quarter

q1
q2
q3
q4
q1
q2
q3
q4

sales
1071.367
1105.26
1125.65
1085.552
1093.75
1011.67
917.6388
1017.165

1st avg
0.976672
1.007569
1.026157
0.989603
1.082861
1.001598
0.908503
1.007038

quarter
q1
q2
q3
q4
q1
q2
q3
q4

sales
additive additive seasonality indices
1071.367 -25.5903
29.0519
1105.26 8.30275
4.9584
1125.65 28.69275
-31.8622
1085.552 -11.4053
-2.1481
1093.75 83.69405
1011.67 1.61405
917.6388 -92.4172
1017.165 7.10905

1.029766206
1.004583436
0.967329805
0.998320552

multiplicative seasonality
1040.398
1100.217
1163.667
1087.378

additive seasonality
1042.315
1100.302
1157.512
1087.7
1064.698
1006.712
949.501
1019.313

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.992868
R Square
0.985787
Adjusted R Square
0.952343
Standard Error
135.4768
Observations
48
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
13 44556170 3427398 186.7388413
1.18046E-27
35 642388.7 18353.96
48 45198559

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Intercept
0
#N/A
#N/A
Jan
890.3018 67.7384 13.14324
feb
946.5879 67.7384 13.97417
Mar
973.1176 67.7384 14.36582
April
990.6221 67.7384 14.62423
May
986.4466 67.7384 14.56259
Jun
1028.615 67.7384 15.1851
May
1031.856 67.7384 15.23296
Jul
986.0166 67.7384 14.55624
Aug
1007.309 67.7384 14.87057
Sep
909.3105 78.21757 11.6254
Oct
895.0447 78.21757 11.44301
Nov
919.9768 78.21757 11.76177
Dec
882.1214 78.21757 11.27779

P-value
#N/A
4.25535E-15
6.9553E-16
3.03999E-16
1.7764E-16
2.01802E-16
5.66614E-17
5.14728E-17
2.04475E-16
1.07124E-16
1.4304E-13
2.22375E-13
1.03123E-13
3.32852E-13

Lower 95%
#N/A
752.7855878
809.0716044
835.6013875
853.1058724
848.9303849
891.098291
894.3398376
848.5003448
869.7926515
750.5203806
736.2546045
761.1867238
723.3312851

Upper 95%
#N/A
1027.818106
1084.104123
1110.633906
1128.138391
1123.962903
1166.130809
1169.372356
1123.532863
1144.82517
1068.100577
1053.834801
1078.766921
1040.911482

Lower 95.0%
#N/A
752.7855878
809.0716044
835.6013875
853.1058724
848.9303849
891.098291
894.3398376
848.5003448
869.7926515
750.5203806
736.2546045
761.1867238
723.3312851

Upper 95.0%
#N/A
1027.818106
1084.104123
1110.633906
1128.138391
1123.962903
1166.130809
1169.372356
1123.532863
1144.82517
1068.100577
1053.834801
1078.766921
1040.911482

months - independent but demand is dependant

A(t)
Jan
feb
Mar
April
May
726.7923
1
0
0
0
766.0851
0
1
0
0
798.275
0
0
1
0
847.4892
0
0
0
1
828.8587
0
0
0
0
898.3365
0
0
0
0
945.1
0
0
0
0
850.281
0
0
0
0
891.3319
0
0
0
0
871.2166
0
0
0
0
807.5667
0
0
0
0
860.6689
0
0
0
0
720.3061
0
0
0
0
778.1943
1
0
0
0
807.648
0
1
0
0
883.3969
0
0
1
0
869.6035
0
0
0
1
912.3918
0
0
0
0
947.531
0
0
0
0
911.365
0
0
0
0
957.1911
0
0
0
0
903.4923
0
0
0
0
845.0428
0
0
0
0
959.9287
0
0
0
0
882.0968
0
0
0
0
957.6074
0
0
0
0
998.1845
1
0
0
0
1092.213
0
1
0
0
1095.769
0
0
1
0
1102.644
0
0
0
1
1071.367
0
0
0
0
1105.261
0
0
0
0
1125.648
0
0
0
0
1085.552
0
0
0
0
1093.749
0
0
0
0
1011.672
0
0
0
0
917.6388
0
0
0
0
1017.165
0
0
0
0
968.4507
0
0
0
0
1058.036
1
0
0
0
1120.405
0
1
0
0
1115.03
0
0
1
0

Jun
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

May
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Jul
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1142.752
1133.169
1163.329
1145.311
1051.042
1140.663

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
0
0
0
0

0
1
0
0
0
0

0
0
1
0
0
0

0
0
0
1
0
0

0
0
0
0
1
0

Aug

Sep
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Oct
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0

Nov
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

Dec
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
1

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0