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2010

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1.1.

1.2.

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2.1.

2.2.

2.3.

2010

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2010

-. (2005)
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.

Jarrow, Turnbull (1995) Jarrow, Lando, Turnbull (1997),
Kijima, Komoribayashi (1998) Acharya, Das, Sundaram (2002),
Gupton, Finger, Bhatia (1997) .
Basel- 1
,
2

, ,

BIS (2004). International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards: A

2010

1.1

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3.
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5

2010


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1.2.
.
1. Value at Risk (VaR)- .
2.
3. (Faco,Vantage )
6

2010


.
VaR
VAR 1990-
1994 JP Morgan, Bank of America, KMV, UBS

CreditMetrics

. VAR ,

. 1985 27 Stephen
C. Francis (1985) VaR .
VaR

, ,

Jorion (1997), Dowd (1998), Saunders (1999)


.

DY (K ) -

F K (X )

Var- .

P = Pr [DY (K ) Var ] = FK (Var )

[*]


Var- .

0 P 0.05

. Var- .

P = Pr [DY (K ) f Var ] = 1 - P [DY (K ) Var ] = 1 - FK (Var )

2010

FK ( X ) -

FK ( X )

X P = inf {X / FK ( X ) P}

0 p P p1

FK ( X )

- -

. inf

FK ( X ) P

(*)- Var

Var = X P
Var- .

FK ( X ) -

2010

Var -
Riskmetrics
J.P.Morgan Var- Riskmetrics
(log )
.

Ft -1

(t-1) ,

Rt - P t-

Rt / Ft -1 N m t ;s t2

mt

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s t2 Rt -

m t = 0 d t2 = ad t2-1 + (1 - a )Rt2-1
a

Var-

Var

a =0.94 .

a = 0.97- .

.
Riskmetrics 5%-
Var =1.65 d t +1
2
9

2010

d t = ad t2-1 + (1 - a )Rt2
Riskmetrics- Var-

Var ( K ) =1.65 K d t +1

Var (K ) = K Var
Historical simulatron
Var- .

.
.

Rt

Var-

R1 , R2 .......... ...... Rn

10

2010

Ri - I

R(1) R( 2 ) ..................R(n )
f ( X ) F ( X )

R1 , R2 ................Rn

R(b )

R(b ) b = n p,0 < p < 1


x p F ( X )

x p = F -1 ( p) f ( X ) x p

f ( x p ) 0 .

R(b )

x p

p(1 - p )
nf 2 ( x p )

Rl

p(1 - p)
N xp , 2
, b = np
nf ( x p )

Var Rl .

np

R(b ) - (l = np ) - x p .

np -

l1 , l2 ,...l1

< np < l2
11

pi =

l1
, i = 1,2
N

xp

2010

x p =

p2 - p
p - p1
R (l1 ) +
R (l2 )
p2 - p1
p2 - p1

Component Var
Var

Component Var .

c vark = varp xk b k
2
Vx xT Vx d p
x b = x 2 = 2 = 2 =1
dp
dp
dp
T

xi bi = 1
i =1

varp = varp 1 = varp ( xi bi ) = varp x1b1 + varp x2 b 2 + ... + varp xN b N =


i =1

= c var1 + c var2 + ... + c varN


t-

( X 1 , X 2 .............X n )T

. i-
N

Wi

= xi /( xk )
k =1

12

2010

1 2 K N
R pt
Rt 2
RtN
K
Rt -1,1
Rt -1,2 K Rt -1, N
K
K
K
K
Rt - N ,1
Rt - N ,2 K Rt - N , N
Historical simulation- Var -

. t-
n
.

(W1 ,W2 ,...,WN )


R p ,t = Rt ,1W1 + ... + Rt , NWN
R p ,t -1 = Rt -1,1W1 + ... + Rt -1, NWN
K
R p ,t - N = Rt - N ,1W1 + ... + Rt - N , NWN

Var- .
Backtesting, Stresstesting
Var
. Var
. Va-
Stresstesting . Stresstesting


Stresstesting stress scener
?
.
13

2010


Merton, Black & Scholes

3.


.
1972 F.Black M.Scholes
Option

. R.Merton-
Black & Scholes-
4. call option

.


.

