Energy in Gulf Countries

! "#
$% &' ""# ! /

+- . 0 +0 $ ()

*+ ,

563 7 $ * 89 5 0 : ; 5 1<6 -
=0
. 0 10 23

5A . > +$ ? @)
.. 0 0 0 B 50 5 1'
7
C' D $% 5 C
5 9 D6D -% 50
B 0- 7 B 0 B D @9 E+ 5 7 F CB 3 5
C+

$% C'
0
0 - 0 C G + 1H C@
'3 '+D 0 B 19 C- D - 1$ 2

G3 '
> .' B 7 0 CD 0 E - '

.0
$%
7 89 C-G '() 0( =$ <9 -G 0 23 5 @
.&3 ?
A ) 3 , B 0 C. + - ' % C5* . ( 1'G 7
C' .0G 7 + 5< 13
C.
% 9 ( 9 @
1' 0 1'
7 9 C

7 7D 7 E G
0 ?
7 - 7 $ 70 .

5 0 =$ ' D> C9 *+
J 0 563 7 5A .3 -G ( =$ . 9 D F C I
. ( 1
7 C B* K$ * K+) K+ L - 7 J ? 9 9
5 3 =$ 23 5 () @ E
M ) C F M( B-
= C5+

.7 0 M 7 +

'63 7 5 C, 7 $ ? 9 1*
89 N 0
.0 )- E
+
. (0 96 @+ L - 7 C

'9
G C23 +- 5+
5* 1' =% 5 ( 5 7 CG3 $ * 7 K$ ,
C23 +- )- =$ DA P + K$ * K K* $ ? 1+ .E
, 89
.)-
< Q 23 +- B* =$ D> C( P 3, $ * N0 R)
.7 7 7+$ 5 7 CK +
K )- 0
=$ 23 +- B* 0 1
S 5 @ M -G T* . $ !3
563 5 7 0 +- * 0 +
=$ H *) K* F9 .. . ( F , 5 -G ! U( F , H :*$,

7V F =$ . 6$ .-G .
5

5$, 5 ( C<
=$ 3 ) F9 @ ) .)- W , G NG3 =% M> 0 +
5 7 C. X + 7 K $ R0 2 =% 5 , 5 '$ N G C5
C 7 0 8() 5 1$ -
7; R0 .6+
?- 89 7
.

=$ +
1$ :% & - NY 7 7
5 N0 5) 7 J )- =$ ?- . 7V C 89 5 '
+ . ( 1S
7 . 7$ 2 R0 7 CY -G 23 5 1 . K( U ) J

.Y -G =$ ?-
5
M

5 .

%
:*$, 5 C0 )- E
K K'
% 0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 1'

F (. 0 C 0
0 C -) C7[$ C C7 ) !
9
""# 1$ .10 0- Y - 7 %# C13 -G - 7 %#]
.0 -G . 7 %#],`
5 89
Y 13 -G ( <$ =$ K K$ 0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 0
'$( 7V CY -G 7 '- . 1S .K
0* 5 Y <$ 7% C0-
=$ 0 0 23 5 7 0 ! :*$, 5 5 .. '
$-+ 1'
% . =% M() B ' 1S CK[)a - '() $ B -G W-)
. 2 % -G S
DA ) C 0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 $ -G X

7 & 0 7
-) 9 C! 5 7 K0 ' *$ 1* C(F ) -G . ( 5 H +
U( < M J B) J , 7 1 .. 0 0
0
'0* K0 CX ' : 7 J b3 5 J 0
0 $ + T! 5
O
N0 - + CF , H d:*$ '0

! 5 7, K H .D 563 F H
.-G 7 '%

63
5 7 ]` =% ] 7 C""# J "ef . G 563 13 -G =$ 0 ?- WG B
J 0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 1 + 7 H 7 7 CK
%f,` 9 ) .
CK
NG3 '% -
7% 5 C50G 1 ' (?- WG M) ( G 89 56Y
J K0
."ef 1$ @$ 7 K + CKGG- K*G3
?
=% J -G 0 E
J 0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 ( NG3 B
C 0 23 5 7 0 ! X 3 7 CF , :*$, S 5 X% . 7 '9 .. D
9 CF , H X 3 K ]O F9 7 $ % K * D , 9 .K* K DA D
C. -G 7 Q( 7 19 7 :>9 7 K6) K$ 7 gU( .""# 1$ <(% 8 'H
23 5 7 0 ! F , H :*$, 5 X% 7
J 5 =$ J 1'
. 0
+$ 7 5 , &( 563 .U* 5 -G 0 E
7 0 ! ( :* +
K D b) M , C-G <$ *G3 1D 7 C 0
, ( 7 5 NG3 CD
7 , -
+ 0
0 .7 0 ! 5 7 D M() 0 7
c,#c =% C"e 1$ 1 5 7 f,O 7 '% NG3 '$ 7 C 0 89 :?$
? ?
C =$ 13* EG DA ."e 1$ 1 5 7
7
7 -* C' K$ $ 23 5 N0 7 = C""f 1$ D 23
.5 , ! > K*< F 7 0 0 9 -Y
% C 0 23 5 7 0 ! -G
5 -+ "e] 1$ 7
5 X% BG C"" "e# $ 7 -+ %,O# 8 ) M
50 13 -G =$ 0 ?-
E
7 : ! 5 .0
5*G CK
%e,e` 8 ) 50 J '
G . G J 7 0 !
.F 5) @+ )
5 X% . 9
5 0 9 .% 7$ ' <
, 7 $ 9
&
5 89 7 7H ?S h5+
5 0 89

59 h 0 23 5 7 0 !
.b( 89 . ' 7$ F9 C-G 0 E
'( =$ HG @
7V C $( @- C F6'
=$ . 6$
.?- N 0 7 =$ H $
-G E 0 ( =$ . 1, @* M H
0-+ 89 7 .9 P 3, 5 =$ -Y* C 7 % -G B-+ . 5
7 . * ) . @)- 7 ? + U( X 7% 5 C' =%
7
=$ !0 7 7 C

+ N0 N 0 ( 5 7 X 5+ 7 & 0
. - . ?- N 0 7 53 % C 0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 ()
c
7 + E

, 7 : =$
C23 5 ( G
' L +
7
3 5D J
7$ +
5 N0 $-
.-G 9 E

9 S J
7 K(3 .-G E
. ( 7 7 7 J 7
7
5D @ C, 60 ( 19 7 8 $ -G =% H J E

' 7
5 ! 7 E

6 Q)a % .. D D
'% ? 7 7 K() K-
+ : % ') Y
. G =$ &)
F 7V C-G E
'( =$ 0 23
: H

+
P
=$ &) C5+ E - ?, - -3 B G
. $
0
S DA C- 5
-G 7$ ?+ & 0 NG3 B
! 5 9* 7 B-
) E-
i % F9 ! K $ .E
N 0 ?
13 -G
7 F =$ ? CX G NG3 - 1 3* 7 C 0 23 5 7 0
<$ P
DA . 0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 7 G 9 7 . D
<$
.K K$ W-+ 9 =$ ')G% $ ?
C-G
7
< 7 7A E+ !0 C 0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 ( W * 7$ 7%
:*$, S 5 X% + .N 0 E<+ '* G
B- ' .
@ 7
C. 7 '% &* C3* 23 - K* F9 ."ef 1$
CF ,
7 0 ! 5 J F , 5 ( 7 =$ L * 5 F 5 .E

P :D

D -G =$ ?- + % (
J f 7 L M) -
P =$ 7 5 7 J
' C 0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 -G

D ? . 8
$
7 + S 5, . )- 1G )- 0- Y 5D C)- P 3, (
& ( ' C.0 ( 7 1$ =+ < ' )- - 6D F9 .)-
'Y -G =$ $ 7 5 ' C(Dual-Fired) <D E 1H 50 9 C
=$ J 0 ' J )- 13
$
) C!0 0- Y =$ $ =%
7 C-G - N0 $ -% 7 0 1+ 5*G . , )- F6'
% 7
- 8' 7 9 .() 7 U( 7 J + S J -G X 3
0
.(
J ) ? + 5+

C?- N 0 7 =$ D> 7 0) S
7( 7 5 0 0
, WG '$ 1 C)- 13
E - ? =%
K J 7
( @$ 3 ) F6'
7 C("ef J "`" "` J "`c) 7-G
) 13
B C)- 13
.:G B 19 + . < $ B J ? =%
.E
=$ 8 DA @ 7
J B- J F 5 C7 7 5) K ) &3 M
=$ D> ) (0 W 5D C 0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 @' M ' 7%
CP -
=% 7 0 ! :*$ X ' 9 5D ' .5+
E
,
#
' % ! 7 '$ 70 .. E

, 5 3 C'0
E
, HG 7*
.0 E
* G '0* + =% =0
7 .0 -G 0
+ 7$ C
D;
T-G 7 ' ( 7A 5
C.$
0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 ' +
=(), E 5D C
< .
'
E- X 0 0 1+ '
P 7 7 ? , 5 X 0 $ - 7 . . =
5 -G F6'
50 =$ 7 H6 B C.
@ 89 7, C()
.M + ()
E ? ?
1$ @$ 7 K + ""# 1$ %c,]
BG ) 13 -G 7 F6'
7 %
K + &$* ) M' - +-
. )
E ? ? -G F6'
7V C"ef
.E

5 5 F6'

i % . G F 563 NG3 1 .. G !G 563
5 C'3 -G 0 E
10 B* 5 C 0
J @ 7 J ? 9 1*
=% * C-G E
' b G N 0
CF 0 9 23 9 23 5
+ CE
5 , ! * ? 5 ( 5
.'' '
.5+
B+ ) > -G $( 7$ 0 13
C. - =$ : *
0 E
D , ? C-G $( () 7$ G
5
: * + F 0 .0 E
@ E
-G 23 5 7$ 1D .K3 K
E
0) =$ F DA C$( 89 59 5 23 5 @0 M =$
.-G 0
+ - L + C-G 0 E
5 ' 1 + - @ 1$ 7$ 7 79 ? 0
Y E- 7 . ++ -, =$ : * + 6 N0 1+ % .5 9
+0 CF =% K*% C 1 F H :*$ -G Q( 7 :
J .
. ( J
<
0 C 5 0 =$ 0 C0 E
13 -G 7 ++ N 0 7 7
* D C-G =$ ?- 0) C + C H C3 ()
) =$ &) '
5 -G =$ ?- 7 7 +0 + - !G .0
E

C
- =$ 0 C6+
' --3 1 + :
C0
73 =$ '
. ) CM() - P
C. -G (3 0
.5 0 7 F S C &3
B
M() 7 P C
5 () ( - N 0
7
7 1S .@ K K ) 23 5 1+ M C-G =$ '- . ( 7 &
5 89

=0
5 89 1H0 7 P ' C
5 1H0 M()
B)
5 ?

< & 3 7 F P .)- 7 ' G ( 13

' 1D 7 CK K$ )- , ( =$ 0
; 5 7, C)- P 3 ( =%

7 CK & 3 89 % .'0 . +- =$ 9$ 7 . K ' 5
.X 3 7 7 =$ 5 F $
K
=+

; 5 . -G
'( * F , H :*$, 5 C23 5 7% <+ . G
! L
( G 7V C 7 -G ! Y 7 P 9 C8 ( Y 2 $
.-G ?
=$ < A Y X%
<$ b+ ( 7 Y 0 <$ . ( 7 =$
N 0
C. D
7- @0 Y X% 7, CF S B) 7 P @ C*G3 -G 0
. @G K &
F 0
, 89 NG3 7V CY B 0
=% . * M> -G 0
7
% NG3 ( 53 7V 1D 7 .-G 0 7 U R' K + C5) U R9
i % 5
.-G 0 7 D Y 0
5 X - +0 C0) + &3 5
R 5 @ M 5(G
. 0) =% 5>G . 0) 7 K: C'G( 0) 89 B 9 .E

+ - (3 + 0) =$ d: .N0 '*0 7$ 0 & 7 C1>
5 D, @+ R L - J E

5
J -G 5 . D

.0 ? + 5+
C0 E
=$ F
( 7 '<$ =$ J 23 5 J F6'
. D ! G E $ R)
-G F6'
7 b3
.@0 A -G F6'
@ 1+
+ ()6 K 13
9 .-G

13
[
5 8' -G X 7 K K ) 7 = CWG @ 5 23 5
. B ?
')- B =% 5 89 -* &
.' '
.-G ( 7 '<$ NG3 = C F6'

7 0 C H 5+
13 '-G B 0(
23 5 7V CM *3 P

S 5 7 N 0 . =% K< 9 0 .K D K -G E
F , H U(
F =% K*% .)- 13
'
5 ' ' =% CF , :*$,
'<$ =$ :*$, 5 $ . ?
C 9 ) F , H * G . + 7 M *3 P
.() . &0* =% 0 J @ J -G <$ =$ $ 9 .-G ( 7
0 () Y -G )60 6 C)- 9 K+ ' 89 1+
0 E0 C)- E
+ 3 =$ b3 F9 7 ) .5+

23 +- 7 =$ 7 D B[ .? + P =$ 0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 .
K' U( B) 9 7 C)- 0 E
, M 1'
7 ' U CK K0) 5 0
C'() B 0 23 5 =$ F 7 D > . 7 @ N 0 ?

0 7 =% B- J ? 9 1+ % J 7 .< 0) E+ K
C53 ( 7$
7 0 ! 5 K K6 ? 9 5D 7 = .b(3 1' j + =$ .<G
.5+
' @ 0 --3 B* =$ @ 70
C 0 23 5
]
& '(

) *
G
5
C() "# 1$ -G 0 E
=$ 23 +- 7 -G ( D 1+ 5(G 9 5
J 0 -G ( ' D G 1+ =0
.b (3 @ =$ 3 H 7 F
.-G 0 E
=$ 9 DA 563 7 C+6 G 3 -G ( =$ J .
S 2< =% C3 -G ( - + '% 5+ ":-3," 7 Cb3 5 5
' 7 5A . Y :-3 7 H06 % C =$ <6 + 7 9 7 (+ .(O) ' ? S
.* ! 1' 0 3 -G 5+
G 5(G 9
CM() - 7 K $ ? C0 E
3 -G ( 1'G
P + 7 0 N 0 -G E
7 & 0 .-G 0 E
5$ G @63 7 L M
89 ) 5$ 5 @

=$ B* M - 1+ 7 M() 5 7 C.+0 0
7 CP + 89 5 % .

, d:' + G , 7 K: CP +
-G @0 M 1+ C10 7 P 3, E- -G 7$ 23 -G &63 @ =$ & 0 9
N 0 =$ - 9 D 8 - 5 N 0
&
C23 -G . G 0- D% 0 .23
. 0
, $( 59
+
0 -% 1
J -G E
F J 5 0 7 5<' 0 9 5 M( 7 F
C?- N 0 M C7
< 7 =$ M - ' L .5 9 =$
!+
C(c) 5(G 7 < X 5 9 ($ 7 5 (:) 5 7 9
U( "e "f $ 7 . G G .7 =$ 0
9 Y ) C(#) 13 -G 0
.K6D 5* 7 ) F ,
7V F 0 C13 0
=$ KD 7 &G3 0 -G 0
563 13* 5$ $ 3A = C""# 1$ D 0
U* C(:) 5 C 0

D . .+G( : ? - C 13 -G 1 !+ +, .() 5 .
J "`") D -G ( 5+ . 0
I
5 9 C) Y , 9 7
- +0 $ 563 7 K3 1 +G( C(])
5 $ :' ("ef
D 0 H =$ ' 0 CM
B 5 1 +0 ( F 0 CK
. P
5 9 .(`) . 0 E
B) K +0 K + K + 0 M , C) H 7
.(e) -G 0 E
=$
`
: =$ 7 + @< 7S 13 -G '

7 M C?- = * 0
%
9 ) 5 K 7D6D . $ 7 0
L 0 .1
) D6D =% 1
+ @
C0 0
,
563 . &( 7$ D ?- 0
C(: 1) 5 ?- = 7 K D, :
K J 13 -G X% 8 9 J -G =$ ?- Y 7 7 . () .
1 C. 13
Y =$ . + U( &
.13
.:G . &'
: E-
6 ?S .W 7 @ =% )- =$ H : % 5
7 D 7, C. . K D 0
, BG 0 C (") 10 'H -G =$ ?-
0
, 7 $ .() . B) '* G ++ 89 C: 7$ 7 0 &
7'

5 $ D C ) 7 7$ 13
% %
CK* ) K *G3
B . < ' P + W-) $( W-) @+- 1 9 C"`c 1$ -G (
5+) K Of 7 ? + =$, 7 C5D 5
=$

3 563 C)
. + 7'
7 D P C0
-G ( W ) .("f 1$ K c,O
; 13
. =% M> M() 7 & 0 .(f) 0G 0
, B & =$
= 5
; 13
.:G 7
7 ' C7 =% F
?- = 7 0 C-G
.
=% ?-
(

, -Y @m M)

, N 0 C7
) =% 0 N 0 = 1
+
U* ) 0 N 0 = 7 ! : .() (' - ) + N 0
S 7 7 7 . + 0
9 C0 . + 7$ + !0 (: 5
P =$ .n .... 1, '* G +0 5D + + ?
C * ? ?

= CNG3 7 @ C ' B* 9
) .<G . DA
. + 89 7V (+
.X 50 =% '
5( 5 + F
.0 P =$ 5 + G ?
5 7 7 J <
( ?
0- :
J ; &
$ 7 & 0
- =% -G 5 &'
M J D
7V @ ) .
=%
:
.7 =% @+ 7 7 J .>
C? + P =$ X 1'S 7 . ) 'H 0 N 0 = 7 +, :
' CY *G3 (+ P =$ ' & 7 0 9 .. Y & -Y -
J + . () ' J 5 ! D C0) 7* 6 .10 : B
.(: 5 'H ) 5 7 5) CK *G3 . Y & =% M>
.(O) '0) 7$ H NY =% ' & 89 7
5+
5 0) 7 DA C50
G 7 9 7 7 F N 0 = N G
' 7 K 5+ CB) 1$ K0
! N 9 5D . 0
,
F ?( C-G ( 5 +
. 0
, . K0) '% 5A 7 '
e
) 7 =$ N , 7- -G ) 7" !

=$ '% G) ' = C N0
@)- C5 ! @ 1 M 10 9 G C1D 7 .(c) "& ( 5
= D
1 7 C' D
5> 7 -G =$ U( C@3
B-
=$
.(#) 0
, 0) -
-G $( @
0- B* 9 C13 -G X% =$ .< . ) (:) 5 U*
=$ 0 H :D ( :9 C 6D
i % )- b+ 1 "# 1$ .0
.() "`c 1$ -G
.7 ) 0 Y F C90 7 -G 5$ ? *% . (O
9 7 E
+ )- N< ?
.""f 1$ ) 0 Y ?+$ (c
?
7V $ .(]) ""e# J "# -G $( ' Y N $" ? (3
.5 9 D
=$ B 7 (0 5 + @ 5(G
M)

,
% C 0
' 1D 7 T 0
? 7
)- . 89 56Y
1 %
7 -Y 7 M) 7

, 7 T7$ =% 1
+ '
(: 5 ) 5 * 0

' T( ) -Y 7 G 7) 7- 7 C()- 7

,
1')- E 7 C<
0
7 3A 7

, 7 .E
, ' 5 =$ &)
53 1' X% ( % 7 C 1')- 7 7 (+ 1' 7 - 7 C
7V J (e) (:) 5 "X ( -3" @D M J + 9 7 .(`) ?- = E-
5 0 C"# 1$ .5 =% M C7 -+ =% 0
B )

% .@' 9 1 P -G 0
5) C- 2 23
0 =$ K$ C- 2 ( J 0
563 J 0
0
' 1 + F , H ( "eO 1$ 0 .(") 89 ' ') E

.(Of) 23 5 KS .
7% C0G F
7 G3
7 @ 5*G CE
7$ . 0 P -G P D -G ( 5)
-G 7 D ' 563 7 C + $ 7 8G C5 ! $ 59
'% ( C10 ?- = @ 7 =% ) & 0 89 .N 0
7 Co 9 5D .@% @ 7 @% 7 2 -G K & 0 .F K+
C7 ) N 0 ?- :+% =$ 50 7 B =$ 7 .7 7-3 7 'H 7
.(O) E
M' 0
=$ HG ' 7*
.(OO) . 0
&9 E+ CE
, 7 +
0
, 7 7 - 7 7 9
$
+ CK K K6'
7 1 C0
7+
7+0 563
9 $ 7 =% P C7 - 7 '3
. -
; 70*3 S 7
=% 0 5+ 0 .(Oc) 0
, U* NG3 =% 1D 7 C1H
"
HG % . 1 9 7 C+) +

0 89 G3 7 H 7 7 C0

C 9 0 0G
5 =+ C(O#) 7$ @ 1 + M +
9 -G
.?- N 0 (3 0 @0 +
(3 0
E0 CE

Y D -G ( 0 D
C7 7 'H E
7$6 $ % C! K * 13 -G U( .E
,
7 0 5, - B +$ 7$ 0 1 @ ) .(O) 0
-G (
. () +0 G +0 =$ $ P .(O]) "e "`" $ 7 . G '0
:
C0
5 7$ 0 0
. : .+G( . =% 5,
. 5 , - 1D C+
; +0 1H 3A -G E
. 5 E
I '3

.+G( =% P F 5 C(O`) (5; 5 M) ) 5 ?

. =% +G( . C +0 - L * 7 ) F9 U( F =$ . 6$
7 1 M J ; E
, 1H 3, 7 .9 3 ((3 ' +
0
<(% 5
5 B 1 . 5 I .K$
K6$ J "ef 1$ 5) -G E
K 0
:+% CB 0 7 K ) 0 . D K 3 .9: 0
7 K
. P% =$ . H
E
$ =$ -
+ .
$ L * $ E
0 0- Y K
7 .0
5 7 ) =$ =*) KG C"ef "`" $
E -G 10 0 1 = . . 7 $ .B 0 $*
1 C< 0 ?- C) 1$ 3A 7 0 ?- 1) .@% ' 7 N ,
& 0 7 CE
1 7 =$
0 7 U( 9 .K 5* 7 3 (3 7
?$6 =% A % 7- 7 7V 1D 7 .* 7 KD X ( -3 B+ 7
* S , C. -+ $ KS "X ( -3" W G &
C ) S ?
'
.(Oe)
89 5 B .. S *S (: 5 ) X ( -3 ?- ( C
7 = .W * M S "K J E
' M J 0
, 7 1 'G U( *Y
7 ?- N 0 1
5 'H CE
. Y( 7 1$ 7 H6 0 1 7
9 E
7 1$ 7 & 0 C 0
, 7 E+ =% =0
C7 1$ K< 7 E

7 1 V C89 7 1$ E
7 H6 7 K $ N G 7 . 0
, F M
0
, 7V (: 5 ) 0
I G -% *Y - -3 I C*
@$ 0 9 .7 3; G 7$ CE
5 7$ 8+0 5 , 1+ -
.(O") "! @ G G 7 Y" @ +

f
.X N< ?( 1' 5 C 0

, 19 7 - 7
3 "e] 1$ 0
7 5S 1'Y 7 . 0
, 9 J 3 . -

B J F , H (A
70< 7 7 $ 8 0
U( C?- = 7 K ) X ( -3

-G (
- 9 7 K)6- .1' 5 8+0 =$ K$ CE

."# 1$ 3
," '-' (. ' /
7 +- 89 @ 3 U* .(cf) . G( (3 0- 23 -G B
5 7 @ 7 B-
9 C(c) "# 1$ 0 ( &
$ , 9 C<9
50 C '0- 5 + 1 C+0 8 7
B) ? ) F =% &*[ (O : )
:) 5 (c : ) 5 U* C(cO) P 3, 10 E- + K + CY *G3 -G X% G
E E
7 -
B) 23 +- B ."e "## $ =%
-+ 89 (#
7 C- $ 5+ G NG3 , 9 0 C3* +
K( ' M , C? Y
$ . .(-+ 89 : 5 U* ) .. () P . 6) 5-
563
=% 5 3 5
X . B .( :) 5 7 U* 9 CE
5 3
=% 6)
.5) 7 G E

(O :) 5
-G 0 - 23 -G
.23 9 -
, E $ 7 :H6
.""# F , 7$ . ( <( . C1 R 7$ ( M
+ : (
(c :) 5
" C5 N0 5 + 56Y
G
."e" C9 7 : (
(# :) 5
"e C5 N0 5 + 56Y
G
."e" C9 7 : (
( :) 5
13 -G 5+ G
13 -G
7 G
7 G

G
'H 1

) 5
J 23
<

5 /
.
K* 7D 7
5 /
7 7A
,##
,`c
#,]
"O
O,#`
f,"O
O`,O
"Ò
O",ff
,
c,`
"e#
."e` ! C"Ò 7 : (

( :) 5
"` J "e C10 6) 5 -

."` C1 R : (
=$ -
L 59 ?
(3 0- 23 -G 7 K 3
=% J !0 89 .(] : 5 7 U* ) 23 5 )- .
J @ ) J
$ 7% C(cc) ? 5) . :D
< P + J
. 89 B-
&" :'(63 C3 -G ( +0

, K K9
0
9 C"h 0
, ? N 3 7 7 0 E
=% 53 7 Y b3 -G 7
13 -G 53 7 9 5 7 ."Oe 10 M .90 5) $( '
.-G =$ 5 ( ( ' C5, . () 13 -G B $ 5, . -
@ W
50 . + - m
@ = , T7 7$ G
5 9
-G H & ( , 9 7 C9 D, 9 CD . , =$ 9 5, - 13 -G
7% 5 + C5(G ' . (63 X 3 7 B-
. 3 7 M =% 5 7$ 5, . () 13
0
23 5 5) 7 1D C
P 5) 7 J . 89 59%
.5+
')
' 5H
C-G . ( 23 5 6 ?
) J D
9 Gulf C(c#) Gulf Basing Point 1
& 0 0
1H W * 9
10 3 7 M 7 .
B<* 7 N G 1H 9 .F
23 5 0 23 0
*% 7 0
, E A 1D CF
23 7 a [ ) 9 0
1 C ( M 7
5 ( 7 50 5 bi) CP 1H
< : 7 M C2' 9 .<' 7 (
:D , - '
- Y* 0 .E
=% & NG3 13 -G (
0
=% ? ) -+ U( 7 0 23 =$ 7$ : U[
C(c) D 0 ?
O
1
J -G 0
5H 7% C0) 0
=% ? ) 7 0
U( C7 F .(Basing Point)
.(c]) F
23 0
- J G
'H
(] :) 5
23 0 -G
0
-G ( . F 0 C3 -G ( =$ - M M 9 Y 9 9 7
.F
23 K + 0 23 7 5+
G ' C(G 53 @)
3
* 0 . . ) 5
9 E
8' Y U( 0 , ' B
J G
'H 1
J -G 0
=$ + 7 .9 7, C:-p 23 E
B
$
=$ K G ? U( C(c`) =0
9 5 $ . 0 23 . 7 5
E0 <9 2< Y 89 D .*G3 @% G 7 .G
6 J 23 1 J @$ (
.. =$ (0 89 7 K6 7; !
C 0
, $( 59 N 0 =$ 9 DA
(. ' 01
N 0
? 0 . J 5 -3 0 .K* 23 U( - 9 =$ d:
.(ce) 5 -G =$ ?- @$ 1 CE
S M() R0 J D 0
-G -Y 7 K' 7 CN 0 . ?- . - .7 $
@ ?- = 7
% $
BG 7 7 5 8' )- 7
C 89 J *G3 @G J 23
=$ H 5 D> 1 C" 1$ -G 1A 7 F =$ 5 .?-
7
: 7 1D 7 C(c") E 0 + - 7 C-G 7 * 0
.7 ' =% ?- = 5 B 1:6 7 N 0 =
C E
=$ -
* = * 0 3 -G TK .7 E
=$ ?
. $( - -G W
0 23 +- ( TKD (` :) 5 7 U*
9 7
G 7
F9 .?- + 7 , : ?$
7 23 5 . + $-

5 8' . + - G 7 ' T0
= B-* 23 +- H M
89 D .10 7 P 3 E- 9 CKG 7 1 '3
3A 7V C*G3
9 E 0 CB
E- =$ '0 1
& 7 0 % C 9 ?
,
B ' (] : 5 7 U* ) E 0 7 V .F =$ 5D U*
' =$ 7 % =% H[ 7 + .K K63 7 7H 7 &) G3 7% C0
@ =$ J "e . D 0 J E 0 =% H[ 7 C+-

< &
5 7 U* C-G - Q E 0 U F .) M E 5) C?+ B
c
' '< J ' .N 0 W+% -* < B-* P 3, 23 5 .(#f) (e :)
J <
?
, .B
5 ! - 5 )- . 7 5*G J
% C 0
, 1 W M 7 W E63 7 CN 0 K3 % E
7 J - ' K+
.F K0 * G &) 3 &
N 0 5)
(` :) 5
""# J "O . G -G 7 0 X
E- ?
K$
J "]) M
<( + C1 R T"Ò C "]f J "O : (
.(""#
(e :) 5
-G - W
E 0
.F , H <(% : (
0-* $ C )- 56Y
. =$ . -
G3 C"`] "Ò $ 7
.(#) " " J [
E - 7$ 1A E - 7$ % C0 23 5
N< NG3 0
563 . 5 X 1 )- + 9 (
"]" $ 7 0 R0 . <9 . ?- C-G 0 E
)-
P .7 . ?- = F C
3 0
NG3 0)
."`c
+ . 7$ -G &) =% " " 7$ F M 0
5 76$%
5 7 K$ 7% 5 .7 @ ?- = B N 0 = 0 1 1D 7 C(#O)
. K0) C5 + & X . 7 1' 3 ?
% C
CX 7$ &)
2 1 + 0
0 0
C )- . *G3 9 . 0
,
5 X ? $ CU A ?0 P
?- 7 1 % C) ' F 7 1 .-
. 0
@+ 50
7 !0 C
=% ?- = 5 CK K Y D -G ( 0 -G E
Y
7 3, 70 7 H6 B .)- 13
) 7 P 3 W =% 5
7 .(#c) -G 0
WG =%

89 B C"`c 1$ = , -G ( 0 'H
$
F

, N 0 @ ) .F 7 D WG ' K0) 7 0
, 7 19, ,
C& NG3 3 -G 7 0
0 C-G 7$ 1 !0 C7
2 J 9 B-
1 'V C 0
0 . + . 1S . 0
, . B)
K
KH J . 5 , J F , H * "eO 1$ .-
=$ H 7 J -
5 7 U* . 0
, 1 - 2 9 (A C'<*$, X b(
NG3 0
0 C23 5 ' + X 7 - 1H0 7V C(` :)
#
9 ? =% J E 0 7 K J - W

9 ( . , 2 ' K H CX
.5) 7 E 0 =$ 9 7 $ C- 2
CU A 2 7$ 0
0 3 + C"e 1$ ' , N0 0)
B* F , H G . 0
1 9 K 'A C( 0
1H 3
= P9 S =$
1H 9 5H .( 0 =% . +G)
E
0
, C-+
C )- N<G =$ =*) M , CE 0 =$ +0 * a C ) 0 Y
0 0 .X ( -3 B N 0 = 7
: =+
B* 9 ( C(##) )- N< 7 K K ) F . 9 0

.W
=% $ + E 0 C ' HG =$ . + S ' C
K+D K- - +0 :+ =$ . (% 7A & 0 7 Y 5 =$
.(#) -G @ )6$ C , 3

$
5+ 13 -G ( E0 C3 -G 7 N 0 ' ? 7
J D 0 ? 5) J -G 50 1H0 7 & 0 7 .-G
563 .-G + =$ ?- 7 1$ ' B( $ :D )G ? C-G 5 +
CB( $ ) NG3 K (" : 5 7 U* ) 'H !0 8
3
C, 0 S C&G3 0 -G <$ 7 -G + =$ ?- 59 ? )
J 23 +- 7 -G ( . . 7V .1A $ 7 & 3
.-+ 13 -G =$ J
3
(" :) 5
$ X 3 1
.1 R M
+ "` F : (
-G 7 ( ' ) - G C3 N0 = -G ( 0
7 C'<$ N< 13 -G & ( E ' . ' : * =$ C
$-
C--3 89 7 D &) F 0 .(#]) &63 D J J --3 89 7
:) 5 P .(#`) ( &' , $ 7 9 0
0
(f :) 5 -0 .. <9 =$ m( -G
K - K C(f
7 $-
J 13 -G !0 J D K 'H -G 7 ( 7 9 C 3 K

D
7 9 7 2
? 7 .(#e) 13 -G ( ' * 0 + ?
9 C. -3 5D ) X
9 5D 7, C 0
, ?+ 1 7 7 7 -G $( 5
.K*G
K ?- ++
(f :) 5
0
0 7 -G (
"e" J "] . G 7$
.""# F I <( . : (

(. 2.' #3

.N 0 A
E0 CW * ( ED $( 59 7 C -p K+. ( 5 $ T?- V K +

, N 0 1 ' T70[ , '
0 5 0 E0 9 'D CE
7$ 0 ) C7- 7 "M" X 3 7
5 7- 7 $ C
' P 3, :, .7- 7 7
.1$ @ ' -
G0* C' - 5) CU( N 0
7 .D 563 ' 5) J

3 563 J - 7 N 0

5 -G - 7 % cc,c (7

, 7 ( 7 9 $) 23 5 ) "`f "] $
%## (F H 7; 1'D ) 7

, 7 ( 1) + "e" J "eO . G .$ S
!G E+ 50 (7 M) . 89 5 7 & 0 .- 89 7
- 0 P
7 C

, N 0 7 D 1 7 $-
C
563 &9,
B-
1 CD 563 &9, 89 G3 .(#") K
-G . =$ . -
CK
0 P
NG3 J

, N 0 E0
i % J ( + L - 7 5
.E
=$ . -
C-
J 7 :>' .1 7 3 7 '' 6 E3 1
23 +- 7
1D 7 C.> - 56% G 7 D =$ 0
=$ H J 7- 7 19 $
-G 1 @ ) 1' C X% ' D
-G P
7 73 7 ( .8 - 5 7 -G 1' 3 =% 5 ( (
5 7 1 C

, N 0 1D 7 C0G 'G 1S 23 +- X 3 - -
M 0
HG = C. -
7 )
5 89 -* '% 1 . 7 23
7 5) 23 5 5) 7 & ( 9 5D .-G - ?( 7 9 S @ G

- =% 5 ( 7 -G .7 $ . E - 7$ C. +- N 0
3 73 S 7 $ . 89 D J & NG3 J 3 -G
.
3
.-G - =% 5 ( =$ + 89 N G 9 C

3 563
& C7 % APQ 5D J + 89 B : 7 $ 0 N0 3 )
7$ 13 -G 1D 7 .(f) G : 89 7 J 9 S E 0 G
7 0 E
=% 3 C+
@0 9 .() 23 +- X 3
=$ 5 ( 7 89 0[ + C G
9 7
% 0 0 L , '
7 U*
563 N 0 &0* 7$ F G
.(O) P 3 7 =% 9 C23
. X 3 X 7 %ff F D P 7 & 0 .( :) 5
.%ef =%
89 *G3 "]" 1$ 5 C"f 1$ $
]
( :) 5

$ X 3 X
"]" J "f . G 7$
?
K$
."Ò 7 : (
$
C(c) "]e "]` $ 7 . G " " 7$ 76$% 0
5 D
G) <$ .. . J 23 +- X 3 J . + - $ ' 1
5+ 0 . E- =% @ $ C0 5 23 5 . + .
@ 1V ? , +S J "`] "Ò $ 7 J =% 23 0
7 7 1 C- .
A 9 F <
B* 7 % CK 'G K B- 9 7 .,
+ - . . , 7$ 2 ) . 5 3 U
[ 7 F 5 +
C7 =% 5

, N 0 = 5 1D 7 .(` :) 5 7 U* CP 3 E-
7 C . + . @ - 2 U( .(#) 7 =% ?- = 5 ?$

HG (1$ @ F , H ) 23 5 .X ( '

=$ 7 @$
L
N C *, '
G Ea &
J 7 3 56% & E G M J 0

.() N , 7- -G ' 3 =% 5 ( -G
X%
Y ""c 1$ . K 3A 3 -G - q3A 7
=$
89 +- .K$ Of,` J + . -Y J 23 +- X 3 7 J -
5 7 ee 2 7 7 23 7 C D
=$ ) 1$ N B C23 +-
:D
C Y =$ 5< K 3> 'H C""# 1$ K 5 7 " =% X 5( ) .K
7$ ' 3 - F =0
+- 5 + ( C 0
0
7 . CE 0 7$ +0 B 0 @ 9 U* 7 5 7 C. -
7
> E0 -G $( 59 =$ 3 DA D .. $
'% 7 -G
+- 5 7 7 .9
5 B
.+0 A
89 C0 -G
) .(]) " " 1 'G - C 1 'G - '
-G
2< 7$ G

J 0 X 3
$ - J : 7 3 7 N0 P
.E
, 5 3 b3 .
&
5 23 5 + . 0
, 3 -G ( @ ) M E

5
=0 .(`) 0
, K'
% '
C
563 - 5 N G 7
1$ / 5 , 7 0
, B $ 9 CF , H
C23 5 5D
`
% C- 2 ') '% 1 E - 7$ -G 0

7 $-
.(e) "`c
9 23 5 "e] J "f . G .F , H :*$ 7 9 S B 9
9 E
7 0 Cb( -+ 1 ( 9 + "e] 1$ . 0
,
P M =% 7 7 C7 1+ 5 89 L C(O :) 5 U* . 0
,
.(") F 1+ B-

563 7 0
, 3 1'
% ' 7 C- N 0 0G ; =$ 23 5 -
+
?- N 0 7, CM 9 0
, 0) 7 -G $( n 7 .0) =$ 9 DA
B 7 & 0 . 0
, 0) B 7 5 C'*G3 0
, WG B 5 7
+$ =% K

0 J D 0
563 J '3
)- 7 P 3 W =% 5
7 -p K+- C )- WG =$ @
G , E- ., =% BG
0
, 7A
. 8 5Q 9 0
, 0)
=$
2< ' CE
, 0) =$ DA
< 23 5 7
7 7 7 23 +- 7 CA-3 1 ? ( =$ :
C7 '
F .3 E
0)
9$ 7 b+ C: 7

3 7 -G '
5 $ 9 C. +
S +-
7 + ( : 89 7% 5 .b3 @ 23 +- -G =$ C $
-G =$
.(]f) < & 3 7

'- 7
.5 F 73
(A C0 . * 0 =+ < : =% . H Y )
J ? 7$ 0< J ? 0 8 9 0 .'
5 5 + 1 =+
.23 +-
(O :) 5
-G 0
, 3 5

.""# 1 R : (
'4
C)- 0 E
-G . ( 0 5 @ ) M
< E
* 0

W C& *G3 )- 7 . ) % CN 0 =$ 9 D ."# 1$
0 -G 5 0 F . - $ 63 9 $ C)- 7 9 6 10
7$ G
7 9 7 .-G . 0
$( 59 =$ DA
< K
7 . . + - C! 7 0
I J 7 J ' .

