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MACRO Economics Assignment
MACRO Economics Assignment
MGT-301
MGT-301
Assignment
On
MACROECONOMICS
COURSE # MGT 301
Submitted to:
Dr. Faruq Ahmed
Professor,
Department of Management Studies,
University of Dhaka.
Submitted by:
Perpetual
Section: A
B.B.A. - 11th Batch
Department of Management Studies,
University of Dhaka.
MGT-301
Serial
No
Name
Roll
No
Ramjanul Ahsan
02
19
31
Safayet Rahman
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Letter of Transmittal
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Table of Content
Monetary policy of Bangladesh
No.
Part 01 (Prologue)
Page No.
1.
05
2.
06
3.
07
4.
09
5.
11
6.
15
7.
15
8.
Developing countries
16
Introduction
17
2.
20
3.
Development challenge
25
Introduction
27
2.
27
3.
31
4.
Bibliography
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Part 01
Prologue
1. Overview of the Topics
Monetary policy rests on the relationship between the rates of interest in an economy,
that is the price at which money can be borrowed, and the total supply of money.
Monetary policy uses a variety of tools to control one or both of these, to influence
outcomes like economic growth, inflation, exchange rates with other currencies and
unemployment. Where currency is under a monopoly of issuance, or where there is a
regulated system of issuing currency through banks which are tied to a central bank,
the monetary authority has the ability to alter the money supply and thus influence the
interest rate (in order to achieve policy goals). The beginning of monetary policy as
such comes from the late 19th century, where it was used to maintain the gold
standard.
A policy is referred to as contractionary if it reduces the size of the money supply or
raises the interest rate. An expansionary policy increases the size of the money supply,
or decreases the interest rate. Further monetary policies are described as
accommodative if the interest rate set by the central monetary authority is intended to
spur economic growth, neutral if it is intended to neither spur growth nor combat
inflation, or tight if intended to reduce inflation.
There are several monetary policy tools available to achieve these ends. Increasing
interest rates by fiat, reducing the monetary base, and increasing reserve requirements
all have the effect of contracting the money supply, and, if reversed, expand the
money supply. Since the 1970s, monetary policy has generally been formed separately
from fiscal policy. And even prior to the 1970s, the Bretton Woods system still
ensured that most nations would form the two policies separately.
Within almost all modern nations, special institutions (such as the Bank of England,
the European Central Bank or the Federal Reserve System in the United States) exist
which have the task of executing the monetary policy and often independently of the
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executive. In general, these institutions are called central banks and often have other
responsibilities such as supervising the smooth operation of the financial system.
The primary tool of monetary policy is open market operations. This entails managing
the quantity of money in circulation through the buying and selling of various credit
instruments, foreign currencies or commodities. All of these purchases or sales result
in more or less base currency entering or leaving market circulation.
Usually the short term goal of open market operations is to achieve a specific short
term interest rate target. In other instances, however, monetary policy might instead
entail the targeting of a specific exchange rate relative to some foreign currency or
else relative to gold. For example in the case of the USA the Federal Reserve targets
the federal funds rate, the rate at which member banks lend to one another overnight.
The other primary means of conducting monetary policy include: (i) Discount
window lending (i.e. lender of last resort); (ii) Fractional deposit lending (i.e. changes
in the reserve requirement); (iii) Moral suasion (i.e. cajoling certain market players to
achieve specified outcomes); (iv) "Open mouth operations" (i.e. talking monetary
policy with the market).
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The advancement of monetary policy as a pseudo scientific discipline has been quite
rapid in the last 150 years, and it has increased especially rapidly in the last 50 years.
Monetary policy has grown from simply increasing the monetary supply enough to
keep up with both population growth and economic activity. It must now take into
account such diverse factors as:
exchange rates;
credit quality;
A small but vocal group of people advocate for a return to the gold standard (the
elimination of the dollar's fiat currency status and even of the Federal Reserve Bank).
Their argument is basically that monetary policy is fraught with risk and these risks
will result in drastic harm to the populace should monetary policy fail.
