Школа успешного трейдера - 1 курс PDF

.
1.
..............................................................2
1.1. FOREX ...............................................................2

1.1.1. ...............................................2
1.1.2. FOREX, .........................................................10
1.1.3. .............................................11
1.1.4. FOREX..................................................................................................14
1.1.5. FOREX...........................................................................15
1.1.5. ......................................................................................20
1.2. .................................................22
1.2.1. ..........................................................................................22
1.2.2. ..........................................................27
1.2.3. ..................................................................................28
1.2.4. .......................................................................................31
2.
...............................36
2.1. ...........................................................36
2.2. , FOREX .......................37
2.3. .....................................................38
2.4. - . .....................................................40
2.5. , ,
..........................................................41
2.6. ..................................42
.......................................................................................42
2.5. ..............................................43
.................................................................................................44
.......................................................................................................44
- (DJI)...............................................................................................44
" " (S&P) .......................................................................45
- (NYSE Index)..........................................45
(AMEX) .................................................46
(NASDAQ) ..............................................................46
.....................................................................................................46
: ..................................................................................................47
.................................................................................................49
1
PDF created with pdfFactory Pro trial version www.pdffactory.com
.
:....................................................................................................49
(Gross Domestic Product GDP) ................................................49
(Treasure Statement) ............................................49
.......................................................50
3. ....................................................................................51
3.1. ....................................................................................................51
3.1.1. ....................................................................51
3.1.2. (): .......................................................................52
3.1.3. .................................................................................53
3.1.4. ..........................................................................................................53
3.1.5. . .........................................................55
3.2. ...............................................................56
3.2.1. ...........................................................................................56
3.2.2. M .....................................................................................61
.................................................................................................................63
..................................................................................................................63
(Price Oscillator - OSC) ..........................................................................63
4.
...........................................................................67
4.1. ....................................................68
4.2. ...............................................69
: .........................................................................................................69
1.
1.1.
FOREX
1.1.1.
.
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.
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,
.

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70- 20 ,
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2
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1930
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1920- . ,
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1947
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1949 3.1 .,
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. 1958 .
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1964
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1967
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1970
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1971

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1971
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1971
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1985
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1969
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1972
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2.25%.

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1973
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1978-79
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2.25%,
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1981
.
1986
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1990
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2.9500.
() ()
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1992
12 -
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1957 .
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1992
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7
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5%, .
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1993

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2.25% 6% 15%.
1995
1999 ,

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1996
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1997
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1998
11 , :
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1998
11 ,
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8
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1999

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(EMU).
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, 1 1999 (. 1);
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1 2001 .
1 2002
() .
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= 40,3399
= 1,95583
= 5,94573
= 6,55957
= 340,750
= 0,787564
= 1936,27
= 40,3399
= 2,20371
= 200,482
9
.
= 166,386
0.00 1 2002
12 EC,
.
1.1.2. FOREX,
, FOREX (Foreign Exchange,
FX), - () -,

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FOREX 70- .. ,
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FOREX ,
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FOREX -

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1 3
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FOREX,
(USD), (EUR), (JPY),
(CHF)
(GBR).
70%.
15% Forex,
.

FOREX :
1) ;
10
.
2) 100%- .
FOREX
( FOREX 1 3
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3) ,
FOREX,
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FOREX
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, REUTERS, DOW JONES, CQG,
BLOOMBERG, TENFORE ..
10.
1.1.3.
FOREX :

FOREX .
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- (US Federal Reserve FED).
- (Deutsche
Bundesbank BUBA) (Bank of England
Old Lady).
11
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FOREX
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Barclays Bank, Citibank, Chase Manhatten Bank, Deutsche Bank, Union Bank of
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( , Union Bank of Switzerland)
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1.1.4. FOREX
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http://www.rbc.ru/okv.html
http://www.micex.ru/online/ .
FOREX, ,
, (majors), -
.
(majors):
USD [buck (), greenback ( )]
EUR ,
GBP - STG (cable, )
CHF - (swissie)
JPY = YEN -
CAD
AUD (aussie )

14
1.1.5. FOREX
,
FOREX 24 .
,
(), - ,
, , , , --, , ,
- -. :
FOREX
, .
,
( ). GMT Greenwich Meridian Time. ( )

