Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Property Out Look 2014
Property Out Look 2014
Table of Contents
Table of Contents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 2
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 3
Glossary of Terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 4
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... 0 5
About Us ................ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 8
Disclaimer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . 6 9
Credits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . .. . . . . . . . .. . 7 0
Preface
Greetings ,
And a warm welcome to property enthusiasts everywhere!
We are very pleased to announce the launch of The PropertyGuru Market Outlook 2014 eBook.
A Singapore first, this book is the culmination of our unique leadership position in property listings, an expansive agent
network, developer partnerships as well as rich consumer and investor relationships.
Leveraging high quality government data and its own unique information, PropertyGuru established a Data Analytics Division
with a simple objective: to make new property analysis and insights available for property buyers, sellers, investors and for
those simply wishing to understand the value of their own homes, or where the market is heading in 2014.
This document analyses and reflects on the property market in 2013 and uses this information to project likely pricing, supply
and property demand and value trends in 2014. It also includes industry expert opinions to provide a comprehensive and
rounded view.
You may also be interested to learn about the changing property sentiment, recommendations for the top property picks in
2014, or the outlook for mortgage rates. While 2013 proved to be a pivotal year for the Singapore market, it set property value
trends in place that are vital to understand in 2014.
Cooling measures, the effect of transaction volumes on the market, access to competitive mortgage finance what all these
will mean for property choices and the prices that people can expect are part of the complete market picture that this eBook
represents.
Our hope is that youll find the information useful, interesting and informative in 2014 - whichever part of the property cycle
you move into. Naturally, we always welcome and encourage your feedback. And remember to visit PropertyGuru.com.sg to
learn more about specific properties, markets and breaking news.
Thank you - and we wish you thoughtful and informative reading!
Steve Melhuish
Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
PropertyGuru Group
Glossary of Terms
ABSD
BTO Build-to-order
CCR
COV
MAS
MOP
MSR
OCR
RCR
Executive Summary
2013 was a pivotal year for the Singaporean property market, displaying
softening prices.
2013
Each of these developments impacted the market in turn, and will continue
have laid the groundwork for the market we can expect to see during 2014.
to affect the market well into 2014. This report looks at these factors
separately, and what they mean for the market. It also considers the likely
consequences and offers the Guru View on the market and what can be
expected for the remainder of 2014.
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cooling
measures
and the
reduction in
property
demand
2013
REVIEW
2013
upgraders/local investor
Shorter time period means prospective first-time home buyers need to meet higher
Reduction of the Mortgage Servicing Ratio (MSR) to 30 percent for HDB loans
Restricting the maximum amount of mortgage debt reduces demand in the market and
creates a safety margin for the borrower should mortgage rates increase.
z
n
This measure discourages a large portion of PRs from participating in the market for resale HDBs,
thereby reducing demand and upward pressure on prices for that segment.
n Rise in Additional Buyers Stamp Duty (ABSD) for PRs by 5-7 percent for
purchase of first or subsequent properties
Another measure to reduce demand and the pressure on prices by making purchases more
expensive for PRs, who make up about 10 percent of the total population in Singapore.
PRs who own a flat are disallowed from subletting the whole flat
This measure removes incentive for PRs to buy-for-rent, thereby reducing overall demand and
upward pressure on prices.
PRs must sell their HDB flats within six months of purchasing a private
property
This puts more resale HDBs on the market for sale, thereby increasing their supply, providing more
choice for Singaporeans, and placing downward pressure on prices.
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2013
REVIEW
TRANSACTION
VOLUMES
take a dip
2013
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WATCH VIDEO: Industry analysts share their inisghts into how the CCR,
RCR and OCR regions fared in 2013
(Alice Tan, Associate Director & Head of Consultancy and Research, Knight
Frank; Alan Cheong, Senior Director, Savills; Christine Li, Head, Research &
Consultancy, OrangeTee)
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2013
REVIEW
The
FLUCTUATING
nature of
prices
2013
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Significantly, the CCR registered a price fall across the last three
quarters of 2013. This fall also coincided with the introduction of
the ABSD in Q1, which saw higher taxes on second and subsequent
properties imposed on a majority of potential buyers, including highnet worth individuals and foreigners.