Most economists disagree with returning to a gold standard. They argue that doing so
would drastically limit the money supply, and throw away 100 years of advancement
in monetary policy. The sometimes complex financial transactions that make big
business (especially international business) easier and safer would be much more
difficult if not impossible. Moreover, shifting risk to different people/companies that
specialize in monitoring and using risk can turn any financial risk into a known dollar
amount and therefore make business predictable and more profitable for everyone
involved.
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Monetary Policy:
Inflation Targeting
Price
Targeting
Monetary
Target
Market
Variable:
Interest rate on overnight
debt
Level Interest rate on overnight
debt
The growth in money
Aggregates
supply
Fixed
Exchange The spot price of the
Rate
currency
Gold Standard
Mixed Policy
CPI
change
The different types of policy are also called monetary regimes, in parallel to
exchange rate regimes. A fixed exchange rate is also an exchange rate regime; The
Gold standard results in a relatively fixed regime towards the currency of other
countries on the gold standard and a floating regime towards those that are not.
Targeting inflation, the price level or other monetary aggregates implies floating
exchange rate unless the management of the relevant foreign currencies is tracking the
exact same variables (such as a harmonized consumer price index).
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Inflation targeting
Under this policy approach the target is to keep inflation, under a particular definition
such as Consumer Price Index, within a desired range.
The inflation target is achieved through periodic adjustments to the Central Bank
interest rate target. The interest rate used is generally the inter-bank rate at which
banks lend to each other overnight for cash flow purposes. Depending on the country
this particular interest rate might be called the cash rate or something similar.
The interest rate target is maintained for a specific duration using open market
operations. Typically the duration that the interest rate target is kept constant will vary
between months and years. This interest rate target is usually reviewed on a monthly
or quarterly basis by a policy committee.
Changes to the interest rate target are made in response to various market indicators in
an attempt to forecast economic trends and in so doing keep the market on track
towards achieving the defined inflation target.
This monetary policy approach was pioneered in New Zealand. It is currently used in
the Euro zone, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Sweden, South
Africa, Turkey, and the United Kingdom.
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Monetary aggregates
In the 1980s several countries used an approach based on a constant growth in the
money supply. This approach was refined to include different classes of money and
credit (M0, M1 etc). In the USA this approach to monetary policy was discontinued
with the selection of Alan Greenspan as Fed Chairman.
This approach is also sometimes called monetarism.
Whilst most monetary policy focuses on a price signal of one form or another this
approach is focused on monetary quantities.
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being backed by hard currency and eliminates any worries about a run on the local
currency by those wishing to convert the local currency to the hard (anchor) currency.
These policies often abdicate monetary policy to the foreign monetary authority or
government as monetary policy in the pegging nation must align with monetary policy
in the anchor nation to maintain the exchange rate. The degree to which local
monetary policy becomes dependent on the anchor nation depends on factors such as
capital mobility, openness, credit channels and other economic factors.
Managed Float
Officially, the Indian Rupee (INR) exchange rate is supposed to be 'market
determined'. In reality, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) trades actively on the
INR/USD with the purpose of controlling the volatility of the Rupee - US Dollar
exchange rate - within a narrow bandwidth. (i.e. pegs it to the US Dollar)
Gold standard
The gold standard is a system in which the price of the national currency as measured
in units of gold bars and is kept constant by the daily buying and selling of base
currency to other countries and nationals. (i.e. open market operations, cf. above). The
selling of gold is very important for economic growth and stability.Today this type of
monetary policy is not used anywhere in the world, although a form of gold standard
was used widely across the world prior to 1971. For details see the Bretton Woods
system. Its major advantages were simplicity and transparency.
Mixed policy
In practice a mixed policy approach is most like "inflation targeting". However some
consideration is also given to other goals such as economic growth, unemployment
and asset bubbles. This type of policy was used by the Federal Reserve in 1998.
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Since monetary policy is one instrument of economic policy, its objective can not be
different from those of overall economic policy. The three important objectives of
monetary policy are:
i.
ii.
iii.
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Many central banks or finance ministries have the authority to lend funds to financial
institutions within their country. By calling in existing loans or extending new loans,
the monetary authority can directly change the size of the money supply.