N)
) 'V C-G '- =% 5 ( 7 B 5 89 ) $ CP 3, 7
.<
0 ( . $ 0 M , C?
E+ 7 3; 7 1 ( G
e
M RQ'

-G . ( 7, C"'$ . -
0( C 0
, 1 U " @
.-G 7 23 5 - @0
10 : C)- 7 ( 9 23 -G 7 ) 7 D )
7 .K K 23 -G =$ ?- . 50 9 C(]) 5 (3 C-G 7 .

.U( S 9 7A J "# 1$ J $( 3 -G @0 M n
: % 3 7'
1) C)- 7 W 'H D C. -3 E3 9 7
.E
=$ . -

.0 '(
$( $-4 !
$ (. 5
7 79

1+ C0 13 -G E
'$
() !
I 5(G 9 N 0
P + 89 7
.-
(+ P E
E<+ 5

, P + =$ 5 ,
K* +
5 C
> P + 5) =% 'H ) J 13 -G 0 E

D> J
9 * 0
% .. ?
:D E
=$ -

$
U( 0 -G E
B* 7 2
&
C 0
I 5, () *) . - E

.0 =% C $ K
E
' 7 $ =$ > 7 ? C() !
, ) =% E - 7 5)
7 J 5(G 9 J @63 7 5 M CN 0 E
9 8' .-G 0
9 5 -
563 $ 70 93A
% C5(G 8' N 0 7 .K K -%
. 89 7 5
C5(G
G ' 5+ E- 7 C* . $ !3 0
.<
' 7
.=(), =% ')- 0 X G ' E- C' NG3 ) X
C(7-) 7' 7 19 *G3 G 7 7
!3 7 ? + 5)
M C13 -G 19 0 G 7 U( 1D .1' K K 5D , 9 7 1
=% *G3 G TK .7
< 7$ 7 K0 F 7 CK 1'% 7
B - -G @ -Y M 0
P
7 . . M , C. <$
X G NG3 M + 1+ TKD . 0 U([ M 0
P
7 C&
"
9 .1'% 7 J 0 G J 7 5H

C760 79 + - .G $ E-
C?
E
7 '( <
3 =% M> ' C*G3 G P 7 5D ,
. -3 B- 9 C 7 ' : =$ ' ) &0* 5
.23 +-
C*G3 G -G 2 . *0 ?
B* 9 7%
) .0 P =$ D '$ 1 ) J
% J E
b( B . 3, '
P =$ <9 '0 5 7 7 CE
7 +G ?( .0
M 7V @
5' 19 9 CR9 B* =% M> 7 7 7 3 6 7V 1D 7 . (+
.-G E
,
G TK .63 7 ' 1S CN0 '*0 - $ * 0 5 5(G 9
. - ?- N 0 7 7% % .0 13 -G E
5D 5 =% K ( M 10 1H
S :*$, 5 7 K6 7 7 .. ? &) '0* 1 0 1 C-G
N 0 9 1' 7 1S C13 -G % 7$ + , 1 CF , H :*$,
S :*$, 5 7V @ ) ..<G H$
+
N 0
5 7% C'9 7 K D + ) J ?- 7A J M() 7 0 H :*$,

=$ $
CE
!
7$ 0
7 @D C
> 89 . -
7% ..
=$ 7 5*, 7 .-G 0 E
5 1+ C<6 S + E -

< =$ J .
. Q( J
< Y E- 7 . 0) -,
. M() 7 0 H =% F H =% '< 7$ H NY C10 M()
E0 C 3 ' + =% 9 .5 ?
5' A
' D W *
7 M
B 5' F' .@9 + ) 7 7% CE
!
5 13
5'
E
1' G 96 C?-
-, 7$ + * K* F9 C?- N 0
N 0 + @* G M
B*3 -G E
.13 -G . 0
) 7V - 9 ."
" * $ D ( ) 13 -G E
7 7 C<'
=$ E
!
, 9 D 0 C13 -G 5 + E6S% ( --3 $ 5
.? + P
+ + - .13 -G 0 . !
A E0 Y 9 D W *
() ) C - Y* C Y K 9 C13 -G 0 E
5
() 6 7 $ 'H $ .5, - 5, . ()

B* =$

CY -G 5 &3 J -3 5 J 7, N0

-G . ( 5 @ 10 M F
7
.5 89 3 5 I A
. () -G

+0 + () 2< 7 .) )
i % @ 10 0 1 C)

-+ ! C
B* @$ +$ D ( J 5 J 5,
Of
+ 5 CF =% *% .P 3, . ( 5 () K* 5 C5 F ()
5 (3 C )- . &'
P .0 0) --3 1 E<$ 3
.Y -G W-) D
b3 W-+ U

7$6 &3 0- C; E
, 9 (3 5(G 9 @) M B W *
5 7% 5 CE
!
) 7 ; E
, 0
5 + 7 7
B* .+- F
.7$ 7 5 7 .- )6$ F9 7 1 % CG3 B
50 ; 5 0G
:
J 0G E
, 7 1H0 CM 9H 7$ 7 U( + 1
C3 -, 7 +- E3 9 C; E
, 7 J K 1 7 1 7
.0 E
!
7 @ K 0 K: (
6 5. % 5.
K0- K C

, B b G + K0 C10 @ 13 -G X% - -
$ .$ 9 ' 0 1 J F , ( F , X% 5D J
> 19G 7 .K+

1 'G 7 J ' ) 7$ . J K 5 7 7 D 2 F , $ C
. C1 .H 3

9, N0 =H "E
F , ("
5 :*$, 5 2 C(E 0 0
) K 5 76 c J O, F I )-
0 W-+ M 0 =$ =Y-

0 0 1 .

@9 + 1 'G 9 7V C')1
a 0 1 @ +0 5 C

- S U( E
b( 7% 5 .7 '
:
C 5 7 B ?
, 9 E
b( 7A "N G" 0 1 .

5<

PY

563 7
i % '
1 () A
8' C 1 F , H :*$
=$
$ $ 563 7 % C+Y E
, )6$ ' 7 $ CM
.5 N0 ++ + P 5 - N 0 563 7 C5 (,
?
, C. 3,
E
7 '( 7 C' 3 F , 53 7 C5 N0 $-

K)
:+ K K9 1' C6 F =$ 5D 3 .0- ')
A ' E0
5 +$

5 0 + =$ -S J

89 B J 5 0 8' .' 0 Y 10 Y + .' G( 16 F , H 19 !G 1' 0 1 C7 G

0(
Y K C 0
0
C23 5 : 7 6 H ' 7 .F , H @0
.* B ,
563 E
7 '( . E0
?+ $ , CF , H :*$ ' C-G 5 7 D U

7 F < . < =$ K* E- 5 C?
6 =$ 9 E- .X 3

7 ' 7$ +0 B C 5 76 c =% '% 6 B
C. . '%
B b( 7 7 .5 7 ,# 7 K 5 7 O =% 'V 5(
O

563 7 '0 50 + + - C5 89 X ) =$ 1' DA F , H
. 0
, NG3 =% M>
$ 2< A 7 7 5 C0 7 7 J F , H 53 P J
0 5D C'(( K . + N<G HG F , 5 N0 7

.@ 9 5D N 7 5 89 ( 7 C. 0 =% C 0

)60 C* +
563 Y 7 ' CN 0 E0 P 3 5<
F9
&3 @ 1 + M Y 7$ G
9 .F , :*$, S :*$, 5 7
Y 9 C-G 0
D> N $ Y 19 7A 10 B .13 -G 79 7 19 $ C7
J @ b+ J N 0 % =% &* -G 7 5 3 7 F =$ : .' N 0
&63 7% 5 + 7 9 .@ -G

, E 7 D C-G 0
=$ -Y* 7 K 5
1' 7 C@ 9 @ ! C5 7 ]e,# 5 7 ]e, 7 C 1 0 X
.5 cff,fff 9 ) . 5D C ) "K Y" F9 7
J =% J E

C5 -G X% E- 7 E- 9 7
.-+ 89 ( :O) 5 7 .* +
-G 0
=$ DA E- 7
X% . D + ( C* B ,
563 H F , X% D B
. () Y =$ D 1D 7 C- X 1 9 CE

5
P C5, . () 0
, =$ DA F , H b+ 9 .-G 0
5,
5 0 7 9 S E
!
, 9 B* ) .() 5, . () -G E
!
A 1$ =%
.19 . >
- 9 C. - 13 -G (
U( F , S F , -% 7 %
X - 5 C Y E- =% 10 1
+ 9 0) ) D, 2' 7% h , ' <6 D,
$ 7 $ F9 .N0 '*0 E- 7 CE- 89 7 +- 5 53 .
- C13 -G $ C6) E - C ( - CX - 5D C7
3> 7 ?
5 ' C +- . $ B $ 89 : * =$ . $ +0 C?-
+- ( 7 %` 7 DA CD $ -G ' ( 1
E- 89 1H0 .(O:O)
N -G 7 23 -G 7 %e 7 D C( 7 3 M) &G3 13 7 9 -

(c :O) 5 7 .n ... &G3 -G ? S 5 -G 7 %eO 7 ? + C( M)
.13 -G ( E-
( :O) 5
13 -G 7 5 +- F I M ' X
E

( (
.ff = "" /D 7 > :H6
OO
C3 X 1) =$ > 0 C"" / J "" /D 7 : (
."! " 7 .
0) C(PIW) !% 1 7 . 3A
(O:O) 5
-G =$ .0 E-
E-
M' - E 5 .

-, - ? S 5 .O
M' - E ? .c

-, - ? S ? .#
? S 5 .
-
N .]
+ ? S .`
) /+
5 .e
23 +- ."
+ E
.f

?
.
M' - 5
.O

E ?
.c

.#
(c :O) 5
""# C13 -G ( $
? S 5

J B) 7 C'0 E-
13 -G 7 0 W 7% F9
G .) 1
+ 9 B ?
-, N0 Y 7 J + 0 !3
? S &G3 13 X% BG
CGG3 5<
X% &
5
C5+D 13 Y 5H
C23 &G3 13 X% . . B) 1S .+
.5+D 13 7 5 7 X% F =$ F
23 +- 6 7 K6 7
?- 1 9 D> 9 C $ 7 G3 - E- 89

+- 5 $ +0 (# :O) 5 b3 .13 -G 7 G3 =$
B-
C
-, - ? S 5 . Y 5
G .(O)
Oc
7 5* C =$ : D, K 5+D, 3 B 50 7 . - 50
5 +- 50 .E

+ ? S
? 50
=0 C$ 7
=$ ' ) 7 5* % =$ ' + 7V M' -
.N &G3 13 =$ ?- .
9 $ 0- CN 0 9 ( 13 $ %
=$ Y - V 1D 7 .0 . - M 9 70 79 W 7V C?-
7 19 D .F 0 . - Y &
C0 1H 13 -G $
7 .' % NG3 . * @0 C.
+- X WG
=$ 7G) C+- =% ( NG3 C13 -G . 1 . 7V 9
.P 3, E- - =$ C+- 89 @ M 13 -G $
(# :O) 5
""# C10 )- $
.. 5$ .! 1 : (
< =+
C % =$ ' ) 7
10 5 50
B
7 C5D 5
=0 .<' ?- 59 $ +0 b (3 ' )% 63
+- % =$ . + 7 J + B
!3
563 J 5
N +- K !0 C$ 7
=$ . + 7 D CM' -

N 0 $ M J 5) 7 9 7 70 W 7V C
.
-, -
) &G3 -G W =$ ?- . @0
J $ +0 13 -G 7
.( :O 5 U*
( :O) 5
<+ 5 P ?- - Y C13 N $ - Y
N 13 13 7 7
.. 5$ .! 1 : (
D>
P 3, 5 0 7 $ F9 C $ +0 13 -G 0- =$ . 6$
5
H < + 7 .+ +
563 -G 0 . - =$
?- 8 D> C9 S 7 E- N0 . + . 1 CK' K+<$
E-
J <' =$ ?- 59 7V F .5+
13 -G =$
M C13 -G 7 M0 5 -3 $ Y @, CK' K 0 J B

. 50 53
O#
."
.E
3 70*3 C?- N 0 5' 5 7D 7 F9
5' 1 5 - D C@ 13 -G E

E0 9
. <( 7 D !
, 9 F 7 CM
B

N0 E
F
1' 5 7 9, . A
"
" A
0
9 CD @ X =% J * +
563 J F , H 8 5D CX
B* D %

: ' ?
F , H P 7 ) .5) 7 @$ D
9 .M
B !
=$ ?- G F , X% 50 ' 5 '
=$ .
X - 0( = CF , 2' . -3 ' 6 =% @

N0 B
.(c) 0
P
=$ HG C?- K0 K9 M
-, 7 =$ . + 10 J 1 @ K( J K( ' 6
K
K- 'H <' ?- 7 ) .(13 -G =$ =$) ?-

* 13 -G E
, 50 ( 1D 7 C@ > 5'
K*
?- DA M -G =$ ?- + 0 1 .-G E
"
"
7 C 89 =$ ?- . 7 + 89 :
C13 -G =$
.B ?- NG3
C1$ 5 7 D B 563 <' ?- NG3 < 5D 5
=$
0 1 + 5 7V F 1S .K 5 7 c, O,` 7 L
F CX N< 73 1 + C $
% C1 ' '$ &)
7 9 .<' ?- BG $
7 +6 . G X . =% -*
J -G =$ ?- NG3 !G 13 -G =$ ?- NG3
3 .B D 70 !G BG @ J 10 7 D B
7 C- 9 5D 3 13 -G =$ ?- 7V CK
K- -G =$ ?-
.-+ 89 (] :O) 5
(] :O) 5
<' ?- M
B Y
50 5$ M
B Y 5+
0 E
0" 7 ( M ' + 9 C"0 -G E
" + : (
."! 1
J 1$ 5 7 D B 563 J F , H 7 7 (] :O) 5 =% H %
9 ( =$ B- 9 !0 C0G @) 7 5)A 13 -G =$ 0 ?- +
O
5 7 B B 7$ ' KY + -0 7 .13 '-G 7 ? - +
&( (G 60 * 0
% C<-3
89 5D 7 7 B-
.1$
J
G 9 .D X

G : 5) 9: % F , H $ C

C-G 0
A > 3 S - X' =% C. 3,
F , : J =%
.-G =$
?- &0* B 13 -G 0
, . P ) 7 0
:(#) 7 '9 b3 7 C 1 + 5 F

G . D 5 $ F9
C
+0 . B C
< -G E
,
E
, ' . b G 7 G
7 <+ 5 L 9
' U R 9 7 d: S% D U R9 ' U % C;

) -G E

6A ?
F .
. -+ ) 7D Cd: 7 7 7D B . D 6A
1
7$ '% J K+ J $ % C <+ 7V (KG(
73 C5+ ?- 1
:D 50 5Y
&
C
F KG0* U R 9 = C1<6 ) '

.)
<+ 5 50 C 7D B 5A K + C73 & NG3
<$ 5* J -G 7 3 . 563 7 J
K ( 7 -G =$ ?-
W 7
C7
=$ ?- 7 $ . 89 7 7 3 Y
J 13 -G =$ ?-
D K* 0 9 J K
KD -G

7 K. 5) 13 -G 7 3
(
.(` :O 5 H) -G 7 3
(` :O) 5
-G 7 3 M
B Y
13 -G 7 3 M
B Y 5+
E
0 3" 7 ( M ' + 9 C"0 -G E
" + : (
."! 1 0
50 @0 M - 9 C-G 0 E
5 E0 1' 3 $ D
U A N G M - 9 9 .' (3 ( 2 ' X 5 +

5' - 9 1 1$ U( 9 .0 E- P 13 -G =$ ?-
+- 13 -G =$ .$ ?- C5D 5
=0 .9 ?
K
O]
7 50 ' $ C / / 7 M ' 7

-, N
7
/ 5 M ' 563 .'Y 5 ( 2
?- ( NG3 @$ 2 9 CD . 50 EY / 5 ,
.(e :O 5 H) +- 89 7 13 -G =$
(e :O) 5
M' -

-, N 13 -G (
() N 0 7 5) 13 -G =$ ?-)
E
0 3" 7 ( M ' + 9 C"0 -G E
" + : (
."! 1 0
M' -
+- 13 -G =$ ?- ( 7 @% .
.' 7 7 K$ E3 M , C
-, N 7$ K*G3 K$G U A
/7 ' K K$G
-, N 13 -G =$ ?- &( BG
/5 7 . G , !0 1D CM' -
+- NG3 @V C
. / =%
? ) 7 ?) M '0* 5

C
--3 M B EG 89 5D
H :*$, S :*$, 5 CF , :*$, S :*$, 5
C0 E- -G 0
8 =$ K+$ K DA D> 9 . M() 7 0
N0 J =% J
G CE- 7 13 -G
0
, =% 9 DA
9 (" :O) 5 U* .* +
563 0* 0
-,
'
WG C1$ 5 7 B B 563 -G 0
"
S"
.!-
S /? = /7 7 . G M C&(
(" :O) 5
-
!
? [$ 13 +
0
,
(5
0
)
.! 1 0 E
0 3 : (
) ' F 'H ?
C1H 9 "@ " 1$ 5 G3 , ?

7

0) C5D 5
=$ C""# 1$ G .9 ?
C
WG =$ $
C7 9, ? -G 5$ ? *% 5D C,
P 3

0) "" 1$ .K0) 7 M = B 5( 0

' C j - N C23 Y + 5D C, 7
. ($, 7 0 . N 0 C? * 5 -G 5$
O`
8 !$ =% , 89 C . 7 3 NG3 . B
.!-
S /? ' B- 0
,
N +- 13 -G 7 ( 7 )60 (f :O) 5 7
J E
U B) 7 196 D 7 .-
!
13 0
7 C
-,
B) 7 & 0 7 .) M 0
=$ 7 D> J 5+
B) ?-
=% ) ' 5; B +G( M> @
G ) .0- E
-
5 V .5+
?- & H 9 563 7 C 0
, DA
7 ' @ =% ?- 5 ( 5) 13 -G 7 ' : <+
=% 13 -G =$ ?- ( 5 ( B 0
, WG =% F M> 7 7 CD6D
( NG3 @$ 1 0
, NG3 7V @ ) . ' D6D 563 @

, 5 0 0
> 89 7 9 . = =% 13 -G =$ -
. G 7 . M 0
, 5 0 19 7 0a C'0
(f :O) 5
13 -G 7 (

-, N +-
(-
!
? S 13 0
A)
.! 1 0 E
0 3 : (
. #
C7* 7+0 =$ C- () 7 ' W-) 7 K )60 Y
E<+ * K( K 3 K$-) -G W-) 0 1 % .-G 5 1H0 F
B =$ 9 N G () + ( 7 0 C () - Y* B)
8'

=% 7 ' W-) 5 3 .=* ) M 7 D C

.-G 0 E
'- 0 '6 J -G . ( J 5
+ .? ) '$ ' -G . ( 5 1H0 P 0 1
G
C* . $ !3
K K*G3 -G 7 ++ '<$ *G3
' N<G 1 5 CD 5< 0
. 7$ ' N< 5 89 1H0
H :*$, 5 5 ( ( NG3 & ( :O) 5 7 C7 1 =%
]f 7 (, 7 % @ K - , 5 (, % M) F ,
G 7 1 7% .""# 1$ K + ]f 7 ? + Y 7 =% C"ef 1$
Oe
89 () '' J ++ % C' 9 7 1 5 (,
. 5 5 , F EG% 1$ 9 J
% $-) - U 1 J ' 5) $ :D
J -G . ( 5 1H0
$ C9 .7 1$ EG 7$ K0 . D B( 7 7 C-G S
5 =$ @ ( 7

- Y* D
6
-G W-) 7
EG CP 3, I b(3 =% -* % .? -
7 $ . * D
7 Y -G W-) 7 =% P 9 CU
=$
1 5 ' C'

< 5 89 1H0 5D C- -G
.@ W-)

1
7 *) -G <0 .) =$ ?- $
7 1H0 B-
1 . 5 -G E
DA =$ ' ) K* G3 C3
1 CE
7 '( . ' =$ C5, . () 0 5
.. 3 - Y* 7$ G
C0 )

G$* 59 7 9 + 7
( :O) 5
F , H :*$, 5 5 ( ( -G ++ <0
.! 1 : (
? Y <

' C-G . ( -
, E 5 R' 1 +
5 1H0 5D J ? Y +( 5 . +0 E - 7$ J E 0 7 % 5D J
0
563 7

''0 1 ' J 0 23 5 7 0 !
'--3 S( $ 7
? Y () U( B* C? Y 7
0
'( 7 D , 7V CEG NG3 ' 7 5 , , 7 % .-G
C8 0
-G X%

=$ * G + (O :O) 5 7 .-G <0 .
Xp * G
7 ' 5 E- C7' 7+ 563 7 F C 7 @D
=% F 0 7$ G ' .E
!
=$ 1D 7 C' N 0 =$ 0

.1'

50 =$

0* CE
!
, 3
+ : 7 5 0

( 7 0 C 5

50 $ ) . 3,
. 3 3
(O :O) 5
-G

(3 E
!
.
?0
10 K+D K- -G . ( -
, E 5 1H0 3 + -
> 89 5D .-G . G- 0 . () $ E<+ 89
O"
+0 563 J +- 5 7 0 5 $

+ C23 +- .<
CD 5< 0

563 CR0 S . 7 8G 19 E3 =$ J *
! ( :O 5 U* ) $ 5
7 .' =% 7 7
: % 7, .G NG3 =% (3 7 C5+
E- K6) K 3
6(V ( 7 1 C' 50 7 -G . ( 5 1H0 G NG3
.9Y 7$ H NY C

> 9 ()

K K Y Y 0 9 7 C

0* =$ 8 ) N G 3 0 7 +
-G . ( 5
J Y 9 ? 7 ?
7 .. 3,

C1 $ . $ 7 ? + CN 0 8 -G '
5
M L 0 9 J
. 5) 7 M H B*3 F , H :*$, 5 7 D6D 7 1S
1S K L 9 5H ) .N 0 7$ L =$ 5 @ 9 C
N< NG3 CD = , 23 5D CP
0

,
.() * +
563 0 )-

-G - 9 CN 0 7$ L =* ?
7 F
( 0 M() 7 0 H :*$, 5 S '3 CP
') &
) ; E
, ' <) b G 9 3 ?
D .= -G
C 5 F6'
* WG ' N 0 7$ =* D ?
.(0 5(G
.n* $ G 59 %# J c . =% M> C13 -G 0
%cf 9 ) . MA
7 7 C3 S 5 '++ )- 0
. 9 CB ?
D
7 & 0 7 .NG3 5 F , :*$, 23 5 )- %
J * . $ !3
563 J 13 -G X% )- .
5 S -+ % E- B
F CF , H :*$, 23 5 . D
.(c :O 5 H) F , :*$, 23
)- . 7 C(c :O) 5 19 . P 3, H6 7
C -G 'G ) J 23 5 S 7 J -G . 3 5 $
7V 9 1S . + 5H 50 - -G 23 5 $ ' )
70 -G W-) W-+ 7 0 C =% . -
-G :+
G ) 0
'H 1A . 7 K* D , 9 .. * K
P -G 's 7 0 J 0 P =$ F 7 7% J KS 5 F
.P 3 E- =% )- . ' D

(c :O) 5
cf
. +

.
C CM C
C C. :2
.! 1 0 X 5) 5$ =$
3 : (

2
1' 3 5$ 7 C13 -G 0 E
1'G 16 -
5
. 1 + .5 9 G3 & -, 0- ; E
, 9 CK

* $ 0- E
, P 0 1 C* +0 563 . . ; E
,
=$ 70- 7 D ! ) . 0
, . + 7 ; E
, ?(
)6$ J ; E
, 1' ' J G3 3 - b G 13

.E
, 7 7$ 79 7 ED
0- E
, 9 J K+D K- 7- E
, 7 7G3 7$ 79
C5, . () 9 P + 19 7 K ' 5$G 7 J ; E
,
E $ 9 E0 K* 5 C13 -G 0
A E0 -+ !
+- M - 7 C5 , 1+ )% E
9 0- E
, 7 1S . 0
,
F % =$ 1 + 0) .) E
, 0 E
, j @ '0
C* -3 B : 9 ; 5 . : B 7 . -3
. -3 89 7 ; N 0 3
D M "N 0 7$ =* " 1'
% @ U( C -3 . % ?
B
b+ ' 7 C<) 2 7 @ $ C; E
, 7 ? =% .G @$
&) C7+ 1$ & H B 50 J J [( ', C 5 E+ 5$
=% : 7 5* + - Nymex ! > E - 7$ : G 7
<+ 50 J F 0 : V 0 7% ..

E- P%

7 K 3 5) C13 -G 7 ' 3 ) 8 K+) 5)
. 5

+ C0 13 -G E
; E
, @ M L * =$ . 6$
.@$ ?Y 5 7 CE+ 5$ B 50
'$ 7 7 ' C0- E

, E<+ =$ ' ; E
0
K* !0 5 C?
!
, !0 ; 0
, 7 9 ?
.M 5
:; 5 0 7$ - 89 .5+
7 E+ !

.?-

7 C5+
M() 7 E+ J
c
.' N 0 . ?

5 0 J O
7$ * > ?S C ) 1 G 5 0 J c
.E

.
< & -I
b<(3 B J #
5 C; E
, 9 D> ', (3 9 . 3, -+ 0
9 0( . , 7 . (+ P =$ E
5 7$ & -, (
0) ) C? D , -
7V $ . E
, ) C(
E
, 7
< 7$6 $ b<(3 19 7 G 7 7 9 . -3
E
, @ 1 + M 7
< $ 89 7 K
3 (3 R)
.;
.13 -G ;
# -%
B 1D 13 -G : ) 0 <+ 5 9G 0 0- +K(+ 5(, 7 0 5 89 .13 -G 0
WG -3 5 'V (@
WG @( 1 % (3 CK K+) ' 5 8 0
WG M 7V C13 -G
0 1'
C 0
, BG $ 13 -G : -* ' .<' 0

.0G 0
, 89
$ (. .
0
WG -3 7$ PA ' C+
$ !$ =$ 5 7 $ 89
0 1D 7 C 0
, NG3 $ 13 B ' C'$ )0 $ 0
F C13 -G
.<) @ 5 0 0

7 '' &
' ((3 5 , C; E
, 563 7 50 7 7 7 K6 7%
.++ 13 -G B 50 -* 7 C 5 B M 7 7 0
8'
7 W @ HG6 J ?
, J 5; -G 7 -3 7$ 7 D .$ 19
0
, 5 $ ' 0
7 1' 1D 7 .P 3 B
M 7 D C D

C. E
1H 7 0 K $ 19 .1'0) 7 HG 5), =$ CWG
. > K< '
cO
&
-G . =$ * 13
C -3 7$ P 3, 9 - 5 ,
' C'% . +G B
K 9 $ 7 .B
((3 5 , 7 D 5;
- 5 , .'* 0 P 3, E , % 5; -G E
13

.-G 0
F M, K
5; -G E
53 7 7 CK6D C
GH
.
$ 5
0
=$ D> 7 7 C13* 0) =$ 9 DA 563 7
7 . M 7 7 J
E
3
J - 5 , 1D 7
.
0
A E0 A 2< E+ C5; 13 -G
#8
-G E
53 .$ C , ' B =$ K $ -
N0 7 ) ' 9 8' , B 7 .& ( 0
;
.P 3 ' D
7$ -3
'4
7 ? C13 -G 0 E
1 ; 1'G 1<6 - 7%
: 0 $
=$ . E- 7 K) 7 ' Y E- =$ J
0- C13 -G $ :9 T0 !
=$ E- 89 3 1 ? .(M+ !

X - C6) E - ( - C<' ?- 59 C 0 .+0
. P C Y $ C@9
F .
- @
3A C 9 M 59 =%
J O
-G 5 + E6S% ) C 50 ) C@ C13 -G E
A E0
.( N Y
7 C ' 0 13 -G - 7 .
7 ++ & $ J c
5 J ( X )- . 5 J D
=$ D> +
J -G 5 1H0 J 3 & H 7A & $ F . 5) 7 3a
.-G '

F C 3 '
=$ K K DA D>
DA 7
3A 7 C0 E
1'G ? - - =$ 70 CK 3 J #
5 0 0) 5$ 50 7 C0- E
, =$ ; E
I
.5 $ .0
cc
0 '(
9
2 : ,"
(. ,' $; % <(
7
=$ 5 89 ?- 7 B) C
; 5 B
M() K

i % ' 7 C-G 7 + '- K+- . H 5+
. . )-
'
G J ) 3 7
=$ J )- 7 . %
. D
G WG C .$) 5D T5 0 7 $ =% 9 0 ..
7 E+ C)- 5+ N 0 6 C)- 5

,
&
C
; 5 P )- 5 ?- N 0 7 7 10 : * .<
5(G 9 !
.
; +- X 3 7 .
)- =$ 9$ B-
89 E 3 7$ ') 0 ) + C
; E
3 )- 1 b G
.E

=
2 : ,"
= >'
. 3
7 U* .. 3,
K0
K() K
; 5 7 D ++
P% %#," =% + 2 % M

( + C ( :c) 5

; 5 M() 7 F 7 19, .""O "ef $ 7
. $
5 0 + 2 % M
50 -
5( C$ 0 u
%`, =% J ' . G J

c#
( :c) 5

; 5 M() 9
" # $ %
/

/

/ !

3,
3,
4,
!, !,!2!
,
&
,
,
,3
!

2
'
,
,!
,

2
&
,
,
,
3
!2

& (
2,3
,
,2

4
!
' )
,4
,
,
4

4
*+,
2,
2,
,3

2

2,4
,
3,!
32
!
!!
-
,
,3
,3

3!
4!
.
,
4,
,
4
4
44
&
/
,
44
!4!

0
3,2
3,4
4,!
!,3
2,
,!
4
22
,
3,
,
,
,
,4

' 5
5
&
.""# F : (

; 5 )- =$ ?- .
-G . ( 23 5 1 + b G
( D
. =% K

; 5 B
M() B
D 563 D
.
; 5 7 $ E+ CK .(""O )
$ 7 @ 5*G C 5 ! > D
7 0 (O :c 5 )
7 .5+
. E
, 7
$ . D ? =% C (3
M() 5 B
CM() G$* =$ $
D
. 7 '
.()6 )- 7 ', C0 P =$
c
(O :c) 5

; 5 ( D

" 6(
" 67

! 8
4 8
3,!
,
&
!,
,
'
,
,
& (
,2
,
*+,
!,
,

,4
2,4
-
4,!
,3
.
!,
,
&
/
2,
,
0
3,4
4,!
$
."" F : (

C
; 5 M() . =$ ( 0
. $
TKD
9 7 D &( G .D 563 ( 8' . . (O :c) 5 U*
?$
7 C .
C0 M() W-
C+0
'*0
; 5 7 ( ) ( CF =% *% .
; 5 (
D
. 9 .5 F 53 P
WG ?- . B CN0
.M() > < E3 =%
; 5 53 P
(

; 5 M()
J 5 0 19 7 7 CE
: *
M() =$ C
D
' =$ . * 0 &
J 5+

7 1' 7 .0 () ' ? =% C$( 5 7 9 S .
?
C
; 5 N0 K 3> 'H C() - Y* =% 9
C5 3 50 S B ?- . 7$ 2 13* 5D T$
- G M()
7 .5+
M
; () =$ + D 0 F 5 .

, G 1$
CBG M() 50 HG 7 7
5 1H0 7 C ) 0
5 53 ) . . C F6'
. C- D
8

.'
;
c]

2 : >'
. ?
4
=$ ?- C5 3 WG M() - . < M() 7 +
A )- 13
. X
WG ?- $( W-+ G ..$ E - )-
D . 7 - =% 5 53 . 7$ 1 K* W-+ .X

7 5 =$ B ) 5 53 . 7V CF 7$ 6* .)- =$ $
7 W , =% J G3 1G ?3 5D J )- + W
)- =$ ?- 9 .0- Y (5m
-G Y 7
) -G 5D )-
3 )- =$ ?- 7 5+ 5 F .M() B 3 W-+
B (3 C3
$ . =% 5 3 WG M> % C
.B
? 5+ )- =$ ?- . 5+ 5

,
B )- F6'
% .)- 7 @6'
G 53 7 )60 ( :c) 5
F6'
7 $ 5 7 .(53 . 7 F =$ ? ) M() .
@ =$ = 53 P
7 % C9 S F6'
7 =$ 7 )- 7 M
7 7 C 5 )- =$ ?- 59 M() 5' E G + .D
7 7V K $ .)- =$ '- 9() &3 50 ' 7
5+
5
5D 'D CM() B )- =$ ?- .
; 5 ' 7 5
.$( 5
( :c) 5
2 7 G ?( 7 )60
)- 7 G F6'

""O J "ef . G
2 7 G ?(
("e` 1$ 0
?
)
F C)- : (
=
2 : . 3
. $ P )- =$ ?- BG CW
M() 7 K)6-
=% BG 1D C(*) -G 7- ,fc ?- u "ef 1$ G .

&% & ) &' >% ' ? (Tonnes oil equivalent (Toe)) %/ ;+' &%" 9.(
(*)
.%/ &
c`
(c :c 1) 5 ) %## 8 ) M
. 50 C""O 1$ -G 7- 7 ,Ò
50 5( % . 5 )- =$ ?- J b (3 @ =$ J
; 5
. 7 H6 .' . G %, =% ( 7 :D
) )- =$ ?- % .
BG J D +$ 7 3, &( 563 J
; 5 )- =$ ?-
.M() W
B B
5
( c :c) 5

; 5 )- =$ ?- 9
# $ %
>% A
B
%
"
/
/

%/ ;+' &% &

/
!
1985
1980

!,
4,
,
32
4
42
&
,
,3
,4
3
3
3
'
,
,4
4,
3
44
!

3,2
3,
,2

3
3!
&
,
,3
2,

& (
2,
,!
,
4
)
,4
,!
3,

4!
!
'
,
,3
,
!
4
*+,
,4
,
,
42
2
!

4,
,
!,
!
!
4
-
,
2,
,
!2
4

.
&
/
0
3,3
3,
4,
,2
,!4
,!2
5

'
,
,2
,4
,!3
!
2
5

&
.? ""# C ""# )- : (

7- 7 `f u %) =$, 9 ""O 1$ , )- =$ 7( ?- 7
1D C(7 ##) 1D .(7 Of]) ' 1D C(7 #]`) 7 ' C(-G
. 50 M
-
7 P 3 ' 7 .(7 #) 7 1D C(7 ")
%
ce
. G %", =% BG + C

; 5 7 =$, 9 )- =$ ?-
5 . 50 7 (%e,e) 1D C(%",c) 6 ' C""O J "ef
7 5+ .. G !G 563 %],` =% 5( % CF K0G P 3,
;
563 % O $ + C' . 5 7 D 5) )- =$ ?- . 50
.' . G
+ 2 % + .
; 5 M() (# :c) 5 U*
7 .""O J "ef . G C%#," 8 ) -
M
50
. $ P%
. G %#, 50 COfff J ""O . G %#, 50 .
7 B)
=$ J b (3 @ =$ J 7( ' 7 B) C
; 5 7 7 .Off J Offf
J Offf . G %` =% 1D COfff J ""O . G %" =% 5( % CM() 50
L M() 50 BG 7 B) CP 3,
; 5 .Off
7 .(Off J Offf . G ) %] J 7 C(Offf J ""O . G ) %` J ] 7
7 C
; 5 K + CK*G3 7 M() =+ 7 B) CP 3
7
3 % C0* H ' 89 7 .K$( 7; 7 %O $ &)
=$ H) 5) 7 8 9 C5+
M() N 0 7 7 ,
.("" C""# M
5D 5
c"
(# :c) 5

; 5 M() =$ $ . H

/
/

/
!
!

!
!,
!,
4,
3,3
4,
!,
&
,
,
,
42
4!
!
'
,3
,
2,
34
!3

,
,
,
,!

3
&
,3
,
2,
3

& (
,
,
2,

3
4
)
2,
,
2,
!!
2

'
2,
,
2,
43
2
32
*+,
2,3
2,
2,
!4
44

,
,
,
3

4
-
,
2,
,
2
2
44
.
&
/
0
3,4
3,
3,
,22
2,3!
3,4
5

'
2,
2,
,
3,!
3,233
,!
5

&
."" : (

% .0
. )- =$
; 5 ?- '
CB) M() ' K
7- ,Ò 7
. $ P% )- =$ , ?- . =% 0)
COff 1$ 7- c,#e =% 1D COfff 1$ 7- O,#O =% C""O 1$ -G
8 ) M
50 -
C(Offf J ""O . G ) %#,# 8 ) M
50 -

'- . 50 7V C
; 5 =%
.(Off J Offf . G ) %c,`

5 $ BG 7 @ B) 7 .WG
&
)- =$
. ( :c) 5 7 .(Off J Offf) %#,c
C(Offf J ""O) %,c
' 7( 7 7 B) % .Off J ""O . G
)- =$ ?- 0)
C1 . 7 )- =$ ?- . '
5 +
. 50 7 + 89 6
% 5 7
#f
( :c) 5

; 5 )- =$ , ?- =$ $ . H
+
M
50 -

.
""O
)- =$ , ?-
<

@
@BBB

-G 7- 7

@
Off
Offf
""
Off/
@BB/
@BB/
@BBB/
#c
,
,O
,e
]f
c"
#]`
7
`#
,c
#,
],c
Oee
e]
#

O
c,e
c,
#,O
f
`
#
7
]`]
c,e
c,O
#,
,ce] ,ff"
`f
7(
]
,O
c,]
`,O
O`
"
2 2 9
]
#,`
#,
,#
O"
"
c
. Y
ce
],"
],f
e,
"`
f"
"

%
]
],]
,e
`,]
e"
f
Oe

ec
],"
],
`,"
e
]
c]
6
#
],c
],c
],#
]
cc
Of
7G
c]f
,e
],f
,
]
c]
Of]
'
,`]f
#,f
c,`
#,#
c,#`] O,#O
,`
W
]
,]`
#,`
#,c
,c
O,e]] ,eeO
,O
W
#" 7 0

."" : (

C.+ ," 2 %
,2
2 %
""# 1$ ' 5 #O,e =%
.> -G - ( :-G
Ce,
. ) X =% -G -
Y @
G 1$ .("" 1 R )

2 -G 7 !G 7 .1 5 7 ],#e X% $
.(] :c 5 ) -G =$ M
; ?- 7 %#f P
-Y
#
(] :c) 5

)- .$)
F6'
CX =% -
CX C-
""# 1) ?

