Vietnam Fearless Forecasts January 2015 VN

TI THIT TRN PHC HI
Trnh by: Marc Townsend, Tng Gim c iu hnh CBRE Vit Nam
Th nm, ngy 08 thng 01 nm 2015
NHNG TIN TT TRONG NM 2014

TIU IM TH TRNG
C S H TNG
PHP CH
XU HNG TON CU
Chnh ph vn tip tc duy

tr nhng cam kt tht cht
ti chnh v gim n.
VN-Index vt mc 640
im trong thng 9
Xut khu in thoi di
ng cng c nn kinh t
Li sut cho vay gim
Mc gi du!
Bt u xy dng tuyn
Metro s 1
Thm nhiu d n cu,
ng, tuyn cao tc v
cc h tng khc i vo
hot ng
Ban hnh Lut v quyn

s hu nh ti Vit Nam
ca ngi nc ngoi.
D tho Lut trong Kinh
doanh Bt ng sn: M
hnh a s hu ti cc ta
vn phng
TPP v AEC m ra nhiu

th trng mi cho Vit
Nam
BT NG SN
U T
TIN TC V CBRE
Thng ln thuc v ton th

trng nh , khng ch
gii hn khu vc nh
gi r
Khu vc bn l tng cng
m rng
Cc ngun u t, huy
ng vn v cc qu thc
tn BS d tip cn v vi
chi ph thp hn
Mt nm bn rn vi lnh
vc t vn, nh gi v
nghin cu th trng
Mang nhng sn phm tt
hn n vi khch hng
Cc hot ng st nhp
ngy cng mnh m
Th trng phc hi
Th Thim dy sng tr li
CBRE VIT NAM | TI THIT TRN PHC HI
NHNG CU HI M CN B NG
VN N XU
GI CHO VAY TN DNG 30 NGN T
Trn thc t, chuyn g ang din ra?
Cn thm gii php y nhanh qu trnh cho vay ca

gi h tr ny.
VAMC thu v VND3,500 t (US$164 triu), ch tng

ng vi 3,9% ca khon n xu tr gi VND90,000 t
($4.2 t) trc mua t cc ngn hng
C S H TNG D N
Th cn cng tc qun l d n?
Cc khu phc hp ngy mt phc tp hn, y khng cn l
sn chi cho gii nghip d na.
C PHN HA
2014 - 2015: K hoch c phn ha 532 doanh nghip
LI NHUN T TH TRNG TH CP
2014: 143 doanh nghip cng hu c c phn ha

(t 71% mc tiu nhng gp i so vi nm 2013)
Cc d n c thc s c bn ht?
Trin vng tch cc

ca nn kinh t Vit Nam
VIT NAM XP TH 2 TON KHU VC V TC

TNG TRNG GDP
Tng trng GDP khu vc APAC (2014-2015)
TNG TRNG
Bi cnh chnh tr
ci thin
Tng trng GDP theo nm (%)
12
CHM DN
Xut khu phc hi nh

nhu cu tng trn ton cu
Trung Quc tng

trng chm t
phn ng dy
chuyn
Bu c vo
nm 2016
Gi du
gim
10
8
6
4
2
2014F
2015F
Malaysia
Taiwan
Philippines
Australia
New Zealand
China
Japan
Hong Kong
Singapore
South Korea
Thailand
India
Indonesia
Vietnam
Trung
bnh
2004
- 2013
Average
2004
- 2013
Ngun: CBRE Research, Oxford Economics, T12/2014.

5
CHI PH HUY NG VN THP HN

Li sut v lm pht
25
Li sut u i trong 12 thng u:

Techcombank: 9.49%
Vietcombank: 7.99%
ACB: 8.9%
Li sut (%)
20
15
10
0
2007
2008
CPI
trung CPI
bnh(y-o-y)
(y-o-y)
Average
Ngun:
2009
2010
Li
sut ti chitrate
khu
Rediscounting
2011
Refinancing rate
2012
2013
2014
Li
sut cho
sut tin
Lending
ratevay Li
Deposit
rategi
Tng cc Thng k Vit Nam, Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam.
TH TRNG CHNG KHON SI NG HN

641
603
Mt vi th trng chng khon trong khu

vc, % tng trng theo nm:
544
Thi Lan (SET): up 21,4%;
Indonesia (JCI): up 27,0%;
Singapore (SGX): up 11,7%;
U.S. S&P 500 (SPX): up 11,2%;
VNIndex (VNI): up 8,0%.
504 : VN-Index
C phiu bt ng sn
Cc cng ty nim yt mi
2013
Ngun: Bloomberg
2014
11
13
Ngun: Cafef, Thng 12/2014.

7
GI DU GIM K LC
Crude oil price
Gold price
Ngun: www.nasdaq.com, Thng 1/2015.
Ngun: www.giavang.com.vn, Thng 1/2015.
Gi du tng mnh t nm 2009 v 2010, nhng bt u gim nhanh t gia nm 2014.

nh hng tt:
nh hng xu:
Thc y tiu dng nh vo chi ph kho vn v

chi ph nguyn liu gim ( khong -3%)
Chi ph xy dng gim
Chi ph vn hnh to nh c th thp hn

=> Gim ph dch v?
8
T gi VND/USD suy yu.
Gi du gim dn n ht thu ngn sch khong

3 t USD.
Tuy nhin nh hng s khng ln (nh vo d

tr ngoi hi , thng d thng mi, vn FDi
n nh, lm pht thp)
TP.HCM SO SNH VI KHU VC CHU -TBD

