CHASING THE MDGs THE INDIAN SCENARIO

1.
Introduction
1.1
The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) set up by the United
Nations were adopted by 189 countries in the UN Millennium Summit held in
September, 2000. Broadly, the objectives of the goals are to adopt new
measures in the fight against poverty, hunger, illiteracy, gender inequality,
diseases and environmental degradation. The challenges for the country in
achieving the goals have been translated into time bound targets. The goals
and the targets are global as well as country specific. There are in all 8
MDGs as under:(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
(vi)
(vii)
(viii)

Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Achieve universal primary education
Promote gender inequality and empower women
To reduce child mortality
Improve maternal health
Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
Ensure environmental sustainability
Develop a global partnership for development

1.2
Each of the goals has one or more targets to be achieved by the end of
2015. There are in all 18 such targets. In the run up, to meet the targets, the
progress of the countries are to be measured quantitatively with the help of a
number of quantitative indicators. There are 48 such indicators listed by the
UN and standard International definitions for these indicators have also been
enunciated.
1.3
There is no compulsion for any country to work towards meeting the
MDG targets. However, the MDGs have become a framework for judging the
progress of different nations. Failure to achieve MDG targets will reflect
poorly on a nations capability and will also bring in international pressure.
India has a very crucial position in the global scenario of MDG framework.
For instance, the first target of the first MDG i.e. halving the global poverty by
2015, cannot be achieved unless the worlds most populous countries, India
and China, halve the number of people living below the poverty line by that
year.

2.
Country Situation
2.1
Indias steady progress over the last one decade towards human
development goals is reflected in the improvement of the countrys HDI from
0.41 in 1975 to 0.57 in 1999. India also figured itself among the 10 fastest
growing economies in the world with an average growth rate of the GDP of
5.8% during the first decade of reforms (1992-2001). This favourable situation
led India to take certain important policy initiatives as under:(a)

India committed itself in fulfilling the mandates of various

international conventions/conferences;

(b)
(c)

(d)
(e)
(f)
(g)
(h)

A national policy plan and the action plan for the empowerment
of the women are adopted;
The 73rd and 74th Constitutional Amendments passed in 1992
became operative in strengthening political participation of
women and brought more than a million women into public life;
The 83rd Constitutional Amendment Bill recognising the right to
Primary Education as a Fundamental Right got passed;
The legislation on reservation of seats for women in Parliament
is in the process;
The National Employment Guarantee Act has been passed;
The Right to Information Act has come into effect; and
The directions for the new country programme emerged from
rigorous assessment of the outcomes of on-going programmes
and consultation with diverse actors and stakeholders.

2.2
The Government of India has launched various new countrywide
programmes for extending the benefits of the aforesaid policy initiatives and
demonstrated its commitment by significant enhancement of allocations for
these programmes in the recent budgets. The Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan
(Education for all), the National Rural Health Mission, the Expanded Midday
Meal Scheme and the Integrated Child Development Mission, Sampoorna
Grameen Rozgar Yojana are the main programmes devoted to achievement
of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
2.3
As a consequence of the favourable policy and institutional
environment in the country, India became well placed on track with regard to
achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Yet the
challenges for Human Development remain formidable. The point was amply
clear in what the Finance Minister spoke in his Budget Speech of 2004 as
below: The countries of the world, India included, have set for themselves the
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Our date with destiny is not
at the end of the millennium, but in the year 2015. Will we achieve
those goals? In the 11 years that remain, it is in our hand to shape our
destiny. Progress is not always on a linear path, nor is it inevitable.
2.4
In the 10th Five Year Plan (2002-2007), the Planning Commission has
outlined Indias human development goals and targets for the next five to ten
years. Most of these are related to and are more ambitious than the MDGs.
A brief list of these targets for the 10th Plan and beyond are as follows: Reduction of poverty ratio by 5percentage points by 2007 and
15 percentage points by 2012.
All children in school by 2003; all children to complete five years
of schooling by 2007.
Reduction in gender gaps in literacy and wage rates by at least
50% by 2007.
Increase in literacy rate to 75% within the 10th Plan period.

 Reduction of infant mortality rate to 45 per thousand live births

by 2007 and to 28 by 2012.
Reduction of maternal mortality rate to 2 per thousand live births
by 2007 and to 1 by 2012.
Reduction in the decadal rate of population growth between
2001 and 2011 to 16.2%.
Providing gainful and high quality employment at least to the
addition to the labour force over the 10th Plan period.
All villages to have sustained access to potable drinking water
within the 10th Plan Period.
Increase in forest and tree cover to 25% by 2007 and 33% by
2012;
Specific HIV/AIDS targets within the 10th Plan Period.
Specific malaria targets within the 10th Plan Period.