0- Y
1G
-G
7
cOe,
OOf,#
#O,e
-
?0 1) 7
7-
5
#,#
è`,
],#ef
7- 7
7- 7
K 5 7
-G
-G
#,O
c],]
e,
X
=% -

X
]c,c
eè,#
,"`
7- 7
7- 7
K 5 7
-G
-G
F6'

."" 1 R : (

?*
-G 7 . * 0 ' e, X =% -
7 1S
9*+ 1
+ C-

0 9 X =% -
7, C
e, 563
K0 &3 X =% -
7V . X =$ .> -
.> - 7% 5 . Y 96 CX P
.> - 7 5 Y
Y () & H 5H ' 3
7 'A &m 0a J
D + E - 7$ F C. 3 & 7 7 7 J (c) <+
.X & NG3
7 +
' G 7 U 7 !
. ) -G 7V $
7 B) ?- 7 C G @
G X 7 $ % C-G
.0
.
C""# 1$ ' 7- OOf,# =%
. ) > 1G - ( :1G
7 %"f 5D 9 C""# 1$ -G 7- 7 è` =% X % 5(
#O
. 1) I K+- .-G 7- 7 eè,# u M C
1G F6'

1G . 0 9 Cc],] X =% -
Y C""# 1$ X 7$
.-G - ) %

1) 7 cOe, =%
0- Y 7 > - 5( :0- Y
C-G 7- 7 #,# =% 0- Y X% % 5( .""# 1$ ' ?0
7- 7 ]c,c M
M) 0- Y 7
F6'
% ? + 9
0- Y 7 M .#,c X =% -
Y C""# 1$ X% =$ : .(-G
@ C) P
=$ N 0 ?- 7 7 E0 1G 7 ? +

.X =% -
E0 -G 7 ? +
-G 7 9 C. D, 9 1G 7
7% 5 + 7 7 E
K0
.(#) . D, '

& . 2 %
5 )- 50
J - 5 . J )- 7 & 0 7
C7'
=% '+ '3
7 )- =% ' '% 9 - ? % .
v F 5D .'+ ' )- X = 7 0 =% , 9 X
Y 5
v C-G ( Y -G 5 + 1G 1 -
C5<
0- Y 6) CY -G ? - -3 < ' P + - 0-
. E - F
C< ' )- B 5+ - -3
J 7% C = 7 $ )- 53 9
89 5D 'H ) . 3 7 7$ B- G
J )- (3 = P%
)
. ) )- 5 D
(A K 3> 6
D
5-0 ?
.(""# T"" C"" C"" T""
P0[ C D
() K.$ ?( & 3 =% 5 , 1+ 0 8
.< 6 =% K
-
NG3 7, CK K D
1$ 5 )- 5 D
0
: $ K6 - K) D
9 E Y
.X 5 W
=$ K< 0 G
7 D
=$ ?
89 5D . - . 0
i % K<$ E+ 1D 7 C5Y
<$ K> 7 7%
C)- = 5 D
5) =3
5 D
() K 3> 9 & H 89 5H .0( 0 8 D

9 =$ 5D 3 .E- 0
NG3 D
G WG ?
C)- =
#c
C"" T"" ) 5<

0- Y X% $ . ( ?(
9 ) C<- K ?- $ 89 D
7 & 0 7 .(""#
-G 0
U R 9 + 7 C? - D
G WG ?
'()
()

-3 9 C $ 70 3> 7 ? 3 5$ D .*G3 13
&) 7 0- 7 7 F .("" T"" ) ' D
1
.. $ 89 7 D D

5 7 - &'
C)- $ @ P 3 () 5 F9
D
d: S% 5) U( $ 7 W 9 . + '
=$ C 13

C 6 0 Y E0 '' 7 7 6 ?
C,
+ 5D 9 .7, ?S K ! 5 5 ! 7
"" ) 7( F
FG 5+ F 5D .W . -3
.(""
:% 7 T5 , .? 6D 7 = :% =$ D> 7 7 K* < 6
?
8 $ @% H 7 7 J ) F6'
GD J )- E 7 E
1G P + - :% 7 7 - 9 .N , . . : '
$ 5Y G - D ? .1G F6'
5+ F Cb (3 @ =$
B) < K K' 0 ', C + B*3 9 C)-
& 3 89 5D 7V C + B*3 ' P + P - :% 7 % .@
.)- 5 = $ B :% E 0 )
7 )- 5 = :% ?( & 3 ' CD ?
. P + - :% 7 9 9 =$ 5D U* CD W ) 5 -3
N , . WG A
.G3 < 6 G3
5 B*
7 )- +0

B* ' $ 7 ( ) C5D 5
=$
: ' 7 = =H ) P 3 ' .(MITI C ""f)
&
5 ?S < 6 7V $ .(""# % %) * E-
)- 1G % (3 C'% 1 )- ( 3 =$ D>
.< & 3 5 - (
X% . 7 =% M> ) J KG '$ D J G3 5 0 7% 5 + (63
7 7 B) .)- =$ ?- : 7 7 7 ' C
; 5 )-
() +0 C-G K

+0
; 5 )- X% =$
+
< 5 7$ < + ? =% C1G 5<
0- Y 5 =
. )- 1G +0
##
$; <(

9
5 5
0
. ?
F C)-
; . . B) 7
7 W
.3 . K* F9 .
; 5 )- X% =$ + B C?-
X 3 7 )- M ( B K( U C
'% )- =$ ?- N 0
N 0 =$ . H + 7 1
+ 9 5
.7 3 7 ( F C+-
1 5 &' C
5<
0- Y -G 5 ?-
.E
, F =% 5 3 73 7 (
(. %

5 7 f 7 BG C()
-G =$ ?- M() ?

7 B) 7 .(` :c 5 ) ""c 1$ K 5 7 ,c =% C"e 1$
?
$ . B J 5 (3 J
-G =$ ?- .
< ' P + $( - ? =% CB<* 5+ ? 5+ 6
C7 )- () '0 0) K+- .("" T""# T"" )
5 7 Oc, =% COfff 1$ K 7 Of =%
-G =$ ?- 5( 7 B)
.Off 1$ K
' 6
% -G =$ ?- 7 B) 7
J Offf . G % J #
COfff J ""O . G %] J u .

@$ 9 % 7 DA -G =$ ?- BG B) F 7 !0 =$ .Off
' 7( ' 7 B) C-G =$ 5- 0G 1 E0 .7;
C 5 7 #,O =% 0 6D 5 ?- . 5( 7 ..
.Off J ""c . G
#
(` :c) 5

; 5 -G =$ ?- 0)
# $ %
>% A
B
%
"
/!
/

( $ &
)
/
!
!
4

!
!
4
,
,
!,
2,
,
,
3,3
&
3,4
,!
,!
!,
!,!
,2
,
'
4,
4,
,!
,
,
,2
,3
&
3,
,
2,
,
3,!
4,
,
& (
,
3,3
,
,
,2
,
,!
*+,
,
2,3
,
,2
,!
,
,3

3,
,!
,2
,
,3
,4
,!
-
,
,!
,4
,
,
,
,!
.
3,
,
!,3
,
,3
,4
,!
&
/
3,4
,
2,
!,4
,
,4
,
0
3,2
,4
3,
!,
,2
,
,
DEF $
4,4
4,
,
!4,
!,
,4
,

' 5
3,4
,4
,!
3,
,
,2
5
,3
&
.""# T"" : (

5 ) ""c 1$ K 5 7 ],O =% 5( + C
-G X 7
7 5 K 3> '% 1* C'
% 7( 9
-G 5 19 (e :c
$-) , + 5 , ! > 3 5 89 1H0 .. S 1
-G X% 7 .5+
'% 7 B) 7 @ 9 =$ d: .' X
7 B)
; 5 7 D X 7% 5 C. . 7 5 J K% J

.("" . T"" C""c ) 0 P =$ NG3
#]
(e :c) 5

; 5 -G X% 0)
K 5 7
!
!
4

4,4
4,!
!,
!,
& (
,!
,4
,
,4

,2
,
,2
,3
-
,
,
,2
,2
0
,!
,!
,!
,!
#
,3
,4
,
,
+
,
,
,
,
* G
,
,
,
,
DEF $
2,2
2,2
2,!
,
5
."" C""c : (

-G X% 7 7 C13 7$ ?+ ' -G X% 7 5 B*
7%
1$ K 5 7 c,c =% ""c 1$ K 5 7 O," 7 7 B) 7(
7 f,# =% ""c 1$ K 5 7 f,c 7 1 X 7 B) .Off
F CX NG3 7 B) 7 CM .Off 1$ K 5
J -G X% B) WG 7V F .0 P =$ K 7 7%
%
K 5 7 ],] $ &) &
C6)
i % 8
7$ 7 J 5

.Off J Offf . G
&
C?- 0
. ? =% CX . . 89 :%
9 J -G ( 7 B) .(" :c 5 )
; -G . *
5 7 O," =% C""c 1$ K 5 7 e," 7 J X ?- 7 E G +
"" C""c ) Off 1$ K 5 7 ],c =% COff 1$ K
( . 6 ' 7( ' 7 B) 7 .(""#
O =% J ""c
=% J 7( 5( 7 C-G '
7 B) CK
-G ( 9
% .Off 1$ K 5 7
' u 7 B) E
9 C-G M
U( B
5 ' ( NG3
.Off 1$ 5 K 5 7 f,#
#`
(" :c) 5

; 5 -G ( 0)
(K 5 7 ) .
5 7 ) (

(K
Off/Offf Offf/""c ""c/"e Off
Offf
""c
"e
f,O
f,c
,O
,e
,]
,c
#,
7
f,
f,]
,
O,]
O,
,]
f,

f,
f,
f,O
f,e
f,`
f,]
f,#
7
f,e
f,"
f,`
,e
,f
f,
J f,]
7(
f,
f,O
f,O
f,`
f,]
f,
f,O
. Y
f,
f,]
f,
f,#
f,
f,e
f,"

%
f,O
f,
f,
f,
f,c
f,#
f,c

f,c
f,c
f,c
,f
f,e
f,
f,O
6
f,
f,
f,f
f,#
f,c
f,O
f,O
7G
f,#
f,
f,
,]
,O
f,`
f,O
'
f,c
f,c
f,
,c
f,"
f,]
f,
5
P 3
c,#
#,f
#,#
],c
O,"
e,"
#,
W
.""# C""c : (

D "6

- -3 E - 7$ '
M =% Y M 7 0- Y 5+ 7
0- S 5 0- Y ( 1
; E
.5m
1S 5 =$ ?,
7$ K .0 J 7 7 5D J Y .
5 7, F C5

0- Y =$ ?- N 0 0) 0 7V & H 89 : * =$ CY 5
.5+
73 Y b 1+

, , 7 U( C
5

KGH K ) 8 $ C0
. 5
0- Y =$ M
; ?- 7 B)
M
; ?- % 5( ) .(""# T"" C""c ) )- K0
#e
C7- 7 #f @ 7 ?( 7 C""c 1$ 7- 7 #]," =% 5
0- Y =$
'0 0) K+- .(f :c 5 ) 7- 7 O,] 7 C7- 7 #,#
5 89 7 5 . . 5
0- Y =$ ?- '
C)- ()
"c =% 5( 7 COfff 1$ 7- 7 `c J `f ?- % u 7 B) C6D
;
.Off 1$ 7- 7 " J
(f :c) 5
5
0- Y =$ ?- N 0 0)
7 7

(K
7- 7 )
Off
Offf
""c

0)
]f J e
# J c
#f,f
7
?-
Of
f
#,#

O,]
7
" J "c
`c J `f
#],"

O J #e
O
7
]J

7
]O J `
]O

ce J c
J e
> N 0
7
* N 0)
(? -
## J #f
##
ce

5 7
(
e
e
e,"
S 5 7
N 0 7

>
#"
.""# C""c : (

5
0- Y
K--3 K 3> 6 ' 7( 7 5 0* )
7
Ga ' . 1 G
--3 89 % 7; = A 1 7% .("" )
.)- () '0 @0) D 5
0- Y =$ ?-
9*+ 1 C5, - +$ ? J K.$ J 5
0- Y +G( 1
Y =$ ?- N 0 7 +
7
$ .F'
=% '$ )0
+0 'm> & 0 7 C(? - * N 0 M) 5
0-
.+
?- : 5 7 K
7 5) 7 J 5
0- Y =$ ?-
7 U* )
COfff 1$ 7- 7 ]O u 7 B) 5
0- Y 7 > N 0 7 J 7
$ @* M )0 K+ F COff 1$ 7- 7 ]O J ` =% 5( 1D
.(""# T"" ) .> . 5
0- Y
=*+ > N 0 7 5
0- Y =$ ?- 7 E G 7V CE
K0
7$ C<+ $ )- . E - 7$ % N $ @+ 7 ? C +0
1D COfff 1$ 7- 7 J e =% X 5( 7 B) 7 .. $ )% E . J 5
0- Y $ X% 7 .Off 1$ 7- 7 ce J c =%
K 7
. $ X% 7 C(""# ) 7- 76 f 7 DA J 50G
53 . 5
0- Y $ 7 0 --3 1 ) .0 P =$ K *
.( :c) 5 7 .(]) ' 3

:7
) =%
; E
, Y 7 N 0 1
+ 7 C""c 1$ 1) , K+.(7- 76 " u )
X 3 7 N 0 C(7- 7 ce u )
53 7 N 0
+0 K+ J > N 0 7 5
0- Y 7 N 0 +

7
## J #f =% 1D C Offf 1$ 7- 7 ## =% 5( 7 B) J
53
e =% 5( &$* 7 B) 7
X 3 7 > N 0 .Off 1$ 7- 7
0- Y . $ 1H0 7 $ % .Off Offf $ 7 7- 7
7 B-
C?- N 0 7 7 ) F9 7 C
X 3 '--3 1 5

B- 1' C+- X 3 7 5
0- Y 7
; 5 . B)
.7 3 7 (
f
( :c) 5

; E
I
5
0- Y . $
W :
)-
@ W 1

(K
7- 7 )
7
% /
#
(K )
%
5 7 /5
/!
(MLNG-3)
7 3 /5 7 /SK /IPC /5
( ) . S
7 3/5
/7 /1 R
(9) . S

/M
/5 / 5 /QGPC
(Y -)) -)
5 /QGPC
f
(Y 7G ! ) -)

/&% /QGPC
(
/ &%) -)
7 3 /5 / 5 / 0
7$
7 % /2 /9 / 7 %
7
7 3 / 1 R / 7
% /
#

5 /
/ Y
/ !
( )

! /7 /
/ 5
(7 )

7
% /
( 73
)

7 3 / M
/ /7 D
( 73
)

J f
7

(
E ) F

/ GNPC
0- Y

.""# : (

, 5 ?- .
-G . ( 23 5 1 + b G

? %

"6 (. 9 5 +
=% C
)-
?- N 0 &) 5(G 9 7 E
D
7 9 C5
0- Y -G
?- N 0 7 . G B) W

.
; E
=% 53 )- 7 23 )- 7 23 ( ( G U 7
23 5 5 3 7 7% J 7; = J > S 7 Cb 5H 9 5 7
i%
7 23 ( 7% 5 + 0) . 1 80) E+

; E
=%

; $( <9 7V C. .

=% 5
0- Y -G
W E - 7$ F C')
, 23 5 E 3 7 b+ C

N =% -* )
7 W 13
C)- 13
E - 7$ ?- 7 :

D
1H C(`) ' ( B C
0- Y -G X% . C )
9G 7

89 .3 ')
Y -G 3 5
5D) W) 563 7 C()- 13
+ 1 5D) + U< 563 7
=$ ?< * N 5D) @
G E
563 7 C()- F6'
G 6
.( ""f G
) ()-
1'
5 C?
N 0 7* 7A & 3 7 A 1

89 5D
% E
, 89
3 7 7 3 7 C
; E
7 )- K* '
. ' N 0
7 9 C7 3 Y -G ( '3
E ?) ?18 F
=$ $ 7 )- =$ 5 ( 7* 7 )60 5) *G
)
=$ $ 7 . )6$ @% ) .-
, E 7 -G
C)-
9G + F9 .("ee 7
T""# 6) )- =$ 5 ( 7* )-
=$ 5 ( 7* K' 5D C-
, E 7
C)- =$ $ 7
* ' +0
)-

. ) =-$ W- 9 5D .)-
. (API, 1985, 1988; DOC, 1988, 1994; Hogan, 1987)
7* ' 7 7 C-
, E 7 -G =$ $ 7 U* 7
. ( D>
-G % &) 7 !
=$ C.

)- =$ 5 (
.-
, E 7
C &) 7 E+ 0
9 7 .9() =$ . -3
O
M , C 0
, WG N 0 b+ . * @+0 -G % &) 7%
.- + 2 % NG3 ?
% C-G 5 KY K * E
K
K D F C7'
P )- % K(+ : ' 7 b+ ?
8
@ KS M J -G 0
WG 7V CF =% *% .() . =$
WG 7 & 0 ..
5 $ 7 9 =% M> J 7

B C1$ @ 0
, WG =% M> 1D 7 C)- G 7 -G 0

5 N0 =$ D> 7 7 -G 0
WG 7% 5 ..
5 13* 0
.+ - !G -G =$ 0
5+
-G % &) K
-
, E

+
1$ 0

$( -
, E 5 +
1$ - .(API, 1985; DOC, 1988 )
D K
) $( 89 N0 7 = C' 5 89 53 $
7% J E

. 7 ' =% *% .*
.+- 89 +
1$ 7 J . ?
&) 7$ D; 7 &G3 =$ -G M
. )
C * )
6) 73 0 1) ' C5<
7 $ W F C-G
. ) 7 P 3 W =% 5 C)- ( B C(""# 5 T""#
' 7 0 C * ) K 5) -
, E +- 7 )- % &) U(
9, K % D -
, E +- -G . ( 5 ( .. ?
7 $ 7 0 C-G .
. ( 5 7 5 7 () )60
T""# 6 T""c ! ) ."e] 1$ 0
, NG3 ?
-G '<$
.(""# 5
7A J K( (3
5 J $ -G .
5 & 3 ) E- 9 7
=$
8 D F -G 0
NG3 7 .-
, E 5 7 -G 7*
1 . ) W - )- 13
5 C D
()
: * =$ C-
, E 7 -G ' b+ -G .
5 K 5
.(""# 6) )- 7 ' 0
. 7 * ) @'
C.
5 P -G 7* 7A & 3 :' . * 0 F 7
i%
=$ ' ) 7
7$ 5+ 1S C9() KY K * E 7 7 -G &) 7,
@$ 7 K 5) U( -G &) 7 U( . * 9 D 7 &G3
1S J -G 7* 7A & 3 7V ' .5+
0
! @ C*
.
; 5 B- ' C-G .
5 $(
J '(+
c
7A & 3 7V J B) 9 J

; 5
-G =$ $ %
-
, E +- ' ' G 563
C 7 'H ) -G 7*
. +
1$ 7
9
5 ? ?. F
G+ $
; H) ?
7 U( B N 0 7 7 C
Y -G E
=% 23 5 5 3 7%
7 :>9 5 .'0) . 1')
A HG 7 7 C7
) '
G .
5 7% 5 .1')
=% 23 5 5 3 7 1'(
.9() 7' 19 0 7 7 7 K CF 50G
@D 7 7 M DA K0 C& 3 7 7 7 @ 0 1 &3
-G M) '$ ?
P 3 =% E
7 &3 @
G DA 9 .1')
, 23 5 E 3
.7
7 ( 7 5 =$ 8 DA &3 7 7 C()- W 7 9 S Y
Y -G M (
.Y -G E
=$ E 3 F D K N 0

7 ( 7, F .. -3 6 1')

=% 23 5 5 3 5D 7 7 C7
;
( . 7 0- 7 CE
, !G =$ 7
23 5 7 7 ( 7
;
7 .E
7
; 7 ( ?( 7 5+ &
23 5 7 Y -G
7 Y
; 5 @$ : * CY E
. -3 D 23 5 5 3
.5
0- Y 7 ' ( '% . $ : C. D --3
C-G . (
5 1 K -G E
23 5 E 3 5 ) P 3 ' 7
. ?- . ?
-G 7 19 ?* &
J K6 K6$ J 7
; 7 ( 7,
7 13 $ &63 K* F9 ..
5 =% 50G ) -G . ( 5 N0 7% 5
.$ 5+D ?
-+
7 CM
; -G 23 -G
.73 7 ( :6$ !
, 19
; Y -G E
7
7%
5D 7 E
=% 23 5 5 3 7V C9 1'<6$ 7 ( 7 )60 + -
K' 5 + + X% 7 =% 23 5 3 % .7
D K<
.E
8'
B* Y 7 @D C7

E
'H0 9 C1H 7 +
; -G E
7
> 9 .(e) H 5+
') 3 23 5 B-
7 U S 7 C
7 & 0 7 .Y M

< 5D 7
; E
=% 23 5 5 3 7
-G 5D C7
7 $ ' ! -G
; E

#
0 ) E
89 =% 23 5 5 3 .P 0 -G - -G
.'( N0 89
3 7
') 3 % 5 * 0 K* 9 CY -G S )- P 3 E
B- F9
5 7 D <9 . : ' =$ ?- 7 B) 7 .9S '-G 23 5

J Y -G 7 5 5D &
- 9 C("" 9
)
;
23 5 5 3 7V F .)- 6 P 3, ) W B .
J Y
)- W M ( 7 E
=$
7 7 C ) W =$
89 =%
.(") Y -G S P 3,
7 7 =$ ?0( 7 U( C + :Y% M() 5H
U( 7$ 5 D 7 CE
=% 23 5 5 3 7 3
9 23 5 E 3 7$ 7
.E
b( $(
.N 0 7* 7A & 3
& 3 89 7 .5) M 7 . 5) ( N 0 7* 7A & 3 7 KG
7 7 7V CN 0 ) Y -G =$ ?- . B CD . - %
9 B P ) ' 7 &
C')
=% 23 5 5 3 7 3
.3 E 3
=
5& 7)
-6+ % E ?
5 7 -G =$ ) ) J 7; = J
; 5 N G 1
% .' -G E
73 )- M ( D
=$ C23
b+ =% &' C)- =$ 5 ( 7A P .0
--3 G 0*
5 3 + 7$
89 G
.)- ( B
-G =$ $
.(f) K
$ K
-G E
=% ' ( 0 C23 5

; 5 = 7 J & H 5H J 5 S 7
F9 .96 )- E
=% 23 5 5 3 E 0 ) N 'A 7 7 C

E
53 7
; 5 7 D =$ ?0( 7 50 C() H ' K*
9 G 7
.)- ( B Y -G =$ ?- 1 5 7 C)-
9 C"e] 1$ 0 E
-G 0
NG3 B C5) M 7 ( 53
9 . ) 7 W - )- 5 D
() =$ qD
0 &
C5+
3 Y -G 7
; 5 . 7V -

=% C
X )- =$ ?- 9 7
3 % C"0-"
.23 5 )- Y -G ?
7V 1D 7 .10 K0< K U( @$ + B () 7 & 0 7
B 8 7 M C $ () @
M 8 !G F )- E

M 8 !G F )- E
7V 1D 7 .10 0< K U( @$ +
9 .@ 53 7 @$ + B 8 7 M C $ () @
.-G E
,

K 3> E+
1H M 7 + :Y% E - 7$ -G ( =% 7 '
) ("" )(*) ""] ! / ' , F 1 7 K + 7 .-G
7
.("" ) "ec 1$ -G 0

0 .(""# ) ( -G 8 M C-G E
5 3
+ ' .("" ) 9 E
6(% 53% "
1D &) " 1H 7(
)- () '0) 9 0
1H -G < : V )
! > L
E - 7$ C 50 : --3
5 7 $ 5 .(""#
D
) 23 5 N0 7 .() ("" ) , 5 ,
0
D
5D C-G 5
; 5 N0
0
0 7 5 --3 .6 D
C7G
.("" M 9 ) P 3,
; 5 N0 D
7
E
=% 23 5 5 3 . * 1$ 7 + F E
@ 9 5D
G( '$ + % )- E
1+ 7 7 . 5
: % 7 $ =$ C> S b 23 5 ?q 7 5), =$ 7 C$
. 53 5+ 0 '$ + F E

C- & H Y K0 '9 Y + F $ 7 @ 1
7
. 3, ? 1+ .' )- E
5 () P
=$ 10 P
=$ :
K @9 Y )- E

7 D % C( 9 K KD ( )- E

() +
=% &' C ()

8 DA K H CK K Y
.(O) ("" )
.$/ HI
]
(*)
&
J K$( 7; 7 J
; )- E
, 23 5 E 3 A
E0
, :-$% 7
.N 0 7* 7A & 3 7 A ) K DA Y D 7
7 K + N 53 =% @ C)- E
8 !0 7 7 A
8'
5 E 3 7 5 C3* +$ B*
J * a % J + 89 . + F
.
; )- E
23
'4
9 C ?- :
5 B-
7 CY -G 7
; ? * B
&
.. . 89 7
C+- X 3 7
; Y -G &
E
E 3 ' ( J Y -G J 23 5 1 ( G U

5 ) J N 0 7* 7A ' 3 1S J
; $( 7 .
;
7 W - C)- 13
E - 7$ F T')
, 3 E 3 9 7
.Y -G 5 1'0 50 7 7Q B C
Y -G X% C )
1$ -G 0
NG3 K CN 0 7* 7A & 3 . K 3> G3 +
) ? =% C &) D 7 &G3 =$ .
5 . + 7
C"e]
M @ 5 + B U( F =$ . 6$ .W-+ 9 5D
G
; 5 =$ 5'
7 7 7 9 & H 5H .)-
; E
1

89 7 .' )- E
5 3 7 23 5 B

. 'H =% N 0 7* 7A & 3 $ % C5+
13
a )

.)- 0 B* Y ?
CP 3
N 0 7* 7A J
; 5 & 3 b+ 7 9, 7 U( CE
K0
( G 1Y CY -G . ( 23 5 - 9 9 .7 = =% J
7 ( 7 5 $ 9 F 7 0
.
; E
E 3
.7 - 7 5 9 5 7 7

563 7 C
; 5 & 3 ' 1 + 7 J F 6 J 23 5 B-

+
1$ ?
5), =$ J 10 Y -G E
=$ +
:G* 9 '
.5 9 . D
)- .Q ( 5 '$ $ % . 9 ' 563 7 J
`
7 '(
(. "6
I %. $; .

!
+
0- Y X 3
=$ 2< 9 .79, . < . D <

G
59 h+ 1 0 0- Y 59 h-G 23 5 F , H

9 ' 1 h'% NG3 B C' 3* Y - 7 23 5 F , H
h13 -G E
0- Y 5YY ?
0 P 3,
F6'
U( + CY 7 5 =$ $ B 7 $ B-+ F9
C$( 13 . ) 13
C5 89 - N S, Y
)- 0- ( C. . D 0- Y 0 .? 8 X% )- ? =%
$( 7 W-+ 13 . )- C7
8 .:* (3
.

,

* % J F , H X 3 J 0- Y X 3
?
)
5 ? 7
7 ' T7$ =% *, 89 1
+ .H 7 :*$I
DA 9 7 1 7% C-G E
) 3 J H J 0- Y
3
7 0 ( '
G F , 7 'D .0 7
C ( +
E- =$ Y 7 9 56Y
?
. <$ .
3 =% P 9 C'<*$ 7
=$ 'H Y X% DA 7 M .* . ( . 9H .
3 89 7 1 7% CM
T7

TH 7 S Y 7 19 S F , :*$ 7 ' (
9 ' 5 , P
7 1S .1' F , :*$ 7 ' ( O
.9 @$ 5+ D 7V CB
,
U* B CF , X 3 0- Y : 7 F , :*$ DA G 5(G 9 5
() 5 0 K* 5 .5 9
< P + .<
9 19
Y X% 9 T( 9 (3 =$ : * K+ .-G E
Y E 3 =%
.' 7 K <0 ( NG3 =% @ F , 5 ( C5s
0-
$( &63 CY =$ .0 $( M() D, $ G( 5(G N 0
K 3
.5s
0- Y
e
"6 (. ? .

5 3
B* @$ 7
$ H NY ."5+
&H ) " 1
0- Y =$ E-

3 P =$ - ) 9 U( 0- Y 7 F 6 C5+

7% .D 0 ? +$ +0 563 -G - D C* K$ $
5 @0 M CY -G 7 5 ' & H U* G F9 7
. @ 7 B-
9 .'
D ' M C"`" 10 X 1 -G 7 0 X 1 "" 1$ J
' &) 7 C"]" 1$ X 50 * 0
% .-G 0
WG
) K 5 7 ]] =% 5 7 #c 7 BG @ &
C-G 0

1 -G X% . % 7V F 1S .%f M (""# J "]" . G
.' . G 89 P =$ K
%,# @

7 BG % C&0* =$ 50 Y 7 0 X '
G . G 89 563 J
7 M C""# 1$ -G 7- 7 ,e` =% C"]" 1$ -G 7- 7 ef
.K
%c, 50 C %Of Y
.
-G M
X BG + .Xp +- . 7 -G Y P
J
7 ,fOc + Y X% BG C-G 7- 7 ff + . . G
. [ E 9 C-G 7 13
U( "`f 1$ C-G 7 M D 2 0- Y 0 1 J
.K -G 5D @D C)- .
W ( 1 "`" 1$ .' . G F 563 10G - Y E

+
.
Y 5 % .F , :*$ 7 2 -G 7 F , X 3 7 2 Y 7
-G ?
=$
CK6<9 K6YY E
, 5YY C ( 7 -G W 5
=() 7$ %O
J 5 J '% NG3 CB* 9 :?$ H CF ,
CK !0 =$ ' 0- Y .(K 5 7 c, 9 ) '3 @++ P

: B* 9 b3 7 ."`f 1$ &) 7 WG @%
%
.%O
-G 7 F , X% NG3 J
.%f -G ! Y
0G J
7 C-G F , E
7 .
=$ J . G F :D J Y =
J
.. E
, -G ?
7 5 @% 5 .F I 3 E
, 7 0[ '*0
"
=$ K

() CK K ) 0 7 J "`f 1$ = J 0- Y 7 & 0 7
Y - . D G +0 $ () =$ -
C
7 A @ 1H0 . @ @A M D 2 7 % C-G X 3
2
@A C7
0 (3 0
A W 5H @
G 7D S 7% 5 C@ <
X 3

. @ 0
7 + =$ B+ C13* -G Xp 0 C $( Y $( 9
DA
C 0 X 7 %`f .
< F6'

2 9 E

7 C 3; ? =$ .9 . @H0
=% !+ . @ Y $( 7 C0- Y 1' F'

7 % CK 5Y
7 1 'H0 7V CY 7 . 2 7 23 7 1S .
J 5 + 7 0 Y 29 5H 9 .@ () E
1$ ?
@) % 1
U( 7 =% B* F
."# 1$ -
5 16H * J 23 $
.-G X% $ B C7A -3 D Y
2 @% . H Y .H $ DA @ K9 K ) Y U( "]" 1$
% .Y $( . Y D -G 0
WG B .-G XV 7 + M D
!G ' . G .-G
Y 1 ( G . 0
& H A9
-G 0
WG : .5 7 -G X 3
$ C $( 5
C *G3 7 ; 7 X 3
Y % ( 7 .' . E - D
=$ )0 -G 5 0
7 7 C(<
3
<$ 5+ ) K
=
WG 0 7 .! =$ Y . ) 7 B- 0
9 7 .7 M
8

.. $ $( 5D Y X% U( C5 K cf =% -G 0
7, C D F 7 +$ 9 5 C-

8'
-G Y $( 7
7%
7 7 '
F I
9 D G D CP 3 =% +- 7 &3 '
K6<9 K$G '% BG C
Y X% . 1H0 7 & 0 .7 3;
E
=% ' 53 1 <' . 89 1S .(K -G 5 76 e )
89 7% 5 .F I
M 5D 1 CK 'H0 F'
C5<* ) P
G b3 7% % .. S . ( : J

Y ' J <*

7 O, J + J -G ' ( P
=$ H

Y
Y C 9 $ 5H 7 P
9 .0( 0 ( J 5
.F , ( K
50G ( 89 0 F .

]f
=$ DA @

Y 7 1 9 7A J '$ J )
( 5D
Y DA =()A . D F 7 5) @ ++ CF ,
7 .K 5 7 ,] 0 ?, - -3 $ Y ( ? =% C-G
. ' K H . 7$ H NY -G 9 (

7% 5 +
Y P0 -G E
=$ <'
Y $( DA 7V F .0( 0 =%
.?, - -3 $ 5 +

5 M ' J
&63 J F , :*$, S 5 Y X%
-G 5 7 , "
" X BG 0
.F , -G .
X 3 2 Y 7 F , -G '' ++
5 M 9 + 9 CK
E
, @ 7 K: 5 CF , -G 1 F , X 3 2 Y 9 .F ,
:6
7$ 1 9 G
C1$ 5 K 5 Off,fff 7 ? + C 3; 1$ 7
. +0 &( K 5 7 , Y E
7 ( =$
P Y X% 1 WG 7 ' T$ G 7 K$ 8 9 7*
1 $, NG3 9 1H0 .K 5 7 ,# -G =$ ?- NG3
- * NG3 ?
% CY . F 7 1 .. 3, 0
D
. 1H0 : .E
Y ( 7 7 ( U
9 C +
C. . ( X =% -
(+ C50G - B M X
.K6 -
7 . 89 7 C
< < &
B
,] . G F 563 E
=% * 5 +- Y 5 7 TKD
7 J . 3, . G J 89 1H0 : .K -G 5 7
?
C'H 1$ - E
Y 0
WG =% K

F B ..
- K C0 '
. * 5 0 7 P 3 $
.Y X% . $
D 5< 50G '% NG3 + .+0 Y K)
E
0
&( '++ X
=$A K + CK -G 5 7 O,
C-G 7 ' WG =% B* 9 M> 7 H 7 7 .0

1$ 8 = =% X 5( 7 .9 0
WG ?
)- '
1S CK 5 7 , 50 Y X% =% . $ = C"e]
.(Y 0
, , @+ M 1$ A
5) 0 N 0

) Y 0
NG3
. =% F , -G E
@YY A- ) J F , X 3 2 J Y 7V 7;
K <- -G ! Y . C1 $ Y X% . $ :D

]
?+ 1 b) 0

, NG3 : * ? Y 9 ! .(
0
) "e] 1$
. =% @ U 7 M 9 7 CK6<9 K -G 5D Y 7 + .-G 7$
"6 (. ? .
'
J%
9 C
Y 59> @+ 0
B M> -G 0
WG 7 & 0 7
9 ) % C.+0 A
0 89 7 .D Y $( : 7 ,
.' 0 @+
Y X% () 1
.F , X 3 -G X% =$ 0
, DA
:( 9 '% . 7 . 5 $
3 D
K 0 C0 E
=% Y 5+ -G 0
WG U
% T
0[ J
.b G 7
) WG . * 0 -G 0
WG 7, T<
L J
.(Y X 3
$ 563 D 2 3
) 5<

0 -G 7$ ?+ $ 7, T?+ $ -G Y 7 - J
.Y +
5 + & '( ) 5 C@ E Y . -+
C X 5+ K . ?, - -3 13
() 0 T5+ () J
.+0 * 8 -G 7$ . $ )% 7 D 5*
7 5 1$ 1+ 1 % C. D T1$ G< () J
. K * 1$ 9 7 7 .-G NG3 F C@6'
Y X%
.5s
0- Y
Y () Y % =% -G 0
WG P :
0
B .X 3
$ $( Y ) . 0 WG ' .0-
.0 E
, @( C'% Y 5+
-% 7 + 89 WG
.Y 5+ G WG ?
C
=% ?Y 7 9
!G 5+ 7 D =$ 0- Y 7 0 5+ G 7 ( :#) 5 U*
C73
7
7 5 . Y 5+ ) 0 7 'H .5
) 7
. 6) ?, - -3 5+ M
]O
( :# 5 )
-G Y 5+ ) 0
(- . 7 5 5 ,fff 5
)
Y 5+ ) 0
-G
Y
5+

. O =% ]
f =%
]f
?, - -3
f =% #
c =% O
O =% f
6)
M 5+ # u % CY 5+ ) 0 1 WG K* H6
BG . -
?, - -3 5+ O =% BG C. ()

& 7, C. 6) ?, - -3 d:
C0 7 =% Y 5+ 7 -G 0
-G 0
. % CD & =% !+ CK
NG3 )- +0 7
: F C'% Y 5+ 7
&
'V C +
7
.
5+

. 5 5, 0)

( + 5 0
Of
?, - -3
]ff
6)
6 ,Of 9 ) . =% 5 + -G 0

. M> 9
C5
0- Y 7
5 c,fff C?, - -3 $ Y 5+

.7
7 '0
& . D * 1) 1) , 89 C-
9 80 M
0
WG . 1 : ! * 0- CP 3 5 0 0G 5+
C-G E
, K
< K
Y E
( J "`c 1$ 0
J "]" 1$ -G
1$ 5) J
Y ( () + 7 & 0 .F , 5 E
(3
. + 5* =$ 9 J "`c
]c
- -3 ++ G ?