Trin vng u t v pht trin ci thin
Trin vng u t, 2015
Trin vng pht trin, 2015
TP.HCM
* Kho st c thc hin da trn gn 400 cuc phng vn c nhn vi cc nh lnh o ln ca th trng bt ng sn trn ton cu.
Ngun: Emerging Trends in Real Estate Asia Pacific 2015 Survey.
CC D N TI KHI CNG TIU BIU

Vista Verde (TP.HCM) CT:
CapitaLand + Thin c
The Park Residence
(TP.HCM) - CT MIK
Goldmark City (HN)

CT: Vit Hn
Le Meridien (TP.HCM)
- CT:Tien Phuoc + 990
Sapphire Palace (HN)

CT: H Ni Sng Hng
Gemek Tower (HN) CT:
Mekong Land + Geleximco
City Gate Tower (HCMC)

CT: Creed + NBB
Theo bo co ca thc tp sinh ti CBRE:

- TP.HCM: 39 d n tm ngng
- H Ni: 27 d n tm ngng
10
THEO BCI CHU

D n ang xy dng, thay i theo nm
Compared
to 2013
2014 so snh
vi 2013
Compared
to 2012
2013 so snh
vi 2012
Percentage change
Percentage change
Compared
to 2012
2013 so snh
vi 2012
D n tng lai (2014 2025), thay i theo nm
300%
200%
100%
0%
-100%
D n ang
thc hin
HCMC Hanoi
Da
Nang
Can
Tho
Khanh Vung
Hoa
Tau
Hai
Phong
TP.HCM
H
Ni
Nng
Cn
Th
Khnh
Ha
BR-VT
Hi
Phng
Vn phng
105
87
14
10
12
Bn l
46
35
11
10
Khch sn /
Cn h DV
17
10
11
Cn h bn
126
121
17
Tng
294
250
52
17
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
Da
Nang
HCMC Hanoi
D n tng
lai
(2014-2025)
Compared
to 2013
2014 so snh
vi 2013
Can
Tho
Khanh Vung
Hoa
Tau
Hai
Phong
TP.HCM
H
Ni
Nng
Cn
Th
Khnh
Ha
BR-VT
Hi
Phng
Vn phng
178
271
55
26
11
28
12
Bn l
71
149
36
14
20
Khch sn /
Cn h DV
30
40
26
38
15
Cn h bn
215
306
81
15
20
10
30
39
Tng
494
766
198
40
78
83
36
Ngun: www.bciasia.com; CBRE Vit Nam, T12/2014
Ngun: www.bciasia.com; CBRE Vit Nam, T12/2014
11
2
Thay i chnh sch to c hi mi
cho u t bt ng sn
HIP NH THNG MI T DO (FTA)

Thm nhiu c hi Vit Nam chuyn mnh
FTA gia Vit Nam v Nga, Belarus v
Kazakhstan
(k kt vo Thng 12 2014)
Cng ng kinh t Asean
(d kin k kt trong nm 2015)
Hip nh i tc Kinh t Chin
lc xuyn Thi Bnh Dng
Hip nh Thng mi T do Vit
Nam - EU
(ang m phn)
Tham gia vo TPP, v thc y vic thc hin mnh m cc cam kt thng mi song
phng gia Vit Nam v M c th gip tng thng mi hai chiu gia Vit Nam v Hoa
K ln n 61,3 t la vo nm 2020. V kim ngch xut khu dt may ca Vit Nam sang
Hoa K c th tng ln 22 t la vo nm 2020.
Ngun: Gim c iu hnh Amcham Vit Nam

13
MT SN CHI BNH NG & MINH BCH HN

Cho th trng nh bn
Thng 7/2014, Cch tnh din tch
cn h
Thng 11/2014, Quyn s hu ca ngi

nc ngoi
C hiu lc t 01/07/ 2015
C hiu lc t 08/07/2014
Tnh t MP TRONG ca tng
bao quanh cn h
BAO GM:
Ban cng ring ca cn h
(nu c);
Din
Vch ngn bn trong cn h
tch bn
(nu c)
KHNG BAO GM:
Ct bn trong cn h (nu c);
Hp k thut bn trong cn h
(nu c)
Din
Nu ban cng /gia c phn din
tch ban tch tng chung th tnh t mp
trong ca tng chung.
cng
C nhn nc
ngoi (CNNN)
Doanh nghip
c vn u t
nc ngoi
Sn phm
S lng sn
phm
Mc ch
Thi hn s
hu
14
C PHP i vi tt c cc i tng c cp
th thc vo Vit Nam
C PHP i vi cc qu u t nc ngoi, cc
ngn hng nc ngoi, cc chi nhnh, vn phng i
din ca doanh nghip nc ngoi ang hot ng
ti Vit Nam.
Cn h chung c + Nh gn lin vi t
S cn h s hu bi ngi nc ngoi khng c
vt qu 30% tng s cn ca ton d n; hoc 250
bit th/ nh ph ti khu vc hnh chnh c th
Ti sn c th c s hu bi ngi nc ngoi
vi mc ch cho thu li, mua bn, tha k hoc th
chp.
50 nm v c th c gia hn;
C nhn nc ngoi kt hn vi cng dn Vit Nam
s c s hu vnh vin.
CHO THU LI V HN NA
Th trng vn phng
Thu ti sn v cho thu li
Lut hin hnh
T thng 7/2015
Cng ty c vn u t
nc ngoi khng c
cho thu li ti sn khng
thuc quyn s hu
Cng ty c vn u t nc
ngoi c php cho thu li
ti sn h ang thu
Mua li ta nh xy dng s dng

