,

2006

1 [ 2002]
,
, .
,
0,1, 0,2 0,1 .
,

. , ,
.
()
;
() (
), ;
() ,
0,1,
();

={ }
={ }
={ }
()

=()
, , .
P()=P(())=P(A)P(X)P()
=0,9*0,8*0,0,9=.
()

P( X ( X ))
,

P( X ( X )
P( X )
0,2
=
=
P ( X )
P( X ) 0,2 + 0,1 0,2 * 0,1
0,2
=
0,28

P( X ( X )) =

() (),

P( X ( X )) =

0,1
0,1
=
0,1 + 0,1 0,1* 0,1 0,19

2006

2 [ 2002]
() 60.0 /mm2
5.0 /mm2 .
(i)
50 75 /mm2;
(ii) 10
50 75 /mm2;
()
100 0,02.
(i)
1000 1100 ;
(ii) 1000 ,
;

() p
50 75 N/mm2.

75 60
50 60
) (
) = (3) (2)
5
5
= (3) (1 (2)) = 0,9987 1 + 0,9772

p = P(50 < X < 75) = (

= 0,9759

60 5.

50 75
n= 10 ()
p=0,9759

, ={0, 1, 2, 3, ,10},

10
P(Y = 10) = p10 (1 p )1010 = 1 * 0,975910 *1 = 0,975910
10
() 100
Bernoulli () p=0,02.

.
.
,

P ( X = 11) = p(1 p)111 = 0,02(0,98)10

1. ,
. ,
.
, ()

E(X ) =

2006

1
1
=
= 50
p 0,02

,
5 .
3 [ 2004]
.
,
.
,

0,3 0,7. ,
0,2, 0,4 0,4.
, ,
.
, , 70%.
.
() ;
() .
;

:
1={ }
2={ }
={ }
={ }
={ }
,
={ }.
() , P(). 1, 2
P()
,
P(E)=P(E1)P(1)+ P(E2)P(2)

P(1)=0,30
P(2)=0,70
P(E1) P(E2) .
, ,
(E1)

P(E1)= P((E1))P()+ P((E1))P()+ P((E1))P()
=P((E(1)) P()+ P((E(1))P()+ P((E(1))P()
=1(0,2)+0,7(0,4)+0(0,4)=0,48
(E2)

,
P(E2)=0,2

2006

P(E)= P(E1) P(1)+ P(E2) P(2)

P(E)=0,48*0,3+0,2*0,7=0,144+0,14=0,284
() P(A1E). Bayes,
P(A1E)= P(E1) P(1)/ P(E)
=0,48*0,3/0,284=0,144/0,284
4 [ 2004]
Poisson
1 4 .
() 8

2 ;

0,06.
() 4
.
() 4 .

=1/4=0,25
() 8
Poisson
t

( t ) 0
(0,25(8))0
= e 0, 25(8)
= e 2 = ...
0!
0!

P(X8=0)= e

P(X8>2)=1- P(X82)=1- (P(X8=0)+ P(X8=1)+ P(X8=2))

1
2
( t ) 0
t ( t )
t ( t )
= 1 (e
+e
+e
0
0!
1!
2!
( 2) 0
(2)1
( 2) 2
= 1 (e 2
+ e 2
+ e2
) = ...
0!
1!
2!
t

()
.
4 .
P({ 4 })=1-P({ 4 })
=1-0,94*0,94*0,94*0,94=.

( ).
()
={ 4 }
4

0={ 0 }
1={1 }
2={2 }
3={3 }
4={4 }
5={5 }

2006

6={6 }
.
0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6,

(1)0
= e 1 = ...
0!
(1)1
= e 1 = ...
P( 1)=P(X4=1)= e 1
1!
2
1 (1)
= 0,5e 1 = ...
P( 2)=P(X4=2)= e
2!
3
1 (1)
= (1 / 6)e 1 = ...
P( 3)=P(X4=3)= e
3!
(1)4
P( 4)=P(X4=4)= e 1
= (1 / 24)e 1 = ...
4!
P( 0)=P(X4=0)= e 1

P( ) .