The downward trend of luxury properties appeared to be further
exacerbated with the TDSR changes introduced in late June. These
resulted in a price fall of 2.2 percent by Q4 2013, a rate of decline that
was seven times larger than the 0.3 percent decline in the previous
quarter.
The RCR region also witnessed price declines for the first time since
Q1 2012. This was after the TDSR came into effect. However unlike the
CCR, the RCR maintained positive market activity throughout 2013. This
was spurred by the launch of units that were competitively priced at
the level of affordability that buyers were comfortable with.
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why
executive
condos
were highly
sought after
2013
REVIEW
2013
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the vITAL
ROLE
that interest
rates played
2013
REVIEW
2013
The interest rate and the outlook for interest rates represents the
effective and expected cost of servicing the mortgage debt. In 2013,
the cost of servicing a mortgage remained at near record lows.
Though ultra-low rates were a primary driver in the 2013 market, they
cannot necessarily be assumed to remain as positive for the market
during 2014.
The chart below looks in more detail at the most recent rate influences
on the market in 2013.
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The three-month SIBOR rate has fallen from approximately 1.8 percent
in Q3/Q4 2008, to the historically low values at present. This most
recent behaviour is uncharacteristically stable, given that SIBOR rates
have displayed much volatility over the past 25 years.
The ultra benign interest rate environment over the last five years
has increased the capacity of consumers and investors to borrow
large sums cheaply. This has allowed Singapores property markets to
flourish after the global market correction in 2009 and for the very
strong market to continue into 2013.
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In 2013, the access to finance, or the amount that people could borrow,
was curtailed by cooling measures. This was a simple and efficient
effort by the government to reduce effective property demand.
The sector that was especially susceptible to the cooling measures, and
showed the biggest correction, was the HDB resale market. a
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hOUSING
SUPPLY
set to
increase
2013
REVIEW
2013
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This has fuelled increased demand for property in 2013, which was not
curtailed until the second half of the year when cooling measures fully
impacted the market.
Based on the assumption that all population sub-groups continue to
follow their growth trajectories closely, we can well expect more than
129,000 more non-residents and PRs to enter the market by 2015.
On a side note, what also needs to be stressed is that, although
Singapore Citizens will exhibit slower growth when compared to the
other two groups, there will still be sufficient demand in absolute terms
for places to stay in 2015, especially for HDB Built-to-order units (BTOs).
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this new supply will come over the next three years. New supply in
2013 alleviated some upward pricing pressures in the private condo
market a sector which saw supply increase from 9,000 units to more
than 15,000 units over the course of the year. This was a 75 percent
increase in supply over the previous year, and so contributed to the
decline in prices in the latter half of 2013.
While the absolute number of all property types will continue to rise,
they are going to increase at different rates with the biggest supply
effects felt in the HDB and EC markets. a
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property
seekers
weigh in
2013
REVIEW
2013
price perceptions and intention to purchase property, as well as perceived government effort.
We can see that public opinion deteriorated sharply at the height of the
property cycle from Q2 2012 to Q1 2013 with the index dipping from
112 to 80.
A reading below 100, the baseline index, indicates a less affordable
outlook for property.
Government intervention was thus inevitable with successive rounds
of cooling measures being implemented in an attempt to mitigate the
sustained increase in transaction numbers. Singaporeans were, and
still are, generally supportive of the governments actions in influencing
real estate demand and supply.
This is indicated by the upswing in the index for the first time in nine
months, from mid-2013 onwards. By the end of Q4 2013, property
seekers were becoming more optimistic about affordability in the
property market, with the index hitting a record high of 120 - a stark
contrast to a year ago, when sentiments were at their lowest ebb.
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On the one hand, it can be said that TDSR has limited the purchasing
power of upgraders to finance further investment in private property,
thereby curtailing their demand temporarily.
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2014...
