Identification of outliers, Leverage for GLMs is measured using the hat 6 Models for count data Se re ‘This chapter deals with GLMs where the response is a count. Examples of ‘count data models in insurance ace: studies ¢ In mortal imber of deaths in terms of insurance, we to explain the number of claims made ividuals or groups of individuals in terms of explanatory ber of of the ‘olor of the ear, engine capacity, previous claims experience, and $0 on, 6.1. Poisson regression Poisson regression, the mean variables a via an appropriate link. jereases the expected va Ale +1} - al6.1 Poisson regression 83 Table 6.1. Poisson models, chil Response variable Number of children Response distribution Poisson Link los Deviance 1650 Degrees of freedom 139 Parameter af a se ox “Tnercept LSS 8090 0 the effect is an increase, since 3 log link yields 4.000 4 0.1132 hrs oe Fig. 6.1, Number of children versus mother's gs adequate fits: 165.0 on 139 degrees 1.4.0n 139 degrees of freedom for the her's age. ‘These relationships during the childbearing years.iahmmineed 85 th 2 an indicator vari Table 6. lumber of children, Poisson m tf sven an. 4p AB Variables a5 discussed below. Population sie nem Source A dt? pvalue model as an offs “Sha imo ea Fo siny Tnkrmode! —ineepr 1984 on Age 165.0 1 294 <0.0001 are considered first, Tae nk model necep oo Age 141 230 tive binomial and Pois- ss of 0.5 atLog dain ate Leg dean ate Fig. 64, Observed and fted Swedish male death rates 6.2 Polsson overdispersion and negative binomial regression 93 Fig. 6.5, Fitted Swedish male death rates using negative binomial model yields a much better fit: a deviance of 2838 on $704 degrees of freedom, The {ited regression coefficients are displayed in Figure 6,5 ~ see code and output (on page 157, + Bp? + Band +o + Dptgd® AIC as a selection criterion for p and q yie And hence a model with 30 parameters, The AIC 53 898, compared to a value of 54 023 corresponding, cients, Figure 6,5 and the bottom ps fits are appropriat bredicted end the more recent data is seen a5 1 ‘SAS notes. Numerical problems often occur when there ae large number of Polynomial terms, asto avoid these numerical problems, These are genmod, but are av ee Dispersion Variance parameter @=1 on é=9102 wenn) Poisson and quas-Walheod (Pocon | Noone oatunderlying the overdispers Which are Of the two analyses are usual lent. The only difference between the Poisson variance) models is an parameter estimates. 64 Counts and frequencies Counts are often converted to freque! “exposed ion of age and other tisk factors. the proportion of deaths is the total number in the sample who are wodels for disease frequency the number of people exposed tothe risk frequencies, they cannot be modeled using a ch as the Poisson of ne; insurance data set, described on page 15. 62 nswdeaths2002 contains all-cause mortality New South Wales, Austral 63 7 Categorical responses ee Tespon Categorical variables take on one ofa discrete number of categories, Forexame 8 person is either male or fem: employment status and 50 on. ul variable is where the occurrence an! non-occurrence of the event Categorical variables tegories are ordered, althoug! the case that 4 is wwice as bad as 2 lis the response to bbe explained in terms of other explanatory variables. ‘Tis is dealt current chapter. 7.1 Binary responses Consider a binary response variat indicates whether a person die im is to explain y in robabilty that y = EI