The Arab Spring:

What it represents & implications for national security

(Data from Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, & Saudi Arabia)

Mansoor Moaddel (PI)

Arland Thornton (Co-PI)
Stuart Karabenick
Linda Young-DeMarco
Julie de Jong

The Arab Spring:

What it represents & implications for national security
(Data from Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, & Saudi Arabia)

Overview
The Arab Spring as a departure from extremism: Non-ideological
movements for democracy & economic prosperity
The Internet as an ideologically-neutral organizing tool
A shift in peoples political and cultural values
Who participated in the Arab Spring?
Westernization, democracy, equality, & economic prosperity
Interest in Western technology
Positive implications for national security:
(1) The Arab Springs focus on freedom and democracy counters tendencies
toward political violence
(2) Positive attitudes toward Westernization and Western technology provide a
basis for constructive dialog with the Arab public

Data Collection Methods

Face-to-face interviews with nationallyrepresentative samples
Survey Field Period
Egypt
June August 2011
Iraq
January February 2011
Lebanon
March July 2011
Saudi Arabia January February 2011

Survey questionnaire available:

http://mevs.org/data/survey-summary/1004

Sample Size
3,496
3,000
3,034
2,005

Peoples Explanations for the Arab Spring:

Movements for democracy & economic prosperity
% reporting main reason for the Arab Spring

70%

60%

59%
51%

50%

40%

30%

25%

20%

15%
9%

10%

10%

9%
2%

9%
2%

3%

4%

0%

Freedom &
democracy

Economic
equality &
prosperity

Islamic
government
Egypt

Counter Western Part of a Western

influence
conspiracy
Lebanon

Arab unity

%Relying on Satellite TV, Internet, or Mobile as Sources

of Information
80%
74%
69%

70%

62%

60%
50%

49%

49%

40%
30%

28%

20%
14%

14%
10%

10%
0%
Egypt

Iraq
Satellite TV

Internet

Saudi Arabia
Mobile

Trends in values among Egyptians,

Iraqis, and Saudis
National Identity
Which one of the following best describes you?
1. I am an Egyptian, Iraqi, Saudi, above all
2. I am a Muslim, above all
3. I am an Arab, above all
4. I am a Kurd, above all
5. Other

Egypt: % Expressing I am an Egyptian,

Muslim, or Arab, above all
90%
81%
80%
70%
60%
50%

50%

48%

40%
30%
20%
10%

8%
1%

2%

0%
Above all, Egyptian

Above all, Muslim

2001

2011

Above all, Arab

Iraq: % Expressing I am Iraqi, above all

70%
63%
59%

60%

57%

56%

50%
40%
32%
30%
23%
20%
10%
0%
Dec.-2004

Apr.-2006

Mar.-2007

Jul.-2007

Dec.-2008

Jan.-2011

Saudi Arabia: % Expressing I Am Saudi, Muslim,

or Arab, above all
100%
90%
80%

75%

70%
60%

46%

50%

44%

40%
30%
20%

17%
9%

10%

8%

0%
Saudi, above all

Muslim, above all

2003

2011

Arab, above all

Trends in values
Religion & Politics
Is it very important, important, somewhat
important, not important, or not at all important
for a good government to
1.Implement only the Shari'a law?
2.Implement only the wishes of the people?

Egyptian Muslims:
Peoples Wishes Versus the Sharia
70%
64%
60%
50%

48%

40%
31%
28%

30%
20%
10%
0%
Shari'a law

Laws according to the people's wishes

2001

2011

Egypt: Which is better in a politician?

Strong religious beliefs or strong commitment to
national interests(2011)
90%
78%

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
22%
20%
10%
0%
Strong religious beliefs

Strong commitment to national interests

Iraq: % Agree that Iraq would be a better place if

religion and politics are separated
80%
70%

69%

Dec.-2008

Jan.-2011

60%

60%
50%

70%

55%
50%

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Dec.-2004

Apr.-2006

Oct.-2006

Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for the Sharia

& in trust of religious institutions
90%

84%

80%
70%

69%

60%
50%

46%

40%
31%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Shari'a law very important

Trusting religious institutions a great deal

2003

2011

Egypt: Democracy vs. Strong head of govt

(% Strongly agree)
90%

84%
79%

80%
70%

68%

60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
9%

10%
2%

5%

0%
Democratic political system
2001

Strong head of government

2008

2011

Iraq: % Strongly agree that form of government

is good
70%
60%

59%
55%

53%

50%
40%
30%

30%

22%
20%

15%
11%

11%

12%

10%

5%

6%

0%
Democracy

Islamic government
2004

Apr-06

Strong head of
government
2011

Army rule

7%

Saudi Arabia: Democracy as the best form of

government (% agree)
80%
71%
70%
60%

58%

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

2003

2011

Trends in values
Attitudes toward gender equality
1. A wife must always obey her husband.
2. Men make better political leaders
than women do.
3. University education is more important for
boys than it is for girls.

Egyptian Muslims: Increase in support for

gender inequality
80%
68%

70%

60%

60%
50%

55%
47%

40%
30%
21%
20%

16%

10%
0%
Wife must always obey her
husband

Men make better political leaders

2000

2011

University education is more

important for boys

Iraq: Decline in support for gender inequality

(% Strongly agree)
80%
71%
70%

64%

69%

63%

60%
50%
42%
40%
33%
29%

30%

25%

20%
8%

10%
0%
A wife should always obey her
husband

Men make better political leaders

2004

2006

2011

University education is more

important for boys

Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for gender

inequality (% Strongly agree)
70%
61%
60%
53%
50%
44%

44%

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Men make better political leaders

A wife must always obey her husband

2003

2011

Egyptian Muslims: Correlates of protest

participations (Correlation coefficients)
.30
.25

.25

.25

.20
.20
.15

.17
.14

.15

.18
.16
.13
.11

.10
.05
.00

.11

Egypt: Increased Westernization is tied to

increased gender equality, democracy, and
overall standard of living
100%
90%

93%

95%

Democracy

The overall standard of living

90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Equality between women & men

COUNTRY Would Be Better with Technology of

the West (2011)
100%
90%

90%

89%
85%

84%

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Egypt

Iraq

Lebanon

Saudi Arabia

Summary
1.
2.
3.
4.

Increase in national identity

Decline in support for the sharia
Increase in gender equality (except in Egypt)
Positive implications for national security:
(1) The Arab Springs focus on
freedom and democracy
counters tendencies toward
political violence
(2) Positive attitudes toward
Westernization and Western
technology provide a basis
for constructive dialog with the
Arab public