Interest rates
The contraction of the monetary supply can be achieved indirectly by increasing the
nominal interest rates. Monetary authorities in different nations have differing levels
of control of economy-wide interest rates. In the United States, the Federal Reserve
can set the discount rate, as well as achieve the desired Federal funds rate by open
market operations. This rate has significant effect on other market interest rates, but
there is no perfect relationship.In other nations, the monetary authority may be able to
mandate specific interest rates on loans, savings accounts or other financial assets. By
raising the interest rate(s) under its control, a monetary authority can contract the
money supply, because higher interest rates encourage savings and discourage
borrowing. Both of these effects reduce the size of the money supply.
8. Developing countries
Developing countries may have problems operating monetary policy effectively. The
primary difficulty is that few developing countries have deep markets in government
debt. The matter is further complicated by the difficulties in forecasting money
demand and fiscal pressure to levy the inflation tax by expanding the monetary base
rapidly. In general, central banks in developing countries have had a poor record in
managing monetary policy. This is often because the monetary authority in a
developing country is not independent of government, so good monetary policies
takes a backseat to the political desires of the government or are used to pursue other
non-monetary goals. For this and other reasons, developing countries that want to
establish credible monetary policy may institute a currency board or adopt
dollarisation. Such forms of monetary institutions thus essentially tie the hands of the
government from interference and, it is hoped, that such policies will import the
monetary policy of the anchor nation.
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Part 02
Economic state of BD
1. Introduction of Monetary policy of Bangladesh
Monetary Policy the policy adopted by the central bank for control of the supply of
money as an instrument for achieving the objectives of general economic policy. As
stated in the Bangladesh Bank Order 1972, the principal objectives of the country's
monetary policy are to regulate currency and reserves; to manage the monetary and
credit system; to preserve the par value of domestic currency; to promote and
maintain a high level of production, employment and real income; and to foster
growth and development of the country's productive resources in the best national
interest. Although the long term focus of monetary policy in Bangladesh is on growth
with stability, the short-term objectives are determined after a careful and realistic
appraisal of the current economic situation of the country.
At 6% over the past 4 years, strong GDP growth has been underpinned by more
market-oriented economic policies, a dynamic garment sector, and substantial inflows
of overseas workers remittances. The lead-up to the parliamentary elections was
generally expected to be a rough patch given the countrys contentious political
environment; the constitutional mechanism of a neutral caretaker government was
expected to help smooth the way. Deepening political deadlock culminated with the
president in January declaring a state of emergency and calling o? the elections. But
the new caretaker Government has continued with established economic policies and
expedited structural and sector reforms. It has taken a broad agenda of activity,
including an extensive anticorruption drive that it sees necessary to establish better
foundations for holding the elections. GDP is forecast to maintain its recent
momentum over the medium term.
With the shifts of the policy stance of the government in various phases, necessary
adjustments were made in the country's monetary policy. In the first years after
liberation, the primary target of monetary policy was to regulate not the quantity of
money, but the direction of the flow of money and credit in support of the government
financial programme. In 1975, Bangladesh entered into a standby-arrangement with
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IMF and the country's monetary policy got a changed shape, which fixed an explicit
target of safe limit of monetary expansion on annual basis. With this change,
BANGLADESH
BANK
collaboration of the government and tried to achieve the target by using the direct
instrument of control. The principal target of monetary control was broad money (M2)
ie, the sum of the currency in circulation and total deposits of money in banks. The
targeted growth of M2 depended on a realistic forecast of the growth rate of real GDP,
an acceptable rate of inflation and an attainable level of international reserves.
Bangladesh Bank took measures to monitor credit and monetary expansion keeping in
view the price situation and international reserves position. Efforts were made to
achieve the targeted growth of domestic credit and thereby, the money supply, through
imposing ceilings on credit to the government, public, and private sectors. The major
policy instruments available to Bangladesh Bank were to set credit ceiling on the
banks and provide liberal refinance facility at concessional rate for priority lending.
According to the national economic policy, the banks were to provide the desired
volume of credit at an administered and low rate of interest. In that situation,
Bangladesh Bank practically did not have any effective instrument for making
adjustments in the growth of money supply or for transmitting market signals into
changes in money supply. The monetary policy therefore, could not function in its true
sense. As a result the BANKING SYSTEM could not play its role as an effective financial
intermediary.