.
2.5.1- .
2.5.1

. , (2006), , , -

R. C. Merton. On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest

rates. Journal of Finance, 29:449470, 1974.

14

2010

. 2.5.1

Vt

K ()

VT


( S ) .
( V > K )
( OK ) ( VT - K ) .
.

S T = max (VT - K ,0 )

(2.5.1)

Call Option-
.
, Call Option
.
option .
Black&Scholes .
S Call = VN (d1 ) - Ke - rT N (d 2 )

(2.5.2)

N (d1 ) -

N (d 2 ) - d1 - .

15

d1 =

ln(V Ke - rT )

s T

s T
, d 2 = d1 - s T
2

2010

(2.5.3)

T - , r -

s -
K
.
K D = V - S Call

(2.5.4)


( ) YM (yield to maturity)
.
rY =

ln (K K D )
100
T

(2.5.5)

PD (probability of default)-

PD = 1 - N (d 2 )

(2.5.6)

ER (expected recovery)

ER =

V e rT (1 - N (d1 )) V e rT (1 - N (d1 ))
=
PD
1 - N (d 2 )

(2.5.7)

.
ELD (loss given default)
ELD = K - ER

(2.5.8)

.
16

2010

ERR =

ER
100
K

(2.5.9)

. VRD (value of risky debt)


VRD = e - rT (K - PD ELD )

(2.5.10)


.
,
20- .
( s )
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( V ), ( K ),
( r ), ( T )
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600-800 720
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Fair

isaac corp-
17

2010

,
.

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//

499,

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550-599

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800,

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3
FICO :
Equifax /Beacon/ ,
Experian /Fair Isaac/ ,
Transunion /Emoirica/ ,
, a .
,
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. Vantage score Equifax,
Experian Transunion
.
501-990 - F
.
: 501-600 F , 901- 990
.
.

18

2010

,
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.
FICO 20- 5
.
FICO Vantage .

FICO scores

Vantage Scores

FICO
:
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19

2010

4. Mix of redit, 10%


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901- 990
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A (SUPER PRIME)
B (PRIME PLUS)

701- 800

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601- 700

D (NON PRIME)

501- 600

F (HIGH RISK)

20

2010

Vantage
Vantage score 6
.

(32%)

(23%)

(15%)

