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Mt s khi nim lin quan n tn kho

H thng tn kho:
Mt h thng tn kho c l mt tp hp cc th thc xc nh lng hng ho tn kho s c b sung mi ln
bao nhiu, thi im no, cc my mc thit b, nhn s thc hin cc th tc mt cch c hiu qu.
Mi h thng tn kho bao gi cng yu cu nhng ph tn vn hnh n. Ph tn ph thuc vo:
Phng php kim sot hng ho tn kho;
Qui m ca vic phc v khch hng hay kh nng chng li s cn lng d tr trong thi gian t hng;
S lng hng tn kho b sung mi ln t;
H thng tn kho hiu qu s lm gim ti thiu cc khon chi ph thng qua vic la chn phng php kim sot
tn kho v tnh ton hp l cc thng s c bn ca h thng tn kho.

Cc quan im khc nhau v lng tn kho.

Tn kho l cn thit trn cc phng din sau:
Tn kho gim thi gian cn thit p ng nhu cu;
Lm n nh mc sn xut ca n v trong khi nhu cu bin i;
Bo v n v trc nhng d bo thp v nhu cu.
Trn mt kha cnh khc, tn kho bao gi cng c coi l ngun nhn ri, do o khi tn kho cng cao th cng
gy ra s lng ph. Vy bao nhiu tn kho l hp l?
Cc nh qun tr ti chnh mun gi mc tn kho thp v sn xut mm do doanh nghip c th p ng
nhu cu nhng s h thp mc u t vo hng tn kho. Thc t, tn kho nh mt lp m lt gia nhu cu v
kh nng sn xut. Khi nhu cu bin i m h thng sn xut c iu chnh kh nng sn xut ca mnh, h thng
sn xut s khng cn n lp m lt tn kho. Vi cch nhn nhn nh vy cc n lc u t s hng vo mt
h thng sn xut linh hot, iu chnh sn xut nhanh, thit lp quan h rt tt vi nh cung ng c th t
hng sn xut v mua sm tht nhanh vi qui m nh.
Cc nh qun tr sn xut mun c thi gian vn hnh sn xut di s dng hiu qu my mc thit b, lao
ng. H tin rng hiu qu sn xut, t hng qui m ln c th b p nhng lng ph m tn kho cao gy ra. iu
ny dn n tn kho cao.
Mc d cng mc tiu gim thp cc ph tn lin quan n tn kho, song cch nhn nhn v vn c th theo
nhng chiu hng khc nhau. R rng, trong nhng iu kin nht nh lng tn kho hp l cn c xt mt

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cch ton din.

Phn tch chi ph tn kho.

