MBB 27102011 TLS

a
NGN HNG THNG MI C PHN QUN I (MB)

BankingTeam
Nguyn Quang Huy
Email: huy.nguyenquang@tls.vn
V Phng Hnh
Email: hanh.vuphuong@tls.vn
Trn Th Thanh Tho
Email: thao.tranthithanh@tls.vn
kin phn tch:
Gi mc tiu: 16,800 VND
CH S TI CHNH (T VND)
TTS
2,010
2011F
2012F
109,623
125,203
147,942
VCSH
8,882
13,480
15,427
NII
3,519
4,734
5,167
LNST
1,770
1,939
2,449
EPS
2,391
1,939
2,129
PE
7.10
6.69
7.50
PB
1.15
1.07
T l n xu
1.35%
1.90%
1.70%
LDR
74.2%
74.8%
72.9%
Cho vay/ TTS
44.5%
46.8%
45.5%
TS sinh li/TTS
Tng trng huy
ng KH
90.1%
91.1%
91.6%
64.4%
19.0%
18.0%
Tng trng TD
64.9%
20.0%
15.0%
NIM
4.30%
4.45%
4.14%
ROAA
1.95%
1.65%
1.79%
ROEA
22.1%
17.3%
15.9%
15%
15%
C tc TM (%)
1.18
Ngn hng TMCP Qun i l mt trong nhng ngn hng TMCP pht trin nhanh v
hiu qu ln nht trong h thng cc ngn hng ti Vit Nam, th hin cc ch tiu tng
trng cng nh cc ch tiu v li nhun ROAA, ROAE. MB c k hoch nim yt c
phiu v tng VL ln 10,000 t ng trong nm 2011, EPS theo chng ti d phng
trong nm 2011 mc thn trng l 2,660 VND (trn VL u nm). Chng ti d kin
gi mc tiu ca c phiu MB sau khi nim yt s mc 16,800VND/CP v sau khi tng
VL s mc khong 15,500 VND/CP.
M T DOANH NGHIP
Ngn hng thng mi c phn Qun i thnh lp nm 1994, v hin l mt trong
nhng ngn hng ng u trong nhm ngn hng TMCP. Vn iu l tnh n cui nm
2010 l 7,300 t VND, tng 37.7% so vi 2009. Tng thu nhp hot ng nm 2010 ngn
hng t 4,088 t VND, tng 54% so vi nm 2009. Thu nhp li thun l 3,519 t VND
(tng 91.5%), thu nhp rng hot ng dch v 588.84 t VND (tng 54.7%). Tng ti
sn ca ngn hng tnh n 2010 t 109,623 t VND, tng 58.8% so vi 2009. D n tn
dng v huy ng 2010 t 48,797 t VND v 65,741 t VND, tng ng chim th phn
2.5% v tn dng v 3.3% th phn huy ng.
CP NHT
Kt qu hot ng trong 1H2011 kh quan: Tng trng d n hp nht ca MB
t khong 10.9%, tng trng huy ng hp nht ca khchhng t 10.6%, t l
tn dng phi sn xut mc 17% tng d n.
n thi im 31/8/2011 t l n xu ca ring ngn hng MB tng nh ln mc
1.66%. MB cng thnh lp thm 23 im giao dch k t u nm, nng tng s
dim giao dch ca MB ln 163 im.
IM NHN U T
V th ca MB: . MB l mt trong mi ngn hng c tng ti sn ln nht VN.
L ngn hng c tc tng trng cao trong nhng nm gn y: th hin
cc ch tiu kinh doanh nh tng trng tng ti sn, tng trng tn dng, huy
ng, tng trng vn iu l v vn ch s hu, n cc ch tiu tng trng thu
nhp li, tng trng thu nhp ph, tng trng li nhun trc thu. Trong giai on
2007-2010, cc ch s trn tng trng trung bnh mc trn 50%/nm.
Hiu qu kinh doanh th hin qua cc ch tiu ti chnh: Tng trng ROE, ROA
thc s hp dn. ROAE v ROAA ca ngn hng trong nm 2010 t ln lt l
22.13% v 1.95%, nm trong nhm cc NH ng u v ch s hiu qu. Ngoi ra cc
ch s NIM, CIR, ca MB cng c nh gi cao trong h thng ngn hng.
MB ch trng cng tc qun tr ri ro v tim nng tng trng tn dng ca
MB cn ln. Cui nm 2010 CAR ca MB mc an ton so vi quy nh ti thiu ca
NHNN, mc 11.6%. T l cho vay khch hng trn tin gi khch hng mc thp
so vi cc NHTM khc. Cui nm 2010, LDR mc 74%.
NH GI
Cn c vo k hoch trong nm 2011 v kt qu kinh doanh thc t ca ngn hng trong
na u nm 2011, chng ti xy dng m hnh nh gi P/E v P/B v d bo gi ca c
phiu MB sau khi nim yt s vo khong 15,800 17,800 VND.
RI RO
Ri ro v m: Ngnh ngn hng ni chung v ngn hng Qun i ni ring chu nhng
ri ro n t chnh sch v m. Cc chnh sch ny c th nh hng ng k n hot
ng tn dng v huy ng ca ngn hng, do nh hng ng k n li nhun.
Cnh tranh gay gt trong ngnh: Nhm ngn hng TMCP khng ch cnh tranh vi
cc ngn hng ni a c tng ti sn ln, m cn cnh tranh vi nhm cc ngn hng
nc ngoi c nhiu kinh nghim v qun l, iu hnh.
Ri ro pha long gi c phiu: Cng vi k hoch tng vn iu l kh mnh ln
10,000 t ng trong nm nay v trin vng kinh doanh ca ngnh trong iu kin tht
cht tin t c th nh hng n tng trng thu nhp, ri ro t pha long gi c phiu
l kh trnh khi.
15%
Ngun: TLS tng hp
TLS Vietnam: 98 Nguy Nhu KonTum

