AN NINH NNG LNG CA N V QUAN H NNG LNG

N - CHU PHI NHNG NM GN Y

PGS.TS Nguyn Cnh Hu
Trng HSP TP.HCM
NCS. V Minh Tp
i hc KHXH-NV TP.HCM
Tp ch Nghin cu n v chu , s 7 (20), thng 7/2014, tr.23-30.
Nng lng l mt trong nhng nhn t quyt nh hng u i vi s tn ti
v pht trin con ngi, ca mi quc gia v bt k nn vn minh no trn th gii.
i vi n , tc tng trng kinh t trong hn 2 thp nin qua, c bit l thp
nin u th k XXI, cng vi dn s ng v tng nhanh khin cho nhu cu nng
lng ca nc ny ngy cng thiu ht trm trng, nhu cu tiu th nng lng d
bo s tng gp i n nm 2035. Mc d Chnh ph n a ra chin lc v
an ninh nng lng quc gia nhng n nay vn cha c s chuyn bin mnh m.
Trong khi cuc chin nng lng gia cc cng quc nhng im nng v nng
lng trn th gii t ra nhng thch thc khng nh i vi n .
Chnh nhu cu bc thit , n y mnh thc hin chnh sch ngoi
giao nng lng trong thi gian qua. Chu Phi l mc tiu m n theo ui vi vai
tr l khu vc p ng ngun cung nng lng cho n .
Vy, thc trng an ninh nng lng ca n nh th no? Quan h hp tc,
khai thc nng lng gia n v chu Phi ra sao? Bi vit ny s tp trung lm r
nhng cu hi .
T kha: n , Chu Phi, chin lc, an ninh nng lng
INDIAS ENERGY SECURITY AND
INDIA - AFRICA ENERGY RELATIONS IN RECENT YEARS
Indias Energy security and India Africa energy relations in recent years
Energy is one of the major factors with the existence and development of man,
of country and of any civilization around the world. For India, the economic growth
rate over two decades, especially low in the first decade of XXI century, combined
with the high population and dramatically increasing make the energy demand of this
country more and more shortfall. In addition, energy demand expected to double by
2035. Although the Indian government has made strategy of national energy security
but till now there is still no strong changes. Meanwhile, the energy battle between the
great powers at the energy hot spots in the world pose significant challenges for India.
Because of this urgent demand, India has stepped up enforcement of energy
diplomacy in recent years and for the next decades. Africa is the goal pursued by India
as a regional energy supplies to meet energy demand of India.
1

