Regresion lineal

n xy x y
y= a+bx

b=

i=1

i =1

n x
i=1

( x )

1
b
a= y x
n i=1
n i=1

i=1

i=1

Coeficiente de correlacion

r=

n xy( x )( y )

n x 2

( x )

n y 2 ( y )

En un zoologico se require saber una formula que indique cual va a ser el peso fin
un ao y la pr0porcion de comida que se le sumnistra. Los datos tomados estan a
Animal

Peso Ini

Alimento

Peso F

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

42
33
33
45
39
36
32
41
40
32

272
226
259
292
311
183
173
236
230
235

95
77
80
100
97
70
50
80
92
84

X'

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

42
33
33
45
39
36
32
41
40
32

272
226
259
292
311
183
173
236
230
235

42
272
X'X

10
373
2417
(X'X)-1

7.22
-0.17
0.00
(X'X)-1X

-0.80
0.02
0.00
(X'X)-1XY
B0

-11.7462918012

B1

0.9648438666

B2

0.2410327496

y= BO+B1X1+B2X2

Promedio
Suma

Peso F

Peso F est

(yest-y prom)2

95
77
80
100
97
70
50
80
92
84

94
75
83
102
101
67
61
85
82
76

140.14
62.93
0.00
382.33
336.50
237.25
469.70
4.82
0.05
45.27

83
825

83
825

1679

Regresion Multiple

1
b
a= y x
n i=1
n i=1

Coefiente de determinacion
Coeficiente de detreminacion ajustado

R2a =1( 1 R2 )

n1
nk 1

ue cual va a ser el peso final de una animal, teniendo en cuenta el peso con que tenia el anim
Los datos tomados estan a continuacion.

33
226

33
259

45
292

39
311

36
183

32
173

373
14113
91218

2417
91218
601365

-0.17
0.01
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00

0.87
-0.02
0.00

0.75
-0.04
0.00

-1.37
0.03
0.00

-0.44
-0.02
0.01

0.54
0.02
0.00

1.24
-0.01
0.00

(y-y prom)2
156.25
30.25
6.25
306.25
210.25
156.25
1056.25
6.25
90.25
2.25
2021

R2
R2Ajustado

0.83097897
0.78268725

treminacion ajustado

R2 )

n1
nk 1

con que tenia el animal hace

41
236

40
230

32
235

-0.49
0.03
0.00

-0.31
0.03
0.00

1.01
-0.04
0.00

Demanda real

Pronostico Ultimo Dato

St = dt-1
t2

Pronostico Promedio Global

St =dt

dt

161

165

161.00

16.00

161.00

158

165.00

49.00

163.00

4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

158
164
152
153
155
163
159
163
160
160
158
155
154
162
164
159
159
Pronostico

158.00
158.00
164.00
152.00
153.00
155.00
163.00
159.00
163.00
160.00
160.00
158.00
155.00
154.00
162.00
164.00
159.00
159.00

0.00
36.00
144.00
1.00
4.00
64.00
16.00
16.00
9.00
0.00
4.00
9.00
1.00
64.00
4.00
25.00
0.00

161.33
160.50
161.20
159.67
158.71
158.25
158.78
158.80
159.18
159.25
159.31
159.21
158.93
158.63
158.82
159.11
159.11
159.10

e2

e2

24.32

DEMANDA

300
250
200
150
100

Zmax
R1
R2

50
0
0

10

15

20

25

Pronostico Promedio Global

Pronostico Promedio Movil N=3

St

Pronostico Promedio Movil N=5

St

t2

16.00

25.00

11.11
12.25
84.64
44.44
13.80
22.56
0.05
17.64
0.67
0.56
1.71
17.76
24.34
11.39
26.80
0.01
0.01

161.33
160.33
160.00
158.00
156.33
153.33
157.00
159.00
161.67
160.67
161.00
159.33
157.67
155.67
157.00
160.00
161.67
160.67

11.11
13.44
64.00
25.00
1.78
93.44
4.00
16.00
2.78
0.44
9.00
18.78
13.44
40.11
49.00
1.00
7.11

161.20
159.40
157.00
156.40
157.40
156.40
158.60
160.00
161.00
160.00
159.20
157.40
157.80
158.60
158.80
159.60

84.64
40.96
4.00
43.56
2.56
43.56
1.96
0.00
9.00
25.00
27.04
21.16
38.44
0.16
0.04

17.41

e2

21.79

e2

22.81

Pronostico Promedio Movil Ponderado N=3

1
St
0.2914047284

Pronostico Promedio Movil Ponderado N=3

1
St

0.07

0.64
t2

1.89
15.68
96.49
2.58
1.29
81.31
0.26
23.81
7.37
0.01
8.26
13.88
7.14
45.74
21.27
3.78
1.52