In 1989, the government adopted a comprehensive Financial Sector Reform
Programme (FSRP), following which the country's monetary policy assumed a new
orientation towards promotion of market economy in a competitive environment.
Bangladesh Bank started moving away from direct quantitative monetary control to
indirect methods of monetary management since the beginning of 1990. Major
instruments of monetary control available with Bangladesh Bank are the bank rate,
open market operations, rediscount policy, and statutory reserve requirement.
Bank rate Until 1990, the use of this instrument as the lending rate of the central bank
for borrowings of the commercial banks to meet their temporary needs was virtually
non-existent in Bangladesh. The rate was changed in a few occasions only to align it
with the refixation of the rates of deposits and advances. Moreover, the existence of
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refinance facilities at rates lower than the bank rate substantially eroded its
significance. However, since 1990, the instrument has been put in use to change the
cost of borrowings for banks and thereby to affect the market rate of interest. Bank
rate was gradually lowered from 9.75% in January 1990 to 5% in March 1994. It was
raised to 5.75% from 10 September 1995 and further, to 7.5% and 8% from 19 May
1997 and 20 November 1997 respectively. The rate was lowered to 7% from 29
August 1999.
Open market operations (OMO) These involve the sale or purchase of securities by
the central bank to withdraw liquid funds from the banking system or inject the same
into that system. OMO allows flexibility in terms of both the amount and timing of
intervention, which did not exist in Bangladesh before 1990. Bangladesh Bank
introduced a 91-day Bangladesh Bank Bill, a market-based tool for monetary
intervention, in December 1990. The bank bill was subsequently withdrawn from the
market. At present, OMO operations are conducted through participation of banks in
monthly or fortnightly/weekly auctions of TREASURY BILLs.
Rediscount policy After the introduction of FSRP, the refinance facility was replaced
by rediscount facility at bank rate to eliminate discrimination in access to central bank
funds. Refinance facility is now available for agricultural credit provided by
BANGLADESH KRISHI BANK
financed by
SONALI BANK .
customer relationship.
Statutory reserve requirement Cash reserve requirement (CRR) of the deposit money
banks has a significant potential to regulate money supply through affecting money
multiplier, while statutory liquidity requirement (SLR) is generally used to affect the
lending capability of the bank. Bangladesh Bank used these two instruments very
infrequently before 1990 and very often after 1990. The CRR and SLR were 8% and
23% respectively on 25 April 1991 and were reduced to 7% and 22% respectively on
5 December 1991. Later, these rates were changed twice and set at 5% and 20%
respectively on 24 May 1992. The CRR was further lowered to 4% from 4 October
1999. The downward revision in CRR and SLR were made to enable the banks to
increase their lending capacity.
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Net exports of goods and services remained negative. Inflation moved up steadily to
average 7.2%. This exceeded the 7.0% limit set by Bangladesh Bank, the central
bank, in its first Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) issued in January 2006. Demand
pressures generated by excess money, a sharp depreciation in the taka (Tk) against the
US dollar (of 8.5% in FY2006), and a rise in global commodity prices (including oil),
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all heightened inflationary pressures. Rising exports of some consumer items, pulling
their domestic prices to higher global levels, also added to price pressures.
Despite attempts to tighten monetary policy, both money and credit aggregates
expanded rapidly in FY2006. Broad money grew by 19.5%, as against the MPS
program target of 14.3% and prior-year actual growth of 16.8%. Private sector credit
grew sharply because of rising credit demand in support of domestic economic
activity, while the public sector borrowed in excess of the credit target, mainly to
finance the high cost of imports by state-owned Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation
(BPC). To tighten credit, Bangladesh Bank raised key policy rates over the course of
the year: the 28-day treasury bill rate from 6.6% in the last quarter of FY2005 to 7.1%
in the last quarter of FY2006, and the reverse repo rate from 4.5% in June 2005 to
6.0% in June 2006. Yet because of excess liquidity in the system, these measures
failed to fully restrain credit growth. he second MPS, announced in mid-July 2006,
again aimed to tighten monetary policy, both to control inflation and to ease pressures
on the exchange rate, at the same time sustaining domestic output growth. The
introduction of the MPS is a welcome development as it seeks to bring greater
predictability to the policy regime and to avoid policy surprises, which should aid the
private sector in making its investment decisions. However, to derive greater benefit
from the MPS, the Government needs to allow Bangladesh Bank greater operational
autonomy and to establish greater coordination between monetary and fiscal policies.
