AN APPROXIMATE POWER PREDICTION METHOD by J. Holtrop* and G.G.J. Mennen* 1. Introduction In a recent publication [1] a statistical method was presented for the determination of the required pro- pulsive power at the initial design stage of a ship. This method was developed through a regression analysis of random model experiments and fullscale data, available at the Netherlands Ship Model Basin, Because the accuracy of the method was reported to be insuf- ficient when unconventional combinations of main parameters were used, an attempt was made to extend the method by adjusting the original numerical predic- tion model to test data obtained in some specific cases This adaptation of the method has resulted into a set of prediction formulae with a wider range of applica- tion. Nevertheless, it should be noticed that the given ‘modifications have a tentative character only, because the adjustments are based on a small number of ex- periments, In any case, the application is limited to hull forms resembling the average ship described by the main dimensions and form coefficients used in the method. The extension of the method was focussed on im- proving the power prediction of high-block ships with low L/B-ratios and of slender naval ships with a com- plex appendage arrangement and immersed transom sterns. Some parts of this study were carried out in the scope of the NSMB Co-operative Research programme The adaptation of the method to naval ships was carried out in a research study for the Royal Nether- lands Navy. Permission to publish results of these studies is gratefully acknowledged. 2. Resistance prediction ‘The total resistance of a ship has been subdivided into: Regia = Rp +ky) +Ryppt Ry +Ry * Rye + Ry where: Ry frictional resistance according to the ITTC- 1957 friction formula 1+k, form factor describing the viscous resistance of the hull form in relation to Ry Rapp Tesistance of appendages Ry wave-making and wave-breaking resistance Rg additional pressure resistance of bulbous bow near the water surface a *) Netherlands Ship Model Basin, (Marin), Wapeinge, The Netherlands, Ryp additional pressure resistance of immersed transom stern t4 model-ship correlation resistance. For the form factor of the hull the prediction for- mula: 14K, = e,5 (0.93 + ,9(B/Ly 927 (0.95 ~ Cy 95248 (1 — Cy +0.0225 1) ean be used. In this formula C, is the prismatic coefficient based on the waterline length £ and feb is the longitudinal position of the centre of buoyancy forward of 0.5L as, 2 percentage of Z. In the form-factor formula Ly is a Parameter reflecting the length of the run according to: LgiL=1~ Cp + 0.06 Cpleb|(4 Cp — 1) The coefficient ¢,, is defined as: when T/L > 0.05 Tinyo22 846 48.20(T/L — 0.02)7078 + 0.479948 when 0.02 < T/L < 0.05 when T/L < 0.02 0.479948 a In this formula T is the average moulded draught, The coefficient ¢,; accounts for the specific shape of the afterbody and is related to the coefficient Coy, 9° cording to: 45 = 1 + 0.003 €, 8 ‘tern For the coefficient C, “sem the following tentative ‘guidelines are given Afterbody form Coreen Veshaped sections 10 Normal section shape 0 U-shaped sections with Hogner stern +10 The wetted area of the hull can be approximated well by: S=LQT +B) VCy (0.453 + 0.4425 Cy + — 0.2862 Cy — 0.003467 B/T +0.3696 Cyp) + $2.38 Apr /Cy - In this formula Cy is the midship section coef ficient, Cy is the block coefficient on the basis of thewaterline length L, Cyp is the waterplane area coef- ficient and Ay is the transverse sectional area of the bulb at the position where the still: water surface inter~ sects the stem. The appendage resistance can be determined from Rapp = 95 DVS gppll + ha eg Cp where p is the water density, V