So what is the reality status of energy security of India. How is the cooperative
relation of India and Africa? This essay will take a closer look in these issues.
Keyword: India, Africa, strategy, energy security ...
1. Thc trng an ninh nng lng ca n
Theo s liu thng k, nm 2011, n c tng s 1,210 t ngi, chim 17,5%
dn s th gii, ng th 2 th gii sau Trung Quc1. Tc tng trng kinh t
(GDP) trung bnh t nm 2000 2012 l 7,4%2, nn kinh t xp th 4 th gii3.
n l quc gia tiu th nng lng th t th gii sau Trung Quc, M v
Nga. Theo thng k, hin nay n phi da vo khong 80% nhu cu nhp khu
du th v 18% nhu cu kh t t nhin, chim 4,4% lng tiu th nng lng ton
cu4. Theo bo co chnh sch nng lng tch hp c cng b thng 8/2006, nu
n duy tr tc tng trng 8% th mc ph thuc nhp khu nng lng s
tng vi d kin l 90% i vi du, khong 50% kh t t nhin v gii hn trn
45% i vi than vo nm 20305.
Xut pht t thc trng v nhu cu nng lng ca n , c th thy:
i vi than (Coal), y c coi l ngun nng lng quan trng nht ca n
. Vi tr lng 221 t tn, trong 84 t tn c minh chng v d kin c
s dng cho 200 nm sau. n hin l nc sn xut than ln th ba v nm gi
7% tr lng than ton cu. Than chim khong 56% tng nhu cu s dng nng
lng thng mi c bn ca n , trong hn 90% nhu cu c p ng bi
than . Tuy nhin, gn 70% than ca n km cht lng, hm lng tro cao,
ln n 45%6, ng thi thiu cng ngh lm sch thch hp t ra thch thc ln
v mi trng. Do , m bo an ninh nng lng, cc nh my nhit in, ngnh
cng nghip thp phi tm cch nhp khu ln than cht lng t bn ngoi nh
Australia, Indonesia, Nam Phi
i vi du (Oil), hin ti du ni a ch p ng 36% nhu cu, trong khi
tng nhu cu sn phm du m phi p ng thng qua nhp khu l 70%, phn ln l
t Trung ng. Theo nh gi, tr lng du ca n khong 5,6 t thng, ng
th 2 chu sau Trung Quc v d bo nhu cu s dng du ca n s tng ln
91,6% vo nm 20207. n thc thi chnh sch ngoi giao nng lng khai thc
ngun ti nguyn ny t 25 quc gia (2004-2005) ln 50 quc gia nh hin nay.
i vi kh t nhin (Natural gas), theo tnh ton, kh thin nhin chim khong
8% mc s dng nng lng c bn ca n , mc tiu th thp nh vy l do
lng kh sn c ca n b hn ch v lng kh ny ch chim 0,5% so vi tng
tr lng c pht hin trn th gii. Theo d bo n 2015, nhu cu kh t nhin
ca n s tng gp i (230-320 triu m3/ngy), n phi sn xut theo d kin
l 254 m3/ngy, trong khi 58 triu m3 s c nhp khu di hnh thc kh t t
nhin ha lng (LNG). Hin nay, n ch sn xut c 132 m3/ngy t trong nc
v cn li phi nhp t bn ngoi8. Cc i tc ch yu m n nhp khu kh l t
Trung ng, Trung v cc nc lng ging (Bangladesh, Myanmar).
2

i vi nng lng ht nhn (Nuclear energy), hin ti mc s dng ca n

t 2,29% (2,720 MW) trn tng nng sut. n l nc tin phong v lnh vc ny
v ngy cng ng vai tr quan trng trong vic p ng nhu cu s dng nng lng
trong tng lai. D bo, n s ph thuc vo nhp khu uranium. Vic tm ngun
cung ng uranium l cn thit i vi nc ny nhm p ng mc tiu in ht nhn
s t mc sn lng tch ly khong 20.000 MW in vo nm 2020 (Theo tm nhn
nm 2020 ca B Nng lng Nguyn t (DAE)9.
i vi nng lng ti to (Renewable Energy)10, n hin ti c nhiu li
th pht trin ngun nng lng ny nh nng lng gi, sinh khi, mt tri, thy
triu, thy in n l mt trong nhng nc to nng lng gi hng u th
gii (cng vi M, c, Trung Quc, an Mch v Ty Ban Nha). Tuy nhin, do hn
ch v chi ph, tnh cnh tranh v mi trng nn phn no gy tr ngi ln trong vic
khai thc cc ngun ti nguyn ny.
Nh vy, vn an ninh nng lng l mt yu cu bc thit v sng cn i
vi n trong hin ti v tng lai. n a ra cc k hoch 5 nm v tch
cc trin khai thc hin y tham vng, th nhng n nay vn cn nhiu bt cp i
vi vn m bo an ninh nng lng. Trong khi nn kinh t ca n tng
trng trung bnh trn 7% mi nm trong nhng nm qua, sn xut nng lng
qun l tng trng hng nm ch c 5% . Vi mc tiu th bnh qun u ngi thp
490 kg du so vi trung bnh ton cu 1780 kg/nm, v d bo nhu cu gia tng v
nng lng ca n l mt trong nhng quc gia cao nht th gii. n chim
khong 2,4 % sn lng nng lng ca th gii, nhng tiu th khong 3,3% mi
nm, nhng lo ngi nghim trng rng khong cch gia cung v cu nng lng s
lm chm tng trng kinh t ca n trong tng lai.
Thc t an ninh nng lng ca n c c nhng thch thc ni b v bn
ngoi. n hn ch ngun ti nguyn nng lng trong nc; c s h tng hn
ch v khng ng tin cy; v chnh sch nng lng di hn tch hp ca n cn non
tr. Vn mi trng pht sinh t vic tng tiu th nng lng c gi nh t l
ng bo ng. Cc p buc chnh tr v quan liu tc nghn ang nh hng xu n
vic thc hin ng chnh sch nng lng tch hp. bn ngoi, vic m bo cung
cp nng lng lin tc vi gi c hp l t nc ngoi trong khi sn xut trong nc
thp, nhu cu li cao v ngy cng tng, l mt thch thc quan trng.
2. Hp tc nng lng n - chu Phi nhng nm gn y
Vai tr ca chu Phi trong chin lc nng lng ca n
Quan h n - chu Phi c truyn thng lu i, li gn gi v mt a l,
n c chung ngn ng vi nhiu nc ni ting Anh chu Phi, vn ha n ,
nht l in nh c a chung phn ln ti chu Phi y c xem l cht xc tc
thc y quan h gia hai bn trong th k XXI.
Theo d bo, chu Phi l khu vc c tr lng du m ng th 4 th gii vi
117,064 t thng, chim 10% tng tr lng du m th gii, cn tr lng kh t
3

