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ISSN:22414878

T 113
19 2015

.

sgogos@eurobank.gr


okosma@eurobank.gr
o

arkonstantopoulou@eurobank.gr

Eurobank
Ergasias
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(Eurobank)



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. Eurobank




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Eurobank.


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T 113, 19 2015

4 2014
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) 1981-1983.
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: () (..), () Eurobank
Research.
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3 , 0,74%2014q1, 0,33%-2014q2 0,75%-2014q3, 4
2014 -0,17%.

2014.

,
,

: () Cordoba G. and Kehoe T., (2009), The Current

Financial Crisis: What Should We Learn from the Great Depressions of the
Twentieth Century?, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Research
Department, Staff Report No. 421., () Bergoeing R., Kehoe P., Kehoe T. and
Soto R. (2002), Policy-Driven Productivity in Chile and Mexico in the 1980s
and 1990s, The American Economic Review, Vol. 92, No. 2, pp. 16-21.
() Bergoeing R., Kehoe P., Kehoe T. and Soto R. (2007), A Decade Lost and
Found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s, in Kehoe T. and Prescott E., editors,
Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century, Federal Reserve Bank of
Minneapolis, pp. 217256.

T 113, 19 2015


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PPPs).

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T 113, 19 2015

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T 113, 19 2015


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5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
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T 113, 19 2015


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: () .

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/
2015/pdf/ee1_en.pdf

2015f
1,3%

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1,9%

T 113, 19 2015

1:
: , (%), . . yoy%, . . qoq%
4 (2014) () 1,55%
(1,97%, 2014q3). % -0,17% (0,75%, 2014q3).
: 1996q4-2014q4


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: 2008q22014q4
: 1996q4 2014q4
:
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: =
: 13/2/2015
. .: 27/2/2015

: ( )
(2014) 25,79% (25,85%, 10/2014)
-1,94 (-1,91 , 10/2014).
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: 5/200511/2014

: 3/200811/2014



: 5/2005 - 11/2014
:
: 15,50%
: 11,44%
: 27,95% (9/2013)
: 7,27% (5/2008)
: = ,
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: 12/2/2015
. .: 5/3/2015

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(2015) (%) -2,76% (-2,53%, 12/2014)
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: 8/1997 - 1/2015
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: 5,66% (9/2010)
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: =
: 17/2/2015
. .: 10/3/2015

: () (..), () Eurobank Research.

T 113, 19 2015

2: ( )
: 1996q3-2014q3

: 2008q12014q3

: 28/11/2014
2014q3


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()

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3,05% (9,28% 2014q2,
9,17% 2013q3).

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(.),
34,37% (36,33% 2014q2,
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: 27/2/2015

T 113, 19 2015

3: ( )
(3/2004-11/2014)

(3/2004-11/2014)

: (, , )

: 20/1/2015




2,28
(2,53: 10/2014
0,85: 11/2013).



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(-18,14: 10/2014
-16,89: 11/2013).

: (, )




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(19,64: 10/2014
16,81: 11/2013).



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(-2,70: 10/2014
-2,95: 11/2013).

,


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(-2,45: 10/2014
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3,42
(3,72: 10/2014
3,89: 11/2013).




3,10
(3,41: 10/2014
3,42: 11/2013).

: () (), () Eurobank Research.

: 20/2/2015

T 113, 19 2015

4:
: 3/2002-12/2014

: 4/200812/2014

()

: 29/1/2015
(2014)


235,20 (232,84
, 11/2014, 239,33
, 12/2013).


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-6,33%, 12/2013).

()

(2014)


23,56 (20,83
, 11/2014, 21,81 ,
12/2013).


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()


(2014)

101,35
(101,62 , 11/2014,
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()

(2014)



96,70
(96,92 ,
11/2014, 100,43 ,
12/2013).


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-5,38%, 12/2013).

: () (), () Eurobank Research.

10

T 113, 19 2015

5: ,
: 7/1997-1/2015

: 5/20081/2015

(: 40%)

(: 30%)

(: 20%)

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(: 5%)

: (European Commission)

: 29/1/2015

(2015)
(95,3 )
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: 26/2/2015

11

T 113, 19 2015
:19/2/2015

A6:

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1.,6.

y
m

(yoy,%)
(qoq,%)

%
(yoy,%)

1.97%
0.75%
185.11
25.79%
2.76%

2014q3
2013
14
15

0.34% 2014q2 2.62%


0.33%
0.46%
192.61 2012
206.16
25.85% 14 27.72%
2.53% 14 1.40%

2013q3

0.66% 2014q2 3.15%


2.21%
0.97%
6.04%
2.32%
9.52%
6.94%
9.28%
9.17%

2013q3

1.,6.

(yoy,%)

3.60%
2.44%
2.69%
6.91%
3.05%

2014q3

4.,6.

(yoy,%)

0.10%
7.00%

2013

1.,6.

(yoy,)

52.58
107.49
54.91
2.59

14

53.44 14
106.89
53.45
13.18

q
m

2.,6.
1.,6.

