Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Nin kha 2012-2014

Kinh t v m
Ghi ch Bi ging 22

Khng hong n chu u

Kinh t v m
Ghi ch Bi ging 22

Khng hong n chu u

Hm nay chng ta s tho lun v khng hong n chu u. y l ch quan trng
trong kinh t hc v m v nhiu l do. Th nht, cc quc gia s dng ng euro lm
ng tin chnh thc chim t l ln trong tng cu th gii, c ngha l iu g xy ra
cc nc ny u c nh hng n tt c chng ta. T trng GDP ton cu ca khu vc
ng euro vn duy tr 20%, trong khi t trng ca M gim cn Trung Quc th tng
ln. Th hai, khng hong n chu u minh ho tc ng gy bt n tim tng ca cc
dng vn ln ln bng cn i ti sn. Mc d cuc khng hong thng c m t
trn bo ch nh l cu chuyn n gin do chnh ph i vay qu mc, cu chuyn thc
s phc tp hn. Dng vn vo gy bt cn i ti khon vng lai v y mc vay
n ca c khu vc nh nc ln t nhn ln cao. Cc khon n ln ny khin cc quc
gia tr nn nhy cm khi khng hong ton cu xy ra nm 2008.
Bt u bng mt s thng tin lch s. Khi Lin X sp , ng v Ty c nhanh
chng thng nht. iu ny c ngha l vic ti lp nc c hng mnh ngay ti trung
tm ca chu u, mt trin vng m khng phi quc gia no cng cho n, c th l
Php, ni m k c ca hai cuc chin tranh th gii trong th k 20 vn cn mi (tng
thng Php Franois Mitterrand tng c cu ni a ni ting rng ng yu nc c
n ni ch mun c hai nc c). c cng hiu rng h ch c th ti hp trong
ngn hn trong bi cnh phi tng cng c Lin minh chu u.
Hip c Maastricht c thng nht nm 1992 chuyn i Cng ng chu u
thnh Lin minh chu u vi nhnh hnh php (y ban chu u), nhnh lp php
(Quc hi chu u) v nhnh t php (Ta cng l chu u). Hip c ny cng to ra
Ngn hng trung ng chu u (ECB) v nh hng EU p dng ng tin duy
nht cho c khu vc. ng euro chnh thc p dng nm 2002 v hin l ng tin
chung ca 22 quc gia chu u. Do C c ng ting ring, ngn hng trung ng
thng nht nhng khng c b ti chnh v chnh sch ngn sch thng nht. L hng
ny tr thnh nhn t quan trng trong s c khng hong n C, nh sau:
Cc quc gia khu vc ng euro pht hnh tri phiu bng euro. T 2002 cho n
khng hong ti chnh ton cu. ECB xem nhng tri phiu ny l khng c ri ro. Cc