3.
Variants of Indicators
3.1
Of the 48 indicators for the 8 Goals, 35 were found relevant to India.
Some of the variants of the measures being followed by India in assessment
and/or, the indicators with conceptual disparity with international definitions
have been discussed in the following sections.
1.

The poverty rate according to the Government of India definition is

at variance with that according to international definition. India
unlike most countries has different poverty lines at sub-national
level. The poverty ratios are estimated for different states of the
country and have state specific poverty lines for rural and urban
areas.

2.

All-India implicit poverty line for the urban areas is nearly 40%
higher than that for rural areas. The state with the highest prices
has a poverty line that is 57% higher than that for the state with
lowest prices. These variations are mainly on account of price
differentials across states and for rural and urban areas.

3.

Applying a uniform poverty line for the country as a whole would

underestimate poverty level in urban areas and overestimate in
rural areas. Uniform international poverty line such as US$ 1 (PPP)
per day can distort the picture further.

4.

The poverty line indicator in the MDG for Prevalence of

underweight children is the percentage of children under five years
of age whose weight for age is less than minus two standard
deviations from the median for the international reference
population aged 0-59 months. In Indian context, data on this
indicator are not available. The National Family Health Survey
(NFHS) collected data on the under-weight children below 3 years
of age in 1998-99. In 1992-93 surveys, children between 0-47
months of age were considered and as such results of the two
surveys are not comparable.

5.

In estimating the proportion of people who suffer from hunger

(Target 2: MDG 1), the recommended indicator is proportion of
population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption. In
India, data are available for the first time from the District Level
Rapid Household Survey (DLHS) 2002-05, by which district level
estimates for hidden hunger or micronutrient deficiencies and
malnutrition are available. Repeat surveys of this nature would be
required to track direction of changes. However, other measures
such as incidence of malnourishment (e.g. anaemia) among women
and children as per NFHS 1998-99 are also being considered
indicative in absence of well-defined indicator for hunger. Using
the norm of 2425K Cal per CU for rural and 2100 K Cal per CU for
urban, proportion of households with sufficient food for members of
the household is also estimated state-wise.

6.

Net Enrolment Ratio (NER) in primary education is one prescribed

indicator (Target 3: MDG 2) defined as the ratio of the number of
children of official school age who are enrolled in primary school to
the total population of children of official school age. In India NER
is not calculated. Instead, Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) which is
defined as the number of pupils enrolled in a given level of
education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the
population in the normative age group for the same level of
education, is calculated for Class I-V and age 6-11 years from the
data collected by Ministry of HRD through an annual return from
schools and educational institutions. The limitation of this indicator
is that, in some cases, the figure is more than 100% due to
enrolment of children beyond the age group 6-11 years. Thus, it
may not be quite indicative of the situation.

7.

Another prescribed indicator for Target 3: MDG2 is Proportion of

pupils starting Grade 1 who reach Grade 5. It is also known as
survival rate to Grade 5, and is defined as the percentage of a
cohort of pupils enrolled in Grade 1 of the primary level of education
in a given school-year who are expected to reach Grade 5. This
indicator is measured in India alongside dropout rate as well so
that changes could be better explained.

8.

The third indicator for Target 3: MDG2 is literacy rate of 15-24 yearolds, or youth literacy rate that is defined as the percentage of the
population 15-24 years old who can both read and write with
understanding a short simple statement on everyday life. In India,
literacy rate of the youth age group is not calculated. Instead,
literacy rate for age group 7 years and above has been used from
Census data. However, adult literacy rate for 15 years and above
based on Census data are also available gender disaggregated and
state-wise.

9.

One prescribed indicator for Target 4: MDG3 is Ratio of literate

women to men 15-24 years old (literacy gender parity index) which
is the ratio of the female literacy rate to male literacy rate for the
age-group 15-24 years. The ratio of literate women to literate men
is available for the population in the age group of 7 years plus
instead of 15-24 years and the source is Census data and
calculated state-wise and at national level.

10.

Maternal Morality Rate (MMR), one of the indicators for maternal

health (Target 6: Goal 5) is the number of maternal deaths per
100,000 live births. Its estimate in India at state level is not very
robust as system of registering deaths for maternity causes is prone
to biases. Standard survey method for the estimate is yet to be in
place.

11.