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21

2010


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33

2010

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2010

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2.3
36

2010

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2010

k72

MNT

608,000,855

608,000,855

10

10

10

15

15

88

22

2A

k61

MNT

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81

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k59

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600,000,000

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k74

MNT

564,483,826

564,483,826

10

10

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15

15

88

20

2B

k145

MNT

144,868,049

144,868,049

10

10

15

12

83

19

2B

k60

MNT

497,399,074

497,399,074

10

10

10

15

12

85

16

2C

k203

MNT

177,773,075

177,773,075

10

10

15

15

78

22

3A

k162

MNT

80,000,000

80,000,000

10

10

10

15

74

24

3A

10

k1

MNT

199,309,589

199,309,589

10

10

10

15

75

22

3A

11

k188

MNT

150,000,000

150,000,000

10

10

10

15

79

24

3A

12

k49

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64,908,117

64,908,117

10

10

15

12

74

22

3A

13

k179

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58,618,394

58,618,394

10

10

10

15

73

24

3A

14

k265

MNT

80,000,000

80,000,000

10

10

15

77

22

3A

15

k251

MNT

53,152,404

53,152,404

10

15

71

25

3A

2010

16

k237

MNT

399,937,755

399,937,755

10

10

15

12

78

25

3A

17

k240

MNT

150,000,000

150,000,000

10

15

10

77

22

3A

18

k250

MNT

53,401,060

53,401,060

10

15

10

77

25

3A

19

k148

MNT

128,945,711

128,945,711

10

10

15

15

71

22

3A

20

k193

MNT

63,814,968

63,814,968

10

10

15

71

24

3A

21

k136

MNT

264,500,000

264,500,000

10

10

10

71

24

3A

22

k268

USD

999,969

1,442,794,882

10

10

15

12

78

22

3A

23

k163

MNT

79,999,693

79,999,693

10

10

15

10

73

22

3A

24

k185

MNT

51,565,178

51,565,178

10

10

10

15

74

25

3A

25

k164

MNT

77,515,186

77,515,186

10

10

15

75

22

3A

26

k128

USD

341,159

492,237,419

10

10

15

10

78

23

3A

27

k45

MNT

59,960,548

59,960,548

10

10

10

15

73

22

3A

28

k138

MNT

250,000,000

250,000,000

10

15

12

78

22

3A

29

k144

MNT

149,645,571

149,645,571

10

15

12

78

24

3A

30

k255

MNT

386,710,635

386,710,635

10

10

10

15

75

21

3B

31

k215

MNT

52,079,562

52,079,562

10

10

15

12

12

78

19

3B

32

k187

MNT

50,517,376

50,517,376

10

15

71

19

3B

33

k200

MNT

199,256,247

199,256,247

10

15

71

19

3B

34

k147

MNT

129,334,337

129,334,337

10

10

15

12

76

19

3B

35

k274

MNT

72,353,198

72,353,198

10

10

15

10

12

73

19

3B

36

k159

MNT

80,730,303

80,730,303

10

15

15

71

21

3B

37

k253

MNT

58,728,147

58,728,147

10

10

10

10

71

20

3B

38

k239

MNT

152,673,040

152,673,040

10

10

10

12

71

19

3B

39

k243

MNT

89,796,312

89,796,312

10

10

10

12

71

21

3B

40

k249

MNT

54,171,693

54,171,693

10

10

15

12

77

20

3B

41

k214

MNT

63,615,431

63,615,431

10

15

15

12

79

19

3B

42

k150

MNT

111,960,203

111,960,203

10

10

15

15

76

19

3B

2010

43

k135

MNT

270,012,109

270,012,109

10

10

15

10

75

19

3B

44

k182

MNT

53,411,912

53,411,912

10

10

15

15

79

19

3B

45

k167

USD

50,000

72,142,000

10

10

15

10

72

20

3B

46

k133

USD