Jonathan Pincus

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Nin kha 2012-2014

Kinh t v m
Ghi ch Bi ging 22

Khng hong n chu u

ngn hng c php nm gi bt k lng tri phiu quc gia no m khng cn phi
trch vn ch s hu d phng. ECB i x vi tt c tri phiu t khu vc euro
bnh ng nh nhau theo chnh sch cho vay khn cp ca ECB (ECB discount
window), iu ny mang li cho cc ngn hng thng mi ng c s hu tri phiu
ca cc nc yu nht trong Eurozone, v nhng tri phiu ny tr li hi cao hn so
vi cc nc khc. H yn tm nm gi v cho rng ECB s xem loi tri phiu ny nh
tri phiu ca chnh ph c vy.
Trong thi gian khng hong ti chnh c hai iu xy ra. Th nht, Th tng c
Angela Merkel tuyn b rng c s khng chng lng cho tri phiu euro do cc
chnh ph pht hnh. Thc t, mi chnh ph phi t hu thun tri phiu ca mnh v
ti cp vn cho h thng ngn hng ca mnh. Nh rng ti sn duy nht trn bng cn
i ti sn ca chnh ph l uy tn v nim tin tuyt i: nim tin rng chnh ph s tn
trng ngha v ti chnh ca mnh, v chnh ph c kh nng lm iu v h c
quyn nh thu ngi dn. Thc cht, s cng quyt ca b Merkel v vic cc nc
C phi tn trng ngha v ca chnh mnh vi ng euro c ngha l khu vc euro
c mt h thng tin t hp nht da trn tri phiu chnh ph c hu thun bi cc
chnh ph mnh ln yu, ch khng phi c C nh mt th thng nht.
Th hai, Th tng mi c c ca Hy Lp George Papandreou cng b vo thng
11/2009 rng thm ht ngn sch ca Hy Lp l 12% GDP, hn gp i con s cng b
trc . Ngay lp tc nhng tri phiu tng c xem l phi ri ro gi phi gnh mt
khon ph ri ro ln, v cc ngn hng thng mi tng b hng t tin vo tri phiu
Hy Lp c th mt kh nng thanh ton. S hong lon ko theo sau nhanh chng lan
rng sang cc nc nng n khc. Ngn hng cc nc ph cn (Hy Lp, B o
Nha, Ireland v Ty Ban Nha) chu ri ro nhiu nht, ch yu v ngi gi tin rt tin
ra khi cc ngn hng ny v gi sang ngn hng c hoc chuyn i euro sang la, ng quan Thy S hoc bng Anh. Li sut tri phiu Anh v c gim thp mc
lch s, trong khi li sut tri phiu Hy Lp, B o Nha, Ireland v Ty Ban Nha cha
bao gi mc cao nh hin nay.
Nguyn nhn khng hong
Bo ch phc ha cuc khng hong khu vc euro nh l khng hong n cng, theo
cc chnh ph phung ph i vay mn qu nhiu v khng th tr n. Chc chn
y l nhn t quan trng Hy Lp, chnh ph nc ny duy tr thm ht ngn sch
ln mc 5 -6% GDP sau 2002. Nhiu bo co ca gii truyn thng m t tnh trng
nhn s cng knh ca khu vc cng v nn trn thu ph bin ca gii nh giu v
doanh nghip nc ny.

Jonathan Pincus

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Nin kha 2012-2014

Kinh t v m
Ghi ch Bi ging 22

Khng hong n chu u

Nhng phin bn ny ca cu chuyn ch ng vi Hy Lp. B o Nha ghi nhn thm

ht ngn sch khim tn hn ch khong 2 n 4% GDP. Ireland v Ty Ban Nha u
t thng d ngn sch trong hu ht cc nm t lc p dng ng euro n khi xy ra
khng hong. Do Ireland v TBN khng ri vo khng hong v chnh sch ngn sch
lng lo, nn phi c cch l gii khc cho khng hong n cng hai nc ny.
iu ny cng th hin r qua cc con s. Yu t chung cho c bn quc gia ph cn
euro khng phi l thm ht ngn sch ln, m l thm ht ti khon vng lai ln. Thm
ht ti khon vng lai tng mnh tt c cc nc ny, c bit sau 2005. Cc khon
thm ht ny l hu qu trc tip ca dng vn t nhn khng l chy vo trong cng
k. Cng vi vic p dng ng euro, cc nh u t t c v cc nc giu c hn
khc tin vo cc nc ph cn trong khu vc euro. Mt phn ca s hp dn
ny l li sut cao hn v khng cn ri ro t gi na. Vic u t vo khu vc bt ng
sn Ty Ban Nha s mang li li nhun cao hn m khng c ri ro ph gi.
Vn ca cc nc vng ph cn euro l h khng th ph gi ng tin kim sot
qui m thm ht ti khon vng lai ca mnh. Khi vn t chy vo, khu vc t nhn
m vo nhng ngha v ti chnh to ln. Nh rng vic i vay rng ca khu vc t
nhn theo nh ngha l thm ht ti khon vng lai tr cho cn cn ngn sch. Gii
hn ca qui trnh ny c xc nh bi tr lng, khng phi lu lng. Khi m th
gii vn cn sn lng cho cc nc ny vay tin (ni cch khc, khi m h c th duy tr
thm ht ti khon vng lai), th chnh ph v khu vc t nhn c th tip tc tch ly
n. Tuy nhin, t 2009 cc nc ny kinh qua hin tng vn t ngt chm dt
khi dng vn ngoi khng cn vi s lng nhiu na. Pht hin ra chnh ph Hy Lp
khng th tr n, cc nh u t t rt tin ra khi cc nc ph cn, cng gy kh
khn hn cho chnh ph v khu vc t nhn cc nc ny trong vic tr n.
Do , cc nc ph cn eurozone ging cc nc ang pht trin ch h khng th
pht hnh n bng chnh ng tin ca mnh (i khi cc nh kinh t gi y l cn
nguyn ti li nhng cch so snh ny khng phi l hay). Gi tr ca ng euro l qu
cao cc nc ny t c cn bng thng mi cho ti khon vng lai ca mnh. H
qu thm ht ti khon vng lai c ti tr bng cch bn tri phiu euro v chp
nhn n euro. Nhng mt khi cc nh u t khng cn sn lng mua ti sn cc
nc ph cn th h khng th tip tc ti tr thm ht ti khon vng lai ca mnh.
Vic tr n khu vc cng v t nhn s i hi cc nc ny t thng d ti khon
vng lai. Khi c hai khu vc nh nc v t nhn u c gng tr bt n, th ch cn
thng mi l ngun tng trng cu i vi cc nh sn xut trong nc. Nhng iu
ny khng th thc hin khi cc nc vn cn s dng ng euro, v gi tr cao ca

