Maddon Era Starting Pitching Needs

Baseballs a weird sport. If you tried to explain to someone that teams are willing
to pay north of 9 figures for a guy to throw 5-7 innings every five days, you would be
looked at with astonishment. But, thats the sport today. And now, with possibly the best
coach in baseball signing with a team thats possibly starting 4-5 guys next year that
havent played a Major League Baseball game in their entire lives, youre going to see
some money in peoples pockets. A LOT of money. Theo Epstein broke the Curse of the
Bambino. And now, with the help of Jed Hoyer and newly acquired Joe Maddon, dont be
surprised if the Billy Goat goes down as well.
They have the offense, they have the defense, but wheres the pitching? Thats
what Epstein/Hoyer need to focus on. There are some big time names available this
offseason, ranging from Lester, to Big Games James, to Max Sherzer, but there are also
some cheaper guys they may want to go after as well. Ariball took a look at which guys
could possibly bring a world series trophy to Clark and Sheffield for the first time since
1908.
Big Time Starters (2):
Jon Lester- Has established himself as a top 10 pitcher in baseball in every
category. Knows how to win, inning eater, postseason wizard (and the Cubs
expect to be there as soon as this upcoming year). The Cubs have young
(inexperienced) arms in Arrieta and co., so they need a front-of-the-rotation arm,
and thats what Lester is. Hes a big, durable body that wont deteriorate as
quickly as other pitchers in the National league. Works hard fastball hard cutter
with a sinker just as dominant as the fastball. Nothing makes a ball club feel more
secure than a guy they know can give them 200 innings and not let that iffy
bullpen work that hard, and Lester will give them just that.

Lester keeps 18% of his pitches down, and thats the recipe for success for any
pitcher starting in little league (.140 BAA). Allows the cutter to slice in on righthanders 18% of the time (.127 BAA), with 20% staying on the inside part of the
strike zone as well. Does a fantastic job staying out of mistake pitch zones,

leaving only 13% of his total pitches in the upper third and above. Hitters 1-41
when in the upper center of the strike zone, usually going there on the 4-seam and
the cutter.

An amazing ability Lester has to show for his game is that he maintains a stable
release point in each outing. They are not identical night in and night out, but will
spike and drop with all the other pitches on his repertoire. Keeps the same
difference between his pitches. The curveball is substantially higher than others,
but that is natural at any level. Gives ability to spin the ball off and generate
vertical break. His 4-seam and cutter have identical release points, catching hitters
even more by surprise. When he can locate both of those and in the mid-90s,
opponents shouldnt even bother to get in the batters box.

Been a force to be reckoned with against left handed hitters, as they seem to roll
over ground balls and flood left field with fly balls. Overwhelmingly high amount
of balls in play come off the fastball. Only 6 base hits let up on off-speed pitches,
5 of which were hit to right field. Rarity that lefties square up a baseball off of
him and drive it to right or center. Lesters one of the best in the game, and hes
worth every penny his contract will give him. Your move, Theo.

Ervin Santana- Threw 4 shy of 200 IP this season for Atlanta. 60% of first
pitches were strikes. Slider was extremely deceptive, 44% of all swings on it were
misses compared to the 28% MLB average. Kept first pitch of an at bat down in
the strike zone 48% of the time, 25% is avg. If he gets ahead in the count to 0-2 or
1-2, hitters can guess correctly if they choose the slider. A little too predictable in
those counts, but it hasnt hurt him tremendously in his career thus far. Hes 31, 1
year older than Lester. However, hes had a year of experience in the NL, unlike
Lester. ERA just shy of 4 this year, but that will go down when he has a sense of

security. Less expensive than Sherzer and Shields. Will leave some room to go out
and get more pitching depth and possibly the needed veteran piece in the lineup.

2 big points that we need to discuss when talking about Ervin Santana:
1. In 819 batters faced, Santana only got behind 3-1 17 times.
2. Only walked 5 hitters on 4 pitches this year.
Wow.
Santana is most effective in a 1-2 count, King 68 people and holding opponents
to a .168 BAA. Take percentage was astronomical under the circumstances at
42.8%, so he was freezing a lot of hitters with the slider. His point of struggle was
in full counts, where he walked 34 guys, compared to the 21 Ks in that scenario.