A-3 =% K0 7 ( 89
7
Y ( ""c 1$ 7 .
G 5H C?,
.0( 0 =$ 5 ( ((3 J
5*G CK -G 5 7 ,O =% G0* 0

7 BG J
C5 Troll 5 5+ 7 X 3
Y 7A 5 + 7 5D . 0
, WG
WG 7 J ?, - -3 H9 G 5H J , . + =% K+- m([ 7
K
< K6$ -G 0
WG 7 7
0
H A9 -G 0

. P
=$ Y E

9 .Y ( ) 9 D 50 :<
L
K ($ 0 J 0- Y X 3

$ 563 J 5<
7V -
N0 -0 K + Y $
5 7 & 0 .X () K9
Y .7D S ? =% -G Y N0 CY B ?
a 5<

7 7D 5D C5<
KS .$ 7 -G 7 X 3 M
-G ?( S Y <
G K 5+D, '
5 + N0 5D J 3; '*0 C 7 Y 5 + N0 CK K G
-G Y 7 K K ) -0 J < P Y
.7D '
Y X% U( 7 5 C"]" 1$ P ) D 89

<0 ( <0 7 K9 K: 5D '0 D 89 b63
U( .?-
0
WG K0 9 0
. B 89 9 ) .Y X% 0
.E
+ 5<
7 X 3
C ; 7 b63
E$ . B .-G
Y X 3
$ E
J D (3
5<
+ 7 H6
L 0- Y ( 5<
7 0 2 C() KH K G G J 0-
f,f# 7 L C?0 1) & 5 5 f,ff J f,fO 7
.?0 1) & 5 5 f,f]
]#
(O :#) 5
0- Y X 3
( D 5<
() +
M D 2
3
5<
1
Y $
(?0 1) & / )
(?0 1) & /5 )
K
#c =% f 7
f,fO =% f 7
&G3
,`f =% f,#c 7
f,ff =% f,fO 7
M$
D ,`f
D f,f

X 3
Y . -) Y B 3
5<
9 =$ 5
B-

Y @ 3

7 =$ 5< D C0G @ - 7% 5+ " +" 5+ 7
() =$ D> 5<
89 X 3
7V F .?0 1) & /5 f,f
=$ J 0 & ?
0 J <
) ( 7, CK K DA W
<0 E G C0- Y 7 3
<
) 7 ++ .?0 1) & /
.( , 9 U*
) Y ( <
B( 7 b3
7D 5
= U @ U* 7 .d: D M -+ Y 7$ 5+ J @H0 J M < Y
) -0 Y E -
50 7% 5 .0 ; 7 P 3, 3
) %
C(%) ?0 1) & 5 K K
"f J ef @) + C<
7 K
& /5 f,f 50 5<
X 3
P
$ F C(() K
` J f
.?0 1)
) ) 50G Y @ 2 7 7 *+ Y G( E6-% 7 ' 7
7 . =$ Y 5+ : 7V 1D 7 .(7
89 5( 7 CY X 0 () K9 K6$ 0 C<

( 5<
56Y
% 7 ' - CY
- A
7$ ()
.K 6Y
@
K K$ 5D J F , 5
J 0- Y ( 5<
X% 7
7 + .D &( @* 1 M b( 1H B*3 1 5<
89 7, CY
)60 +0 7 1D 7 C-G X b( 563 7 ' ( '% . '
J <' ( J F =$ ? 7% C. =$ 5 G
9 .H 5 7
.K+ 7
C13 -G 7 F , ( NG3
]
16 5 % C 9A 0- Y X ( 5<
B
.F , <$ 7 * CM E- =$ Y 56Y
W-)
<
7 K 5 7 O, 2 F , ""# 1$ 7 K $
Y 7 : 7D :D
) 89 1H0 ( 1 7 CY X 3
(
7, C%f 1) , 8 E G F I ++ X 1 7 D .(m
-G
.0- Y X 3
0 ( <
=% . 5GY .$ 1) ,
D, 9 C0- Y $( $ M D (0 :-G Y 7 -
1 C-G 7$ KD G $ B .Y 7$ ?+ $ =$ -G 0
WG
CD &( 0
, WG 7 . Y G
.Y . B) &
Y 7 : 5 .-G X 3
G $ - =$ $
M ,
( + .', @ 5 1S C-G 7$ ?+ :D ( N 1 J 7; =% J
@
7 C9 $ . ) 7 5 5<
5
.-G B) Y B) <+
K + 9 $ K((3 9 G 1 1 C5 5 + 5D 5
=$ F9
$ -% C' Y E6- K K6Y
Ya
% CY X "+
"
.-G 7$
& 1H0 7, .

, K9 K 3 K6$ 5+ () 0 :5+ ()
5+ *% G M 7 80 9 .D & 9 C?, - -3 $ K(3 CY 5+
: D6D 5 , C -
7 7 7 Y 7 .
1 C. (, . Y( 5 + - 7 :0 5 + J
.1 5
P 9 @ B* 9 .9 0 5 + 89 56Y
7
=% 5( C0
?, - -3 7 :?, - -3 5 - . J O
& NG3 K H .- -3 89 7 @6Y
?0( CY 7 - ' < E-
9 9 .-+ . - -3 & 9 9 1' 7V CK . Y 5+
. Troll 5 5+ 7 ' 3
7 Y

, 50
.5 7 +-
Y 5+ U
+
7 % :?, - -3 n* . ) . J c
D
M> Y 0 &
C<+ ?, - -3 P 7$ 0

0 13
J ) G 50 BG T'+
7 +$ ' 89 .*%
0 .?, Y n* =$ . ' ) -Y* 0 $ J -Y*
& $( . 9 C 9 =$
Y % 0 0G ()
]]
7V 9 7 .

< ?, 6( =$ ' C* 7
'
$ . J P 0 , ?, - -3

, G

'
? S E
, 3 G 9 J 5 , +-
.K -
& P
?- 1 ? S =% : .+

1$ P 9 . -$ "`" / "è 1$ :1$ G< ()
7 : 5 1 = . 1$ 9 X % 7 C@0
0- Y X%
9 .-G 5 5 ],ff J c,f 7 L C13* 1$ =H X %
1$ =$ 5( J (3 : ' X% @'
M J 0- Y 1H0 U(
)- '
'0 J 0
, 89 .M0 E
0
7 =$ : ' 0
. (
.@$ ?- 1 WG Y 0
WG 0 J < '
M Y X U
C . 0 J "è 1$ 0 J ( 1D
8' 7 .F 5) 9 0
C@ (3 W , B 0G 0
,
7 7 1 0G 0
, 89 % C Y 1+ 0
, 1$ 50 D 0
7 0 $ X 3
F =$ $
.- * 7 E
:+ ' U
7 5 +
.*G 0 89 5D K U( C Y
S U( ""O 1$ ' .1$ ( 7 . $ 'H = 7 F
N0 E- U( J Y 5 + 7 1G 1 7 X 3
d:
J 7D
C1 1 7 X 3
7D K
f 7 :G$ 89 .@$ * :G$
L :G$ 7 = .?0 1) & 5 F CY 5 + 7 X 3
7D K
"
B . ; ! > 7 3
L % 7 J 7, N0 J ? + 7D
@ 1 % C1 $ Y X% . . D L , % :G$ 7 5
BG 9 . b(3 W
1 @, C * :G$% . (
1$ =%
9 ) . M C""c 1$ 5 ?0 1) 7 c, 7 ? + =% 1 $ Y X%
.E
, - % 7 %Of
.#
Y X% =$ 9 DA &3 1 C+
5 0 5D ( 9 19 7
D ! 7 =$ D> 1 G ?+ E - - 7 .-G X% =$ 9 DA 7$
& 7 ) U +, G 7 5D 5
=0 .9 E
5 0 @$ D
D> ++ +- + 7 0 C-G Y +
.
& =$ .
]`
"6 C.+ 2 '

J% :" $%
=% * C0- Y B 3
5<
) . C-G 0
WG B
CY X% G U
() 7 C. Y $ X% 5+ =$ . +
:
< ? 0 7 F
.-G 0
, WG 5H C0 E
, Y 5( 7 J
) 7 C7; = 9 5 E- Y 7$ ?+ $ 1$ 7 J
.56Y
0 1+ 9 G ( J Y B 3
J 5<

$
W * J G =$ F M J X 5 X 56% 7 J
&

7 0 CK . ?, - -3 -
5+ H C19
.(O) 5+
. . ( NG3
K Y
1 . =% . Y 13
X% 1$ P J
NG3 =$ $
CK -G 5 7 ,O J 7 L C
.(c) .@
G + -G
3
@ ( C-G X% $ M D 2 Y 7 7 0 C9
5*G CX 0
() =$ - Y 5*G C-G M ) !
.7 5m
0- Y C. Y 7 Xp 1$
(. "6 ?
L&
( C0 Y . 7 K
< K: 5m
0- Y (
:*$, 5 -G Y 7
5D U* ', CE
9 P 9
' 7 79 7 J 5 H H ' 7 J W *
.F , H
CY 1 B J ; 7 @ 3
$ J -G 0G + .<0 G
. [ 5) (-G 5 5) X 3
) =$ <0 ( 7 1S
""# 1$ G .-G . R9 =$ C9 . 5m
0- Y . ( )
, 7 9 7 )- M M Cc 1 ee =% 5
Y . 1 BG
. % -G . V K + 5<* + 9 .K -G 5 7
7 A F W D6D T. E- Y $( 7 H6 .)-
7 D6D 8 ( B B J
% . 0 7 J F , 5
.
M 9 CF , :*$, S 5
]e
7 , J 89 7, C-G 23 5 F I K 1' "R'" 9 7V ++
5 13 -G ( 7 A B . ! CK -G 5

G TE- 7 D
+ -G 5 5 7 Y .23 F ,
1$
i % C5+D -G ) 13
=% B( 7 9 S )- v A
7 0 (O . -G ) 7
=$ F'
?- 5+ Y 7 & 0 .Y
@ C5
0- Y % 7 %O F'
C .-G 7 5 Y
.(#) , . + $ . Y @3% 1 % C7'
. @0 1
)- W-) .$( W-) K

-G 7 5 F'
Y 1H0
-G 5 5 Y 7 0 C7 )- 1G 13
7 , 5*G
.W-+ 9 7 -+ 9

+ - :
C-G ! U( 5
0- Y 7% J $ G( J 5 +
0 C(*)F , -G 9 1 E
' -G 7 & 0 .. S .
5 5
0- Y 7 7- 5 .70 * <9 .
3 F , -G =$
f J " F , % % NG3 9 .() -G 7 5 e,` 7
9 J . =$ 5 J 7 ( '$ 5( L , =% H % .K

$ @
G Y ) WG . * 0 <0 % WG 7, CK
0*
=% < ! 7 J 5
0- Y ' -

B C ; 7 @ 3

, : .5 ! 7 K K ) ?- J S =% @ .$% - =% B(
@
G Y =$ M J =$ <0 ( C5 ! =$ <0 8 Y B 0
7
<$ ' C

+ 5 G @ K (3 B 0
M CN<G ( ' J
.5 !
( =$ D> F 5 CS =% 5 .$% 5+ 5
0 G B- F9
( $ 7 7$ * 0
% F U* 7 . < 7 X 3
Y 0
.(c :# 5 563 7) -

( 5+ . ()
( 9 C5
Y
.) ! J $B $(/ K ? % F L0 MN & $ (/ & -
]"
(*)
(c :#) 5
- . (+
Y 5+
-

. (+

5 J . 0
. ) 5

J

5 J 7[$

5 J M
. J -
, E

5 J
/ . J

5 J
%

5 J

? S 5 J <
5 ],fff =% 5( -

C5 c,fff 7 . (+ 5+
? +
C5
Y 7 G WG ?
C5) -
5+ <$ ( 7 H6 . D

0 F U* 7 .13 -G . ( )- 7 !G 5+ & K +
7 C < 7 @ 3
$ Y ) ?
7 C5s
0- Y & +
$
.(]) P 3 . S =% @ .$% G ?

(# :#) 5
(Y 0
:D
) &
-

. ()

(?0 1) & / )
(?0 1) & / )
,f
,f
5

,ef
f,"]
5+
f,c
f,c
S =% 5 .$% 1

c,O
O,#f
' (3) G
' & $
Y )

0
,
7
c,f =% c,ff
c,f =% c,ff
O,f =% O,O
O,O
`f

. -
5+ 7 D & K -0 . ()
5+ 7 U* 9
J + CY @ 0[ 5
Y B & 7 & 7 E G ?
F
7 H6 B ( O,#f ' K (3 c,O) ?0 1) & 5 K K
e
.. $ =% 5 . &
$ 0
7 E G 5D Y ) 7, Cv* Y =$ <0 ( 7 )
C7 =% -
7 .' & % 7 CS =% 5 .$%
) ' K (3 J G % 7$ ( c,f J c,ff 9 ) 0
7
.K0 7 CK 5<* @
G Y
<0 ( 7 0 .K6)
i % J Y
1S CK* K6<* R' J 5 9 J . ()
5+
7 , 7'
7 9 R' v* ?
.. 7 G NG3
0
G) . 3,
G .K $ Y C5
0- Y : A 7 0
M 0
7 5) M C?0 1) & 5 O,#f $ @ 13 -G
!
, 9 0
9 7 7% .?0 1) & 5 =% K
ef 7 @0
=% -
5+ U( 1 .(Y ) ' K (3) '0 & 0
Y : M$ S K$G 0G 0

B 7 0
5*G
i % CK K 7
' 0 0
7 =$ J D B- J ( 0
, F C5

.-G ) 7

Y 5+ - -3 9 C. K -0 7 7 Y 5+ - -3 N0 F9
0
, & 7 E G u C) M 7 7 =% . ()
N G 563 7 U K 9 :-
1 F C5 7 ? +

.Y <$ ( =$
K6+
@% C-G X 3
E
Y X% 9 T' Y 7 D
CY 5
B( ' . G .K G( X G 7 = , G .@$
R9 M .B( =% ?, - -3 @3* Y B 6 0* & 9
.@ ( ) 0 C 89 X 3
Y =$ ( U
C + !G K Y M 0
7 7V C-G 7$ K6+
Y X%
7% CP 3, +- 7 K K G G X 3
& ?
?
.((3
5<
1$ M :-$% 7 ) ?0 1) & 5 K
Of 7 $
X% 0 K D K ! 9 Y 7, CX 3
=$ U R9 NG3 89
.X 3
0 : G @

2 9 5 C-G
`
9 &) C++ F 9 Y B 3

<
1 U( E
K0
1 u 7 B) [ C7[$ 8> L + B( 1% 0 .Y - =$ 1
89 .= ,
5), =$ C?0 1) & 5 5 f,f <
(3

? - 7 D 9 C?0 1) & 5 ,`f =%
(3

- 9 U(
.@
G & Y =$ &( <$ 1$ D 0
.0 8' M() 7 G (3
U C B

Y $ 7 '++ 7 C+ ( 2<
b3
7 7 9 7
:5
0-
+ CK G( M
< 7 @ 3
$ & 7D =$ <0 ( ) J
C. ()
5 + 5
Y 0 :D
C ) @
G Y 7 (
. 0
0G E
, @0 1 M
0 .?- Y 7 . 3A <
(3
.<G J O
.@H0 @ Cb3
=$ <0 ( ( 9 9 D
.
9 = , T7+ - F , <$ =$ 5
Y $ D> J c
C-G ( 5 5
Y 56% 9 D .<' E
, -G 5
Y 7
. . <
3 7
U( .Y X% $ 7 <
(3
( F , <$ % DA J #
!G 5<
0 <$ B ' C13 -G ( NG3 =% M> (3
89 7
.K + +
:
C5
Y 7 8 ( 1 7- 5 7$ K f F , 5
3 J
.19 S 7 F , :*$ 7 7 ( 7
. " 7 D
<
3 % u J ]
$ K D K 7 :
J )- KD K M Y 7 C7% ? Y 7
$ ' 7 K F , <$ NG3 =% M> J K6+
K( K -G X 3

13 -G ( NG3 7% % C<
3
DA .5
Y 8 (
C $ .
3 0 @
G 5
Y .5
0- Y ( WG @
.=$, <0 13 -G ( 5 @,
G

% 5D CK E+ & - F9 C$ .
3 89 1S
=% 5( 0
B J 7 =% @+ M J 5
0- Y 7 ' T7

X% B-
C. 13 -G X% ')- 7 D .?0 1) & 5
0 J '
J 5
Y <$ 7V 1D 7 CF , H 5) 7 . + '(
Ò
C5
Y 7 ' =$ A B =$ % C'
G 7 =% 0 ?
D .K++
J 5
Y . ( 5 7 U* 7 .7; = '% 7 ( 5 @ G
9
<$ 5D C-G E
F ', CF 7 K* G
J F I
.'v* 1S CK++ K '
Y
L& M)2; ? .

L4 (0# 2.'
L& -2 $2 "6 $
E- B
C'-G ! F , @ M 0- Y 7% 5 + B-
C$ G(
0- Y =$ -* E- 9 C<0 % <
3 Y X% E

B 53 -G F , <$ =$ 9 DA 7V D Y 13
$( .5

@) 7 B F , 13
C' N0 :D
CP 3, 5 0 7 $
.K% K DA ' % =$ D>
.(*)N Y B( 8 : ' Y 13
F D 7
7, C0 5D !0 =$ 5 C23 -G F , -G K
A 5D - 9
J 0
1+ ?
J 0 ) Y X% ( G &
.(`) 0
Y N< U(
1H0 D C< ' )- G NG3 7 Y 5 G
9
.(e) E
0
, K+ )- G ' BG E-
7 : $
'+ 0 Y 7 3* 13
9 3 5D
) 0 5 + Y .$ CM D X 3
2
H N Y $
=% @3* 0 Y 7 $ 7D6D .(B
E- =$ <
=% F , S % B .$% 1 % CH . ( 0 89 - + 1 C@$
U-
=$ + 3* v 7+ v (3 & B- F 1
C$

5 ( C8 Y 7 '% % &( 7+ .$% 1 < .Y -Y* N ,
H &' 0 89 1 P 3 7 .GG3 b63
7 =(), =%
.O
>% ) P 6> + & 0 8 Q, - 6% F 8 R(
(*)
& ( ?"$ 6 T+U .. + O " ' R 5S I) & 6
& -
.4!4 J ? V 6
6N -'
`c
0 W
C0 P =$ 3
-G . C$
-Y* =$
.b63

(. . "6 2.'
N0 7V CX 3
Y ) B =$ 7$
CKG ' 7 73
7 %
1' 7 . ; 7 X 3
) =$ 9 DA =% 7<- 7 P 3, 3

7 J X - 3 5 0 J 5 ! =$ <0 7 7 ( 9
2[ E
0
7 E G 9 Y ")" 7 9 .G 5) @
G Y =$ <0
) .@%
5 () G % 7 Jx 6D .
, 7 J @ B(
<$ .K 5) J . ( 5 ; 7 @ 3
$ Y ) " WG"
X 3
0 5 5 ! D
7 A 'H0 7V C5
0- Y
.

i % @ K F C ; 7
7 8 Y Y 50 $( 7 C. ( 5 H M() G D
N0 C5s
Y D . -G ! $( N0 .)- (
9 , $( 19 ( :#) 5 7 . . ++ ( 5D 3;
.(") .(
( :#) 5
D )- 13
, $(
-G 1 3
<6 )- $

< $(
< )- J )- J -G J 1
1 ,
1 J -G

,
S J -G
7D
S J -G
.
,
1
( 53)
S J -G
5 D
(S) -G

T $ K .N+ - =$ 7 N 0

7 ( 9 B-

K H .)- 7 + X $( 89 7 1S CK J . =$ J W 5
`#
13 7V C?0 1) & 5 K

f .$ J ) 13
J Y G 7,
G . 89 .5 7 7 L K K 0
8 ( $ -0

. U CK $ $ % .$ E+ R' J E G J 50
.(f) W P
=$ <9
".
3" A C' 7 8 ( 5 5
3 J 5 J F , 7
i%
8 1 5 M 7A $ L 7 . $ ?
. (
.<' 2 7 5 X -G ) 7 5 f,O J f,fc =% X &
CX 3
0 $ D C+0 7 ( G ?
89 1) G
3 =0 . - ) 7 K* - :+ 7 =$ . 6$ C5
5 =$ <0 ) B J 5 1D 7 J .G( +0 - 7
.2 9 7 5 5 ) F6'
' C2
7 B-
9 7 .B- 8 ( 1
7 J 13
1 J ) 9
B( 7 . 0 ) C Y 13
=$ .
3 ?

J 2 7 5 5 ) 7 5 f,fe 3
F , 5 X 3

=% ,Oe 7 2 7 5 5 3 G J -
(
) ( 5 ff,fff 2 .G( 7V F =$ : .7
J K% F , H J 7 A 7 & ' C. =$ '% H [
?
C ; 7 3
=$ . +G <$ . ( CK
7 cff J Off 7
$ m([
7 M C $ 13
) 7$ :Y

.X 3
X% $ C53 5$ ) 0- Y 13
9 *) P 3,
5 F , 5 : 5 . 53 B( ( + .G

+ - G
X% $ 7 & 0 .(9 S 0
-) 7 ) 23
5 CY 13
'v 1 C !
=$ 1 + Hyl 59 Midrex !
7V F .+ ?( B( .$ 13
CG H9 1G 7 <' 7$
) 7, C-G
5 C. *G3 ?( ( X
.() -G ! 1G 9 89 5
1 , 7 1 5 7, CA
89 5D B*3 6 1 , '( B(
O" J OO 50 M C$
: ' 7 ` J c, 7 X '(
P + $ =$ 0 9 D 7V F .B( )- -G 5
5 7 '( 1 I
?
J '$ :Y
J '% 1
`
9 -G 7 7% C)- K9 K ( 7 -G 7

7 =% H % .-G . (
J 'G) J 1 , '( $ 1 7 *G3 $ .80
@% M
.-G 0 - E - 7$ CK : ' =$ ?- F K0 NG3
F9 7 6 C)-

( < )- 1G 50
P 3, E-
.0 89 K 7 1 @, C-G 0
5 5(, 7
C1 , '( B( (-G 0
DA ) 3 G 7 CE
K0
5 K c]f J cf 7 J -G S : ' ( 7 7 J G( 7 G
7V . 3, .-G E % 7$ . : ' 7 7 C '( 1 , 7 7C '( 1 , 7
7- cff,fff @)- B( J @% J ) 0
G
X 3
=$ <0 ) ) 9 89 CK
7 f J ff 7 L &
" <
3" % NG3 ) .2 $( 53 Y ) ' K (3 CY 7
D NG3 ) .?0 1) & 5 K
f 7 Y =$ <0 ( ? ) % %Of
.K$ K 1 , B( 7 1 % F 7
G 7, K .K()
$ 89 7 E
2
7 Y
)- =$ HG $ 8' $ * &9, 7 7 7, KD . ) G

C$
@+ .$% Y E % 9 L 5 7 1D 7 C7 ) 5 - .
1S C% 3* < $( $ 7 - < 7, KDD .$ S 5 9
$( .$) : 9 J $ G( J U* 9 .( 9 0

1$
. . . =$ DA 7 ' C
J $( ' &( J F , S 7 K: 7% 5 + B-
$
7 0 B*3 &
8' <' DA .50G @ 5 F , -G U (
.( 9 10 C +
=$ .0 J ( $( 7 =0 CK 5 7 9 + 7
M ( )G 89 .0 89 + F , ( % NG3 =% M> &
J Y
] J CK 7 e J C-G ( <$ K% K*G3 0
f K6D u C ) 13
Y =$ ++ <0 7 * % .(O) K

)G ) 7V J E- N0 N G Y 5+ 50
9 J ?0 1) & 5 K
7 CP 3 . 9 .K
J # + &
Y =$ <0 (

S < G
< G . * $ N G . <
3 89
.0 . :
C$(
`]
(63
Y X% + .23 5 F , 5 =$ 8 DA @ CK
< K6$ 0- Y U(
( <$ NG3 =% P C10 P
=$ F , :*$, S 5
X% ) L - 0 CK 5 7 #, 7$ 5+ .
3 1 m+[ .F ,
P + J ' 3 7 F , 53 7 :
J ! Y X% .! S Y
.K
cf F , <$ % b+
7 9 D 50 . <
3 89 % J '
G F , 53 J Y X% 1'
+
5 C<0 ( =% < &* 1 CM E- =$ Y 7 9 F , 5 56Y

$ B =$ $
23 K Y X% 7 U( .'+ P !0 =$
. <0 =% K< &* 1 @
G ) @ C0
B ()
u C-G .
3 7$
i % J F , 5 53 J -G Y 7
G
1 9
.
f * <0 <
3 ( 50 CK 5
K Y XV .* % ? 7$ 5Y 7 Y 6 <
3 89 1S
( + 5<
b63
$ G( =% NG3 G 89 7% 5 CG b3
C)- &D 13

$( 7 D K

K ) 1 Y U( ) .@
$( 89 $
) . '6Y
7 Y 7 *<G =$ 0 %
F =$ . 6$ .13 . ) *V ' () Y % =$
C * ) . . 89 C(3 0
A : ' : X% Y U
. 5 =$ K6+D K<$ )- 0
5D
C1'% F , X 3 Y B
7 .KS KD F , G 89 7
7% 5 CF , -G K K
Y U( 1D 7 C)- E
7 ?( =$

F , X 3 J Y W-
9 .-G 0
, =$ K
) ?
( 8 0

.F , -G K9 K
Y 0 C$( L , 3* () Y
7 J
D Y ' G
H 5 C"`# 1$ -G 0
WG 7 86 D 7
B-
C(*) 5(G 9 9
3 5 0 : * =$ F C-G @

: F 7 7
.0 E
5 -
8 ( 7 Y 7, C
0 &G3 7 J
.$(/ I) & J K
``
(*)
=

Y X% 7 CY 7 <
(3
L . B J
<
(3
1) WG K H C
) =% X 3
=$ <0 ( NG3 $
.M D 2 '$ 5 ( 1
=
Y X% 7 CY 7 <
(3
L . B J
<
(3
1) WG K H C
) =% X 3
=$ <0 ( NG3 $
.M D 2 '$ 5 ( 1
.-G 7 7$ :D CY +
& =% F ?+ $ J
'3* 1 (-G 5 ) Y 7, C'9 0G 5+ () J
.-
G J .

, J ?, - -3
Y X% U( C , E
(3 9 G< () J
.(c) K
X [ 1 7% CK3* K$ =+ @6'

*G3 Y % =$ H G 7 ) C-G K$ K
Y U( +
:()% C
89 L U ?0( 7 .) ?, - -3 $ 5+ G 7, CK

i % B* 9 Y CY U( K< G 5 9 .E
() E - 7$ Y
. . 5D C 3 3 ' X E- N0
.K K 5H
-G 5 Y 56% 5 D
7V F $
D6D ( 563 7 5 >
C. 5<
B
(3 .G
Y G
7% C-G Y 7 5 X G *G3 C+, G 0,
$ - -G 0
WG 7 .. 8+ M 13* 1$ 5*G
.?+ $ . =% M> C0 + <
D (3
X 3

3
A
9 CL * 7 + !G =$ 6 3; ?
P
B 3 '() 1$ F , 5 Y X% 7 U( .F , :*$ 7
7% CY B* (-G) ' <$ % =$ <' 8 DA 7 C0
P
=$ '-G B . ! F , S 7 K* .K K
7 1
=$ K*G3 K( K<$ 5
Y ( % .. . C-
-G ! @ ) ' C(<
(3
) :D
) ; 7 X 3
$ 7D
<0 % NG3 M> C)- <' 13
$ @ ', F ,
.K

) J 7D (3
7 + J 7D =$ .0 ( . B
.
( ..
5 F , -G =$ .0 D
=%
D =$ .0 B( 5Y 7$ Ya J K* Y =$ .0 J ,
è
0 1 C

7$ 7D -G U b3 Y U( 9 .X 3
7 - G ) Y $( 3
N0 % .'<$ =$ ( *%
@
G ) 'V C$ G( () 1$ $
CG3 () $-+
53 5D J P 3, $( N0 .++ NG3 =%
&+ 1 , '( B( . =$ <0 0
. =% J ?(
( )- 1G 13
$ =$ <0 . =% M> ', CK-
KG)
.E
9 -G 7$ K6 Y 13
$ <0 5+ ' C5Y )-
( NG3 =% M> C)- 13
GD $( 7% 5 + 7 $ G(
7 + CM G P
=$ .% 23 5 F I
C-G <$
7 .M E- =$ Y 56Y
7 K +0 K( K E+ J . =$ J . ( 5
< G 5+ C@ KD .
3 89 0 7 9 7
.0- Y =% ' 5*G 0 C$( -

,
< G 7 U* 7 .? * 7 D K () ( +
J 7D b3 J Y 0[ % .
S < G ) !G 9 Y X
=$ ?
0 Y X
< G .'9 F , 5 () P 0

F , -G ! U( F , X 3 2 Y 7 = , T7 7 F , ()
$( 13
J @
G F , S 7 D .-G ' ( 5 5 C.
.F , -G B . S . + - K* 9 ! U( J .
, G3
C-G
0- 7$ '0- &3 % C.
'A K< Y

)
P

B = C
F P 7 F , =$ ?0( 7 U(
.-G 0
,
`"
* '(
(. '

5
() R 5
(. 01 :
FG C. ? 9 D =$ ' C+6 KD . 3, ; 10 '
6$G 89 1*3 .10 9 . . + 9 . ( C

!
C10 -G 2 D 7; =
7 79, 7$ ?S C$

- p -G n 7 9 .(O) @ m(
5 + ( + C0 -G E
7 D> '3 P =$ 6H + CE

.7, N0 0) S . ( 0
, =$ -Y* 5 7 , 9 ..
@) G K KD F 7 CE

-G X% ' + . 3,

7 -G E
=$ - F <' D, 7 H6 .(c) @ F6'
' P
K
K 0G Y =-$ ) ( 7A .> 0 1$ 7 7% CK
K6<*
.@ KY
D C< <G : ; 7 ? *
-G B* +0 6 1

S E

* 7 7 <G P % .-G E
E
<
E+ E G P
=% ( B '-G X 3
7 @ C-G 5 +
)G =% 7 C59 7 0 -G $( 7 7 7 < .D &(
1$ ?
0 B
F6'
C0 X E - &0* ?
-G
.( .:G
G 1
7 % + 7 5'
7 ! .
$ 5+

> 7%
7 .0 E
=% . 5 + -G E 7 F =$ ? CK > +G(
b 7 76 $ R0 =% M() L6( M>
59 & 0 7 @ , E

5-0 =$ C-G . D ?6
5 W ( M() 53

59 1 h50
h) +0 ( X D

=$ E

-G $( 5 D, 5 9 5(G 9 7 &'
$ $( 89 '' 5 7
P .0 P 0 -G E

?Y 7 1D 7 C+-

0- KS E0 ', C. $ 5, . () 5 9
ef
89

J *G3 G J 3* 7% 5 + 7 .'$
50 7 ' - CH

5 7% C0 P =$ $(
+0

7
.?+ . 5 $ 0 C-G +0 . 7 + $
1 ) C. 3,
.$ 'S( .$% 1 C-G $( =$ * G ?< *
() =$ 9
7 . +0 ' 5) P 3 .$ '0
J 0 ?< * 50 7 @ F .P 0 5 9 K H
.!0 ! 7 , 9 J X () B 1:6
5 (. 7) N.
N 0
.E

-G B* 5 + : 9 N 0

.U( ')
> B* &' C+
> 3 5

7A 5>G B CE

-G X% 0) . 3, ; Y
E

) X% 7 =$ W% F9 .+
-
> ( :) 5 N 0 .P 3 . R0 0 1D 7 7 . G NG3
C(#)
5 &63 F' C+
' 5 : ; EG 1S .( 9 P
>
.K 5 7 O &63 9 +[ COff 1$ H X
: ; +G 7% C(O :) 5 7 -G F6'
5 ' , &63
.Offf 1$ R0 . $ 5) C+
563 F6'
B) NG3 b (3
F6'
B E

F6'
2 > 1H0 7
0 M COff 1$ = Offf 1$ 7 M
50 K* (O :) 5 7 .)
)- + 7 H G D -+ 89 = . + . G
%O,e 7 J + 8' K+ J 50 L C )- . +
.() K
%#,O
e
( :) 5
(K 5 7 ) E

X 0)
!! ! ! ! 3 !
R> 0
3) ' 8 #- 8 -
,f
",O
`,e
6( M.
f,#
",f
`,e
6.(
f,f
e,]
`,]
6.(N >
(3) - / -'
,

"/ 6>
,
( > G) 6>
e,O
(4) '

(!) H
! 6.(
`,e
4 6.(
],c
>%
'
e,]
`,`
",]
>% A
*K
3
>% A
*K

f,`
`,`
`,
>% A
> R
f,f
`,
`,
>% + +

Q
*K
f,#
",f
`,#
],e
e,"
eO
W ! A 5/

67
",`
e,]
`,O
],e
e,]
],O
],e
e,"
#
`,`
",#
e,
e,"
CERI (1994)
`,O
() >% *- &
",O
*- 6

PEL 1994
PIRRA 1994
DRI 1994
NWS 1994
e,
f,f
`,`
>% * &
f,`
",O
,#
O, ],c
O,c
,O
`,e #,]
O,f
,#
f,]
e,O
,f
",`
,O
,
#,e c,O
,f
,O
e,f
],e
`,]
`,]
,O
],]
`,O
],e
,O
", f,
,f
,#
e, f,
,f
,#
PREM 1995
MERGE 1994
LYNCH 1994
EIA1994
GRREF 1993
ITREF 1993
SIOPT 1993
SIREA 1993
IIYSB 1992
IIYSL 1992
:H6
.) 7* (""#) NWS C(""#) PEL C ("") )- . +
""# $) )- . 7$ ( C0 )- =$ 0 . H + J
7$ ( J N 0 =$ 0 . H + C) 7* (""
.) 7* 1 J "" 1$ )-
' NWS DRI pira PEL + .+
5 0 CERI J
.("") )- . 7 . 3A
ec
(O :) 5
(K 5 7 ) E

' F6'
0)
!!
!
!
!
3
!
R> 0
!
"##$)
2,!
,
2,2
,4
6( M.
2,2
2,
,
,4
6.(
,
,2
,
,4
6.(N >
>%
'
>% A
*K
3 (
!,
,!
2,!
,!3
W ! A 5/

(
4,4
,
,
3,
>% A
> R
!,
,
,3
3,
>% + +

>% *- &
4.2
4.7
0.4
2,
,!
,
7.4
2.7
5.0
6.2
2,3
7.1
4.5
6.6
4.8
,
4.6
4.9
e#
!

%!
&

PEL 1994
PIRA 1994
DRI 1994
NWS 1994
CERI 1994
(O :) 5 B
(K 5 7 ) E

' F6'
0)

%

("##')
10.05
11.06
11.70
,
GRREF 1993
7.10
6.20
,
PREM 1995
5.05
5.01
9.48
,
MERGE 1994
7.64
6.92
6.58
,
LYNCH 1994
7.34
6.08
,
EIA1994
5.79
5.88
5.74
,
ITREF 1993
5.00
5.14
5.40
,
SIOPT 1993
4.60
4.56
4.90
,
SIREA 1993
8.50
8.50
8.70
,
IIYSB 1992
6.50
7.50
8.70
,
IIYSL 1992
7.82
6.12
8.18
IEA 1994
9.00
7.00
8.14
AMOCH 1993
7.50
6.20
8.14
AMOCL 1993
6.96
7.56
WECA 1993
7.10
7.56
WECB 1993
7.64
7.56
WECBI 1993
4.60
7.56
WECC 1993

,
,

,

,
,
,
,
,
e
(c :) 5
(K 5 7 ) E

6 -G ( 0)

(
)
!" "#
,
,
,
$% &'*
,
,
$-'%+
,
0,
,
$-'%. /+
2.4
1.4
2.2
2.3
CERI
(
) 1# 2
0,
,
GRREF 1993
,
,
PREM 1995
,
,
,
MERGE 1994
,
,
,
LYNCH 1994
,
,
ITREF 1993
,
,
,
SIOPT 1993
,
,
SIREA 1993
,
,
IIYSB 1992
,
,
,
,

,
,
,
GRREF 3#4
0 ,
0
,

,
,
,

* 5/ / 16#
e]
,
,
,
5/

#.
,
,
,
,
7 - 7
,
(
) 1 "
.+
5 0 CERI :H
5 > K* &3 CF6'
X + 7$ N<G + &3
.(c :) 5 7
C. + 13
:
CK K63 (
( 7 7 B) J F6'
R0 7A 7<G D ' 1S J )-
P 3, > 1H0 7 .() F6'
0) 0 P =$ K9 (
.Offf 1$ 0 (3 C. . B)
% N. E
'+
> + Y 1D 7 C7+ 1$ K< ' +
0) 7%
! : N 0
.(]) G0*
=$ 1 + ' 7 A CD > 7
.E

6 B* =$ '+- R) C+
> 7 .G

N. ? ,( *
7 J E

J Y -G (3 > N 0
7 5)
.(`) )- W* A > 0 3 N 0
563 7 C* ! 7 G

. * ) * :-3 7 U 0 ?
, 7 F' CP
: b3 1$ 5 ! 89

5 + 7 3 0 .@$ : ; W% 7 70 > )( 7 - J
.10 W 7$ X 3 7 3 > : 3 7%
C1$ WV =H : y 5 ( K(3 CHG =% > : 3 5 J O
.+

9
G $
. 0
, 9 K(3 C

, () E<+ 59 =% 5 > 1H0 J c
7% 5<+ N ' (+ C" H E," . 7 > 0 KS J #
.? + 5+
Y
F

=$ . Y( Y 59 CP - =$ =% > 5 J
.(e) N 0 ? E0 K(3 C' D
: b3 b (3 @ =$ Y -G > +0 !
e`
.N 0 *G3 + C 0

I @0G + :-$% =% > 5 J
. 0
, K(3 C() 5 0 7A 7 5+ 1 J O
.50G 'D ) - > ) 7 . G + Y S J c
7 5+ 0 M , C &
D =$ ' u . ( > J #
.N 0 . & NG3 =$ . )
%

&
(E
)
7A C 3
6 + A "`` 1$
0 C-G ? Y ) =$ ) S J "e 1$ 5) J @
G
7 = CF , -G =$ 5 ( : E
=% 5 3 -*
7 5 .F .<

J ) E

+ 9 ) .(3 @ 7
M>

. 5 7 c, 7$ 5+ J "e 1$
-G 7
.*K 5 7 #, + . =% -G X% b)
-G X% 7A "`` 1$ 3
7$ ( C + 9 7%
> ?( @ U( .)- > A-3 =$ * D, 0 C(")

7 CX ' =% M>
J : Y (3 J -G 5 + B 50 :
7A
3A 0 M ,) Y 7 9 5H
5 9 D
7 N +
3

C-G =$
?- :% .(
.0 '
&( 5 C10 -G M
7 =% 5

7
.(f) D
CK 5 7 O,O =% 5(
$ 563
( G$* F B
.K 5 7 , 9 ) . M
B* 7A + =$ J 1 $ .$ J 3
+ -
+
=$ 9() 0 5 7 P > 89 ?S .
-G
NG3 &
J ) 5 7( E

9 J M --3
) .7A ' )- . 1+ ( :) 5 U* .K &) = ' (
!G ' 'H (O : 5 '* ) ""f 10 > 7 $ K* . G(
.-G 7 9 B) 7A J 1> J U* 9 C
>% RS" & ? $ F /& + ( ? ' -' 6E
." A *K ...
ee
.* + C> , ++ 7 1 . + 89 1H0 7%
D ? 7 = C
- 1' > =$ . + 1$ !0
.