GMT , .
GMT
Wellington
+11
+12
Sidney
+9
+10
Tokyo1
+9
+9
Hong Kong1
+8
+8
Singapore
+7
+8
+3
+4
Frankfurt
+1
+2
Zurich
+1
+2
Paris
+1
+2
London
+1
New York
-5
-4
Chicago
-6
-5
Los-Angeles
-8
-7
1:
: ,
GMT 3 , .
FOREX
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FOREX -
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(MSK)
ASIA
EUROPA
AMERICA

03:00
11:00
04:00
12:00
04:00
12:00
09:00
17:00
09:00
17:00
09:00
17:00
10:00
18:00
16:00
24:00
04:00
12:00
05:00
13:00
04:00
12:00
09:00
17:00
09:00
17:00
09:00
17:00
10:00
18:00
16:00
24:00
18
PACIFIC
17:00
00:00
01:00
01:00
08:00
09:00
17:00
00:00
01:00
01:00
08:00
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FOREX 1 3
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1.1.5.
FOREX
.
,
GBP
EUR
YEN
USD
CHF
1
1
1-3; 15
1,. 1
11
.
21
29
1, .
3, 4, 5,
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8,
4,
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20
4
.
1
15, 23
.
3
10
.
3, 23
11,
25, 26
24-26
23, 31
25
25
www.forextrader.ru
. 2004 .
2004 FOREX
01.01.04
01.01.04
01.01.04
Australia
AUD
New Years Day
Canada
European Union
CAD
EUR
New Years Day

New Years Day
20
.
01.01.04
Japan
01.01.04
01.01.04
01.01.04
01.01.04
New Zealand
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States
NZD
CHF
GBP
USD
JPY
New Years Day
02.01.04
02.01.04
02.01.04
Japan
New Zealand
Switzerland
JPY
NZD
CHF
03.01.04
15.01.03
19.01.04
26.01.04
Japan
Japan
United States
Australia
JPY
JPY
USD
AUD
06.02.04
11.02.04
16.02.04
20.03.04
09.04.04
09.04.04
09.04.04
New Zealand
Japan
United States
Japan
Australia
Canada
European Union
NZD
JPY
USD
JPY
AUD
CAD
EUR
Waitangi (National Day)

National Foundation Day
Presidents Day
Spring Equinox Day
Good Friday
Good Friday
Good Friday
09.04.04
09.04.04
09.04.04
New Zealand
Switzerland
United Kingdom
NZD
CHF
GBP
Good Friday
Good Friday
Good Friday
12.04.04
12.04.04
12.04.04
12.04.04
Australia
Canada
European Union
New Zealand
AUD
CAD
EUR
NZD
Easter
Easter
Easter
Easter
12.04.04
12.04.04
26.04.04
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Australia
CHF
GBP
AUD
Easter Monday
Easter Monday
Anzac Day
26.04.04
29.04.04
03.05.04
03.05.03
04.05.04
05.05.04
20.05.04
New Zealand
Japan
Japan
United Kingdom
Japan
Japan
Switzerland
NZD
JPY
JPY
GBP
JPY
JPY
CHF
Anzac Day
Day of the Nature
Constitution Day
May Bank Holiday
Citizen's Day of Rest
Children's Day
Ascension Day
24.05.04
31.05.04
31.05.04
31.05.04
Canada
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States
CAD
CHF
GBP
USD
Victoria Day
Whit Monday
Spring Bank Holiday
Memorial Day
07.06.04
14.06.04
01.07.04
New Zealand
Australia
Canada
NZD
AUD
CAD
Queens Birthday
Queens Birthday
National Day
05.07.04
19.07.04
01.08.04
30.08.04
United States
Japan
Switzerland
United Kingdom
USD
JPY
CHF
GBP
Independence Day
Seas Day
National Day
Summer Bank Holiday
New
New
New
New
Years
Years
Years
Years
Day
Day
Day
Day
New Years Extra Day

