summary

COMMERCIAL FLEET FORECAST

GLOBAL: 2012-2031

Research and analysis from Flightglobal Insight and Achieving the Difference

CoMMERCIAL FLEET FORECAST 2012-H1

background
In the first half of 2011, Flightglobal published
its first forecast report. Flightglobal continues to
expand its growing store of information and is
now arguably among the worlds most complete
set of aviation statistics anywhere.
In partnership with Clive Lewis of the Achieving
the Difference marketing practive, further
refinements have been made to the forecasting
model and the latest installment (2012-H1) now
includes an improved freighter forecast.
Clive brings with him decades of forecasting
experience within the commercial aerospace
sector. Working together with the Flightglobal
Insight research team, he has painstakingly
combined Flightglobals data resource with
his expertise in developing computer-based
forecasting tools.
The resulting forecasting model spent a year in
the making. Much time was invested in ensuring
that the methodology was robust, including
some sterling work by the UKs Bristol Business
School in proving the model against decades
worth of data.
At the heart of the forecast lies the Pachinko
Probability Tree. Like the ball-bearings of the
Japanese arcade game after which it is named,
individual aircraft drop through this tree-like
predictive model based on over 800,000 historic
observations, assigning probabilities to which
way they will fall in terms of service, storage or
migration between world regions.
Total fleet size is predicted by demand-side
analysis based on the relationship between fleet
capacity and economic growth, the latter based
on predictions from the International Monetary
Fund (IMF).

The Pachinko Probability Tree has been

developed to perform long-term predictions

in this report
lPassenger and freighter demand
including:
Fleet

size
Deliveries

Order

backlog
Retirements

lAnalysis divided in six world regions
plus a separate section on China
lCovers all modern commercial
airliners over 20-seats
lDetailed forecasts for aircraft
categories down to model series

Updated twice a year, the report is a set of 20year predictions which are robustly tested and
truly independent.

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Headlines
Active fleet development
active fleet regional split in 2031
7%

7%

Africa
Asia-Pacific (ex China)
22%

24%

China
Europe
Middle East

6%

North America

15%

South America

19%

Total fleet: 39,155

37%

of the worlds commercial fleet (all

uses) will be based in Asia-Pacific by
2031. China alone will be operating
more than 5,900 aircraft.
Growth demand is coming from Asia-Pacific,
China, the Middle East and Africa.The new
territories of growth demand appear to be
growing-up differently to the way the mature
markets did, skipping the high levels of growth
in the smaller turboprop and regional jet fleets.
This is not good news for manufacturers in these
segments without a growth region to deliver to.
Signs of change in these areas will be carefully
observed.

Deliveries
narrowbody deliveries by manufacturer

Number of deliveries

1,000

Comac C919

of global narrowbody deliveries in 2030 will

CSeries
beBombardier
manufactured
by companies competing
with
the737Airbus and Boeing duopoly.
Boeing

600
400

Airbus A320 Family

The narrowbody market group forms the

backbone of capacity supply across the world
and acts as a barometer of the industry. Fleet
growth is expected to be strongest in AsiaPacific and China. Although small, the fleets
of Africa and the Middle East are expected to
show a high growth rate.

200
0
2012

15%
Irkut MS-21

800

2017

2022

2027

Year ending
Irkut MS-21

Boeing 737

Comac C919

Airbus A320 Family

Bombardier CSeries

SUMMARY | Achieving the Difference | Flightglobal Insight | 3

CoMMERCIAL FLEET FORECAST 2012-H1

Retirements

58%

retirements by market group

400
Number of aircraft

Widebody Jet

Narrowbody Jet

of the worlds commercial fleet

Regional Jet
retirements to 2031 will be narrowbody
Turboprop
aircraft.

300

200

100

0
2012

2017

2022

2027

Year ending
Widebody Jet

Regional Jet

Narrowbody Jet

Turboprop

It is no surprise that almost half of the retirements

predicted in the 121-200 seats category are of
the prolific 737. Of these, the 737 Classic is
expected to see the most retirements. It is also
not surprising that almost half of all retirements
are expected to be from the mature market of
North America.

Survivors

75%

Survivors by market group

Total number of aircraft

15,000
12,000

of commercial aircraft operating in 2012

will still be in service in 2031.