L * 1$ . D : * =$ CK - H
)- 5 - 1+ 5 DD ' [ + . 3, . G
X NG3 A C0) HG =% 5 ( .E

=$ U* 5D 9 .( "" CR) 0 M B
' 7 K F6'

7A +$ 0 9 .(KG . 0 ! 7 O 1) ) E
X

1' ! > : 3 7 > C<G . ( P 3 . Y 7 7 B*
.( 9
( :) 5
-G ( 7A )- . >
M --3 =$ 9() 0 5
(O :) 5
1$ 7$ M --3 =$ 9() 0 5 7 -G ( >
""f
7 :+ $ C> G3 ( =% 5 9 :H6
.'> ( EG F =0 D
-( H!
/(

5 -G X% ?- R0 7A <G $ G( > 1H0
1H0 +0 .50 ? + F =$ R0 9 P ' 7% 5 CE

7% .Offf 1$ 0 &
C- 7 @$ 9 =$ =+
-G ( 7 : 3
E0 K(3 CHG =% < 5 CW @(+ % CK D @$ 5m 0[ : 3 M 7
.-G N $ A

5D C5 - P =$ E

-G B*

, 19 7%
5 7 5'
7$ * 79 5 .' 3
G -G 7 . -
7 5 * 0
563 7 7$ * 79 ! &
C-G

+0 +
.X ()

0 7 ++ .N , 7- 6( 8 ?- -G X 3
7 +- 7
.-+ 89 7$ 7 GY 7) 1H0 7 7% C+) S .> S K< 7 +0
e"
-G 0-

G $ 7 CE

B 50
G .G 0
63 : * =$ (3 CY =% ! 7 C'
C.> - 7$ HG E) F9 CP 3, 5 7 $ .
K* 7* +
7$ . ( .P 3 @ 53
$ 'D 1 7% 7 9 B) - M CB) 5 -
u
+ J () 7 J
) 7) N0 7 9 .0G G
7$
: * = F .H Y + 50 ' =$ C- 7$ '
7 =% ! CN , 7- . =% C-G 5 + 1
.() .> - 50G ' 3

=% < 5 ' C'( P F 7 3 '
G 0 + 7%
. 1 + =%
.. . ( ? C?
.(O) P 3, E- 5D 'D CWG =% 5 ' (X 3
6 + ) E

U
. ' + 7 K$ 5D 5
=$ (c :) 5 7

7 U* 7 .(Masters et.al., 1983-94) G3 ) (USGS)
7 K .!+ E - G 0 &63 5+ =$ 50
89 7$ 0
89 7 D 7V CE

X 3
6 + ., 5 +
.* +0 563 K
%O,`
0G
(c :) 5
-G
+
""# J "ec 7 3
: (
C4 % %
' 7 ' T7 =% (# :) 5 '*
. 70 '
i % J * S -G E- 7 ' 1S J
E

P &0* M
9 C0 &a 1 .> -G - . S
' ) K60 G D .(-
, E -G =% !+ < 5D 1 7% ) .
.$) M J - 9 .* . ( . 7 5) 5 6 (E
X
K + . -
, E =% ? )
7% 5 + 7 J 50G Y

.(c) .
1 C3* -G 7 7 7 9 7
7 K* H6
7$ '$ T7
=$ 9 5Y
1 7
3 .GD . ( '6Y

89 7 1S .Tengiz 1
& 0 13 '-G .: C0 -G E

E+ 1 C
+ 3 $
- ) K* !0 ' C+-
.(""f 7

) G 0 5D, 56Y

"f
(. ,0 2 J; -

7 CE

% J + . ( J U* P 3 D
:
=% M> ) Y 89 + 7 .'% ; D 5 + 1
.'0 50 $ - 3 Y 1D 7 C3
G 0 &63 ?
C1'G
(# :) 5
(5 ) E

-G

/L'
R/

G
Q/E

%

M

'

(
2,3
,
,
,
,
F
,
4,
,
!,
4,2
,
,4
,4
!!3,
& IF
!,
,3
,
,
,!
,4
,4
,2
3,

XS
3,3
32,
,
3,
!2,
4,
4,4
4,
3,
28 "
!,
,
,2
,3
,2
,
,!
,
!,
- G>
,
,
,
,!
,4
,!
,
,
!,
&'%
3,
!,2
,
!,
,
,
,
,
,2
&'
2,
3,
4,3
,3
,
,
,2
,
,2
'F
,
3,
,
!,
4,
,
,4
,3
3,
&'-F
""# . RIVA, JR : (

10 USGS 7$ K6+ C!
, + 7 . 3A . + :H6
.(7 3 7 ) ""//OO n OGJ 7 .
+ ."e"
.G 0 5 &63 ?
' KY A (3 + 7 ) J
7 CX 3
6 +
"e#
7 . 3A -
, E + J
.-6
IESS 7 C(""c J "e) Xp
7
"
% $
E

7 5 -G 5 + 7 + (# :) 1) 5 +0
' b) G -G 5 + % . S 5 ' ?
K C.
9 .5+
7 -G 1 =% = 7V C0 +-
=% F B ) C . = 7 D
= 'H E

$ F9 5 6 C= 9 5 1> 7 ' . + :
$ ) .P 3, 5< @D 9 CE

G S 5 + 7
?

9 C2 ' 9$ 10 )60 -G 5 + <) =$ 9
X 3
6 + 1
.(Nehring 1978)
1 7$ 5+ 2 ' + 7, CK $ * + 89 7A 1 B-

- b<(3 7$ +) 1S C. 5 +
= ++
D E

5 + 1H0 7 ( :) 5 U* .(X "" R)
C. * D, 5 + 7 A- 50
9 50 9 CK
0
5 + K + CB) @$ 9 5)A 8 + 1 ) ' 7 7A 5 F' F
.
7 5 1 % ? + =% + (# :) 5 =% 0 %
S =$

5 + 1 = 7
C. E

.() G S 3* 5 + 7 $ 0 9 C =
E G 9 C)60 5 + N0 X 3
6 5+ - 1 <) ( :) 5
5 + 1 = 7 <+ 89 U* ."è 1$ 9$ C+
2 ' +
.++ 1 7 D 5) J (# : ) 5 J

( :) 5)

5 + 5 + 7 +
.2 ' CX 3
6 + : (
"O
( :) 5
E

3* -G 5 +

7 3
+
(""#)
2 '
& n
5+ 1

("è)
,ef
Oc,#]
c,fff
"]]

O,##
#,O]O
,`f
"]

,
,c"O
,Of
"]O
M

,]`
,"f
"f
"]#
F

O,fe
,]]`
eff
"`f
&
,"
,c"O
`cf
"]O

? S
",f
,#cc
]ff
"`
&
,
]]#
]ff
"`
7 5
c,ec
,"#
ff
"`
7
O,f`
#,``
Of,ef
%
9 C0 9 - 1 CY

S P 5 + <) (] : ) 5 N 0
5 + 89 1H0 .P Y( ' N0
E =()

1 5D 5
=$ .(B- -
, E :D
) P 3 +- A ' + $ )6$
!
7% 5 .5 =% @ 5( C"#e 1$ E6$ 5+ 3 &
23 5+ Kuparak River F ' 5+ 9 C1 9 7 7+ M
'
7 U* 7 C5 + 1 .+

-G $( 7 1S .Prudhoe 9
.Y
S 5 5 7$ ' 5 + N0
"c
0 (
H6
1
5+
+-
7
5
OGJ
14/8/95,p.17
OGJ
14/8/95,p.17
OGJ
14/8/95,p.17
OGJ
14/8/95,p.17
OGJ
14/8/95,p.17
5 >
#,f
5 >
]f

5 >
cc`

5 >

& 3
5 >
c]]
OGJ 12/4/93
OGJ 10/8/92,
5
p.21
OGJ 10/8/92,
p.21 5
OGJ 10/8/92,
p.21
5
J M

X
cf
M

7
O,#f
5

J 3
c,e`f
1
,#e
&
OGJ 26/7/93
,fef
M

7
WSJ 2/10/94
f
M
J 7

E =()
OGJ 20/6/94
PIW 6/3/95
#,ff

7
3
,"ff
F
OGJ 8/11/93
c,ff
[ CE CM
7
,fff
F
7

>
7
>
7
>
7
OGJ
30/1/95,P
39
$
0
J 7
WSJ 8/12/93
OGJ 15/5/95
O,#ff
6+
c,fff
K 6+ ]`
"#
7
3
.+ 9 0#

. G ; 50 7 & 0 .X 3
+- 2* =$ 3 K > ; D 0
9 C
N , B < 5 0
u E

cc 50 u M . P
7 5) @ C(-+ f, u M) -
, E 50 7
.(M 9
:D
) . X . ' M 10 9 C"`f 1$ K <
' A 7 C0 E+ 1 E

+- X . 7A 9
."e` 1$ E+ M CK 5 7 O,` J P
&
5+

% 7V CE

X 3
0
' &0* 1S
1$ 7$
? S
; % + (` :) 5 7 .. ;
7 =$
; % 7 $ G( .() . K + C""f
.<0 ; % NG3 1S C ' H
50 C ; % B =% M> % C. 7
( 9 ' , 7
%ff J f
; % B % F9 . &
) N 0
9 G ; 7 H ) .(""O & 3 7)
. + 13

7 5+ % -
0 C Y + 13
Komi Arctic F -G
7 7 Upper Vozey 7% 5 .(""c ) < K 5 "ff =% cf
7 ) 89 7 1S .(]) Y + 13
5*G ; % G$*
=% CE

;
WG U* 'V .:D

.(`) +
H . ( 8
"
(` :) 5
(""f) ; %
X 7 <

< %

E

f,
K 5 `cf 7 D
",#
f,]
K 5 `cf J c]
##,`
c#,#
K 5 c] J eO
#,"
#,
K 5 c] 7 5)

? S
,#
< 5 7 K 3
5 $
. < %
,Of",`

OO,f
G
c,f

c,f
96
f,O
!

.(#c G()
J M J 7 . 3A
: (
C

, -G . ) -G '0 7 . 3A .
.(""c
:""f 1$ . ' ; X% :H6
.X % 7 % c," M CK C5 O,O -
CK < #]O,eOc
5 + 7 CK
0G CY
S -G 7 0 B
= 8 +
) & S -G 1 7 CS E

7A
-G X% 7$ 0 E) = 1
U
B- 9 .B) 7 5) 'H
CX =% R0 . 0 7 q @() -G 7A -+ % CE

.=*

+
=$ E G =% 5
"]
C.! '

C-G $(
:, ' < + A D +$ '
C

, 7 9 S ?, - -3 5
L6(% =% =$
. :
7$ <
3 0 C. ; NG3 ?
0
6
7 $ F9 .
+ 563 0
' &0*
3* D
6 () M 7$ 5:
'*0 CX G WG =$ >
.(e)
5 + (3 C

?
C3* D
-G 5 + - ' ( Y <
3 A F9
9 .(")
'0 0 P 3, + 7 9 S : 5 + S
& $ Y .< D; '

, L6( D
@ =% >
0

, L6(% 7, C & ' )6$ % C0G <
3 8'
=% H ? 9 C. $ 56Y
7$ H & ( C

< *,
0 G C?, - -3 5+ G 7 . 3 & 9 $ 'G
+ 7 ' C 0 0
, : * =$ <*
P
5 C< *,
? .(Of) (X ""# )- C""# 7 3 ) 5 ! EG +-
L6(% G 7) P 3, & 5 7V J K K 1 % J -G X% 7 F =$
7$ 5>
L - 8 9 C9 S U( (n ...B( =% ?, - -3
.5+
X & )
'
7 ' G 50 7V C
( 7 ) ' 0 7 0
, %
Russian Energy Prices, b CX ""# C)- ) + . (
i % 9 +
7 K+
N G[ 7
'0 @% ! : 3 5 + F =$ 5 .(1993; 25
7 = CW M G 5) 7

89 3> C)
N 0 : 7 %cf
New York ) .K0 b ( W G @ $ M "%" 5$G W
.(Times, 15/92, p.3
@ ! 5 C1'G =$
$ E

-G $( <( 5 7%
7% CK6( F9 % .P 3, 10 E- 1H0 !0 C7, ?S =0
E<+ & ?
C0
E - &63 ?
% .( S '
C5 89 20 7 M * 7 .(O) 5 1$ ) DA ?
C.
. (
5 ( 5
$( =% - ) 1H 7 -G W-) 9 .$V
"`
+ 5 7V F 1S .8 9 - F 5), =$ C5D, P

.+
$(
1'G & S 5H

' . . ( ( C ( '+ 7 U(
!+ + 7 0 7V CK+
.5 . D 7 3 ' C

5+ > - ?
! CN , 7- -G !+ 5+ 1
7 W $ . 563 & 7 -3 + 89 7 D 7 .X 3
6
=$ J 5 7V $ .F =% C<
(
7$ CE

-G W-) D
% > N0 J 5),
.5+
X 9
( F# %
1 C-G () K+0 5 7 Xp 0G & + $ 0
3 M CE

5D <
C
7 5+ P
' N 0
+ $ 5 1D 7 .'% . +
5 =$ . 6$ C+

Y
C&> + ? =% + : 9 5 .K0( K &
.. 1) , F
b+
B* 7 ? C)- (% . G + =$ $ %
. ' '
C + + ' 7
' $
-+ 7) =% C' + ?
"G X" J & 0 3
7
c] 7 & 89 L C $ =$ 0 96 C
X &
& 7 KG( 1m
+a C5 ], J M CM 7- 5 K # J
.Y &

13
C(OO) +

563 7
? S -G X G + E
+
K+ .+
0 7$ K D 2< &3 1 .' 5<
0 1H 7 $ '
# J , 7 L
? S G 7V C
D
(3
89 7V (
5 ) X &
G K+ .5
1) , CG 0
&+
5D 1) 9 C5 ` =% BG G
.. 'D 7 5)
& B 7 =% 0)
. + & 7$ P 3, + N0 ? =% C(e :) 5 ' + 89
7 .+
. + & 7 .(Oc) -
G G
R
7
'*0 C9 . ( 9 3 G N0
"e
=$ HG

& 9, K H .)- D
7$ . (""f)
7 L C* G
56%
!
=$ '
1 . + & 7V CX
(.K 5 7 ,O J f,] M) X 7 %Of J f
C""f 7 3 '0* 7$ ) G + 7 $ 6D F9
D
+ =$ + 7 = $ 0 .(""f R '0* DD
B () '0 9 . S
X 9 D $ .

G 0 &63 =% B 7$ 7 63 H6 .("e") +
-G .
.0 29
7

Sagers
7 + 5 G + 7 DD $
7

7$ . 3A D
=% 7
C& 0 S ' 73
Gustafson

-G X% G + 7$ C"
%" G( + 7$ C(""f)
B (n ... G & 0 5D) X ($ 0
5D N G CSamotlor
.
, 5 .<
0
,
C .$) G NG3 =% ' C. )( + 89 B
Xp f,fff =% 5 . . + & 5(
C-+ + $ (# :) 5 . + B 7 =$ 1) 9 C
=% 0G % 5+ & 7% 5 .0 0
, 7 D 5) K< G 7
5H &
++ < 0 7V J 0 0
1) 9 J 5 7
.3*
""
(e :) 5
E

-G G +
)- +
$'
W $
3,
4 -L
22

OGJ 3/7/89, ) +-

(P.18
%
,

!,2

8 22
* 6
24
8
) +' )
4
,!
8 2
( $
,3
!,!
8
4) Y

0 U 8 (
3,2
?W $ &
,!
/
' A
F
,
?W $ &
,2
% /
'
S
>%
/
'

Z- $ F

Q/
Z ' >%

&
/
'
6
S
N
F

%
6

MN

3,2
%
!,
' 6

(OGJ 9/1/95)
!,
%!
4,
,22
%
,44
%!
ff
DEF (
(e :) 5 B
E

-G G +
G +
() \
' B /
' $ E
,!
G
2,

$

&EU -
(! )
6
,
4
% (E
!,

]
67 M
4,!
!
W &% &

43
"L 6
*-
)

6 0
(
(>
,

6 0
(>

*(

- 0 LF ?
&EU
,3
,
!
4,3
!
!,
2
(2 8 2 /()
!

-
3
&+
,!2
,!
,2
+-
,2!
6 ) &+
(
3,!
,
$ /
') \
+ MN
( L
f
-
G
) &%

(4 8 ! /() &EU -
(
,4

,
!
,

3,!
!
&% &
4 ^ M
,
!
&% &
3 ^ M
(""f) R 7$ K6+ C0 ? C0 ? C

% C7

C
: (
.
P 3 (
., 5 ! 'H0 F C$ 7 0 <) (" :) 5 N 0
7 K$ 5 N 0 ) .X 5+ 1 G 7$ 5 9
& ?
1 .( + 5
=$ E

5 X 3 P 3, $
7 H6 .(O#) Adelman 7 2' =$ K$ 5 G 50 . +
N0 7 .. =$ ' 5 ?
1 C + 89 =% &* D
7 K$
C(K K6+ ]`) 7
3 + 5D C'$ $ 7 0 1
+
? =% CY ? - -3 5D -G $ 7 K6 5 M 73
+ F
W 7 1S .K6D G
C-G ' )6$

, $
7 B C++ 5GS + 7V C KS 2 Karachaganak F
.5 X% G @ !A NG3 =% M>
7 9
1 .5 89 5 1S C) G - 7 ) E+ 7 @ H6 7
] J O Y < G 7 M) #,fff J O,fff X G
f,fff G 89 5D u 7 C0 0
7 -

9 (5
7
E

. 5 + 56Y
7 K* D 9 ..
+G 7 $ .. . K + C<* @G
CK() S 'A -G B 7V J . 89 J 0G . +

.P 3, 3 5 0 ?< * 7$ H NY
fO
(" :) 5
E

5 + 56Y
G

,

! ") - .
!"

( 1 "
#

)
)
)

(
(
(
+#

$ %&
'("

! "#!
/

$)*
8
,2
,4
,2
!4
!,3
!,
''
,4
,!
4,42
!4
!,3
4,
6
L 8 &
/
!,34
3
4
'+
$ F
,423
!!
!
$'
& '
,3
4
2,
Y'
$ +
!,22
4

''
&
,
4
$L

3,

#'L E+
,!
,
,4
!,
!
42
A(>F 8
TL
!,
4,23
2,22
!

!,
8 &

#'EF
!,3
,!
44,444
!

3,
4,!
,4
3,2
!
2

,4
!,
!,
!
2
,
,!!
!,3
,
!
4
!,
!,44
3,
,
!
4
4,
fc
/ 6
MMMMS
& E
(" :) 5
E

5 + 56Y
G

!"#
*
*
' *
$ 0
,- ,

+
1
.
)
)
)
(&
(
(
) $%

(&

/

$% &
4,3-
44,156
300
1,200
-,000
/+, /'*%
,
5,44
7,200
3,100
/+, /'*%
,
5,77
44,883
800
7,000
3,000
/ +, /'*%
,
"!*
&
4,883
60
100
5,83
0,43
1,234
30
4,600
750
5,50
4,2-
4,478
5,810
4,600
7,000
5,55
0,44
7,-18
470
1,200
200
7,03
0,77
2,000
700
1,200
4,200
BGC/ Agip
9,
IBGC/
9,
Agip
BGC/
Agip
9,
(: ;) *
,
) *
(;
8,85
0,66
40,53-
78
732
730

8,52
0,85
40,53-
78
800
730

48,58
2,20
46,817
-10
7,000
48,200
< 83
"
*% & &=
1.42
0.20
2.22
90
1.00
200
M. W. kellog
9

9%
7,48
0,15
2,000
450
2,000
200
8,000
800
? @
A/E '>"
5,200

%
,
:H6
.%Of 8 + 1(3 0
N
f#
1 $ 3A 7 M * 7 7 C73

M
3
J 7 +
J
.5
0- Y $ @ 5 !

EG ?
a C D
E % + 1 7 5+
J
. ,
G 7 % 50
5Y +G 7 !
=$ ,
5 C(? E "e] R 7) C7 + -
5 & J
. ( 7 . 3A
(. '
$( J; 8N
'9 ' CE

-G () 1' =$ $
P 3 > D
D
.
F =$ 5 . -G +- 0 +- 89 7
?+

+
1$ 7 @ 1
1S C+- 89 '$ 1+ ,
0 ( 7 > C, D
7 13* 1 F9 .()

.(O) (K
e J ` M) `f J f 7 L C-G
'% E
-G $( 7$ )- (f :) 5 U*
-G $( % 7 K .
7 ' .. D 9 C5 7
% 7 H6 ) .. . K + F C?< * ''

CK0 G ?< * W 7 5) J 0
, W[ 7 M J -G 7

B 50 M C 0
) F W[ 7 -G 1H0 7, C.
3 $( ' D
5(
-G $( =$ * G ?< * 7 .(-+ 0 0
-

C D
6 K -G $( H F 1S C 7 D D M , C%]f =% K
. 7 K D 5) J
J 0
=%
G 7 0 9
..
(# 3
$(
C' > Xp G +-
0
K6$ 0 J '9 '0 :
J G " Y" M .0 P =$ 5+

G 7 5* C. +
0G G 7 $ H6 7 .( 9 K

* 5' 1(3 0 =% 9 Y B*3 CB
5 *G3
.P 3 Y M
f
(f :) 5
-G $( @ 5
6 6
8 F
* 6N
* 6

4,
!,!
,
"S
4,
4,!
2,
Z '
!,3
32,
,
6"
6" ( 8
(%)
,
3,
,
"S
,2
4,
2,4
Z '
Russian Energy Prices, Taxes and " + 7 . 3A

(3 : (
7 . 3A . .)- 7$ ( () 5 ) Costs 1993C
. .""c 1$ )- . 7$ ( "Performance profiles"
7 . 3A
"The Energy Report, oil and Gas Resources of the united Kingdome"
.$( . . % 7$ ( CD :
. ,] M

@ J
.EG% 7$ . $ . . & J
. +
& J
$ CD 3 D . 7 K

, E+ 7 +
=$ <0 NG3 C ; : 5YY ?
9 C. $
G
) .56Y
6 + .$) &
?
(
< 5 5 $ M) G
7 A 7) 50 ( : 5 H)
% J 7 G .
.'% 3* . D
n* X
5), =$ ' C-G $( F '
A 1 G . 9 7V C0 -G $( $-) 7 D 5 9
.0 ()

+0 . $ D> ?
5 C' 0- 5 0 ?

&
7A G J
X 3 J & NG3 (3 + N0 F9
A-3 +

7 K D 7 D 9 .G =$ D> 50 7 1 -G
&
=% @0 7 J D +$ 7% M J G WG
G
f]
G 0
. ?
NG3 =% CX ($ G WG =% @$ % 7

< G < G ("" J "eO) . G 563 @ H6 .(X "" CR)
.. K
%,
NG3
7 7 ? 89 .G +
' 7$ 5>
9 D )
5
L6(% 7 7 .
3; % 9 T- Y* 7 7$
0 & ( < 0 M> C (+ P =$ G 7 0

G NG3 B) 0 ?
D6D F9 7 . !G =% B)
7%
-G $( =$ 7' 7 M M 8 !0 C+ +
=$ X B 0 2 =$ 0 D -G $( 7 TK .D
7 ( :) 5 7 .0 P X 3
?
=$ A B- F C (+ P
9 7$ 7 1 J $ Y 9 J . :
5D F

() 0- M --3 1H 7 TKD .KD K 0 M +
? $ E G . ( .:G 10 ?
C. <
3 =% J $ G( J 7>
13* =% E
) . 9 B + - )
19
7 D TKDD . )
=$ -Y 5 7 C
@ 9 C&0* =% ; % B Y E - . 29 E-
.@ (3(3 $ 1$ : *

@
f`
6/ $.E ,
"

8
8 2 8
&

22

8
2,4
,4

,3
/
' $ 8 F

,
,
+
,2
,
G
,

)
(!"#!
2,
_ M $ Q/E

(-L) *
,
_ /
' 5/
4,!
,3
3,
Z ' % 8
Z ' 8 M
2,!
2,
+-
3,3
!,22
) Z'

V Z ' E
,
,
G
,
,4

. 8 */ Y ? 8 2 */ %, +- &F K.
fe
( :) 5 B

-G $( G $(
G 563 <

"e# J "e
"ef J "`]
7
"` J "Ò
D
7

e,"
O,`c
J ,c
",Oe
,f
zc,O
. +
: (
.(]f G() 9 & 7 G & J
(]f) G( C(""f) 7

7 . ; X% 50 J
.'A . G (""c) 7 ; & J
? (3 +G :D
Ce G( C 9 & 7 & -
J
.
oil and gas journal, 3 july 1989.p.18. :
% + H J
7 H6 C(c" G( c] G() 9 & 7 . 3A & J
.0) 7 3A ""f J "e] . G M
Y
CNG3 @ J 80 J 1+ +0 G 7% K $ 5 + B-

. Y( 5 + =% 5+ =0 M C+ 9 7$ NG3 9 7 7%
CP 3 % B) E+ ) NG3 8 9 5D 7 .< 7,
.G . 7 0) 7 1S =$
.
! 5D .9, K ($ 0 'V C 5 9
G 7 1S
. , D
? 7 760 9 G NG3 B 3* 5 +
7 5(G 9 9* $ > .'$ =S 76$ K* ' CX
B (X 3
G ?+) E

-G X , 5
: =0

.0 7 0 7 F 5 CM() ? (0
.+0 H @< C -*

@ H 1S CE

D

f"
7 =% J 10 7 P 3 E- K + J E

G NG3
-G X% =$ B 1+ % . -G X% 7 M() <0
A
89 .E

50 '
G P U( 1D 7 C8 (

=$ 0 & -, B B C$ 89 5 W ( ?
U*
.' 63
5 : 3
* + 7$ 1D 7 .X > 7 ?0( +
?- > 0[
7 1S .(Wilson "ec) 7
9 .
$ C?- 1 7$ +
>
@> 7 D + C(] : 5 7 ) ?- 9 < +
+ @

.E

M() ' = ) 7 ) =$
(] :) 5
-G F6'
>
CM() 0 7 )- 13
.:G 7
7 * - Y* : * =$
.WG @ E

-G =$ +
?- DA 7 H 7
5
() 7 K(3 C
, ! ?- DA G > 7
M() 50 CN Y @G M() L6( C' 5 5 7 .
.D )- 13
$( =$ . 6$ C? 0
, P
C +
S

B .-G 7 Y U( 1G )- =$ $ 5+ 5 F9
. +
10 K* 0 D 7
)- =$ ?- 7V C ) G3 ( 7 X
7, C 0 , 7 9 E

)- 13
.:G 10 7%
F6'
&
'$ 1 C 0
, WG 7$ > 1$ CM --3
50 < 0 7 CY 13
5+ K6<* KD KY 7 0 7
7 % .)-
)- F6'
U( 1D 7 .(O]) : 5( 563 7 G 1' C ) 6
) %e
E
() 5 F6'

E G E

-G 5 7 f M) -G 7- 7 #ff .
3 0 9 C(7 3
.(O`) ""f 1$ (K
:& 13
=% 5 E

L P A 7 5'
7 !

7A 5 + 7 CK
0
. ( 5 , ! > E * % .)-
J )- 13
.:G E0 J M() 7 0 H P
=% 5(
E

f
J M0 - &63 J 3 5 $ D 7A .7+ 7+0 563
.%O, J O 7 L
C)- 13
.:G M
7
=% M>
7 U( .M() 9 J K+

J )- F6'
M D 50
% 5GY 7 0 F 7 C-G X
5 9 K B)
X' 0 (3 C% 9 '
.B
M() F
)- . .(""# 7 3 ) B
?
') G CE
6(%
7 'D, K+- COfff J ""f . G () 9 =% A
.
%#,O 7 OfOf J Offf . G 50
7V C(K
% J #) 0 P =$ 5 +0 M() 50 > %
5 P
7 ? + C)- =$ ?- b+
.:G 7
: %

% J # =% 5 ?- BG 7 C(K
%,) M() 7 0 H
7 KG* C1+ +0 563 K
%O 7 ? +
-G =$ ?- 7V $ .K
=$ D
i % ' 7 7 89 5D COff 1$ 5 ?- =% K 5
. ( -G
"6
8 D 9 5
.E

)- W-) K9 K ($ 5 Y 5
C+0 6 5 3 7 .$ G( 0 C(3 G(
-G $( =$
7; & 0 9 : * =$ F C( 9 'D B) - 7 0 > 7
.5+ X () 7$
N0 7 0 ' C' Y 5 =%
Y ( 1S
$ 5+ A
'

, 5 ?
C0 b ) ?
+
7 L ) Y =% Y 5+ G 7 7 3 7) + U* .(Oe)
& / c, =% 5( ) B 0
7 5) < 9 C(?0 1) & / O, O
F (?0 1) & / c, =% 5( ) B 0
7 5) K< 9 C(?0 1)
!0 C7 5+ ?, - -3 5+ G 7 & 0 7 .(O :) 5 'H
S
? S )60 5 + 7 K$ F9 7 .P 3, 0
+0 P =$ 0- Y 5+ G BG 7 5 S 7 F : * .Y

.(O") 7+ 7+0
56 % =% M> &
C Y =% (3
Y ( 7V E
K0
N 0 1 C+D $( ( )- v C-G 5 Y
B) 7 7 1 7% CK

K*G3 -G =$ , ?- 5H 9 .-G 0
NG3
-G ) E
=$ 8 DA (+ &
CH B
DA 7$ B* 9 G
7
.13 -G 0
G
?
&
C
E =% Y =% 7
7 ? -3 :% 1 %
' .1+ +0 563 8G 7) 0 &
: G WG
5 - 7 .Y 9

Y ( K K+ - J 7* 7+0 P =$ J 7 % 1 @
G ?

E- 1D 7 . =% K S
Y 5+
?, - -3 P
C .9 S Y =$ ?- 7A 8 !G 7 % =$
(O :) 5
Y =%
0- Y B G
H6
G
7
(?0 1) & / )

G
O,ff
Y M
G
f,``

X 3 =%
E

. ?, - -3 G
O,Of J O,ff

=%
5 + 7
#,ff J c,ff
! 7
=% 5+ G 7 +

. G
(?0 1) & / )

""O 0 &
f,c
0
"" 0 &
f,`c
0
Offf . + &
f,"c
]"f : P

Offf . + &
,`
eO : P

Offf . + &
c,Oe
,fff P

: (
Adelman and lynch (1981); IEA 1993, p. 58; Arthur D.little estimates. Cited
in Dienes et al. p. 77
--3 C
5 =%
Y 7 3* ( 1 7 B) 7
5 7 .7( =% (?0 1) 7 ) ?0 cf ( Sidanko
-G
O
C?0 1) & / ,] 0

7 =%
E 5 + 7 Y 5+ % (c :)
/ O,c J ," 0
7 =% C?0 1) & / O J , 0
=%
.WG 1
?< * 0 1
7* 0
, 89 7 H6 B .?0 1) &
' C%f =$ ' M()
C7( 5<'
0 B
=$ 5 ( 1G 13
'
.5+
Y F6'
E
U(
7 . G Y 7 , 5 ?$
) ' 0 9 .)- 7 ' 7 %`
=% .(cf) B( 5 1G 5 @6% &' C)
7 1 7% C$( W-) -G 5 Y 5 7 5 F9 7
7
.1+ +0 &( = 7 79 =% ?, - -3 5( 7 H 7
WG '9 C5 7 P 3 $ @ 73
+- 2 0- Y
G 7 C0- Y X 79 @ (II I) 73
$ 7 & 0 7 .G
7' +0 U* .(Toichi ""#) .<
0
, 7$ %f
=$ 7
5+
. Y 5> C-G X 3
: 9 , 5 7 7$
:% %
0 ) 5D TP . () 5 7 K$ F 6 E

0
? * C

+
1$ C+ H9 ?< * C-G W-+ (3
5D J D P - 7% 5 . D
1
E0 ((3
.' 6 - ) ?-
J 3 ( ? -3 :% 73
5 + 56Y

c
(c :) 5
=%
E 7 ?, Y 5+ G
/
'

9 :
+
= >? /;)
6
'
B Z '
(@*
,!
MN Z '
$ Z '
,
,
!,
& ) 8 H'
,42
,4
,!
& ' 8 &)
,4
,
( L ' ) $" 8 &)
,4

8 &)
,

( 6) $" 8 & )
,4
!
&F 8 $"
,
!
( 6) L) 8 &F
,
3
'-F + ] / %
,!
,
$ -
&
' > ZF / /
'
$ T %
,2
& ' 8 H'
,
(#) $" 8 H'
!,!
( 6) $" 8 H'
!,
( L ' ) '-F 8 H'
!,2!
( ) '-F 8 H'
. 5 G '% &* 1D CD 5+ & 5 7 N )
#
(c :) 5 B

=%
E 7 ?, Y 5+ G
- -3 $ &
?0 1) & / G
5+ E -
,]
7 J F
%
,c
(M ) 5 <
J F
%
,eO
( ) 5 <

J F
%
,e"
( $) J F

%
O,O]
( $) J F

%
=% 5+ 5D) ' 1 +

5 7 !
=$
& 89 :H
.(, & 7 %ef u -3 X & 7 (5 >
7 9

6 -G ( <G . 7 0
7 ! C5 =$
5D 7 $ 0* % (3 .7< 7 . D 1S C7+ 70 563 E

5H 7 : 3 B) 5D 5
=0 C 3; 7 7 E
, G . $G 89
0 X =% $ ' 9 B) 7 C
c J . K0 -G
?D 7$ 7 ) '0 10 E- D 9 J 5 +- 7 .7
7 5)
.'% <9 . -G $( G 7
7 D E Y
1 J
7 0 F 7 C. ( !G 7) E

G 7 H 7
5 3 9 -G 5 7 1H0 5S 5Y 7 .-
8' ,

5D . Y( - 7 ' 7 C + )60 $ G C, D

5GS% 0 3 $
. G 9 5D .' ; 5Y 7 X =$ <0
9 K
) K) @% u "e` 1$ G C0 P
=$
-G $( <
.E6- =$ 5 ! 7 C, + 7 7 5)A CK 5 7 O,]
. $( ' X 7 5 F9
&) CP 3,
7 b) NG3 7 =% ( +D B* 7 1 7% ) '
R0 7 G + N0 7
.(` : 5) WG =% 5
. 7A 5>G $ M , C
-G $( 0 -

' $ J H

? -* 7$ 5 1H0 7 =% CX
.(c) 5 =% K 3 '+ - ) J

(` :) 5
E

X
; 7 &; $ =% . H {Y C( 9 ' > 7 7 )
:7 7
) 7 U* C'
7 C5( 0 Y -G X% B * 0 7* 7

) ' ; $ . . D C ; X% ( 6 G
M C < O,fff 7 D J ""O ! / 5 J 9$ u = C(X 7$ G)
.. ; W 7 %`,c
(OgJ 2 August 1993, p. 44)
J . ' 53 J B =$ 7 + 7 $ 0 7%
* 10
CD Y 5 =% 13 -G E 5H 7 5 7 50
13 G
=$ ( . ) $ B .(""# 10 K 5 7 ,] M)
=$ $ K 5 Oce,fff + . + (+ C' B 7$ 9$
7 K WG =% ( @
F C(
-G . + ?
) < ,eff
.NG3
(PIW. 9 May 1994, p. 2)
1$ G 16 5 ! b+ 7$ K ; 56Y
59% 7 0

89 . &3 7 H 7 . E
, 1$ 9 ?
7; C Y B-) G
=% ) 7 -G 5+ M Druzhba ? -3 G B CK )
J ,O +
( )- B 9 . E :% ? =% . Y
$ 7 9G 7 0
89 5 7 U* 7 .(cO) K 5 7 O,O
7% .' 5 G 7 X 3
G ?+ )- 7V Ga = C9*
C ( 1 K$G ( )- K
7+ 70 ' 7 B) 7 7
. ( )- B X . 9 D
1 5 , 7 K+
-
<

o =% '
A 0 C-G $( @ P 3 5 F9
9 :D J 0) % .+
< 3 B- '9 CE

]
-% .*& M =$ 7) 7 D 79 7% C7

! =% J 5(G
m % .7+ @ =$ . &

7 1 C, D
-G $(
Y C 3 5 ?, 7 D
5 + C@0
' &63 @

Y ) ' C. @9 7% 5 .

