc, nh m xung vi phn trong ha phng x, m lng t trong phn tch ph
Rnghen S liu thc nghim trong cc phng php ny c c im nh sau:
_ Kt qu trong tp s liu l nhng s m cc x kin xy ra trong mt khong thi gian.
_ Xc sut s kin xy ra trong mt n v thi gian l nh nhau vi cc khong thi gian
khc nhau.
_ S s kin xy ra trong khong thi gian ny c lp vi khong thi gian khc.
Nu lp li nhiu ln cng mt th nghim th mi quan h gia gi tr o v tn sut c
biu din bng hm phn b xc sut nh sau:

Vi:

x = 0, 1, 2, 3 v l trung bnh ca s cc s kin trong khong thi gian xt.

l trung bnh s ln bin c no m ta quan tm.

3. KIM TRA CC GI TR THC NGHIM

3.1. Chun Dixon
Chun Dixon dng kim tra cc gi tr thc nghim cn nghi ng, hoc loi tr sai s th
bo, khi s th nghim nh (n < 10).
9

xn l gi tr nghi ng, n l gi tr ln nht xmax hoc nh

nht xmin. Gi tr xn+1 l gi tr ln cn ca xn. Nu
Qtn>Qlt (bng 3.1) cn b gi tr xn.

Bng 3.1: Bng kim nh Dixon

N

90%

95%

99%

0,941

0,970

0,994

0,765

0,829

0,926

0,642

0,710

0,821

0,560

0,625

0,740

0,507

0,568

0,680

0,468

0,526

0,634

0,437

0,493

0,598

10

0,412

0,466

0,568

VD: Nhng kt qu xc nh hm lng % Fe2O3 trong mt mu l: 2,25; 2,19; 2,11; 3,21;

2,38; 2,32. C gi tr sai s th bo no khng?
Ta c: xmax= 3,21; xmin=2,11. Qlt = 0,625.
|

Vy Q > Qlt, gi tr xmax = 3,21 l sai s th bo b loi b.

|

Vy Qmin < Qlt, gi tr xmin khng phi l sai s th bo nn gi li.

10

3.2. Chun Grubb:

Chun Grubb dng kim tra cc gi tr thc nghim cn nghi ng, hoc loi tr sai s th
bo, khi s th nghim nh (n < 10).
|

11

xn+1 l gi tr ln cn ca xn. Nu Qtn>Qlt (bng)

xn l gi tr nghi ng, n l gi tr ln

cn

gi

tr

xn.

nht xmax hoc nh nht xmin. Gi tr

3.3. Chun t-Test:

Cc sai s th bo thng ri vo cc gi tr cc i hay cc tiu, dng cng thc sau loi
tr: Ttn = (xmax x)/ SD hay Ttn = (x xmin)/ SD.
Nu Ttn < Tlt => S liu c gi li v ngc li.
Bng 2.3: Bng kim nh t-Test

1,414

1,412

12

2,633

2,387

1,723

1,689

13

2,714

2,426

1,955

1,869

14

2,759

2,426

2,130

1,996

15

2,800

2,493

2,625

2,093

16

2,837

2,523

2,374

2,172

17

2,871

2,551

2,464

2,237

18

2,903

2,577

10

2,540

2,292

19

2,932

2,600

11

2,606

2,343

20

2,959

2,623

VD1: bi ging VD trn

Ta c: n = 6; P = 0,95 => t = 1,996

12

Ttn = (xmax - ) / SD = (3,21 2,41) / 0,4 = 2

Ttn > tlt (2 > 1,996) => xmax l sai s th bo cn loi b.
Ttn = ( - xmin) / SD = (2,41 2,11) / 0,4 = 0,75
Ttn < tlt (0,75 < 1,996) => xmin khng phi l sai s th bo nn gi li.

ttn > tlt : Phng php mc sai s h thng.