Lut hin hnh
T thng 7/2015
Cng ty c vn nc ngoi
ch s hu ta nh khi h
chnh l ch u t ta
nh
Cng ty c vn nc ngoi
c php mua li ta nh
xy dng s dng
15
MUA LI DIN TCH VN PHNG

Pht trin th trng vn phng c v chiu su ln chiu rng
Nm 2014 cho php thu di hn/mua t din
tch vn phng
HN - Hoang Thanh Tower
HN - Hapulico Complex
Nm 2015 tr i thm
nhiu din tch vn phng
bn hoc cho thu di hn
HN - CEO Tower &

Vinaconex 9
HCMC - SUNRISE CITY
HN - Diamond Flower
HN - Hong Ha Center
HCMC - SAIGON AIRPORT PLAZA
HCMC - PETROLAND
HN - Mo Market
HCMC - PRINCE RESIDENCE
HCMC - SSG TOWER
HCMC - GALAXY 9
16
CHO PHP THNH LP CNG TY BN L 100%

VN U T NC NGOI
11/01/2010 11/01/2015
c php thnh lp cng ty lin

doanh, nh u t nc ngoi ch
c s hu nhiu nht 50% vn
iu l
11/01/2015 tr i
Cho php cc doanh nghip 100% vn u t nc ngoi hot ng

110/155 ngnh ngh: Bn bun, Bn l, i l hoa hng, Kinh doanh
a cp, Nhng quyn kinh doanh
Tuy nhin, Kim tra nhu cu kinh t - Economic Needs Test (ENT) vn l mt ro cn thng mi k
thut : Yu cu cc nh bn l nc ngoi phi vt qua bi kim tra ny nu mun m c s bn l th hai
tr i ti Vit Nam, tr khi doanh nghip t mt s yu cu nht nh.
Trong ngn hn, cam kt ny s cha mang li s thay i r rt v cc nh bn l
nc ngoi tham gia th trng c mt thi gian:
nh
hng
Cc nh bn l trong nc vn c bo v nh ro cn - ENT, tuy nhin quy nh
khng c p ng cho cc chui ca hng tin ch c quy m nh (<500m2)
vs.
17
3
u t C s h tng:
Cht xc tc cho s tng trng
C S H TNG TP.HCM
K nguyn mi cho trung tm Si Gn
2015
ng Nguyn Hu trc y
nh chp ngy 03/01/2015
19
Din mo mi cho trung tm Si Gn
C S H TNG TP.HCM
Nhng cy cu v cu vt mi c hon thnh
Cu L Vn S
Qun Ph Nhun
Thng xe ngy 30/4/2014
Cu Kinh Thanh Da
Qun Bnh Thnh
Cu Kiu
Qun 1 v Qun Ph Nhun
2014
Cu Hu Giang
Qun 6
2015
Cu Bng
Qun 1 & Qun Bnh Thnh
20
Cu vt ti QL 1A Hng l 2
Qun Bnh Tn Ch u t: IDICO-IDI
TUYN NG ST TH S 1 V CC D N NH
NEW EASTERN BUS STATION
Metro Tower
LONG BINH DEPOT
The Emerald
First Home Thu Duc

Chp trc Khch sn Rex, ngy 07/01/2015
The Vista An Phu

Masteri Thao Dien
Thao Dien Pearl
The Eastern
First Home D.9
Cantavil Premier The Estella

Lexington Residence Imperia An Phu
Vinhomes Central Park
21
BN O TH THIM THC TNH/CH I
Th Thim trc y
Th Thim hm nay (Chp thng 12/2014)
Cu Th Thim 2 trong tng lai
Cu i b Th Thim trong tng lai

22
CU NHT TN: CNG CHO MI CA H NI
23
SN BAY QUC T
NI BI
ng c: Qua Cao
tc Bc Thang Long
Ni Bi
ng mi: Qua Cu
Nht Tn ng V
Nguyn Gip
Thi gian di chuyn:

~1h
Thi gian di chuyn:

~35
CU NHT TN
V.2
V.2
24
C S H TNG H NI
Tuyn ng st th thc y tin xy dng cc d n BS
Kh nhiu d n hot ng tch c dc tuyn ng st Ct Linh H ng
1
1 PCC1 Complex
2 The Lavender
2
5
2
3
3 Hattoco Tower
Tuyn Ct Linh H ng
(13,5km)
320/419 cc, 5,4/13,3 km dm,
7/12 ga hon thnh
D kin hon thin: 2016.
4 Diamond Blue
5 Sapphire Palace
25
C S H TNG H NI
Nh ga T2 Sn bay quc t Ni Bi hon thnh
Sn bay quc t Ni Bi Trc
Nm hon thnh
2001 (Ga T1 - 90.000 m)