Trong iu kin nht nh, tn kho qu cao s lm tng chi ph u t vo tn kho, tn kho thp s tn km chi ph
trong vic t hng, chuyn i l sn xut, b l c hi thu li nhun.
Khi gia tng tn kho s c hai khuynh hng chi ph tri ngc nhau: mt s chi ph ny th tng, cn mt s khon
chi ph khc th gim. Do cn phn tch k lng chi ph trc khi n mt phng thc hp l nhm cc tiu
chi ph lin quan n hng tn kho.
Cc chi ph tng ln khi tng tn kho.
Chi ph tn tr: L nhng chi ph pht sinh c lin quan n vic tn tr nh:
Chi ph v vn: u t vo tn kho phi c xt nh tt c c hi u t ngn hn khc. Trong iu kin
ngun vn c hn, u t vo hng tn kho phi chp nhn ph tn c hi v vn. Ph tn c hi ca vn u t
vo tn kho l t sut sinh li ca d n u t c li nht b b qua. S gia tng tn kho lm tng vn cho tn
kho, v chp nhn ph tn c hi cao.
Chi ph kho: bao gm chi ph lu gi tn kho nh chi ph kho bi, tin lng nhn vin qun l kho, chi ph s
dng cc thit b phng tin trong kho (gi nng, chng m, lm lnh,...)
Thu v bo him: chi ph chng li cc ri ro gn vi qun l hng tn kho, n v c th phi tn chi ph bo
him, chi ph ny s tng khi tn kho tng. Tn kho l mt ti sn, n c th b nh thu, do tn kho tng chi
ph thu s tng.
Hao ht, h hng: tn kho cng tng, thi gin gii to tn kho di, nguy c h hng, hao ht, mt mt hng ho
cng ln. y cng l mt khon chi ph lin quan n tt c cc tn kho mc khc nhau.
Chi ph cho vic p ng khch hng: Nu lng bn thnh phm tn kho qu ln th n lm cn tr h thng
sn xut. Thi gian cn sn xut, phn phi cc n hng ca khch hng gia tng th kh nng p ng nhng
thay i cc n hng ca khch hng yu i.
Chi ph cho s phi hp sn xut: Do lng tn kho qu ln lm cn tr qui trnh sn xut nn nhiu lao ng
c cn n gii to s tc nghn, gii quyt nhng vn tc nghn lin quan n sn xut v lch trnh
phi hp.
Chi ph v cht lng ca l hng ln: Khi sn xut nhng l hng c kch thc ln s to nn tn kho ln.
Trong vi trng hp, mt s s b hng v mt s lng chi tit ca l sn xut s c nhc im. Nu kch
thc l hng nh hn c th gim c lng km phm cht.
Cc chi ph gim khi tn kho tng.
Chi ph t hng: Bao gm nhng ph tn trong vic tm kim ngun nguyn vt liu t nh cung cp, cc hnh
thc t hng. Khi chng ta sn xut mt l hng s pht sinh mt chi ph cho vic chuyn i qui trnh do s thay
i sn phm t giai on trc sang giai on tip theo. Kch thc l hng cng ln th tn kho vt t cng ln,
nhng chng ta t hng t ln trong nm th chi ph t hng hng nm s thp hn.
Chi ph thiu ht tn kho: Mi khi chng ta thiu hng tn kho nguyn vt liu cho sn xut hoc thnh phm
cho khch hng, c th chu mt khon chi ph nh l s gim st v doanh s bn hng, v gy mt lng tin i
vi khch hng. Nu thiu ht nguyn vt liu cho sn xut c th bao gm nhng chi ph ca s ph v qui trnh
sn xut ny v i khi dn n mt doanh thu, mt lng tin khch hng. khc phc tnh trng ny, ngi ta phi
c d tr b sung hay gi l d tr an ton.

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Chi ph mua hng: Khi mua nguyn vt liu vi kch thc l hng ln s lm tng chi ph tn tr nhng chi ph
mua hng thp hn do chit khu theo s lng v cc ph vn chuyn cng gim.
Chi ph cht lng khi ng: Khi chng ta bt u sn xut mt l hng th s c nhiu nhc im trong giai
on u, nh cng nhn c th ang hc cch thc sn xut, vt liu khng t c tnh, my mc lp t cn c
s iu chnh. Kch thc l hng cng ln th c t thay i trong nm v t ph liu hn.
Tm li: khi tn kho tng s c cc chi ph tng ln v c cc khon chi ph khc gim i, mc tn kho hp l s
lm cc tiu tng chi ph lin quan n tn kho.

K thut phn tch ABC trong phn loi hng tn kho:

K thut phn tch ABC thng c s dng trong phn loi hng ha tn kho, nhm xc nh mc quan trng
ca hng ha tn kho khc nhau. T xy dng cc phng php d bo, chun b ngun lc v kim sot tn
kho cho tng nhm hng khc nhau.
Trong k thut phn tch ABC phn loi ton b hng ha d tr ca n v thnh 3 nhm hng: Nhm A, nhm B
v nhm C. Cn c vo mi quan h gi tr hng nm vi s lng chng loi hng.
Gi tr hng ho d tr hng nm c xc nh bng tch s gia gi bn mt n v hng ho vi lng d tr
hng ho trong nm. S lng chng loi hng l s lng tng loi hng ho d tr trong nm.
Nhm A: Bao gm nhng hng ha d tr c gi tr hng nm cao nht, chim t 7080% so vi tng gi tr
hng ho s tr, nhng v mt s lng, chng loi th ch chim khong 1015% lng hng d tr.
Nhm B: Bao gm nhng loi hng ho d tr c gi tr hng nm mc trung bnh, chim t 1525% so vi
tng gi tr hng d tr, nhng v s lng, chng loi chng ch chim khong 30% tng s hng d tr.
Nhm C: Gm nhng loi hng c gi tr thp, gi tr d tr ch chim khong 5% so vi tng gi tr hng d tr,
nhng s lng chim khong 5055% tng s lng hng d tr.