At 3.3% of GDP, the central government deficit in FY2006 came in below the
budgeted 4.5%. this was because of lower than planned growth in both current and
development expenditures, and in spite of underperformance in revenue collection.
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Development spending was kept at a lower than projected level by large cost
reductions in non priority projects, fewer unproductive expenditures, and slow project
implementation. Revenues fell short of target because expected increases in collection
arising from reforms and administrative improvements failed to materialize. So while
tax-reform efforts yielded some gain in domestic value-added tax and income tax
collection, overall targets were missed in part because of lower customs receipts
stemming from tariff cuts. Domestic financing (borrowing from bank and non bank
sources) of the budget deficit amounted to 2.1% of GDP, while foreign assistance
(both loans and grants) financed the remaining 1.2%.he exchange rate came under
increasing pressure during much of FY2006, because of slowing financial account
inflows and higher import prices for oil and some other products. the currency
stabilized in the last quarter of the fiscal year, as the tighter monetary policy started to
have an effect, and the current account strengthened notably. the exchange rate stood
at Tk69.7/$1 in June 2006, representing an 8.5% depreciation against the US dollar in
FY2006. he marked depreciation in the nominal rate offset Bangladeshs higher
inflation relative to its trading partners, and the real effective exchange rate of the taka
depreciated by 5.3% in FY2006, boosting the countrys external competitiveness.
Import growth fell sharply to 12.1% in FY2006 from 20.6% in FY2005 as
administrative controls on letters of credit were imposed and unproductive imports
discouraged. In addition, lower imports of food grains and most other edible products
offset higher imports of oil, industrial raw materials, and capital machinery. Export
growth surged to 21.6% from 14.0%, reflecting robust performance of knitwear and
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woven garments. A decline in the trade deficit and a steep rise in remittances (24.8%)
turned the current account balance from a deficit of 0.9% of GDP to a surplus of
0.9%. Foreign exchange reserves rose to $3.5 billion at end-June 2006 from $2.9
billion a year earlier. In the FY2007 budget (announced in June 2006), the
Government shaved duties on intermediate goods from 13% to 12% and on raw
materials from 6% to 5%, as part of trade reforms agreed with the World Bank. It also
cut supplementary duties. these measures should improve profitability and
competitiveness of domestic industries, though they add to the effort needed to raise
the budgets low revenue ratio. Financial sector reforms to strengthen the regulatory
and supervisory framework for banks made headway in 2006, though at a slower than
expected pace. he health of the banking system has improved since
2002, as seen in the declines in gross nonperforming loans (NPLs) from 28% to 14%
and in net NPLs (i.e., less provisions) from 21% to 8%. This led to significant rises in
profitability ratios. Although the private commercial banks improved to record low
NPLs of 6%, the four nationalized commercial banks (NCBs) are still weak and show
very high NPLs of 25%. he NCBs have large capital shortfalls with a risk-weighted
capital asset ratio of just 0.5% in June 2006 (as against the required 9%), compared
with 10% for the private banks. the performance of the four NCBs is monitored under
memorandums of understanding signed by each of them and the central bank, in
relation
to tightened prudential norms and lending limits. It has been mixed, though, in part
because of government-directed extensions of credit, particularly to BPC to finance its
higher import costs. the divestment of Rupali Bank, an NCB, moved forward and the
sales and purchase agreements are expected to be signed. the Government has taken
steps to corporatize the remaining NCBs and make them more autonomous while
keeping them under the regulatory purview of the central bank, with an eye on their
eventual privatization. Other areas have shown progress. Bangladesh Bank has
completed a comprehensive plan to switch over to the new international standard
framework for assessing banks capital adequacy under Basel II, which the
Government intends to implement from early 2009. It established a settlement system
for secondary bond trading in May 2005 and introduced mark-to-market valuation
guidelines for treasury securities effective February 2006, which have improved
operations of the inter bank and treasury bill markets. It also introduced market-based
auctions of treasury bills in September 2006 to bring greater flexibility to liquidity
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management. Unlike many other bourses in Asia, the Dhaka Stock Exchange has not
recorded significant gains, though January 2007 saw a rise in response to prospects of
an improved political situation. Still, as indicated by the low 7.5% market
capitalization-to-GDP ratio, the equity market remains underdeveloped, largely
because of weak corporate governance, lack of high-quality share listings, and a
dearth of large institutional investors. While governance issues need to be tackled,
increasing the supply of listed shares by privatizing state enterprises through public
share offerings would help boost market capitalization and trading activity. Two major
power sector entitiesDhaka Electric Supply Company and the Power Grid
Company of Bangladeshhave already set an example by selling shares in the equity
market in 2006, under the Governments broader goal of privatizing state enterprises.