(yoy,%)

5.83%
30.9%

2014q4

1.,6.

(yoy,%)

3.84%
1.68%

1.,6.

(yoy,%)

1.33%
19.89%

14
14
2014q3

14

1.40%
3.30%

2012

2011
13
14

2.10%
0.20%

2011

97.28
47.48
49.80
6.50

13

6.28% 2012q3 6.68%


0.97%
2.11%
226.21 2010 239.25
26.46% 12 20.94%
0.04% 13 2.06%

2011q3

6.94% 2012q3 7.51%


13.54%
2.99%
38.57%
9.26%
1.03%
4.81%
17.42%
4.73%

2011q3

2.80%
0.30%

2010

3.90%
7.40%

2009
11
12

2009

294.50 12 387.59
262.45
315.85
32.04
71.73
45.87
29.37

11

7.12% 2014q3 9.59%


19.0% 14 36.2%

2013q4 12.84% 2012q4 6.60%


13 66.6% 12 8.0%

2011q4

2.53%
0.79%

14 1.39%
14 0.08%
0.69% 2014q2 11.13%
34.29%
5.17%

13
13
2013q3

1.86% 12 11.29%
16.50% 12 6.37%

11
11
2011q3

9.12% 2012q3
32.41%

9.74%
6.54%

11

12m

2.,6.

2.28
18.15
7.88
2.10
8.17
19.77
11.42
7.83
0.52
2.76
0.26
2.50
3.42
3.10
0.32

14

2.53
18.14
7.77
2.20
8.16
19.64
11.38
7.75
0.51
2.70
0.25
2.45
3.72
3.41
0.31

14

0.85
16.89
7.80
1.41
7.67
16.81
10.28
6.44
0.09
2.95
0.24
2.71
3.89
3.42
0.47

13

6.28
20.60
10.43
1.27
8.90
15.29
8.58
7.10
0.38
2.60
0.28
2.32
1.63
1.60
0.03

12

20.27
26.72
10.47
3.25
13.00
14.49
8.27
6.79
0.57
8.39
0.27
8.12
0.36
0.64
0.28

11

1.,6.

12.2%
8.2%
174.9%

2013

8.6%
3.6%
156.9%

2012

10.1%
2.9%
171.3%

2011

11.1%
5.2%
146.0%

2010

15.20%

2009

5.,6.

51.37
55.28
55.06
56.04
1.87
4.94
3.70
0.76

14

45.93
47.05
47.76
49.58
3.57
2.88
1.83
2.53

14

41.32
42.60
43.77
44.17
2.65
3.54
2.45
1.57

14

37.28
37.68

14

32.92
33.25
35.77
37.37
1.95
0.96
2.85
4.12

14

2.,6.

0.20%
0.05%
0.30%

10/9/14

0.10% 11/6/14
0.15%
0.40%

0.00%
0.25%
0.75%

13/11/14

0.00%
0.50%
1.00%

8/5/13

0.00%
0.75%
1.50%

11/7/12

2.,6.

1.15%
5.03%
1.94%
5.23%

14

1.19%
5.13%
1.38%
5.27%

14

1.81%
5.12%
2.02%
5.56%

13

2.85%
5.76%
2.87%
5.79%

12

2.81%
6.82%
2.59%
6.35%

11

2.,6.

(yoy,%)

1.73%
8.01%
1.79%
3.71%

14

2.96%
2.63%
2.02%
3.99%

14

6.33%
22.75%
3.85%
5.38%

13

16.85% 12
52.25%
10.65%
5.79%

4.13%
6.20%
2.53%
4.32%

11

2.,6.

(yoy,%)

2.33%
6.04%
35.48%
3.92%
6.17%
0.56%
3.71%
3.50%

14

0.12% 14 2.77%
17.02%
15.73%
9.42%
39.98%
8.83%
16.81%
15.88%
1.73%
0.88%
0.05%
5.20%
18.26%
0.89%
21.50%

13

5.75%
38.91%
0.16%
6.06%
9.82%
7.09%
22.18%
8.79%

12 17.12%

11

35.46%
6.67%
2.22%
24.04%
16.22%
19.16%
13.58%

95.3
7.9
9
49.3
1
29.8

15

3.,6.

99.1
3
15.3
53.9
4.7
16.6

14

92.8
11.2
2.5
62.7
11.6
23.4

39.56
41.34
2.53
1.55
2.29
3.66

14

85.8
13.7
28.6
71.9
30.5
58.6

13

78.1
24.5
33
80.1
34.1
61.2

12

:(1)(..),(2)(),(3)(EuropeanCommission),(4)(Eurostat),
(5),(6)Eurobank(EurobankResearch).
:(1)y,qm,,(2)(yoy),(qoq),12m
12,,(3),(4)(),
,(5)()
,,,
.

12

T 113, 19 2015

&
:
:
:
:
:

Eurobank .., . 20 & 5, 10557 , +30.210.3337365, fax: +30.210.333.7687, e-mail: Research@eurobank.gr

Eurobank

: http://www.eurobank.gr/research
twitter: http://twitter.com/Eurobank_Group

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