Professional Documents
Culture Documents
ii
iii
iv
vi
2011
Total
Total
II
III
IV
Total
II
III
IV
Total
II
III
6.5
6.7
6.4
6.7
6.4
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.3
6.2
5.6
6.1
6.0
6.1
6.0.
1 Pertanian
1.7
0.8
0.5
0.9
0.1
1.4
0.8
1.5
0.7
2.7
1.8
1.6
1.5
0.9
-1.2
1.5
8.6
-1.1
-1.1
-0.3
-0.4
-0.9
-0.4
-0.7
-1.0
-1.3
-0.8
-1.6
-1.6
-1.6
3 Industri Pengolahan
3.6
2.4
1.5
4.0
3.3
1.9
2.4
1.9
1.5
2.8
3.3
2.4
3.9
3.4
3.0
5.6
4.0
3.8
3.8
4.2
4.5
4.5
3.8
2.6
1.7
2.5
2.9
2.1
2.6
2.4
5 Konstruksi
7.1
7.9
6.2
6.2
6.6
7.8
6.9
6.5
6.3
5.7
6.1
5.7
5.8
5.7
5.1
7.3
7.4
7.0
7.2
6.7
7.6
7.2
7.2
7.2
6.6
4.8
6.4
5.6
5.8
5.5
14.8
13.9
13.8
12.5
10.8
10.6
11.8
11.4
11.4
10.9
9.8
10.8
10.6
11.5
11.4
4.2
5.0
5.1
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.7
5.4
5.0
4.6
5.2
4.6
4.6
5.2
9 Jasa-jasa
6.6
6.9
7.8
7.8
7.1
7.2
7.6
7.5
7.4
7.9
7.4
7.5
7.6
7.8
7.3
Indikator
2012
2013
2014
Berdasarkan Permintaan:
5.9
6.2
5.3
5.1
4.9
5.0
5.8
5.3
5.6
6.2
5.6
5.7
6.4
5.7
5.7
6.4
6.2
6.1
6.4
6.6
6.1
6.3
5.7
5.9
6.0
5.7
5.8
6.1
6.1
5.8
b. Konsumsi Pemerintah
0.7
3.7
5.1
7.1
-0.4
-4.8
1.1
0.4
2.8
9.5
5.2
4.7
10.7
1.0
3.9
3 PMTB
8.8
8.0
8.0
11.0
7.1
8.2
9.0
5.9
5.0
4.7
5.3
5.3
5.8
4.2
2.1
4 Ekspor
7.3
12.2
8.7
6.5
4.3
5.8
6.3
5.7
4.7
3.3
0.6
3.5
0.5
0.8
2.8
5 Impor
8.1
12.7
9.5
8.5
4.3
5.3
7.0
4.3
3.2
2.2
0.1
2.5
0.1
-1.1
-0.1
2,891
2,787
2,750
2,596
2,889
12,660
2,748
2,793
2,962
768
732
731
673
845
3,380
710
692
745,712
13,698
1 Konsumsi
Ekspor
- Nilai Ekspor Non Migas (USD Juta)
2,202
2,793
719
3,053
704
Impor
- Nilai Impor Non Migas (USD Juta)
44,527 57,460 15,425 17,315 15,347 15,790 63,877 14,463 16,461 14,930
14,601
70,197 13,548
15,155
7,199
38,043
7,958
6,353
144.27
144.27 111.51
112.07
114.12
7,879
7,213
7,313
122.92 127.80 128.86 129.68 131.95 133.58 133.58 136.20 137.03 143.00
6,759
6.21
3.97
4.13
4.12
3.97
4.52
4.52
5.70
5.67
8.38
8.00
8.00
7.53
7.09
4.84
1,198
1,417
1,411
1,478
1,511
1,630
1,630
1,636
1,708
1,780
1,856
1,856
1,820
1,913
2,000
1,201
1,243
1,311
1,305
1,336
1,426
1,553
1,622
1,622
1,623
1,706
1,759
- Modal Kerja
454
557
574
627
645
684
684
708
737
819
852
852
846
886
921
- Investasi
219
286
300
321
340
357
357
364
414
448
480
480
485
515
524
- Konsumsi
191
237
239
253
257
270
264
265
274
286
290
290
292
304
314
n.a.