Thanh xuan, Hanoi, Vietnam
Website: www.tls.vn
Bloomberg : TLSV<GO>
Sales & Trading - Hanoi

Nguyen Viet Dzung
E: Dzung.NguyenViet@tls.vn
Sales & Trading - HCMC

Trn Th Hu Phng
E: Phuong.TranThiHue@tls.vn
TNG HP TI CHNH
Bo co KQKD (t ng)
2010
2011F
2012F
2013F
Tng trng (%)
2010
2011F
2012F
2013F
Thu nhp li
8,766
13,256
14,394
16,427
T.trng h. ng
64.4%
19.0%
18.0%
21.0%
(5,247)
(8,521)
(9,226)
(10,385)
T. trng tn dng
64.9%
20.0%
15.0%
20.0%
3,519
4,734
5,167
6,042
T. trng n xu
31.1%
50.0%
12.0%
16.0%
736
846
1,057
1,322
T.trng VCSH
29.0%
51.8%
14.4%
19.9%
Chi ph dch v
(147)
(170)
(223)
(301)
T.trng Tng TS
58.9%
14.2%
18.2%
19.4%
Li thun H CK
(236)
(9)
88
109
T.trng CP H
59.9%
46.5%
29.3%
15.0%
T.trng Li rng
59.4%
11.1%
26.3%
28.1%
Chi ph li
Thu nhp li thun
Thu nhp H dch v
Li/l H u t
Thu nhp t H khc
Thu nhp t H LD
(49)
24
53
303
257
283
91
77
119
167
D phng u t
(420)
130
90
Chi ph hot ng
(1,254)
(1,836)
(2,374)
(2,730)
2,834
3,310
4,124
4,953
LN (trc d phng)
EPS ( trn VL cui nm)
2,391
1,939
2,129
2,272
C tc
16.3%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
BVPS
12,168
13,480
13,415
13,399
Chi ph d phng
(521)
(785)
(818)
(727)
LNTT
2,288
2,526
3,306
4,226
Chi nhnh
140
175
210
250
Chi ph thu TN DN
(551)
(628)
(810)
(1,035)
Nhn vin
3,269
3600
3950
4500
Li nhun sau thu
1,737
1,898
2,496
3,190
Li ch thiu s
33
41
(48)
(55)
Li nhun rng
1,770
1,939
2,449
3,136
PE
7.10
6.69
7.50
8.50
Bng CKT (t ng)
PB
1.15
1.07
1.18
1.30
2010
2011F
2012F
2013F
11.60%
13.00%
12.50%
12.0%
1.35%
1.90%
1.70%
1.4%
2010
2011F
2012F
2013F
Tin mt, vng bc
869
968
1,042
1,044
Tin gi ti NHNN
746
1,134
1,246
1,508
33,652
37,017
45,161
54,419
1,690
1,652
2,317
2,848
Tin gi ti cc TCTD
CK kinh doanh
Cng c phi sinh
Cht lng ti sn
CAR
t l n xu
48,797
58,548
67,324
80,781
D phng n xu/n xu
D phng RR cho vay
(738)
(1,523)
(2,341)
(3,068)
Chng khon u t
17,140
19,241
24,124
28,968
1,224
1,595
1,835
2,110
Cho vay khch hng
Ti sn v thit b
Ti sn di hn khc
Bt ng sn u t
131
150
173
199
6,113
6,419
7,061
7,767
109,623
125,203
147,942
176,575
8,769
614
1,565
1,722
Deposits to banks
16,917
21,992
24,191
27,819
Tin gi khch hng
65,741
78,232
92,313
111,699
Ti sn C khc
Tng Ti sn
N v phi tr NHNN
Cng c phi sinh

Vn ti tr y thc
D phng n xu/ cho vay
1.5%
2.6%
3.5%
3.8%
120.4%
120.0%
125.0%
130.0%
N xu/ VCSH
6.90%
8.50%
7.40%
7.0%
Ch s BCKT
2010
2011F
2012F
2013F
Cho vay KH/huy ng KH
74.2%
74.8%
72.9%
72.3%
Cho vay KH/ti sn
44.5%
46.8%
45.5%
45.7%
CK u t/ti sn
14.2%
13.9%
14.8%
14.8%
huy ng KH/ tng huy ng
67.8%
73.8%
73.4%
74.6%
0.50
0.59
0.54
0.51
Vay LNH / Gi LNH

