Technical Picks | March 28, 2015

8500 - Crucial support turned strong resistance

Sensex (27459) / Nifty (8341)
Trading for the week began marginally higher on Monday,

Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart

owing to positive cues from other global bourses. The Nifty

then slipped into a consolidation mode and then corrected in
the latter part of the day. This was followed by two consecutive
lethargic days during which the Nifty managed to defend the
8500 mark. However, on Thursday, we witnessed a gap down
opening, well below this support level, which resulted in a
complete sell off. This pessimism continued on Friday as well
but the Nifty managed to give a modest bounce from the lows
to conclude the week above the 8300 mark. The Banking,
Capital Goods and Metal stocks were the major draggers during
the week. The Nifty ended the concluded week with a sharp cut

Source: Falcon

Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart

of 2.68% over the previous week's closing.

Pattern formation:

The '89-day EMA' and the '89-week EMA' are placed at

28226 / 8524 and 24807 / 7448 levels, respectively.

The '20-day EMA' and the '20-week EMA' are placed at

28408 / 8617 and 28183 / 8509 levels, respectively.

Future outlook
The bulls continued to face a challenging time as we witnessed

Source: Falcon

a relentless slide in the Nifty from the early March high of

the daily momentum oscillators, we expect the Nifty to take a

9119.20
9119.20. Until Thursday, the daily '89 EMA' zone of

breather before possibly giving a minor technical bounce

8540 - 8500 was seen as a crucial support for the index. We

towards 8450 - 8500

8500. However, in the near term, we expect

witnessed a violation of this support zone with a 'Breakaway

this previous support level of 8500 to now act as a strong

Gap'. A breach of any important level with a gap is considered

resistance. In the coming week, we are seeing a trading range

a strong signal and thus, we witnessed a complete nosedive on

of 8250 to 8500 for our market during which we expect the

Thursday. We expected this correction to continue towards the

Nifty to trade with a negative bias. On the downside, the 8250

lower end of the weekly 'Megaphone' pattern, i.e. till

mark would now act as a major support for the bulls. A violation

8280 - 8250.
8250 In line with our view, the Nifty corrected towards

of this support may augment strong pessimism in the market.

this support zone (posted a low of 8269.15

8269.15) on Friday and

In this scenario, lower levels of 8100 - 8050 cannot be ruled

then gave a modest bounce back to close well beyond the 8300

out. Considering the ongoing development, it's advisable not

mark. Going forward, considering this major support zone

to trade aggressively and also not be in a hurry to predict the

8250 along with the extreme oversold condition of

(8280
8280 - 8250)

near term bottom until we get any reversal signs.

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Technical Picks | March 28, 2015

Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks

SCRIPS

S2

S1

PIV
OT
PIVO

R1

R2

SENSEX

26,514

26,986

27,721

28,193

28,928

8,054

8,198

8,413

8,556

8,771

17,176

17,610

18,154

18,588

19,132

NIFTY
BANKNIFTY

1,498

1,524

1,564

1,590

1,630

Ambuja Cements Ltd

238

244

252

258

265

ASIAN PAINTS LIMITED

738

759

789

810

841

Axis Bank Limited

506

526

547

567

588

Bajaj Auto Limited

1,952

1,985

2,014

2,047

2,075

BANK OF BARODA

145

153

163

171

182

Bharat Heavy Elect Ltd.

217

225

236

244

254

Bharat Petroleum Ltd

684

716

745

777

806

Bharti Airtel Limited

351

364

384

397

417

Cairn India Limited

206

211

219

224

232

Cipla Ltd

669

681

700

713

731

COALINDIA

329

339

356

366

383

3,224

3,320

3,447

3,543

3,671

ACC Limited

Dr. Reddys Lab Ltd

361

370

381

391

402

3,438

3,503

3,594

3,660

3,751

HCL Technologies Ltd.

916

939

979

1,002

1,041

HDFC Bank Ltd.

969

992

1,026

1,050

1,083

HDFC Ltd.

1,177

1,220

1,300

1,343

1,424

Hero MotoCorp Limited

GAIL (India) Limited

Grasim Ind Ltd.

2,495

2,536

2,592

2,633

2,689

Hindalco Ind Ltd.

125

129

133

138

141

Hindustan Unilever Ltd

809

830

870

891

931

ICICI BANK LTD.

293

304

313

324

333

Idea Cellular Limited

154

163

175

184

196

IDFC LIMITED

156

162

166

172

175

IndusInd Bank Ltd.