9,000
6,000
3,000
0
2012

2017

2022

2027

Year ending
Widebody Jet

Regional Jet

Turboprop

Narrowbody Jet

A survivor is an aircraft that was in active service

Widebody Jet
in 2012,
remaining in active service later in the
Turboprop
forecast
period. It is possible for an aircraft that
Regional
Jet
has been
parked
or used for some other purpose
Narrowbody
to re-enter
theJet
active fleet at a later point.
A high percentage of the original regional jet and
turboprop fleet is expected to survive to the end
of the forecast period while many narrowbody
jets are expected to re-enter service.

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Focus on China
7,000

45,000

6,000

40,000

5,000

missing

4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000

35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000

0
1992

GDP on PPP basis (current intl $)

Number of aircraft

china: active passenger fleet

0
2002

2012

2022

Year ending
451+ seats

121-200 seats

351-450 seats

91-120 seats

251-350 seats

51-90 seats

201-250 seats

20-50 seats

GDP

61%

of the commercial
aircraft in China will be
451+ seats
351-450seat
seats category by the end
in the 121-200
251-350 seats
of the forecast
period.
201-250 seats
121-200 seats
91-120 seats

51-90of
seats the fleet in the 121-200 seat
The growth
20-50 seats
category has
been the strongest of any in the
region, and is closely correlated with the growth
of Chinas GDP. This relationship is reduced
slightly going forward, because the order book
does not support the continuation of such
correlated growth. There has been some slow
growth in the average seats per aircraft. This is
a global trend and is predicted to continue over
the forecast period.

freighter market

65%

World freighter capacity

Capacity (tonnes)

300,000

Large Widebody 72.5-150 tons

250,000

Mediumcapacity
Widebody 40-72.5
of freighter
bytons
2031 is
Medium
Body 33-60
tons
projected
toStandard
be large
widebodies.

200,000

Small Standard Body 12.5-33 tons

150,000

tons
Since Utility
the0-12.5
mid-1990s,
an increasing proportion
of capacity has been delivered by large aircraft.
In 1980, the Large Widebody share of capacity
was 30%. This had increased to 36% by 1990,
50% in 2000 and 60% in 2010, and is predicted
to increase further, to 65%, by 2031.

100,000
50,000
0
1992

2002

2012

2022

Year ending
Large Widebody 72.5-150 tonnes

Small Standard Body 12.5-33 tonnes

Medium Widebody 40-72.5 tonnes

Utility 0-12.5 tonnes

Medium Standard Body 33-60 tonnes

More than half of the aircraft in this Large

Widebody freighter fleet are Boeing 747s. By
2031, this figure is expected to fall to less than
40%.

SUMMARY | Achieving the Difference | Flightglobal Insight | 5

CoMMERCIAL FLEET FORECAST 2012-H1

what do you get?

The Commercial Fleet Forecast report
can be purchased as an annual package
which includes two full printed reports,
each with 350+ pages.
It features written analysis with detailed
infographics. Each report is supplied with
a comprehensive, updated set of data
used in the analysis in Excel format.

Contents
global Summary
regional analysis
Africa | Asia-Pacific | China | Europe | Middle East |
North America | South America
market group analysis
Turboprops | Regional jets | Narrowbody jets |
Widebody jets
manufacturers and programmes
Airbus | ATR | Boeing | Bombardier | Comac |
Embraer | Mitsubishi | United Aircraft Corporation
Retirement forecast
Retirements | Conversions | Survivors

Independent analysis...
lfrom trusted brands
lbased on world leading data
lwith a robust methodology
...informing your business
lthrough detailed analysis
lwith expert commentary
lplus full data tables in Excel

methodology
ASSUMPTIONS
GLOSSARY
Appendices

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about the author

Clive Lewis of Achieving the Difference has more
than a quarter of a century of aerospace industry
experience. While a market forecaster at Smiths
Industries (now GE Aviation), he studied for a
Masters degree in Marketing at the University of the
West of England. His dissertation on an econometric
model for forecasting airliner retirements earned
him a distinction. Clive went on to lead the market
and business forecasting team at Lucas Varity
which became TRW Aeronautical Systems and later
Goodrich Aerospace.
As an industry supporter, Clive is a member of the ADS
Market Development Board. For the last few years,
Achieving the Difference has delivered the market
forecast used by ADS and UK Trade & Investment to
determine their international support strategy for the
sector.

For further details, contact Daniel Sedman (Sales Manager Europe) at:
Tel: +44 208 652 3914
Email: daniel.sedman@flightglobal.com
SUMMARY | Achieving the Difference | Flightglobal Insight | 7

Find out more about this report on

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