Estimation of Population Size and Density from Quadrat Samples

When the population that we are investigating is contained within an

area, we can take a random sample of areas, estimate the population density
and then estimate the population total. This looks much like approaches we
have taken previously, but with an extra assumption some of the calculations
are easier.
Suppose our total area is A and can be subdivided into N plots (quadrats)
each of size a, so that A = N a. Now if we take a random sample of n
plots, and mi are the number of elements from the population in plot i, then
N
P
M=
mi is the total size of the population and = M/A is the density of
i=1

the population. We will estimate and then use it to obtain an estimator

n
P
of M . If our sample mean of elements per plot is m = n1
mi , then we can
i=1

obtain the following estimators of , M , and a variance estimator using SRS

theory:
m c b
1 s2m
b
b
b
= , M = A, and V () = 2 .
a
a n
So far there is nothing new here. But if we assume that the elements
are distributed randomly (according to a Poisson distribution), then we can
obtain some simpler expressions. Recall that if mi Poisson(a), then
E(mi ) = a, V (mi ) = a, E(m) = a, V (m) = a/n, so then we can use the
following estimators:
b
b
b = m , Vb ()
b = 1 Vb (m) = , M
b
c = A,
b (M
c) = A2 ( ).

and
V
a
a2
an
an
See the examples from the lecture and text. Note that the size of a can
be chosen for convenience, then n can be adjusted to give a desired variance
bound.
Estimation of Population Size and Density from Stocked Quadrat
Samples
When using plot (quadrat) sampling for plants and animals, it can be
difficult to count an exact number but it may be much easier to just establish
1

whether or not the species of interest is present. A quadrat in which the

species of interest is present is said to be stocked. If y is the number of plots
in our sample of size n that are not stocked, then y/n is an estimator of
the probability of a plot not being stocked. If the Poisson assumption
from the last section (mi Poisson(a)) is reasonable, then the probability
of an unstocked plot is ea . Thus we can obtain the following estimators
of and M :
y
b
b = 1 ln( y ), and Vb ()
b = 1 (ea
= ea
1),
2
n
a
n
na
thus
2
b
b
b = A (ea
c = A,
c) = A2 Vb ()
M
and Vb (M
1).
2
na
This estimator will generally be less precise than the one based on count
data above, but since it is easier to determine presence or absence, a much
larger sample size can be achieved by the stocked quadrat method.