xp th 3 th gii (sau Trung ng v Trung ) vi 494,078 Tcf11, chim 7,9% tr

lng kh t t nhin ca th gii; 5% tr lng than (trong Nam Phi chim
3,7%) v 38% tr lng uranium. Trong vng 10 15 nm ti, hu ht cc th trng
du m th gii s n t chu Phi12.
Vi nhng th mnh hin c ca chu Phi, n tch cc trin khai chnh
sch ngoi giao mnh m vi lc a en. Ring trong quan h hp tc nng lng,
y c coi l mi quan h mi m, c y mnh t na sau thp nin u th k
XXI. Cng nh nhiu cng quc khc l M, EU, Trung Quc, n xem chu
Phi nh mt khu vc y tim nng cn phi tip cn khai thc (nht l ti nguyn
nng lng v khong sn), thng qua cc mi quan h kinh t, thng mi pht
trin mi quan h mnh m v lu di vi chu Phi.
Trong tnh hnh nhu cu m bo ngun cung v cu nng lng n ngy
mt tng cao, trong khi khu vc Trung ng, Trung , cc nc lng ging vi n
(Pakistan, Bangladesh) ch yu v l do chnh tr v an ninh hn ch ngun
cung nng lng cho n , ng thi do tc ng ca cuc cnh tranh nng lng
gia cc cng quc ti cc im nng v nng lng thch thc an ninh nng
lng ca n . V vy chu Phi l khu vc c ngha c bit trong chnh sch i
ngoi v nng lng ca n trong th k XXI.
Hp tc nng lng n - chu Phi
Khi nn kinh t n pht trin, mc ph thuc nhp khu nng lng tng
nhanh v mt kha cnh quan trng trong chin lc an ninh nng lng ca n l
a dng ha ngun cung nng lng, c v s la chn ngun nguyn liu cng nh
ni xut x, Chu Phi l i tc quan trng ca n . V y l khu vc cung cp
ngun ti nguyn quan trng thay th cho s ph thuc ngy cng ln ca n hin
nay v trong tng lai. Ngoi du m, chu Phi cung cp s lng ln: than, kh thin
nhin, Urani (Xem bng 1):
Bng 1: Nhp khu nng lng ca n t chu Phi
Cc nc chu Phi (theo th t quc gia)
Nng lng
Than
- 4 quc gia theo th t: South Africa, Egypt,
Mozambique, Algeria.
- 19 quc gia theo th t: Angola, Egypt, Algeria, Libya,
Sudan, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Guinea, DRC, Gabon,
Guinea, Bissau, Cte dIvoire, Morocco, Liberia,
Tanzania, Tunisia, South Africa.
Kh thin nhin
- 5 quc gia theo th t: Egypt, Nigeria, Algeria, South
Africa, Guinea.
Uranium/
- 6 quc gia theo th t: Nambia, Malawi, South
Tha thun ht nhn Africa, Niger, Madagascar, Gabon.
Source: Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Department of
Commerce, Export Import Data Bank, 20092010.
Du