New Years Extra Day
New Years Extra Day
New Years Extra
Coming of Age
Martin Luther King
National
Day
Day
Day
Day
Monday
Monday
Monday
Monday
21
.
06.09.04
Canada
CAD
Labour Day
01.09.04
20.09.04
23.09.04
06.10.03
United States
Japan
Japan
Australia
USD
JPY
JPY
AUD
Labour Day
Day of Senior Citizens
Autumn Equinox Day
Labour Day
11.10.04
11.10.04
11.10.04
Canada
Japan
United States
CAD
JPY
USD
Canadian Thanksgiving Day

Health-Sports Day
Columbus Day
03.11.04
11.11.04
11.11.04
23.11.04
Japan
Canada
United States
Japan
JPY
CAD
USD
JPY
23.12.04
25.11.04
27.12.04
27.12.04
27.12.04
27.12.04
28.12.04
Japan
United States
Australia
Canada
New Zealand
United Kingdom
Australia
JPY
USD
AUD
CAD
NZD
GBP
AUD
Birthday of the Emperor

Thanksgiving Day
Christmas
Christmas
Christmas
Christmas
Boxing Day
28.12.04
28.12.04
28.12.04
Canada
New Zealand
United Kingdom
CAD
NZD
GBP
Boxing Day
Boxing Day
Boxing Day
31.12.04
Japan
JPY
New Years Eve
National Culture
Remembrance
Veterans
Labour Thanksgiving
Day
Day
Day
Day
1.2.
1.2.1.
1.2.1.1.
- ( ),
( ).
(, USD/DEM)
, - . .
- (Bid) - ,
, - (Ask Offer) - ,
. ,
(spread). ,
.

- (Point, Pips). ( )
, .. .
0.0001, , ,
- 0.01. (Big
Figure) , , ,
: EUR 60/65, , , EUR/USD 1.2660/1.2665.
22
USD/CHF 1.6630/35 ,
1.6630 1
USD;
1.6635 1
USD;
5 ;
- USD, - CHF.
GBP/USD 1.6310/15 ,
1.6310 1 GBP;
1.6315 1 GBP;
5 ;
- GBP, - USD.
1.2.1.2.
-
.

.
.
,
USD/JPY, USD/CHF, ..
.
(GBP/USD) , - .
:
(AUD/USD) (NZD/USD).

(EUR/USD). ,
USD, .. USD/CHF CHF,
GBP/USD GBP, EUR/USD EUR.
1.2.1.3. /

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( ) ( )
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23
: EUR , USD
.
: USD , CHF .
24
.
(
) ( ),
, .. ,
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:
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BUY .
(, GBP/USD
), ,
USD/CHF, -
.
, ,
( ,
) SELL .

(, GBP/USD ),
, USD/CHF, -
.
1.2.1.4. -
FOREX .
-.

-: EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF .
-
. - ,
,
.
1. CHFJPY = USDJPY / USDCHF

2. GBPCHF = GBPUSD / USDCHF
3. EURGBP = EURUSD / GBPUSD
1.2.1.5.
25
.
$
USD

Green back, Buck
EUR
JPY (YEN)

GBP (STG)

Cable
CHF (SFR)

Swiss, Swissy
FRF

Paris
SEK

Stokie
A$
AUD

Aussie
C$
CAD

NZD

Kiwi
XAU
()
XAG
()
26
.
1.2.2.
1.2.2.1.
: ,
, , .
() .
- .
Buy () Sell ()
Out (, ). ,
-
.
, .
, ,
100 000 ( ).
-
"" . ,
Forexite .
1.2.2.2.
- ,
. ,
.
.
, , (Long
- ). - (Short- ).
, , ""
" ".
Square.
. Buy 100 000 GBP

1.6200 , , Sell 162 000 USD,
( GBP/USD) -
.
. Sell 100 000 GBP,
.
, .
1.2.2.3.
() , ,

.
27
= ( - )
.
1. .
2. ,
.
3. ,
, - .
4. , : ,
.
, EUR/USD 1.2650/55
, .. , .
1.2655. - ,
, 1.2675, .
= 100 000 * (1.2675 - 1.2655) = 200 USD.
1.2.3.
1.2.3.1.
FOREX
. ,
.

, ( ) .
(Leverage).
,
,
( ).
1.2.3.2.
( ) - ,
.
- .
(Leverage) , ,
.
, 10 100.
, .
5 000 USD, 1:100.

