25

3
3.1

.
.

. ,
?
,
.
,
/
/ .
,

.

: (1)
, (2)
, (3) , (4)
, (5) , (6)
.

3.1.1

.
, (
30, n30).
,
, .
.
,
.
,
. (n=n1+n2).

. : () Z- , ()
t- () .
Z- . (n1) (n2) ,
( x 1 ) ( x 2 ), ( x1 ) ( x 2 ), ,
:

f ( x) =

1
2

x2
e2

3.1

.
( x 1 = x 2 ), :

-
,

26

x1 x 2

Z=

x1 x 2 =

2x1
n1

2x2
n2

3.2

x1 x 2

( Z / 2 < Z < Z1 / 2 ) () ( =0,05).

t-.
. (x1=x2),
:

t=

x1 x 2
n1 2x1

n 2 2X 2

n1 n 2 (n1 + n 2 2)
n1 + n 2

3.3

: (t/2 < t < t1-)

(=0,05) (=n1+n22) .
.
.
(x1=x2), a :
F=

2x1
2x 2

x1 > x2

3.4

( F < F1 ( 1, 2 ) ) (1=n1-1) (2=n2-2)

.

3.1.2
:
o

(-)

- ( )

().

.
:

n
n
n x
P( x ) = p x qn x = p x (1 p )
x
x

3.5

P( x ) (n) (x) , (p)

, (q) e
, (n) , (x)
n
n!
(n) (x)
(n) , =
x
(
x
!

n
x )!

-
,

27

. :
( x ), ( ) ( C s ).
- .
.
:

p( x ) =

( x )2
2

( x x )2
2

3.6

( x ) , ( ) , (x)
, () () (=2,71828 =3,14159).
=1.0:
po (x) =

1
2

x2
2

3.7

(x=0) :
po (x) =

3.8

3.1 -

p(x) y ,
(), - 3.1.
p( x ) = y =

y =
y , = y

z=

1
2
1
2

( x )2
2

( x )2
2

3.9

3.10

x - x x
=
:

y =

1
2

z2
2

3.11

. (=1)
(), (), ().
-
,

28

xx
,

, ,
.

z=

- .
: f(x)
, (xi) .
.
(Galton)

:

p( x ) =

1
y 2

( y y )2
2 2y

3.12

y = ln( x ) , ( y ) , ( y )
.

.
( y , y ).
.
( ). f(z)
() :
f(z) = e

ez

p( x ) = e z

3.13

e z

3.14

:
z = ( x x mo )

3.15

1
= 0.78

3.16

x = x mo + 0.45

x mo = = x 0.45

x me = x mo + 0.286

3.17
3.18

( x ) , ( x mo = ) , ( x me )
( ) .
(x) (z) , p(x) (z) 3.44

.
.
(Pearson) -
, . 14
, III .
.
III :

y = y o e1 +
d

a
d

-
,

3.19

29

() () , (d) , (a)
. () (d)
:
Cv Cs
2

3.20

2 Cv Cs Cv

Cs
2

3.21

d=
a=

3.2
3.2 (d) , (a)
, (a+d)
, .
,
, ( x / x =1),
(a+d)<1, :
a+d=

2C v
< 1.0 C s 2 C v
Cs

3.22

, :

a + d + K min = 1.0 a + d = 1 - K min

3.23

2C v
2C v
= 1 K min C s =
Cs
1 - K min

3.24

:
2C v < C s <

2C
1 K min

3.25

( x , Cv, Cs) (xp)

(p),

, ( , -4). =f(Cs, p),
:
xp
= x
Cv
-
,

3.26

30

(x)
y = ln( x ) .

- (y=logx) ( y , Cvy,
Csy), .

3.1.3

.
( ).
: ,
, , ,
.
.

, ,
, .
.
.
.