Jonathan Pincus

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Nin kha 2012-2014

Kinh t v m
Ghi ch Bi ging 22

Khng hong n chu u

ng tin ny khin h khng cnh tranh. Tn tin ngn sch cng khng phi l gii
php kh thi, v khi khng c tng trng xut khu, ct gim ngn sch s dn n s
ct gim cu ni a, lm gim s thu thu (v tng thm ht). Cch duy nht tr n
l phi tng tit kim t nhn thng qua gim mnh tiu dng t nhn v nh nc v
thanh l bt ti sn. Nhng qui m tit kim cn thit l qu ln, khng kh thi v mt
chnh tr. Cng chng c tri s tri qua thi k mc sng suy gim mnh khin cho tnh
chnh danh ca chnh ph b lung lay.
Gii php
Nu tht lng buc bng khng hiu qu, cc nc vng ph cn eurozone c th lm
g? Bc th nht l da vo phn tch trn phi nhn thy rng khng th n thun
li gy khng hong cho khu vc ph cn. C mi khon thm ht ti khon vng
lai th c thng d u . Cc nc thng d, quan trng nht l c, hng li
t thng d thng mi v u t vo cc nc ph cn. H phi bit rng c trch th
trch c h thng, ch khng ch cc nc thm ht, c ngha l h phi chu mt phn
gnh nng ti cu trc, xa n v gip ti cp vn cho cc ngn hng.
y l lun im m Keynes a ra sau Th Chin II, ng lp lun rng vic p t
gnh nng n khng l ln nc c s ch dn n bt n. Lun c mt gii hn m
mt con n bt k c th tr, v nhng khon bi thng chin tranh do phe ng minh
p t l vt khi gii hn ny. Thc t cui cng chng minh ng ng. Bi hc
c rt ra sau Th Chin II, khi phe ng minh chin thng vn quyt nh gp phn
ti thit nc c v Nht thay v i hi bi thng chin tranh. Keynes mun i xa
hn; p t thu ln cc nc lin tc c thng d ln cn cn thanh ton. Cc ch n
cng ng b trch c nh con n v s bt cn bng ny.
Nh rng mt trong nhng nguyn nhn khng hong l do c sn lng m bo tri
phiu mnh gi euro khng phi ca c. Mt cch loi b nguyn nhn gy bt n
ny l EU pht hnh tri phiu euro trn nn tng uy tn v nim tin ton vn ca chnh
quyn thng nht. Tri phiu Euro mi c th c thay th cho tri phiu ca cc nc
ph cn, c li sut thp (v ri ro thp) v v khng phi do cc quc gia yu km pht
hnh nn chng s cng c bng cn i ti sn ca cc ngn hng. iu ny i hi tp
trung ha quyn lc chnh tr nhiu hn Lin minh chu u. H thng khng cn duy
tr c mt ng tin vi nhiu chnh sch ngn sch: vic to ra tri phiu Euro
tng t tri phiu kho bc M i hi phi thnh lp B Ti chnh ca chu u vi
quyn lc kim sot chi tiu trong giai on tng trng nhanh v tng chi tiu trong
giai on tng trng chm hoc khng tng trng. Khng c ch bo no cho thy
c sn sng chp nhn gii php ny. Lin minh ngn hng l hnh thc tp trung