T bng 1 cho thy, li ch nng lng ca chu Phi i vi n l rt ln. Trc

nm 2008, thng mi nng lng ca n ch yu tp trung vo Ai Cp, Nigeria v Nam
Phi. Trong nm 2009 2010, Nam Phi l i tc cung cp than ng u chu Phi cho n
, vi tr gi 1,314.38 triu USD (chim 21% tng nhp khu than ca n ), tng hn
35%, Ai Cp l nc ng th hai vi 33.750.000 USD13. Cng trong thi gian ny, trong 50
quc gia m n nhp khu du th (so vi 35 nc nc nm 2006), th chu Phi c n
19 nc, chim khong hn 20% tng lng nhp khu du ca n (so vi 17,9 % nm
2006-07) (Xem bng 2).

Bng 2: Nhp khu du th ca n g chu Phi (Triu USD)

2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
8,441.75
11,788.84 12,968.82 15,967.73
Nhp khu du th t chu Phi
47,018.75 64,052.50 77,310.75 77,506.56
Tng lng nhp khu du th
17.9%
18.4%
16.77%
20.6%
T l %
Source: Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Department of
Commerce, Export Import Data Bank, 20092010.

Trong bng 2 cng cho thy, nhp khu du ca n t chu Phi tng nhanh
v u n. Ngoi ra, chu Phi ang tr thnh nh cung cp quan trng kh t t
nhin ha lng (LNG) cho n , chim 11,9% tng nhp khu kh ca n , ng
u l Ai Cp v Nigeria14. V hp tc khai thc in ht nhn, trong 6 i tc nm
2009-10, th Nambia l i tc quan trng nht ca n . Nm 2009 hai bn k Hip
nh hp tc v s dng ha bnh v nng lng ht nhn, nc ny cng cung cp
uranium, ng v kim cng chi n . Ngoi ra, cc cng ty t nhn n cng
thm d v khai thc uranium Niger, Madagascar, cc nc Nam Phi, Gabon v
Malawi l nhng nc cung cp s lng ln uranium cho n 15. Mc d chu Phi
ng vai tr quan trng trong chin lc nng lng ca n , nhng Ty vn l
khu vc cung cp chnh, khu vc ny chim 70 tng nhp khu du ca n v hn
80% nhp khu kh t t nhin16 (ch yu l Qatar, Saudi Arabia v United Arab
Emirates).
Tnh n nm 2010, n k cc tha thun khai thc du m vi
Nigeria,Angola v nhiu nc chu Phi khc bao gm: Sudan, Libya, Ai Cp v
Gabon, Burkina Faso, Guinea-Bissau, Senegal y mnh u t vo lnh vc
khai thc kh t nhin v du m. Cc cng ty du m ca n rt quan tm cc d
n nng lng ti Cte dIvoire, Ghana v Sad. n cn cam kt gip cc cng
ty chu Phi ci thin k nng bng vic chia s cng ngh v kinh nghim ch bin
kim loi, v th cc nc chu Phi khng n thun xut khu qung th.
Mt iu nhn thy, n khng phi l quc gia duy nht quan tm n nng
lng chu Phi. n nay, ngoi cc i tc truyn thng ca chu Phi nh M, EU
th c thm s hin din ca Trung Quc, Nht Bn, Nga to nn cuc cnh tranh
ti nguyn ti chu lc. Nigeria cung cp gn 10% nhp khu du cho n , nhng
gn 30% nhp khu sang M, hay nh DRC xut khu gn 70% nng lng sang M,
5