Two of the indicators prescribed for combating spread of HIV/AIDS

(Target 7: MDG 6) are (i) HIV prevalence among pregnant women
aged 15-24 years and (ii) condom use percentage at high-risk age.
Data on these are collected through annual round of HIV sentinel
surveillance at identified sentinel sites (clinics) conducted during 12
weeks from 1st August to 31st October every year. The estimates
are too specific to high-risk zone, both at state-level and national
level.
A second survey known as Behavioural Sentinel
Surveillance Survey (BSS) is however, conducted once in three
years to monitor trends in risk behaviours
among general
population and high-risk groups. The findings of the two for highrisk groups differ as the second survey is conducted by an
independent organisation.

12.

One composite indicator for reversing incidence of malaria and

other diseases (Target 8: MDG6) is comprised of prevalence of
malaria i.e. the number of cases of malaria per 1,00,000 people and
deaths rate associated with malaria i.e. the number of deaths
caused by malaria per 1,00,000 population. In India data on
annual parasite incidence (annual number of malaria positive cases
per thousand population) and deaths due to malaria per 1,00,000
population are collected from 22,975 PHCs; 2,935 CHCs and
13,758 malaria clinics. However, limitation of these rates is that
they grossly underestimate the incidence in tribal, hilly, difficult and
inaccessible areas, which cover 20% of population but 80% of
malaria cases.

13.

Other composite indicators for Target 8: MDG 6 include Prevalence

and death rates associated with Tuberculosis and Proportion of
Tuberculosis cases detected and cured under directly observed
treatment short course (DOTS). In India these rates are calculated
on the basis of nation wide Annual Risk of TB Infection (ARTI)
survey conducted by National Tuberculosis Institute and
Tuberculosis Research Centre. However, death rate due to TB as

per notified cases is grossly underestimate and there is no

representative data available to estimate it correctly at present.
14.

One of the recommended indicator for reversing the loss of

environmental resources (Target 9: MDG7) is Energy use (Kg oil
equivalent) per $1 GDP (PPP), which is defined as the commercial
energy use measured in units of oil equivalent per $1 of GDP
converted from national currencies using PPP conversion factors.
In the Indian context, commercial energy use in Kg oil equivalent
per unit of GDP includes consumption figures for coal and lignite,
crude petroleum, natural gas (including feed stock) and electricity
(hydro and nuclear). As consumption data of coal and lignite are
not collected and compiled by any single agency, off-take of
indigenous coal and lignite and net import are taken as
consumption with the assumption that stock changes at both
producers and consumers end remain the same. Again gradewise distribution and dispatches data is not available and nor that of
the off-take. Therefore, average GCV in kilo cal per kg for dispatch
is taken as the average GCV of colliery consumption. Till now GCV
concept has not been adopted for Indian coal and lignite like other
coal producing countries or the world.

15.

Carbon dioxide emissions per capita

is another indicator for
environmental sustainability (Target 9: MDG 7), which is defined as
the total amount of carbon dioxide emitted by a country as a
consequence of human (production and consumption) activities,
divided by the population of the country. In the global CO2 emission
estimate of the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre of OAK
Ridge National Laboratory, USA, the calculated country estimates
of emissions include emission from consumption of solid, liquid and
gas fuels, cement production and gas flaring. However, Indias
national reporting to the UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change, which follows the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate
Change guidelines, is based on national emission inventories and
covers all sources of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions as
well as carbon sinks (such as forests).

16.

Proportion of Population using solid fuels which is the proportion of

the population that relies on biomass (wood, charcoal, crop
residues and dung) and coal as the primary source of domestic
energy for cooking and hearing, is another indicator for
environmental sustainability (Target 9: MDG 7). In the Indian
context, per thousand distributions of households reporting use of
solid fuels for cooking has been used. The data is captured through
household consumer expenditure surveys of NSSO. Here one of
the energy sources only is recorded. In case of more than one type
of energy use, the type most commonly used is recorded.

17.

Towards making available the benefits of new technologies,

especially information and communication (Target 18: MDG 8), the

indicators prescribed are (i) Telephone lines and cellular

subscribers per 100 population and (ii) Personal Computers in use
per 100 population/internet users per 100 population. In India in
addition to normal phones, community access has been provided
through Public Call Offices (PCOs), Village Public Telephones
(VPTs) and Rural Community Phones (RCPs). Hence there is no
estimate as per UN prescription. Cellular mobile services are
provided by private operators in a big way. There are Unified
Access Service Licences, having large share of private operators.
As a result the total number of telephones of all types together is
considered to calculate the overall tele-density.
4.
Progress to MDGs
4.1
Against this background, the First Country Report on MDGs brought
out by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation in December
2005 captured the Indian scenario in the
4.2

