Professional Documents
Culture Documents
BIDV Treasury RS - Ban Tin Lai Suat Ty Gia Nam 2014
BIDV Treasury RS - Ban Tin Lai Suat Ty Gia Nam 2014
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Chu u
Anh
Nht
Ngun: Reuters
Biu 2: LSH NHTW cc nc ang pht trin (%)
18 %
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Trung Quc
Ngun: Reuters
Indonesia
Nga
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
4/2/2014
USD 6M
7/2/2014
GBP 6M
10/2/2014
EUR 6M
1/2/2015
JPY 6M
Ngun: Reuters
10
5
0
-5
US 10Y
IT 10Y
ID 10Y
GB 10Y
GER 10Y
CN 10Y
JP 10Y
IN 10Y
TH 10Y
Ngun: Reuters
T GI
USD duy tr tng gi mnh trn th trng quc t.
ng USD tng gi so vi hu ht cc ngoi t khc trong nm 2014. Ch
s USD tng mnh hn 12% t 80,2 im ln 90 im.
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
Ngun: Marketwatch
Biu 6: Tng trng kinh t th gii
M
GDP (%) 2,4
CPI(%)
0,8
T l tht 5,6
nghip
(%)
EU
Nht
0,8
-0,2
11,5
0,1
2,4
3,7
Ngun: tradingeconomics
Trung
Quc
7,4
2,3
4,1
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
TH TRNG TRONG NC
TH TRNG TIN T
Biu 7: Li sut iu hnh NHNN (%)
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
LS Ti cp vn
Trn ls H VN
LS ti chit khu
Ngun: SBV
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
-100000
100000
o hn TnPSBV
Bm qua OMO
Ht qua OMO
Ngun: Reuters
20
15
10
5
2/4/14
2/7/14
2/10/14
Ngun: SBV
0
2/1/14
200000
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
20
15
10
5
0
-5
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12
Tng trng tn dng 2013
Theo thng tin t Tng cc thng k, tng trng tn dng tnh n ht ngy
22/12/2014 t 12,62%, cao hn mc 12,52% ca nm 2013. Trong , tc
ca VN & USD kh u nhau, c tnh t xp x 13%. Tn dng ngoi
t sau 2 nm tng trng m phc hi tr li v tn dng VN cng c s
ci thin nht nh. Hot ng tn dng din ra c phn si ng hn v tp
trung ch yu trong giai on na cui nm.
Trong khi , huy ng vn duy tr tc tng trng kh cao mc d thp
hn nm 2013. Tnh n ht ngy 22/12 t khong 16% so vi cui nm
2013, trong VN t khong 18% v USD c tnh xoay quanh khong 46%.
Tit kim ngn hng vn l knh u t c u tin la chn trong bi
cnh s phc hi ca kinh t v m cha hon ton vng vng
Mc d li sut huy ng gim su, tuy nhin, knh gi tit kim vn duy tr
c sc hp dn & dng tin tip tc vo h thng ngn hng do i) lm
pht c kim sot tt, m bo mc li sut thc dng cho ngi gi tin;
ii) tm l an ton vn kh ph bin khi k vng vo s phc hi ca nn kinh
t trong ngn hn cha mnh m; iii) mc n nh ca cc knh u t
khc nh chng khon, bt ng sn,cha cao;
Hot ng ca doanh nghip cn gp nhiu kh khn cng vi thi
cung vn an ton ca cc TCTD l 2 nguyn nhn chnh khin tn dng
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
Th trng tin t VN LNH nm 2014 cha cho thy nhiu khc bit so vi
nm 2013. Thanh khon h thng c m bo, cung vn di do, cu ngun
tng nh. Giao dch din ra si ng, doanh s giao dch bnh qun phin t
20,7 nghn t ng, tng 22% so vi nm 2013. Mt bng li sut tip tc
gim nh so vi nm 2013 v l mc thp nht trong nhiu nm gn y. Li
sut k hn O/N 1 tun dao ng ph bin trong khong 2-4%/nm v trung
bnh khong 2,8%/nm KH O/N-1 tun, h 0,2% so vi nm trc.