, 500 000
28
.
USD (= 5 000 * 100) .
500 000, 100 000 USD,
. 4 000 (= 5 000 100 000 / 100) .
1.2.3.3. (Value Date)

(Value Date) - .
(Spot), .. ,
.
,
1.2.3.4.
C
. - ,
.
. (
) .
, .
( )
.
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-
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.
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.
,
() Roll-over.
1.2.3.5. (Roll-over)
(Roll-over Swap Tom/Next)
,
( - Spot - ) -
. -

,
.
(Buy Sell)
(
).
( ),
.
29
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.
.
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,
.
1.2.3.6.
( ,
Equity - /)
.
. ,
, -
.
- ,
(= / ). -
(
),
.
- 50% 10% .
,
,
,
.
10 000 USD. 100.

15% .
500 000 USD CHF 1.7020,
.
5 000 USD (= 500 000 / 100).
750 USD (= 0.15 * 5 000).
30
.
1.6710
9 276 USD (= 500 000 * (1.7020 - 1.6710) / 1.6710) , ,
724 USD (= 10 000 - 9 276),
.

.
1.2.4.
/
Buy Sell ("" "")
, - /
.
: (Stop Order) (Limit Order);
Stop Loss (Stop), Limit (Take Profit),
.
1.2.4.1. (Stop Order)
- ,
(..
- ).
("Stop Loss")
("Stop Profit")
;
.
, USD/JPY 119.20/25.
Buy 100 000 USD/JPY 119.25
Stop Order Sell 100 000 USD/JPY 118.75. ,
USD/JPY 118.75,
, .
50 000 JPY.
1.2.4.2. (Limit Order)
- ,
(..
- ).
("Take Profit")
; .
, USD/JPY 119.20/25.
Buy 100 000 USD/JPY 119.25
Limit Order Sell 100 000 USD/JPY 120.25. ,
USD/JPY 120.25,
. 100 000 JPY.
31
.
1.2.4.3. (One Cancels Other)
(Stop Limit),
OCO (One Cancels Other - ). ,
, .
, USD/JPY 119.20/25.
Buy 100 000 USD/JPY 119.25
:
: Sell 100 000 USD/JPY 118.75;
: Sell 100 000 USD/JPY 120.25.
, USD/JPY 118.75,
( ), Limit Order
.
USD/JPY 120.25, (
), Stop Order
.
1.2.4.4. GTC (Good Till Cancelled)
GTC (Good Till Cancelled -
).
, . Day
order - , (
FOREX -).
FOREX GTC,
.
1.2.4.5.
,
. ,
, ,
, .
,
.
.

,
.
EUR
28.02.04.
32
1.2490-93 (
CMS-FOREX).

1.2493 ( BUY), 1.2390 ( SELL),
:
Stop Buy 1.2498 ( 1 )

Limit Buy 1.2488 ( 2 )
Stop Sell 1.2485 ( 3 )
Limit Sell 1.2495 ( 4 )

CMS-FOREX.
33

,
. , ?
, , , ,
-, . 5
( CMS) 20 ( ).
, ,
.
1.2.4.6. (Slippage)
,
.
- .
: ,
. MS.
: , ( )
-
. Slippage ().

, ,
. -
(Slippage) -
.
.
, , ,
(Market Offer), (Market Bid),
,
.
1.2.4.7.
LEVERAGE

1990- ,
34
.
,
.
, , ,
, .
FOREX , ,
.
, FOREX ,
.
,
,
FOREX ,
:
,
, .
FOREX
, -, - Leverage.
Leverage
FOREX.
FOREX ,
300 10-15 1:100.
, , ,
? ?
, , ,
:
1000100=100.000 .
,
, . - :
100.000 ,
, ,
, FOREX- .
, FOREX
, . , (
) , 78 740 1.27,
5 , 1.2730, 78 740 ,
100236 . 100000 ,
, 236 .
, , ,
FOREX ,
, FOREX,
. ? , . .
10000$,
3% , ,
-
- 30 (
). , , 300$.
, ,
35
.
, , ( - 30
) 1500$ 15% . .
, ,
.
FOREX 12-17%
. , , .
. FOREX ,
. , ,
30000
1:50 1:30.
.
,
1:100. , GCI (http://www.gcitrading.com)
$500
, 0.5%
1:200. , ,
,
1:100. ,
, , .
,
, ?
. .
: ,
, .
,
30-50
, 1:30.
,
FOREX
.
2.
2.1.