trong khi n l 27%, i tc nng lng hng u ca Angola l Trung Quc

(chim 40% tng nhp khu du), trong khi n ch chim 9%17. Nh vy, so vi
cc i tc khc (M, Trung Quc, EU), n vn cn hn ch, v iu ny tc
ng khng nh n n lc mang tnh chin lc ca n khi quan h vi chu
Phi.
Tht vy, tng cng s hin din ca n chu Phi, n buc phi
tnh ton n nhng im mnh v im yu ca mnh trong quan h vi chu Phi nh
la chn i tc, nhu cu ti chnh, la chn mt hng nng lng, thng qua i thoi
BRICS chu Phi Mt trong nhng n by n thm nhp vo th trng
nng lng chu Phi l lnh vc kinh t - thng mi. Theo s liu chnh thc, kim
ngch thng mi gia n v chu Phi tng t 5,5 t USD nm 2001 ln 45 t
USD nm 2010. Hai bn ra mc tiu nng gi tr bun bn song phng ln 70 t
USD vo nm 2015. u t ca n vo chu Phi tng 83,7% nm 2009. Chu Phi
chim 33% trong tng mc u t ra nc ngoi ca n 18. Nm 2011, n
ng v tr th 5 trong 20 nc hng u v u t FDI vo chu Phi19.
Theo khung hp tc n - chu Phi c a ra sau Hi ngh cp cao n chu Phi ln th 1 din ra ti Niu -li (n ) nm 2008, nng lng l 1 trong 7
lnh vc m c hai bn cam kt hp tc v c khng nh li ti Hi ngh cp cao
n - chu Phi ln th 2 ti Addis-Abeba (Ethiopia) vo nm 2011. Ton b nhng
vn kin c k kt gia n v chu Phi trong thi gian qua trn cc lnh vc
nhm mc ch chen chn vo chu Phi, n cng c quyn mua t v ti
nguyn ca lc a en.
3. Thay li kt lun
S pht trin ca n trong my thp nin qua v trin vng trong thi gian
ti , ang v s t ra thch thc i vi nc ny trn lnh vc an ninh nng lng.
Tnh hnh khai thc v s dng nng lng ti n khng p ng nhu cu hin ti
v dn n s thiu cn bng gia tng trng kinh t v pht trin x hi. S tri dy
ca nn kinh t n a t nc ny ngy cng ph thuc hn vo ngun nng
lng t bn ngoi. V vy, trong hn 1 thp nin qua, n n lc thc hin
chin lc ngoi giao nng lng nhiu cp , tng nc khc nhau c mt ch
ng trong th trng nng lng th gii. Chu Phi l khu vc y tim nng m n
hng ti.
Mt d mi quan h n - chu Phi khng phi l mi, nhng mi quan h
nng lng gia hai bn c cho l tng i mi v vn ang pht trin. Mi quan
tm ca n i vi cc ngun nng lng ca chu Phi chng t mt s ph thuc
ngy cng tng v nhp khu nng lng ca n , n mun a dng ha ngun
cung m bo an ninh nng lng, mt phn do s gia tng nhu cu nng lng v
thiu ngun lc trong nc p ng nhu cu . Bn cht ca mi quan h nng
lng ca n vi cc quc gia chu Phi c m rng ngy cng m rng theo
chiu su. Tt nhin mi quan h c t trong bi cnh nh nhu cu v cc mi
6