0
2/1/14
2/4/14
O/N
2/7/14
1 tun
2/10/14
1 thng
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
Tng doanh s
ON-2 tun
Ngun: SBV
Biu 12: Din bin li sut USD LNH (%)
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2/1/14
2/7/14
1 tun
2/10/14
2 tun
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
Th trng TPCP
Th trng TPCP s cp
Trn s cp, tng khi lng TPCP pht hnh nm 2014 tip tc lp k lc
pht hnh mi, t 236 nghn t ng (cha k khong 10 nghn pht hnh
ring l cho Bo him x hi), vt 2% k hoch pht hnh iu chnh (232
nghn t ng) ca nm 2013 v bng 130% tng khi lng TPCP pht hnh
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
Thng 11
Thng 9
Thng 7
Thng 5
Thng 3
Thng 1
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
Ngun: HNX
Th trng TPCP th cp
1 nm
Ngun: HNX
2 nm
3 nm
5 nm
10 nm
15 nm
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
o B Ti chnh & KBNN iu chnh linh hot khi lng pht hnh, k
hn pht hnh v li sut pht hnh, gp phn iu tit din bin trn th
trng th cp.
5
4
3
TPCP 2 nm
3 nm
5 nm
Ngun: VBMA
Th trng TPDN
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
Ngun: HNX
Biu 18: C cu ngnh trong pht hnh TPDN
trong khong
3,5-4,5%/nm. Ti thi im t giaa Qu II/2014 n
cui nm, li sut
TPDN gim vi mc li sut pht hnh ch dao ng
quanh 10,5-11,5% i
vi k hn 5 nm, bin cc nm sau t 3-4%/nm.
4%/nm.
Trn th cp, khi lng giao dch th cp tt 3,2 nghn t
t trong nm 2014,
bnh qun thng t 270 t/ng- gim nh so vi
v mc 300 t /thng ca
nm 2013.
TH TRNG NGOI HI
Biu 19: Din bin t gi USD/VND nm 2014
21,700
21,600
21,500
21,400
21,300
21,200
21,100
21,000
20,900
20,800
Trn t gi
T gi giao dch
T gi t do
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
2012
2013
-5
-10
-15
ODA
CCTM
BOP
2014
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
-20
2011
2012
2013
2014
hng tch cc, vi s gia tng ca cc nhm hng cng nghip ch bin
ch to v gim i ca nhm hng nng nghip, nguyn liu th, s ch.
XK
NK
CCTM
Ngun: TCTK
chim 99,6% tng kim ngch xut khu nhm hng ny ca c nc;
hng dt, may chim 59,4%; giy dp chim 77%; my mc, thit b,
12
10
chim 98,8%.
o
V nhp khu: Nhp khu nm 2014 t khong 148 t USD, tng 12,1%
tng v nhm hng nguyn nhin, vt liu) chim t trng ln, trong khi
2011
2012
2013
nhm hng vt phm tiu dng ch chim t trng nh, cha n 10%.
2014
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
25
20
15
10
0
2011
2012
Vn FDI ng k
2013
2014
hiu qu, c bit trong lnh vc xut khu. Kim ngch xut khu ca
Ngun: TCTK
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
Ngun: MPI
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
4
3
2
1
0
1/1/14
1/4/14
1/7/14
1/10/14
Trn th trng 2 din bin cng kh tng ng. Mc d chnh lch li sut
kh hp, ch quanh khong 2,5%/nm KH O/N 1 tun, nhng phn ln cc
NHTM u ch ng duy tr trng thi ngoi t m. Trong phn ln ln thi
gian, trng thi ton h thng c tnh xoay quanh khong -1 t USD.
Tm l th trng nhn chung kh n nh, nim tin vo gi tr ng ni t
v chnh sch iu hnh c duy tr. Tuy nhin, mt s thi im, tm l
th trng c s bin ng mnh dn n k vng t gi tng kh ln, to ra
sc p ln t gi, nh thi im thng 5-6 vi s kin Bin ng, hay thi
im 3 thng cui nm.