the speed of the ship, Sapp the wetted area of the appendages, 1 +k, the appendage resistance factor and Cy the coefficient of frictional resistance of the ship according to the ITTC- 1957 formula, In the Table below tentative 14k, values are given for streamlined flow-oriented appendages. These values were obtained from resistance tests with bare and appended ship models. In several of these tests turbulence stimulators were present at the leading edges to induce turbulent flow over the appendages. Approximate 1 +k, values rudder behind skeg 15-20 rudder behind stern 13-15 twin-screw balance rudders 2.8 shaft brackets 3.0 skeg 15-20 strut bossings 3.0 hull bossings 20 shafts 20-40 stabilizer fins 28 dome 27 bilge keels 14 The equivalent 1+, value for a combination of appendages is determined from: EC +K)S pp Sapp (4k Deg ‘The appendage resistance can be increased by the resistance of bow thruster tunnel openings according to: ov. 20° Coro where d is the tunnel diameter. ‘The coefficient Cy7q ranges from 0.003 to 0.012, For ‘openings in the cylindrical part of a bulbous bow the lower figures should be used. The wave resistance is determined from: Ry =C,¢3¢5 Vow expim, Fa +m, cos(F, ?)} with: 1 = 2223105 3.78615 (7B 1.0798 (99 — jg) 197888 + = 0.229577 (B/L)399 when B/L < 0.11 BIL when 0.11 < B/L < 0.25 cy = 0.5 ~ 0.0625 LB when B/E > 0.25 exp(— 1.89.¥e) 1-084, (BT Cy) In these expressions ¢, is @ parameter which accounts for the reduction of the wave resistance due to the ac- tion of a bulbous bow. Similarly, c, expresses the in- fluence of a transom stern on the wave resistance. In the expression A, represents the immersed part of the transverse area of the transom at zero speed. In this figure the transverse area of wedges placed at the transom chine should be included. In the formula for the wave resistance, F, is the Froude number based on the waterline length L, The other parameters can be determined from: d= 1.486 C, ~ 0.03.L/8 when L/B < 12 A = 1446 C — 0.36 when L/B > 12 my = 0.0140407 L/T ~ 1.75254 v9 /L + ~ 4.79323 Bil. eg 8.07981 Cp ~ 13.8673 C3 + 6.984388 C} when Cp < 0.80 when Cp > 0.80 1.73014 ~ 0.7067 C, 2) ys CP expel 0.1 Fy my The coefficient cy, is equal to 1.69385 for 13/7 < 512, whereas ¢y5 = 0.0 for L3/9 > 1727. For values of 512.< L3/9 <1727, cy, is determined from: ys =~ 1.69385 + (L/7 #3— 8.0)/2.36 1s a=-09 The half angle of entrance ig is the angle of the waterline at the bow in degrees with reference to the centre plane but neglecting the local shape at the stem. If ig. is unknown, use can be made of the following formula: (L/B)9 9856 (1 0.0225 teb)*367( Lg /B)°*5 ig = 1489 exp Cy p a-G (100 9/3 046302 This formula, obtained by regression analysis of over 200 hull shapes, yields iy values between 1° and 90° ‘The original equation in {1} sometimes resulted in negative i, values for exceptional combinations of hhull-form parameters. The coefficient that determines the influence of the bulbous bow on the wave resistance is defined as: 0.56 Abg/(BTO31 VAgy + Ty — hy)where /tg is the position of the centre of the trans- verse area Ag, above the keel line and T, is the for- ward draught of the ship. ‘The additional resistance due to the presence of a bulbous bow near the surface is determined from: Ry = 0.11 exp(—3 Pp?) F3,A}S pai + £3) Where the coefficient Py is a measure for the emer- gence of the bow and F,, is the Froude number based on the immersion: Py = 0.56 VAgpi(Tp — 1.5 hg) and Fy 2 Vie p= ip ~0.25 Vg) +0.15 V? In a similar way the additional pressure resistance due to the immersed transom can be determined: Ryp = 05 pV2A gc, ‘The coefficient c, has been related to the Froude number based on the transom immersion 0.21 ~ 02 Fyp) « when