. : ,
, , , ,
.
. (x1, x2,
x3,..xn), :
i =n

xi
x + x 2 + x 3 + ..... + x n1 + x n
x= 1
= i=1
n
n

3.27

(n) . (xi) ,
, , .
.
() :

Ki =

xi

3.28

.
, , 50
%. (m).
.
().
.
.
:
=

xi x

-
,

3.29

31

.
(n<30) :
=

xi x

3.30

n 1

.
:
Cv =

(K i 1)

3.31

(n>60). (n<60) (n-1).

.
, . ,
:
i =n

Cs =

(K

1)

i =1

nC v

3.32

e 60 .
:

C s = 2C v

3.33

, :

C s = (3 6 )C v

3.34

(Pearson) :
Cs =

2C v
1 K min

3.35

(Kmin) .
. (Cs=0) .
(0<Cs<0,10) . (0,10<Cs<0,25)
. (0,25<Cs<0,50) (Cs>0,50)
.

3.1.4

,
. ,
.
, ,
/ . ,
,
,
.

-
,

32

3.3

, . ,
(), (10<<20).
,

=f(), <(1/4), :
K=

K max K min
0,25

3.36

,
: <(1/5)n, (n) .

:
=1+1,33ln(n)

3.37

, .
: ()
() .
.

, :
K i =

K max K min
K

3.38

( K i ) .
,
.
.
,
(pi=1/). .

.

3.1.5

.
-
,

33

, (x1>x2>........xn).
:

m
n +1

3.39

p=

2m 1
2n

3.40

p=

m 0 .3
n + 0 .4

3.41

p=

3m 1
3n + 1

3.42

m 0.44
n + 0.12

3.43

p=

p=

(m=1,2,3,....,n) , (n)
.

. ,
(x) (T) (p) (%)
:
p=

1
100
T

3.44

3.1.6

.
:
o

2 .
. (ft)
, (fe) , :
2 =

(fe f t )2

i =1

ft

3.45

(2) (=K--1) , ()
, (K) , 3.3.


( 2 < 12 ). ( 0, 12 ),
( 12 ,+ ). (2) ,
, 3.4. () .
(=0,05).
-
,

34

3.4 (2)

.

:

D n = max f e f t

3.46

(fe) (
), (ft) . ( = D n n )
.
( < ), ().

-
,

35

4

. ,
.
,
.

.
.
.

4.1

,
. .

.
. ,
,
:

A Q
+
=0
t x
Q Q2
h
( ) + gA
= gA(S0 Sf )
+
x
t x A

4.1

4.2

(Saint Venant, 1843).

. ,
. ,
,
. ,
.
,
/ . ,
.
,
, ,
,
:

h
(uh) + ( vh) +
=0
x
y
t

4.3

u u
u
h
+
u+
v+g
= g(S ox S fx )
t x
y
y

4.4

v v
v
h
+ u+
v+g
= g(S oy S fy )
t x
y
y

4.5

-
,

36

,
,
-
: , .

.
, ()
(S1), (S2) , 4.1.

4.1
,
, ,
.
.
.
,
, .
,
, , ,
.

4.2

, ,
(Qd) (Qi):
Qd Qi =

dW
dt

4.6

(Qd) , (Qi) , (W)

.
Qd=f(t),
Q=f(z).
,

() . :
Q d (Q + Q + Q ) = A z

dz
dt

4.7

(z) (zi) (zi+1), (dt)

. (Q)
-
,

37

,
(Q) (Q) :
3/2
Q = C P B 2g H

Q = C Q A 2gH

4.8
4.9

(H=z-z) (H=z+H), (z) .

(t), 4.2,
o :
1
1
(Q d1 + Q d2 )t (Q i1 +Q i2 )t = W 2 W1
2
2

4.10

(1) (2)
(t=t2-t1).

4.2
-
(Show) (1984) 1/6
. (Qd1), (Qd2), (Qi1) (W1),
(Qi2) (W2). o

(t).
(t), ,
. (W=(W2W1)) , ,
W=(W2-W1) .

o.

o. .
().
o
,
o.
(Muskingum).

