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1297916433lafarge Surma Cement (March 4, 2010)
1297916433lafarge Surma Cement (March 4, 2010)
395 - 598
Current Price
442
575
Total Return
30%
Number of Shares MM
58.1
25,651.8
BDT MM
2008A
2009E
2010E
Revenue
6,211.9
7,618.9
8,391.7
Ops Income
2,183.5
2,552.3
2,811.2
Net Income
176.5
1,133.9
1,458.3
Margins
2008A
2009E
2010E
Gross Margin
40.2%
40.0%
40.0%
Operating Margin
35.2%
33.5%
33.5%
2.8%
14.9%
17.4%
2008A
2009E
2010E
10%
Net Margin
Growth
Revenue Growth
159%
23%
NM
542%
29%
Per Share
EPS
DPS
Book Value/Share
Cashflow BDT MM
2008A
3.04
0.00
59.00
2009E
19.53
0.00
78.53
2010E
25.11
0.00
103.64
2008A
2009E
2010E
Operating
1,229.5
956.1
2,409.5
409.2
359.1
356.9
.0
.0
.0
Valuation
2008A
2009E
2010E
Forward P/E
145.3x
22.6x
17.6x
Forward P/B
7.5x
5.6x
4.3x
ROE
5%
25%
24%
ROA
1%
6%
8%
ROIC
4%
9%
10%
Capex
Dividend
Misc BDT MM
Total Debt MM
2008A
2009E
2010E
12,788.1 12,570.5 10,080.1
69.5
373%
72%
Cash
Debt/Equity
Debt/Asset
700
449.0
276%
66%
11.1
167%
55%
500000
450000
600
400000
500
350000
300000
400
250000
300
200000
150000
200
100000
100
50000
Volume
Close
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Target Price: BDT 575
Lafarge Surma Cement Ltd. (LSCL) is an integrated cement manufacturing
company in Bangladesh. Lafarge Group of France, one of the world leaders in
building materials is the majority shareholder of LSCL.
Although LSCL competes with a large number of cement manufacturers in
the country, it has a few unique advantages. While all other manufacturers
import clinker, only LSCL has the capacity to manufacture clinker in-house
using limestone from a owned quarry. This provides the company the benefit
of significantly higher gross margins. Because of its affiliation with Lafarge
worldwide, LSCL is considered a leading brand in a competitive market, and
it enjoys price premium because of a perceived quality leadership. Lastly,
Lafarge has one of the largest production plant in the industry (1.2MT,
expandable to 1.5MT). In a fragmented industry where smaller producers are
being gradually squeezed out of the market, LSCL has the advantage of scale.
As and when consolidation starts in the market, LSCL stands prepared to
benefit because of its staying power.
LSCL recently experienced a setback in sourcing limestone from its quarry in
the Indian state of Meghalaya. The Supreme Court of India ordered a
suspension on mining at the quarry till a full hearing takes place on March
19, 2010. Till then LSCL has been operating with previously mined
limestone, which would last for about two more months.
Since the suspension was announced, LSCL shares prices fell significantly on
the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). Since early February when the suspension
order was made public, stock prices retraced by over 30%. We do not have a
view as to the outcome of the Indian Supreme Court hearing in March.
However, we assessed the upside from a favorable verdict and the downside
from a permanent ban on mining, and on balance we find LSCL is an
attractive stock at this price.
We initiate coverage of LSCL with an OUTPERFORM rating and a 12month target price of BDT 575. Our rating considers the upside from a
favorable verdict by the Indian Supreme Court. We also took into
account the sustainable advantages enjoyed by LSCL such as a price
premium enjoyed by the company, LSCLs potential for achieving top
and bottom line growth and an overall positive outlook for the
consumption of cement in the country, especially in the backdrop of
infrastructure investment. Our recommendation is based on a P/E of
20x an estimated 2011 EPS of BDT 30.23 and on a 4.5x estimated 2011
book value of BDT. 133.88. With no expectation for a dividend in the
immediate future, this target price implies an estimated total return of
30%.
Although on a balance we find Lafarge an attractive investment, we still draw
attention to the considerable risk associated with this stock. In case of a
permanent ban on mining, Lafarge would have to look for some costly
alternatives, and it may take a number of years for the company to return to
profitability. The company may be liable for restoration of forest land, and
the cost for such reclamation may be higher than the company's estimate.
Number of shares
34,184,935
5,387,400
5,797,000
1,755,000
1,595,710
9,348,630
58,068,675
Percentage
59%
9%
10%
3%
3%
16%
100%
The industry realized about 20% sales growth in 2009, mostly because of the latent demand from last years.