VCSH/ TTS
Ti sn sinh lii/TTS
10.8%
10.4%
10.5%
91.1%
91.6%
92.3%
117
178
194
214
2010
2011F
2012F
2013F
5,411
5,059
7,588
8,347
NIM
4.30%
4.45%
4.14%
4.05%
Cc khon n khc
2,928
4,831
5,798
7,363
TN li rng/ tng TN
86.1%
85.0%
79.5%
78.6%
Tng n phi tr
99,882
110,905
131,650
157,165
14.40%
12.15%
12.84%
13.3%
Vn ch s hu
8,882
13,480
15,427
18,491
Chi ph H/Tng thu nhp
30.7%
33.0%
36.5%
35.5%
Vn iu l
7,300
10,000
11,500
13,800
Chi ph d phng/ Cho vay KH
1.1%
1.3%
1.2%
0.9%
Qu ca TCTD
801
801
801
801
2010
2011F
2012F
2013F
LN cha phn phi
781
2,679
3,126
3,890
ROAA
1.95%
1.65%
1.79%
1.93%
Li ch ca CTS
859
817
865
920
ROAE
22.1%
17.3%
15.9%
17.0%
109,623
125,203
147,942
176,575
Tng n v vn CSH

Website: www.tls.vn
Doanh thu, chi ph
8.1%
90.1%
PH giy t c gi
Vn khc
124
Ph / Tng TN
Ngun: TLS

Nguyen Viet Dzung

Trn Th Hu Phng
IM NHN U T
V th ca MB trn th trng ti chnh.
Ch tiu
Tng ti sn
Vn iu l
VCSH
Tng d n
Tng huy ng
LNST
EIB
131,110
10,560
13,510
62,345
89,530
1,814
STB
152,560
9,179
13,983
83,042
80,528
1,905
ACB
205,102
9,376
11,375
87,195
106,936
2,334
VCB
307,496
13,223
20,669
176,972
210,339
4,235
CTG
367,712
15,172
18,170
238,494
214,826
3,414
HBB
37,987
3,000
3,533
18,704
16,322
476
SHB
51,032
3,497
4,183
24,375
25,633
494
MB
109,623
7,300
8,882
48,797
65,741
1,745
Ngun: BCTC 2010 cc NH

n thi im cui 2010, MB nm trong danh sch 10 ngn hng c tng ti sn ln
nht trn th trng ti chnh Vit Nam. Tuy nhin xt trn quy m ti sn ca cc ngn
hng nim yt, MB v tr trung bnh so vi cc ngn hng nhm TMCP c so snh. C
th, tng ti sn ca MB cao hn ng k so vi HBB, SHB tuy nhin vn thp hn VCB,
CTG, ACB, STB, EIB. Tuy nhin vi tc tng trng cao nhiu ch tiu, khong cch
gia MB v cc NHTM hng u trn th trng ti chnh ang dn c thu hp.
Cc ch tiu kinh doanh tng trng mc cao
Chng ti tng hp mt s ch tiu chnh trong bng cn i k ton v bo co thu nhp
trong gia on 2007-2010. MB t c tc tng trng mnh v n nh qua cc
nm. c bit trong giai on ny nn kinh t Vit Nam phi i mt vi hai ln chnh
sch tin t tht cht mnh m vo cui nm 2008 v 2010, nh hng mnh m n cc
hot ng kinh t ni chung v hot ng kinh doanh ca khi ngn hng ni ring. Tuy
nhin cc ch tiu chnh ca MB u c tc tng trng hng nm ln hn 50%.
Ch tiu
2007
2008
2009
2010
1H2011
CAGR 2007-2010
TTS
29,624
44,346
69,008
109,623
115,182
54.68%
Cho vay khch hng
11,613
15,740
29,588
48,797
54,100
61.37%
Tng huy ng
26,074
39,669
61,513
99,882
104,852
56.47%
Huy ng khch hng
17,785
27,163
39,978
65,741
72,685
54.62%
VL
2,000
3,400
5,300
7,300
7,300
53.97%
Tng thu nhp H
1,054
1,638
2,654
4,088
2,315
57.10%
Thu nhp li
633
1,421
1,838
3,519
2,410
77.12%
Thu nhp ph thun
192
191
381
589
335
45.36%
LNST
492
703
1,095
1,745
721
52.54%
Ngun: BCTC MB qua cc nm

So snh vi mt s NHTM c quy m ln thuc nhm mt v nhm hai c nim
yt, MB t c tng trng cc ch tiu chnh mc cao v ng u hn.
Nhiu ch tiu tng trng ca MB t mc cao nht trong s cc ngn hng c
so snh. C th, tng trng tng thu nhp hot ng v tng trng thu nhp li
thun mc 57.1%/nm v 77.12%/ nm, gp hn hai ln so vi cc NHTM nhm 1
l VCB, CTG v cao hn nhiu so vi cc ngn hng nhm hai. Tng trng huy
ng v tn dng cng mc cao nht trong khi tng trng tng ti sn v li
nhun sau thu ch thp hn mt cht so vi EIB v cao hn nhiu so vi cc ngn
hng khc.