S 7.1: Phn loi hng ha tn kho.

V d 7.1: Phn loi vt liu tn kho theo k thut phn tch ABC.

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Loivt liu

Nhu cu hng nm

% s lng

Gi n v

Tng gi tr hng nm

% gi tr

Loi

1.000

3,92

4.300

4.300.000

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Hoch nh tn kho - VOER

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2.500

9,80

1.520

3.800.000

34,15

1.900

7,45

500

950.000

8,54

1.000

3,92

710

710.000

6,38

2.500

9,80

250

625.000

5,62

2.500

9,80

192

480.000

4,31

400

1,57

200

80.000

0,72

500

1,96

100

50.000

0,45

200

0,78

210

42.000

0,38

10

1.000

3,92

35

35.000

0,31

11

3.000

11,76

10

30.000

0,27

12

9.000

35,29

27.000

0,24

Tng

25.500

100,00

8.030

11.129.000

100,00

Trong iu kin hin nay vic s dng phng php phn tch ABC c thc hin thng qua h thng qun tr d
tr t ng ho bng my vi tnh. Tuy nhin, trong mt s doanh nghip cha c iu kin t ng ho qun tr d
tr, vic phn tch ABC c thc hin bng th cng mc d mt nhiu thi gian nhng n em li nhng li ch
nht nh. K thut phn tch ABC trong cng tc qun tr c nhng tc dng sau:
Cc ngun vn dng mua hng nhm A cn phi nhiu hn so vi nhm C, do cn s u tin u t thch
ng vo qun tr nhm A.
Cc loi hng nhm A cn c s u tin trong b tr, kim tra, kim sot hin vt. Vic thit lp cc bo co
chnh xc v nhm A phi c thc hin thng xuyn nhm m bo kh nng an ton trong sn xut.
Trong d bo nhu cu d tr, chng ta cn p dng cc phng php d bo khc nhau cho nhm mt hng
khc nhau, nhm A cn c d bo cn thn hn so vi cc nhm khc.
Nh c k thut phn tch ABC trnh ca nhn vin gi kho tng ln khng ngng, do h thng xuyn thc
hin cc chu k kim tra, kim sot tng nhm hng.
Tm li, k thut phn tch ABC s cho chng ta nhng kt qu tt hn trong d bo, kim sot, m bo tnh kh
thi ca ngun cung ng, ti u ho lng d tr.

Tn kho ng thi im
Khi nim v tn kho ng thi im.
Hng d tr trong h thng sn xut v cung ng nhm mc ch phng nhng bt trc c th xy ra trong qu
trnh sn xut v phn phi. m bo hiu qu ti u ca sn xut kinh doanh, cc doanh nghip cn p dng

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cung ng ng thi im.

Lng d tr ng thi im l lng d tr ti thiu cn thit gi cho h thng sn xut hot ng bnh thng.
Vi phng thc t chc cung ng v d tr ng thi im m bo lng hng ho c a n ni c
nhu cu ng lc, kp thi sao cho hot ng ca bt k ni no cng c lin tc (khng sm qu cng khng
mun qu).
t c lng d tr ng thi im, cc nh qun tr sn xut ng thi im phi tm cch gim nhng bin
i do cc nhn t bn trong v bn ngoi ca qu trnh sn xut gy ra.

Nhng nguyn nhn chm tr ca qu trnh cung ng.