82
81
88
83
93
93
90
102
98
99
99
100
113
112
72.15
76.23
78.95
81.13
82.26
80.42
80.42
81.68
84.36
87.25
86.47
86.47
89.20
89.18
87.94
2.94
2.07
2.14
1.96
1.74
1.55
1.55
1.56
1.41
1.36
1.36
1.36
1.56
1.68
1.91
78.5
87.2
64.4
90.3
89.9
95.6
85.0
82.0
101.5
91.0
91.1
91.4
65.3
75.3
42.6
22.5
23.3
19.8
23.3
23.6
25.9
23.2
23.9
25.2
24.5
24.3
24.5
17.0
17.7
11.3
Sistem Pembayaran
Transaksi RTGS
3.7
4.2
4.2
4.6
4.7
5.1
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.8
5.7
6.6
6.3
6.9
5.8
235.5
268.1
251.7
292.1
295.4
317.7
289.2
4.7
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.4
3.6
vii
viii
% yoy
Indeks
60
140
40
120
20
Optimis
100
Pesimis
-20
80
-40
60
-60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2013
2014
gKredit Konsumsi
40
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
350,000
Rp Miliar
300,000
250,000
40
9000
35
8000
30
7000
25
200,000
20
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2011
Kredit Investasi
2012
2013
2014
100
6000
50
5000
4000
15
3000
10
2000
1000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
% yoy CMA
150
0
(50)
(100)
I
II
III
2010
IV
II
III
IV
2011
II
III
2012
IV
II
III
IV
2013
II
III
2014
80
%, yoy
100
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
-20
-40
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
-20
2011
2012
g.Nilai Ekspor
-40
2013
g.Volume Ekspor
2014
-60
Bahan Kimia
2012
Barang Manufaktur
2013
2014
140 %, yoy
100
120
80
100
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
(20)
-20
-40
2011
2012
2013
2014
(40)
(60)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
-60
-80
2011
g.Nilai Impor
g.Volume Impor
2012
2013
2014
700
Ribu Ton
%, yoy
100
% yoy
25
600
80
500
60
400
40
15
300
20
10
200
100
-20
20
5
0
-40
2013
2014
g.Konsumsi Semen (skala kanan)
2012
Tipe Kecil
2013
2014
Tipe Menengah
Tipe Besar
Unit
Indeks
140,000
130
120,000
125
20.00
120
100,000
115
80,000
110
60,000
15.00
10.00
105
40,000
100
20,000
95
5.00
0.00
I
90
2012
50
25.00
2013
II
-5.00
2014
III
2012
IV
II
III
2013
IV
II
III
2014
-10.00
Unit
%,yoy (CMA)
80.0
40
30
60.0
20
40.0
10
20.0
0
(10)
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
(20)
(30)
-20.0
gBongkar
2012
2013
2014
gMuat
(40)
-40.0
2012
2013
2014
-60.0
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
%, yoy
62
%, yoy
80
60
58
56
60
40
54
52
50
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
48
46
(20)
2011
2012
2013
2012
2013
2014
(40)
gKWH Rumah Tangga
gKWH Bisnis
gKWH Industri
2014
30000
Rupiah/bulan
29000
20
28000
15
27000
10
5
26000
25000
28,523
29,380
27,853
-5
24000
25,118
-10
23000
-15
22000
2011
2012
2013
2007
2014f
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 *
IUBTT
Triliun Rp
1,400
2013
2015
(prognosa) (proyeksi)
IET
%, yoy
% yoy
35
60
Indeks
6000
1,200
30
50
5000
1,000
25
40
800
20
30
600
15
400
10
200
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2011
2012
Kredit
2013
g.Kredit
2014
4000
3000
20
2000
10
1000
-10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2011
IHSG (skala kanan)
2012
2013
gKredit
gIHSG
2014
gKapitalisasi
Indeks
2500
90
%, yoy
80
2000
70
60
1500
50
40
1000
30
500
20
10
2012
gEmiten Keuangan
gEmiten Perdagangan
10
2013
2014
gEmiten Properti
gEmiten Barang Konsumsi
0
-10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2011