Website: www.tls.vn

Nguyen Viet Dzung

Trn Th Hu Phng
Tng trng trung bnh hng nm cc ch tiu giai on 2007-2010 ca cc NH.

Ch tiu
TTS
Cho vay KH
Tin gi KH
VL
Tng thu nhp H
Thu nhp li thun
Thu nhp ph thun
LNST
VCB
15.9%
21.9%
13.1%
35.8%
26.0%
25.9%
33.1%
20.5%
CTG
30.3%
32.1%
22.3%
23.9%
30.6%
37.2%
62.5%
43.6%
ACB
33.9%
39.8%
24.6%
52.8%
22.0%
47.0%
45.0%
9.9%
STB
33.1%
32.4%
21.0%
34.9%
27.5%
50.0%
80.8%
11.7%
EIB
57.3%
49.7%
36.4%
29.3%
53.4%
61.5%
87.3%
57.6%
MB
54.7%
61.4%
54.6%
54.0%
57.1%
77.1%
45.3%
52.5%
Ngun: TLS tng hp

Hiu qu kinh doanh th hin qua cc ch tiu ti chnh.
ROAE
ROAA
35.00%
2.500%
30.00%
2.000%
25.00%
1.500%
20.00%
15.00%
1.000%
10.00%
.500%
5.00%
.000%
.00%
2008
ACB
CTG
EIB
2009
HBB
SHB
2008
2010
STB
VCB
MB
ACB
CTG
EIB
2009
HBB
SHB
2010
STB
VCB
MB
Ngun: TLS tng hp
ROE, ROA ng mc cao: Vi chin lc s dng vn hp l sinh li cng vi

b my qun l v iu hnh linh hot, MB t c kt qu kinh doanh kh tt
vi cc ch tiu ti chnh mc cao. Hiu qu hot ng th hin qua cc ch s
ROAE, ROAA ca MB ng mc cao qua cc nm, nm trong nhm cc ngn hng
c ch s ROE, ROA cao nht trong ngnh bao gm ACB, CTG, VCB.
ROAE c xu hng tng nh qua cc nm. Nm 2010 ROAE ng mc 22.13%.
Ch tiu ROAA ca MB cng n nh mc cao qua cc nm v c bit t cao
nht so vi cc ngn hng so snh trong nm 2010. ROAA ca MB trong nm 2010
t 1.95%.

Website: www.tls.vn

Nguyen Viet Dzung

Trn Th Hu Phng
T l li bin (NIM) kh cao so vi cc ngn hng khc

T l li bin (NIM)
- Sau gn 17 nm hot ng, MB thit lp c uy tn v thng hiu trn

th trng vi mng li v h thng khch hng tng i ln
5.00%
4.30%
4.16%
4.500%
4.00%
- MB c quan h truyn thng vi cc doanh nghip qun i kh cht ch
3.48%
3.500%
- Cc c ng ln ca MB l cc khch hng c tim nng hp tc tt (Viettel,

Tn Cng, Tng Cng ty Trc Thng, Cng ty 28,...).
3.00%
2.500%
2.00%
V vy, trong thi gian qua mc d th trng, nn kinh t ni chung c nhiu

kh khn nhng MB vn duy tr, thu ht c 1 ngun vn huy ng kh tt,
n nh vi chi ph kh thp. y l li th gip cho MB c 1 t l NIM kh cao
qua cc nm v so vi cc NH khc (ngoi ra c ch cho vay theo li sut tha
thun cng l nguyn nhn gip gia tng thu nhp li v NIM).
1.500%
1.00%
.500%
.00%
2008
ACB
CTG
EIB
2009
HBB
SHB
2010
STB
VCB
MB
Chi ph hot ng kim sot mc thp
Ngun: TLS tng hp.
Vi chnh sch qun l chi ph hp l, t trng chi ph hot ng/thu nhp ca MB

lun duy tr mc thp so vi cc ngn hng c cng quy m ti sn v tc tng
trng v kh thp hn so vi trung bnh ngnh. T trng ny c tng nh trong
vng 5 nm qua t mc 18.4% nm 2006 ln 30.7% nm 2010 do ngn hng tp
trung vo pht trin theo chiu rng, cao hn so vi Eximbank mc 27.9%, tuy
nhin so vi cc ngn hng khc vn mc thp hn tng i
Chi ph H/Thu nhp H ca MB
Chi ph H/Thu nhp H ca cc NH
35%
60%
30%
50%
25%
40%
20%
30%
15%
20%
10%
10%
5%
0%
0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
ACB
2010
CTG
EIB
STB
VCB
SHB HBB
MB
Chi ph H/ Tng thu nhp H (CIR)
Ngun: BCTC ca MB.
Ngun: BCTC cc NH nm 2010, TLS tng hp