, , ,
,
.
, - .
,
, -
.
,
, .
.
, -
36
.
.
, .

- ,
,
, ,
,
.
market-makers,
, ,
, .
- -
, .
, - ,

,
.
,
, ,

. -
,
.
, , :
;
.
2.2. , FOREX
,
:
;
;
;
-.
:
-
, (
, , ..);
- ,
.
37
.

,

.

:
;
;
;
- ;
, ;
, ,
,
,
;
2.3. .
,

.
,
, .
,
, , ..
FOREX
. ,
,
, , ,
.
,,'',
. ,
-
,
.
.
2.3.1.
.

38
.
.
(Trade deficit)
(Payment deficit)
: (CPI)
1
(PPI)
(, ..)
(GDP)
(Unemployment)
(4, 3, 2, 1, 0)
(Retail sales)
(Housing starts)
(Orders)
(Producer price)
(Productivity)
(Deposit repos)
(DJI, NIKKEY, DAX, FTSE)
(T-bills, T-bonds)
production)
(Industrial
.

. ,

.
,

.
, .
.

- . ,

. -
, , -
, , ,
, , , ,
.
39
2.4. - .

,
. ,
,

( ).

,
, ,
. .

400 - . ,
,
.
, .

, , .

- .

, , .

- , ,
,
.
,

. (
, 1994 )

.
(international monetary union),

, ,
, .
,
,
.
40
.
2.5. ,
.
,
.

29 1995
1.1400 1.1480
, 1.1580 .
,

104.55 97.15,

. ,
,
,
.
2.5.1.
:
,

.
,
.
:
: ;
.
: ; ,

( , ..).

. 2.5.2.
41
.
.
--> % -->
--> % -
-->
>

-->
-->
.
,

,
-->
-->
->
-->

(
-->.
.),
(

)
-
-->
> ,

,
-->
,
--> --> .

-

2.6.

-
EURO - ,
.

;
;

. ,
, ,
.
42
= ( + + ) (1 - ),
- ,
- (1 - ),
- ,
- ,
- .
:
(m) = 1(m) / 0(m),
(n) = 1(n) / 0(n),
m n M N, 0 1
.
:
= ( + ) / ,
- ,
- ,
-
( , . ,
).

,

" - ":
- - ,
.. ,
;
-
.
" ".
2.5.
43
.
,
:
( ,
.);
,

,
, .

Interest rates differential ( )
: T-bills ( )
USA Bonds
UK Gilts
Germany Bunds
Japan JGB
USA
Japan
Japan bonds USA 60%
.
80%
bonds USA.

DJIA USA
Nikkey 225 - Japan
FTSE 100 UK
CAC 40 - France
DAX 30 Germany
Hang Seng HK ( )
- (DJI)
4 -.
- (The Dow Jones Industrial Average - DJIA) 30
. -

. :

, .
15 20%
, - .
44
.

(
, 10%
,
). - .
.
- (The Dow Jones Transportation Average DJTA) - , 20
(,
).
- (The Dow Jones Utility Average - DJUA) 15 , -
.
- (The Dow Jones Composite Average - DJCA) , ,
-.
" " (S&P)
" ".
- 500 100
.
S&P - 500
500 , :
400 , 20 , 40 40
. ,
- ,
,
. 80%
, -
. -,
,

, .
.
S&P - 100. , 500
, ,
.
.
- (NYSE Index)

,
- , , ,
,
(
, ). -,
, NYSE .
45
.
-
. , -
.
(AMEX)
,
.
(AMEX Major
Market Index) 20
.
.
, , . , 15
-.
.
(AMEX Market
Value Index) :
,
, .
1973 .
800 ,
,
, , ,
.
, ,
,
, , .
.
(NASDAQ)
,
,
. NASDAQ,
3500 (
). ,
. 1971 .

.

.