13

4. KIM NH GI THUYT THNG K

4.1. So snh cc gi tr thc nghim
4.1.1. Chun Fischer
Chun F dng so snh lp li ca 2 dy th nghim, bng cch so snh t s hai
phng sai.
D1 l phng sai ln hn ng vi t do k1= n1 1; D2 l phng sai
b hn ng vi bc t do k2= n2 1; Do gi tr F lun ln hn 1.
Nu Ftn > F (bng 4.1.1) th chnh xc ca 2 dy s liu l khc nhau
v ngc li.
14

Bng 4.1.1: Bng phn b Fisher F1-p vi p = 0.05

k2

k1
1

12

24

164,4

199,5

215,7

224,6

230,2

234,0

224,9

249,0

254,3

18,5

19,2

19,2

19,3

19,3

19,3

19,4

19,5

19,5

10,1

9,6

9,3

9,1

9,0

8,9

8,7

8,6

8,5

7,7

9,6

6,6

6,4

6,3

6,2

5,9

5,8

5,6

6,6

5,8

5,4

5,2

5,2

5,0

4,7

4,5

4,4

6,0

5,1

4,8

4,5

4,4

4,3

4,0

3,8

3,7

5,6

4,7

4,4

4,1

4,0

3,9

3,6

3,4

3,2

5,3

4,5

4,1

3,8

3,6

3,6

3,3

3,1

2,9

5,1

4,3

3,9

3,6

3,5

3,4

3,1

2,9

2,7

10

5,0

4,1

3,7

3,5

3,3

3,2

2,9

2,7

2,5

11

4,8

4,0

3,6

3,4

3,2

3,1

2,8

2,6

3,4

12

4,8

3,9

3,5

3,3

3,1

3,0

2,6

2,5

2,3

13

4,6

3,8

3,4

3,2

3,0

2,9

2,6

2,4

2,2

14

4,6

3,7

3,3

3,1

3,0

2,9

2,5

2,3

2,1

15

4,5

3,6

3,3

3,1

2,9

2,8

2,5

2,3

2,1

16

4,5

3,6

3,2

3,0

2,9

2,7

2,4

2,2

2,0

17

4,5

3,6

3,2

3,0

2,8

2,6

2,4

2,2

2,0

18

4,4

3,6

3,2

2,9

2,8

2,6

2,3

2,1

1,9

19

4,4

3,5

3,1

2,9

2,6

2,6

2,3

2,1

1,8

20

4,4

3,5

3,1

2,9

2,6

2,6

2,3

2,1

1,8

VD1: Theo kt qu 6 ln phn tch CaCO3, bng phng php A v phng php B, ta thu
c kt qu nh sau:
_ Phng php A: n1 = 9 v phng sai D12 = 0,634; k1 = n1 1 = 8
_ Phng php B: n2 = 12 v phng sai D22 = 0,245; k2 = n2 1 =11
Hai phng php c khc nhau khng?
Ta c: F = 2,95
15

Vy F < F (2,59 < 2,95). Hai phng php cho kt qu ging nhau.
4.1.2. Chun student
Chun t-Tsudent thng c dng:
_ So snh gi tr trung bnh thc nghim v gi tr thc:
|

Nu ttn < t (bng 3.3) s khc nhau l khng c ngha.

Nu ttn > t (bng 3.3) s khc nhau l c ngha.

_ So snh hai gi tr trung bnh ca hai dy th nghim:

Nu ttn < t (bng 3.3) s khc nhau l khng c ngha.

Nu ttn > t (bng 3.3) s khc nhau l c ngha.
_ So snh s khc bit khi s dng hai phng php khc nhau xc nh 1 mu:
d l s khc bit gia hai phng php xc nh cng 1

mu. Vi dtb l s khc bit trung bnh gia hai phng

php.

VD: nh lng Cholesterol trong 6 mu mu, ngi ta s dng hai phng php A v B
cho kt qu:
Phng php
TT
A

Phng php

Sai bit
(di)

TT
A

16

Sai bit
(di)

1,46

1,42

0,04

1,97

1,80

0,17

2,22

2,38

0,16

1,13

1,09

0,04

2,84

2,67

0,17

2,35

2,25

0,10

Hai phng php c khc nhau khng? T= 1,2.