On a secular basis, ongoing demand growth is expected to be about 8%, The outlook for the cement industry
seems positive for a number of reasons. First, the government seems to be on a war footing to increase both
the amount and the efficiency of spending in social and physical infrastructure under the Annual
Development Programs (ADP). Second, the private sector is also energized because of certain tax advantages
for undeclared funds if they are invested in real estate. Third, a number of large infrastructure construction
projects (such as the Padma Bridge) are on the horizon. Both the government and the private sector are
soliciting funds for such projects. If implemented, these projects would significantly improve demand for
construction materials.
The largest 10 cement manufacturers hold about 70% of the market share. While Heidelberg, Holcim and
Lafarge are the leaders among multinational cement manufacturers; Shah, Akij and MI are the leading
domestic manufacturers. Shah cement is the market leader with close to 12% of the market share, closely
followed by Heidelberg with about 10% of the market share.
The company maintains a 40% D/E ratio by repaying current long-term debt and assuming new debt.
After paying off the debt from multilaterals, interest rates are slightly higher
Companys Interest expenses are significantly reduced as most of its debt are at floating rates,
With Rupee appreciating against Taka, there would be no translation loss or even may be a gain
Gross margin is maintained at the current 40% level
With an average of 8% growth each year, LSCL runs out of current capacity and goes for expansions in
2012 (to 1.5 MMT), in 2015 (to 1.8 MMT) and in in 2018 (to 2.0 MMT).
Under these assumptions, we conducted a comparative as well as a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation
using free cash flow to equity method (FCFE).
Lafarge valuation
2011 estimates
Multiple
Target price
EPS
30.23
20.0x
604.64
564.02
575.00
0
30%
Discounted FCF, MM
2009
2010
2011
BVPS
133.88
4.5x
602.45
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
956.1 2,409.5 2,165.2 2,640.3 3,607.9 4,114.0 4,619.5 5,020.1 5,405.4 5,803.4 6,229.1
6,688.4
Capital Expenditure
(359.1) (356.9) (354.8) (352.7) (876.4) (677.0) (458.1) (412.3) (411.0) (409.8) (408.6)
(407.4)
Change in Debt
Operating Cash
379.4 (437.8)
309.4
.0
.0
.0
.0
6,281.0
96,906.9
Terminal Value
96,906.9
2,485.0
Terminal liabilities
379.4 (437.8)
FCFE
Discount Rate
Terminal Growth Rate
NPV
NPV/Share
309.4
15%
8%
28,162.1
484.98
Based on the valuation, our 12-month target price in BDT 575.00, which implies a price of 20x 2011 earning
of BDT 30.23. This target also implies a 4.5x 2011 BVPS of BDT 133.88. This price target, if achieved, will
provide a 12-month price-return of 30%.
Based on the valuation based on these assumptions, our 12-month target price in BDT 350.00, which implies
a price of 18.0x 2012 earning of BDT 18.81. This target also implies a 3.0x 2012 BVPS of BDT 128.89. This
price target, if achieved, will provide a 12-month negative return of 21%.
Lafarge valuation
2012 estimates
Multiple
Target price
EPS
18.81
18.0x
338.56
362.62
350.00
0
-21%
BVPS
128.89
3.0x
386.68
Income Statement
MM BDT
2006
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2011E
Revenue
COGS
153.2
(111.3)
2,399.9
(2,532.4)
6,211.9
(3,712.6)
7,618.9
(4,571.3)
8,391.7
(5,035.0)
9,263.9
(5,512.0)
Gross profit/loss
General and admin
Selling and distribution
41.9
(164.7)
(36.6)
(132.6)
(263.9)
(108.5)
2,499.3
(362.0)
(131.6)
3,047.6
(380.9)
(114.3)
3,356.7
(419.6)
(125.9)
3,751.9
(463.2)
(139.0)
Total expenses
Other operating income
(201.4)
.0
(372.4)
160.6
(493.6)
177.8
(495.2)
.0
(545.5)