Ngun: TLS tng hp
Hiu qu hot ng tnh trn tng chi nhnh v nhn vin cao hn cc ngn hng khc
So snh li nhun/chi nhnh
(v: t VND)
So snh li nhun/nhn vin

(v: t VND)
0,016
0,001
0,014
0,012
0,001
0,010
0,000
0,008
0,000
0,006
0,000
0,004
0,000
0,002
2007
VCB
ACB
2008
STB
2009
HBB
EIB
2007
2010
SHB
MB
VCB
ACB
2008
STB
2009
HBB
EIB
2010
SHB
MB
Ngun: BCTN cc NH, TLS

Ngun:TLS tng hp
5

Website: www.tls.vn

Nguyen Viet Dzung

Trn Th Hu Phng
S dng vn ngn hn cho vay trung v

di hn
Hiu qu hot ng th hin qua cc ch s ny trong cc nm trc khng c nhiu

ni bt, tuy nhin trong hai nm tr li y, cc ch s ny tng cao r rt so vi cc
ngn hng khc, c bit trong nm 2010, cao hn hn so vi cc ngn hng tn
tui ln khc nh VCB, ACB Trong cc nm ti, vi k hoch tip tc pht trin
30%
theo c chiu rng v chiu su, chng ti cho rng MB vn s t c cc ch tiu
25%
hiu qu hot ng kh quan.
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
s dng vn ngn hn cho vay trung di hn
Ngun: MB
LDR cc NH
120%
110%
100%
90%
74.2%
74.0%
80%
70%
60%
57.9%
50%
2008
ACB
CTG
2009
EIB
STB
2010
VCB
MB
Ngun:TLS tng hp

Website: www.tls.vn
MB ch trng cng tc qun tr ri ro v tim nng tng trng tn dng ca

MB cn ln. MB tun th cht ch cc quy nh m bo an ton hot ng theo yu
cu ca NHNN. Nm 2009 h s CAR ca MB l 12% cao hn nhiu so vi mc yu cu
8%. Nm 2010 h s CAR ca MB mc 11.6% vn cao hn nhiu so vi quy nh
mi mc 9%. m bo an ton hot ng cng nh chun b cho cc c hi
pht trin MB c k hoch tip tc tng vn iu l ln 10,000 t ng trong thi gian
ti. H s an ton vn c k vng tip tc ci thin.
MB cng ch trng qun tr ri ro thanh khon, t l vn ngn hn v cho vay trung v
di hn trong cc nm 2008 tr v trc rt thp. Nm 2009 MB y mnh cho vay
theo chng trnh h tr li sut ca chnh ph, tuy nhin vn thp hn t l theo yu
cu ca NHNN mc 30%. Nm 2010 t l ny gim xung cn 17.62%.
T l cho vay khch hng trn huy ng khch hng (LDR) ca MB cng mc thp.
Nm 2008 t l ny ch mc 58%. Nm 2009 v 2010 MB y mnh cho vay dn
n t l ny tng ln mc 74%. Tuy vy t l LDR ca MB vn thp hn nhiu so vi
cc NH TMCP khc. c bit nm 2010 LDR ca MB thp nht trong s 5 ngn hng
TMCP c m ln nim yt trn sn giao dch chng khon. iu ny phn no phn
nh MB ch trng qun tr ri ro thanh khon cng nh c chnh sch tng trng tn
dng thn trng. Th hin qua nh hng pht trin tn dng ca MB l "Tng
trng c chn lc gn vi qun l cht lng", vic thm nh, la chn khch hng
vay vn c thc hin theo nguyn tc thn trng, thc hin qun l cht ch
phng n vay vn, ngun tr n ca Khch hng hn ch ri ro pht sinh.
n 1H2011, LDR ca MB vn duy tr mc 74.4%, khng tnh n nh hng ca
quy nh mc tng trng tn dng trn ca NHNN, tim nng tng trng tn dng
ca MB trong cc nm ti vn cn rt ln.

Nguyen Viet Dzung

Trn Th Hu Phng
C cu ti sn ca MB qua cc nm
Phn tch bo co ti chnh

Ti sn
Cho vay khch hng chim t l cao nht trong c cu ti sn v c xu hng tng
120%
100%
1.6%
9.4%
2.2% 2.4% 5.6% 5.0%

22.1% 16.2% 17.2% 17.2%
80%
38.7%
60%
34.9% 42.2% 43.8% 46.1%
40%
20%
47.3%
36.1% 34.9% 30.7% 28.7%
0%
qua cc nm. Nm 2008 t l ny ch chim 35% trong tng ti sn, nm 2009 t