Ta c: dtb = (0,04 + 0,16 + 0,17 + 0,17 + 0,04 + 0,10) / 6 = 0,113

=> t > t => Phng php A khc phng php B.

Tnh gii hn tin cy :

Th d : Php xc nh Ni trong thp cho kt qu :

Tnh P ng vi KTC cho trc v f cho trc :

17

4.2. Chnh lch cho php ca hai ln xc nh song song

4.2.1. Hai ln o song song trong php o thng thng
Rmax = aSD

a l h s cho trong bng 4.2.

Rmax l bin cc i cho php.

Yu cu:x1 x2 < Rmax

4.2.2. Trong thc t lm t ln xc nh
Rmax = bR

b l h s cho trong bng 4.2.

R l bin trung bnh ca nhiu ln phn tch.

Bng 4.2: H s dng cho chnh lch cho php gia hai ln xc nh
n

18

2,77

3,64

2,46

3,23

3,31

4,12

1,96

2,43

3,63

4,40

1,76

2,14

3,86

4,60

1,66

1,98

VD: nh lng Nit hai ln ta c kt qu sau: 2,96% v 3,19%; cho bit R ca hai phng
php qua nhiu ln phn tch l 0,057
Ta c: P = 0,95 v n = 2; ta c b = 1,96.
Rmax = 1,96 x 0,057 = 0,112%.
R = 3,19 0,23 = 0,23%.
Vy: R > Rmax (0,23 > 0,112) => Mt trong hai ln xc nh sai.
4.2.3. Hai ln o song song th ng
Tin hnh o song song trn cng mt mu c lm ng nht ca cng mt l mu v
c thc hin bi cng mt kim nghim vin bng cng phng php c lch chun l
SD, cho kt qu x1 v x2, gi tr thc (l thuyt) ca hot cht trong mu l xo = 100%.
Yu cu:
+ R = x1 x2 = Rmax = 3,31 SD (h s 3,31 tnh cho n = 2; P = 0,95).
.

+
Trong :

_ xo l gi tr thc.
_ 1,96 l gi tr gii hn trn (up) ca phn b bnh thng vi P = 0,95.
_ SD l lch chun.
_ k l h s gii hn tin cy trn ca SD cho trong bng vi P = 0,95 v bc t

do f = n-1.
Bng h s k (gii hn trn ca lch chun SD)

f=n - 1

f=n - 1
19

15,947

79,786

1,915

2,623

4,415

9,975

1,797

2,377

2,920

5,111

1,711

2,204

2,372

3,669

1,645

2,076

2,089

3,033

10

1,593

1,977

VD: Mt quy trnh th nghim c lch l SD = 1,0% vi n = 7 ln xc nh. Hai ln xc

nh song song cho kt qu l 97% v 98,8%. Gi tr l thuyt l 100%. Kt qu trn c sai
s h thng trong php o hay khng?
BG
Kim tra hai gi tr o t:
R= 97 98,8 = 1,8%
Rmax= 3,31 SD = 3,31 x 0,01 = 3,31%
=> Rmax > R (3,31 > 1,8). Hai s liu trn chp nhn c.
X = (97 + 98,8)/ 2 = 97,9%
So snh vi gi tr l thuyt 100%:
R = 97,9 100 = 2,1%
Ta c n = 7 => f = 7 1 = 6; P = 0,95 => k = 1,915.
Rmax = (1,96 x 1,915 x 0,01)/ 2 = 2,65%
=> R < Rmax (2,1 < 2,65). Hai s liu chp nhn c.
Vy ta c ng l 97,9% 2,65% tng ng 95 ~ 100%.

