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Definisi masalah
Daftarkan alternatif keputusan (solusi feasible)
Identifikasi berbagai outcome (states of nature)
Tentukan payoff (nilai hasil) utk masing2
kombinasi alternatif keputusan dengan
outcome.
5. Pilih model keputusan yg cocok
6. Terapkan model dan pilih keputusan optimal
High
Demand
Expand present
Facility
1.000.000
500.000
-100.000
Build New
factory
2.500.000
1.200.000
-500.000
License Another
manufacture
1.500.000
800.000
-50.000
0,4
0,4
0,2
Probabilitv (j)
Moderate
Demand
Low
Demand
Expected
Monetary Value
580.000
1.380.000
910.000
EOL(ai ) P( j ) R(ai , j )
j 1
OL = beda hasil optimal dan sebenarnya untuk kejadiannya tertentu
R(ai, j) = V*(j)-V(ai, j)
R(ai, j) = Opportunity loss alternatif keputusan ai karena kejadian j
V*(j) = Hasil terbaik untuk kejadian j
V(ai, j) = Hasil sebenarnya alternatif keputusan ai dan kejadian j
State of Nature (j)
Decision
Alternatives (ai)
Expand present
Facility
Build New factory
License Another
manufacture
Probabilitv (j)
High
Demand
Low
Demand
Moderate
Demand
Expected
Opportunity Loss
1.500.000
700.000
50.000
450.000
90.000
1.000.000
400.000
560.000
0,4
0,4
0,2
890.000
a2
a3
Moderate
Demand
Low
Demand
a2
Row
Min
Row
Max
Expand present
Facility
1,000,000
500,000
2,500,000
1,200,000
License another
manyfacturer
1,500,000
800,000
-50,000
-50000 1500000
maximum
-50000 2500000
maximin maximax
Solusi :
Proses analisis Keputusan dimulai pada akhir (ujung) pohon keputusan,
dan lakukan analisis sampai keputusan node 1.
EMV(node 6) = 0,8 (3.000.000) + 0,2 (700.000) = $ 2.540.000
EMV(node 7) = 0,3 (2.300.000) + 0,7 (1.000.000) = $ 1.390.000
Pada node 4 dan 5, keputusan harus dibuat
EMVmax (node 4) = 2.540.000 - 800.000 = 1.740.000,
EMVmax (node 5) = 1.390.000 - 600.000 = 790.000,
(Expand)
(Warehouse)
Bab 13
TEORI PERMAINAN & KEPUTUSAN STRATEGIS
Permainan Kooperatif
Matriks Payoff
utk Advertising Game
Firm B Dont
Advertise
Advertise
Advertise
10, 5
15, 0
6, 8
10, 2
Firm A
Dont
Advertise
Hasil analisis
A: tanpa
memperhatikan
B, advertising
adalah terbaik
B: tanpa
memperhatikan
A, advertising
adalah terbaik
Firm B Dont
Advertise
Advertise
Advertise
10, 5
15, 0
6, 8
10, 2
Firm A
Dont
Advertise
Hasil Analisis
Strategi Dominan
utk A & B adalah
advertise
Tidak hawatir
strategi
pesaingnya
Equilibrium dalam
strategi dominan
Firm B Dont
Advertise
Advertise
Advertise
10, 5
15, 0
6, 8
10, 2
Firm A
Dont
Advertise
Dominant Strategies
Im doing the best I can no matter what you do.
Youre doing the best you can no matter what I do.
Nash Equilibrium
Im doing the best I can given what you are doing
Youre doing the best you can given what I am doing.
Pertanyaan
Apa yg harus
dilakukan A?
(Petunjuk:
perhatikan
keputusan B)
Firm B Dont
Advertise
Advertise
Advertise
10, 5
15, 0
6, 8
20, 2
Firm A
Dont
Advertise
Sweet
Pertanyaan
Apakah ada Nash
equilibrium?
Jika tdk, kenapa?
Jika ya, kombinasi
strategi yg mana?
Crispy
-5, -5
10, 10
10, 10
-5, -5
Firm 1
Sweet
Ocean
C
0
Beach
200 yards
Prisoners Dilemma
Prisoner B
Confess
Dont Confess
-3, -3
0, -6
-6, 0
-1, -1
Prisoners Dilemma
Prisoner B
Strategi keduanya
mengaku (jika tidak ada
kordinasi) merupakan NE
Confess
dan juga dominant strategy
equilibrium, tapi tidak
mengarah ke pareto efficient. Prisoner A
Dont
Jika ada koordinasi (saling
Confess
percaya), strategi keduanya
tidak mengaku merupakan
NE dan pareto efisient.
Confess
Dont Confess
-3, -3
0, -6
-6, 0
-1, -1
Firm 2
Low Price
High Price
Repeated game
Kooperatif jika pesaing
kooperatif,
Noncooperative jika
pesaing noncoperative
(Tit-for-tat strategy)
Low Price
10, 10
100, -50
-50, 100
50, 50
Firm 1
High Price
Pure Strategy
Mixed Strategy
Player makes a random choice among two or
more possible actions based on a set of
chosen probabilities
Player B
Heads
Tails
Heads
1, -1
-1, 1
-1, 1
1, -1
Player A
Tails
Both watch
wrestling
Both watch
opera
Mixed Strategy
Jim chooses
wrestling
Joan chooses
wrestling
Joan
Wrestling
Wrestling
Opera
2,1
0,0
0,0
1,2
Jim
Opera
Persaingan Harga
Asumsikan Pasar duopoly yg produknya berbeda tapi
Biaya totalnya tetap (FC=20 & VC=0), dgn model
permintaan
perusahaan-1:
Q1 = 12 - 2P1 + P2
perusahaan-2:
Q2 = 12 - 2P2 + P1
Perush
1 : 1 P1 Q 1 20
P1 (12 2 P1 P2 ) 20
12 P1 - 2 P1 2 P1 P2 20
P1 = 3 + P2
perusahaan-2:
P2 = 3 + P1
P1
$6
$4
Kurva Reaksi Perush-1
Nash Equilibrium
$4
$6
P2
P= 4
P= 6
12, 12
20, 4
4, 20
16, 16
Perusahaan-1
P= 6