P(E}=P(EA0)P(A0)+P(EA1)P(A1)+P(EA2)P(A2)+.......
P(A0), P(A1), P(A2), , P(EA0), P(EA1),
P(EA2)....... (),
P(EA0)=1
P(EA1)=0,94
P(EA2)=0,94*0,94
P(EA3)=0,94*0,94*0,94
..............
,
,
1-P(E)

2006

B
1 [ 2002]
() X 1 X 2 2 , s12 , s22
X 1 X 2 , ,

(n1 1) s12 + (n2 1)s22

n1 n2 , s =

n1 + n2 2
2
p

2 .
()

( Bq/g) :
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15

0.37 0.00 0.54 0.59 0.16 0.86 0.86 0.49 0.60 0.55
(Bq/g)
0.24 0.52 0.12 0.95 0.26 0.33 0.62 0.32 0.27 0.05 0.39 0.10 0.51 0.79 0.09
B
(Bq/g)


( 12 = 22 = 2 )
(i)
( 95% ).
(ii)
0.5Bq/g. 95%
?
?
(iii) 95%
.
[ (ii) (iii)
]

() s 2p 2 E( s 2p ) = 2 .

(n 1) s12 + (n2 1)s22 (n1 1)E(s12 ) + (n2 1)E(s22 ) (n1 1) 12 + (n2 1) 22

=
E(s 2p ) = E 1
=
n1 + n2 2
n1 + n2 2
n1 + n2 2

(n 1) 2 + (n2 1) 2
= 1
=2.
n1 + n2 2
() .. X 1 X 2

( 12 = 22 = 2 ). n1 = 10 , n2 = 15 .

2006

(i) ,
. (: x =

1 n
1 n 2

2
x
,
s
=
xi nx 2 )

i
n i =1
n 1 i =1

x1 = 0.502 , s12 = 0.07377 , s1 = 0.272

x2 = 0.371 , s22 = 0.06979 , s2 = 0.264 .
x1 = 0.502 x2 = 0.371
. 95%
(..)
, ..
, t1 / 2, n 1 student,
x t1a / 2, n1

s
().
n

, = 0.05 ,
student t0.975,9 = 2.26 95% ..

0.502 2.26

0.272
10

0.502 0.194

[0.308, 0.696].

t0.975,14 = 2.14
95% ..

0.371 2.14

0.264
15

0.371 0.146

[0.225, 0.517].

(
95%) 0.308 Bq/g 0.696 Bq/g
0.225 Bq/g 0.517 Bq/g .
(ii) .:
,
0.5 Bq/g 95% ..
,
.
.
.: ,

0 = 0.5 .
0 : = 0
1 : 0 [ ]
.. ,

x 0
~ t n1 ( ,
s n
.. ).
R = 0.05
t1 / 2, n 1 student : R = {t | | t |> t1 / 2, n1} .

t =

R = {t | | t |> 2.26} .

2006

0.502 0.5
t =
= 0.023 . t R 0.
0.272 / 10
R = {t | | t |> 2.14} .
0.371 0.5
t =
= 1.04 . t R 0.
0.264 / 15
0.5 Bq/g,

.
,
1 : < 0 , ,

R = t | t < t1 ,n 1 (

t student).

student.
(iii)

x1 x2 = 0.131

(n1 1) s12 + (n2 1) s22 9 0.07377 + 14 0.06979

s =
=
= 0.07135 .
23
n1 + n2 2
2
p

( ,
( - 1)
.: 95%
(..)
1 2 . ..
.
student
t0.975,23 = 2.07 . 95% ..

( x1 x2 ) t1a / 2,n + n 2 s p
1

1 1
+
n1 n2

()

0.131 2.06 0.267

1 1
+
10 15

0.131 0.226

[-0.094, 0.357].

.. 0, , 1 2
0,
( 95%).
.:
.
0 : 1 = 2 1 2 = 0
1 : 1 2 [ ]
student

( x1 x2 ) ( 1 2 ) = ( x1 x2 )
1 1
sp
+
n1 n2

1 1
sp
+
n1 n2

2006

~ tn1 + n2 2 .

( , .. )
R = 0.05
t0.975,23 = 2.07 student : R = {t | | t |> 2.07} .

0.131
= 0.201 . t R 0,
0.267 1/10 + 1/15
t
t =

.
( .. )
,
95%.
2 [ 2002]
10
0C .
()

1000 1050 1110 1220 1320 1380 1420 1560 1670 1950
32
29
36
38
43
53
52
63
73
100

()
( ( | X=x) = +x ).