225,786

325,772,784

10

15

12

71

19

3B

47

k177

MNT

59,548,376

59,548,376

10

10

15

10

75

19

3B

48

k36

MNT

66,688,005

66,688,005

10

10

15

10

78

20

3B

49

k184

MNT

52,331,916

52,331,916

10

10

15

12

79

19

3B

50

k232

MNT

87,461,459

87,461,459

10

10

15

15

80

19

3B

51

k44

MNT

164,601,472

164,601,472

10

10

15

15

77

19

3B

52

k172

MNT

65,845,574

65,845,574

10

10

15

15

79

19

3B

53

k288

MNT

90,350,430

90,350,430

15

12

71

19

3B

54

k118

MNT

70,000,000

70,000,000

10

10

10

10

10

12

78

17

3C

55

k42

MNT

51,529,667

51,529,667

10

15

15

73

18

3C

56

k264

USD

230,457

332,512,636

10

10

15

71

17

3C

57

k124

MNT

189,718,231

189,718,231

10

10

15

10

75

18

3C

58

k134

USD

202,921

292,782,983

10

10

15

12

76

14

3C

59

k221

MNT

107,745,759

107,745,759

10

10

15

12

76

18

3C

60

k212

MNT

79,663,685

79,663,685

10

10

15

12

77

17

3C

61

k154

MNT

95,806,240

95,806,240

10

15

70

25

4A

62

k97

MNT

63,703,192

63,703,192

10

10

15

15

69

22

4A

63

k55

MNT

179,829,555

179,829,555

10

15

10

66

22

4A

64

k54

MNT

192,923,139

192,923,139

10

15

66

24

4A

65

k56

MNT

114,072,564

114,072,564

10

15

66

24

4A

66

k50

MNT

59,198,449

59,198,449

10

15

67

24

4A

67

k83

MNT

108,877,704

108,877,704

10

15

64

22

4A

68

k289

USD

50,000

72,142,000

10

15

10

66

23

4A

69

k116

MNT

57,570,776

57,570,776

10

15

10

66

22

4A

2010

70

k244

MNT

82,062,113

82,062,113

10

15

64

25

4A

71

k38

MNT

700,000,000

700,000,000

10

10

10

10

67

25

4A

72

k205

MNT

200,000,000

200,000,000

15

62

25

4A

73

k64

MNT

62,000,000

62,000,000

10

15

12

67

22

4A

74

k276

MNT

77,424,314

77,424,314

10

15

64

24

4A

75

k85

MNT

68,487,501

68,487,501

15

10

64

22

4A

76

k81

MNT

349,815,890

349,815,890

15

10

63

22

4A

77

k202

MNT

57,519,660

57,519,660

10

15

65

23

4A

78

k82

USD

95,332

137,548,303

15

12

61

25

4A

79

k286

MNT

250,000,000

250,000,000

10

15

70

25

4A

80

k77

USD

90,646

130,787,271

10

10

15

65

23

4A

81

k84

MNT

99,919,503

99,919,503

10

10

12

66

22

4A

82

k242

MNT

97,335,915

97,335,915

15

12

70

23

4A

83

k247

MNT

62,746,337

62,746,337

10

15

70

22

4A

84

k70

MNT

63,416,283

63,416,283

10

15

64

25

4A

85

k33

MNT

78,979,228

78,979,228

10

63

22

4A

86

k34

MNT

69,526,978

69,526,978

10

63

22

4A

87

k15

MNT

480,670,965

480,670,965

10

10

10

65

25

4A

88

k16

MNT

400,000,000

400,000,000

10

10

10

65

25

4A

89

k19

MNT

105,627,946

105,627,946

10

15

10

69

25

4A

90

k22

MNT

70,484,067

70,484,067

10

15

10

69

22

4A

91

k23

MNT

59,606,125

59,606,125

10

15

10

69

24

4A

92

k218

USD

93,680

135,164,573

10

10

15

70

24

4A

93

k277

MNT

67,689,986

67,689,986

10

15

69

23

4A

94

k278

MNT

10

15

69

23

4A

95

k8

MNT

180,000,000

180,000,000

10

15

68

25

4A

96

k10

MNT

100,000,000

100,000,000

10

15

68

25

4A

2010

97

k176

MNT

60,234,733

60,234,733

10

15

63

23

4A

98

k153

MNT

99,214,505

99,214,505

10

15

65

22

4A

99

k168

MNT

71,141,496

71,141,496

10

15

70

22

4A

100

k234

MNT

78,480,300

78,480,300

10

15

65

23

4A

101

k219

MNT

125,523,853

125,523,853

10

15

66

23

4A

102

k9

MNT

100,000,000

100,000,000

15

10

62

23

4A

103

k204

MNT

