16-18 / 2007

:
. .

:
. 130
11733
4291511
009626
4291432
009626
E mail :
Economics@alzaytoonah.edu.jo




-


























1967









. .
.



16-18 / 2007

:
. .

. 130
11733
4291511
009626
4291432
009626
E mail :
Economics@alzaytoonah.edu.jo




-























1967







. .
.

:







1960


:









.



) ( Expert system










.










.




] The Energy Journal no 1 1986 P20 [.

.


% 50

65

1950
1952




1953
)( 2.76




.


) ( 3 1954

) ( 20 ) ( 120
1955
) %( 20.4


) % ( 59

) % ( 6 ) % ( 4



1956








1957)(3.25




) % ( 57
1959


) ( 2.92
) ( 3.14





1959









) OBEC (
1960/ 9 / 14
( 30 ) %

1960 - 1945

1945

1946

1947

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1.36

1.70

2.68

2.68

2.68

2.76

2.76

2.76

1.05

1.05

1.20

2.06

2.03

1.75

1.75

1.75

: Wayne A. Leeman , The Price of Middle East oil , Cornell University

Prees , New York 1962 pp.103-106

1960 - 1945

1953

1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

2.76

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.25

3.25

3.14

3.14

1.97

1.97

1.97

1.97

2.12

2.12

1.94

1.80

"



"
{ { ) (23 1976 20

1960


/ /












) ( 2.82 1.9



[ ] OPEC annual review and record , 1970 , p.2

) % ( 60 50


) % ( 55







.










1978









) % ( 10


1979
) % ( 56

:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Oil_Prices_1861_2006.jpg

1971

2.6

10.3

1972

2.8

10.4

1973

3.1

9.5

1974

10.4

26

1975

10.4

23.2

1976

11.6

25.8

1977

2005 1947

1970

12.6

25.7

1978

12.9

23.5

1979

29.2

46.3

1980

36

50

1981

34.2

49.5

1982

31.7

48

1983

30.1

46.2

1984

28.1

44.5

1985

27.5

44.4

1986

13

18

1987

17.7

22.2

1988

14.2

16.6

1989

17.3

20.1

1990

22.3

23.9

1991

18.6

20

1992

18.4

19.4

1993

16.3

18.1

1994

15.5

16.7

1995

16.9

16.9

1996

20.3

20.9

1997

18.7

20.3

1998

14.4

16.2

1999

10.8

16.8

 1980 1990
) % ( 80


.
:

.



) ( 1.40 - 0.70

1960
) ( 1980 1970

1985

1986
10


.

(
*) Adleman



) Frankl (


:






..





.
==================================================
M. A. Adleman Oil Prices in long run , The journal of Business Vol . 37 No. 2 . 1964 .

: ) ( M. Gholi
"" Industrialisation and Trade Policies Of Opec Countries








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.
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1988

1987

. 1989
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. 1998

www.oil-price.net
www.foxnews.com
www.peakoil.com
www.smh.com.au
www.bunkerworld.com
www.protworld.com

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