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
Th gii
M
EU
Nht
Trung Quc
2015
3.5
3.6
1.2
0.6
6.8
2016
3.7
3.3
1.4
0.8
6.3
Ngun: IMF
Bng 2: D bo li sut iu hnh NHTW cc nc (%)
M
EU
Nht
2015
1
0.05
0.1
2016
2
0.25
0.1
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP
Ngun: Bloomberg
12/2015
0.96
0.07
0.14
1.09
Chnh sch tin t din bin tri chiu trn th gii, tuy nhin xu hng ch
o vn l ni lng khi trin vng kinh t ton cu 2015 c d bo khng
thc s lc quan v cc nc cn duy tr chnh sch ni lng kch thch
tng trng. Ngay trong nhng ngy u nm 2015, ng lot cc NHTW ln
trn th gii c ng thi ct gim li sut iu hnh nh Thy S, Canada,
an Mch, Bn cnh , ECB mc d vn gi nguyn mc li sut hin ti
nhng s chnh thc m rng mnh m gi ni lng nh lng vi gi tr 60
t EUR/thng. Xu hng ny nhiu kh nng s sm lan rng ra cc khu vc
khc trong iu kin lm pht d bo mc thp do gi du th gii gim su.
Trong khi , Cc d tr lin bang M nhiu kh nng s iu chnh tng li
sut c bn trong nm 2015 khi nn kinh t nc ny c nhng bc tin
vng chc trong 2 nm gn y, v c d bo duy tr l ng lc tng
trng ca kinh t ton cu. NHTW Anh cng c th s cn nhc vic tng
li sut trong nm 2015 sau khi nn kinh t nc ny cng cho thy nhng
chuyn bin kh r nt trong nm 2014.
Vi din bin tri chiu ca chnh sch tin t ca cc NHTW ln, xu hng
li sut mt s ng tin chnh trn th gii cng c nhng din bin ngc
chiu: tng i vi li sut USD v GBP, gim i vi EUR v JPY.
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
12/2015
2.79
1.05
2.07
0.49
3.58
7.54
7.72
4.23
M
c
Nht
Trung Quc
n
Indonesia
Malaysia
Ngun: Bloomberg
T GI
Bng 5: D bo cc cp t gi 2015
12/2014
12/2015 (F)
USD/IDR
12658
12600
USD/INR
63.35
63
USD/MYR
3.56
3.57
USD/THB
32.86
33.7
USD/CNY
6.21
6.22
USD/JPY
118
128
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
EUR/USD
1.2
1.09
GBP/USD
1.56
1.48
Ngun: HSBC
TH TRNG TRONG NC
TH TRNG TIN T
Ni dung Ch th 01/CT-NHNN ngy 27/1/2015
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
25
20
15
10
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(E)
Ngun: TCTK
ca cc doanh nghip vn
cn gp nhiu kh khn trong bi cnh s
phc hi ca kinh t ton cu
cha vng vng; iv) Xu hng ni lng
ng tin
ti t din ra mnh m t nhiu
NHTW trn th gii ngay trong thng u
u tin ca
c nm 2015;
Mc d vy, mt bng li sut s c iu chnh thn trng do i) Mc
nhy cm ca tn dng so vi li sutt trong giai on
o kh khn ca nn
kinh t l kh thp; ii) chnh lch li sutt USD, VN thu hp
h thm c th
gy kh khn cho vic chng la ha, to ra nhng bin ng kh kim
sot i vi t gi; c bit trong bi cnh
nh Fed c kh
kh nng s sm tng
li sut c bn USD trong nm 2015; iii)) c quan qun l thn trng vi
ri ro o chiu ca lm pht khi ch s ny ang ph
ph thuc ln vo din
bin gi du trn th trng quc t;
Tip tc trin khai cc gii php tho g
g kh khn cho doanh nghip,
gp phn thc y tng trng kinh t:
o M rng m hnh cho vay th im
m i
vi cc lnh vc u tin, c
nhiu tim nng pht trin (nng nghip,
p, thy
th sn,);
o Nhn rng chng trnh kt nii ngn hng doanh nghip;
c bit ch trng cc gii php ti cu
u trc cc TCTD
hon thnh cc
mc tiu theo ng l trnh ra tii quyt
quy nh s 254/Q-Ttg ngy
1/3/2012 ph duyt n c cu li h th
ng TCTD giai on 2011-2015:
o Thng t 36/2014/TT-NHNN quy nh
nh cc gii hn, t l bo m an
ton trong hot ng ca TCTD, bt u
u c hiu lc t thng 02/2015;
Thun li
Thch
thc
Th trng 1
Chng ti cha k vng s thay i ln
n trong cn i
huy ng cho
vay ca h thng
ng ngn hng. Tng trng
tr
huy ng duy tr cao hn
tng trng tn dng, tuy nhin, mcc chnh lch
l
s gim xung.