79,962,482

79,962,482

10

15

15

65

19

4B

104

k78

MNT

71,565,920

71,565,920

10

10

12

63

19

4B

105

k238

MNT

210,352,877

210,352,877

10

15

69

19

4B

106

k115

MNT

60,000,000

60,000,000

10

15

10

61

21

4B

107

k211

MNT

80,000,000

80,000,000

10

10

15

65

21

4B

108

k51

MNT

110,404,227

110,404,227

10

15

66

20

4B

109

k57

MNT

80,000,000

80,000,000

10

15

10

63

21

4B

110

k170

MNT

66,983,069

66,983,069

15

10

65

19

4B

111

k222

MNT

103,831,518

103,831,518

10

10

15

69

19

4B

112

k225

MNT

68,007,744

68,007,744

10

10

15

69

19

4B

113

k39

MNT

150,000,000

150,000,000

10

15

10

65

20

4B

114

k210

USD

80,674

116,400,064

10

15

64

21

4B

115

k71

MNT

30,159,433

30,159,433

10

15

62

22

4B

116

k262

MNT

50,129,898

50,129,898

10

10

15

70

20

4B

117

k160

MNT

80,000,000

80,000,000

10

10

15

10

70

19

4B

118

k283

MNT

738,800,475

738,800,475

10

15

70

19

4B

119

k80

MNT

399,789,274

399,789,274

10

10

61

19

4B

120

k208

MNT

144,177,431

144,177,431

15

15

62

19

4B

121

k241

MNT

135,036,175

135,036,175

10

12

67

20

4B

122

k246

MNT

64,293,365

64,293,365

15

10

12

65

19

4B

123

k206

MNT

84,248,522

84,248,522

10

15

10

69

19

4B

2010

124

k66

MNT

597,271,261

597,271,261

10

15

68

19

4B

125

k91

MNT

69,420,375

69,420,375

10

15

10

66

20

4B

126

k17

MNT

194,724,180

194,724,180

10

15

10

68

19

4B

127

k132

MNT

335,000,000

335,000,000

10

15

67

21

4B

128

k183

MNT

52,922,534

52,922,534

10

10

15

68

20

4B

129

k201

MNT

72,596,499

72,596,499

10

15

66

21

4B

130

k131

MNT

375,699,180

375,699,180

10

15

65

20

4B

131

k142

MNT

227,849,825

227,849,825

10

10

15

10

70

19

4B

132

k67

MNT

119,662,571

119,662,571

10

15

67

19

4B

133

k181

MNT

54,296,213

54,296,213

10

15

65

19

4B

134

k169

MNT

70,000,000

70,000,000

10

10

15

70

19

4B

135

k68

MNT

96,429,806

96,429,806

10

15

10

70

21

4B

136

k95

MNT

69,823,111

69,823,111

15

12

61

19

4B

137

k27

MNT

199,644,890

199,644,890

10

15

61

21

4B

138

k233

MNT

79,487,653

79,487,653

10

10

15

61

19

4B

139

k229

MNT

189,426,000

189,426,000

10

61

21

4B

140

k226

MNT

60,514,574

60,514,574

10

15

63

19

4B

141

k223

MNT

73,101,213

73,101,213

10

15

64

19

4B

142

k93

MNT

187,716,500

187,716,500

15

15

66

19

4B

143

k2

MNT

110,658,918

110,658,918

10

15

10

69

21

4B

144

k94

MNT

60,121,938

60,121,938

10

10

15

12

70

16

4C

145

k123

MNT

69,601,425

69,601,425

10

10

10

10

68

16

4C

146

k58

MNT

51,517,816

51,517,816

10

15

10

62

18

4C

147

k260

MNT

57,063,393

57,063,393

10

15

64

16

4C

148

k161

MNT

80,000,000

80,000,000

10

15

65

17

4C

149

k263

USD

244,923

353,384,961

10

10

15

67

16

4C

150

k90

MNT

141,264,770

141,264,770

10

15

63

15

4C

151

k32

MNT

88,109,985

88,109,985

152

k31

MNT

93,130,497

93,130,497

153

k194

MNT

56,454,022

154

k267

MNT

64,232,022

155

k35

MNT

156

k65

157

k216

158

2010

10

15

62

17

4C

10

15

64

17

4C

56,454,022

10

15

15

67

16

4C

64,232,022

10

10

15

66

16

4C

142,470,518

142,470,518

10

10

12

70

18

4C

MNT

299,989,822

299,989,822

15

10

63

15

4C

MNT

259,567,287

259,567,287

10

10

15

70

17

4C

k129

USD

291,977

421,275,691

10

15

10

66

15

4C