2014 (Ga T2 - 140.000 m2 )
V sau khi c nh ga T2
Vn u t: 900 triu USD
Cng sut tng thm:
Lng hnh khch 13 triu/ nm (s liu 2013)
10 15 triu hnh khch/nm (2015-2030)
Cng sut ti a
9 triu qu ti ti T1
200 chuyn bay/ngy
S chuyn
bay/ngy
170 chuyn bay (so snh vi 370

chuyn/ngy ca sn bay Tn Sn
Nht)
Tng =
25 triu khch/nm & 370 chuyn bay/ngy
Gim s chnh lch khi so snh vi Sn bay

quc t Bng Cc (Suvarnabhumi). Sn
bay ny phc v 51 triu hnh khch trong
nm 2013 vi 800 chuyn bay/ngy
26
4
i nt v mt thnh ph
si ng
CN H BN
Cho bn trong nm 2014
TP.HCM:
37 d n
14.807 cn
~60%
bn ht
~47%
bn ht
28
H Ni:
31 d n
16.200 cn
CN H BN
S cn h cho bn mi trong nm 2014
S cn h cho bn theo nm
25,000
25,000
20,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
Unit
S
cn
Unit
15,000
10,000
5,000
5,000
0
2010
TP.HCM
HN
0
2010
Luxury
Ngun: CBRE Vit Nam, Q4/2014.
Luxury
2011
TP.HCM
HN
2011
High-end
2012
TP.HCM
HN
2012
Mid-end
High-end
Mid-end
29
2013
TP.HCM
HN
2013
Affordable
2014
TP.HCM
HN
2014
Affordable
CN H BN
TP.HCM ghi nhn s cn h bn cao nht trong nm 2014
S cn bn theo nm
bn
~17.000 cn
18000
18000
16000
Sold Unit
SSold
cn
bn
Unit
16000
14000
bn
10.700 cn
14000
12000
12000
10000
10000
8000
8000
6000
6000
4000
4000
2000
2000 0
0
TP.HCM2010
HN
2010
TP.HCM2011
HN
2011
TP.HCM
HN
2012
HCMC 2012
Hanoi
HCMC
30
TP.HCM
HN
2013
2013
TP.HCM2014
HN
2014
Hanoi
CN H BN
Nhng thay i trong thit k
First
Nhmtier
1
Before
Trc 2012
2012 3%
Second
Nhm tier
2
S thay i ca loi hnh cn h TP.HCM
Trc 2012
2012 7%
Before
After
Sau 2012 12%
35%
45%
45%
1BR
28%
59%
After
Sau 2012
2012 9%
16%
27%
63%
2BR
14%
3BR
7%
27% 1%
4BR+
Vinhomes Central Park:
1BR: 52 m2
2BR: 73 m2
3BR: 124 m2
Masteri Tho in:
1BR: 51 m2
2BR: 59 m2
3BR: 86 m2
Nhm
1
tier
First
Before2012
2012
Trc
65
After
2012
Sau 2012
48
78
Second
Nhm tier
2
S thay i ca kch thc cn h TP.HCM
Before2012
2012
Trc
50
91
After
2012
Sau 2012
(*): Nhm 1: Cn h hng sang v cao cp ; Nhm 2: Cn h trung cp v bnh dn

31
110
45 62
125
100
300 m2
200 m2
110
80
1BR
250 m2
120 m2
2BR
3BR
4BR+
CN H BN
S thay i v gi
HCM: Gi th cp
H Ni: Gi th cp
$2,000
Gi Th cp (US$/m2)
Gi th cp (US$/m2)
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
$0
2011
Cao cp
High-end
2012
Trung
Cp
Mid-end
2013
2011
2014
2012
High-end
Cao cp
Bnh dn
Affordable
2013
Trung cp
Mid-end
2014
Affordable
Bnh dn
Gi cho bn th cp trong phn khc cao cp v trung cp c H Ni v TP.HCM u tng trong khi
s lng cn h tn kho tip tc gim.
Gi cho bn th cp trong phn khc bnh dn H Ni tip tc gim trong khi TP.HCM gi vn
tng i n nh khng i qua cc nm.
32
CN H BN
Ch u t trong nc chim a s
Vinhomes Nguyn Ch Thanh Vingroup: 378 cn
Vinhomes Central Park VinGroup : 10.000 cn
D N CAO CP LN
TP.HCM
H NI
D N KHC
Orchard Garden
NovaLand: 154 cn
Ehome 3
Nam Long: 2.000 cn
FLC Group: 483 cn
FLC Group: 400 cn

33
CN H BN
Cc hot ng tip th trc m bn rt si ng
D n mi c thng bo sm n ngi mua thng qua mng li bn hng

hng hu v mnh m, cng vi cc hot ng marketing trc m bn;
Mini-blog, facebook v cc trang web khng chnh thc ca d n do cc c

nhn mi gii lp ra rt ph bin tip cn ngi mua
Tin nhn qung co c s dng rng ri a thng tin n ngi mua

34
BN L
Ngun cung mi trong nm 2015
Trung tm thng mi
Ngun cu n nh t F&B
VINCOM TH C
SC VIVOCITY
AEON MALL H NI
Qun Th c
GFA: 27.860 m2
Qun 7
GFA: 62.000 m2
Qun Long Bin

GFA: 108.000 m2
D kin m ca: T1/2015
D kin m ca: Q1 2015
D kin m ca : 2015
KHCH SN GRAND SAIGON
Qun 1
Cho Burger King, Popeyes, Dunkin
Donuts thu
D kin m ca: T1/2015
Siu th
Bazaar
SAIGON SQUARE 3
HNG VNG SQUARE
AEON CITIMART
Qun 3
GFA: 3.100 m2
Qun 5
GFA: 9.500 m2
Qun G Vp
Khai trng: 1/01/2015
Khai trng: 31/12/ 2014
Khai trng: T1/ 2015

35
BN L
Pht trin mng li ca cc nh bn l trong nc
VINCOM MASTERI THAO DIEN
GFA: 120.000 m2
D kin khai trng: Q4 2016
VinMart
H NI
m 100 siu th
v 1.000 ca
hng tin li
trong 3 nm ti.
VINCOM CENTER
NGUYN CH
THANH
VINCOM CENTER
STARBOWL
VINCOM CENTER
THY KH
VINCOM CENTER
THNH PH
GIAO LUU
VINCOM CENTER
H LONG
GFA: 227,000 sm
GFA: 7.170 m2
GFA: N/A
GFA: 23.140 m2
GFA: 30.800 m2
Tnh n T12/2014,
VinMart khai
trng mi 10 ca
hng tin ch ti
TP.HCM.