4.3

,
(McCarthy, Burns, Harkness) (1934)
M , .
-
,

38

:
Q
Q
W1 = b( d )m / n W2 = b( i ) m / n
4.11
a
a
() (n)
, (b) (m)
. A (X)
,
:

W = XW1 + (1 X)W2

4.12

,
, ,
(X=0).
, ()
.
,
, (X>0). (
) ( ), (X=0,5).
(X=00,3).
(W1) (W2), :
W = K[ XQ dx + (1 X)Q ix ]

4.13

(K=b/am/n), (x=m/n). (x=0,6),

(x>0,6). ,
, (X1,0).
(W), (Qd) (Qi):

W = K[XQ d + (1 X)Q i ] W = KQ i + KX(Q d Q i )

4.14

() (W)
(Q) (t).
() . (K) (X)
. e
4.3, :
W1 W 2 = K[X(Q d2 Q d1 ) + (1 X)(Q i2 Q i1 )]

4.15

Q i2 = Q i1 + C1 (Q d1 Q i1 ) + C 2 (Q d2 Q d1 )

4.16

(C1) (C2) :
C1 =

t
K(1 X) + 0,5t

4.17

C2 =

0,5t KX
K(1 X) + 0,5t

4.18

-
,

39

4.3
(X) (K) (C1) (C2)
().
(X). (K)
(X):

K=

0,5t[(Q d2 + Q d1 ) (Q i2 + Q i1 )]
X(Q d2 Q d1 ) + (1 X)(Q i2 Q i1 )

4.19

,
.
(X).
,
, 4.4. (X)
, , .
(K).

( dW / dQ ) (K). (K)
,
.

4.3
t
, (K)
. , ()
,
4.12 (X). (X)
-
,

40

,
. (t) (2KX t K).

(t).
, .
:

(K) (X)

(C1) (C2)

Qd=f(t)
(Qi)

(t), ()
, (X)

4.12
(Qi2, Qi3, ).

-
,

41

5

5.1

.
.
.

.
.
( , )
.
.
,
.. ,
(,
, )
( , , , ).
(
: ),
( )
( ) .
.
:

, ,
-, (- ).

,
, , ,
.
, .
[Clark,1973] , /

.

.
,
. ,

.

5.2
, (X)
(Y) :
-
,

Y( t ) = f ( X t , X t 1, X t 2 ,.....Yt 1, Yt 2 ,........, 1, 2 ,......) + t

42
(5.1)

:
1, 2-

, :

-
-
-
-

(/)
, .
/ , .

.
,
.
,
.
,
.
,
, . (lumped)
,
( ),
.
-

.
-

() ( , gridepoints),
.

5.3

, .

,
( )
( ).
,
,
. (3D)
, . ,
,
.
(2D) , (1D)
.
,
,
.
, (
).
-
,

43

,
,
. ,
, Sain-Venant-
.
,
.
,
(, ) :
Y( t ) = f ( X ( t ) , t )

5.2

:
(t)-,
(X(t))- ,
(Y(t))- ,

(f)-
.
, , P(x, y, t), ,

-Q(t), :
Q ( t ) = f (P( x,y,t ) , t )

5.3

:
(x), (y)- - ( , ).

.

, .

(- ), -
,
, -
,
, -
.

- g(t), :

Q ( t ) = g( t )P( t t )dt

5.4

:
P(t-t)- , t =1, 2, 3, ...

5.4
, :

- ,
,
.

- :
,
,
,
,
,
,
.
-
,

44

( ),
(, , ,
.).
(GIS).
,
,
.
,
(HIS).
( ) ,
(, , , , .).
.
,
. , ,
. ,
.

,
, .
GIS
.

- - (HIGIS).
, HIGIS,
.

5.5
:

,
,
( ),
,
,
.