quan h vi cc nc sn xut nng lng quan trng ca n ; s tham gia ca n

trong cc lnh vc khc chu Phi (thng mi, gi gn ha bnh, gio dc); vai
tr ca cc cng quc tiu dng nng lng quan trng ca chu Phi (M, Trung
Quc, OECD) v s cn thit cho s pht trin nng lng bn vng.
Trong bi cnh ph thuc ngy cng ln vo nng lng ca n v cc
cng quc trn th gii nh M, Trung Quc, EU, Nga... ro tit v khng ngng
tranh ginh li ch ti chu Phi, buc n phi hoch nh v thc thi chin lc
tip cn chu lc ny khng b ln t t pha cc nc thm nhp nh hng rt
su ti khu vc ny. y tht s l mt thch thc khng nh m n phi vt
qua.
Xem ch thch:
1
Ng Xun Bnh (Ch bin, 2013), Nhng vn kinh t - chnh tr c bn ca n thp
nin u th k XXI v d bo xu hng n nm 2020, Nxb T in Bch khoa, H Ni,
tr.32.
2
Ngun: indiabudget.nic.vn.
3
Trong nm 2010, n l nn kinh t ln th t th gii vi tr gi 3,92 nghn t USD so
vi mc 9,98 nghn t USD ca Trung Quc v M l 14,12 nghn t USD,
http://vietnamnet.vn/vn/chinh-tri/66309/kinh-te-an-do-se-vuot-tq-nam-2050-.html.
4
Narendra Modi, Renewable is the way forward for Indias energy security:
http://www.livemint.com/Politics/7EkcrE6zgNmZJSlta0exlK/Renewable-is-the-way-forward-for-Indiasenergy-security-Na.html
5
Government of India, Planning Commission, Integrated Energy Policy, August 2006, p. 45,
http://www.planningcommission.nic.in/reports/genrep/intengpol.pdf.
6
Tarun Das, Colette Mathur & Frank-Jurgen Richter (2013), n - S tri dy ca mt
cng quc, Nxb T in Bch khoa, H Ni, tr.175, 181 v 183.
7
Bo co: Africa and Geopolitics of Indias Energy security India's energy security
strategy, in workshop on Africa and the Geopolitics of India's Energy Security to be held
in Johannesburg 5 October 2010 and Cape Town on 6 October 2010. See at:
http://www.saiia.org.za/presentations-speeches/africa-and-the-geopolitics-of-indias-energysecurity.
8
Shebonti Ray Dadwal (2011), India and Africa: Towards a Sustainable Energy Partnership,
SAIIA, Occasition paper No 75, February 2011, p.7.
9
Tarun Das. (2013), Sd, tr.163.
10
n l nc duy nht trn th gii c mt B chuyn gii quyt cc ngun nng lng
ti to v ti nguyn nng lng mi. n l nc ng th 5 trong vic sn xut nng
lng gi ton cu. Vo thng 7/2009, n cng b mt k hoch 19 t USD sn
xut 20 GW nng lng mt tri no nm 2020.
11
C quan thng tin v nng lng, EIA, 03/03/2009.
12
Dn theo: Shebonti Ray Dadwal (2011), p.9.
13
Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Department of Commerce, op.
cit.
14
Devika Sharma and Swati Ganeshan (2011), Before and Beyond Energy: Contextualising
the IndiaAfrica Partnership, The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA),
Occasional Paper No 77, February 2011, p.7.
7

15

Devika Sharma and Swati Ganeshan (2011),...., tr.7

Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Department of Commerce, op.
cit.
17
Dn theo: Devika Sharma and Swati Ganeshan (2011),...., tr.11.
18
D Lan Hng (2011), n gia tng nh hng chu Phi,
http://www.tapchicongsan.org.vn/Home/Binh-luan/2011/346/An-Do-gia-tang-anh-huong-ochau-Phi.aspx
19
Thy Dng
(2013), Bc pht trin mi quan trng ca BRICS,
http://www.tapchicongsan.org.vn/Home/The-gioi-van-de-su-kien/2013/20882/Buoc-phattrien-moi-quan-trong-cua-BRICS.aspx, ngy 5/4/2013.
16

Bi ng trn Tp ch Nghin cu n v chu , s 7/2014, tr.23-30