With so much uncertainty in the Singapore property market, many people are asking:
u Whether now is the right time to buy, or the right time to sell?
u Where is the market heading and what kind of price correction, if any, can be expected?
u Are HDB resales a good option or should I be considering ECs?
u Overseas property looks very tempting but where should I be looking?
PropertyGuru will answer these and other questions, and also reveal places both local and
overseas that you might want to consider for your next property purchase.
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And now to
More HDB
BTOs:
Too much of a
good thing?
e
2014
FORECAST
At a glance:
v
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Should we be worried?
The government will pay close attention to both the demand and
supply of public housing, implementing strategies to tackle the delicate
act of balancing the two. By virtue of their commitment towards
building more BTOs, we have seen that the government has begun
taking steps to address the short-term deficit of residential units over
the course of the next few years.
In the same vein, should these additional units prove to be more than
the market needs, the government can always recalculate the total
supply to provide, or tweak a variety of HDB measures to stabilise
the market. This is already evident from Minister Khaw Boon Wans
recent mention of cutting back on the construction of larger, three- or
more bedroom HDB units by about 18 percent in response to fewer
applicants.
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HDB Resale
Market:
What goes up
must come
down
e
2014
FORECAST
At a glance:
v
Although overall the resale price index dipped by 0.4 percent, the
large dip in prices in Q4 sets the stage for prices in this segment to
drop by between 5 to 8 percent in 2014, said Mohamed Ismail, Chief
Executive Officer of Singapore real estate agency PropNex Realty.
Transaction volume figures will follow a similar trend to 2013, which
saw one of the lowest in years at around 17,200 to 18,500 resale
transactions compared to more than 24,000 to 37,000 over the last
five years.
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Places of interest:
CURRENT
MEDIAN COV
% CHANGE
(compared to
last quarter)
% CHANGE
(compared to
start of year)
CURRENT
MEDIAN COV
% CHANGE
% CHANGE
Punggol
$8,000
-73.33%
-75.38%
Sembawang
$11,500
-52.08%
-65.15%
Woodlands
$15,000
-44.44%
--55.75%
TOWN
Punggol
$10,000
-59.18%
-76.74%
Sengkang
$15,000
-50.00%
-61.04%
Woodlands /
Bukit Panjang
$13,000
-48.00%
-56.67% (Woodlands) /
-48.00% (Pasir Panjang)
(compared to
start of year)
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(compared to
last quarter)
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Current Median
Resale Price
% change
% change
Yishun
$404,000
-3.00%
-1.70%
Woodlands
$415,000
-1.78%
-1.19%
Sembawang
$426,000
-3.40%
-4.48%
(compared to
last quarter)
(compared to
start of year)
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Interestingly, the top three locations with the lowest median prices
for resale flats all belong in the northern part of Singapore, ranging
from $404,000 to $426,000 for a four-room flat and $473,000 to
$515,000 for a five-room flat.
One reason for Yishun, Sembawang and Woodlands to be
consistently demonstrating lower demand, and hence lower
transaction prices, is the longer travel distances to the city. However,
if we were to look at the bigger picture, these areas present great
opportunities for first-time home buyers and upgraders to consider
in 2014. When new amenities, transportation networks and
recreational facilities are constructed in the near future, high returns
on investment can be expected. a
(compared to last
quarter)
% change
% change
Woodlands
$473,000
-1.46%
Sembawang
$490,000
-1.71%
-2.00%
Yishun
$515,000
-1.34%
TOWN
(compared to
start of year)
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Where are
demand and
prices in the
EC Market
headed?
e
2014
FORECAST
At a glance:
v
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WATCH VIDEO: Insights into how the EC market will fare in 2014
(Thomas Tan, Principal Trainer, Real Centre Network)
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Given that there are already six ECs slated for construction in Punggol and
three in Sengkang, the addition of three more in the area might bring fierce
competition for capital gains in the long term. a
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The pRivate
property
roller coaster
continues
2014
FORECAST
At a glance:
v
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WATCH VIDEO: Industry analysts share their thoughts on the factors that
buyers take into consideration before making a property purchase
(Alice Tan, Associate Director & Head of Consultancy and Research, Knight
Frank; Alan Cheong, Senior Director, Savills; Christine Li, Head, Research &
Consultancy, OrangeTee)
Moving forward into 2014, Mohamed Ismail, the Chief Executive Officer
of Singapore Real Estate agency PropNex Realty, said, It was the
attractive pricing that set the tone for the sale of recent new launches,
and it gives the strongest signal for developers to sensitively price their
new launches to attain high take-ups.