. ,
.
.

,
. ,

.

.
.

, ,
.
.4.1.

-
,

45

4.3
5.1

5.6
,
.
.

5.6.1 Nashov
Nashov-
n
. (VR)
(Q) , VR=k.Q. (k) .

.
n- :
t

U( 0,t ) =

t
1
( )n1 e k
k (n 1)! k

5.5

(k) (n) . Nash (1960)

,
( ) , k=m1.m2, n=1/m2.
:
m1 = 36.7 A 0.3 OLS 0.3 , m1 = 23.1 L0.3 EA 0.33 ,
m 2 = 0.39 L0.1 ,
() (km2),
(L) (km),
() (),
(OLS) ().
Nashov-
( 2000 km2) .

.

-
,

46

5.6.2 Stramflow synthesis and reservoir regulation-SSARR

Stramflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation-SSARR US Army Corps
of Engineers (1958).
. ,
, .

SSARR :
.
,
, ,
. ,
.

: , ,
,
, ,
, , ,
, .

5.6.3 System hydrologied europe-SHE

System Hydrologied Europe-SHE
: -Wallinforda,
-SOGREAH (1976), 1983
Bringschweiga .
.

, ,
, , , ,
.
, ,
(lyer) .

,
,
.
5.6.4 TANK
TANK Sugawara (1988).
n-,
, (, ).

.. n . ,
.
.
,
, .
.
m , (nxm ).
-
,

47

m
(1 ) (m ).

.
, ,
(a, b, c) ,
.

5.6.5 Soil and water assessment tool-SWAT

Soil and Water Assessment Tool-SWAT d-r Jeff Arnold USDA,
Texas, USAP (2001). .

,
: (
), ( SCS CN ),
(Hargreaves, Penman-Montheit, Priesly-Taylor ), , ,
.
:
, , , ,
. ,
(grid), HRU-Hidrologic
response units.
HRU. HRU, GIS
,
.

5.6.6 Hydrologic modeling system- HEC-HMS

Hydrologic Modeling System- HEC-HMS US Army Corps of Engineers

(Hydrologic Engineering Center-HEC).
HEC-1 (HEC,1998), HEC-1F(HEC,1989), PRECIP
(HEC,1989) HEC-IFH (HEC,1992).
( JavaTM ) HMS.

.

HEC-HMS ( )
,
. HEC-HMS :

, ,
,

,
, ,
,

,
.
(precipitation-runoff
processes) ,

,
,

-
,

48

, routing methods
,
.

HEC-HMS HEC-HMS
Technical Reference Manual (USACE, 2000).
, .
HEC-HMS ():

(basin models), .

(DEM). GIS (Spatial Analyst )
.
(ArcGIS
Shapefile), HEC-HMS .

(meteorological models),
.
e , .

: , Thiessen- , (inverse
distance metod) , (unlimited numbers of recording
and non-recording gages) ,
(the gredded precipitation metod) .
Priestley-Taylor
.
, .

(Control specifications),
.
- ,
.

;

(Input data), ,
, grid , .

Data Storage System (HEC-DSS) .
HEC-DSSVue,
HEC-HMS .

(pathname)
: /A/B/C/D/E/F/. ,
.
. B
, -ID. C
(, , , ).
: FLOW , PRECIP ,
STORAGE , EVAPORATION , VOLUME ,
FLOW-In , FLOW-OUT . D
, E
. F
.
Excel ,

.

-
,

49

HEC-HMS
,
.
HEC-Geo HMS Arc View ,
Avenue (Spatial Analyst).
(GUI). GUI, ,
, ,
,
. GIS, HEC-GeoHMS HEC-HMS,
e .4.2. GIS ,
HEC-GeoHMS GIS
. GIS
(DEM), ,
, .. HEC-GeoHMS DEM
HEC-HMS
HEC-HMS.

5.2 GIS, HEC-GeoHMS HECHMS

-
,