159

k166

MNT

73,595,795

73,595,795

10

15

61

18

4C

160

k130

MNT

377,241,159

377,241,159

10

15

10

64

18

4C

161

k165

MNT

75,759,436

75,759,436

10

15

10

64

17

4C

162

k146

MNT

132,840,048

132,840,048

10

10

15

10

67

17

4C

163

k37

MNT

62,769,162

62,769,162

10

12

61

17

4C

164

k171

MNT

66,286,995

66,286,995

10

15

10

70

20

4C

165

k43

MNT

119,200,850

119,200,850

10

15

62

17

4C

166

k280

USD

889,788

1,283,821,429

10

15

10

69

14

4C

167

k261

MNT

56,403,916

56,403,916

10

15

61

18

4C

168

k266

MNT

75,866,474

75,866,474

10

10

15

70

16

4C

169

k4

MNT

65,733,166

65,733,166

10

10

15

64

17

170

k48

MNT

50,351,706

50,351,706

15

10

60

22

5A

171

k198

MNT

64,939,320

64,939,320

10

10

10

55

24

5A

172

k29

MNT

99,922,338

99,922,338

15

60

25

5A

173

k178

MNT

58,941,081

58,941,081

10

56

24

5A

174

k275

MNT

70,000,000

70,000,000

10

12

57

24

5A

175

k100

MNT

62,804,447

62,804,447

15

15

60

20

5B

176

k270

USD

219,114

316,146,299

10

15

57

20

5B

177

k125

MNT

60,814,794

60,814,794

15

57

20

5B

2010

178

k127

MNT

500,000,000

500,000,000

15

56

21

5B

179

k109

MNT

84,736,514

84,736,514

10

10

10

60

21

5B

180

k86

USD

34,923

50,387,840

10

15

59

18

5C

181

k122

MNT

71,957,984

71,957,984

10

10

55

18

5C

182

k196

MNT

91,691,104

91,691,104

15

10

60

16

5C

183

k252

MNT

132,036,396

132,036,396

10

10

10

56

14

5C

184

k248

MNT

55,789,069

55,789,069

10

12

60

15

5C

185

k140

MNT

234,412,601

234,412,601

10

10

15

60

17

5C

186

k186

MNT

50,763,588

50,763,588

10

59

18

5C

187

k230

MNT

178,449,565

178,449,565

10

10

10

60

18

5C

188

k41

MNT

55,532,401

55,532,401

15

15

60

16

5C

189

k217

MNT

193,649,424

193,649,424

10

10

56

18

5C

190

k190

MNT

122,115,742

122,115,742

15

59

17

5C

191

k28

USD

100,000

144,284,000

15

46

22

6A

192

k117

MNT

59,227,525

59,227,525

10

RR6

25

6A

193

k79

MNT

61,341,324

61,341,324

10

RR6

10

15

24

6A

194

k3

MNT

51,641,091

51,641,091

10

54

19

6B

195

k180

MNT

56,547,176

56,547,176

10

10

54

19

6B

196

k87

MNT

699,834,296

699,834,296

10

10

RR6

RR6

15

20

6B

197

k88

MNT

552,921,222

552,921,222

10

10

RR6

RR6

15

20

6B

198

k175

MNT

61,530,262

61,530,262

15

50

19

6B

199

k156

MNT

90,440,995

90,440,995

10

10

15

RR6

19

6B

200

k69

MNT

74,570,000

74,570,000

15

53

21

6B

201

k207

MNT

147,367,012

147,367,012

15

48

18

6C

202

k269

USD

279,049

402,622,482

12

49

14

6C

203

k195

MNT

149,086,190

149,086,190

15

10

55

17

6C

204

k40

MNT

90,847,896

90,847,896

10

12

52

16

6C

2010

205

k155

MNT

95,000,000

95,000,000

RR6

18

6C

206

k107

MNT

88,976,527

88,976,527

12

49

17

6C

207

k101

MNT

62,033,282

62,033,282

15

RR6

17

6C

208

k231

MNT

163,082,806

163,082,806

10

39

15

6C

209

k96

MNT

635,791,183

635,791,183

15

12

52

16

6C

210

k105

MNT

297,722,058

297,722,058

10

41

16

6C

211

k192

MNT

65,482,113

65,482,113

10

10

RR6

17

6C

212

k273

USD

149,932

216,327,627

10

RR7

15

12

24

7A

213

k259

MNT

151,113,193

151,113,193

10

RR7

15

22

7A

214

k89

MNT

149,991,235

149,991,235

10

RR7

15

15

25

7A

215

k92

MNT

64,494,887

64,494,887

10

RR7

15

15

24

7A

216

k106

MNT

100,000,000

100,000,000

RR7