C nhiu nguyn nhn gy ra s chm tr hoc cung ng khng ng lc nguyn vt liu, hng ho. Nhng nguyn
thng xy ra l:
Cc nguyn nhn thuc v lao ng, thit b, ngun vt cung ng khng m bo cc yu cu, do c
nhng sn phm sn xut ra khng t yu cu v tiu chun, hoc s lng sn xut ra khng l hng phi
giao;
Thit k cng ngh, thit k sn phm khng chnh xc;
Cc b phn sn xut tin hnh ch to trc khi c bn v k thut hay thit k chi tit;
Khng nm chc cc yu cu ca khch hng;
Thit lp mi quan h gia cc khu khng cht ch;
H thng cung ng cha m bo ng cc yu cu ca d tr, gy mt mt, h hng,...
Tt c nhng nguyn nhn trn gy ra bin i lm nh hng n lng d tr trong cc giai on ca qu trnh
sn xut kinh doanh ca doanh nghip.

Bin php gim tn kho trong cc giai on.

Gim bt lng d tr ban u: nguyn vt liu d tr trong giai on u th hin chc nng lin kt sn xut
cung ng. Cch u tin, c bn nht, ph hp vi nn kinh t th trng, lm gim bt lng d tr ny l tm
cch gim bt nhng s thay i trong ngun cung ng v s lng, cht lng, thi im giao hng, s l cng
c ch yu t n trnh cung ng ng thi im.
Gim bt lng sn phm d dang trn dy chuyn sn xut: c loi d tr ny l do nhu cu thit yu ca qu
trnh sn xut, chu tc ng ca chu k sn xut. Nu gim c chu k sn xut th s gim c lng d tr
ny. Mun lm c iu , chng ta cn kho st k lng c cu ca chu k sn xut.
Gim bt lng dng c ph tng: loi d tr ny tn ti do nhu cu duy tr v bo qun, sa cha my mc
thit b. Nhu cu ny tng i kh xc nh mt cch chnh xc.
Gim thnh phm d tr: s tn ti ca s d tr ny xut pht t nhu cu ca khch hng trong tng thi
im nht nh. Do , nu chng ta d bo chnh xc nhu cu ca khch hng s lm gim c loi d tr ny.
Ngoi ra, t c lng d tr ng thi im, nh qun tr cn tm cch gim bt cc s c, gim bt s
bin i n np bn trong, y l mt cng vic cc k quan trng trong qun tr sn xut. Vn c bn t
c yu cu ng thi im trong qun tr sn xut l sn xut nhng l hng nh theo tiu chun nh trc.
Chnh vic gim bt kch thc cc l hng l mt bin php h tr c bn trong vic gim lng d tr v chi ph
hng d tr.

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Khi mc tiu dng khng thay i th lng d tr trung bnh c xc nh nh sau:

Mt trong nhng gii php gim n mc thp nht lng d tr (cung ng ng thi im) l ch chuyn lng
d tr n ni c nhu cu thc s, khng a n ni cha c nhu cu.

Cc m hnh tn kho
H thng lng t hng c nh thit lp cc n hng vi cng s lng cho mt loi vt liu khi vt liu
c t hng. Lng tn kho gim cho n mc gii hn no s c tin hnh t hng, ti thi im
lng hng cn li c tnhbng cch c lng s lng vt liu mong i c s dng gia thi gian chng
ta t hng n khi nhn c l hng khc ca loi vt liu ny.
Vic kim tra tn kho n gin nht l ng dng kiu h thng hai ngn. Trong kiu h thng hai ngn, tng loi vt
liu c gi trong hai ngn ca nh kho. Khi s dng, vt liu ngn ln c xi cho n ht, thi im ny
n hng mi c gi i v ngay lc vt liu trong ngn nh c s dng ht, tc l lng tn kho xi
cho n khi nhn c vt t mi, khi c hai ngn vt liu u y v chu k lp li.
Quyt nh ch yu ca h thng lng t hng c nh l xc nh s lng hng cn t cho mi n hng l
bao nhiu? v khi no th tin hnh t hng li?
Khi cc nh qun tr tc nghip phi quyt nh s lng ca mt vt liu t hng trong h thng t hng c
nh, khng c cng thc n gin no p dng cho mi tnh hung. Chng ta kho st y c lng ti u
n hng theo 3 kiu tn kho.