36
BN L
V c nh bn l nc ngoi!
2020
2014
2013
2012
2008
Khai trng
Lotte Mart ti
M rng ra ng Bnh Dng v
Nai and Nng Phan Thiet
Mua li Pico
Khai trng
TTTM tng hp
Lotte ti H Ni
Khai trng
ca hng
u tin ti
Tp.HCM
a 60
siu th
vo hot
ng ti
Vit Nam
Ministop Trung Nguyen

(25% share)
2011
Aeon Mall
TP.HCM
1/ 2014
Aeon Mall Bnh

Dng
n nm 2017, m rng ra 30 rp chiu
Aeon Mall H Ni
11/ 2014
2015
2020
20 i siu th
Hp tc thnh cng vi Fivimart v Citimart
37
BN L
D on doanh thu
bn l nm 2015
Cc yu t kch cu chnh
Vit Nam
+9,3%
Tng trng kinh t n nh, t l dn s thu nhp trung bnh tng

Vn FDI thc y ngun cu
Trung Quc
+7,7%
Tng trng kinh t v tiu dng t khu vc kinh t c nhn

Tng trng ti cc thnh ph Loi 1 thp hn trung bnh c nc
Dn dt s hi phc ca nn kinh t v dn tng trng tr li t t st gim

trong nm 2014
Xu hng tiu dng ca ngi bn a chuyn sang cc sn phm khng thuc
phn khc hng sang
Hng Kng
+6,3%
Malaysia
+4,5%
Tc tng trng gim do nh hng ca nn kinh t

6% GST c hiu lc t thng 4/2015
i Loan
+4,5%
Thu nhp kh dng tng nh vo th trng vic lm v kinh t phc hi
New
Zealand
+2,9%
Tng trng chm t khi chnh ph kim hm th trng nh
+2,2%
Chi tiu ci thin nh vo th trng nh v vic lm tt ln
Hn Quc
+2,1%
Nhu cu tiu dng gim vi t l n cao

c h tr t khch du lch trong khu vc
Tng trng doanh thu bn l b hn ch bi n t cc h gia nh (chim 75%

tng GDP nm 2013)
Khng hong lao ng l ro cn cho vic m rng ca nh bn l
Tr hon tng thu tiu dng (t 8% ln 10%)

Chi tiu ca du khch c h tr bi ng yn xung gi
Singapore
Nht Bn
+1,7%
+0,6%
Ngun: Oxford Economics (17 Thng 11 2014)

38
5
Xu hng cho thu - Ta nh
Vn Phng Xanh
& 360O Workplace
THAM GIA VO HP NG THU VN PHNG XANH

Tnh bn vng Xut pht t nhu cu ca Ch nh, Khch
thu v Nh u t
Hp ng thu vn phng xanh cng tng t nh mt bn hp ng cho thu
truyn thng nhng c ch nh v khch thu b sung nhng iu khon nhm
tng cng qun l v ci thin cc chc nng thn thin hn vi mi trng ca
ta nh. Bn hp ng ny c rng buc v mt php l v cc iu khon trong
c hiu lc trong sut thi hn ca hp ng.
- UK Better Buildings Partnership

CH TA NH
CH U T
KHCH THU
Tng nhu cu thu
Gim thiu chi ph vn hnh
Hn ch tc ng ca cc
quy nh ti cc ta nh VP
Gn gi gi tr ti sn
Nng cao nng sut v sc bn
ca nhn vin
Hon thnh trch nhim x hi
Thu ht nh u t
Hn ch tc ng ca cc
quy nh
Gim thiu ri ro u t
Bo v cc ti sn tng lai
ca doanh nghip
H tr bo co doanh nghip
40
CHNG CH LEED TI CC TA NH CHU

Cc ta nh VP chnh c trao tng chng ch LEED
PARK VIEW GREEN
TWO INTERNATIONAL
PHP
NIKKEN
SEKKEI
I BC 101
PARK VENTURE
ECOPARK
AIA CAPITAL
CENTER
ENERGY COMPLEX
VIETNAM
PRESIDENT
PLACE
ZUELLIG
BUILDING
ASIA SQUARE
PIXEL BUILDING

41
A IM LM VIC HIN I
HIU QU LM VIC quan trng hn vic HIN DIN ti vn phng
VP KHCH HNG
VP V TINH
VP DCH V
TAXI
SNH SN BAY
KHCH SN
55%
45%
THI GIAN LM VIC
THI GIAN LM VIC
CON
NGI
KHNG
GIAN
CON
NGI
QUN CAFE
TH VIN
CNG
NGH
42
VN PHNG CHO THU

5 ngnh dn u trong nhu cu thu
Nm ngnh dn u trong nhu cu thu VP nm 2014 (da trn yu cu thu CBRE nhn c)
H Ni
TP.HCM
17%
29%
Cng ngh/
in t/ Vin
thng
Ti chnh/
Ngn hng/
Bo him
12%
10%
Ti chnh/ Ngn hng/