gTotal Pembiayaan
2012
2013
gLeasing
2014
gPembiayaan Konsumen
Kota
Peringkat
2014
Jakarta
Manila
Addis Ababa
Sao Paulo
New Delhi
Rio de Janeiro
Bogota
Mumbai
Nairobi
Kuala Lumpur
10
11
Memulai Usaha
Penyelasaian credit
bermasalah
Izin Konstruksi
69
59
46
Kepatuhan Kontrak
Perdagangan lintas
batas
77
76
38
50
54
61
Pendaftaran
Properti
61
Pembayaran Pajak
Perolehan Kredit
Perlindungan
Investor minoritas
12
Instalasi Listrik
18
13
8
3
-2
-7
-12
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
2004
2005
gPDRB
2006
2007
gPDRB_riil
2008
2009
gInflasi
2010
2011
gKonsumsi
2012
2013
2014
gInvestasi
13
12
45
40
10
35
8
30
25
6
20
4
15
10
2
5
0
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
14
2010
NPL
2011
2012
2013
2014
15
16
17
18
19
Komoditas
Rokok Kretek
Bahan Bakar Rumah Tangga
Komoditas
Rekreasi
Sandang Anak-Anak
Minuman Tidak Beralkohol
20
Juli 2014
0.0655
0.2176
Kontribusi (%,mtm)
Agustus 2014
September 2014
0.0310
0.0110
0.1161
0.0449
Juli 2014
0.0129
0.0219
0.0510
Kontribusi (%,mtm)
Agustus 2014 September 2014
0.0664
0.0249
0.0110
0.0041
0.0266
0.0101
Komoditas
Daging Ayam Ras
Bahan Makanan Lainnya
Juli 2014
0.0211
0.0024
Kontribusi (%,mtm)
Agustus 2014
September 2014
0.0119
0.0048
0.0011
0.0004
21
Tarif Transportasi
Harga
Bensin dan Solar
Angkutan Orang
Angkutan Barang
Ekspektasi Inflasi
22
Inflasi
Administered Prices
Inflasi Komoditas Lain
Jalur
cost-push (Volatile Food dan Inti)
Jalur ekspektasi
Inflasi
IHK
Simulasi
Kenaikan BBM (Premium dan Solar) masing-masing Rp 2.000,-/L
Bobot SBH Kenaika Sumbanga
Dampak Kenaikan Harga BBM Bersubsidi
2012 (%)
n (%)
n (%)
Dampak langsung
1.14
- Bensin
3.66
30.77
1.13
- Solar
0.04
36.36
0.01
Dampak tidak langsung ke tarif angkutan *)
- Angkutan ASDP
- Angkutan Antar Kota
- Angkutan Dalam Kota
- Angkutan Laut
- Tarif KA
- Tarif Taksi
Dampak tidak langsung ke komoditas lainnya **)
- Core
- Volatile Food
Total dampak ke Inflasi IHK
Komponen IHK
Administered Prices
Core
Volatile Food
IHK
Tw IV-2014
Nov
Des
1.89
0.04
0.26
0.07
0.11
0.03
2.26
0.14
0.00
0.97
3.66
0.01
0.17
0.11
0.00
10.00
18.50
0.00
6.19
2.06
65.62
12.55
0.57
1.21
Tw-I 2015
Jan
0.00
0.04
0.02
0.05
0.79
0.00
0.10
0.68
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.53
0.37
0.15
2.45
Total
1.93
0.37
0.15
2.45
23
Koefisien
Upah Minimum
t-stat
0.64
12.18***
Produktivitas
-0.17
-5.35***
Belanja APBD
-0.11
-4.92***
Trade Openess
-0.05
-3.95***
0.18
6.80***
Populasi
Dependent Variabel : IHK
JAWA
Faktor Inflasi
24
Koefisien
t-stat
Upah Minimum
0.51
10.88***
Produktivitas
0.24
3.70***
Belanja APBD
0.08
3.12***
Trade Openess
0.01
1.21
Populasi
0.50
2.79***
Ribu Rupiah
18,000
120
16,000
100
14,000
12,000
80
10,000
60
8,000
6,000
40
4,000
20
2,000
-
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
UMP
25
26
Triliun Rp
1,400
% yoy
35
50
% yoy
40
1,200
30
1,000
25
800
20
600
15
400
10
(10)
200
(20)
30
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2011
2012
Kredit
2013
2014
20
10
(30)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2011
2012
gKredit Investasi
2013
2014
gKredit Konsumsi
27
2,200
95
2,000
90
1,800
85
85
1,600
80
80
1,400
75
1,200
70
1,000
65
800
60
95
% yoy
DPK
g.DPK
Triliun Rp
90
75
70
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2012
