Wilkin Case

Submitted By :
Atrayee Bhattacharya FT151035
Dhulipala Bharadwaj FT151008
Tanmoy Bose FT151019
Souvik Dey FT153079
Soumendu Mukhopadhyay FT151034
Vivek Anand FT153113
Anand M FT152020
Manzoor FT152099
Lokesh Chandana FT152087

Case Problems & Issues

Problems :
To identify a forecasting technique so as to forecast the
demand for existing products as well as new products.
Issues :
Best fit model ??
Problems associated with each forecasting model ??
Performance of the used model ??
Fundamental things to be accounted while looking at forecast
performance ??
Managerial issues to be addressed ??
Quantification of data to capture the issues ??

Methods Available
Static Methods : demand observation shows trend and
seasonality
Dynamic methods:
Moving average: demand observation shows neither
trend nor seasonality
Simple exponential : demand observation shows neither
trend nor seasonality
Holts model : demand observation shows trend only
Winters model : demand observation shows trend and
seasonality
Multiple Linear Regression
Demand = Systematic + Random
Thus, Static method cannot be used as in this even if new
demand is observed, the estimates of level, trend and
seasonality within a systematic component do not vary.
We have considered PVC family to do our analysis and

Multiple Linear Regression

Multiple Linear Regression can also be carried upon the data
Results of regression Analysis
Regression between Quarterly sales and Unemployment
Rate, Bank Prime Loan Rate & Housing
R2 = 0.129
Adjusted R2 = -0.0887
P-value = 0.6316
At 95% confidence interval, the regression is not
statistically significant.
The

values of R2 tells us that the percentage of

fluctuation in the dependent variable, Quarterly sales
explained by the predictor variables - Unemployment
Rate, Bank Prime Loan Rate and Housing starts is low
hence we discard causal forecasting for predicting
demand of fire valves.

Winters Model
To take into account both trend & seasonality, the model used
is Winters Model
Winters model is the best fit model and is based on the past
sales data.
Corrections for seasonality are made in the sales data and
sales are forecasted accordingly
As per regression calculation,
R2 = 0.8459
Adjusted R2 = 0.83
P value = 0
Sales = 41798.01 + 1921.162*(Period)
Winters model is found out to be the best model for demand
forecasting and the significance values mentioned above reiterate the same.
Close to 85% of demand is captured by the line of best fit for
PVC family.