Professional Documents
Culture Documents
DANIEL DAIANU
SOUTHEAST EUROPE
AND THE WORLD WE LIVE IN
DIANU, DANIEL
Southeast Europe and the world we live in /Daniel
Dianu. Bucureti: Editura Academiei Romne, 2008
ISBN 978-973-27-1628-1
821.135.1-92=111
070(73) Southeast EuropeTimes (0:82-92) 2002/2007
CONTENTS
Foreword by Armando Marques Guedes ........................................
Preface by Franz Lothar Altmann ...................................................
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Introduction ...................................................................................
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62
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107
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135
139
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FOREWORD
It is rare that the scope of books written by economists
ranges beyond the technicalities of their often very specialized
subject-matter. In this one, however, it certainly does and in a
manner which is most welcome. It fills a gap. Professor Daniel
Daianu is not only a researcher internationally recognized for his
academic excellence; he is also, as a former Minister of Finance
and a high level advisor, a seasoned practitioner. In this collection
of newspaper articles published in the Southeast European Times
a collection now for the first time aggregated in one volume
Dr. Daianu manages with ease, depth, readability, and intellectual
panache to go well beyond the usual limits which afflict specialists.
Here is a set of papers that throw a bright light both on the
political background and consequences of a thickening mesh of
economic and political interdependence in a Southeastern Europe
which was for far too long led astray from the central role that it
can and should and surely will fulfill in the process of regional
cohesion, an unfolding project that simultaneously marches toward
global integration, and does so while guaranteeing a careful
balance between human dignity and rising standards of life.
Professor Daianu is the paladin of an erudite version of that
project. Carrying it out will not be an easy task in an Eastern
Mediterranean that has been in a less complex neighborhood.
Mapping issues, and touching upon the ongoing successful
experiences of Romania and Bulgaria, Daniel Daianu craftly
designs paths to guide his part of our common world, in a manner
which is both democratically and economically enriching, towards
an achievement of these results. This is economics that is, choice
at its best.
Armando Marques Guedes
Professor, Faculty of Law of the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal
President of the Portuguese Instituto Diplomtico
PREFACE
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INTRODUCTION
Dr. Marta Muco, whom I had known for years as a keen observer of
economic developments in the Balkans, whether I would like to write for
Balkan Times (currently Southeast European Times/SETIMES).
I accepted and this decision was the start of five years of collaboration.
I used this opportunity to write monthly columns in SETIMES where
I shared thoughts on various economic and political issues that concern
Southeast Europe and, in a wider context, Europe as a whole. Over time
I realized that the range of topics I have dealt with provides the skeleton
and the flesh for a structured way of looking at Southeast Europe, for
examining the broader picture. When the Romanian Diplomatic Institute
(RDI) invited me to come up with a personal contribution to a new series
of publications I seized the chance to bring all these pieces together.
Professor Vlad Nistor, the General Director of the Institute, and Dr. Radu
Dudau, the Director of Research of the RDI, have made it possible and
I am grateful to them for their encouragement and support. I also thank
Ms. Alina Bacanu for the kind assistance in preparing the manuscript for
publication. SETIMES is thanked for the permission to reproduce the
articles which I wrote during 2002-2007. The name of this volume might
strike a resemblance note with Will Huttons The World WeRe In; this
was not intended.
Daniel Daianu
Acknowledgements. I should start with what lies at the very origin of this
collection of articles. After my stint as a high public servant in the
Romanian Government (1997-1998) I was invited to teach in the USA,
first at Berkeley, and next, at the UCLA. While being there I was asked by
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PART I
THE WORLD WE LIVE IN
and the IFIs have often championed it. The way the IMF
pushed emerging countries into opening their capital
accounts during the 90s is a glamorous illustration of this
approach. Another example is the way energy markets were
"liberalised" in emerging economies without proper
regulations, which should protect consumers. This paradigm
has retreated somewhat in recent years, following
disappointing economic performances around the world and
the nefarious functioning of financial markets. But its
resilience is powerful and visible even in how it shapes the
language used by the media.
Globalisation can be understood in a different vein,
which looks at the functioning of real markets - with their
pros and cons and which takes into account insights of
advanced economic theory such as informational
asymmetries, increasing returns (while technological
progress is intense), agglomeration effects (clusters),
multiple (bad) equilibria, the role of economic geography,
and so on. The salient lessons are obvious: the need for
effective regulation of markets; the role of the state in
providing public goods; the role of institutions (structures of
governance); the need of public goods and good governance
in the world economy; the importance of variety and policy
ownership in policy-making. To some, this interpretation
may sow seeds of confusion. But, in this way, one can dispel
a biased interpretation of globalisation. Moreover,
globalisation would no longer be assigned an ideological
mantra and one-sided policy implications. Instead, it
becomes an open-ended concept, which purports to define
the mutual "opening" of societies, under the impetus of
technological change and the manifold quest for economic
progress. Moreover, it rids itself of a perceived Westcentered origin. Such an unconstrained interpretation of
globalisation would have major repercussions for national
public policies and international politics.