163.06
155.53
154.67
156.71
158.79
157.85
160.46
161.01
159.96
159.57
156.94
155.83
159.56
161.01
158.63
159.91

159.37
160.04
161.82
154.61
156.13
153.98
159.51
158.12
162.71
159.92
160.87
158.73
156.67
155.24
159.39
160.94
160.23
160.46
e2

19.54

e2

romedio Movil Ponderado N=3

0.010993505
0.24

PronosticoSuavisacion exponencial simple

St dt + (1-) St-1

0.05

161.00

16.00

0.1379185515

161.00

9.00

0.56
t2
122.27
6.38
0.11
39.51
0.04
26.49
0.21
1.02
3.83
20.86
8.65
38.13
19.67
4.06
0.14

161.00
161.00
161.00
161.00
161.00
161.00
161.00
161.00
161.00
161.00
161.00
161.00
161.00
161.00
161.00
161.00
161.00
161.00

9.00
9.00
81.00
64.00
36.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
1.00
1.00
9.00
36.00
49.00
1.00
9.00
4.00
4.00

18.25

e2

18.42

dt

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

13
16
19
21
23
26
26
31
34
36
39
41
40
47
49
52
54
57
63
62

0.1
St

0.16
Gt

dt-1 + (1-)(St - 1 + Gt - 1)
13.00
15.63
18.00
20.00
22.00
24.00
26.00
28.00
30.00
32.00
34.00
36.00
38.00
40.00
42.00
44.00
46.00
48.00
51.00

24.5

Go =

(St - St - 1) + (1 - )Gt-1

2.59

50.4
Pronosticos
F t = ST +GT*k

2.59
2.60
2.56
2.47
2.40
2.33
2.28
2.23
2.20
2.17
2.14
2.12
2.10
2.08
2.07
2.06
2.05
2.04
2.19

53.19
55.39
57.58

e2

DEMANDA

12

10

0
0

10

12


t2
(St-dt)2
9
11.350161
9
9
16
4
25
36
36
49
49
16
81
81
100
100
121
225
121
57.8079032105

12

Trimestre
1
2
3
4
Promedio anual
Promedio Global

d2 prom
6.5
145.5
d3 prom
10.5
167.5

Ft des
conociendo
d13

1
60
234
163
50

Ao
2
69
266
188
59

126.75

145.5

dt

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

60
234
163
50
69
266
188
59
84
310
212
64

13
14
15
16
17
18
19

93
351
242
74
104
392
269

3
84
310
212
64

T=
L=
R=

167.5
146.58

GT

ST

5.5

176.83

FT+k = (ST + kGT)CT+k-gl

Dprom + ((T-1) / 2) GT

dt / (ST - GT (T-t))

ST

Ct

5.500

176.83

0.52
1.92
1.28
0.38

0.50
1.85
1.26
0.38

4.09

3.99

Ct Prom * R

(d3 prom-d2 prom) / L

12
4
0.993903594
L / Ct

GT

Ct Prom

C't

0.52
1.87
1.24
0.36

0.51
1.88
1.26
0.37

0.51
1.87
1.25
0.37

3.99

4.02

4.00

Grafica

Ct
0.51
1.87
1.25
0.37

350
300

Demanda

250
200
150
100
50
0
0

6
Periodo

10

12

rafica

Datos
Linear (Datos)
Promedios
Promedio global

10

12

14

(d3 prom-d2 prom) / L

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

Promedio anual
Promedio Global (Dprom)

d2 prom
2.5
145.5
d3 prom
6.5
167.5

Si en el
preiodo 13
d = 97

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

10

1
60
234
163
50

Ao
2
69
266
188
59

126.75

145.5

dt
60
234
163
50
69
266
188
59
84
310
212
64
112
361
243
73
101

12

GT
5.500

14

3
84
310
212
64

T = 12
L= 4
R = 0.989967479
L / Ct

167.5
146.58

GT

5.5
6.11

ST

Ct

176.83
188.44

0.50
1.87
1.26
0.37
0.52
(dT / ST) + (1- )CT - L

Trimestre
1
2
3
4

( dT / C T - L) + (1 - )(S T - 1 + G T - 1)

( ST - S T - 1 ) + (1 - ) B T - 1

=
=
=

176.83

Ct Prom * R

dt / (ST - GT (T-t))

Dprom + ((T-1) / 2) GT

ST

Ct
0.52
1.92
1.28
0.38
4.09

0.50
1.85
1.26
0.38
3.99

0.15
0.1
0.2

Nuevo R =

0.9954

Ct Prom

C't

0.52
1.87
1.24
0.36
3.99

0.51
1.89
1.27
0.38
4.04

0.50
1.87
1.26
0.37

Ct

C't

0.52
1.87
1.26
0.37
4.02

0.52
1.86
1.25
0.37