As reflected in the amount of controversy, few areas in psychology have undergone

such dramatic conceptual changes in the past decade as the emerging science of
heuristics. Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes, conscious or unconscious,
that ignore part of the information. Because using heuristics saves effort, the
classical view has been that heuristic decisions imply greater errors than do
"rational" decisions as defined by logic or statistical models. However, for many
decisions, the assumptions of rational models are not met, and it is an empirical
rather than an a priori issue how well cognitive heuristics function in an uncertain
world. To answer both the descriptive question ("Which heuristics do people use in
which situations?") and the prescriptive question ("When should people rely on a
given heuristic rather than a complex strategy to make better judgments?"), formal
models are indispensable. We review research that tests formal models of heuristic
inference, including in business organizations, health care, and legal institutions.
This research indicates that (a) individuals and organizations often rely on simple
heuristics in an adaptive way, and (b) ignoring part of the information can lead to
more accurate judgments than weighting and adding all information, for instance for
low predictability and small samples. The big future challenge is to develop a
systematic theory of the building blocks of heuristics as well as the core capacities
and environmental structures these exploit.

Major Functions of the MBMS

Create models easily and quickly, either from scratch or
from existing model or from the building blocks
Allows users to manipulate the models so they can
conduct experiments and sensitivity analysis ranging
from what-if to goal seeking
Stores, retrieves, and manages a wide variety of
different types of models in a logical and integrated
manner

 Accesses and integrates the model building blocks

Catalogues and displays the directory of models for use
by several individuals in the organisation
Track model data and application use
Interrelates models with appropriate linkages with the
database and integrates them within the DSS
Manages and maintains the model base with
management functions, analogues to database
management: store, access, run, update, link, catalogue,
and query
Uses multiple models o support problem solving