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Projects which are value for money and have price points that
potential home buyers are comfortable with will likely be a good draw.
To be well-received, an ideal price range that developers should price
a private residential unit at will have to be between $1 million and
$1.3 million, especially if they want to attract the interest of middle- to
upper middle-income buyers, she added.
But thats not all. Location also plays an important role in determining
success.
Alan Cheong, Senior Director at Savills, said, There is an observation
that buyers traditionally come from, or live within, areas near the
vicinity of a new project launch, and I believe that this behaviour will
continue well into 2014 and even into 2015.
Tan added, Home buyers will be searching for projects in locations
which have positive attributes, such as being fairly well-connected via
public transport, and close to retail amenities or up-and-coming growth
areas. They would then weigh these factors with their launch prices
before making a decisive choice.
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As such, developers will be careful when bidding for the new GLS sites
in view of the reduced purchasing power of property seekers.
At the same time, in lieu of the projected lacklustre demand in 2014,
developers will have to be prudent in their judgement when marketing
their new launches to gain public favour. That said, they will have to
work harder to maintain the tight balancing act of managing profit
margins with costs incurred from constructing sufficient units within a
limited land space.
One way developers will be aiming to meet these objectives is through
the creation of smaller units. Working within the land area available,
developers have the opportunity to build more small units that can be
competitively priced to potential upgraders.
A definite trend that we will see more often in 2014 is the launch of
smaller units, typically compact three-bedroom units priced slightly
below $1 million. This will become a norm going forward, said
Christine Li, Head of Research and Consultancy for OrangeTee.
WATCH VIDEO: Hear which districts analysts think will shine in 2014
(Christine Li, Head, Research & Consultancy, OrangeTee; Alice Tan,
Associate Director & Head of Consultancy and Research, Knight Frank;
Alan Cheong, Senior Director, Savills)
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North Coast Innovation Corridor catering for small and medium enterprise (SME) business, linked with Seletar Regional Centres and the
Learning Corridor/Creative Clusters at Punggol.
More than 100ha of land around Woodlands MRT dedicated for commercial and residential use.
Better connectivity between Woodlands North MRT station in Singapore and Tanjung Puteri station in Johor Bahru, with the Rapid Transit
System (RTS) by 2018/19. Transport to Kuala Lumpur/Penang via the High-Speed Rail (HSR) is expected to cut travel time to Malaysian cities
to a mere 90 minutes.
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Woodlands MRT station will serve as an interchange connecting the North-South Line with the new Thomson Line.
Completion of the North-South Expressway (NSE) by 2020, slicing travel time to the city centre by 30 percent.
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The
guru view
for 2014
2014
FORECAST
At a glance:
v
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Overseas
Review
of 2013
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Overseas
Review
of 2013
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For many, its also been business as usual, contrary to what many in the
media would have you believe.
Suphin Mechuchep, Managing Director of Jones Lang LaSalle (Thailand),
said, In terms of our business operations, JLL hasnt seen much impact
from the situation. Our head office on Sathorn Road remains open as
normal.
For those who understand Thailand, they will know that this is the way
that Thais do things. Many will not be put off investing in property in
Thailand even given the uncertain short-term future.
Ultimately, the kingdom offers great value for property investors and is
a genuinely nice place to live. With prices generally 20 percent of those
in Singapore on a like-for-like basis, the kingdom is still worthy of close
attention from overseas property buyers and investors. a
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Overseas
Review
of 2013
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Overseas
Review
of 2013
Of these policies, two stand out for those seeking to invest in the
country. One is the raising of the minimum price of property that can
be purchased by overseas buyers to RM1 million from the previous
RM500,000. The other is pegging of the Real Property Gains Tax (RPGT)
for non-Citizens at 30 percent on the gains from properties sold within
five years, and five percent for subsequent years thereafter.