832

858

877

903

923

2,060

2,131

2,203

2,274

2,346

Infosys Limited

306

312

321

327

336

Kotak Mahindra Bank Limi

1,226

1,263

1,312

1,349

1,399

Larsen & Toubro Limited

1,584

1,631

1,660

1,707

1,737

Lupin Limited

1,821

1,889

1,963

2,031

2,105

Mah & Mah Ltd.

1,126

1,158

1,191

1,223

1,256

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd

3,494

3,552

3,595

3,653

3,697

NMDC Limited

118

122

127

130

135

NTPC Limited

136

141

148

153

160

Oil & Natural Gas Corp

289

297

307

315

324

Power Grid Corporation o

138

141

147

150

155

Punjab National Bank

129

138

151

160

173

Reliance Industries Ltd

763

787

826

850

888

SESA STERLITE LIMITED

176

183

190

196

204

State Bank of India

241

253

266

277

291

Sun Pharma Ltd

962

987

1,028

1,053

1,093

ITC Ltd.

2,417

2,468

2,553

2,604

2,689

Tata Motors Limited

497

516

537

556

577

Tata Power Co. Ltd.

71

73

76

78

82

297

306

320

330

344

TATA CONSULTANCY SERV LT

Tata Steel Limited

610

628

657

675

703

2,661

2,732

2,805

2,875

2,949

Wipro Ltd

573

592

628

648

684

Yes Bank Limited

758

788

813

844

869

Zee Entertain. Enterp.Lt

313

325

343

356

374

TECH MAHINDRA LIMITED

UltraTech Cement Limited

Technical Research Team

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Derivatives Review | March 28, 2015

Market may remain in broader range of 8150-8550

Nifty spot closed at 8341.10 this week against a close of 8570.90 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 0.87 to 0.83
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 12.03%
12.03%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 14.21%
14.21%.

Put-Call Ratio Analysis

Implied Volatility Analysis

PCR-OI has decreased from 0.87 to 0.83 levels. Being start of

Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has decreased from 14.77%.to

series the overall buildup is quite scattered. In call of buildup is

13.85%. Historical volatility (HV) of NIFTY is at 19.29% and

seen in the range of 8400-9000 strikes and in put options 8000-

that for BANKNIFTY is trading at 30.44%. Liquid counters having

8600 strike prices. Friday we saw 8400-8600 added good

very high HV are HEXAWARE, SAIL, AMTEKAUTO, INFY and

amount of buildup and we believe these are long positions

WIPRO. Stocks where HV are on lower side are HDIL, RELINFRA,

formed by FIIs. Maximum buildup in current series is seen in

ADANIPOWER, JISLJALEQS and RELCAPITAL.

9000 call & 8200 put options.

Open Interest Analysis

Cost-of-Carry Analysis

Total open interest of market has decreased from

Nifty current month futures closed at a premium of 93.50 points

`2,49,267/- cr. to `1,75,438/- cr. Stock futures open interest

against the premium of 100.15 points to its spot. Next month

has decreased from `73,325/- cr. to `64,004/- cr. Liquid

future is trading with premium of 147.40 points. Liquid counters

counters names which added significant positions last week

where CoC is high are JPPOWER, DISHTV, GMRINFRA,

are CENTURYTEX, WOCKPHARMA, SRTRANSFIN, IBREALEST

HDFCBANK and ADANIPOWER. Stocks with negative CoC are

and ARVIND. On the other hand unwinding was visible in

SAIL, GODREJIND, TVSMOTOR, IDEA and BIOCON.

counters like NTPC, HCLTECH, BHARTIARTL, TECHM and ACC.

Derivative Strategy
Scrip : IT
C
ITC

CMP : ``320.85
320.85

View: Mildly Bullish

Buy/Sell

Lot Size : 1000

Strategy: Long Call Ladder

Qty

Scrip

Strike
Price

Series

Option
Type

Buy/Sell Rate
(`)

BUY

1000

ITC

320

APR

CE

9.00

SELL

1000

ITC

330

APR

CE

5.00

SELL

1000

ITC

340

APR

CE

2.50

LBEP - `321.50
UBEP - `348.50
Max. Risk: Unlimited
If ITC continues to move above UBEP.

Max. PProfit:
rofit: `8,500/If ITC closes between `330 and `340 on expiry.

NO
TE
NOTE
TE:: Profit can be booked before expiry if ITC moves in favorable direction and time value decays.

For Private Circulation Only |

Exercise Date (F & O) :

30th. Apr 2015
Expected Payoff
Closing PPrice
rice
((`
`)

Expected
Profit/L
oss
rofit/Loss

312

(`1.50)

320

(`1.50)

328

`6.50

336

`5.50

344

`4.50

352

(`3.50)

Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/
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Weekly
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