Fyp <5 when Fyp 25 a has been defined as: Fy = VWTeA, KB FBC, ,) In this definition Ciyp is the waterplane area coeffi- cient. ‘The model-ship correlation resistance Ry with Ry =KeVSC, is supposed to describe primarily the effect ofthe hull roughness and the sil-ar resistance, From an analysis of results of speed trials, which have been corrected to ideal wial conditions, the following formula for the correlation allowance coefficient C, was found: Cy = 0.006(L + 100) 48 — 0.00205 + +0.003VE/7S Cf (0.04 ~ cy) with eg = Tplk when T/L $0.04 = 0.04 when 7,/L > 0.04 In addition, Cy might be increased to calculate e.g. the effect of a larger hull roughness than standard, To this end the ITTC-1978 formulation can be used from which the increase of C, can be derived for roughness values higher than the standard figure of k, = 150 um (mean apparent amplitude) increase C, = (0.105 43 — 0.005579) In these formulae L and k, are given in metres. 3. Prediction of propulsion factors The statistical prediction formulae for estimating the effective wake fraction, the thrust deduction frac tion and the relative-rotative efficiency as presented in [1] could be improved on several points. For single-screw ships with a conventional stem ar Tangement the following adapted formula for the wake fraction can be used: w=e5 6, (o06ars 1.217866, Loe eT i "Gp [BF 0.09726 , 0.11434 +0.24558 v8 O1434 VET Gi) 095-C, "085 —Cy $0.75 CyaggCy + 0.002 Cary The coefficient eg depends on a coefficient cy defined as: when B/T, <5 SSILDT 4) (78/7, ~ 25)(LD(BIT, ~ 3)) when B/T, > 5 when cy < 28 16)(c, 24) when ¢, > 28 when 7, /D <2 4, = 0.0833333(T, /D)? + 1.33333 when T, /D> 2 In the formula for the wake fraction, Cy is the vis- cous resistance coefficient with Cy = (1+) Cy +C, Further: Cp, = 145 Cp ~ 0.315 — 0.0225 le In a similar manner the following approximate for- mula for the thrust deduction for single-screw ships with a conventional stern can be applied: 001979 LAB ~ BCp,)+ 1.0585 €y5 + 0.00524 — 0.1418 D? (BT) + 0.0015 C seen ‘The coefficient cy is defined as: ey = BIL when L/B > 5.2 0.134615385) when L/B < 5.2 25 — 0.003328402/(B/L 10 The relative-rotative efficiency can be predictedwell by the original formula: ng = 0.9922 — 0.05908 Ap/Ay + +0.07424(Cp ~ 0.0225 feb) Because the formulae above apply to ships with a conventional stern an attempt has been made to in- dicate a tentative formulation for the propulsion fac- tors of single-screw ships with an open stern as applied sometimes on slender, fast sailing ships: 3 Cy + 10CyCy — 0.1 £20.10 and ng = 0.98 ‘These values are based on only a very limited num- ber of model data, The influence of the fullness and the viscous resistance coefficient has been expressed in a similar way as in the original prediction formulae for twin-screw ships. These original formulae for twin- serew ships are: w= 0.3095 C, + 10C,Cy - 0.23 DVET 120.325 Cy — 0.1885 DVBF ‘ig = 0.9737 + O.111(Cp — 0.0225 leb) + — 0.06325 P/D 4, Estimation of propeller efficiency For the prediction of the required propulsive power the efficiency of the propeller in open-water condition hhas to be determined. It has appeared that the charac- teristics of most propellers can be approximated well by using the results of tests with systematic propeller seties. In [2] a polynomial representation is given of the thrust and torque coefficients of the Beseries propellers. These polynomials are valid, however, for a Reynolds number of 2.10 and need to be corrected for the specific Reynolds number and the roughness of the actual propeller. The presented statistical pre diction equations for the model-ship correlation al- lowance and the propulsion factors are based on Reynolds and roughness