Bo him
11%
Cng ngh/ in t/
Vin thng
10%
Xy dng/ Bt
ng sn
Sn xut
9%
Sn xut
Y t
6%
Gio dc
Ngun: CBRE Vit Nam, Q4 2014
Da trn nhng yu cu thu CBRE nhn c.
6%
5%
Thu ngoi
43
VN PHNG CHO THU

Quc tch khch thu
H Ni
TP HCM
52%
33%
Vit Nam
Chu u
9%
24%
7%
8%
Nht Bn
Vit Nam
4%
6%
Hn Quc
Hn Quc
3%
5%
Singapore
Ngun: CBRE Vit Nam, Q4 2014

Da trn nhng yu cu thu CBRE nhn c.
44
VN PHNG CHO THU

Nhu cu thu vn phng Hng A tng trng ti mt s th trng
T l hp th (NLA, 000 m2)
TNG TRNG
N NH CHM LI
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Average
(2010-2014)
Trung bnh
(2010-2014)
Auckland CBD
Singapore
Seoul
Guangzhou
Brisbane CBD
Bangkok CBD
Beijing
Ho Chi Minh City
Taipei
Hanoi
Sydney CBD
Manila CBD
Melbourne CBD
Hong Kong
Kuala Lumpur
Jakarta CBD
Tokyo
Shenzhen
Mumbai
New Delhi
Bangalore
Shanghai
2015F
Ngun: CBRE Research, Thng 12/2014.

45
VN PHNG CHO THU
TP HCM
Ngun cung tng lai TP HCM v H Ni
VIETCOMBANK
Tng DT:
LIM TOWER 2
Tng DT: 20,467
55,000m2
m2
VIETTEL OFFICE &

TRADE CENTRE
SSG TOWER
Tng DT: 37,434 m2
Tng DT: 65,971m2
Thng 12 - 2015
H Ni
Thng 1- 2015
APEX TOWER
Tng DT:
21,000m2
HANDICO TOWER MO MARKET

Tng DT:
40,000m2
Tng DT:
46,657m2
INTRACOM 2
Tng DT:
18,000m2
DIAMOND FLOWER
TOWER
Tng DT: 20,000m2

46
6
Chng 2 Cc tnh ven bin
Nng, Ph Quc,
H Trm, H Long
MT NM NNG NG CHO TH TRNG DU LCH

6 ng bay quc t mi c a
vo hot ng( t TP.HCM v Ph
Quc)
Khch quc t n Vit Nam tng
u
PASSPORT
Min th thc cho 7 nc (Nga,

Nht Bn, Hn Quc, an Mch,
Na Uy, Thy in v Phn Lan)
Cc tnh ven bin khng ngng ci
thin v tr trn bn du lch
M ca nh ga quc t hin i T2
ti H Ni (138.000 m2; cng sut
~10 triu lt ngi/nm)
48
KHCH SN TI THNH PH
TP.HCM Hot ng xy dng din ra si ni
MGALLERY
BAY SINGAPORE
LE MERIDIEN
HUNG SEN
L DUY
BN THNH
SIVERLAND
DES ART SAIGON

RITZ-CARLTON
(THE ONE)
KHCH SN
2-3 SAO
KS MAJESTIC
M RNG
49
KHCH SN VEN BIN

Du lch ven bin ang tr nn thu ht hn
H TRM Nhiu d n u t vo khu vc nh chnh
sch ni lng lut chi ti song bi cho ngi Vit
Nam v c s h tng ci thin
D n ca Sungroup
Halong Star
MI N - BNH THUN C s h tng c ci thin

Cao tc Long Thnh Du
Giy sp hon thnh
H LONG QUANG NINH

ang thu ht cc nh u t nh vo vic
ci thin c s h tng, xut ni lng
lut chi ti song bi cho ngi Vit
Nam, v s h tr t chnh quyn a
phng
PH QUC sn bay quc t mi a vo hot ng gip thu ht khch du lch
SN BAY MI
115 chuyn/tun (cng sut hin ti)
187 ngi/chuyn ti a (cng sut hin ti)
760.000 ngi/nm ti a(cng sut hin ti)2.700.000
ngi/nm ti a (cng sut d kin vo 2020)
50
KHCH SN VEN BIN

Chng II cho th trng Nng
Thng hiu khch sn mi trn th trng
Crown Plaza (Giai

on 2) - 2017
Ibis B N Hills Accor 2015
Fusion Suites
Nng - 2015
Hilton Nng 2016
Ocean Hotel and

Spa - 2015
Tourane - 2015
Sheraton Nng
Cc d n ang xy dng
DHC Marina DHC

Group - 2015
Vincom Center
Nng 2015

51
Avatar - 2015
7
u t mua bn sp nhp (M&A)
& u t trc tip nc ngoi
U T
Chu Thi Bnh Dng l khu vc u t a thch nht
Ngun:
CBRE Research, Thng 11/2014.
53
U T TRONG KHU VC
S lng giao dch trong vng 24 thng va qua
S lng giao dch trong vng 2 nm qua
Office
Vn phng
Hotel sn
Khch
Hng Kong
Kng
Hong
Singapore
Thi Lan
Thailand
Malaysia*
Vit
Nam
Vietnam
Philippines
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
* D liu cho Malaysia c ghi nhn bt u t thng 3/2013