Modernization of the National Board of Revenue gathered pace. Large taxpayers
units for value-added tax and income tax have already been established in Dhaka, and
branches of these units are being set up in Chittagong (the second biggest city and
main port). he board is being reorganized along functional lines and an audit cell has
been set up. the central intelligence cell has detected several tax evasion cases and
secured unpaid taxes. these actions are expected to strengthen the tax machinery and
raise revenues over the medium term. In an attempt to curb corruption among tax
officials and redress taxpayers grievances, the countrys first tax ombudsperson was
appointed in July 2006.The Customs House in Chittagong is being split into two
entities to strengthen customs administration: one for imports and one for exports.
Computerization of customs administration has improved tax assessment and
appraisal functions.
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3. Development Challenges
Key development challenges facing Bangladesh include upgrading the physical
infrastructure, augmenting efficiency in the financial sector, stimulating greater
foreign direct investment (FDI), and strengthening governance. Deficiencies in key
infrastructure, such as power, ports, railways, and roads, seriously hamper export
growth, investment, and opportunities for transport integration with neighbors.
In the ports segment, Chittagong port, which handles nearly 85% of imports and 80%
of exports, suffers from low productivity, labor problems, and weak management,
exacerbated by the practice of stuffing and unstuffing containers in the port (because
of limited of-dock facilities and costly railway services to move containers).
Chittagong port
is below the UNCTAD productivity standard of 230 lits per berth a day. Bangladesh
Railway is unable to carry containers efficiently and on time because of limited
locomotive and freight-car availability, congested network on major corridors such as
DhakaChittagong and the corridor to India, lack of operational efficiency, and
infrastructure constraints. he main constraints facing the road sector are inadequate
maintenance funding and weak management.
As a result of weaknesses in transport operations, the country is tardy in exporting and
importing, requiring 35 and 57 days, respectively, measured from start to completion
of export/import procedures and shipment. his compares ill with neighboring
countries such as India (27/41 days export/import, respectively), Pakistan (24/19
days), and Sri Lanka (25/27 days). Similarly, costs are high. For example, the cost of
export for each container in Bangladesh is $902, compared with $864 in India, $797
in Sri Lanka, $481 in Malaysia, and $335 in the Peoples Republic of China.For
Chittagong port, the focus should remain on contracting out operations to the private
sector, on allowing private operators to invest iport infrastructure, and on restructuring
its management. The caretaker Government has, in fact, transferred the operations of
Chittagong container terminal to the private sector, and has also signaled its intention
to do the same for the new mooring container terminal. For Bangladesh Railway, the
emphasis should be on ensuring greater commercial orientation, outsourcing some
business to private companies and introducing modern management and financial
systems. In roads, the priority should be on approving an integrated multimodal
transport policy and creating a road maintenance fund. Despite some progress,
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Part 03
Bangladesh Bank
Monetary policy statement
1. Introduction:
Following a strong growth of 5.4 percent in 2006, global output growth is projected to
be 4.9 percent in 2007 (WEO, April '07, IMF); while developing world would grow
by 7.0 percent. Economic growth in Bangladesh has also got its momentum like its
neighboring countries. Bangladesh experienced a real GDP growth of 6.63 percent in
FY 06. The growth projection for current fiscal year is 6.5 percent. The policy
strategy recently initiated and the reform programs undertaken by the government
would not only help the economy to grow by 7.0 percent in FY08 but also pave the
way for Bangladesh to become a member of the middle income group country by
the end of the next decade.