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This will cause buyers to stay away from the market until the
Malaysian government releases further details on how these measures
will be implemented.
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Lifestyle
Review
of 2013
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Galloping Ahead
into the New Year
With 2014 being the year of the Horse, we ask Master Lynn Yap,
Singapores Feng Shui Queen, to give a glimpse into how we
should place our bets in 2014.
What will the Year of the Horse bring for property investments?
From the feng shui point of view, the Horse year will focus on three main areas, such
as emotion, infectious illnesses and property matters.
It is known as a Jia Wu year meaning that the first half of the lunar year has yang
wood while the later half has yin fire.
This will be very challenging for property, as it is predominantly a strong fire year
with no water element . Water elements are very important when it comes to
auspicious property investments.
Since the earth will be very dry, property, which is an earth element, will see prices
start to fall sharply in the first half of the year.
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If one waits too long into the year to sell, there is a risk of losing
even more.
The advice is to not be too stubborn when it comes to selling a property.
Simply make enough and move on. There will always be an opportunity
to ride the property cycle, but only from 2019, the Year of the Pig,
onwards. Gains in capital appreciation will be substantial gains due to
steep rises in property prices, just like in 2007.
The year, 2014, will also not favour the rental market as rental prices
will start to fall quite significantly as well. However, do hold on to your
property even if rental income cannot cover the mortgage.
The year 2014 will favour buyers.
This is because falling property prices may be enticing for property
buyers, however like any investment, buyers needs to weigh the pros
and cons before making their decisions.
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About Us
PropertyGuru is Asias leading online property portal group, used by almost 11 million
property buyers, viewing over 89 million property pages and generating over 350,000
enquiries for real estate developer and agent advertisers every month.
Headquartered in Singapore, PropertyGuru was founded in 2006 by two entrepreneurs
with a vision to simplify the property search process and help buyers, sellers and investors
make better property decisions faster. Taking advantage of Asias growing affluence,
property demand and online explosion, the company received its first VC investment
funding in 2008 and secured approximately $60m investment in 2012 from Deutsche
Telekom, South East Asias largest digital investment to date.
The award winning company focuses heavily on innovation. Over the last two years, the
Company has developed and launched 16 mobile applications in four countries and three
languages. These applications have received over a million downloads. Almost 50 percent
of PropertyGurus visits in Singapore now originate from a mobile device.
PropertyGuru was also the first to integrate its website with social media, first to launch
Singapores only dedicated property newspaper - with over 100,000 copies circulated
island-wide every month. The company has also developed a property events platform,
with approximately 30 shows held annually across four countries, addressing 30,000
potential property buyers on the ground.
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Disclaimer
This report and other research materials may be found on our website at www.
propertyguru.com.sg. Questions related to information herein should be directed
to PropertyGuru at the number indicated below. This document has been prepared
by PropertyGuru for general information only. PropertyGuru makes no guarantees,
representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the information
including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability.
Whilst facts have been rigorously checked, PropertyGuru does not take responsibility for
any damage or loss suffered as a result of any inadvertent inaccuracy within this report.
This report should not be relied upon as a basis for entering into transactions without
seeking specific, qualified, professional advice. Any interested party should undertake their
own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information.
PropertyGuru excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and
warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages
arising there from.
This publication is the copyrighted property of PropertyGuru Pte. Ltd. 2014.
All rights reserved.
Information contained herein should not, in whole or part, be published, reproduced
or referred to without prior approval. Any such reproduction should be credited to
PropertyGuru.
69
Credits
Steve Melhuish
Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Andrew Batt
International Group Editor
andrew@propertyguru.com.sg
Adam Rahman
Senior Marketing Executive
adam@propertyguru.com.sg
Romesh Navaratnarajah
Senior Editor
romesh@propertyguru.com.sg
Carl Hampel
Head of Data Business
Keith Cheong
Head, Research and Analytics
Oscar Vidal
Data Engineer
Niko Nyrhila
Software Engineer
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