42.2% tng ti sn v cng l nm nh du s pht trin vt bc v tng trng tn
dng. n cui qu 2 nm 2011 t l ny tip tc tng trng ln 46.1%.
Mc du vy, xt trn c cu tn dng trn tng ti sn trong bo co ti chnh ca cc
ngn hng trong nm 2010, t l cho vay khch hng ca MB vn mc tng i
thp so vi cc ngn hng khc. T l ny i vi cc ngn hng ln nh VCB l 56%,
CTG l 63%, STB l 53%. Cng vi ACB v TCB, MB c t trng cho vay KH/TTS
mc tng i thp.
Tn dng v tng trng
Khc
TSC
Ti sn c khc
CKT & gp vn DH
Cho vay KH
60,000
54,100
88.0%
50,000
Tin gi ti TCTD
48,797
40,000
29,588
Ngun: BCTC MB
30,000
C cu ti sn ca cc NH nm 2010
20,000
35.5%
15,740
10,000
100%
18%
80%
70%
11%
17%
25%
50%
63% 47%
43%
56%
35%
30%
10%
17% 14%
25%
26% 31% 31%

14%
0%
ACB CTG EIB
TS khc
TS c khc
Cho vay KH
STB VCB TCB MB

TSC
CKT & gp vn DH
Tin gi cc TCTD
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1H 2011
tng trng
Ngun: BCTC MB,
45%
53%
20%
2008
2009
2010
Cho vay khch hng
17%
21%
17%
60%
40%
10.9%
90%
64.9%
C cu d n cho vay KH
12.9%
19.9%
67.1%
N ngn hn
N trung hn
N di han
Ngun: BCTC MB 1H 2011
Trong nhng nm va qua MB c mc tng trng tn dng cao vi s d cho vay

khch hng tng mnh t 15,4740 t nm 2008 ln n 54,100 t vo cui qu 2
2011. Tng trng tn dng t mc cao trong hai nm 2009 v 2010, cao hn 2 ln
so vi mc tng trng tn dng ton ngnh. Tuy nhin trong nm 2011 MB phi
iu chnh li k hoch tng trng tn dng ph hp vi mc tng trng tn dng
trn do NHNN quy nh. Trong na u nm, tng trng tn dng ca tp on ch
mc 10.9%.
Ngun: BCTC cc NH nm 2010
Danh mc tn dng ca MB lun c kim sot cht ch. Thc t trong nhiu nm
T l n xu
qua, MB duy tr c cht lng danh mc tn dng tt, kim sot n xu cht
ch, lun duy tr t l n xu (NPL) di 1.90%. T l n xu ca MB mc trung
bnh thp so vi t l n xu ca ngnh v c xu hng gim t nm 2008. T l n
2.000%
1.800%
1.600%
1.400%
1.200%
1.000%
.800%
.600%
.400%
.200%
.000%
xu nm 2010 ca ring MB l 1.35% (hp nht l 1.26%).

Trong khong thi gian u nm, do tnh hnh kinh t v m trong nc v th gii
gp nhiu kh khn nh hng n kh nng tr n ca khch hng, t l n xu
ca ton ngnh ngn hng ang c xu hng tng. T l n xu ca ngnh tng kh
mnh t mc 2.16% vo cui nm 2010 ln mc 3.04% vo cui thng 7 2011. T
l ny ca ring MB tng nh ln mc 1.52% vo 30/6/2011 v 1.66% vo cui
thng 8 2011.
n thi im 31/8 MB cn 521 t ng s d u t tri phiu v 274 t ng s
d bo lnh cho Vinashin. Hin ti MB ang cng vi chnh ph v Vinashin phi
T l n xu (NPL ratio)
Ngun: BCTC MB
hp tm gii php thu hi n. Trn quan im qun tr ri ro v thn trng MB cng

ch ng trch d phng cho cc khon tn dng ca Vinashin. i vi khon cam
kt ngoi bng MB thc hin trch lp d phng chung theo t l quy nh l 0.75%.
N
7

Website: www.tls.vn
g
u
n
:
M

Nguyen Viet Dzung

Trn Th Hu Phng
Tin gi v cho vay ti cc ngn hng khc Mt phn ln ti sn ca MB nm

mc tin gi v cho vay cc t chc tn dng, chim khong 30.7% tng ti sn ca
tp on MB trong nm 2010 v gim xung cn 28.7% vo gia nm 2011.
Chng khon kinh doanh
T l Cho vay KH/huy ng KH
Huy ng v vay TCTD
2,000
35,000
1,500
1,000
110%
30,000
100%
25,000
90%
20,000
80%
500
74%
74%
10,000
70%
2007
2008
2009
2010
58%
60%
1H2011
5,000
-
50%
(500)
CK kinh doanh
D phng
Net
ACB
15,000
2008
CTG
EIB
2009
STB
2010
VCB
MB
vay cc TCTD
Gi cc TCTD
Ngun: BCTC MB
Ngun: BCTC cc NH, TLS tng hp
CK u t & gp vn DH
18,000
15,564
16,000
16,746
1,600
1,400
12,000
9,674
10,000
1,200
8,478
1,000
8,000
800
6,000
4,000
2,000
MB c hot ng kh mnh trn th trng lin ngn hng v lun l ngn hng cho
vay rng trn th trng ny k c cc thi im kh khn thanh khon ca c h
thng. c bit nm 2009, 2010 tng trng cho vay trn th trng hai ca MB t
50% v 40% tng ng. Vic kinh doanh trn th trng lin ngn hng va l ni d
tr thanh khon, va mang li khon thu nhp ng k vi ri ro thp, c bit trong
iu kin th trng nm 2010 v u nm 2011, cnh tranh v huy ng khin
nhiu ngn hng nh gp ri ro thanh khon, nhu cu vay trn th trng hai tng
cao, y li sut lin ngn hng ln kh cao. Nm 2010 li nhun t hot ng lin
ngn hng tip tc t mc cao vi 411.6 t ng tng trng 161% so vi nm
2009. Na u nm 2011 cho vay trn th trng lin ngn hng ca MB gim nh
ph hp vi chin lc a dng ha ngun thu nhp v gim t trng ti sn v ri ro
th trng ny tm kim cc ti sn khc c mc sinh li cao m vn c thanh
khon tt.
2,000
1,800
14,000
600
400
1,676
200
CK u t
Ngun: BCTC MB
Gp vn T di hn
u t chng khon v gp vn: Trong nm 2010 v na u nm 2011, t l ti