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Growth in the industry sector continues to be robust in FY07 owing to steady growth
in export-oriented manufacturing and increased domestic demand. Looking at the
growth trend of quantum index of manufacturing industries, it is expected that the
growth in the industry sector would be within 10.0-10.5 percent. The buoyancy of
growth in industry is supporting corresponding growth in the service sector. The
accelerated pace of growth in the transport and communications sector would likely
offset the apparent slow down in the construction and real estate sector.
Overall GDP growth, according to forecast for FY08, is expected to regain its
momentum mainly representing the conducive economic and political environment
created by the present government. Growth in the agriculture sector in FY08 is thus
likely to be higher than that in FY07 aided by the projected higher disbursement of
agricultural loans and supportive measures cited above. The industry sector is
expected to continue to show robust performance in FY08 mainly due to steady
growth in export-oriented manufacturing and new capacity addition especially in the
telecommunications and the energy sectors. Increase in import of industrial raw
materials (12.2 percent) and capital machinery (16.6 percent) during July 06May '07
indicate that industry sector growth will sustain. The service sector is likewise
expected to experience buoyant growth in FY08. Overall, real GDP growth in FY08 is
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projected to be 7.0 percent in line with the projection in the Medium Term
Macroeconomic Framework (MTMF).
Inflation: FY07 commenced with an average inflation rate of 7.16 percent but eased
to 6.72 percent by the end of January, '07 reflecting both seasonality and restrictive
monetary policy that was pursued. Inflation projection for FY07 was lowered from
7.0 percent to a range of 6.85-6.95 percent in the Monetary Policy Statement
announced in January 2007. In the international front, prices of fuel, metals, food
grains and other essential commodities soared, while in the internal front, selective
depreciation in the exchange rate, revision of fuel prices, production shortfall of food
items and political unrest, some of which have already been subdued, put pressure on
the prices. Inflation rate, on an average basis, went up to 7.06 percent in May '07
(8.05 percent on point-to-point basis). Inflationary pressure was mainly felt on the
food component, which went up to 8.02 percent at the end of May '07 from 7.56
percent at the end of January '07 while non-food inflation rose slightly to 5.67 percent
at the end of May '07 from 5.53 percent at the end of January '07.
Apart from steps to monitor supply in domestic markets, the government has taken
price stabilization measures to ease the pressure which include withdrawal of duties,
importation of food grain by the government, strengthening of internal procurement,
provision for subsidy on fertilizers and diesel and widening of the Social Safety Net
Programme. Besides, banks are now providing credit facilities on softer terms to new
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importers, easing the LC margin for food items, extending time limit for customer
facility and arranging higher agricultural credit. Since global commodity prices are
not projected to fall in 2008 (WEO, IMF, April 2007) these measures may only
slightly lessen the pressure on consumer prices. Hence monetary stance of the
Bangladesh Bank over the coming quarters will continue to target the containment of
annual average inflation within a range of 6.57.0 percent for FY08.
External sector: Exports and imports grew by 18.50 percent and 17.83 percent
respectively, year on year basis in first ten months of FY07. Growth in workers
remittances was also steady at 24.52 percent up to June '07. Surplus in the current
account balance emanating mostly from robust growth in exports and workers
remittances inspite of higher growth in imports helped releasing pressure in foreign
exchange market that prevailed in the last part of H1 FY07.
With the marked increase in supply of foreign currency the foreign exchange reserves
continued to build up to reach an all time high of 5.1 billion US dollar. Mirroring
floating exchange rate management, the exchange rate of taka against US dollar,
amidst fluctuations, appreciated by 1.26 percent to Tk. 68.80 at the end June '07 from
Tk. 69.67 at the end June 06.