10

10

23

7A

217

k189

MNT

146,985,124

146,985,124

10

RR7

15

23

7A

218

k227

MNT

51,674,578

51,674,578

10

10

15

RR7

22

7A

219

k26

MNT

200,000,000

200,000,000

10

10

15

RR7

24

7A

220

k20

MNT

92,434,650

92,434,650

RR7

10

RR6

23

7A

221

k12

MNT

72,023,293

72,023,293

10

RR7

15

RR7

22

7A

222

k62

MNT

387,969,739

387,969,739

10

RR7

15

RR7

22

7A

223

k63

MNT

77,937,957

77,937,957

10

RR7

15

RR7

22

7A

224

k152

MNT

99,965,943

99,965,943

10

RR7

15

RR6

22

7A

225

k235

MNT

72,294,296

72,294,296

RR7

15

22

7A

226

k224

MNT

71,830,829

71,830,829

10

15

RR7

24

7A

227

k102

MNT

59,999,153

59,999,153

RR7

10

15

10

25

7A

228

k99

MNT

93,158,056

93,158,056

RR7

15

RR7

21

7B

229

k272

USD

150,000

216,425,971

10

RR7

10

15

12

20

7B

230

k271

USD

181,263

261,533,925

10

RR7

15

12

19

7B

231

k30

MNT

99,266,951

99,266,951

10

10

RR7

19

7B

2010

232

k254

USD

297,730

429,577,431

10

RR7

10

15

21

7B

233

k256

MNT

372,867,738

372,867,738

10

RR7

10

15

21

7B

234

k228

MNT

50,584,454

50,584,454

15

RR7

21

7B

235

k104

MNT

488,425,713

488,425,713

RR7

10

10

19

7B

236

k13

MNT

55,512,720

55,512,720

RR7

15

RR7

19

7B

237

k191

MNT

65,500,015

65,500,015

10

RR7

15

19

7B

238

k21

MNT

89,536,044

89,536,044

10

RR7

15

15

20

7B

239

k213

MNT

67,950,870

67,950,870

15

RR7

12

19

7B

240

k7

MNT

186,000,000

186,000,000

10

RR7

15

21

7B

241

k137

MNT

255,713,821

255,713,821

10

RR7

10

RR6

21

7B

242

k141

MNT

233,766,340

233,766,340

10

RR7

RR7

19

7B

243

k157

USD

60,974

87,976,260

10

RR7

RR7

19

7B

244

k151

USD

73,075

105,435,793

10

RR7

10

21

7B

245

k281

USD

786,893

1,135,361,172

RR6

10

RR7

20

7B

246

k119

MNT

375,000,000

375,000,000

RR7

15

20

7B

247

k98

MNT

217,054,976

217,054,976

10

RR7

10

RR7

19

7B

248

k121

MNT

350,000,000

350,000,000

10

10

10

15

RR7

16

7C

249

k285

USD

314,824

454,240,054

10

15

RR7

15

7C

250

k287

USD

81,187

117,140,414

10

RR7

15

17

7C

251

k112

MNT

328,174,540

328,174,540

10

RR7

RR6

RR7

16

7C

252

k24

MNT

596,067,363

596,067,363

10

10

RR7

16

7C

253

k197

MNT

78,457,932

78,457,932

10

15

RR7

16

7C

254

k284

USD

383,907

553,916,044

RR7

15

17

7C

255

k73

MNT

583,368,594

583,368,594

RR7

15

12

16

7C

256

k75

USD

300,000

432,852,000

RR7

15

12

17

7C

257

k14

USD

418,911

604,421,403

10

RR7

RR7

18

7C

258

k111

USD

371,410

535,885,334

10

15

10

RR7

17

7C

2010

259

k114

USD

116,833

168,571,096

10

15

10

RR7

14

7C

260

k282

USD

592,816

855,338,666

10

RR7

10

15

RR7

RR7

18

7C

261

k149

MNT

122,999,941

122,999,941

10

RR7

15

18

7C

262

k173

USD

44,960

64,869,379

10

RR7

10

10

RR6

17

7C

263

k139

MNT

242,923,443

242,923,443

RR7

10

RR7

18

7C

264

k143

MNT

154,913,053

154,913,053

RR7

10

RR7

18

7C

265

k236

USD

40,916

59,035,559

RR7

10

15

7C

RR6

15

RR7

12

7D

15

RR6

19

9B

266

k158

MNT

86,455,124

86,455,124

10

R
R
6

267

k220

MNT

108,844,767

108,844,767

10

RR9

268

k52

USD

429,199

619,265,485

10

15

10

66

RR6

RR6

269

k53

USD

164,629

237,533,718

RR7

15

RR6

RR6

RR6

270

k76

USD

122,963

177,416,065

10

10

15

15

81

RR6

RR6

271

k245

USD

49,070

70,799,567

10

15

10

77

RR6

RR6

272

k108