53

:+ @ )
. G D 7 1 () @

7V 7
=%
.3 @
L6(% A
5 7 7 & J 5D 5
=$ J & 0 7 ! C= , @
<
.-G ? - -3
* 7 ) =% 7 0- ?, 7 D
7V C0 0 b3
P - 9 .X )G G + 7* -0 = C.
L * 1$ ?
K(3 C* 10 ( M 7 + 7 K K+) $( 5
7 .n ... ( E + 1
7 :G$ :D
1 +0 b (
8 ( $ C
.0 ,
> 7 K

+ 7 + 9 7 & 0
1$ ?
C* $ 7 K$ D @ C(Duma)
0 !
7 + B N 0 ' 7 D
:G$ ?
C +0 1 % 7
Pugliaresi and ) 7 + 50 1 9 S * $ 89 =$ d: .F =%

.(Hensel, 1996
563 7 73
-G - 56Y
(3 +0 B) K 3> 1 CP 3 7
7 0 7 C$ G( 5 + 7 + 7 0 9 C7() 7$
3 6( 8 5 7 . - 60 7 +D =$
.?, 7 D
& 3 7 5)
<
% :
=$ , ' C$( & 3 3 K
?< * 0a
M() 7 0 H 7 B) -G $( 7 ' % . =0

=* 7 .X D
) $ =% M> H9 ?< * N =% : 7 (
5 =$ + 5D T 5 @ -G $( 50
M 1H
0 .0
=$ * G F C?, - -3 13
1
C60
7 C. '* 0 ?< * P% :Y% =$ + C K) - ( 9
.K6 - K) .$ E Y
$
?- 1+ 1D CK 9
7 0
5+
?< *
? 7V C

89 5D . G ? =%
.
D
6 9H + =$ ?
D>
." &
Y -+ 2 $/ 6E 6 F
`
1$ $( <$ 7 %#] 7 7 C* G ?< * 1+ K 3> 0
=$
DA 0 C(cc) ""# 1$ %# 5+ C?< * '$
""
$( + - CL , =$ ! <0 =$ '* 1 ?< * 7
. D

5 F9 .G WG 1
K * D
9 D 7 1D 7 C
. 1H +
E+ 7 C5 7 D 5 7$

B* G
7
=% '+ - K* 7% C?, - -3

& 0 5D P 3 F9
C5 7 0 G

Transneft G
! .5
) 0 ?
C. ?, - -3 G 1$ 7 P , * =
Timan 7 +- . - -3 + G
'0*
- -3 . -
7$ +
J . - -3 : B - .Pechora
9 $ , &) 1 .7
3 7 K(3 C+
' J

N 0 .'
G 5 =% J . ?, - -3 7A J 63 P
5( 5 C
-
=% ?, - -3 .7 % $ ?, - -3 .
.9 C'* $ - -3 7
7 C
, =% !
N0 =$ . -
7$ G
3 CE, L < 5 N0 )
( < )G | .. 7$ 5 >
F ) C. B
? $ 50G ' , n* 1 5 C ' 7 -G 7
C 7 +- . ? - -3 :% =$ 5< .'6(% 0
-G
K+ F9 7 $ G( .(c#) ' 5 3 F , 5 ! U

5+ C. ? - -3 : )G 1 % ? =% C1<+ 1H - &'
K

. ( E- =% 13* X
7 =% E

. D
1+ :% . N0
Y . G =$ D
: .0
N0 F 1S C6 89 5a
7 . * 3 (X 3
G ?+) -G Xp , 5 7A & $
5 C9, ? D 563 0 89 G + .

. -3
7 -3 9 G 7 CP , :
> ) .10 7 7
N0 =$ KG)
-3 7 =$ 5 C(c) ?+ 5 D
1+ 10
.9 S 7 E-
e
'4
C9
7 $ A 7 7 C5(G 9 6 563 7
C( D

?< *) . Y . 0 5 0 7 E G H6 . * B 7
3* -G : * =$ .(G . 5D) K Y 5), 5 0 7
@-G @ ( BG 7 B) 7 J X 3
G ) ? =% J E

6
-G E
=$ , 89 D U* ) .P F , 5 ! C.
7 K$ F9 7 J 7
563 J 0
7 ! 7 C(
J c) ? + P
1 0 89 b3 CK*G3 8 ( -G X% P
+ &
J
% J 5 0
:
.
.0 -G (3 0 5-0 J
. D
5) 0 0G ?< * :+ J
5 $ 7$ 2 J
' J G WG 7A <+ . G
J
. % 5 $ 7$ ! C
.
' 7$ H 5 5 % 1$ J
7 7 1D 7 C0

- )> 5 89 B 7 U* 7
e J ` . + J , D
7 K+
) ., =% 9:+ N G
89 &( b(3 1 7 B) 7 .-G 0 (% H J

. =% M> C(X 3
G ?+) , X $ - D

=% K +
X% 7 .
K 5 & ff 9 ) X
1(3 0 C ( 0) . 5D F 7V J $
7 J
7 .F6'
B) 1 5D 9 C
K 5 & ff 7 ? +
K6$ 7 7 J K 5 & #ff J Off J + J K
( 7 & 0
C
K 5 7 f J + ?- C0 -G E
K D>
.5 - P =$ 0
, NG3 19
) @
E
D> M 50 9 0 1 -G ( 1 7 E
7 )
Y 9 13
% .
7 X 3
0- Y K* F' C0 -G

E K* C7( Y ) E

'
9 7$ ?Y 7 .E
, -G ) 7 N< F 7$ 1 &
C'
89 CE

$ - E - 7$ J =% J ,
; 56Y
) =$ K$ CK+ 5H
5+D &G3 13 7 E G 7V
.(c]) E
, ' ? *
"
(3 7 $ =% 5 7

-G $( 9 .$ 1

89 =$ Y .> % 7 C0 .:G 7
=% M> C
E
=$ G* CU 7 ) =() E+ =% &'
> ' E- 7 50 7

7 9 C-G ( E0 ?+ 7 5+ CL * 7 K )

.=*
E
'
5 7 K D E3
H Y % =% . M> 7 9 J F 6 J 0) 5* 7%
, + <0 7V C-G ( 7$ <G 0) ++ % .
()
. % . ( D 'G( C + BG
() 5 5 7 J ' J -G . 7A & $ Y
5D C-G P 3 E- F ' D F9 CE

6
.
'$ J =* 7 ) 7 9 ( 9 5D 5* .
(63 .(c`) .B( 16 5 ! 1G 0- ((3 7 J

5+ 7 7 '3
7 C5 K6
' -G 5 7
.
=% 7 C. + E

Of
* '(
?". 2 :

? *
! G ! E $
%
K C7* 7+0 563 . . -G 23 5 7 =$ ?- '
C * E- =% G E- 5 C. ' C7
$ . C53 P
WG
. $ .
P % C)- 13
$
. 89 Dv K 3> 19 )
7 5+ =% M> &
?- . 7 0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 N0
50G K K D F 9 C< 7A & 3 F =% &* .X 3 -G (
: ' 5 & 3 89 5 B
7 0
CE- 7 D

=$
.7 1
- (G --3 B* >
B-* 7 =$ U( & H 89 : *
C5+
-G ? * 7 . & 3 - E
9 .)- 5 ,
!0 F 5 . 0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 53 '- 90
?- 0) K9 D ( C ') C$ * --3 =$ B-
.5+
)- =$
K
K ?0 ' C)- =$ ?- 0) 9 ' U* P 3 F9
+
--3 1 1D 7 C0 . 9 ? - + W
. )- +
$( : .$% 1
) C)- =$ ?- - 0) Y 7% %
70 )- 5 0) 7 .5 9

D
2 b(3
C7 0 ! 5 . H '9 C)- E
10 - ) =$ K*
C5+
P 3, () @ B-* 7 5 M G3 5
.5+ W-)
)- .:G E
1$ = 0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 7 F6'
K+ 5(G 9 1+
?$
C

<(% X =$ 0) 0 .)-

=$ F !0 COff
N 0
K .() )- 0
, 9
&3
O
1( C7* 7+0 =$ 5 89 8 0

7 F6'
1 7$ C3 G3
K 3 .2< 19 R) C+
B) <( 5 !
5 0 &(
.-G

=$ '
0 K* 0

89 (63 5(G 1+
7 =$ ?- 0)
0 23 5 7 0 ! 5
(
C10 P
=$ )- 5 K K'
% 0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 1'

7 %OO 7 0 ! 5 ""c 1$ G .13 -G 0 E
,

% 7 %c],O 13 -G 7 ' (
Y C13 -G 7 0 X %
=$ .> -G - 7 %#] 7 D 5 89 F .10 P
=$ (
.(BP Statistical Review of world Energy 1997) 10 P

F'
J 0 23 5 7 0 ! J :*$,
5 "`f 1$
7 % f,e 5D 9 C-G 13 -G 7 K 5 & ]],` K0
?- % 5( % CK . ( Y (""c 1$ M) K$ 7 $ 7 D 0 .'%
.( :] 5 ) X 7 %e,` M
9 CK 5 7 ,c =% 5 89
0 NG3 M , C%Oe F6'

.
Y C""c J "`f . G
. 2 7 G ?( =$ B- !0 C 2
> S & H ?
C5 8' -G ( <$ () D 5<
H >- F 7$ 1 C & ( 0
B
NG3 -G E
7 -
%c,` =% -G F6'

. 0 *G3 1D .M()
.""c "ef $
&0* . $ 7 D 0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 7 F6'
BG
5 ? =% C13 -G X% . ?
F C"" J "`f . G
F6'
<' 7 % cc, 5 0
7 F6'
7 .M *
."" 1$ %O],e =%
89 *G3 ) C-G
OO
( :]) 5
0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 @6'
-G X%
( 5 &,)
7
-)
7[$

0

7
"`f
``
c]O
O"#
O,""f
èf
c,]ff
X
#,O
,"
,e
#,
O,O
#O,
F6'

f,
f,]
f,
f,c
, A H.0

(%) MN
"ef
#e
#`c
Oec
,]]c
,Ò
","ff
X
],c
",`
c,O
]",
"e,e
e
F6'

O,
#,`
#,O
,e
,e A H.0

(%) MN
""c
#O
ff
èf
,"f
O,#c
e,]"
X
e
]

"O
]"
"fe
F6'

c,O
`,f
#,`
],"
f,# A H.0

(%) MN
: (
IEA, Energy Statistics and Balances of nom-OECD Countries 1990-1991,
Paris, 1993, and BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, June 1994.
0
9 Y D CD 0
7 D &(
: ' $( $-)
C ) =$ ?- $ C ()
K
0 F 7 .B =% . G 89 563 7 =$ ?- NG3 .8
7 D &( 563 .5+D ) 5 0- Y 56% M() >-
.(O :] 5 ) -G % 7 7 F6'

0G D +$
Oc
(O :]) 5
-G F6'
% 7 7 F6'

7 0 ! 5
7
-)
7[$

0

],`
#O,f
O#,#
,e
c],#
O`,c
"`f
c,]
O",]
O","
#,]
",]
OO,e
"`
],f
#f,O
c#,]
cf,c
c,e
,f
"ef
O,O
##,c
c,e
OO,"
e,O
e,f
"e
O],]
#e,"
ce,O
Of,O
,O
,"
""f
: (
OAPEC, Annual Report of the Secretary General, Various ISSues, and IEA,
Energy statistics and Balances of non OECD Countries 1990-1991, Paris, 1993.
5 7 K
0 23 5 7 7 F6'

G 0
7 . 2 7 G ?( C0- . C5 8' ()
7 =% @$ % 7 J 7 =$ ?-
J 7 7 K* '
G ( :]) 5 (c :]) 5 U* .)- 6'
0
,
'D 7$ 5+ 0
0 7 0
A .5+ 13
) 0

"`c 1$ J -G 0
, 50 5 0 .0
B- %#f
7$ 7

C 0
0 7 5 K*% K*G3 -G 0
' J
0
D 563 .P 3, 23 5 J K6) 0G J
'
=$
.7[$ 7 'D B 0
0 7
O#
(c :]) 5
7 0 ! 5 7
0
,
(5 )
7
-)
7[$

0

Of,f
e,e
e,#
e,"
","f
`,"]
"`f
O,"#
e,O
e,"
","c
","c
",O
"`
Of,O]
e,e"
",]"
f,
f,`
f,
"Ò
e,#]
",`
O,
O,f]
,`"
f,
"`c
e,O`
",e`
O,
O,O
,#]
e,`c
"`#
e,e`
","
O,
,#
`,##
,``
"`
e,e`
",ec
O`,e`
f,ee
,O]
,`
"`]
O,]
",e#
O,`
,f
,#]
,#`
"``
cf,]O
,e"
O,`
,]
,"
",O`
"è
cf,Of
O,OO
cO,`
,
`,ee
f,"
"`"
O","#
O,]
,c
,``
O,#e
f,f
"ef
c#,ce
O,]`
],Of
,#
O,`c
f,Of
"e
#,#e
O,]`
#,"
Of,ef
cf,e
",c#
"eO
#`,ec
O,O
O,"e
O#,
#f,"c
e,è
"ec
#`,ec
O,O
O,"e
O#,`
##,è
O,c"
"e#
#`,ec
O,O
O,"e
O#,`"
##,è
c,O
"e
#`,ec
O,O
#`,"f
O#,]O
#,`c
O,e`
"e]
f,OO
O,O
#`,"
O,]e
c`,#
O,"f
"e`
O,"c
O,O
#`,"
O,]#
c],Of
O,"f
"ee
c,e
O,O
#`,"
O#,c]
c],Of
c,#
"e"
c,e
O,O
#`,"
c],Of
c,e
""f
: (
OAPEAC, Annual Report of the Secretary General Various ISSues, and
IEA, Energy Statistics and Balances of non-OECD Countries 1990-1991, Paris,
1993.

9 C 0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 7 0
P 3
F9
1 C- -G 5) 7 7 0
1 7 % .
D
O
B 23 5 B 7 & 0 7 .0 > E 0

, B
1 1D 7 C0 7 0
7 E G 7 C$( 7 $
()

.A (? ) ) = K $ )- 0
) 7 0
A
56Y
1
7 '
DA C7 0
D =$ 23 5 H $ ?
, .
5 5) 23 5 )- 0
WG 7 F C13 -G 0
0 Y
.() P 3, 5
0 0
I
:
CH
( :]) 5
7
0
,
0 23 5 3 7 0 ! 5
?". 2 : N. CG.
5

7 5) C5+
7 =$ ?- > J X J ?
, 7 $ D
0 )- 5 0) 7 & 0 .9 3 1 + - (3 R) 7
:(O)

+ ?
D6D =$
.$( 0 ! ' =$ 0 M C 0) ?
J
7 0 +
9 =$ K 0 9 C Y 13
0) ?
J O
9 .: +
$ F 1D C.-0 =$ X E- 1 C G
X C(ARIMA) > J ! X 5D CX 7 K$ 1* ?
,
T. D () ? 7 0 X 89 5D .( <+ )
A .G
' C)- =$ ?- DA S( 7$ 10 9$ '
Y 1 ' Y > $ ) 1
C

B(
.(c) K6+
P 3,
Y 7 ' )60 9 C Y .$ 13
0) ?
J c
. Y .0 0 q; 0 X 89 5 .(
X =$ C7 =$ ?- > J 5(G 9 J '' &
+ -
' +
) b3 1 +
.D ?
I M

()
5 7 0 ! 5 7 =$ ?- =$ '+- $ C
< @(<(3 X
.(#) 0 23
50 X K+D K( 5( 7 =$ ?- > X 1H0 7% 5 + K
5
("`f) D 9 7 5 5 ) .("]]) &
@ ) M C<
. S -3 0 X ' 1 ( -3 5
O]
CK<
i % ?- 7 B 7 G 7'
7 9 X 9

, N
C5 ! - 5
G ?
C+
0 7 ?
F
. 0 b+
7$ ' m0[ C7 ) ' = , .70 7 < & X 7
: F C 3 Y +0 ' , ? S ?-
.' b3 7 P
B :- & ' J + 7 ) D 0
:DD 0 2 ) D , 70 5
++ P
7 P
7 . G

!+ M & 50 9
5 A) 70 U( C7 $ 9' =% ') 5( C(T) . G 563
@ H6 .7
X % ' 5( CKH & 7 9 .7
(50G
D & 7 Y( C1H ( M B & $
0 7 )
: 5 J DD M J +
0 7$ m0 7 .K<-
5D Y 60 7
C S 5 0 89 0* %
. (+ P =$ 0
, 53 7 5
?-
-.
13
B C 5 b3 ?- =$ 7 F6'
<( 5 0
E ?
C

13
1 1 ."" J "`f . G -Y

0
, C 2 % 5D T' E0 7 0 ! 5 7 *
.M0 b3 T7$ 7 K6 0 7 "7" U-( $ .n ...)-
13
23 5 GG3 . ,
(3
B 7 & 0

0
, 7 N B C5 ) 13
53% X 5 1 1D 7 C7
.. 3 9 )
5 $ 0 C*(OLS) 0 P Y( 0 13
X 1+ 1 )
F6'
% 9 B Y .& ( 0
? D, KG C' (3 Y 7$
!) ' C7 0
5D .E
10 F6'
9 Y C 5 7
.b3 F6'
2 % :7 13
B C53 =%
?-
.** 3 1) ! ), 7 C(#) 1) 0 + (# :]) 5 7

- Durbin - Watson <(% =% "DW" C 50 =%
. %E 6 + 6. > F
) D,( 6 %*
.R , + $ , 7` D & '` D ^" Y' (T 8 test ) t E
O`
**
7

- & 5 ? 0 N0 0 3 9 7 @ 1
7 .***
2 &$* 3 @
1 F C(<+ X 13
$) = ,
.(E '* 0
G 0 ( ) .

- (LM)
(# :]) 5
7 =$ ?- +
7 0 ! 5
7
-)
7[$

0

J f,]
J f,#
J f,O"
J f,f
J f,fe
J f,f"
(O,")
(O,f)
(#,])
(,#f)
(,)
(c,#)
f,
f,fO
f,O`
f,f`
f,Oe
f,fc
(c,])
(,"`)
(f,O)
(c,])
(O,e)
(O,#)
f,"
f,ef
f,`]
f,"#
f,`
f,Ò
#
(e,c)
(Oc,)
(c,f)
(O,O)
(",f)
f,""c
f,""ec
f,"#c
f,"``"
f,"``"
f,""e
O,#
O,
,#
O,
O,`
O,c
,
",e
],#
e,c
c,O
,c
Y
7$ K D 0 'H0 C0) 5 60 B 7 2< U*
P =$ C7 0 ! 5 7 0
=% ?- -
7 U* . G(
J f,fe 7 L C + 7

B) J f,# M
C? +
=$ ?- 7 9 2< 8'
G .(7$ -
J f,O" =% . 0
5 0

7 & 0 . 0
:% 1
J 23 5 J 7
?
9 CB-( 5 NG3 P
$ )
0
, HG C23
E* E- =$ 1H S 5 J 0
, Y B .<* 60 89 %
.("`" F) 5G
, + F =% 13
M> ) J
C . % J 5 J 53 =% ?- 7 (# :]) 5 7
M
(+ P =$ 89 -
.% =% 5( $ 9 + 89 ?

. *+ + ^ ? *+ + , > % &

%
Oe
***
89 .f,Oe Cf,fO -) u CP 3 5 7 G B Cf,c

5 ! S 7 D % CL D J 53 =% ?- J <* +
.. * 7 . * (3 5+ 5<
0 7 0 !
7
)
K$ N G 7 ? C5+
7 =$ ?-
7$ . 7s
0) 7V 1D 7 C+
?-
0) 7 $ B* B .* 7
M() G3 9
7 $ =$ 0
5 C. * =$ 0 7
7 $ =$ K $ 7 7 Y .5+ ) 0
,
E- 7$ X 3 ' C 1 5D, 9

89 7 A
.

*
.
89
0 5D C* 5 0 7 0 K
0 ' )- D Y 0
P
C)- 3
$-+ - P
C@ 0- 2
? K0+ K0}- 5 5H .$
5 0 )- 0
C+
5 ) . 7 0
M() 0 9 C7
< 7 Y =$
K 70 70 79 7 7 C+
5+ ) =$ ?- 9 E

7 0 7 DA ', C' 5 5
> 5'
7 7 1 7% CK
K
<
9
D6D 7 9 . 0) G
&
F =$ d: . 3 3 P +
BG ) 7 0
, 79
C(NG3 -
BG ) M() G3
.(NG3
>'
8. .
. ?- () B
M 7, CM() K+D K- 7 F6'
-
=$ ?- 19 7 M() - U( 1D 7 .)- 13

9 2 7 & 0 7 . 0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 C7
$ =$ d: C) ? ) > $ @) 7 CM() - 0 !+
:' DA 7
.-G 0 E
+ ?
CP Y ' ) M() 7 J
K DA D> M , C53 B $ . * @( M() 7 J O
.7 F6'
b3 5+ 5 ?- =$ K )
.)- 1$ 0 ( =$

D @ M() 7 J c
O"
P =$ 7 0 ! 5 M() E0 H ' 6D L - &

0 0
0 ) = $ T7$ =% '
+ .0
() . CY -G 7 . - ' ( -) .
0) . 0 -
i % ' ! (7 7[$) D $ ..

.NG3 M()
* 89 .7$ 79 M() * ( :]) 5 7
H ' 5D 3; .%e J 7 L 50 B) C<G H ' 5D
.%O, J , 7$ 50 B) <
( :]) 5
M() *
-
M
50
NG3
-

BG
Offf J ""O
Offf J ""O
Offf J ""O
Off J Offf
Off J Offf
Off J Offf
#
O
,
O ]
= , $
D $
. 0 0

0 1* = , $ 7 H6
.7 7$ -
1* D $ C -)
)- . )- + E ( + .$ 7 3A : (
.
?". ;
7 ) .NG3 BG T7 0
, 7 =$ J J 0) 0
0
, 89 !0 C7 0
, 9 7 0 ! 5
K + C*G3 23 5 S 7 0
7% 5 .Xp 0G G . *
0

( C"e] 1$ 13 -G 0
9 B .0 0
,
76$ F9 .)- 0 0
, 7$ K (G 5 1 7% C5>
5 )-
7 % U* S 7 @ ' .7 0
7A * K K+0 7
7 3
7 ' 0 L6( F C 1 -3 7 K 3
7 0 !
cf
5 7 7 W% 1$ 9 D 50 .-G ( 7 '<$ NG3
.() 5+
13 -G 0
= 5 8 7A C)-
0
, DA 7 J > . 563 J 7 0
7 N G
C , -
5 7
.< 5

- K K DA DA
% C13 -G 0
KD K++ K 0
79
7 5 N G C ) 0
* (] :]) 5 7
T7 0 ! 5 7$ 7 P 3 . 9 ."" J "" . G 563 7
7 1$ 3 = F C-G <$ -
' 5
&
= , $
5 )- 13
-* &
(7 7[$) P 3, $ C(Off) 0)
&
(3 C
9
7 K6 (` :]) 5 7 .
.5(G 9 '%
(] :]) 5
P
=$ 7 0
*
NG3
BG
8 !
8 2
8 !
8 !
8 2
8 !
!
!

!
!

,
67
67
AB
!,
67
67
7
(` :]) 5
7 =$ ?- 0) 9

7 0

2 0 : *
(E
6)
R/ R/
R/ & - 8 R/ N

Q/E R/
R/ %
Q/E %
R/ Q/E
Q/E Q/E
Q/E & - 8 R/ N

R/ & - 8 % N

Q/E & - 8 % N

R/ & - 8 Q/E N

Q/E & - 8 Q/E N

c
(Q :P)
(7( 7() & .
7
-)
7[$

0

,`
`,
O,
c,#
O,c
]`,
""O
],f
`,O
O,#
,f
O],
`c,]
""c
],c
`,c
O,]
],c
O],"
ef,c
""#
],`
`,#
O,"
`,`
O`,`
e`,c
""
`,f
`,
c,O
",
Oe,]
"#,
""]
`,c
`,]
c,
Of,
O",]
Of,"
""`
`,]
`,]
c,
Of,
cf,]
Of",c
""e
e,f
`,e
#,O
Oc,
c,]
O],"
"""
e,c
`,e
#,
O,
eO,e
OO,O
Offf
e,
`,e
#,e
O`,O
c#,O
Oc#,c
Off
e,e
`,`
,O
O",e
c,`
O##,
OffO
",f
`,]
,
cO,e
c`,c
O#,
Offc
",O
`,
,"
c,"
c",
O],"
Off#
",#
`,#
],#
c",O
#f,"
O``,"
Off
",]
`,#
],e
#O,e
#O,"
O"f,`
Off]
",`
`,O
`,O
#],`
#,f
cf#,#
Off`
",e
`,
`,`
f,"
#`,c
ce,`
Offe
",e
`,f
e,
,
#",]
cc#,
Off"
","
],e
`,]
]f,#
O,
cf,c
Off
cO
( :P)
(E(. 7() .0 .
7
-)
7[$

0

,`
`,
O,
c,#
O,c
]e,#
""O
],f
`,O
O,#
,f
O],
`,
""c
],c
`,c
O,]
],c
O],"
eO,"
""#
],`
`,#
O,"
`,`
O`,`
"f,e
""
`,f
`,]
c,O
",
Oe,]
"",O
""]
`,#
`,`
c,
Of,
O",]
Of`,e
""`
`,`
`,e
c,e
O,"
cf,]
O],`
""e
e,
`,"
#,O
Oc,
c,]
OO],
"""
e,
e,f
#,
O,
cO,"
Oc],e
Offf
e,"
e,f
#,e
O`,O
c#,c
O#e,
Off
",#
e,
#,
O,
cO,"
O],#
OffO
",e
e,
,]
cO,e
c`,
O],`
Offc
f,c
e,O
],f
c],f
c",#
O",
Off#
f,`
e,O
],#
c",]
#,c
cf`,"
Off
,O
e,O
],"
#c,
#c,#
cO,"
Off]
,`
e,O
`,#
#`,e
#,]
c#,`
Off`
O,O
e,O
`,"
O,#
#`,"
c]`,f
Offe
O,`
e,O
e,c
`,c
f,
ce",e
Off"
c,O
e,O
e,"
]O,
c,
##,c
Off
cc
(B :P)

(7( ) 0 .
7
-)
7[$

0

,`
`,
O,
c,#
O,O
]`,
""O
],f
`,O
O,#
,f
O,e
Ò,#
""c
],O
`,c
O,]
],c
O],#
``,e
""#
],
`,#
O,e
`,
O`,f
ec,#
""
],e
`,
c,f
e,]
O`,`
ee,]
""]
`,f
`,]
c,O
",]
Oe,O
"c,`
""`
`,O
`,]
c,#
Of,
Oe,e
"e,
""e
`,#
`,]
c,]
O,#
O",#
Ofc,O
"""
`,]
`,]
c,e
OO,c
cf,
Of`,"
Offf
`,`
`,]
c,"
Oc,
cf,e
OO,"
Off
`,`
`,
#,
O#,"
c,`
Oe,f
OffO
`,`
`,#
#,c
O],
cO,
OOc,
Offc
`,`
`,c
#,
Oe,f
cc,
OOe,#
Off#
`,`
`,
#,e
O",
c#,#
Occ,"
Off
`,]
`,f
,f
c,f
c,#
Oc",
Off]
`,
],e
,O
f`,f
c],
O#,O
Off`
],c
],]
,#
`,O
c`,
O,f
Offe
`,O
],#
,]
],#
ce,`
O`,f
Off"
`,f
],O
,"
#",`
c",e
O]c,O
Off
c#
( :P)

(E(. ) 7 .
7
-)
7[$

0

,`
`,
O,
c,#
O,O
]`,"
""O
],f
`,O
O,#
,f
O,e
`#,
""c
],O
`,c
O,]
],c
O],#
ef,O
""#
],
`,#
O,e
`,
O`,f
e],#
""
],e
`,
c,f
e,]
O`,]
"O,]
""]
`,
`,]
c,O
",]
Oe,O
"e,]
""`
`,c
`,`
c,#
Of,
Oe,e
Of#,]
""e
`,]
`,e
c,]
O,#
O",#
Of,`
"""
`,e
`,e
c,e
OO,c
cf,
O`,c
Offf
e,f
`,"
c,"
Oc,
cf,"
OO#,c
Off
e,O
`,"
#,
O#,"
c,e
Oc,`
OffO
e,#
`,"
#,c
O],
cO,`
Oc",]
Offc
e,]
`,"
#,]
Oe,
cc,`
O#`,"
Off#
e,e
`,e
#,e
O",`
c#,`
O],
Off
e,"
`,e
,
c,
c,e
O],]
Off]
",f
`,`
,c
f",]
c],"
O`,
Off`
",
`,`
,]
`c,c
ce,
Oe,`
Offe
",O
`,]
,"
e,c
c",c
O"],c
Off"
",c
`,
],
,#
#f,
cf`,#
Off
c
(@ :P)

(7( E(.) * .
7
-)
7[$

0

,`
`,
O,
c,#
O,O
]],"
""O
],f
`,O
O,#
,f
O,`
`,e
""c
],O
`,c
O,]
],c
O],O
`],]
""#
],
`,#
O,e
`,#
O],`
e,#
""
],`
`,
c,f
e,c
O`,
e,]
""]
],"
`,]
c,
",
O`,
e",`
""`
`,
`,]
c,c
",e
Oe,f
"c,c
""e
`,c
`,]
c,#
Of,#
Oe,#
"],]
"""
`,#
`,]
c,]
O,
Oe,e
"",e
Offf
`,#
`,
c,`
O,"
O",#
Ofc,
Off
`,#
`,#
c,e
OO,"
cf,f
Of],
OffO
`,#
`,c
#,f
O#,f
cf,]
Of",`
Offc
`,c
`,
#,
O,f
c,O
Oc,
Off#
`,
`,f
#,O
O],
c,"
O],
Off
`,f
],e
#,c
O`,f
cO,]
O","
Off]
],e
],]
#,#
Oe,f
cc,c
OOc,c
Off`
],]
],#
#,
O",f
c#,
OO],`
Offe
],c
],O
#,]
cf,
c#,"
Ocf,O
Off"
],f
],f
#,`
c,
c,`
Occ,`
Off
c]
(S :P)

(E(. E(.) * .
7
-)
7[$

0

,`
`,
O,
c,#
O,O
]`,`
""O
],f
`,O
O,#
,f
O,`
`c,#
""c
],O
`,c
],]
],c
O],O
è,"
""#
],
`,#
O,e
`,#
O],`
e#,O
""
],`
`,
c,f
e,c
O`,
e",c
""]
`,f
`,]
c,
",
O`,
"#,
""`
`,O
`,`
c,c
",e
Oe,f
"e,`
""e
`,#
`,`
c,#
Of,#
Oe,#
Ofc,c
"""
`,]
`,e
c,]
O,
Oe,"
Ofe,O
Offf
`,e
`,e
c,`
O,"
O",
Oc,#
Off
`,"
`,e
c,"
OO,"
cf,
Oe,`
OffO
e,f
`,`
#,f
O#,f
cf,e
OO#,#
Offc
e,
`,`
#,
O,
c,
Ocf,c
Off#
e,
`,]
#,c
O],c
cO,O
Oc],
Off
e,O
`,]
#,#
O`,
cc,f
O#O,e
Off]
e,O
`,
#,]
Oe,`
cc,e
O#",`
Off`
e,
`,#
#,`
O","
c#,]
O],"
Offe
e,
`,c
#,e
c,
c,#
O]#,O
Off"
e,f
`,O
#,"
cO,O
c],c
O`,`
Off
c`
?". 2 : N.

@BB T @
d:D
<
C13
X b<(3 K J B- J . H > 7
89 ?( ) Y 7 $ F9 .9 ( * =$ 9$ CF 7
- * N C)- 0

C5+
M() 50 5D T*
.F , H 53 b( 1H C)- 0 E
. Y C<
F6'
=$ D> 1D 7 C23 5 -G <$ 1 =$ K K DA D> F 5
.)-
5+ ) =$ ?- 0) b63
C(#) 1) 0 C , 563 7
:]) 5 = (e :]) 5 7 d: 5 1) , 89 'H COff J ""O . G
=$ +
?- + 7 C"" J "`f . G 7$ 60 13
.(c
8> C* N =$ 9
89 .9

563 7 7
H6 N0 F9 .5+
) F6'
=$ D>
3 Y Y
.'% 7 7
5 89
2 . 7 ' 7 .5+ 3 1+
. % 7 13
[ CK
=$ ?- WG F B
C? , WG 0 + 53
U* ) . ) =$ ?- BG 1D 7 C& 50 :
C5+ 5'

. Y( J 0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 J 53 =% ?- 7 5)
& 0( '0 C - .
.) .$ ?
F ?
7 CH
.23 5 53 P

WG 6 !0 B- 9 C53 Y M B
X 13
.X * . +0 7 G A
W * ' 5(
=$ 50 8 $ C5+ ) =$ ?- ?
Y =$ 0 53 !+ + 7 * 76( 7$ D . 2 %
Y
89 7 D C? + P =$
i % 53 !+ . + 60 7 ' T5)
.5+
. * + !G ' 7 7 J 5, . (+ J
- . 7 A- 7 =$ ?- . 7 7 0 P =$ B) 7
9 C)- 13
.:G . @( 2 WG 7 0 9 CM()
A- 50

) F6'
50 7 0 C.
.:G . B- !0
C ) =$ 1')G% 5+ 7'
8 J =% J !0 .
$ 7
.1' 3
ce
=$ K K DA D> &

J 0
=%
J 5+ ) =$ ?- 7% CKD
7 & 0 .5, 7 K$ 7 0
3 .+
)-
. 7 W
5
7 0
. % CA- 5 7 =$ ?-
5+ % .5+ ) 13
.:G . =% M> 7 0
WG 7, C++ ,
F 7 Y 7 .)- K6'
5)
=% 7 1'
13
7 7 '

7 0) S 7 CM 5 ?- ?+ & =% M> 7 ) 0
B 7
K D, 50G .)- 0
WG 1'' 50 5
7 '
1 +
. 0
, WG B & '
) =$ ?- NG3 =% M> 7 0
WG 7 9
B D TKDD
C 0
, . D 7 ) 2 7 G ?( WG 7 7% .5+
7 0
WG N 7$ H NY .5D 5
=$ 5 ,
@* 9
F6'
7 C. G F 563 %`f
) G BG 7 H 7 7V CK
0
0 5D COff 1$ 5 &0* 7 D =% 23 5 N0 7
K
5) 50 0
, . * % . . 0
J 7 L C7 =$ ?- M
50 A 0 7V (D
?
)
.5 89 1H0 %]
?- 7 U* ' C 3 Y =$ ?- +
0) $ 1S CK0
B 7 .( -) $) 7 0 ! 5 B . . 7 B) [ 7 =$
&63 =% K

G 9 B .5+
?-
E0 ' G
C P
5D . D 5 0 K C5 89 0
, 53 7 5 =% ?-
C+- Y 0- C)- 1$ 1 C
. 0
.(B 5D)
.0 -G
'4
! 5 7 =$ +
?- + @+ - 7$ 1 K 5(G 9 )
? % C+
7$ . =$ F $ ) . 0 23 5 7 0
E0 CG3 9

0
563 7 . Y 7 $
)- E0 5<
7 .> $ : V ) C)- 0

M()
u K Y 7 =$ ?- ED > 7V CN Y 7 D ' C+0 .
CM() 5D T. D 5 0 B*3 5+
7 =$ ?- P
7% % . 0(
.)- 0
Y C< , 5 ) 1 C?- =$ DA

N
c"
9 7 .'
V
i % ' b3 7 C. & 3 D
(0 89 5D
7 + C. H ' =$ 1 + 5+
E) > : %

, 9 7 1 E-
'H E 0 C<+

E- 1 =$ C -3, U*
.E
++ >
W(

0* =% > 7 $ 5 9 5
CE
=% K*%

J )- 13
.:G 5 1+ 7 E+ 7 > 89 5 . +
TKD .K6+
5 89 )- 7 ' 7 7 7 J 5+ W-)
7'
&)
% CK0G 7
5+
7 =$ ?- 7
*
+0

X' 7 TKDD .H
F6'
7V C@$ 9 =$ )- 7
1+ E - 7$ F C - 60 : % =$ 23 5 $
) )- 0

7 CB-( 5 *G3 0
, :+% ..:G D 5 )- 13
=$ B
.5+
) )- M 1)G 7$
i % G

5
3' . F
."" J "`f . G
=$ 5(G 9 $
.0 0 . Y & 0
.b (3 M0 7$ 7 K6 7 0 C7 F6'
% =Qt
C 0 b (3 M0 7 G -
9 C7 < 0
= Pt
.F S B* 1
. 0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 M() - 5D GDP
23 5 7 0 ! 5 J +
G 7$ 7 F6'
B 1 )

<( + C 5
<( :
< ( D6D 7 J 0
S 5 ' )- +0 <( C(F ) -G . ( 0 5 H
(OECD :! ) "" J ""f . G 7$ M() 7 0 H :*$,
E - 7$ '$ ( + 7 0
A (3 .)- 7$ . (
. ( 0 5 H A C(G) F , H A (3 (
.(F ) -G
0 7
C60 & ( 0
C 2 V +0

b3 :) M
0 M() + .$ (% 7 '$ ( + CF6'

.$ (% 7 C 0 + E ( 7$ . ( (. 0 CH A
. + E ( 7$ . ( <(p
#f
7 '(
(. 2.'
% )
?
M *3
3 -G $( 5 C23 7 -G X% : K$ 7
3 7 D 1S
.X G NG3 <' - 5*G C0 )- 7 K K ?0
S 5 N0 X% 5D T 7 K$ @ . 3,
( '
5<' 1+ C 'G NG3 C0 -G 9 .$% CF , :*$,
.$( 5 ' * < 0 C)- 2 C+
0 E
F , H DA B ' T7
< 7 - , 89 E )
? C-G 5 ()

P Y 'D C-G .
C- -G $( )$ @
G ) ' C-G <$ =$ $ . 7 '$
..
0 - ' .0
S '0
Y (&D F ) 0 -G X% 7 F , 5 ( 7 & 0 7
1$ %#f,` =% 0G 1D C(-G 0
' +

9 ) "e 1$ %Oe,]
O#,e =% ,` 7 H . $ D 5 X% BG . G F 563 .""#
X 9 7 8 ( 1 M 1 .(%]c,#
M) 13 -G 7 K 5 7
K 5 7 O,` =% c, 7 . G 563 BG + J + 7 13 7 :
J
=% %#O," 7 0 ( 7 F , ( F 0G C(%],] 9 ) . M)
.. . G % O,
6 23 5 CK $ F , 5 7 =% ?- N 0 +
0)
J
7%
D ) .+
563 ?- 7 7
CK( (3
7 O 7 BG
13 F , -G =$ ?- 7 J
F %
% 5
X% BG 7 B) [ 7 .Off 1$ K 5 7 c#, =% C"" 1$ K 5
7 M C'
G . G 563 CK 5 7 c`,] =% Oe,]` 7 13 -G 7 F ,
C* 0 E
7 B-
J @ =$ 23 5 J F , 5
.+ 0
563 '- B)
C' + X . S 9 C-
?
=$ E
, =$ -
, E -G . -
B
< )- -
u ""# 1$ G .. D P 3 E- ; V K +
#
K6 e 7$ < % 7 CK 5 #,feO -
E F , 5
X 3 7 -
, E 5 K K6 `# C-
N K
K6 `] C
E ? K K6 c#] C+ K K6 ` CF ,
.() . K K6 C6 K
CF , 13 =$ K6+
?- 7A <G 0) 1S C
. 89 1S
1'<0
++ + *G3 7 0 C- E+ 7 0 H :*$ 7V
F 7 9 D, , .. -3 =% -G E
1'(( * 0 7 0 C-G
7A 7 C- ' -G <0 =$ $ 'V 0 1 F , 5 7
' G D 0
-G <0 7, C+
+0
C 5H K B* Y + 1 C5 F 0 -
-G $( ( - Y* B .