Fastball had near 8-10 mph increase from slider and changeup, which are nearly
identical. He maintained steady velocity on all 3 pitches throughout the season
minus a slight blip on changeup speed. Changeup has the perfect speed, sitting
84-87 compared to a 92-95 mph fastball. Not much to argue with velocity-wise.

Times where his slider and fastball were used the same amount, which shows
confidence in his ability to locate his off-speed on a nightly basis. When his 2
primary pitches are on, he will abort the changeup almost entirely, which makes
him a tad less elite those outings. Seemed to change his pitch percentages every
start, as they did not have any gradual trends. Will start the year with minimal
confidence in his changeup, and will waver with it as the season progresses. If he
can use each pitch on command and possibly use a 4th pitch every now and again,
he will be worth much more than the contract he will get this offseason.

Glove hand stays up a tad too high at some points, letting the ball sail and causing more
herky-jerky movement in his torso. If he lowers his glove hand and reaches to his target,
he will be able to bust 95 at the knees on a consistent basis instead of playing the touchand-feel game on some nights. Better command of off-speed will then sprout off that.
Overall, this man is good. If he declines his qualifying offer with Atlanta, He could be a
fantastic addition for the North-siders.
Necessity Guys (2):
Brandon McCarthy- Hes been better than you think he has. He came into the
Bronx, with the majority of their starting rotation injured, in the middle of the
pennant race, and threw 14 above average games. Hes 31 years old, so he has
years under his belt, but he also has some left in his tank. McCarthy threw exactly
200 IP this season, so he can give innings to the Cubbies. K/BB ratio is 5.30, so
he can generate Ks without losing his command. Owns a .313 BAA against the
NL central excluding the Cubs. With more experience against them, that number
will surely go down. Above all, McCarthy possesses a great personality, and he
will bring character, humor, and leadership to a clubhouse that wont know what
to do with themselves, considering theyre all basically teenagers.

If there was one thing McCarthy can tweak this spring after he signs, its his
approach on the first pitch. First pitch Hit/Out ratio was WAY too even for his
liking, so if he can get more confidence in his off-speed (and maybe not be afraid
to hit the dirt) on the first pitch, this is an easy fix for a veteran like McCarthy.

One of his greatest attributes is that he runs high velocity pitches in the 90-94 area
for the sinker, cutter, and the newly developed fastball. Throws a curve north of
80, which he couples with his hard sinker and cut fastball. Overall, he can be well
worth his value as a role player in the 3 or 4 slot if he can keep up what he
managed to do the last 7-8 starts with the Yankees this past season.

Chris Young- Yes, the one that threw at Derrek Lee. Yes, the one whos 35 years
old. But, he did throw 165 IP this past year with 12 wins and a 3.65 ERA, which
is nothing to scoff at. Hes 610 and sits 84-86 mph with the fastball, so hes

deceptive as all get out. Hes got great command of the changeup, but only uses it
5% of the time. Works fastball 66%, slider 27%, changeup 5%, curveball 2%.
Sure he wont be a #1 or #2, but he can be a rock solid #4 or #5.

Youngs release point for every single pitch (including curveball) had an
extremely similar exit angle, and worked very well downhill into the bottom of
the strike zone. Deception and ability to hide his pitches makes Youngs 88 mph
fastball seem a lot harder coming off of his 610 frame. A lot later read on the
pitch makes the ball come onto the hitter much more quickly.

Alright, so he throws 87mph on a good day. But, velocity isnt expected from a 35
year old man. Will not blow by any hitter at any level, but he hasnt done such his
entire career. Hasnt shown much dip in velo since his days in San Diego,
astonishingly. Young won AL Comeback Player of the Year for crying out loud.
Whos to say he couldnt take that confidence into a situation with arguably the
best coach in baseball alongside him? No one. If Im Theo Epstein, Id seriously
consider giving this man a 2-3 year deal.
Possible Starting Rotation:
1. Lester/Arrieta
2. Arrieta/Wood/Santana
3. Santana/McCarthy/Hendricks
4. McCarthy/Young/Hendricks
5. Young/Jackson/Edwards/Vizcaino