4.3. Phn tch phng sai

Phn tch phng sai, nh tn gi l mt phng php phn tch thng k m trng im l
phng sai (thay v s trung bnh). Phng php phn tch phng sai nhm c tnh v so
snh cc gi tr phng sai hay l c tnh v so snh cc gi tr trung bnh. Phn tch
phng sai nm trong m hnh tuyn tnh bao gm c hi quy tuyn tnh m ta gp.
Ngoi ra chng ta s lm quen cch s dng R trong phn tch phng sai xt mc
tng thch ca cc gi tr.
20

4.3.1. Phn tch phng sai 1 yu t

Phng php phn tch phng sai khc vi phng php trc nghim t-student hay fischer
l c th phn tch nhiu gi tr trung bnh hay phng sai cng mt lc trong khi 2
phng php trn phi xt theo tng cp vi s lng c th ln n rt ln.
..

X1

X2

Xj

X11

X12

X1j

X21

X22

X2j

Xi1

Xi2

Xij

..

Kim nh gi thuyt thng k: Ho: 1 = 2 = 3

minh ha cho phng trnh phn tch phng sai, chng ta pht biu theo biu thc:
Yij = + i + Eij
Yij Gi tr quan st (ca phn t th j thuc dn s th i)
- Gi tr trung bnh (ca dn s th i)
I - nh hng ca yu t kho st
Eij Sai s ngu nhin
Bng phn tch phng sai
Ngun sai s

DF

SS

MS

TR

Yu t

k-1

SSA

MSA

F = MSA/MSE

Sai s

N-k

SSE

MSE

Tng cng

N-1

SST

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4.3.2. Phn tch phng sai 2 yu t khng lp

4.3.3. Phn tch phng sai 2 yu t c lp

Tng t nh bi ton phn tch phng sai 2 yu t khng lp, ch khc mi mc u c s
lp li r ln th nghim v ta cn kho st thm s tng tc (interaction term) FAB gia 2
yu t A v B.

M hnh thc nghim:

Yu t A

22

Yu t B

Y111

Y121

Y131

Y1a1

Yr11

Yr21

Yr31

Yra1

Yr12

Yr22

Yr32

Yra2

Y11b

Y12b

Y13b

Y1ab

Yr1b

Yr2b

Yr3b

Yrab

Bng phn tch phng sai:

Ngun sai s

DF

SS

MS

TR

Yu t A

a-1

ASS

AMS

FA=AMS/EMS

Yu t B

b-1

BSS

BMS

FB=BMS/EMS

AxB

(a-1)(b-1)

ABSS

ABMS

FAB=ABMS/EMS

Sai s

ab(r-1)

ESS

EMS

Tng cng

Rab - 1

TSS

4.4. Phn tch tng quan

Cng c ny c th ch ra mt tp s liu c lin quan ti mt tp s liu khc hay khng.
Cng c correlation kim tra tng d liu thc nghim vi nhng im d liu tng ng
trong mt tp d liu khc.
Trong phn tch tng quan ngi ta cp n cng ca mi quan h gia X v Y
di dng phng trnh ton hc, t ta c th d on c bin Y ch ph thuc vo 1
bin X v dng phng trnh hi quy l phng trnh ng thng (khc vi cc tng quan,
hi quy bi v phi tuyn).
4.4.1. Tng quan tuyn tnh
th phn tn ca bin Y i vi bin X l tp hp cc im M(xi, yi) trong h ta
vung gc:

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Gi X,Y l cp gi tr cc bin ngu nhin vi s trung bnh l x, y v phng sai l x2,

y2. o lng mc quan h gia X v Y ngi ta dng i lng hip tng quan
(covariance) v h s tng quan (correlation coefficent).
H s tng quan nh gi mc lin quan:

Tnh cht: |R| th hin mc lin quan vi

< 0,7

t lin quan

0,7 0,8

kh lin quan

0,8 0,9

Lin quan cht ch

> 0,9

Lin quan rt mnh m

H s tng quan c th l mt s dng nu c 2 tp s liu nh hng ln nhau cng

hng trong ton b tp s liu v ngc li nu mt s m. Tp hp cc gi tr di chuyn
cng gn nhau th gi tr R cng ln. -1 < R < 1, nu R = 1 tc l cc gi tr di chuyn chnh
xc vi nhau, nu R = -1 tc l cc gi tr di chuyn theo hai hng i lp nhau.
4.4.2. Hi quy a tham s
Phn tch hi quy (regression analysis): gii thch s lin quan tuyn tnh gia x v y, sau
d on gi tr ca y t gi tr bit trc ca x. Cc m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh thng c
thnh lp bng phng php bnh phng cc tiu (least-squares method):

Y bin ph thuc (dependent variable)

X bin c lp (independent variable)
Tng bnh phng cc sai s trong phn tch hi quy (TSS) bao gm hai phn: gii thch
c (RSS) v khng gii thch c (ESS):

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VD: thc hin mt phn ng tng hp hu c Willgerodt Kindler, ngi ta tin hnh
cc iu kin sau:
iu kin

Nhit phn ng (oC), x1

150

165

180

T l amin/ hp cht ceton (mol/ mol), x2

1,0

1,5

2,0

Kt qu phn ng dc dn ra di bng sau:

T l amin/ hp cht ceto

STT

Nhit phn ng (oC),x1

150

1,0

81

180

1,0

89

150

2,0

83

180

2,0

91

150

1,0

79

180

1,0

87

150

2,0

84

180

2,0

90

(mol/mol), x2

Hiu sut (%), Y

Hy cho bit yu t thi gian c lin quan tuyn tnh vi hiu sut ca phn ng tng
hp khng? Nu c th iu kin nhit 160oC v t l mol amin/ hp cht ceton l 1,5
th hiu sut phn ng l bao nhiu?

25

Bin lun:
To = 5,726 > t0,05 (tra bng student) = 2,365 (hay P-value = 0,001 < = 0,05) =>
Khng chp nhn gi thuyt Ho.
T1 = 5,359 > t0,05 (tra bng student) = 2,365 (hay P-value = 0,002 < = 0,05) =>
Khng chp nhn gi thuyt Ho.
F = 28,723 > F 0,05 (tra bng Fischer) = 5,590 (hay Fs = 0,002 < = 0,05) => Khng
chp nhn gi thuyt Ho. =
Vy c hai h s Bo v B1 ca phng trnh Y = 44,25 + 0,25X1 u c ngha thng
k. Hay phng trnh hi quy tng ng vi thc nghim trn.
=> Yu t nhit tng quan tuyn tnh vi hiu sut ca phn ng.

4.5. iu kin c ngha ca ch s

Mt gi tr s hc dng biu din kt qu phn tch s khng c ngha nu khng bit
chnh xc ca n. Do vy, khi biu din cn phi ghi r tin cy ca s liu v cc s liu
cn c lm trn ch mc khng chc chn ca n (uncertanly). Ni cch khc, s
liu ch c cha cc s c ngha. S c ngha trong mt dy s l tt c cc s chc
chn ng v s khng chc chn ng u tin.
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4.5.1. S c ngha
Gm cc ch s t nhin 1,2,9. S khng c th l s c ngha hoc khng phi l s c
ngha ph thuc vo v tr ca n trong dy s.
Nu s khng nm gia cc s khc l s c ngha.
Nu s khng nm cui dy s th th ch l s c ngha nu ng sau du phy.
Nu s khng nm trc du thp phn th khng phi l s c ngha.
Lm trn s: L loi b cc s khng c ngha trong kt qu.
Nu b cc s 6,7,8,9, th tng gi tr trc n ln 1 n v.
Nu loi b cc s 1,2,3,4, th khng thay i con s ng trc n.
Nu loi b s 5 th lm trn s trc v s chn gn nht.
4.5.2. Cch ly gi tr gn ng
i lng o trc tip: i lng o c phi c hoc o, m c. S liu th nghim
c ghi theo nguyn tc s cui cng l s gn ng v s trc s cui cng l s chnh
xc.
i lng o gin tip:
Php tnh cng v tr: lm trn s thnh s chnh xc v ghi s c ngha theo gi
tr no c t s c ngha nht.
Php nhn v chia: kt qu ca php nhn v php chia c lm trn s sao cho
n cha s c ngha nh l gi tr c t s c ngha nht (khi tnh bt n tuyt
i khng tnh n du thp phn).
Php tnh logrit v ngc logrit:
Logrit: ly cc ch s sau du phy bng tng cc s c ngha trong s ban u.
Ngc logrit: ly cc s c ngha bng s cc ch s sau du phy.