Ngun:
RCA, Thang 12/2014.
54
GIAO DCH U T CHNH

DIAMOND PLAZA
CORNER STONE
GEMADEPT TOWER
METRO CASH & CARRY
V tr: TP.HCM
V tr: H Ni
V tr: TP.HCM
V tr: Vit Nam
Bn bn: POSCO
Bn bn: VIB
Bn bn: Gemadept
Bn bn: Metro Cash & Carry Vietnam
Bn mua: Lotte Shopping
Bn mua: Daibiru
Bn mua: Tp on CJ
Bn mua: Berli Jucker
Loi BS: Bn l
Loi BS: Vn phng
Loi BS: Vn phng
Loi BS: Bn l
Gi tr: n/a
Gi tr: 60,1 triu USD
Gi tr: 45 triu USD
Gi tr: 877 triu USD
KHCH SN THNG LI
MOVENPICK SI GN
INDOCHINE PARK TOWER
OCEAN MART
V tr: H Ni
V tr: TP.HCM
V tr: TP.HCM
V tr: Vit Nam
Bn bn: Hanoi Tourist
Bn bn: VinaCapital
Owner: Ocean Group
Bn mua: BRG
Bn mua: Tung Shin
Bn bn: Mulpha
International Bhd
Loi BS: Khch sn
Loi BS: Khch sn

Gi tr: n/a
Ngun:
RCA v bo ch. Thang 12/2014.
Bn mua: Lemongrass
Master Fund
Bn mua: Vingroup
Loi BS: Bn l
Loi BS: Cn h dch v

55
T SUT U T
T sut li nhun cho thu cn h cao cp VN so vi Khu vc
T sut li nhun cho thu ti mt s d n cn h
cao cp in hnh H Ni
8%
06%
06%
06%
6%
4%
2%
BNG CC
4-6%
PHNM PNH
10%
HNG KNG
4%
0%
2012
2013
Pha Ty
Trung tm
2014
T sut li nhun cho thu ti mt s d n cn h

cao cp in hnh TP.HCM
H NI 5-6,5%
TP.HCM 6-8%
8%
SINGAPORE
3%
08%
08%
08%
6%
4%
2%
(*) Nhng d n in hnh:

HN: Trung tm: Vincom Park Place, Pacific Place, Hong Thnh Tower;
HN: Pha Ty: Keangnam Landmark, Indochina Plaza H Ni, Royal City
HCMC: Qun 7: Sunrise City, Sky Garden, Panorama,
HCMC: Qun 2: Xi Riverview Palace, The Estella, The Vista
0%
2012
2013
Qun 7 7
District

56
Q2 2014
YTD
Qun 2 2
District
Tm li
TRIN VNG 2015

TP.HCM/ MIN NAM
TH TRNG
PHN KHC
GI THU/BN
T L HP TH
H NI/ MIN BC
GI THU/BN
T L HP TH
D n mi
VN PHNG
D n lu nm
Khu vc trung tm
BN L
Ngoi trung tm
Cao cp
NH BN
Trung cp
Bnh dn
Khu vc ni thnh
KHCH SN
Khu vc bin
CN H DCH V
Hng A
t
KHU CNG NGHIP

Nh xng/Kho
Ngun: CBRE Vit Nam..
58
CBRE D BO 2015
Xu hng ni bt
V tr, v tr, v tr!
Dch chuyn, dch chuyn, dch chuyn!
Tin mt, tin mt, tin mt!
Kh nng chi tr, Kh nng chi tr, Kh nng chi tr!
Mi quan tm hng u: ri ro, tun th (compliance), thm nh php l (due
diligence) v c ch qun tr v kim sot xung t (governance).
S tr li ca th trng nh ngh dng (nh hn).
Cha kha nm trong kch thc cn h: tuy nh nhng vn c a chung.

Vit Nam vn nm trong nhng nc ng Nam dn u v t sut li
nhun cho thu cn h v vn phng (t sut cho thu cn h ti Singapore
3%, Hng Kng 4%, Vit Nam ~7%-8%).
Tip th v thng hiu ngy cng quan trng (tn dng cng ngh tt hn)
Nh u c (ngoi mong i) quay tr li th trng v c nh t ln na
xut hin khp mi no ng.
59
CBRE D BO 2015
Xu hng ni bt
Thch nghi v sng st.
Thi im en ti sau lng nhng nhng vn ca ton cu v khu
vc vn cn .
Chnh trang th (mt din mo hin i hn).
Nhn s (Nhn ti, Nhn ti, Nhn ti thm ch trong ngnh Bt ng sn).
Thng tin th trng y , minh bch v kp thi.
K thng v ngi thua.
Cha ph h cho cc nh sn xut Hn v Nht.
S dng t khng ng mc ch.
Steven Gerrard chia tay Liverpool
sau 25 nm gn b vi u trng Anfield
ti LA Galaxy
u thu v u gi.
Nghin cu v Pht trin ch mt vi thng, khng phi rng r vi nm.