,
:
46
3.
Discount rate. ,
.
,
.
4.
Repo rate. ,

() .
. Fed
Funds ( Repo USA)
5. - Lombard rate. ,
,
.
:
USA
Federal Funds
Discount rate
UK
Repo rate
EU(12)
Refinancing tender
Deposit rate
Marginal lending
rate
Japan
Discount rate
Overnight call rate
target
3 month LIBOR
Switzerland
range
Canada
Overnight rate target
Bank rate
Australia Cash rate

1.75% 11.12.01 -0.25%
24.09.02
1.25% 11.12.01 -0.25%
24.09.02
04-05.09.02
4.00% 08.11.01 -0.50%
3.25% 08.11.01 -0.50%
12.09.02
2.25% 08.11.01 -0.50%
12.09.02
4.25%
08.11.01 -0.50%
12.09.02
0.10%
18.09.01 -0.15%
17-18.09.02
0.15%
28.02.01 -0.10%
17-18.09.02
26.07.02 -0.50%
19.09.02
16.07.02+0.25%
16.07.02+0.25%
04.06.02+0.25%
16.10.02
16.10.02
01.10.02
0.25 1.25%
2.75%
3.00%
4.75%

.
.
, .

, .
:
USA :
47
FED Federal Reseve System ;
FOMC Federal
Open Market Committee,
: .
- Alan Greenspan
Germany :
Bundesbank (BBK , Buba)
Buba cooncil meeting - Buba 2

;
Ernst Welteke
Great Britain :
Bank of England BOE ;
1 ;
Eddie George
Switzerland :
Swiss National Bank (SNB) ;
Hans Meyer
Bank of Japan ( BOJ ) ;
24 ;
Masaru Hayami
Europian Central Bank ( ECB ) ;
Willem F. Duisenberg , President of

the ECB
Japan :
EU :

, , ,
.

, ,
.
48
.

:
, .
, ,

, ,
.

- .

(London International Financial Futures Exchange - LIFFE),
(European Options Exchange EOE), (Deutsche Terminboerse - DTB),
(Singapore International Monetary Exchange - SIMEX)
(Sydney Futures Exchange - SFE) .

(Consumer Price Index CPI) -
.
(Producer Price Index PPI)
.
, .
3% .
:
1, 2, 3 , 4 MONEY SUPPLY .
1 - , ;
2 =1 + , ;
3 =2 + ;
4 =3 + .
, , ,
.
(Gross Domestic Product GDP)
GDP, .
3% ; .
, .
CPI PPI M/M.
GDP Q/Q Y/Y.
(Treasure Statement)
1.
(Personal Income)

(Consumer Sentiment)
49
.
2. (Construction Spending)
(Hosing Starts)
(Building Permits)
(New Houses Sales)
(Existing Houses Sales).
(Unemployment Rate)
. .
(Imital Claims).
(Continuing Claims).

.
(Retail Sales) ,
.
(Durable Goods).

16:30 18:30 (Reuters,CQG)
JAPAN
31 . , ,

, .
: USD/JPI, USD/DEM,
DEM/JPI, CHF/JPI, GBP/JPI.
.
, , ,
. -
.
GERMANY

( ,
). , ,
($30),

.

1992 1 1993 ,
:
1992
.

. 1993
: - 32,6%, - 19,9%, - 11,5%.
1994 - --

.
Maastricht criterion , ,
:
< 3%
50
.
< 60%
Discount Rate < + 2%.
SWITZERLAND
, ,
. CHF .
, ,
.
UK

, .
- ,
,
,
, .
3. .
3.1.
3.1.1.
,
, , .
,
, .

70- ,
.

.
.
1. ( ).
, (, ), , ,
.
2. .
51
.

.
( )
.
, , :
( )
. ,

. , ( )
, .

.
( ),
( ) ( ).
,
.
, ,
.
3. .
,
, ,
.
- ,
,
.
< >
, , :
, ( ).
, , ,
:
() . , (,
) .
, - .
( ).
,

.
. , ,
, .
3.1.2. ():
"" -
"" -
(flat, whipsaw) -
:
52
,
3.1.3.
1. -
. (
).
2. () -
( ), ( ),
( )
( ).
5 .
3. ( ).
4. .
3.1.4.
, ,
, .

.
:
53
1. . ,
,
. , ,
,
.
2. .
.
,
.
, .
: , .
,
, , . ,
,
, , .
(
) ,
() .