Ngun: BCTC MB, TLS tng hp
sn ca MB dnh cho chng khon u t, chng khon kinh doanh v gp vn u

t di hn chim 17.2% tng ti sn ca MB. Trong , chng khon u t chim t
trng cao nht vi 14.2% tng ti sn nm 2010 v tng nh ln 14.54% vo gia
nm 2011. Chng khon gi n ngy o hn n thi im gia nm 2011 l
9187.7 t ng gim so vi thi im u nm l 10,158.9 t ng.
C cu gp vn di hn
Trong na u nm 2011 s d chng khon u t sn sng bn ca MB tng

mnh, t 5542.7 t ng ln 8001.8 t ng trong 8.85% l chng khon vn,
69.7% l tri phiu chnh ph, 9.1% vo tri phiu TCTD, cn li l tri phiu doanh
nghip.
Chng ti tng hp li s liu chng khon u t theo mc ri ro cng c ti
chnh nh sau:
36.06%
39.03%
5.40%
19.52%
T vo
T vo
T vo
T vo
n v: triu ng
Tri phiu CP
Tri phiu TCTD
Tri phiu DN
Chng khon
Tng
D phng gim gi CKT
Net
TCKT
TC ti chnh
cc qu T
d n DH
Ngun: BCTC 1H 2011 MB

Website: www.tls.vn
g
u
n
:
1H2011
9,793,691
3,876,309
2,811,332
708,191
17,189,523
(443,745)
16,745,778

Nguyen Viet Dzung
t trng
57.0%
22.6%
16.4%
4.1%
2010
8,293,881
3,676,775
3,121,975
609,031
15,701,662
(138,138)
15,563,524
t trng
52.8%
23.4%
19.9%
3.9%

Trn Th Hu Phng
Tri phiu chnh ph c mua kh mnh trong na u nm 2011 trong khi tri
phiu doanh nghip gim nh l hai thay i ch yu trong c cu danh mc chng
khon u t. C cu chng khon u t ca MB gip MB va gia tng thu nhp t
li va gip MB ch ng bo m thanh khon p ng cc yu cu qun tr theo cc
thng l an ton hot ng ngn hng.
Chng khon kinh doanh: Ti sn chng khon kinh doanh c tng trng mnh trong
hai nm 2009 v 2010. Ti thi im cui nm 2010, gi tr vn u t danh mc
chng khon kinh doanh l 1,821 t ng.
Gp vn, u t di hn: Ti sn l cc khon gp vn u t di hn ca MB chim
khong 1.52% tng ti sn ca MB n thi im gia nm 2011. Ti sn gp vn u
t di hn tng trng khng ng u qua cc nm, gim nh trong nm 2009 v li
tng mnh trong 2010. Ngoi vic u t vo cc t chc kinh t ti chnh, MB cng
ch trng u t vo cc d n c tim nng mang li thu nhp tt, n gia 1H2011
MB u t 665.4 t ng vo cc d n u t di hn tng ng 39% tng gi
tr gp vn, u t di hn.
TSC: Trong nhng nm gn y, c bit nm 2010 MB u t mnh vo ti sn
c nh, tng nng lc kinh doanh di hn, ti sn c nh ca MB nm 2010 tng
96.4% ln mc 1,223 t ng . Hin ti MB ang trin khai m rng khai thc khu vc
min trung v min nam, vic tng cng u t vo ti sn c nh, nng cp cc
phn mm, cng ngh v m rng mng li i hi MB phi tip tc tng cng u
t. Theo k hoch tng vn mi ca MB, 28.5% s vn mi c th c s dng
tng cng u t vo tr s giao dch, phn mm, cng ngh v trang thit b. n
thi im hin ti TSC chim khong 1.27% tng ti sn ca MB.