Dch v thu ngoi.
60
CBRE D BO 2015
Xu hng ni bt
S xut hin nhng loi hnh khc Nh dnh cho sinh vin, cn h SOHO,
nh hu tr, nh dnh cho cng nhn, xy theo yu cu, bn v cho thu
li, v qu REIT.
n lc xem xt li k hoch u t vo cc thnh ph cp 3 4.
Hoc l Mua bn; hoc l Mua cho thu.
Tuyn tu in ngm v cc d n cn h dc tuyn.
Vn nn kt xe vn tip din khi doanh s bn xe t/ xe my tng vt trong

khi ng s khng m rng thm v TP.HCM n 2.000 tr s sinh mi tun.
Ta nh Xanh tr thnh ti bn lun chnh, l yu t PHI C.
HNG SANG Hy thn trng vi k vng ca bn.
Sc khe tinh thn v th cht

Vn cn thch thc v nh gi, Ngun vn,
S minh bch v Kinh nghim
61
MNG GING SINH

12 Bo co chuyn ca CBRE APAC v CBRE Vit Nam
62
TI CBRE, CHNG TI KINH DOANH V HA NHP

CNG TH TRNG BT NG SN
Mi qu
BO CO QU
Hng tun
CP NHT BO
Theo dng s kin

LUN IM & BO CO CHUYN
Hng thng
S TAY TH TRNG
63
Hng qu
IM TIN TH TRNG
CHN THNH CM N!
Vui lng in vo Phiu kho st.
kin ng gp ca Qu v rt quan trng vi chng ti.
2015 Cng ty TNHH CBRE Vit Nam. Tt c t liu trnh by trong bo co ny, tr khi c nhng ghi ch c th, thuc tc quyn v c quyn s dng ca CBRE. Thng tin s dng trong
bo co, bao gm nhng d on, c thu thp t cc ngun thng tin m chng ti cho l ng tin cy tnh n thi im pht hnh. Chng ti khng nghi ng v tnh chnh xc ca cc
thng tin nn s khng kim chng ngun tin v khng bo m, oan chc hay i din cho cc thng tin ny. c gi c trch nhim t nh gi s tng quan, chnh xc, tnh ton vn
v cp nht ca nhng thng tin trong n phm ny. Bo co ny ch nhm mc ch thng tin, dnh ring cho cc khch hng v i ng chuyn gia ca CBRE, v khng c s dng
hay xem nh mt li cho mi hay ng cho mi mua hay bn hay ng k chng khon hoc cc cng c ti chnh khc. Tt c t liu ny u c bo lu bn quyn v ton b ti
liu hay ni dung trong hay bt k bn sao no ca n khng c thay i di bt k hnh thc no, chuyn tip, sao lu hay pht tn n bt k bn no khc m khng c s cho
php trc bng vn bn ca CBRE. Nghim cm mi hnh vi pht hnh n phm khng ghi r bn quyn hay chuyn tip bo co nghin cu ca CBRE. CBRE s khng chu trch nhim
cho bt k tn tht, h tn, chi ph pht sinh hay ph tn gy ra bi bt k i tng no s dng hoc da vo thng tin trong n phm ny.
64

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TI THIT TRN PHC HI

NHNG TIN TT TRONG NM 2014

Chnh ph vn tip tc duy

Ban hnh Lut v quyn

TPP v AEC m ra nhiu

Thng ln thuc v ton th

CBRE VIT NAM | TI THIT TRN PHC HI

Trn thc t, chuyn g ang din ra?

Cn thm gii php y nhanh qu trnh cho vay ca

VAMC thu v VND3,500 t (US$164 triu), ch tng

2014: 143 doanh nghip cng hu c c phn ha

CBRE VIT NAM | TI THIT TRN PHC HI

Trin vng tch cc

VIT NAM XP TH 2 TON KHU VC V TC

Tng trng GDP theo nm (%)

Xut khu phc hi nh

Trung Quc tng

Ngun: CBRE Research, Oxford Economics, T12/2014.

CBRE VIT NAM | TI THIT TRN PHC HI

CHI PH HUY NG VN THP HN

Li sut u i trong 12 thng u:

Tng cc Thng k Vit Nam, Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam.

CBRE VIT NAM | TI THIT TRN PHC HI

TH TRNG CHNG KHON SI NG HN

Mt vi th trng chng khon trong khu

Thi Lan (SET): up 21,4%;

Indonesia (JCI): up 27,0%;

Singapore (SGX): up 11,7%;

U.S. S&P 500 (SPX): up 11,2%;

VNIndex (VNI): up 8,0%.

Ngun: Cafef, Thng 12/2014.

CBRE VIT NAM | TI THIT TRN PHC HI

Crude oil price

Ngun: www.nasdaq.com, Thng 1/2015.

Ngun: www.giavang.com.vn, Thng 1/2015.

Gi du tng mnh t nm 2009 v 2010, nhng bt u gim nhanh t gia nm 2014.

Thc y tiu dng nh vo chi ph kho vn v

Chi ph xy dng gim

Chi ph vn hnh to nh c th thp hn

T gi VND/USD suy yu.

Gi du gim dn n ht thu ngn sch khong

Tuy nhin nh hng s khng ln (nh vo d

TP.HCM SO SNH VI KHU VC CHU -TBD

Trin vng pht trin, 2015

CBRE VIT NAM | TI THIT TRN PHC HI

CC D N TI KHI CNG TIU BIU

Goldmark City (HN)

Sapphire Palace (HN)

City Gate Tower (HCMC)

Theo bo co ca thc tp sinh ti CBRE:

CBRE VIT NAM | TI THIT TRN PHC HI

THEO BCI CHU

D n tng lai (2014 2025), thay i theo nm

Ngun: www.bciasia.com; CBRE Vit Nam, T12/2014

Ngun: www.bciasia.com; CBRE Vit Nam, T12/2014

CBRE VIT NAM | TI THIT TRN PHC HI

HIP NH THNG MI T DO (FTA)

Ngun: Gim c iu hnh Amcham Vit Nam

CBRE VIT NAM | TI THIT TRN PHC HI

MT SN CHI BNH NG & MINH BCH HN

Thng 11/2014, Quyn s hu ca ngi

CBRE VIT NAM | TI THIT TRN PHC HI

Mua li ta nh xy dng s dng