4.6. S lan truyn sai s

Tt c cc kt qu phn tch nh lng thu c t thc nghim u c cha sai s ngu
nhin. V vy, cc gi tr c bo co thng l gi tr trung bnh vit ng s c ngha
km theo sai s ngu nhin ca gi tr . Thng thng chng c vit:
(SD
lch chun).
Ngoi ra, khi s th nghim lp li ln, kt qu phn tch cn c trnh by di dng:

27

Tuy nhin, kt qu nh lng thu c t thc nghim trong rt nhiu php o khng phi
l kt qu ca php o trc tip m c th c tnh ton t mt hay nhiu php o trc tip.
Mt khc, mi s liu thu c trong cc php tnh u c lch chun ring, v vy phi
xt n lan truyn sai s gy ra cho kt qu cui cng. Gi s kt qu trc tip a,b,c, l
cc s liu thu c t cc php o trc tip M1, M2, M3 Gi x l gi tr cui cng tnh
ton c t cc gi tr kt qu ring r a,b,c Khi x l hm ph thuc vo cc tham s
a,b,c
Gi a, b, c l lch chun ca cc php o trc tip xc nh a,b,c V gi thuyt l
sai s trong cc php o ny c lp ln nhau th lch chun ca i lng x l:
(

( )

Theo nh lut lan truyn sai s, biu thc ny ng khi x l hm tuyn tnh ca cc php o
a,b,c). Cch tnh lch chun ca i lng x ny ty thuc vo dng cng thc tnh
em s dng.
lch chun ca tng v hiu:
X = a1.a ( SDa) + b1.b ( SDb) c1.c ( SDc) vi a1, b1, c1 l cc hng s th lch chun
ca x l:

lch chun ca php nhn v chia:

th:

Khi , kt qu s ci bu din di dng:

lch chun ca php tnh logarit:

X = k.lna

th

X = k.loga

th

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Cc gi tr lch chun trong php o trn c gi l sai s tuyt i ca php o. i

lng

gi l sai s tng i.

VD: Tnh gi tr biu thc:(65,06 0,07) + (16,13 0,01) (22,68 0,02)=58,51 SDx
Ta c:

Biu din: x = 58,51 0,073

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KT LUN
Mn hc ny cung cp cho chng ta mt s cng c rt qun trng trong vic nh gi v x
l s liu ha thc nghim, c bit l torng lnh vc ha phn tch. Ta c th s dng
phng php tnh cc gi tr sai s mc chnh xc cao nhm phc v cho nghnh dc
phm.Hay s dng phng php loi b sai s bt thng v thit lp gii hn tin cy hay
s dng phng php kim nh cc gi thuyt thng k so snh v nh gi cc ln o
c cc phng php hay mu khc nhau v cng l gip ngi o c xc nh c
chnh xc s ln cn o vi mt mu xc nh trong nhiu nghnh ca ha hc.

TI LIU THAM KHO

[1]. Gio trnh x l s liu v quy hoch ha thc nghim, trng HCN Tp.HCM.
[2]. Nguyn Ph Vinh-Gio trnh xc sut thng k, trng HCN Tp.HCM.
[3]. L c Ngc- X l s liu v k hoch ha thc nghim, NXB HQGHN-2001.
[4]. Hunh Vn Trung- X l thng k v cc s liu trong ha phn tch, NXB HQGHN2005.
[5].Hunh Kim Lin-Thng k ha hc v tin hc trong ha hc-H Cn Th-2006.

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