I HC NNG

TRNG I HC BCH KHOA

KHOA CNG NGH THNG TIN

BO V LUN VN THC S
CHUYN NGNH KHOA HC MY TINH

XY DNG H THNG TR GIP NH GI

RI RO V BI THNG BO HIM XE C GII
HVTH: NGUYN NH LM KHNH
Lp: KHMT-K10 (Kha 2008-2011)
CBHD: TS. NGUYN THANH BNH
Nng, thng 04/2011

NI DUNG TRNH BY
Gii thiu ti
C s l thuyt
Phn tch v xut gii php k thut
Xy dng ng dng v nh gi kt qu th
nghim
Kt lun v hng pht trin

2/25

Gii thiu ti

S pht trin mnh m ca kinh t x hi

Nhu cu vn chuyn bng XCG tng trng mnh

Xe c gii

H tng giao thng

Cha p ng tt nhu cu lu thng

Tnh trng tc nghn

thc chp hnh giao thng

S lng: gia tng

Chng loi: a dng, phong ph

Cha tt

Tai nn giao thng

Bt k lc no, hu qu khn lng

M ra c hi kinh doanh ln cho cc hng bo him

XCG trong v ngoi nc
3/25

Gii thiu ti (tt)

Cng tc nh gi ri ro v bi thng BH XCG

Thc trng

Cha ch trng

S si
Cm tnh
Tnh cht
TC NG

Phc tp

Nhy cm cao
Nhn s

Chuyn mn su

Kinh nghim
Uy tn cng ty i vi khch hng

Hiu qu
kinh doanh

ti Xy dng h thng tr gip nh gi ri ro v bi thng

bo him xe c gii nghin cu v xut gii php k thut ph
hp khc phc cc hn ch c nu trn.
4/25

H h tr quyt nh

Nhu cu

Tr nh con ngi c gii hn nhn thc cng c gii hn

Gii hn: thi gian, kinh t, nhn lc, p lc cnh tranh

H h tr quyt nh Decision Support System

H thng tin my tnh ha

Giao tip ha
Kt hp tr lc con ngi v nng lc my tnh
Ci thin cht lng ca quyt nh

Bo him XCG cn h tr

nh gi ri ro: cao / thp / chp nhn c

Tip nhn / T chi bo him

T l ph

Chi tr bi thng
5/25

nh gi ri ro
Mi cng vic u tim n ri ro
nh gi ri ro

Tm hiu nhng ri ro c th v s lin quan n cng vic

Ch ra c th nhng ri ro c th gp
Xy dng cc bin php kim sot ri ro
Trnh nhng thit hi v ngi, ti sn v mi trng

nh gi ri ro tt cng vic tin hnh hiu qu

v an ton cao.

6/25

Cc yu t nh hng n ri ro XCG

Nguy c: Hng ha, o c, thc.

7/25

Thut ton C4.5

Nm 1993, J. Ross Quinlan pht trin C4.5 t ID3.

Gii thut C4.5

u vo

Mt tp d liu hun luyn (training data)

Mi record: cc thuc tnh m t + gi tr phn loi

u ra

Cy quyt nh phn loi d liu (decision tree)

Hy vng phn loi ng cc d liu cha gp trong
tng lai

8/25

Thut ton C4.5 V d

Xt bi ton phn loi cho khi nim:
C i chi tennis khng
Bng 1. Tp d liu hun luyn

9/25

Thut ton C4.5 V d (tt)

Hnh 1. Cy quyt nh cho khi nim c chi tennis khng

10/25

Phn tch hin trng

Bng 2. Tnh hnh kinh doanh - Chi nhnh Nng (Ngun BH AAA, 2007-2009)
VT: VN

11/25

Phn tch hin trng (tt)

Hnh 2. S liu kinh doanh Chi nhnh Nng (Ngun: Bo him AAA)
12/25

Phn tch hin trng (tt)

Hnh 3. S liu bi thng tn tht Chi nhnh Nng (Ngun: Bo him AAA)
13/25

Vn t ra

T l bi thng tn tht cao

nh hng n li nhun ca cng ty

D liu kinh doanh bo him XCG

Khi lng ln
Phc tp

Cn mt cng c phn tch v x l d liu khoa hc

Xy dng c s d on ri ro XCG nhanh chng
Ban iu hnh

Cn i doanh thu v bi thng

m bo hiu qu kinh doanh
Pht trin n nh, bn vng

14/25

 xut gii php

Gii

php k thut

Xy dng cy quyt nh bng gii thut C4.5

u im

X l khi lng d liu ln

Thi gian tnh ton nhanh
Phn loi d liu tt
chun xc cao
Trc quan sinh ng

15/25

Xy dng ng dng

Cc chc nng chnh

La chn ngun d liu
Tin x l d liu
Xy dng cy quyt nh
Chuyn cy v dng lut
Thng k t l li

16/25

Xy dng ng dng (tt)

Hnh 3. Kin trc tng th ca h thng

17/25

Xy dng ng dng (tt)

Hnh 4. M t qu trnh phn tch d liu

18/25

Kch bn th nghim

H thng hc cy quyt nh

D liu hun luyn

Dng tp lut d on mc ri ro XCG

D liu kim th

Chn 546 mu ngu nhin

Trong CSDL kinh doanh bo him ti AAA

Chn 240 mu
Tng ng vi 240 h s bi thng nm 2009

Nu t l li chp nhn c

c tnh li/l t doanh thu v s tin bi thng thc t.

19/25

D liu hun luyn

Bng 3. M t tp d liu hun luyn (Ngun: Bo him AAA, 2007 - 2009)

20/25

Cy quyt nh thu c
NSX = 12
STBT = 15%
KNLX = 2

T chi bo him !
Hnh 5. Cy quyt nh d on ri ro xe c gii
21/25

Kt qu th nghim
Bng 4. Kt qu th nghim

Bng 5. c tnh li/l bi thng xe c gii

Pht hin

Tit kim
22/25

nh gi kt qu th nghim
Cy quyt nh trc quan, tp lut n gin
Tc x l nhanh tit kim thi gian, nhn s
khi x l nhng khi d liu ln.
Do d liu nhiu, mt s thuc tnh thiu gi tr

T l li

Tp hun luyn
Tp kim th

9,3%
12,5%

C th chp nhn c

H thng hot ng n nh
p dng ng b cho 50 chi nhnh l rt cn thit.

23/25

Kt lun

Vn dng gii thut C4.5

Phn tch x l d liu cc nm qua

Xy dng m hnh d on d liu mi trong tng lai

xut mt gii php k thut kh thi

ng dng trong cng tc nh gi ri ro XCG

Kt qu thc nghim c trin vng
Cung cp lnh o cng c h tr nghip v kp thi
Ph hp vi iu kin thc t ti cc n v Bo him

M ra mt kh nng mi cho vic ng dng cy quyt nh

trong lnh vc khai thc bo him.

24/25

Hn ch - Hng pht trin

Hn ch

Ch x l d liu Excel

p dng cho nghip v xe c gii

Phm vi th nghim nh

Hng pht trin

Th nghim vi khi lng d liu ln nh gi li

tin cy

Nghin cu thut ton C5.0, l mt ci tin ca C4.5

nng cao hiu sut v ti u

Pht trin cho cc nghip v bo him khc

M rng kt ni n nhiu h qun tr CSDL khc nhau

25/25