corrections according to the ITTC-1978 method, [3]. According to this method the propeller thrust and torque coefficients are cor- rected according to: Peoas Kraig” K resis * Cp 93— SP — i > 95 08 K pastes ~ 8Cp 0.25 — Here AC, is the difference in drag coefficient of the profile section, P is the pitch of the propeller and ép7s is the chord length at a radius of 75 per cent and Zis the number of blades. AC y= (2+ A((/e)py5) {0.003605 — (1.89 + 1.62 log (¢.75/p))-*5) In this formula ¢/e is the thickness—chordlength ratio and k, is the propeller blade surface roughness. For this roughness the value of &, = 0.00003 m is used as a standard figure for new propellers. ‘The chord length and the thickness-chordlength ratio can be estimated using the following empirical for- mulae: €q75 72.073 Ap/Ag) DIZ and (eq 55* (0.0185 ~ 0.00125 2) Dleyrs The blade area ratio can be determined from es. Keller's formula: AplAg = K+ (13 +032) TMD*(p, + 08h ~P,)) In this formula Tis the propeller thrust, p, + pgh is the static pressure at the shaft centre line, p, is the vapour pressure and X is a constant to which the following figures apply K=0t00.1 for twinscrew ships K = 0.2 for single-screw ships For sea water of 15 degrees centigrade the value of Py ~By is 99047 Nim? The given prediction equations are consistent with a shafting efficiency of 0.99 ns = Pp IPs and reflect ideal trial conditions, implying: no wind, waves and swell, = deep water with a density of 1025 kg/m? and a temperature of 15 degrees centigrade and — a clean hull and propeller with a surface roughness according to modern standards. ‘The shaft power can now be determined from: - Let Py Pellagtons Te 5. Numerical example The performance characteristics of @ hypothetical single-screw ship are calculated for a speed of 25 knots. The calculations are made for the various resistance components and the propulsion factors, successively. ‘The main ship particulars are listed in the Table on the next page:Main ship characteristics length on waterline ZL 205.00m length between perpendiculars — Lp, 200.00 m breadth moulded BB 32,00m draught moulded on FP. Tp 10.00 m ‘draught moulded on AP. T, 10.00 m displacement volume moulded 37500 m? longitudinal centre of buoyancy 2.02% aft of HL, transverse bulb area Agp 200m" centre of bulb area above keel line ig 4.0m Imidship section coefficient Cy 0.980 waterplane area coefficient Cyp 0.750 ‘ransom area Ay 160m? wetted area appendages Sapp 0.0m? stern shape parameter Oe. propeller diameter D 8.00 m ‘number of propeller blades z 4 clearance propeller with keel line 0.20 m ship speed V 25.0 knots References 1, Holtrop, J. and Mennen, G.G.J.,‘A statistical power predic. tion method’, Intemational Shipbuilding Progress, Vol. 25, October 1978, 2. Oosterveld, M.W.C. and Oossanen, P. van, ‘Further computer analyzed data ofthe Wageningen B.screw series’, Internation. al Shipbuilding Progress, July 1975, 3. Proceedings 15th ITTC, The Hague, 1978 ‘The calculations with the statistical method re- sulted into the following coefficients and powering characteristic listed in the next Table i, 0.2868 Fyp = 5.433 G 0.5833 Rpg = 0.00KN Ly 1.385 m & 0.04 keb 0.75% yyy — Cy 0.000352 Cn 0.5102 Ry 221.98 kN 3 = 1.030 Rigat = 1793.26 KN +k, = 1.156 Py 23063 kW s 7381.45 m? Cy, = 0.001963 Cp 001390, c= 14.500 Rp 169.63 KN on 1.250 +k, = 150 Cy = 0.5477 Rapp = 8.83 KN w 0.2584 c= 0.1561 cy = 0.15610 ig 2.08 desrees = t 0.1747 “ 398 Tr 2172.75 KN 6 02119 AplAg = 0.7393 ¢ 0.7595 1 0.9931 fs 0.9592 ors = 3.065 m my 1274 theyy5 = 0.03524 eg = 1.69385 ac, = 0.000956 m, 0.17087 a 6513 From the B-series Ry $7.11 KN polynomials: Py 6261 Ky, = 0.18802 Pu 5084 n 1.6594 Hz Ry 049 kN Ko, = 0.033275 a, = 0.6461 P 32621 kW