USD

60,048

86,640,291

10

10

12

62

RR6

RR6

273

k18

USD

100,523

145,037,999

10

10

10

65

RR6

RR6

274

k258

USD

249,553

360,065,527

10

10

60

RR6

RR6

275

k174

USD

43,851

63,269,703

10

15

15

72

RR6

RR6

276

k126

USD

431,981

623,279,798

10

10

10

71

RR6

RR6

277

k120

USD

50,368

72,673,008

15

12

67

RR6

RR6

278

k279

USD

1,769,124

2,552,562,930

10

RR7

10

15

RR6

RR6

279

k110

USD

656,577

947,335,463

10

RR7

RR6

RR7

RR7

RR7

280

k257

USD

249,681

360,249,584

10

RR6

RR7

RR6

RR7

281

k25

USD

382,428

551,782,084

RR7

RR6

RR7

282

k103

USD

3,447,645

4,974,400,732

RR7

10

10

RR6

RR7

283

k46

USD

36,485

52,641,729

15

12

59

RR7

RR7

284

k113

USD

210,690

303,991,817

10

15

10

RR7

RR6

RR7

2010

285

k209

USD

262,133

378,216,425

10

10

15

RR7

RR6

RR7

286

k6

USD

133,435

192,524,700

10

RR7

10

RR7

RR6

RR7

287

k5

USD

483,800

698,045,429

RR7

RR6

RR7

RR7

RR6

RR7

288

k11

USD

51,370

74,118,965

10

RR7

15

12

RR6

RR7

289

k199

USD

449,617

648,726,070

10

RR7

10

RR6

RR7

290

k295

MNT

110,421,326

110,421,326

10

RR10

RR10

291

k294

MNT

87,028,452

87,028,452

10

RR10

292

k291

MNT

473,984,932

473,984,932

10

RR10

RR10

293

k292

MNT

60,511,555

60,511,555

10

RR10

RR10

294

k297

MNT

67,804,676

67,804,676

10

RR10

RR10

295

k296

MNT

180,491,345

180,491,345

10

RR10

296

k290

MNT

331,890,111

331,890,111

10

RR10

297

k293

MNT

242,419,772

242,419,772

10

RR10

RR10

298

k288

MNT

104,600,022

104,600,022

10

RR10

RR10

299

k289

MNT

114,051,001

114,051,001

10

RR10

RR10

300

k298

USD

387,662

559,334,630

10

RR10

RR10

RR10

RR10
RR10

61,735,150,246

5.2

2,135,088,045

10.0

63,870,238,291

5.3

2010

2010

1. . , (2005), , ,

2.. , 2003
3. ., . E-views 2005
4. . , (2006 ), ,
,
5. ., (2005),
,
6.

. , (1999), , ,

7.

. , (2001), ,

8. Acharya, V.V., S.R. Das and R.K. Sundaram (2002), Arbitrage-Free Pricing of
Credit Derivatives with Rating Transitions, Financial Analysts Journal 58 (3),
28-44.
9. Allison, P. D., 1982. Discrete-time Methods for the Analysis of Event Histories.
In Samuel Leinhardt (ed.), Sociological Methodology 1982, San Francisco: JosseyBass, pp. 61-98
10. Altman, E. I., 1968. Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of

60

2010

Corporate Bankruptcy. Journal of Finance, vol. 23, no. 4, pp. 589-609


11. Altman, E. I. and A. Saunders, 1998. Credit risk measurement: Developments
over the last 20 years. Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 21, pp. 1721-1742
12. M. Gordy. A risk-factor foundation for risk-based capital rules. Journal of
Financial Intermediation, 12:199232, 2003.
13. Jones, F. L., 1987. Current Techniques in Bankruptcy Prediction. Journal of
Accounting Literature, vol. 6, pp. 131-164
14. R. C. Merton, On the pricing for corporate debt: the risk structure of
interest rates, J. Finance 29 (1974), 449470.

61

2010


32. www.mongolbank.mn
33. www.anod.mn
34. www.riskmetrics.com
35.

www.moodyskmv.com

36.

www.standardandpoors.com

37.

www.moodys.com

38.

www.fitchibca.com

39.

www.big.org

40.

www.bankofengland.co.uk

41.

www.fsa.gov.uk

42.

www.defaultrisk.com

43.

www.tavakolistructuredfinance.com

44.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black-Scholes_equation

45.

http://www.csfb.com/creditrisk

62

2010

63

2010

64

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