28
2013
2014
II
III
2011
IV
II
III
2012
IV
II
2013
IV
II
2014
III
29
30
31
32
33
160
Indeks
160
140
INDEKS
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4
2010
2011
34
2012
2013
2014
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
35
Realisasi
2013^
WEO (IMF)
Jul-14*
RDG
Consensus Forecast
Sep-14
Oct-14**
Oct-14^
Oct-14*
Nov-14^
2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016
World output2
3.3
3.4
3.7 3.3
3.8
Advanced economies
United States
Euro area
Japan
1.4
2.2
-0.4
1.5
1.8
1.7
1.1
1.6
2.4
3.0
1.5
1.1
1.8
2.2
0.8
0.9
2.3
3.1
1.3
0.8
2.4
3.0
1.7
0.8
1.9
2.1
0.9
1.2
2.4
3.1
1.4
1.3
1.8
2.2
0.8
1.1
2.3
3.1
1.2
1.2
2.4
3.0
1.5
1.0
4.7
6.6
7.7
4.6
3.1
4.6
6.4
7.4
5.4
3.12
5.2
6.7
7.1
6.4
3.98
4.4
6.5
7.4
5.6
2.74
5.0
6.6
7.1
6.4
3.58
5.2
6.5
6.8
6.5
4.07
4.8
6.55
7.4
5.5
5.2
6.64
7.1
6.2
4.8
6.43
7.3
5.6
5.2
6.61
7.1
6.3
7.0
6.7
2.7
4.0
5.3
3.8
5.0
104.1
104.1
99.6
102.8
-1.2
-1.7
-3.6
-3.0
2.4
3.0
1.5
1.1
1.8
2.2
0.8
0.9
2.3
3.0
1.3
0.8
2.4
3.0
1.7
0.8
4.4
5.0
4.4
5.0
5.2
7.4
5.5
2.7
7.1
6.4
3.6
7.4
5.6
2.7
7.1
6.4
3.60
7.0
6.5
4.07
5.5
3.16
5.00
3.0
5.0
5.2
99.4
97.3
104
95
102
95
93
-4.1
-0.8
-0.2
2.9
PDB dunia World Bank dan Consensus Forecast adalah hasil perhitungan DKEM dg menggunakan PPP WEO terbaru yang ada saat itu. Khusus
untuk PDB India menggunakan basis tahun fiskal dan berdasar harga pasar (market price)
2
Angka realisasi dan asumsi RDG menggunakan harga minyak jenis Minas, sementara asumsi WEO (IMF) dan WB menggunakan rata-rata harga
minyak jenis Brent, Dubai, dan West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dimana spread antara Brent dan Minas sebesar USD3/barrel
* Menggunakan bobot WEO yang terbaru saat itu (WEO Juli 2014, adjusted)
**CF Oktober 2014 dgn asumsi pertumbuhan ekonomi negara latin amerika sama dgn bln sebelumnya, tahun 2016 belum lengkap
^ Menggunakan bobot WEO Oktober 2014
36
-3.0
0.2
-2.9
37
2013
2012
2014
2015
II
III
IVp
Totalp
Ip
6.1
I
6.0
6.1
6.0
6.1
6.1
5.8 - 6.2
II
III
IV
Total
6.5
6.5
6.3
6.2
5.6
Sisi Permintaan
5.8
5.3
5.6
6.2
5.6
5.7
6.4
5.7
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.0 - 5.4
Konsumsi swasta
6.3
5.7
5.9
6.0
5.7
5.8
6.1
6.1
5.8
6.0
6.0
5.6 - 6.0
Konsumsi Pemerintah
1.1
0.4
2.8
9.5
5.2
4.7
10.7
1.0
3.9
4.4
5.7
2.2 - 2.6
9.0
5.9
5.0
4.7
5.3
5.3
5.8
4.2
2.1
2.5
3.9
2.8 - 3.2
Ekspor
6.3
5.7
4.7
3.3
0.6
3.5
0.5
0.8
2.8
3.5
2.5
3.4 - 3.8
Impor
7.0
4.3
3.2
2.2
0.1
2.5
0.1
-1.1
-0.1
0.9
0.7
1.1 - 1.5
II
III
IV
Total
6.5
6.3
6.2
5.6
6.1
I
6.0
Konsumsi
2012
6.5
2013
2014
2015
II
III
IVp
Totalp
Ip
6.1
6.0
6.1
6.1
5.8 - 6.2
0.7 - 1.1
Sisi Produksi
Sektor pertanian
0.8
1.5
0.7
2.7
1.8
1.6
1.5
0.9
(1.2)
0.7
0.9
(0.9)
(0.4)
(0.7)
(1.0)
(1.3)
(0.8)
(1.6)
(1.6)
(1.6)
(0.8)
Industri pengolahan
2.4
1.9
1.5
2.8
3.3
2.4
3.9
3.4
3.0
3.4
3.5
3.2 - 3.6
4.5
3.8
2.6
1.7
2.5
2.9
2.1
2.6
2.4
3.1
2.8
1.9 - 2.3
Bangunan
6.9
6.5
6.3
5.7
6.1
5.7
5.8
5.7
5.1
4.9
5.5
4.6 - 5.0
7.2
7.2
7.2
6.6
4.8
6.4
5.6
5.8
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.2 - 5.6
11.8
11.4
11.4
10.9
9.8
10.8
10.6
11.5
11.4
11.5
5.4
5.7
5.4
5.0
4.6
5.2
4.6
4.6
5.2
5.1
4.6
4.8 - 5.2
Jasa-jasa
7.6
7.5
7.4
7.9
7.4
7.5
7.6
7.8
7.3
7.3
7.5
6.9 - 7.3
38
39
40
41
220
Indeks
200
180
160
140
120
100
2011
42
2012
2013
2014
43