M hnh lng t hng kinh t c bn (EOQEconomic Order Quantity)

Vi nhng gi thit di y, s biu din m hnh EOQ c dng:

S 7.2a: M hnh EOQ

Cc gi thit p dng m hnh:

Nhu cu s dng nguyn vt liu hng nm (D) c xc nh v mc u;
Chi ph t hng (S) v nhn mt n hng khng ph thuc vo s lng hng;

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Chi ph tn tr (H) l tuyn tnh theo s lng hng tn kho.

Khng c chit khu theo s lng hng ho: iu ny cho php chng ta loi chi ph mua hng ho ra khi
tng chi ph;
Ton b khi lng hng ho ca n hng giao cng thi im;
Thi gian k t khi t hng cho n khi nhn hng c xc nh.
Mc tiu ca m hnh l nhm ti thiu ho tng chi ph d tr. Vi gi nh nh trn th c 2 loi chi ph bin i
khi lng d tr thay i, l chi ph tn tr (Ctt) v chi ph t hng (Cdh). C th m t mi quan h gia 2 li
chi ph ny bng th:

S 7.3b: M hnh EOQ

Nh vy, tng chi ph ca m hnh c tnh l:

Tng chi

TC ) = Chi ph t hang

Cdh ) + Chi ph tn tr

Ctt

Trong m hnh ny chng ta gi nh rng, s tip nhn n hng c thc hin cng ngay lp tc vo mt thi
im. Tuy nhin trong thc t thi gian t lc t hng n lc nhn hng c th ngn trong vi gi hoc rt di
n hng thng. Do , im t hng li c xc nh nh sau:

im t hang ( OP ) = Nhu cu ngay ( d ) x Thi gian ch hang ( t )

V d 7.2: Cng ty C tn kho hng ngn vale ng nc bn cho nhng th ng nc, nh thu v cc nh bn l.
Tng gim c x nghip, lu tm n vic c bao nhiu tin c th tit kim c hng nm nu m hnh EOQ
c dng thay v s dng chnh sch nh hin nay ca x nghip. ng ta bo nhn vin phn tch tn kho, lp

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bng phn tch ca loi vt liu ny thy vic tit kim (nu c) do vic p dng m hnh EOQ. Nhn vin phn
tch lp cc c lng sau y t nhng thng tin k ton: Nhu cu D = 10.000 vale/nm; Q = 400 vale/n hng
(lng t hng hin nay); chi ph tn tr H = 0,4 triu ng/vale/nm v chi ph t hng S = 5,5 triu ng/n
hng; thi gian lm vic trong nm l 250 ngy; v thi gian ch hng v mt 3 ngy (k t khi t hng n khi
nhn c hng).
Bi gii:
Nhn vin k ton tnh tng chi ph cho hng tn kho hin ti trong nm vi s lng hng mua mi ln l 400
vale:

Nh vy, khi s lng hng cn li trong kho l 120 vale th n v phi thit lp n hng bo cho cung cp bit
mnh ang cn hng, trong khong thi gian 3 ngy ch hng v th n v s dng lng tn kho cn li.

M hnh lng t hng theo l sn xut (POQProdution Order Quantity).

Gi thit ca m hnh:
Nhu cu hng nm, chi ph tn tr v chi ph t hng ca mt loi vt liu c th c lng c.
Khng s dng tn kho an ton, vt liu c cung cp theo mc ng nht (p), vt liu c s dng mc
ng nht (d) v tt c vt liu c dng ht ton b khi n hng k tip v n.
Nu ht tn kho th s p ng khch hng v cc chi ph khc khng ng k.
Khng c chit khu theo s lng.
Mc cung cp (p) ln hn mc s dng (d).
Cng thc tnh chi ph:

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S 7-3: M hnh POQ

M hnh EOQ cho l sn xut (POQ), hu dng cho vic xc nh kch thc n hng nu mt vt liu c sn
xut mt giai on ca qui trnh sn xut, tn tr trong kho v sau gi qua giai on khc trong sn xut hay
vn chuyn n khch hng. M hnh ny cho ta thy cc n hng c sn xut mc ng nht (p) trong giai
on u ca chu k tn kho v c dng mc ng nht (d) sut chu k. Mc gia tng tn kho l (pd) trong
sn xut v khng bao gi t mc Q nh trong m hnh EOQ.
V d 7.3: Tip theo v d 7.2, Cng ty C c b phn sn xut bn cnh c th sn xut vale ny ti ch theo l
sn xut, h mun nhp kho mt cch t t vo nh kho chnh dng. S liu c v mc sn xut ca cng ty
l p = 120 vale/ngy, nhu cu tiu th hng ngy l d = 40 vale/ngy. ng gim c quan tm n vic ny c nh
hng th no n lng t hng v chi ph hng tn kho hng nm, ng yu cu nhn vin phn tch tn kho
thy khon tit kim khi dng m hnh ny nh th no?

