analitic

Politicile petrolului OPEC iviziuni interne sau decizii strategice?

The author writes that amid the inexorable decline in the price of a barrel of oil, the meeting in Vienna
on November 27 of the 12 countries, members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) was perceived as a historic occasion to bring stability on the petroleum market. Alexandru
Georgescu, the author, notes that, instead, the meeting was an anti-climax, energy ministers being
unable to agree on the necessary measures to stabilize prices, and oil continued its free fall to below
USD 70 a barrel in December, representing a decrease of 40% compared to July this year. Georgescu
writes that if prices grow, OPEC countries are the most advantaged at least until a correction takes place
on the market. From a couple of USD per barrel in 1970 to over USD 20 in 1990, OPEC reached a price of
over USD 100 in 2008. OPEC now provides only 30-40% of the global oil consumption. A study has shown
that in 96% of the time, member countries of OPEC cheated and have produced and sold more than they
have been assigned. According to an analysis of Deutsche Bank, the threshold price for barrel from
which petrostates could balance the budget to avoid deficits is USD 184 for Libya, USD 131 to Iran and
Algeria, USD 123 for Nigeria, USD 118 for Venezuela, USD 105 for Russia, USD 104 for Saudi Arabia, for
Iraq, USD 81, for the United Arab Emirates, USD 78, for Kuwait USD 78 and USD 77 for Qatar. The author
notes that the "Democratization" of access to oil by spreading the "fracking" technology and maintaining
high prices for oil is good news for many manufacturers, which include even large consumers, eager to
regain a minimum of energy independence to a volatile international oil market. Meanwhile, the decline
in energy prices could lead to an improvement in the global economic outlook, despite local problems in
the countries that are producers.