.0
(602.2)
.0
Operating profit/loss
Exchange gain/loss
Finance expenses
Interest income
Other expenses/ (income)
Worker's welfare fund
(159.5)
(363.1)
(163.7)
.5
.3
.0
(344.4)
110.1
(1,138.3)
.9
(6.2)
.0
2,183.5
(331.8)
(1,224.5)
.6
(94.5)
(49.5)
2,552.3
.0
(852.3)
5.2
.0
(85.3)
2,811.2
.0
(622.9)
4.6
.0
(109.6)
3,149.7
.0
(513.1)
3.3
.0
(132.0)
(685.4)
(123.0)
(1,377.8)
281.2
483.9
(307.3)
1,619.9
(486.0)
2,083.3
(625.0)
2,507.9
(752.4)
(808.4)
(1,096.5)
176.5
1,133.9
1,458.3
1,755.5
Number of shares MM
EPS
58.1
58.1
58.1
58.1
58.1
58.1
-13.92
-18.88
3.04
19.53
25.11
30.23
2006
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2011E
1,133.9
459.7
(637.5)
1,458.3
456.5
494.7
1,755.5
453.3
(43.6)
956.1
2,409.5
2,165.2
.0
(359.1)
.0
(356.9)
.0
(354.8)
(359.1)
(356.9)
(354.8)
(217.6)
.0
(2,490.4)
.0
(1,501.1)
.0
(359.1)
(356.9)
(354.8)
(945.6)
(1,157.9)
1,229.5
(2,268.4)
(629.6)
(272.5)
(2,268.4)
(629.6)
(272.5)
.0
.8
(2.4)
.0
.0
.0
(1,064.1)
11.8
39.9
379.4
(437.8)
309.4
1,082.0
17.9
29.6
69.5
449.0
11.1
17.9
29.6
69.5
449.0
11.1
320.5
(16.28)
(19.94)
21.17
16.47
41.49
37.29
Balance Sheet
MM BDT
2006
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2011E
Current assets
Inventories
Trade receivables
Advances, deposits & prepayments
Derivative instruments-assets
Cash and cash equivalents
990.0
44.6
669.4
.0
17.9
851.0
56.5
727.6
.0
29.6
1,092.2
640.6
701.6
2.0
69.5
2,057.1
761.9
687.6
2.0
449.0
1,678.3
839.2
687.6
2.0
11.1
1,852.8
926.4
687.6
2.0
320.5
1,721.7
1,664.7
2,506.0
3,957.5
3,218.2
3,789.3
15,378.0
17.9
.0
15,446.3
225.6
393.8
14,961.8
217.3
81.8
14,872.0
206.5
81.8
14,782.8
196.2
81.8
14,694.1
186.3
81.8
15,395.8
17,117.5
16,065.6
17,730.3
15,260.9
17,766.9
15,160.2
19,117.8
15,060.7
18,278.9
14,962.2
18,751.4
579.4
304.8
.0
907.8
1,439.9
1.3
341.8
408.6
4.3
880.9
1,836.7
2,883.7
7.5
843.4
626.7
79.7
1,717.6
1,628.0
3,037.6
2.6
1,142.8
761.9
79.7
1,067.5
1,628.0
4,037.6
2.6
1,258.8
839.2
79.7
1,117.5
407.0
3,835.7
2.6
1,389.6
926.4
79.7
1,117.5
407.0
3,452.1
2.6
3,233.1
6,363.6
7,935.7
8,720.1
7,540.4
7,374.9
9,682.4
.0
121.7
8,112.8
.0
.0
6,404.9
.0
.0
5,837.4
.0
.0
4,720.0
.0
.0
3,602.5
.0
.0
9,804.1
8,112.8
6,404.9
5,837.4
4,720.0
3,602.5
5,806.9
(1,839.9)
112.9
5,806.9
(2,708.4)
154.9
5,806.9
(2,531.9)
150.9
5,806.9
(1,398.0)
150.9
5,806.9
60.3
150.9
5,806.9
1,815.9
150.9
4,079.9
.4
3,253.4
.5
3,425.9
.4
4,559.8
.4
6,018.1
.4
7,773.7
.4
4,080.3
17,117.5
3,253.9
17,730.3
3,426.3
17,766.9
4,560.2
19,117.8
6,018.5
18,278.9
7,774.1
18,751.4
Indicators
Indicators
Grey cement
Capacity '000 MT
Sales '000 MT
Capacity utilization
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
1,500
335
22%
1,200
748
62%
1,200
900
75%
1,200
990
83%
1,200
1,089
91%
1,200
1,198
100%
Clinker
Capacity '000 MT
Sales '000 MT
Capacity utilization
1,150
927
81%
1,150
651
57%
1,150
550
90%
1,150
490
98%
1,150
424
98%
1,150
351
98%
Sales growth
Earning growth
NM
NM
159%
NM
23%
542%
10%
29%
10%
20%
11%
17%
NM
40%
40%
40%
41%
41%
Operating margin
NM
35%
34%
34%
34%
34%
Net margin
NM
3%
15%
17%
19%
20%
13,714.1
421%
12,788.1
373%
12,570.5
276%
10,080.1
167%
8,579.1
110%
6,426.0
65%
20%
64%
30%
30%
30%
30%
58.1
-18.88x
0.00x
0%
-34%
-6%
56.04
58.1
3.04x
0.00x
0%
5%
1%
59.00
58.1
19.53x
0.00x
0%
25%
6%
78.53
58.1
25.11x
0.00x
0%
24%
8%
103.64
58.1
30.23x
0.00x
0%
23%
9%
133.88
58.1
35.27x
0.00x
0%
21%
11%
169.15
amin@bracepl.com
01730317802
Research Analyst
monirul@bracepl.com
01730357150
Research Analyst
parvez@bracepl.com
01730357154
Ali Imam
Investment Analyst
imam@bracepl.com
01730357153
Asif Khan
Investment Analyst
asif@bracepl.com
01730357158
Research Associate
ashfaque@bracepl.com
01671020956
Research Associate
safwan@bracepl.com
01911420549