EG3% C() . :

. m 3 ( % CK K0* @ J b (3 @ =$ 23 5 J F , 5
)- P
7 5), @*G3 CE
'(( =$ KHG X . 7
.=(), =% . &' 0
L&
>
7 1 3 - N0 K F , '' *0 0a
.-G <0 X P
0
, 7 5 =$ K K DA D + F B C'$
K e J c 7 L 0
, 7 .
5 ) =% . -* H 5 (
) 0 Y 5) K<
7 M 0
9 C5 K Of J ] 7 K C5
1H0 U
5 @V 0
I P
NG3 1S .""f !-
S /?
T5 $ .$ =% 0) L , 89 0 . H 5+
L , E+ 0 -G
W-) LG C7 + C(3(3 $ E- C - ?+ G NG3 '
@ K+Y 7 7 0 C5 7 0 (X 3
G ?+) , X $
H6 .. 0
,
B & B-
1 F , H 5 7 .0
9 G 0 1 J 5 b( X & +
5D J 0
, =$ HG .0 E - 7
.E
+
7* 0
,
=$ HG
9+ J F , *0 H 19 E
M 0
5 b3
&+
=$ F , 5 EG 7A +$ F9 5 " :@ + J "" 5 /7

X - E
'0- 9 CE
+
E+ 0[ Cb( X
:@ + B* 9 B F , :*$ 50 G H 19 U* ." Y
#O
& J A- J 5 C@ N0 0

7 - 7 1S
7 N G 7 7 7 .. E
-% ) 3
C B) B
+ J ?- N 0 70*3 9 $ J 0 7$ 56+
)- -G B
NY C 0 ' ( H C-G <0 =$ 0 5 7 D

.-G <0 ? 7 '$ ? Y 7 -G E
$ H

- + 3 7$ 0 =% -G <$ =$ $ 9 P 7, N0
.(O) -G E

.-G E
7$ K + C"" / C! 7 )- (
1$ 563 K 5 7 `,O =% -G =$ 0 ?- BG 7 + 9 B)
-G 1H0 7 =% + ."" 1$ K 5 7 ]",] 7 7 0 C""]
. 7$ 0) 5H F CF , X 3 7 A
J ?- 9 -Y @m [ J
7 ,c 9 ) . C""] 1$ K 5 7 #c," =% F , X 3 -G X
.""# X% P
7$ K 5 7 O, C"" X% P
7$ K 5
7 W
50 '% C' 5 7 . E 7 Ha
7 C'% 0) . . B F
23 G 7 CB)
.@% 9 &+% 0 E

C5 7
G6
> '$ P 3
563 7 2< 89 A )
N0 X% BG 7 $ G(
0) .""# - / C7 9 +
7 5 X B &) 7 C10 : <
J F , X 3 J 5
% 7 %cf '% u % CF , X 3 7 7 9 C
.
+ F , X 3 -G X% 7
0) .(c) H X 3 -G X%
H) ""# 1$ 563 K 5 ]ff,fff 7 K C"" 1$ 563 K 5 eff,fff
C(K 5 cff,fff) 2 7 . 89 1H0 A 7 H 7 .( :` 5
"f,fff 5 C(K 5 ff,fff) C(K 5 ff,fff .
.(K 5 ef,fff) C(K 5
#c
( :`) 5
"" 1$ F , X 3 -G X%
<
(0- Y ( 5<
K* CK 5 &)

3
4

#(> & K
4,
!,
!,4

!,
!,
!,
* '

!,44
!,!
!,
'
2
2

F
#(> & K $

24
3
0

3
!
+
2
4
3
F
2
!

&a
4
4
!!!
&
2

2

,

2
32
3
'
2!
22

& B
3
44
43
'N
$ -
> D
& H CF , X 3 -G X% .
< ?
, 7
WG 1
. C?< * NG3 5D T(X 3
G ?+) Xp , 5
J cf J K + C.
-G X ) 7 %`f ' 5 + Y
=$ - ' C* 0
Y ?
19 .* %#f
=$ =$ -G 0
NG3 1S .@6Y
8 - -G & 7 C50 5
NG3 $-
-G 7
i % J D 5< 5 K cf 7 D J '

.@
G ) . K ++ C 5 , X 5

, G
G 5 C""# J "" . G 7$
F ! 7
> $ )
&6 G 7
D . P . $
- &
.W $ !, & $' M S
.Kleinwort Benson, World Oil Report, February 1995. :(
##
6D
89 563 *G3 (0 G 0
) 8' -
9 B .(#) %c
M C-G 5 5 #,` =% ],#c 7

C 9 H 0, D6D 5 E - 13
B
=% NG3
K E+ -
P C+, G 5<
=$ 3
5 L , E+ U( C-G $( =% . H 19 Y .&
0
, 7 70 P
$ G :+% =$ K

0 (X 3
?+) = ,
.. 3,
563 D <' + - 5*G @++ 7 9 C.<

G C DA =$ D, U* 7 5 + E- - 0
) 0 -G X D ? + =% BG 1D C G( 7 ? + X 7

E$ =% .E
@$ $ -G X 3
% - B .("") *
.. X &
C cff =$
5( C W) . ; 7 -G X 3
% U
H9 (
, 5 7$ :Y
7 C ,fff =% ' : E$
$ ) ( 13
7; 1 C- W) D C< D &
1 R 1 + CF
23 13
a ( <0 ( 89 .<$
5+ C(K 5 #O,fff @% + M) Auger 5+ - 5
X 76+ 7 B) C(K 5 ff,fff @% + M) Mars
.""] 1$ '
(3 C5 J F , X 3 J X . . 1H0
/7 ' G .+- 89 . ?
U* 7D 9 N 0

.2
5+ 13* - 7$ Norsk Hydro 9 F
-G $ *
e @) X 3
6 + - 1 G$* =% P CTroll 5
9 C G - =% . 89 9 F
M0 .
5) -+ 5 7 #Of @ 7 7 0 C5 7 DA 5+ 9 - . =%
B- 0 - 1 3* . 89 .() 5+ - $
c
@
G 5+ -G 7 . G + C . -3 1 NG3
!G 13
5 ) 7 ) F =% &* .. E- &
7
.. 5 + '6D 7 CE v
5 + (3 C-G 7 =$ D0 P 3, : 7 0 2 B-*
( G WG =$ ?Y J @
G ) J =0
.0 G ' -G
=$ Statoil 5
)0 ) .'$ < 5 0 CD
#
ff 'G u C7- fc,fff ' 5 CN S, .0 -G 6) 7 7D :
. 7
.""` &( B D C""] ' 3 =% 7) P% 53 7 H 7
-G + ) '3
? =% C73 7 X 5 ) 89 13

7 13 -G 7 : X% K6+
7) 79 50 7 B) 7 .13
7) 7 + 7 .3* 5 + 7 & ?0( $ K(3 C5
-3 7 & 3 7 J P 3 +- =% 5+ 7 5+ ? * 0 C5 + 7 ? +
13
1 R 7 .+ -G 6) 50 =% 7 0 J <
? S Schiehallion 7 ' 5+ 7 X 3
-G 3 u G 73 G
K
.K 5 `f,fff J f,fff 9 ) % )- C6
-G F6'
50 NG3 + C-G =$ ?-
5 7 K$ K* F , @
7 C(OECD) M() 7 0 H 5 '
)- % =%

( 13
7; B< 1 U( .""# 1$ %#O,O =% "`c 1$ %#,
: ' v Y

, ( 9 K Y U( C: ' W-) )-
N0 ' N 0 @
i % C5+ W-) <
) 9 5 -G 7 1S ..
.5+
5
5 :
> 7 !< ""# 1$ B-
=% ) F6'
5 ( 5
C1' '
$( - =$
. 3
+ + 89 $ . 7 K6 ef P

B K+- J 50G 50 :D, 89 .(7 ) , W
7
=$ -
- + .10 7 3
X J G
3 < '
7 7 J 53 W J 1'
7 0
((3
%f =% 1D COfff 1$ % =% C""e 1$ %O J
89 C10 7
C
7 $ 89 &' 7 ff 7 D G +G ) .Offc 1$
=$ : .""e 1$ 0 16 P 3 $ ((3
.
c`f,fff =% G < '
$ % 5( 7 B) 7 C)-
.(]) Offf 1$ .
Off,fff =% 7 9$ 5( 7 COffc 1$ 5
< ' .
7V C 3

$
1) , 89 v* 1S
A
.L , E+ E
K ) 7 CX G 7
E- =$
89 13
J + J -
1) C) A

.-G E
1 K , 9 5 &
CB

#]
NG3 =% < -G + =$ '

5 '* ?< * 7 & 0 7
0 1 <' F'
7
i % CD 13 -G 0
10 NG3 1S .?-
5 0
,
0 C-G + =$ * G ?< * 7, CNG3 '
C5 K ef 7 D =% ( . :D
) M() 7 0 H
< ( 'H B . 5 53 ) B P
F I E 1
5 + ( 9 .?< * 7 N G . 0 F9 U( C* +

:"" / . ( F , . +0
0 ?< * N =% A CD 563 13 -G 0
NG3 B
0
,
$ .?- NG3 1D 7 CNG3
.(`) 0
7 <
!
=$ C?< * 7 N G . 0 < (
' > F , H =$ 1'9 $( 7 ' 7 ) "`c 1$
-G ( ?( + .E
, 5 Y =% . P ) 'H 7 C
C'
G -G $( =$ 6(% 3 C
5 < =$ 19 DA
J

B* =% * C 0
, =$ DA
5 (, ?$6
R' =% P C& H Y F 5 19
C. G F J 0 )
.-G E
F ,
. -G CF , G b+ + '
0 . 9H F9 7
i%
) . 0 -G

0 -G @
7 F 1S C 0 5
:*$ G 1 1 + 7 J )- $( 5 1 J . 9H F
() 1'( 7$ W 1' ) 7 7 CH + - E
F ,
.$ -
7 .$ K$ 5 +
E
, W
9 - 8' <'
$ ' 1 . E
, 89 .$ P 3 0
M
9 0
F
C13 -G
5 U( .0 0 1H =% K*% C7 * 5 7
. & -, 89 7 M C 0
I =, =$ H 9 J $ G( J F ,
: % 5 + ( 9 . -G 0
F , 5 5 )
F'
-G 1 5D D6D u 0 . @0 1 M -G 1 7%
U( C; E
, 0 1 F =% G* .1 5 10 : = 50G
1 5D 0
=%
3 7 J +
M J ) E
, @0 1 M -G 1
.(e) K0 @0 1 M -G
#`
K * D P + 89 7, E

P + ' C 0
, A
7$ F , 3 +

6

. E
7 . !
=$ 0
I + 5* -0 '
1 C13 -G 7 5 7 c 7 D F' .9 ( @$ M L * C'$
K 9 0
+ C-
, E + ? S -
N 5 K '%

5+ 13
7 & 0 7 .Brent 13 0
!
=$
7D . =% @ -
b) C.
. ( @% NG3 C. 3,
C. -G ?< * . % 7$ 3> ( 0 =% *% .1
:"
)" J (+ .P 3 & -, -G B 7 7 )
C((3 1 0( D 7; ( 70 1 E
0
1+ $ 7
J . (+ S . (+ . ( J E
DA =$ . G . )
C 13 0
=$ d: 0
7 7 5D
> M $-
7
+ $ ( F . + K

9 $ 7 +G( 1$ F
?$6 & -, N0 1) :% P =% P C. . ( + 0

.(") E

-G -G 9 T 0
I P 3, 5 0 7 7D =$ 5 + 9 !G E-
.West Texas Intermediate -
!
? S

7$ . 7 m0 C""#
/5 C!
7 7 ( (
.
3 '9 CF , 5 - -G @

, 5
+ ""#
/5 7 B
G . . ?
F C
. 7 @
7% :@ ) " 9 F
" X ?+ 1
) Thorlief Enger % & D 7$
K
ef =% M Osebreg X
5+ 0 & 5+ =0
@
1$ 5 ,f C""# 1$ 5 K
e` P
K + C"" 1$ 5
.""O 1$ 5 ,# C""c
! 7 + C""#
/5 7 !
M C1 U ( 9 5)
G 7 @ C-G
' . Dan Etete % 7 M -G K (
: 5 + .13 '-G 5+ @$ 5( M 0
b) C -G X%
.b) 13 -G 0
7V C X G KH K$G @ 7
5 +0 S P
9 .K c J ` 7 L 5 X% G 50 u )
.(f) +0 5 + 7 5 X 0G G 5H K(3 .5 + S
#e
:*$ 7 9 S X G WG ?

1 M 7

7 F ++ ?
.-G P 3, 5 '*G3 CF ,
P 3, 5 ' C . ( 3a J F , 5 J -G +
.0
9 6(% -
K* G 6 7 K 0 -G
+ ( C'<$ =$ 0 F , 5 9 (

, 0
9 -G 7%
+ 7 >
70 C D
0
, X +0 '
<
U
[ C5 F

=$ =$ 9 + 1 , 89 5 C

C+
B 9 $ 50 7 J + N0 :D
J - -G
U( 5 C 9 $ , &+ 1 .'

E0 ' + 3 6( '
+ C* . $ !3
5 - 0( & H 5H 50 7 5 F =$
-* 7 'H0 =$ C() +0 '*0 N 0 C7)% 7 '*0 N3
N0 7 0- 7 7 C + 3 -
5H .()

.F , :*$ -G $( =$ K

D -
. - 89 N 0

?S 9 0 -G 7 & 0 :
?S L * 10 TK
. ( ' =$ ' - + (V K ) [ C9
$ 7,
5 C + 89 5D ( 6 F , :*$ - -G .
B
89 7Y C7D . :D

. 9 7$ 7$ .0 ' '
+
7 >
-+ ' -3 % C9 <
3 ' ' '--3 7$ 70
:D
J - -G 7 F 7 19, .'

'--3 7 0* 7 7

> 89 7

C
> 5) 7
N 0 J ' 5+
7 KS 89 9 ( 0 7 .F , 5 ?S .
7$ ++ . ( -0 CH S <+ (% . ( C-
*S
+ : % 7 & H 89 5H .P 3,
7 '% 89 B*
.0 -G -
. + 7 $ *
v 7 $ + C. 3, . $ !3
563 K:
, )
?
C -G $( K D * CD = , 23 : 7 E

? -*6 7 . ( G & 9% C$( 8' 0- 3A
0G C-G $( =$
D C9 S () . :
C6
7 , 9 &
> .* G 'G) &0* F , 5 5 X% G
#"
. ' ) CLG

2' P 3, 5 7 0) , 89 5
.& 7 7 5)A -G 7 &
+ -
- 89 ) :7* 7+0 563 F , 5 1H0 <' - TKD
*G3 -G 0 5 G .$ () =$ * K D
1S .""# 1$ e," =% ""f 1$ "`,# 7 C
-G < 0
#c,c =% "e 1$ cO",` 7 5 89 2 WG
1$ è 8 ) N< 7 ' M ?
7 NG3 + C""c 1$
' .""# 1$ ],` 8 + K$ @ C"ef
c,O 8 + K$ 0 ( C"ef 1$ #c 8 ) N< 7 CK K*G3
.1) , 89 (O :`) 5 U* .""c 1$
f
(O :`) 5
() > N0
-G . ( 0 5
""# J "ef . G
( )
**
""#
e,"
J
""c
""O
""
""f
e`,O
"c,
e,#
"`,#
"e "ef
J
#c,c #f`,c c]",# ce],] cO",`
7
-G ( <$ (
0
, 2 %

J
],`
J
c,O
#,
],]
c,c
c],
J ",
,]
#e,]
J ,`
#c
0 /N<G

***
è

M ?
7
H6
: (
OAPEC, Annual Report of the Secretary General, 1994, Kuwait: 1995,
pp.53-57. the Unified Arad Economic Report, 1994, published by the Arab
League, AFESD, AMF and OAPEC, Abu Dhabi, 1995.
7V C-G <$ =$ 9$ b+ 7$ F , 5 . ( 1S
=% -G <0 9
0G C-G 0 5 G .K !0 9
7 * *G3 C""c 1$ %`c,e =% "e` 1$ %O,] 7
K* *G3 C%c,] =% %`,O 7 * S *G3 C%e,] =% %Oe
.(c :` 5 ) '
G . G 563 F 5 C%# =% %O,O 7 D
<$
.
+ " 6
. " 6
.T X7

*
**
***
(c :`) 5
-G 0 5 (
""c J ""` . G
( <
)
**
""O
""
""f
"e"
"ee
"e`
7
`c,e
`,`
è,`
`],O
]c,`
#,f
O,]
-G %
e,]
e,O
`,]
`,
O,#
Oe,c
Oe,f
* %
c,]
c,
,f
,O
#,e
`,
`,O
* S %
#,f
O,]
,c
,
],
f,]
O,O
D
7 53
""c
H6
: (
. The Unified Arab Economic Report, 1994, p. 302.
5

? . D; * +
!0
=% "e` 1$ %O," 7 CEG % =% W 7, =$ EG
0G % .23
=% %Oe,]# 7 0 3 =$ EG
*G3 C""c 1$ % Oe,#]
. G 563 % Oc,`# =% %O],# 7 $ 3 =$ EG NG3 C%OO,e
(# :`) 5 .'
G

+ " 6
" 6
O
*
**
(# :`) 5
-G 0 5 EG
""c J "e` . G
( <
)
**
""O
""
""f
"e"
"ee
"e`
7
OO,e
O,]`
O,O
O#,##
Oe,
O#,]
Oe,]#
0 3
Oe,#]
O,#O
O#,"
c,
O,#O
Oe,`
O,"f
W 7,
Oc,`#
O,]c
e,ff
Oc,#]
Oc,c
Oe,f`
O],#
$ 3
c,cc
O,#
O`,`
",e"
",#"
`,#"
f,f
() 3
,e"
",`#
e,]f
f,]]
O,#"
f,e
e,Ò
P 3 ?
""c
H6
: (
The Unified Arab Economic Report, 1994, pp. 304-306.
C-
, E

W* , 9 D; & <( 89 7 B
. 9 '
=$ T. D 7 F =$ 5
C5 - P =$ +
?S
b+ C0 ( 3 $ NG3 C7((3 7G 7' 7 &;
5 7 E6S% C8 % b+ : ' W-+ C0 E D

, D
J 10 J v* ? =% .) . 5) 0 M , C.
.- 7 ' - -G B =$ -+ (+ % C-G S B
:

B 0
, E
=$ F , DA b+ CKDD
9 7$ F , 3 + CB* 9 0 5 +0 5 M E,
b( X &+
=$ '$ () CE
; F K 0
,
1 H 7 .8 ' 7 1 M C5D, 0
=% 5 ( 5
C:*$,
. 0 0
$) '<*$ 1H0 C * 9 = E
+<* :% .1' . + b( 7$ H NY C1')- =()A 7 (E 0
7 J '$ 0) - Y* n* -G 7$ >
-
( C5 89 1H0 '

+ " 6 *
. " 6
c
**
-G 7 X% 7 9 ++ .<0 . 5 7 J 5 :
> >

.5 5 7 F , :*$ ) @$ 5( M 53 NG3 7$
i % G
7 C M 5) 7
. $ C-G 1'

7 Y F , :*$ N0 . 3,

C+
?
F C-G X W-) 7 , 5 5 3 ,
=% M>
@ 9 5D .' . 5
7$ )G N 0 &'
=% J M ) 5 9 J , F U( - X% + =% % T7
6
1 .P ), 5 9 9 CF , . + '( 5 89 1 1$
6
' -3 =% 89 5 &
C < -) 7 5 B 8 9
@ + - , . $ 1 + C-G E
=% D E 0 0 $ CH
.K 5 76 7 ? + X% &' CX ' !
=$ C)60
% K(3 C ')- B
?S F , 5 7 5 7 F

89 7 . - &
6 16 5 C> & H
+ 5 ' C@
G 8 9
F , H X 3 5 7
7 F =% &* .(3 0
> 1$ =% * C0 -G

-G 7 *% @ =0 CK A K F , 0 5 -G E
' C1'% NG3 F , :*$ 7 <$ Y J ) , 7 ) M J E

,
. , F 1'G
F , 7% C 0
, =$ HG ' ! @ F , :*$, S 5 10
2 ?0 7 9 F , =$ 7V J M+ M ?
J N Y ' K6( <
1$ F , :% C 7 7 $ -G X
=% 53 + 7 .'
C(, 0 9 HG F , 5H 59 : 9 L - 5>
U( 1D 7 ."]f
h' 7 & H 5<' Y 7$ H NY
@% ? - 1 7$ C ' 5 )- 70 7 .0 , 7 U( +
5 @ M 13
K6D d: % B ' C ' 563 13 F , -G 7
F9 7 7 7 E
, =% E
13 9 5 7 N G CH X 3
U( 5 CF , >
7 A
i % 7; @ 0 1 @ 9 5D 7 .@% 7
J 'S 7$ H NY CU A 2 F ,
: 7 7$ 5:
19 D
. ' 1+ J 'S 1$
? A 7 - 5 7 0 1 C. ( ' 3 7 F , 1
X 3 7 9 J 5 89 $-
% C0G G -G 2 5 X 3 0
,
B- .5 K O 7$ 5+ 0
A C +0 . G '% P
=$ H 7 J F ,
#
7
C - . G <0 7 P
9 B R0 7 F , 5 1H0 B-
7
P 3 7 .:( 7 E
E 1 H X 3 -G 5 B E
7 0 ':
5 >
( C& H 89 5D .. -3 '
G F , 1 1$
.-G 23 5 1 =D
5<

( 7 0 C0 -G $( 3 5 0 DA 7 7
89
-G 53 % L + .
+
7 =% F , 5 -G
C""c 1$ O] "e` 1$ "c,] 7 CH $ D :*$I
. 5 =% E 0 . $ B .() + . G 563 89 =+ 7 5 7
1D 7 C 0
, =$
D @0 CE
, ? -* B-+ &
0 -G
X G B 0
7 E G 9 J @
G -G B 7 (3 .H :*$ 53 NG3
.
5v U( J
1$ 0
, ' J F , '' J () ?$( 7 K+

?$( 89 D .("" J ""f) D 23 ? 563 D )G C"e]
EG
. C
<
D
7$ -G <$ $
89 5 7 P .
. $ 9 & WG CM
0
7 .' ' 3 7 =$ U( C ) 0(
8 : 9 7
i % .10 W-+
< D
9 ( 9 5 , 50G
C0G

() : 7 3 70 CB* 0 K 7 1
.' 1 0 NG3 7 E+
5< 7% hB* 9 ' -G 23 5 7 & : 9 7; L - 5>

C-G 0 )G 563 7 F T* G 'G) 1$ X NG3 9
:$ 5 -G $( 7% K $ 5 + 7 .<' X 5 50 )G
E
&0* 5D CK< ' 50G 7 B-
C'$ ' . -
3 5 0
() ) C? () G C 0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 7 )
&'
5< C
. ( '0 50 1 *+ 89 5D .-
.=D . ( =% -G $( 5 (
7 ! 5 7 7 C9 3 () 6( 7
7+0 563 J -
, E 5 * + .' '0 0( & H
.& H9 ) ? ' 7 C5
=$ B) + 7 J 7*

B G @0 7, C@$ 5Y 7 9 5 - U( .$ 7%
5 B P ) P + 7 50
7 ? M 2' 9 9 .& -,
F 7 ? .P ), , ' B '+
=% . Y( 5 89 . H C. Y(
) C + 'A +0 '( 563 7
i % +- =% H =H0 P + 7 B
7 & -, 5 7 ? .9 +- 5 7 : K- -3 0*
23 D 7 7 +- B-
1 CB ?) 3A
$ (
89 )
9 J 63 1 u ' @ B 1 K* + .5 +$ P =$
. 1 -
<D N G 563 7 C
5<
' 70 J 1,
9 -G 5 () .$+ B
U( C9 () W* , 5H
79 ) F , % C
0
@9 -G
3 V .0

D
5+ 7 < +- 7 U( C 0
, X

50 1+ B-

7 Y 1D 7 .+
' ( -G <$ =$ 9$ 7 H 5
D
5 ! E 5G C) . 1 '() UG 5 89 1 +
++ - 5 7 0 0 23 5 7 0 ! 5 7
.3
D

WG ?
C+ +0 563 K:

5 9 C0+
0 <G 7* B+ ! 5 7(, 7
$ &( 7 .5 89 7
.50 b 7 E3 C10 ( 3 . ?- M , CK$ 7 5),
K . + - $ 70 % C5 89 5D M( + 5<
G 7
P
C+-
. & -, B 7 ) )60
. 1)G
i % @$ 1 7 C() )60
C H 5+
9G + 89 1 7 F 7 ) B- F9
. '' :

C+- K <

B* 5H
7 7 &0* 7 .5< 89 =$ K D $
9 CE 0 7 % 5
. E - X' C+- . L - =%
F' C5< 89 G
7 6 C. S . -G <0 :
.) *+ 0
1$ P M *

7 7 C H +- 5 =% H
.5+

]

89 ' .0 () K 3> ' - ? 9 5 ( * 0

'6
' -3 K* 0 J -G =$ 0 J 23 5 U( -
?- ? =% H % .@
G ) K> K( ' 1+ 7% .5+
'
C-G .
$( 5 ''

7 B -3 7 &
C-G =$
0G : N0 5 89 3 + .0
D 7 7-G 7' '
C(. + C

563 7 9G 1) 0
, WG ?
)-
"`# "`c 1$ -G 0
WG 7 K D G
7 J F , X 3 7 0
.( - * 1+ 563 7) @% -G & W
=$ J
E
M + 9 1+ 7$ 23 5 F , H )$ P 3, - 7
5+ 1D 7 ) .
$( 5 M() :,
NG3 C0 )-
J )- P 3 ( 56% ? =% C(b3 5 -G =$ C1$ 5 )- =$ ?-
5 9 J 5 0 89 =$ ? J ++ .- 5 J 0- Y
:
E- 5H
C3* - F , 5 -G 7$ :Y

:*$, S 5 - C'$ HG .:G D 5<
13
C)-
.-G 7 0 N 0 . F ,
5 ' J F , 5 7A ? 9 +0 . H 7V C5 =$
% .7$ M 5 U* 9 C9 R' 7$ 3v 5 >
J 23
5 B 9 C7D 7 ' -G 0
=$ HG U A 2 1 + *
5'
+ - C
' B
=$ J F , X 3 J
9 $ -% -G % . C.0 E- 0- Y -G =% 5(
.F , X 3 5 )- WG =% P 9 5 .*
1 'G 'H =% P J 0 -G E
F , @0 M J U A 2 7
DA =% 9 P .F , :*$, S 5 @+$ M C"?- ?
X"

1 CD 9 = =% *G3 C0 X F , ( =$
X 3 7 =$ BG $ * F , &) 7 .? ) '$
i % '0
D F , 5 *

F 7 =$ 5 D 7% 5 C1'
G :*$, 7 D F ,
.'
S 5>G N0 D C5+
-G E
9 7A K 3> . F9
+- K

. C3* - 5 (3 J F , :*$ P 0)
`
. -
K0 CK6 K6$ 7% =6
F , X 3 2 -G N $ 7 9G J 23
.
J F , X 3 J 5 - 7 . G 89 !
CE
, =$ F ,
=% 16

7 ? 9 '% 5( 2< 7 .23 5 - K +
=% J "# 1$ J -G $( n +0
% C. G 8' <-3
,
.KG3 7 ) B* 9 7
B 0 1 23 B* 7 U* ' C
7 D -G
=$ - +

89 .3* @- 1 @ !0 C0 -G E
.

)- X . % ' J E

G3 J ' 7

53 =$ B
-G $( 7A + 7 gU( .9 (
P =$ -G E
DA +

5 ( 10 0 C'$-) =
J
!3 563 J +- 89 7 =$ : 3 -
7 K K$% D 7 C? +
7 7 7 .F ,
< 5 ! C

Q( ' .0
7 7
5 7 N 0 NG3 $ C 5 WG =%
-G X% 0
. $ N 0 ) 0 7 .(
5 2 - 5D) F , X 3

- . $ ) 0 9 C? + P ( =% +

'
-G X% E 0 5 5 1 7 J 0 ! ) J B) 7 @ M C0
' J M() 7 9 C N $ ) 9 .

D 7 5+ 8 0 C)- =$ ?-
B &
J +

.0 -G . =$ 5 89
-G E
=$ 23 +- F , . -
3 ) 0 5D 5 0 89 %
F' .E
F , 23 ' ) '
G +- 3 - 7V C0
J 9
!0 J . 89 &+% 1 1 % C-G F6'
. =$ . D 5<
' K* 0 23 U( 9 . ( 23 -G 5+ &

K K: @ CF , X 3 5 ? 7
. ?
C. 3
9 .0( 0 7 @<$ b+ =% 8 + C 13
6 -G @% 7
=% . Y ( 9 . )- B 1$ 50G E+ )

K C. -G 7 ( . &' C'% B - -G $-) @
. () -, 7 G
C8 13 -G ( . 7
. - 56Y
F , $-
% C5 7 7 + . ( 89 7
=$ 7;
( ) .( 0) 0 () 5 8 0 )- E
7 ?- 9 5D .)- 7 *% ?- C5<9 M() &
e

; 5 9 7 0 C+- )- - E - 7$ @
( G ' 7 23 5 B-
E
9 .)- 9
'3
E 7 BQ

23 +- 7A +$ W
1$ ? 7 .
7 .G
6 >
+- @$ =% H V .)- =$ M
; ?- WG : 7 C'H0 D 5
Y C J ) 0 ? C<
J 0 W () +
1$ ? 7
' 7* =0

7 , (E- N0 1
1$ C ) 0
b (3 .. &
. - 2 X' C' ( B -G 7
( 13
C : % 563 7 @++ =0
)
; 5 7V C?- 7
89 5+ 5 7 50 7 23 5 =$ 1 9 .
< P + 1G
.< ' . C
; 7 5, .- )6$ 1+ = C& 3
E
7 !
=$ C * 7 5* 7
23 5 5+
7A G 3 M D
-G . J
L U( 1D 7 C. 3,
K K Y Y ) 0
)60 : * =$ .E
89 'H M -p E0 1'G =$ KG) J 0
9 C10 5 7 9 S 7 D
B M 5 5*G 23 +- 7 U* .
.
; E
I
23 +-
B) B ?

C0 -G E
5 'H =$ > - 9 7 H6 Y
5 7 - C=* ) M 7 D () P + B*3 (
EG

$ B*3 C-G . ( 5 () 7 E

:
5 ) F D . 3, ; . b(3 =D

B K D
3 ?) $ =% M> + B* 9 F 1 1 % CF , :*$ () .
J B D 0
-G 0
WG 7 & 0 7 .K6+

= C' 0 $ & H 7
o EG =% J -G <$ =$ .0 5
'<+ -G 0
' B 7 .0G 0
89 =$ .0 7; (
=% X 7 ' TX EA -G . ( 5 ( C*G3
M :3 R0 7$ < ?- C8
=$ HG -G <0 7
*G3 P 3 7 .?0 .3; .' =$ H C5 89 @'
WG
B .0( 0 % -G <0 NG3 B C-G
C0 -G E
H ( NG3 CF , :*$, S 5 -G X%
0 7 5 =$ C')G% - . X 3 7
6 5 N0 -*
.P 3 . WG 6 -G 0

"
F I ()

: 7 7A C5>
7 K D D -+ 89
<0 . % 0a J 6 < J F , :*$ N0 G .7 3, 7+0
L , 13
6
5 CF 7 ) 3; '*0 CD D -G
J =% 6 J < 7 5 =% H % .-G 7 + 0G
W-) B
7 & 0 .' 1 5 7 D C. 5 E3 =% P -G 7
J =
563 7 C$-+ 7 8 S =$ $ W-+ =$ -3 DA D> -G
C0( 0 % WG ' ++ & ( 0
WG M) "M ' N "
. :

G @ P
o E3 =% -G P .(-G 0
WG 7$ 8 2
- W 7 '() 7 1 J
% $ J P 3, F , 5 . . (
K< + J () B 7 ."M ' N " D 'H G
F6'
5) 5 <' X $ =$ KS J -G S .$+
.'
G -G $(
7+0 F , H :*$, &0* M() :, 5H C 3; ? =$
=% 0 9 .0 @ D + -G 7 7 7() 7 G N0 U( C7 3,
G -G 7 'H0 P C? 9 5 ( : &+ * 7A 5>

-3, =0
7 '$ 23 +- 7 C$ G( ? 0 9 ()6
+) 0 =% CE- $ ) =% K
M 9 .' @$ 7 C''
5 J -* 1 1$ $( 5 7 7 % C() ,
F
)
< () '$-) =$ $ =% J '
7 G3
. E6- F 0 (7 1G C
U+ C .
: + 1'
) -G 7 7 C
< $-+ H 0
563 7
7 E+ ' C() =$ ?- A
9 C@$ M()
@V C7 S . P + C53 B .$% CG3 $-+ 7
.() $-+ E6- E 0
1 - E+ =$ . + @ M CM() W-+ @A K

< W-+ &m 0[
G3) . X - 563 7 '$ DA B-
C() $-+ + B
F
:% P 5D 5
=0 .6'
- 563 7 C(,
5<
L @
G ) C(G3 - 89 ) G =$ ?- . =% .
1 0
-G 7, K H .( - 89 ) () + 6(
G3 - 10 % C&0* 1
. '- 7V C13 ' ( K

9 (
- 5D CX 3 7 .
-G X%
5 7, C P
=$
]f
$(

. C(3 )- K ( -G 7 ,
C5+ P
' E+ @V . - N0 1S .
.() -, W ) 3 E
1 E0 $ K H
.(-G M)
< W-+ 7$ ' J 6'
M J P 3, -
=% M> C
< W-+ 70 < . + WG $ A 6'
-
W-) 5 ! 13
7 .P 3, $-+ 7 3 B
=$ ?- .
7 1 % .-G . ( 5 K . - 89 50 C@ 0 $ ) -G
=$ @)G% 1 &
53 7V C - 3 B
X% =$ K ) @
G - ()
. 5
7 J - =$ 9$ =% -G () 5 -* CE
K0
7 H6 .() 0 -0 J V -G <$ 13
563
0 - ' - CE
> ?
B
P 3, -
* .'9 ) C7
.
() : ; 3A ) C

9 : :3
-G 5 '+G -G 7 K K: 7V CE
) ' C $ 3* u D

' U( .'$
.9 9 +$ C9 'H . ' B =$ -G <$ 7 <- u ' @
G
=% ' - 50 BG C < 9 -G B 53 =$ 5D
) S ( 3 5D F9 .7 3 :$ 9() 0 C%cf
C7 ) S ( 3 5D F9 ' G 53 50 C7
7 B-
1 P 3, -G 5 7 .P 3,
7 NG3 ' G 53 50
.(-G) ' S 0- 9 ( . +G 5 7 K 7
U(
=$ $ 7 K J
()

' 5 7V CF 7 !0 =$
7 9 F =$ 5D U* C9 S 7 5* 5 ( J 0- &

. () 7 $
++ C2 2 9 . Y

5 K(3 J . ( B M : 9 9 @
G L - M 5>
.7 7 .
7 J 5>
9 =$ 7% h'$ E G 5 89 5D
E+ 7 J 23
1 Y( 1D 7 3 5
.$+ 1 Y( =% 0 J N0 H '
7, T ( B-
M 9 5D 7 . +$ P% 5 9 C E

2 2 9 5D) ' 7
.$) Y( 1S CK d: ++ . Y( 5 7 K$ F9
E 0 M 9

6( b+ 7 8G 3 P F9 .(9 S

. Y

@$ 7 8 M 9 7 C1 0 @ =$ D 10 . +
E+
]
E+ + TG3

1aHa 5H
=$ ' ) D () 7 F T '

. 5H C(. Y
7 ) -
1aHa 5H F
1S C <9 -3 ++ C7( ' F =$ 5D 5* .2 2 9
.$ ? J 7; = J '$ *3
5+

DA D> ) 5 0 =$ : * + ? 9 7% 5 + (63
()

P 5 9

>
L - C3 -G (
5 =$ 1 7 U( ( 0 ) 0 () =
'H B .=* 'a
.7 0 M 7 + 5 3 A' = C
() 6( 1 + 7 -G
1$, @ D + J 7; 7
7 $
$ 0 J -G E
W* A >
5+ 9 $ &9 =+ .+
> 5 7 U* C D S ' ?S,
. + B () =% C(-G) ? * 5) ( =$ 0 () 7
() 9 =$ K DA 5) -G 0
+ U( <$ .N '
=$
W
1
3 () E
C63 7 K -G U( CK
K% -
( 8 $ "e] 1$ -G 0
' =% H 7 E- 9 7 .'$ @
7 5 =$
Dv 0 ) -G 0
, G WG 7 D CF I
! 7 10 7 J -G ( =$ $ J 5 Y .?- N 0
S '+
7' . -3 0 7 C&0
7

7 ?+
.-G 0 G J 7; J 7 K * 7 1D 7 . 5)
.$) B 9 7 ( C23 5 + 0( 7 K K$ 7V H 7

5H
:+ 7* J F J () -,
.@ - B 7 .
1 M C 0 ()
?#8
*( * 5" 2
0 7 8 =$ 5( C. 0 0 () 1
+ $

= C7
0 5Y, . . p K
< 50 @ E
.""f 1$ G

7$
:E
F ," @G> 7 .--3 7 > 10 . 5 $
GH
7 0 ? =% " 0 5 M
0 EG" C"') 9 -G 0
D
.< )- 7$ +
]O
>)
B
. ') 5$ ."e 1$
F %
% 5 . MG
(F ) -G . ( 0 5 H )60 16$ 1
+
K F 5) 5$ C("` J "`c) 0

1 0 1
) 5$ .
0 .$ G> @ .("`c J "`f) -
G
'0

7 0 @ 5 .-
, E W* -G $( 7$
."Ò 1$ )60 8 =$ 5( C 9 0 +
7
+ 5 C7 - )- () '0
< M()
7 ()
=$ 5( .
M 0 -G 0

Y" C"
; -G E
23 " ' + 7 $ @ . - "
" 0
-G 7A ?- N 0 =% $ . H" C"'G3 C13 -G 7 7 D
." -G $( @0 7 7 M CM' - J
+-
R 5
5 b(3 9 . !