MDG framework for each of the eight goals as summarized below:(MDG.1) Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger: The proportion
of people below the poverty line is to be reduced from
nearly 37.5% in 1990 to about 18.75% by 2015. The
poverty head count ratio is 26.1% in 1999-2000 with
poverty gap ratio of 5.2% and share of poorest quintile in
national consumption being 10.1% for rural sector and
7.9% for urban sector and prevalence of under weight
children of the order of 47%.
(MDG.2) Achieve universal primary education: The primary
school enrolment rate is to be raised to 100% and the
dropouts assessed as 41.96% in 1991-92 is to be totally
wiped out by 2015.
The dropout rate in primary
education has been assessed as 34.9% in 2002-2003.
The gross enrolment ratio in primary education has
registered an increase of nearly 20 percentage points in
ten years from 1992-93 to 2002-03 for girls (93%) and
that for boys remains stationery near 100%. The literacy
rate (7 years and above) has increased from 52.2 % in
1991 to 64.84% in 2001.
(MDG.3) Promote gender equality and empower women:
Towards achieving parity in female-male ratio in
education, the proportion in primary education of 71:100
in 1990-91 improved to 78:100 in 2000-01. The increase
in secondary education during the same period was from
49:100 to 63:100.
(MDG.4) Reduce child mortality: The under five mortality rate
(U5MR) is to be reduced from 125 deaths per thousand
live births in 1988-92 to 41 in 2015. The U5MR has

decreased to 98 per thousand live births during 19982002. The infant morality rate (IMR) has also come down
from 80 per thousand live births in 1990 to 60 per
thousand in 2003.
(MDG.5) Improve maternal health: The maternal mortality rate
(MMR) is to be reduced from 437 deaths per 100,000 live
births in 1991 to 109 by 2015. The value of MMR in 1998
has been assessed as 407. Attendance of skilled health
personnel at the time of births has increased from 25.5%
in 1992-93 to 39.8% in 2002-03.
(MDG.6) Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases: India
has a low prevalence of HIV among pregnant women as
compared to other developing countries, yet the
prevalence rate has increased from 0.74 per thousand
pregnant women in 2002 to 0.86 in 2003.
The
prevalence and death rates associated with malaria are
consistently coming down. The death rate associated
with TB has come down from 56 deaths per 100,000
population in 1990 to 34 in 2003.
(MDG.7) Ensure environmental sustainability: The total forest
cover is 20.64% as per 2003 assessment and is tending
to increase. 19% of the total land area is under reserved
and protected forests to maintain the biological diversity.
The energy use has declined consistently from about 36
kg oil equivalent in 1991-92 to about 33 kg oil equivalent
in
2003-04 to reduce GDP worth Rs. 1000.
(MDG.8) Develop a global partnership for development: The
overall tele-density has increased from 0.67% in 1991 to
10.8% in November, 2005. Use of Personal Computers
(PCs) has increased from 5.4 million PCs in 2001 to 14.5
million in 2005. There are 5.6 million Internet subscribers
as on June, 2005.
5.
Sub-national Targets
5.1
The Indian scenario of development trends in the MDG framework is
vastly different from other developing countries, mainly due to the large size of
its area and population. The attainment of goals for India at the national level
is deeply associated with sub-national performance. It is to be appreciated
that the rate of change for the states may not be proportional or equivalent to
that being aimed at for the country as a whole? To illustrate this, we may
consider the case of Under Five Mortality Rate (U5MR), which as per MDG-4
has to be reduced from 125 deaths per thousand live births in 1988-92 to 41
by 2015, i.e. a reduction by two-thirds has been envisaged for the nation as a
whole. The question is: is it logical to apply the same reduction rate of twothirds uniformly to all States? Keralas U5MR in 1988-92 was about 26.1 per
thousand live births. By the 2/3rd rule, Keralas 2015 U5MR target should be

about 8 per thousand live births. On the other hand, UP having U5MR of 182
per thousand live births will have to aim at U5MR of 60-65 by 2015, which is
still higher than the national target. It is more logical to bring down the U5MR
of UP by more than 2/3rd rather than reducing that of Kerala to 8. The impact
of Kerala on the overall change for the country as a whole is hardly
perceptible, however, big it may be. The U5MR in Kerala is plateauing and a
further dip may need massive intervention. Plan intervention of the same
magnitude in bigger States like UP may cause bigger effect at the State level
as well as national level. Same is the case with Infant Mortality Rate (IMR).
That amounts to saying that there is a need to set targets for 2015 indicator
values for each of the States and the distance of those targets from the base
values of the indicators should be taken into consideration in deciding on the
magnitude of intervention required at state-level.