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M hnh EOQ, POQ vi chit khu theo s lng:

Cc nh cung cp c th bn hng ha ca h vi gi n v thp hn nu lng hng c t mua ln hn.
Thc t ny gi l chit khu theo s lng bi v nhng n hng s lng ln c th r hn khi sn xut v vn
chuyn. Vn quan tm trong hu ht cc quyt nh s lng ca n hng l t vt liu cho tng n
hng t c gi tt nht, nhng cng khng nn mua nhiu qu th chi ph tn tr lm hng khon tit kim do
mua hng em li.
Gi thit ca m hnh:
Nhu cu hng nm, chi ph tn tr v chi ph t hng cho mt loi vt liu c th c lng c.
Mc tn kho trung bnh hng nm c th c lng theo 2 cch:

Q : Nu gi thit ca m hnh EOQ ph bin: khng c tn kho an ton, n hng c nhn tt c mt ln, vt
2
liu c dng mc ng nht v vt liu c dng ht khi n hng mi v n.

Q ( p d ) : Nu cc gi thit m hnh POQ ph bin: khng c tn kho an ton, vt liu c cung cp theo mc
2p
ng nht (p) , s dng mc ng nht (d) v vt liu c dng ht ton b khi n hng mi v n.
S thit ht tn kho, s p ng khch hng v chi ph khc c th tnh c.
C chit khu s lng, khi lng t hng ln gi (g) s gim.
Cng thc tnh chi ph:

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Cc bc thc hin:
Bc 1: Tnh lng hng ti u tng mc khu tr. Ch rng chi ph tn tr mt n v hng nm (H) c th
c xc nh l t l phn trm (I%) ca gi mua vt liu hay chi ph sn xut. Tc l: H = I x g
Bc 2: Xc nh xem Q* tng mc c kh thi khng, nu khng th iu chnh cho ph hp vi tng mc khu
tr . mi mc khu tr, nu lng hng tnh bc 1 thp khng iu kin hng mc gi khu
tr, chng ta iu chnh lng hng ln n mc ti thiu c hng gi khu tr. Ngc li, nu lng hng
cao hn th iu chnh xung bng mc ti a ca mc khu tr, hoc khng cn tnh chi ph mc ny trong
bc 3.
Bc 3: S dng cng thc tnh tng chi ph hng tn kho tng mc khu tr v chn mc c tng chi ph nh
nht quyt nh thc hin.
V d 7.4: Tip theo s liu v d 7.3 vi chit khu theo s lng cng ty C, Nh cung cp loi vale (sn phm)
ngh cng ty C mua s lng nhiu hn so vi hin nay s c gim gi nh sau:
Mc khu tr

n gi (triu ng)

1 - 399

2,2

400 - 699

2,0

Trn 700

1,8

ng gim c yu cu nhn vin phn tch tn kho, nghin cu gi mi di 2 gi thit: n hng c nhn ngay
cng mt lc (EOQ) v n hng c nhn t t (POQ). Gi s chi ph tn tr c c tnh l 20% gi mua.
Bi gii

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12/17/2014 11:14 AM

Hoch nh tn kho - VOER

http://voer.edu.vn/m/hoach-dinh-ton-kho/aef917cb

So snh chi ph tng mc khu tr, ta thy mc chi ph mc khu tr 3 l nh nht nn quyt nh t mua
hng l 700 vale/n hng.

ng dng m hnh phn tch bin t xc nh lng d tr.