.
() a b
( ).
() ,
0C 1500; 2200;

() X
Y
0C. .
120
100

y [in days]

80
60
40
20
0
800

1000

1200

1400 1600
x [in m]

1800

2000

2200

2006

0C.

0C
( ).
() n = 10 . :

x = 1368 y = 51.9

10

10

xi2 = 19511200

x y

i =1

i =1

= 767700

X
X Y :

s X2 =

1 n 2
1
xi nx 2 = 19511200 10 13682 = 88551.11

n 1 i =1
9

s XY =

1 n
xi yi n x
n 1 i =1

()

1
y = ( 767700 10 1368 51.9 ) = 6412 . ()
9

,
:

b=

s XY
6412
=
= 0.0724
2
s X 88551.11

()

a = y b x = 51.9 0.0724 1368 = 47.16

()

y = 47.16 + 0.0724 x .

()
1000 1950.
x0 = 1500 , y = 47.16 + 0.0724 1500 = 61.46
62 0C.
x0 = 2200
.
3 [ 2004]

5 8 10 3 4 10 7 32 9 7
() 5
.
()
.

()
3 4 5 7 7 8 9 10 10
:

xmin = 3

Q1 = 5

x = 7.5

Q3 = 10

32

xmax = 32

10

2006

Column Number

, (
).

10

15
20
Values

25

30

() , 32.
10
.
4 [ 2004]

. 200

. :
x = 14500 km,

s = 4000 km

() 95%
. 99%
.
() 10
3000 km. 90%
[
].

() n = 200 , x = 14500 km s = 4000 km. (1-)%

(..)

, z1 / 2
, x z a / 2

s
().
n

= 0.05
z0.975 = 1.96 95% ..

14500 1.96

4000
200

14500 554.36

4000
200

14500 728.55

[13945.69, 15054.36].

= 0.01
z0.995 = 2.58 99% ..

14500 2.58

[13771.45, 15228.55].

11

2006

99% ..
95%
, ()
.
() : 90% ..

2
. X

(n 1) s 2 (n 1)s 2

,
n21,1a / 2 n21, a / 2

().

= 0.1 X 2
2
2
0.05,199
= 167.36 0.95,199
= 232.91 (
100 ).
90% ..

199 40002 199 4000 2

,

167.36
232.91

[13670409.6, 19024743.5].

..
90% ..

[3697.4, 4361.7].
3000 km
10 .
.:
02 = 30002 = 9 106 .
0 : 2 = 02
1 : 2 02 [ ]

R = 0.1

X 2 : R = 2 | 2 < 167.36 2 > 232.91 .

 2 =

(n 1) s 2

02

199 40002
= 354 .
30002

( , .. )
 2 R 0 90%
() 3000 km
10
.
5 [ 2004]
...
.

ppb [parts per billion] .

12

2006

0.1

128 124 128 126 128 126 130 128 129 135

0.2

0.5

0.6

0.6

1.1

1.1

2.3

2.3

4.9

() .
.

.
() a b
( )

.
().

() (X: ,
)

Y:

136
134

y [in ppb]

132
130
128
126
124
0

2
3
x [in millions]

(
),
(
.. ,
).
n = 10 . :

x = 1.37 y = 128.2

10

xi2 = 38.03
i =1

10

yi2 = 164430
i =1

10

x y
i =1

= 1788.2

X Y
: ( )

s X2 =

1
38.03 10 1.37 2 = 2.140
9

sY2 =

1
164430 10 128.22 = 8.622
9

s XY =

s X = 2.140 = 1.46
sY = 8.622 = 2.94

1
(1788.2 10 1.37 128.2 ) = 3.54 .
9

13

2006

r=

3.54
= 0.82 .
1.46 2.94

(r < 0.9).
() X
Y .
:

b=

s XY
3.54
=
= 1.654
2
sX
2.140

()

a = y b x = 128.2 1.654 1.37 = 125.94

()

y = 125.94 + 1.654 x .

( X ), ..

y = 125.94 + 1.654 0.1 = 126.10

x = 0.1

y = 125.94 + 1.654 4.9 = 134.04

x = 4.9

X.
140

y [in ppb]

135

130

125

120
0

3
x [in millions]

14