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IS "UNCONVENTIONAL" ECONOMICS
STAGING A COMEBACK?
For a keen observer of macroeconomic policy
dynamics worldwide, a sequence of developments provides
much room for reflection. Let's consider facts. Interest rates
in the United States have reached the lowest level in almost
40 years, with the federal rate reaching 1.25 per cent lately.
The justification for this sharp decline (from the level of a
couple of years ago) is the need to avoid a prolonged
26
recession after the burst of the stock market "bubble" and the
demise of the so-called "new economy". Otherwise said,
monetary policy is seen as a weapon for preventing
aggregate demand from falling too much. Moreover, a
member of the Federal Reserve System board, Ben
Bernanke, made a stunning statement a while ago: against
the narrowing down room of maneuver, following the very
low level of interest rates, the Federal Reserve System would
be ready to intervene to buy US Treasuries as a means of
injecting liquidity into the economy. In IMF terminology this
would be money printing strongly discouraged by IFIs
throughout the world in order to combat inflation.
In Japan, where deflation has gripped the economy and
interest rates have decreased to practically zero for years
now, some reason along similar lines. They envisage
defeating what Keynes, probably the most influential
economist of the 20th century, called the liquidity trap; they
contemplate the Bank of Japan resorting to inflation-creation
via money printing by buying government bonds as a
means of reviving consumption and thereby steering the
economy out of its long stagnation. The European Central
Bank, too, seems to be giving up its ultra-orthodox stance
and cautiousness regarding the persistent sluggishness of the
European economy. Recently, the ECB cut its key rate to 2.5
per cent; other cuts are expected this year.
The rate cut of the ECB has occurred at a time when
the strictures of the Financial Stability Pact are taking a
severe toll on some of the largest European economies,
which can hardly cope with the 3 per cent budget deficit
limit. Consequently, there is some talk of reviewing and
possibly adapting the Pact to the reality of slow economic
motion in the EU. One can detect here the attempt to
combine a more relaxed monetary policy with a budget
stimulus for the sake of stimulating economic activity. This,
basically, is the logic of Keynesian economics, which says
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frantic search for new fields will be ushered in; oil and gas
will be seen even more as highly strategic commodities and
major economies will define external policies accordingly. It
is highly probable that the needs of industries to be more
competitive will collide with ecological concerns at a time
when the effects of global warming are ever more visible and
worrying.
Higher oil and gas prices slow down growth and lead
to higher core inflation. Hence, major trade-offs for both
firms and governments emerge, requiring policy clarity and
thorough calculations of costs and benefits. A new thrust for
energy conservation is to be expected under the new
circumstances. Private and public budgets will be
increasingly strained unless measures are enacted soon and
implemented consistently over time.
Setimes 3.01.2006
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PART II
WHICH WAY GOES
THE EUROPEAN UNION
EU REFERENDA COMPLICATE
ACCESSION PROSPECTS
The results of the referendums in France and Holland
have demonstrated the depth of socioeconomic and political
currents which have been present in a number of EU
countries for years now. Many citizens are frustrated about
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LESSONS OF EU ACCESSION
"Enlargement fatigue" in the EU has been a topic of
discussion for some time, even before the proposed
constitutional treaty went down in a stunning defeat in
France and The Netherlands. Some argue that the last wave
of expansion, with ten new members joining overnight, has
already stretched the bloc almost as far as it can currently go
the malaise in some of the bloc's older members, they
argue, signals a need for consolidation. But while a malaise
undoubtedly exists, it could be argued that the fundamental
problems have little to do with enlargement, and to speak of
enlargement fatigue is to misrepresent the basic issue.
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PART III
ROMANIAS JOURNEY TO THE EU
such as the IMF and the World Bank, for this is a matter of
utmost importance for the economy.
Setimes 3.03.2003
PART IV
THE BALKANS AND THE EU
Setimes 12.03.2007
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ECONOMIC RECONSTRUCTION:
THE ROLE OF EUROPEAN AID
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CONFLICTING PERCEPTIONS
AND ECONOMIC CHALLENGES
An apparent clash of social, political and economic
dynamics can puzzle attentive observers of the Western
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EU CONSTITUTIONAL DISPUTES
AND SOUTHEAST EUROPE
Disappointment with December's failed EU summit in
Brussels convened in order to validate the first EU
constitution was apparent in many European circles.