'0
P
=$ 5( .() )- C'

C0 ')
)- %
&( P . !

'0 7

1 0
!
. + '*0 C0 )- +0 *+ 7$
7 K$ 0

.("e] J "e) 0 0- Y
1$
0 . ' (
' TY .0 .$ G> @
'0 @ ( C"-G E
() :Offf 1$ = -G 0
" ' $ C"e"
$(
- :? =% K" 7 0 K + ""O 1$ !

> 2 C)- () , 0 ! *$ 9 ."-G
.""] 1$ 0 @+$ M

!
'0
' ! .(0 7- -G 7 >

C-
, E

=$ 5( 1D Cn 0 !

, 9 0 () . !m . 9 0 7 () 8
MG ? K
5$ .7 X 0 3 3 C

C! )- C G 0 . C !<

b(3 9 .$( . 1, H C . 1, 2
]c
+-

J Y 0, C 7 + 1+ CY -G 5 *
-G () 5 5+ < @ . + )- () C-
, E
+-

J Y 0, C . -3 !) C )-
CY
.-G $ *

C-
, E
G
5

9 0 C-
, E 7 > b(3 () !
89 53 C("`" J "]c) 0 ! 5$ .+ , )
"M
" 0 ! 1) "`" 1$ .7
. -G 7 >
@$ . G
F C"M
" 0 )- () 7
> :*$, 7 CSurrey

K
5$ ""c 1$ .D 10 )-

0 $ :%
B -G 0

+
-G

()6
7 D
5$ C)- () 7$ .$ G> @ .
M 0
.
7 79
0 E
0 3" !
A 5*G @ 7 ."! 1 "
> 7 K % K 5$ @) 5) ."e` 1$ "! 1
563 7 C"() -
, E 3" !
A 1) C
$ .
+ ()
P -G 7 0 K
5$ .-G E
7 > 1+ <(3A @$
. 3 B .10 : = (3 0
> F C,

)- E
CX 0

C)- E
5 K$ . $
3 =$
5 .< 5$ @ .G
0 , 0 @0 =+ .5+

.7* 7+0 563 ' $ C-
, E +- M()
]#
U
& '(

) ? *
0 23 5 7 Y ( 7, C-G ( =$ 9

.
7 ) K 7 1 5 89 7 . 1 7 & 0 7 .)
9 .( 7 C E 0
( J H J 5
0- Y ! . 50 1) 9 C(
+) ""# 1$ ?0 #,c ( 1) % C+- X 3 =% )-
9 C.> . - 1S .(1 R M

<(% ?
C""# 1$ 0- Y 0 - % 7 %],O
6 '9 C?
, 7 0 56Y
5Y
1 'V C1 R
.5+ - -3
Paul Stevens, the Economics of Hydrocarbon Pipelines in the 2 lst Century,
Pipes and Pipelines International 29, No. 5 (September October 1984), pp.
10-14 and problems with LNG, Middle East Economic Consultants, LNG
Versus the Methand Route for Gas Processing in the Arab World (Beirut:
MEEC, 1976).
:-3 ' C+- X 3 7 P ) ' :-3, 89 7 0 U*
.O
.7, ?S ' G CKG
K. +
"# 1$ 7 -G 0

G @+- G - 5 5(G 7 .c
: H
Paul Stevens, the Determination of Oil Prices 1945 1995: A
Diagrammatic Interpretation, Energy Policy 23, no. 10 (September 1995); and
Stevens, Oil Prices:
The Start of an Era, Energy Policy 24, no. 5 (May 1996), pp. 1-12
0 13 -G $ &63 7, C"-G 0
" J =
[ B- .#
.E G &3 !0 0
I 59
1$ 0
?
K O,cO M
"f 1$ 7 7V .
.""#
]

> 7 C0 5 @ 13 -G 5+ 1 $ , 9 .]
5 7 9 U* .+

N0 '*0 . $ G
9 .1,
> . -
0*3 $ G
> 89 7 $ C

5 7 C
5 K* 5 7 ? 0
5
E
=$ 0 C0
5 . * 5 )

.13 -G & (
H .`
M. A. Adelman, the Economics of Petroleum Supply: Popers by M. A.
Adelman 1962 1993 (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1993), D. G. Sauer,
Measuring Economic Markets for Imported Crude Oil, Energy Journal, 15, no.
2 (1994).
& 0 7 .Stevens, the Determination of Oil Prices H 5(G 7
-G W , G 0
, E ' 0
J 5D 5
=$ J
B +0 7
5D DA N0 B*3 9 W , 89 . 0
K0 0a C13
: H .n ...-
!
? S -G 5+ )- C 13 (3 ( 5
Paul Horsnell and Robert Marbo, Oil Markets and Pices: The Brent Market
and the Formation of World Oil Prices (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993).
7
CE
7

& -, N0 0
G3 ) .e
?
. 7 C@ 13 ( =$ (+ 8
.0
+$ "" 1$ 7 C'$ '
G $ = 0 E
7
: H ."
C. Dahl, "A Survey of Oil Product Demand Elasticities," OPEC Review, 18,
no. 1 (Spring 1994) and Hawdon, ed., Energy Demand: Evidence and
Expectations (London, Surrey University Press, in association with Academic
Press, 1992).
: H .f
C. Heal and G. Chichilnisky, Oil and the International Economy
(Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1991) and K. A. Mork, "Business Cyles and the Oil
Market" Energy Journal (Special Issue: The Changing World Petroleum Market
1994).
0a (') + N 0

, 5 7 * 0 7, K H .
.+ N 0 = @D 0 N 0 = 7V C*%
9 @ 7 ) C ( - =% < 7 5+ G =% B 19 E F9 .O
. & H ,Off
13 5+[
(3
]]
')- ?
?, 13
=$ +0 b 5 , 89 1H0 7 . 0(
.D & 7 K: 0 !
, 9 =$ C& B 0G
5
C
() =% J ++ J M 9
.c
K+ J 1$ < 7 D 563 @% B) -G + .13* -
X 7 =% *G3 ) 9 J K + 1(3 0
5
?
0

i % U( 5A C5; X 7 5* 50
.B =$ -G <$ DA 7A E+ !
!0 C1(3
K.$ 7* J -G (3 J . Y & 7 & 0 7 .#
. ?< * 7 89 8

C$
?- =$ KS ? % C?
8 H =% F B
.
9 + -+ 89 5

) . D
' NG3 & H
.(5(G
: H .]
Paul Stevens, "A Survey of Structural Change in the International
Oil Industry 1945-1948. "In the Changing Structure of the World Oil Industry.
Edited by D. Hawdon (London: Croom Helm, 1984).
13
$ "7- 7" "7

, 7" 7 7 Y .`
.+ () -(
N 0 7 KD K ) !0 CK
-3 9 1
7 D 5 , .e
& -, B ) 0
, WG 7V B) . 0
7$ H & (
.GG- . X . L
C'*) &G3 =$ E

: H . ' 0
) 9 F , 7 7 3 P ."
G. Gately, "A Ten-Year Retrospective: OPEC and the World oil
Market, "Journal of Economic Literature 22 (September 1984), PP. 110-14 and
J.M. Griffen and d. J. Teece, OPEC Behaviour and World Oil Prices (London:
George Allen and Unwin, 1982).
: H .M 9 B EG
Paul Stevens, "saudi Arabian Oil Policy: Its Origins, Implementation and
Implications. "In State, Society and Economy in Saudi Arabia, edited by. T.
Niblock (London: Croom Helm, 1981).
: H .Of
Paul Stevens, "OPEC and Oil Revenues". In Trade, Transfers, And
Deveopment, ed
CE
, 9 Y W* , 7 & 0 7 .O
70< - 5 . 0 =$ 0 M B< 7 K6 7V F $
]`
7 ?
+ 1' & -, 7 5) $ F9 7 V .7 3; 7
N 0 = =$ J
L * J 0 7 7 0-
1'V C 0
N< F9 7 % 7 0-
0
563 7 .?- =
X . % + 7 3 C1'9 E+ 7 ( 1D 7 Cb+
@ =$ B-+ -+ 7V & H 89 5D . 0
, 1 5 7 @*G3
63 59 7 7 5 CM 0
7 =$ HG *

X ( -3 ?- = 7V ( :) 5 7 U* .E
-

& ) . 9H @ 89 C 0
, WG $ G 1 7 76+
V C70 7 = -
. + ' M C: U-
=$ 7 GG3
7 563 7 M . E Y C-
' 7 9
7 =+ 0
7V J -

J ) % E

1 9 - 2 7 9 .' DA @V . G 0
% C DA
&'
0
B* 0 M , C-
=$ H X (
." 0
, "$(" + - 9 89 .@ X ( -3 ? + $ 50
: H .OO
J. Blair, The Control of Oil (London: Macmillan, 1976) and p. Stevens, "A
Survey of Structural Change in the International Oil Industry 1945- 1984. " In
The Changing Structure Of the World Oil Industry, edited by. D. Hawdon
(London: Croom Helm, 1984).
: H .Oc
I. Seymour, OPEC: Instrument of Change (London: Macimillan, 1980).
: H .O#
J. Hartshom, "From Multinational to National Oil: the Structural Change,
"Journal Of Energy and Development, no. 6 (Spring 1980).
: H .O
P. Verleger, "the Evolution of Oil as a Commodity." In Energy: Markets and
Regulation, edited by R. L. Gordon, H. D. Jacoby, and M. B. Zimmerman
(Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1987).
: H .O]
J. Mohnfeld, "Implications of Structural Change, "Petroleum Economist
(July 1982).
: H .O`
J. Roeber, the Evolution of Oil Markets: Trading Instruments and Their Role
in Oil Price Fromation (London: Royal Institute of Intemational Affairs, 1993).
]e
.7 =%
7 K' 5G
=% "X ( -3" 7A 5 + 7 .Oe
+ E
?0
V +$6 K H C?$6 =% 8 5) 0
, WG B
. 0
, =$
DA F 0 7 7 C* -G 5 7
: H .O"
J. M. Keynes, the General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
(London: Macmillan (Papermac 12), reprinted 1994). P 156.
. G b<(3 89 7 D 7% C5+

' 3 . 89 .cf
.1 = <) 5
- 7$ KD
D0 6 .5% .M% ) "## 1$ .c
7%" @ : K + B C 0 23 +- *
F
23 +- 7 5+ &
0 -G X
5+D
7 D0 :*$ 7
=$ : .-
, E 0 23 +- =%
: H "n .< " 9 +- 89 -G -
D. Yergin, the Prize (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1991) p. 393.
: H .cO
M. A. Adelman and M. Shani, "Oil Development - Operating Cost
Estimates, 1955-1985." Energy Economics 11, no. (January 1989).
: H .cc
G. W. Stocking, Middle East Oil: A Study in Political and Economic
Controversy (Nashrille, Tn: Vanderbilt University Press: 1970) and E.T.
Penrose, The Large International Firm in Developing Countries (London:
George Allan and Unwin, 1968).
) 7 C@ M ' 1S Y 9 n 7 7 1 .c#
Blair, The Control of Oil. : H ."## 1$
- U(G 1 J -G 7 F ?
.c
F - 7 ( 9 1' 7 .7$ Xp ++ G 7$
7 % J - F6 ? =% CD 0 ?
. 89 1'

89 =$ HG G3 ? 7 -G "]f "` $ 7 .c]
:% =% P M 9 C"]f J "" . G C-G 0
NG3 7 C(
.F , H
Seymour, OPEC: Instrument of Chonge : H
]"
1 E
UG 7 'V 7 J ( 89 ' 0
-G . 5 7 E
3 J 3 (
U
% C
1H =$ "" 1$ - Y ?
C0
.3 7 ( b3
i %

.
W
M C-G ++ 0
NG3 8$ 9 .c`
. -3 5D 7$ X <
3 % C
&) &3 .ce
<
3 89 7V C. D> 5 0 7 P 3 $ 1S . $(
=% D 10 5 + 7 $( 5+ ) 5 0 19
C& b3 -G X% =$ . + . 5'
7 7 + .$( 5
. 5(G 7 U* &
. . ) B B* !0
7- Y
S <' -G B* 9 % =$ $
.c"
.B) N0 - H 5 CN ,
: H .#f
Paul Stevens, Joint venture in Middle East Oil, 1957-1975 (Beirut: Middle
East Economic Consultants, 1976).
: H .#
Zaki Yamani, "Participation Versus Nationalization: A Better Means to
Survive." In Continuify and Change in the World Oil Industry, edited by. Z. M.
Mikdashi; S. Cleland, and I. Seymour (Beirut: Middle East Rosearch and
Publishing Center, 1970).
( . 0
, WG 7 - $ b .$ Y .#O
5 6 D ( DA C> @ 5 $ D = , -G
.&63 K0*
6 CH )- N< 7 5<* : 1 .#c
&63 .')- =()A 2' ' C ')- B
=$ 50
CK 5 76 # P
$ :+ 9> ')- 7 1$ 7 % 5
0 7 % 7 7 7) 7 D 7 .K 5 7 #,] =%

CF , 5) 7 . + '( P
CX =$ HG . -3 0( 7
.K 5 7 c,] 9
1 C
N SI ) 0 -G 7 . XV L
A
7 .##
E
=$ @< 5 7 C , 3 . ? 7 93
`f
9 C 0
0 B >
B d:
C-G
. 0
?*S D
: H .#
Paul Stevens, "Arab Downstream Petroleum Exports: Problems and
Prospects." In Middle East Exports: Prospects, Occasional Paper Series no. 28
(Durham, UK: Centre for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, University of
Durham 1986).
. )- K

&'
7 ( =$ 53| M - .#]
53 ) 7 N0 5+ $ E
a
< 2 7 .#`
? )- 7 C-G $( <' 5 (X 3
.' ? 5+ =% M> E
, 7$ -G 7
.%Of
0 0
, 7$ +0 F 3 NG3 13 -G 0
7V CF B .#e
Seymour, OPEC: Instrument of Change : H
Blair, The Control of Oil : H .#"
D 9 ' @ J 5, - +0 B J ( 9 .f
.13 -G . 5) 9 +$ 1 7 9 S '+
6 C.0 E- =%
F 7 C23 +- N , 7- -G - B 5*, 7 @0
: H .

6( 7 K ) ?-
E. T. Penrose, "Vertical Integration with Joint Control of Raw Material
Production: Crude oil in the Middle East. "Journal of Development Studies, 1
no. 3 (April 1965).
1A -3 ' =$ $
-G ( B 7A 5<+ M 5 F 7 ) D
"Ò $ 7 ) 23 7 3 - Y* 7, C5+

.+ - !G 10 7 P 3 E- K* K. ("`]
: H .
J. Maclean, "The Importance of Newcomers in the International Oil
Business." Middle East Economic Survey, XI no. 24 (1968).
Stevems, Jouint Ventures in Middle East Oil, 1957-1975 : H .O
CX 3 Xp , 0 D
) 9 F =$ 5D .c
.P 3, ' =% D
' 9
`
0 50
7 5 9 J E
, - 3 J 9 ! .#
1 1 -G 3 5 7 U* 7 .=0 ' 5+ M
:5D '
"When You are in one (hole) Stop digging".
.. ! &+ 6 X 7 @ 7 7 :B< 0 ? + 80
Stevens, Joint Ventures in Middle East Oil, 1957-1975 : H .
Seymour, OPEC: Instrument of Change : H .]
7 B ' F = , . @ =% 9 9 B .`
1D C =$ K (+ , F 7 "`f
/5 = C 0
B*

/ 5 7 7 * G =$ 0 U(
."`c /5 , 7 "`f
.Stevens, "Oil Prices: The Start of an Era" : H .e
N - 5 + .7, 5 U ?
, 9 ."
+ 9 5$ . =% '( 1 7 : ' Y =$ 0 *
5 7'
5 ) 8 7 C( % - ! ) < *
.K + 7
: H .]f
Intemational Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook (Paris: IEA,
OECD, 1995); world Energy Council, Energy for Tomorrow`s world: the
Realities, the Real Options, and the Agenda for Achievement (New York: St.
Martin`s Press, 1993).
.0 '(
$ (. 5 $( $-4 !
' ) =% ! C=* 5, . () S( F , =% '
.
-* F , 7 1S .KG

8 M -G 0
=$ DA
K. ) H 7 D 1 C8 0
=$ D -G 7 * 0
.'
0
, =% 5 ( X 7 '
E+ =$ 50G
7
% =$ . + B F J K+0 D, 50

' BG W , C13 7 5+D, W , B 50 B-
J $
$ +0 P
0 9 .) =$ K &3 <' + 2 C
.13 -G 7 G3 W , E 1 % C(?- E
) K9 K
Ò
.O
=% M> CXp 10 &+

Y M 7 & 0 7
.c
9 1<6 7 7 CF , 53 X b( W * 5 . -3

J :*$, S J F , :*$ 5 U( $ .) 7 . G W *
B ( v* B CP (+ )- 7 ? + 1')- =()A K + 7
H, ( C5 7 7$ 7'
KH K$G . +
.F , 13 =$ ?- . =% M> 7 5 =$ C0 ?- WG =$ +0
: H "
" . 9H K6(G D 5 =% W
.#
One Price for All Seasons: The Diminishing Seasonality of Oil Markets.
Petroleum Finance Company ! 1 @$ b3 + 9
Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, September 1993. ..
5 e =$ "" J "" . G . + ) u
.
.9 E 0 E

CK
0 '(
9
2 : ,"
(. ,' $; % <(
2 9 7( 7 7 9 . $ P
; 5
.
.' 7G 6

% . Y
2
- % 7 6
- L - 1 89 =% 5(
.O
BP Statistical Review of World : U* C

, . +

Energy
0 > 'A .> - & 0 1 C5D 5
=$
.c
7 K6+
' 3
% J 7+ 7 +0 J
'
BP : H .<+ Y () & H 5H C. $

Statistical Review Of World Energy
%
; 5 7 D 0 CM G, ) W &63
'$ ', 7 0 K H C< )- .
1 .
v E- . Y -, - +
? =% C)-

% 7 7( ' F 1

0 )- > 8 ( + K+ C7- #,] K0
"Survey of Energy Resources 1992" :7 0
`c
.#
5 % .)- & 0 B

; Y & 0 EG E
9
.
:*$, S
; 5 ) 7 7 K6 J & 0 9 =$ d: J

. M() 7 0 H
5
0- Y X J

, $ 89 7 K D 7 H6 Y
.]
.E
C() 7 . ?$( @ J
N G ( H B % K ! , 7
.`
B K ( -G ( F ) 89 C
=$
5 7 -G ' 1 WG 7 .
; 5 -G
C7 5D + ? S C6 5D 6
C0- Y
. B K ( 7 7 7 C9 S 5
.( :c) 5 H
J 0- Y E
' 7 J )- E
(
; 5 7 D
.e
+ 0*3 5 Y E

<' 5 7 C + &G3 $ '
. 5 5 3 B . ( '$ + BG 7 U S 7 C (
.'%
7 KS J )- W-) J G3 ) W 7
7%
."
0 W , -0 1H0 7, C

; 5 7 D
. )- 1G 7 . )- 5D C)- 7
23 5 3 ( + 9

89 7

, &' 7 1
.f
M) +
)- 7% % C9: K* K9 7 @ CE
=%
.23 -
, E =% 9 ( B (-G
7 . 0( @ v :

, $ 89 7 H6
.
.5
0- Y

, $ 5D 'D C()
-G
(3

7

0
5< 7( +

B 7 .-G =$ ?- ' C@0 8 0

S ) 563 7 -G B 5D C. 5 N0 'H
0
,
= C-G 0
? C$

0 -* E
, =% 1H 7( 0 .0
. -G $( =$ *) 0 &' C""# 1$ -G
N 5D C""# / &+

(3 :

+-
.'0 -G 0
=$ +
`#
.O
7 '(
(. "6
I %. $; .
Y ( <
X 3
$ 0 & 7 & 0 7
.
<
0 Y D ?
K K G G C0-
0G & 7 .<0 % 7 %cf J Of 7 .$ L CW-+
6
& H - J Y X 3
( <
) ( 1D 7 J
C5
B( & & 89 53 C 3; 7 7 &3 B)
.

. ?- Y 13

X G 7 7
* 5) . (
.O
&
& =$ K

0 F9 56 () 7, C X
.5+ & =$ ! C -
7 C?0 1) & 5 + !G 5
0- Y 7 1$
.c
.. @$ 9 D 5) 1$ ' DA
'3
5
0- Y 7 . Y( .

.#
.: 5( M C. )

53 M J 5
0- Y 7V C13
6
.:G 7$ H NY
.
v @ 50 M -G 7 U J . )- B(
.-G )
: ( -+ 8' * D =% W 7
.]
Oil Gas and Coal: Supply Outlook (Paris: Intemational Energy Agency,
1985).
1$ % 5 &63 D K< L - Y 0
A
7
.`
. 7 H6 .-G . ( 5 7 A C)- 13

GD
G 7, C
S . 9 13 -G 0
J ? + J 50 Y 0

.0 *G3 9 ( G
( G G ? + 5D 5
=$ ( G C7A 9 . ( 5 &3
.e
7$ (+ P =$ N 0 NG3 ?

C ) ( -G G 7 Y
.N 0 v* ?
K
G BG 7 .5 ?-
: H
`
."
T. R. Stauffer, "Energy - Intensive Industrialization in the Middle East:

Third World Opportunities." (UNIDO / IS 482, Vienna, 28 August 1984), pp. 150 (also published in Industry and Development, no. 14, New York, 1985).
C-G 7 & WG ?
CK< 5+ ) & . 7
.f
.13 -G K + 5+D -G )

F 1 5
1 C 89
7 K K ) -G @
.
=$ * G + B*3 13

9 .-G 7 . 0 7 ,
-G )
0
, @- ? =% CB( 89 )- 13

.0 F 1 5+D
W-+
? C( ; 7 3
) <$ ( + ?
$
.O
<
+ ) C :
C5 ! =$ <0
. 3 B* '
.7 =% 5
0- Y 0 K* 19
) 1$ 7 H6
.c
* '(
C
7, )- 7 > 0 0 $ MG
.
. !

'0 B

' C(""# 1$ K 5 7 ") -G 2 9 0
0
.O

A C(""# 1$ K 5 7 e,#) .
K* 0
5 C(""# 1$ K 5 7 `,#) DD E

1D C(O,) 7 % ' C(K 5 7 `,#) ( 7 = ,
.(""#) K 5 7 O ' 5 Q( 2 6
: H
BP Statistical Review of world Energy , BP (1995). And Intrnational Energy
Annual: 1993 (1995).
NG3 C""# J "ee . G K 5 7 + X NG3
.c
B !G J BP H .'

G . G K 5 7 #,c + F6'

.
X% ) X% 7 B + 1H0 7 H6 Y
X% 1 . O
X 1 u CE

`]
.#
X%
5 + ) 10 DA 6 F C)
.)
+ D
C + K-
-0 )- . + 7 H6
.
G 0 N0 5 &63 ?

F 7 ) CK 3 K + 8 $ GRRFF
+ 7* +
5 N0 X % 7A )
.(E

: ; 7 D 8> C 0
, WG
> 7 (""O) R 7
.]
.:-3 7 ' 5 1S C' ' +-

.(""O) R H
.`
B ?
7 C-G N $ =%
. Y( Y 59
.e
B) 7$ D 5+ > =% KS M> 7 3* 5 + 56Y
7$ +
.(X "" R)
CIA 1977 a.
. * @$ ?
, 9 7 N0 +$ C ; 89 CIA 1977 a.
."
.f
. B
53 . ) :% 1 F C7
S
@ X 3
M C -G 5 =% N , 7- -G
.
. X 3
5<
+- 0- ?
C5<* + P
7
J N , 7- -G !3 D 2
K.$
=$ 3
7% C !3 6D + @ KY
23 J N , 7- -G 1 u 5D 5
=0 .0 P
' 3
7 C5 cf J Prudhoe Bay 9
.("è) 2 ' : H .5 f 6 K0
+ " 0 U-( =0 50 9 " " HG 13

.O
0
, ' 3
7 -G % @ (+ C"X 3
6
S -G > - CE
X M C
- C 0 Y K+- Y + 7 H6 .&
.!G 1$ 5 - K*
-G 1 WG . + . U
. -0
89 (+ ? 7 7 D .C-
, E &
u J -
, E 5 N0 J .> - 7 ' . +
=%
Cb( J D 3 J F , 7, .'
``
.c
. + - 5D T$ * 5 $ ' N G 5 0 7 $
: P

G J '$G 1S J + 89 7 D , .
. G ; $ 7, C-
, E . 7 E G 7 Y(
7 %,# M
-
, E
N , 7 B 1 ff 5
( K CK' A-3 F9 7A . '6D
-
, E + 1 7 B) .HG +
Masters et. Al. 5 +0 S @ 0 7 3
7 M 1 D
.(1983)
5D 5
=0 C5 + 9 > 7 7 ( =% W
.#
'% L 5 + 7 K $ 7A U ( Amoco 7$

50 '6Y
7 C-+ +- B+ 5 7 cff Off 7
Off u % )- B) D6D Ga .5 K u M 0
:) 5 U* . (PIW 16 May 1994) ' ' 5 5 7
.5 + :
A <) (]
% K K*G3 F9 7 C"" =%
+ 7 H6
.
5
A-3 ' J . 0 5 0 7 D C+

K + <
. & H 7 D CNG3 9 7$ >
?S, 9 J
OGJ 30 August 1993,p. 31.
u J F , :*$, S J D 10 5 < % -

.]
.`
.(""c ) < 5 cff

OGJ 3 July 1989, P. 18, piw 19 !+ "
%" G( 5+ H
February 1990, p. 2
K3* K$
cc 7 J X 3
6 5+ S -G 7V + ?

.e
."
) .<9 ) .

3 0 9 C5 7 cf u J
? S
.(O b ""# 7 3
7 7$ 7 5 C7- K 7 1 5+ G 7 P
.Of
7 )- + .(`c b ""# 7 3 ) Offf 1$ 7-
((IEA, 1994, p. 41 7- # J K 7 5+ &
N0 F9 7 C9 DA - Y 0 P =$ ) & 0 5
7
J F G( + "ee 1$ G .( 9 G ) +
7 K$ ) 7A 19+$ J 3
7 N0 7$
C F ) & . ( 7
* M() +
è
.O
-G
> 7 + N0 .(A C"ee /D 7 O

.(WSJ 15 August 1998, A10) ' D 1 =G3 '0 1) 7 5+
.""f R
.OO
& W 7, C-G $( K3

D, 9 . + &
.Oc
7 '< 7 . x S 9 CK0 . +

0
i % ?- (B 0
A K +) ; 7 X 3
& =% '
=$ 70 79 ?
$ % .&
1 1(3 0

< X G G 5D .) 7 5+ @V N
7 1D 7 C ; 7 X 3
& M
' 89 C*
.13
1H 5H . D
B 0
' +
X G M
' J 9 K D '$ 5+ M J G -

.<
0
, ?< * 3 B C-G $( + =% C
2' K & 0 (e :) 5 . 1H0 C $
3
G 0 G N0 ) C B @$ 1 M
.& $
Adelman and Lynch (1986) Appendix b : 0 8' K(3 H
PIW 29 May 1995, p. 4, and OGJ 26 June 1995, p. 22
?
, 9 50
!

'0 7 K< K
9 )
.O#
.O
.O]
. N0 @
G
=$ 5 E

() 7
M 7 5 P
.O`
9 C)- '3

D 0 C+D $( 7 W-)
7A C'
7A E

6 5H 7 B) [
7 =$ 7 ) + 2 % 7 )- ?( C)- 7 G ?(
C 5 7 + : % $ F CP 3, 5 N0
.P 3, 5 0 M
N
(Dienes, Dobozi, and Radetzki (1994), Chapter, 3, especially pp. 134 136)
.0 1
D C'* $ 5+ 1
5( ?-
ff 5 - . 7 5
e u % CP 3, 5
5Y & -Y 1
89 7% , 5 + .
D E G 1) 9 7 B) .(WGI 30 June 1995, p. 4)
&
M() 7 1S C5 7 9 S .$ ' &
`"
.Oe
.P 3, 5 $ 1

7$ 1
F NG3 ?

=$ 1
CM + '0* 56Y

i % ! , &) 7
5+ '- 7 0 9 7 7% C'* . ?, D

.N
& K(3 C& . U*

.O"
G B
. Y( 5 + 7 ! P .(Dienes et al. p.77 ) X
M &
. 7 1S .(OGJ 13 February 1995) ) B . +
@V J P 3, 5 0 B D B J & B ) D 7

5+ & B =% %cc
X . M> & 1 'G S 7
5 7 H6) .X 3
& .
. =% C&0* 0
F 7 ' J . 5D J Y P 3,
: H .G
13* 9 5D 7 CX 1
7V C*
5 9 0- 7 B .(Adelman and Lynch, 1985)
D D C.$( & +
$ 7 !0 @<
59 1 7 & !0 C' $ 5 () N ' 2 E- 563
& H 5+ ) (0 % 7
=$ < G
.(X "") R H C(
+
C""# 1$ 0- Y 7 ?0 1) ]ff 7( '

.cf
J @0 =$ 7( Y F6'

% .("") 1 R
@ 5D
3 BG
7 F6'
7V J 7

( 1 50 Y 7 *% ?- C
. ? S =%
piw 10 July 1995, p. 5 : H
.c
+ CPIW 3 February 1995, p. 3 K 5 7 ,O 1)
.cO
June CGES May : J K 5 7 O,O 9 J 3;

1995
"A Crude business in Russia. " The Economist, 25 May, 1996, : H
p. 68.
Piw 6 may 1996, p. 3 : H
.cc
.c#
the Economist, 18 April 1992, p. 75 : H
.c
Y > A

C< . ( -G $( '0 5 7* 7
.c]
89 ' --3 G C(5+D &G3 13 7) E G 89 =$ -
ef
7 -G 0) D 3 0

3 .5
'( - . D
53V + C5+D &G3 13 7 E G
E+ 7 S (
89 7 C? - 7 D
.(""# R) .L ,
.Samuels (1987) : H
.c`
* '(
?". 2 :

? *
A.
: H .
Al-Faris, the Demand for Gesoline in the GCC countries
(Kuwait: Industrial Bank of Kuwait) IBK Papers, no. 39
(December 1993).
: H CE - 8' ) =% W .O

B. L. bowerman and R. T. O`connell, time Series Forecasting: Unigied
Concepts and Computer Implementation 2nd ed. (Boston: Duxbury Press, 1987).
: H .c
S. S. George, "Energy Forecasting, Proceedings of a Session sponsored by
the Energy Division of the American Society of Civil Engineers in conjunction
with the ASCE convention in Detroit, Michigan (24 October 1984), p. 18.
: X ' (G &( =% W 7 .#
Al - Faris, the Demand for Gasoline, and A. al-Faris: "Income and Price
Elasticities of Gasoline Demand in the OAPEC Countries, "Journal of Energy
and Development. 17, no. 2 (1993).
: H .
M. C. Lynch, the Fog of commerce: the Failure of Long - Term oil Market
Forecasting (MIT: Center for Intemational Studies Working Paper, September
1992).
e
7 '(
(. 2.'
% )
?
: H .
CS First Boston, Global Energy Resources. New York, 28 April 1995, p. 4.
: H .O
Hisham Nazer, "Challenges for the Oil produces into the 2lst century" :
Lecture delivered at the Second Intemational Conference on Catalysts in
Petroleum Refining and petrochemical industries, Kuwiait, 22 April 1995,
reprinted in Middle west Economic Survey, 1 May 1995.
: H .c
Kleinwort Benson, world oil Report. (London: Kleinwort benson, February
1995.)
: H .#
Goldaman sachs, Finding Costs and Reserve Replacement Reusults 19801994. (New York: Goldman Sachs, 25 May 1995), p. 1-5.
the financial times, 29 June 1995. : H .
: H .]
Intemational Enegry Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook, (Paris: IEA,
1995,) p. 287.
OPEC Bulletin, (May 1995) : H .`
: H .e
Edward N. Krapels, "From opec to Futures markets: A New Gevemment
structure for intemational Oil". Petroleum Politics, vol. 5. no. 2, 1994, p. 3-4.
weekly petroleum argus. 21 August 1995 : H ."
Reuters, 6 September 1995 : H
.f
OPEC, Annual Statistical bulletin 1993. (Opec: Vienna, : H

.
1994). P. 6
eO

Energy in Gulf Countries

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Energy in Gulf Countries

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

 

>   .' B 7 0 CD 0 E - '

N0  - + CF , H d:*$ '0 

7  + E

'  % !  7 '$ 70 .. E

:  =$ 7 + @<  7S  13 -G '

) 7 =$ N , 7-    -G ) 7" !

  HG % .  1 9 7 C+) +

.(O") "! @ G  G 7 Y" @ +

.X N< ?( 1' 5 C 0

."e` !  C"`O 7  : (

9  ? =% J E 0 7 K  J -  W 

(. 2 .' #3

( :) 5

% C-  2  ') '% 1 E - 7$ -G 0

M  RQ'

> P + 5)     =%  'H ) J 13 -G 0 E

9 .1'% 7  J 0 G  J 7  5H

> 19G 7  .K+

.    C1   .H 3

M' - 5

?- 1 9  D> 9 C   $ 7 G3 - E- 89  

X -  0( = CF , 2' . -3 ' 6 =% @

7   50 ' $ C   /     / 7  M ' 7

? ) 7 ?) M '0*  5

+0 563 J +- 5    7 0 5  $

CD 5<  0

> 9 ()

 . +   

.' N 0 .     ?

    

.""#   F : (

"   6 7 

.""   F : (

.%/ & 

%/ ;+' &% &

.? ""# C  ""# )-     : (

. G %", =% BG  + C 

      

.""   : (

)- =$  , ?-

-G  7- 7 

.""   : (

?0 1) 7  

K  5  7 

K  5  7 

."" 1   R  : (

C""   T""  ) 5<

  $ ;   <(

.""#    T""   : (

."" C""c   : (

5  7 )    (

.""#    C""c   : (

.""#   C""c   : (

7 3 /5  7  /SK /IPC /5 

( ) . S

(9) . S

7 3 /5  / 5 / 0  

.""#   : (

   ?   %

7A & 3 7V J B)  9  J  

7 ( 7, F .. -3 6 1')

K @9 Y )- E

> .' B 7 0 CD 0 E - '

N0 - + CF , H d:*$ '0

7 + E

' % ! 7 '$ 70 .. E

: =$ 7 + @< 7S 13 -G '

) 7 =$ N , 7- -G ) 7" !

HG % . 1 9 7 C+) +

.(O") "! @ G G 7 Y" @ +

.X N< ?( 1' 5 C 0

."e` ! C"`O 7 : (

9 ? =% J E 0 7 K J - W

(. 2.' #3

( :) 5

% C- 2 ') '% 1 E - 7$ -G 0

M RQ'

> P + 5) =% 'H ) J 13 -G 0 E

9 .1'% 7 J 0 G J 7 5H

> 19G 7 .K+

. C1 .H 3

M' - 5

?- 1 9 D> 9 C $ 7 G3 - E- 89

X - 0( = CF , 2' . -3 ' 6 =% @

7 50 ' $ C / / 7 M ' 7

? ) 7 ?) M '0* 5

+0 563 J +- 5 7 0 5 $

CD 5< 0

> 9 ()

. +

.' N 0 . ?

.""# F : (

" 67

."" F : (

.%/ &

%/ ;+' &% &

.? ""# C ""# )- : (

. G %", =% BG + C

."" : (

)- =$ , ?-

-G 7- 7

."" : (

?0 1) 7

K 5 7

K 5 7

."" 1 R : (

C"" T"" ) 5<

$; <(

.""# T"" : (

."" C""c : (

5 7 ) (

.""# C""c : (

.""# C""c : (

7 3 /5 7 /SK /IPC /5

( ) . S

(9) . S

7 3 /5 / 5 / 0

.""# : (

? %

7A & 3 7V J B) 9 J

7 ( 7, F .. -3 6 1')

K @9 Y )- E

.$/ HI

"6 (. ? .

7, C D F 7 +$ 9 5 C-

G b3 7% % .. S . ( : J

=$ DA @

?+ 1 b) 0

. 5 5, 0)

6 ,Of 9 ) . =% 5 + -G 0

- -3 ++ G ?

K ($ 0 J 0- Y X 3

(?0 1) & / )

(?0 1) & /5 )

,`f =% f,#c 7

f,ff =% f,fO 7

7V 9 7 .

"6 C.+ 2 '

.(c :# 5 563 7) -

. ) 5

/ . J

5 ],fff =% 5( -