Some downside risks in the global perspective in FY08 remains the main concern
affecting external sector outlook. Besides, it has been apprehended that export sector
of Bangladesh may bear some pressure with the end of restrictions on Chinese
apparels by the end of 2007. However, increased flow of remittances, probable higher
FDI flow, reasonable export growth and normal import trend are expected to persist in
FY08. Bangladesh Bank will continue to use its monetary policy tools, if necessary, to
sterilize liquidity to emanate from expected higher foreign currency inflows.
Fiscal Sector: The overall deficit in the revised budget of the government for FY07
remained the same as in the original estimate and amounted to Tk. 173.64 billion or
3.7 percent of GDP, funded by Tk. 73.33 billion in foreign loans and grants and Tk.
100.31 in domestic borrowings including bank borrowing of Tk. 65.31 billion. Actual
outturn in bank borrowing is less at Tk. 59.8 billion as on 30 June '07. The budget for
FY08 projects an overall deficit of Tk. 223.13 billion or 4.2 percent of GDP, to be
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funded by Tk. 42.55 billion in foreign grants, Tk. 63.05 billion in foreign loans and
Tk.117.53 billion in domestic borrowing including bank borrowing of Tk. 72.53
billion. BPCs accumulated loss of Tk. 75.23 billion is included in the budget. As
indicated in the budget this will not create immediate additional fiscal liabilities as it
will be financed by a Non-Cash Bond issue.
From the beginning of FY07, a modified arrangement of Governments bank
borrowings was put in place under the supervision of a Cash and Debt Management
Committee (CDMC) chaired by Secretary, Finance Division. The new arrangement
included a widened Ways and Means Advance Limit (Tk. 10.00 billion instead of Tk.
0.65 billion) and auction of treasury bills and bonds according to volumes preannounced in the borrowing calendar. This new arrangement segregated BBs role in
government debt management from its monetary policy operations but there is no inbuilt mechanism to limit government bank borrowings within the ceiling of budgetary
provisions.
Until now, following the changed treasury rules BB holds treasury bills and bonds at
cut off rate if market supply of fund falls short of Governments demand set by
CDMC (which is known as devolvement). From the 4th quarter FY07, BB was
allowed to offload the devolved amount to the banks and financial institutions at the
cut off rate of last auction for the remaining period.
Recently the CDMC has agreed in principle that from the beginning of FY08 the
devolvement system will be replaced by a system where the extra amount will be
devolved on the primary dealers on the basis of underwriting. This new system will
enthuse the primary dealers to create a secondary market for government securities.
The new system will make it easier for BB to improve its monetary management.
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An upward bias in policy interest rates and reintroduction of BB bills in October 2006
helped in limiting inflation around the targeted seven percent despite international
price pressure. In spite of cautious monetary policy, M2 year-on-year growth (18.2
percent) at the end of May '07 exceeded the end-June target (14.7 percent), growth
rate of private sector credit that mirrors a part of the aggregate demand grew at 15.6
percent which was lower than previous years growth rate of 17.1 percent. Net foreign
assets of banking sector has been continuing to grow at a rate leading to the build up
of foreign exchange reserves that reached $ 5.1 billion by the end of June '07.
BB has been continuing to follow the cautious monetary stance with a view to
ensuring that the existing inflation is not further fuelled by increased aggregate
demand. However, BB is committed to ensuring flow of credit in the productive
sectors like agriculture, small scale industries, low cost housing etc., where market
has failed to deliver. BB has already taken a decision to introduce a refinancing
scheme for housing loans for lower and middle income groups. This step will provide
impetus to the housing sector which provides employment to a large number of
people. In order to boost credit in the agricultural sector, BB requested the
commercial banks (which hitherto did not provide much agricultural credit) to come
forward, and in response to that these banks have assured to provide more than Tk.
1,000 crore as agricultural credit during next 12 months.
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Bibliography:
1. www.google.com
2. www.bangladeshbank.org
3. www.banglapedia.com
4. www.thenewnation.com
5. www.financialexpress-bd .com
6. www.thedailystar.net
7. www.newagebd.com
8. www.bdnews24.com
9. www.weekipedia.org
10. www.tutor2u.net
11. www.yahoo.com
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