M hnh phn tch bin t thng c p dng trong iu kin nhu cu c thay i. K thut ny l kho st li
nhun cn bin trong mi quan h tng quan vi tn tht cn bin.
Nguyn tc ch yu ca m hnh ny l mt mc d tr nh trc, chng ta ch tng thm 1 n v d tr

12 of 15

12/17/2014 11:14 AM

Hoch nh tn kho - VOER

http://voer.edu.vn/m/hoach-dinh-ton-kho/aef917cb

nu li nhun cn bin ln hn hoc bng tn tht cn bin.

Gi (p) l xc sut xut hin nhu cu ln hn kh nng cung (bn c hng), nn ta c (1p) l xc sut xut
hin nhu cu nh hn kh nng cung (khng bn c hng).
Gi Lbt l li nhun cn bin tnh cho 1 n v, li nhun bin t mong i c tnh bng cch ly xc sut
nhn vi li nhun cn bin (p x Lbt); v Tbt tn tht cn bin tnh cho 1 n v, tn tht cn bin tnh c
(1 p)x Tbt.
Nguyn tc nu trn c th hin qua phng trnh sau:

T biu thc ny, ta c th nh ra chnh sch d tr thm mt n v hng ho nu xc sut bn c cao hn

hoc bng xc sut xy ra khng bn c n v hng ho d tr .
V d 7.5: Mt ngi bn l loi hng ti sng d b h hng (nu qu 1 ngy th khng th tiu th c)
hng ho ny mua vo vi gi 30.000 ng/kg v ang bn ra vi gi 60.000 ng/kg, nu khng tiu th c
trong ngy th s thit hi (d tn dng) l 10.000 ng/kg. Xc sut v nhu cu hng ngy nh sau:
Nhu cu (kg/ngy)

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Xc sut

0,03

0,07

0,20

0,30

0,20

0,15

0,05

Hy xc nh mc d tr bao nhiu c hiu qu?

Bi gii
u tin, ta xc nh xc sut xut hin nhu cu p, iu kin chp nhn mc d tr l:

Cn c vo xc sut v nhu cu cho, ta c th xc nh c xc sut p nh sau:

Mc d tr

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

XS xut hin nhu cu

0,03

0,07

0,20

0,30

0,20

0,15

0,05

XS bn c

1,00

0,97

0,90

0,70

0,40

0,20

0,05

So snh p vi kt qu

>0,25

>0,25

>0,25

>0,25

>0,25

<0,25

<0,25

Theo kt qu tnh ton c trong bng, mc d tr c hiu qu l 18 kg/ngy.

V d 7.6: Anh A c mt ki-t bn bo, trong thi gian qua s lng cc loi nht bo ca ki-t anh lun b tha
(bn khng ht) nn nh hng n vic kinh doanh. Anh xc nh lng nht bo ca ki-t mnh bn ra hng ngy
mc thp nht l 1.000 t v bn c nhiu nht l 1.600 t. Gi bo mua vo l 1.000 ng/t v bn ra vi
gin 1.500 ng/t, nu bn khng c t nht bo th s b thit hi 300 ng/t (bn giy vn). Hy xc
nh mc t hng l bao nhiu t bn ht v t li nhun cao nhn.
Bi gii

13 of 15

12/17/2014 11:14 AM

Hoch nh tn kho - VOER

http://voer.edu.vn/m/hoach-dinh-ton-kho/aef917cb

u tin, ta xc nh xc sut xut hin nhu cu p, trong iu kin hot ng ca ki-t bn bo l:

Mc tiu th thp nht ca kit l 1.000 t, tc l mc chc chn bn ht, tng ng vi xc sut xy ra l
1,0. V iu kin xc sut p 0,375 mi tiu th ht bo, do kh nng tiu th nht bo ca kit ny l:

Lng t hang =
Mc tiu thu thp nht + ( Pham vi tiu thu x xac sut tiu thu ht hang )

Nh vy s lng nht bo ca kit cn t hng ngy l:

Q = 1.000 +[( 1.6001.000)x(1,00,375)] = 1.375 t
C th hnh dung lng t hng qua s sau:
Mc d tr

1.000

1.600

XS xut hin nhu cu

1,0

0,375

0,0...

Phm vi bn ht hng Bn khng ht hng

Thch

Chia s

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