Mt bng li sut nhn chung s bm st nh
hng iu hnh ca
NHNN, theo xu hng i ngang hoc gim
m nh
nh i vi li sut VN cng
nh li sut USD.
Huy ng vn ca h thng NH nhiu
u kh
kh nng s duy tr tc tng
trng cao, t khong 14-15%. Tit kim
m tip
ti tc l knh u t c u
tin la chn khi so snh v li nhun
n v ri
r ro ca cc knh u t khc
nh chng khon & bt ng sn hay vng & ngoi
ngo t.
So vi 2014 th tc tng trng huy ng
Tit kim VN
Chng khon
Bt ng sn
Sn xut kinh doanh
Vng
Ngoi t
Cc yu t ng ch ca nm 2015
Thng t 36
Trin vng TD - H
o
o
CS tin t Fed
o
Th trng 2
Din bin trn th trng 2 s c kh nhiu
nhi im tng ng so vi 2
nm gn y. Thanh khon h thng
ng ngn hng c m bo tt,
khng cng thng. Mc d vy, v li sut
su th gia VN & USD c th
s xut hin nhng din bin ngcc chiu.
chi
Trong khi li sut VN n
nh mc thp,
p, tng ng nm 2014 th
th li sut USD s c xu
hng tng nh so vii nm 2014 cng vi
v mt bng li sut quc t.
Chng ti c bit lu 2 yu t c kh
kh nng tc ng mnh n th
trng
ng l i) Thng t 36 v ii) Chnh sch i
iu hnh tin t ca Fed
bn cnh yu t quen thuc l tng trng
ng tn dng
d
huy ng.
Th trng VN LNH: Thanh khon th trng VN LNH c d bo
duy tr n nh, tuy nhin s c s thay i
theo tng thi im. Thanh
khon cng thng vo u nm, sau dn n nh tr li, trc khi nng
ln v cui nm. Li sut dao ng
ng trong khong
kho
2-5%/nm KH O/N 1
tun. Ngng chn trn s vn l li sut OMO 5%.
Cc yu t tc ng tip tc h tr cho s
n nh ca th trng:
NHNN pht huy vai tr iu
u hnh cung tin
ti linh hot, bm/ht vn nhp
nhng m bo thanh khon cho h thng
ng ngn hng;
NHNN nhiu kh nng s tip tcc mua vo ngoi
ngo t khi th trng ngoi
hi d bo duy tr n nh v mtt trong nhng
nh
mc tiu iu hnh ca
NHNN l tip tc ci thin d tr ngoi h
i quc gia. Theo , tng lng
tin c bn trong nn kinh t tip tc tng ln;
Ngun cung trn th trng duy tr dii do & nhu cu nhn ngun khng
o
o
o
o
o
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
35000
30000
30000
25000
25000
20000
20000
15000
15000
10000
10000
5000
5000
0
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12
Tn phiu CP
TPCP
TPCPBL
Tng
Ngun: HNX
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
250
200
150
100
50
0
2011
2012
Thm ht NSNN
2013
Vay trong nc
2014(E)
2015(E)
Vay nc ngoi
Ngun: B Ti chnh
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
TH TRNG NGOI HI
2012
2013
2014
2015 (F)
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
38.60%
Ngun: TCTK
Cng nghip nh
Nng lm sn
Thy sn
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
Nguyn nhin vt
liu
Vt phm tiu dng
53.60%
Ngun: TCTK
Biu 32: Xut nhp khu khi FDI
150
100
50
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
-50
-100
XK khi NN
NK khi NN
Xut/nhp siu c nc
Ngun: TCTK
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
2015
0
- Xut khu
168000
- Nhp khu
168000
Kiu hi (E)
13300
13600
FII
300
6000
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn
Mi thc mc v trao i thng tin, Qu khch hng xin vui lng gi theo s in thoi (04) 22206903 hoc gi th v a ch email nghiencuu.kdv@bidv.com.vn