Bitterness not only stemmed from the inability to solve the
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voting rights issue, but also from the image that EU member
countries are seen as projecting to the world.
The key issue wasn't the dispute over the respective
provisions, which may have to change in view of evolving
circumstances. Rather, it concerned the lack of a rule for
changing rules, when the older mandates are no longer
appropriate. Crises have erupted before in the history of the
Union over the past decades, so it may be incorrect to
overestimate the significance of this one. Current conditions
may have made it unavoidable. The stakes which member
countries have in forging ahead with the Union are high
enough that compromises are likely to be found. The power
distribution issue does not pit heavyweights against other
heavyweights at least on the surface.
Much more complicated is the issue of which direction
the Union should take with regard to further political and
policy integration. And here the existence of dissimilar
visions is highly visible. This is why the talk about a variable
geometry in the making is quite meaningful. Variable
geometry is not something new and bits of it already exist in
the monetary domain, in the form of two groups of countries:
those which adopted the common currency and those which
didn't. What degree of variable geometry can the Union bear
without irreparable damage? That is a crucial question. How
the debate on the EU constitution evolves has significant
implications for Southeast Europe for Bulgaria and
Romania, which are slated to join the Union in 2007, and for
the Western Balkan countries, which hope to join eventually.
A scenario can be imagined in which compromises are
found in the not too distant future and the EU constitution
swings into operation under good auspices. This would take
place against the backdrop of a quickening economic
recovery all over the EU area while the first wave of
accession proceeds smoothly. As a result, prospects of
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the recent past, one could sense a more forceful march in the
right direction. The attraction of joining the EU, though a
distant goal, played a decisive role. Good economic signs
multiplied: inflation was coming down dramatically all over
the region and, more importantly, economic growth was
picking up strongly.
The referendum in Montenegro captured the attention
of many European chancelleries. Some hailed it, while others
were cautious. Would it help find a solution to the Kosovo
issue? Would it put other forces into motion that would
enhance the quest for EU accession in the region? These are
questions that automatically come to mind.
The banking sectors in the region were being cleaned
up and able, after a long time, to fund growth via investment
and consumption credits. Intra-regional trade started to grow,
as local politicians acknowledged that Chinese walls do not
make sense for their small economies. Domestic politics
strengthened the hand of democratic forces.
What about the situation now? Economic data, at least
on the surface, do not indicate a worsening of the overall
state of affairs. Economic growth has continued, apparently
unabated. During 2005, the rise in GDP was 5 per cent in the
Western Balkans, except in Macedonia (where it was 3.5 per
cent). Inflation has been in the single digits, at the very low
end of the range except in Serbia, where it stood at over 16
per cent in 2005. And the strengthening of banking sectors
has continued, owing to the enforcement of better prudential
regulations and the inroads made by Austrian, Greek and
Italian banks.
However, there are areas where the data looks less
bright, illustrating an eye-catching variety of circumstances.
Aid addiction has not diminished in BosniaHerzegovina (BiH), where the current account deficit totaled
almost a fourth of GDP, while FDI amounted to less than 4
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ECONOMIC, POLITICAL,
AND INSTITUTIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED FOR COUNTRIES JOINING THE EU
Two countries in Southeast Europe Romania and
Bulgaria are expected to join the Union on 1 January 2007.
Another, Croatia, is likely to be put on a faster track. Despite
worries about the EU's commitment to the enlargement
process, the Balkan countries still appear to be moving closer
to their accession goals. Assuming that remains the case, it
will be up to regional governments to make the necessary
economic, institutional and political adjustments. Let us
consider, for instance, the implications for economic policy.
To begin with, it is important to distinguish between a
"functioning market economy" and one that has the capacity
to absorb shocks in a highly competitive environment, as is
the case with the Union. Moreover, economic competitiveness
must be understood in a profounder sense. Joining the
European club demands compliance with a set of rules that
dent traditional policy prerogatives. For instance, free capital
movement (liberalisation of the capital account) is a must in
the EU, whereas a premature opening is dangerous.
Likewise, new entrants are bound to enter the eurozone
sooner or later. An economy that is not competitive enough
would have a very hard time inside the single currency area.
It is imperative for countries joining the EU to have
key institutions and mechanisms in place: a financial
intermediation sector and an independent central bank, a
substantial private sector where property rights are clearly
defined and protected, a functioning judiciary and
enforceable laws. Being able to fight corruption and
organised crime effectively is also a prerequisite.
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REFERENCES
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