.
3. . , ,

, ..
. , ,
.
.
, , ,
,
. .
. - , ""
, "",
"". .
4. .
. ,

.
5. .
.
54
6. , ,
.
3.1.5. .
-
. -
.
: , , , .
.
: " - ". : "
".
(Resistance):
() , ,
,
.
,
(Support):
() , ,
,
.
.
.
.
.
55
:
,
( )
, .
3.2.
:
-
- - .
3.2.1.

-
.
CHARTS.
:
1. Monthly (M)
2. Weekly (W)
3. Daily (D)
4. :
- Hourly (H)
- Semihourly
- 15- Quarterly
- 5-
-
CHARTS:
a) Line
56
b) Bar :
High ( ); Last, Close ( ); Open ( ); Low

( )
c) CandleStick ( ) ,
.
High
Close
Open < Close
Open
Low
High
Open
Close < Open
Close
Low
57
, ,
(Resistance res), ,
, (Support sup).
Bar ( Open ) , (Close).
-,
, (sup, res),
.
(Trend).
, .
(Reversal Patterns)
Head & Shoulders - -.
58

.
,
.
Double Top - ()
; .
Triple top (bottom) ( )

59
(Continuation)
60
H .
H.
.
3.2.2. M

.
:
- ( );
- ( ).
61
.
:
(Moving Average)
,

. .

.
.
Movings ( Simple Moving Average )

( ) .
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 10
i -
n = (1 + 2 + 3 ++ n )/n
n - .
.
. :
9 = 9
14 = 14,
9 14 .
Moving 9 14
.
.
,
.
, Moving:
4 13 34
62
Movings (Weighted Moving Average)

1, 2, 3
3P + 2 P2 + 1P1
WMA3 = 3
3 + 2 +1
Movings (Exponential Moving Average)
1, 2, 3
2
1
EMAk = P3 + EMAk 1
3
3
, .
,
. .
.
.
(Price Oscillator - OSC)
.
,

, .
,
, .
, OSC
S ,
OSC.
: n>m, S.
:
63
.
OSC= n - m
Buy: OSC> S*Man
Sell: OSC< -S*MAn
:
- , ,
.
(.. -
).
-
,
.
- ,
, ,
. , , ,
over-
( ),
. ,
, over
.
- ().
- ,
, .

. -
.
- ,
.
, ,
.
-
, ,
. ,
, 2-5% .
- ,
; .

, ,
64

(Moving Average Convergence Divegence - MACD)
OSC.
MACD
, .
12-
26- .
( )
9-
. MACD

.
(
) .
1 = EMA12 - EMA26
2 =EMA9(EMA12 -EMA26)
3 = 1 2 -
1 2 .
.
12 26, 9.

65
(Relative Strength Index - RSI)

RSI ,
n, ,
.
( 100%) (
0%) RSI.
- n .
:
CU
RS =
,
CD
- .
CU = 1 + 2
CD = 3 + 4
CU .
CD .
1
1 + RS 1
RSI = 1
100% =
100%
1 + RS
1 + RS
0 100.
, 80, 20.
:
Overbought o/b
Oversold o/s.
o/b o/s 80 20,
70 30. RSI ,
.
66
(Stochastic oscillator)
- n .
%K % D :
%K = (Ct - Ln )/( Hn - Ln )x100% Hn - n
Ln - n
Ct -
%D( ) -
%.
Overbought Oversold.
, Range.
%K
%D
4.
67
.
4.1.
.
,
.
,
.
-
.
.
.
, .
.
, "
".
,
3:1.
( ),
:
)
, ;
) ;
) ;
) -
(break-even point).

, .

, ,
10 % .
, .
,
; ,
.
, .

.
" " ,
.

, ,
.
.
; ,
, , .
.
, : " , ".
:
.
68
.
4.2.
50% .
, , 1015% .
, ,
5% .
,
, 20-25% .
:
. " : ".
"", 1996.
.. " ". "",
1996.
" ". " ", 1992.
. " ".. , 1999
. . "
". "", 1998.
" : ". ,
"", 1998.
. " ". - " " 1996.
. " , ". , "",
69

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1.1. FOREX ...............................................................2

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1. CHFJPY = USDJPY / USDCHF

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. Buy 100 000 GBP

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Stop Buy 1.2498 ( 1 )

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(DJI, NIKKEY, DAX, FTSE)

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