Jonathan Pincus

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Nin kha 2012-2014

Kinh t v m
Ghi ch Bi ging 22

Khng hong n chu u

quyn lc khc ang c bn tho, c ngha l vic gim st cc ngn hng khu vc
euro s do mt c quan iu tit duy nht trn khp chu u thc hin, c quyn
lc ng ca hoc ti c cu ngn hng tht bi. c th hin s d dt vi
tng lin minh ngn hng mc d cc cuc bn tho vn tip din.
Ngay c khi cung cp s tin hay tri phiu ny (v cng khng m bo l cam kt
c s) th vn cn mt h thng bt cn i c bn. Cc nc ph cn mc kt
gia mt ng tin b nh gi qu cao, v cc nc vng li, ch yu l c mc kt
bn trong mt ng tin b nh gi thp. Ngi c th cnh tranh theo t gi hin
ti trong khi ngi TBN v BN (c v Php) th khng. Nhim v u tin ca mt
chu u tp trung ha chnh tr hn s l kch thch tng trng kinh t v lm pht
gip cc nc ph cn tr bt n v ginh li mt phn nng lc cnh tranh.
Mt cch khc thot khi vn ny l cc nc vng li phi khai tr Hy Lp khi
ng euro. Hy Lp s quay li dng ng drachma vi gi tr thp hn, v s trng
thi tt hn t c thng d cho ti khon vng lai ca mnh. ng nhin, iu
ny c ngha l mc sng Hy Lp s gim mnh, v gnh nng iu chnh s dn ht
vo ngi dn Hy Lp. H cng cn c s h tr ng k t khu vc euro thc hin
chuyn i v ng drachma, v cc ngn hng s ph sn (tin gi tho chy
khi ngn hng Hy Lp) v h vn cn khon n euro to ln.
Vn l tch mt nc ra c cu ng euro khng. C l khng, th nht
nhng vn c cu chnh yu vn cn ngay c khi Hy Lp ra i, v BN, TBN v
Ireland, c l c khng cnh tranh trong phm vi ng euro. Th hai, mt khi Hy Lp
b buc ra i, th trng s chuyn s ch vo BN, Ireland v cui cng l TBN. Vn
khng d lo li mt khu vc euro nh hn nhng khng co cm vo nhm cc
nc vng li giu c.
Nh ti phit George Soros xut rng c ch khng phi Hy Lp nn ra i. iu
ny s lm yu ng euro v gim gnh nng n cho cc nc ph cn. N cng lm
cho cc ngnh cnh tranh hn trn th trng quc t. c s i mt vi s cnh
tranh mnh th trng trong nc t hng xut khu ca cc nc thnh vin
eurozone. Thng d ti khon vng lai ca c s bin mt.
iu ny tht s s gii quyt vn kinh t nhng kh p dng c v cc l do
chnh tr. Nh rng mt trong nhng ng c trng tm ca vic to ra ng euro l
lng s tri dy v mt kinh t ca c vo khun kh th ch chu u vng chc. Kh
c th hnh dung rng Php vn l i tc chnh ca c trong vic thit lp trt t
chu u thi hu chin, s ng c ri khi ng euro.

Jonathan Pincus