Website: www.tls.vn

Nguyen Viet Dzung

Trn Th Hu Phng
Ngun vn:
C cu ngun huy ng
120%
100%
8.0%
5.4%
3.9%
5.4%
4.8%
80%
70.7% 68.5% 65.0% 65.8% 69.3%
60%
40%
20%
19.0% 16.9%
19.8% 21.5%
20.7%
MB c mt c cu ngun huy ng tng i n nh. Huy ng t khch hng l

ngun huy ng li v c tnh cht n nh nht, chim t trng chi phitng ngun
huy ng ca MB. n cui 2010 t l huy ng t khch hng trn tng huy ng l
65.8%. Tuy nhin t l ny tip tc c ci thin v tng ln 69.3% vo gia nm
2011. Trong c cu huy ng t khch hng, huy ng t cc t chc kinh t chim t
trng 60.4%, cn li l huy ng t c nhn.
So snh vi cc NH c quy m ln t l tin gi ca KH/ tng ngun huy ng nm
2010 ca MB mc cao, ch ng sau VCB v cao hn kh nhiu so vi cc NHTMCP
khc.
0%
Ngha v khc
Giy t c gi
TCTD gi
y thc u t
KH gi
N NHNN
Ngun: BCTC MB
C cu ngun huy ng cacc NH nm

2010
Huy ng t th trng hai chim t trng nh trong c cu huy ng ca MB, trung

bnh dao ng quanh mc 19%.
Tng ngun huy ng
Huy ng khch hng
120,000
70%
100,000
60%
50%
80,000
80,000
70%
70,000
60%
60,000
50%
50,000
40%
40%
100%
1%
3%
90%
18%
20%
80%
11% 11% 5%
21%
40,000
60,000
30%
40,000
20%
70%
60%
50%
55%
59%
71%
49%
45%
57%
66%
tng huy ng
31%
15%
10%
10% 28%
11%
Giy t c gi
Tin gi ca KH
N NHNN
0%
2008
2009
Huy ng KH
2010
1H 2011
tng trng
Ngun: BCTC MB
Tng trng tng ngun huy ng v huy ng t khch hng ca MB t nm 20072010 mc cao, trung bnh hng nm tng trng 56.5% v 54.6% tng ng.
Ngun: BCTC cc NH 2010
7,300
Cng vi mc tng trng cao ca Tng ti sn, Vn ch s hu v vn iu l cng

c mc tng mnh tng ng. Vn iu l ca MB nm 2007 ch l 2000 t ng, n
ht 2010 vn iu l t 7,300 t. Nm 2011 cng ty t k hoch tng vn iu l
ln 10,000 t qua hai t pht hnh. Do tnh hnh th trng ti chnh kh khn trong
na u nm 2011, ng thi vi vic hon thin cc th tc nim yt chng khon
ti S giao dich Chng khon HCM, cho nn n cui qu hai MB vn cha thc hin
tng vn v d kin s hon tt cc th tc theo cc quyt nh ca i hi ng c
ng nm 2011.
9,000
8,000
7,300
7,000
5,300
6,000
5,000
3,000
tng trng
10%
Tc tng trng ny gim mnh trong na u nm 2011 di tc ng ca

chnh sch tin t tht cht v tng trng cung tin na u nm mc rt thp.
Mc du vy huy ng khch hng ca MB vn t kt qu tng i kh quan so vi
cc ngn hng khc vi mc tng trng 10.6%, tng huy ng tng trng 5%.
10,000
3,400
4,000
1H 2011
Ngun: BCTC MB
STB VCB MSB TCB MB
N khc
y thc
Tin gi & vay TCTD
2010
10.56%
20% 17%
21%
0%
ACB CTG EIB
2009
20%
20,000
10% 10,000
0%
2008
30%
20%
4.98%
-
57%
40%
20,000
30%
30,000
2,000
2,000
1,000
2007
2008
VCSH
2009
2010
1H
2011
VL
Ngun: BCTC MB
10

Website: www.tls.vn

Nguyen Viet Dzung

Trn Th Hu Phng
Phn tch KQH KD
C cu thu nhp
Tng trng trung bnh tng thu nhp hot ng giai on 2007-2010 ng mc
cao, t 57.1%/nm. Nm 2010 tng thu nhp hot ng t 4,088 t ng, tng
trng 54% so vi nm 2009. Thu nhp t li vn lun chim t trng ch o, t
81.4% tng thu nhp hot ng, thu nhp t ph cng c mc tng trng tt v
chim 13.6% tng thu nhp hot ng.
2.9%
100%
2.4%
9.6%
13.6%
8.1%
80%
11.7%
11.2%
14.5%
14.3%
60%
40%
86.7%
Trong na u nm 2011 tng thu nhp hot ng ca tp on MB t 2,315 t

ng, bng 56.6% c nm 2010. c bit thu nhp li v thu nhp li thun c tng
trng ng k, bng 76.0% v 68.5% tng ng so vi c nm 2010.
81.4%
69.3%
104.1%
20%
0%
-10.2%
2008
2009
2010
-20%
Trong tng thu nhp li, thu nhp li cho vay khch hng chim 61.4%, thu nhp li
tin gi chim gn 25%. Trong thu nhp li ca MB, thu nhp li t th trng 2 cng
chim t trng ng k.
1H2011
-24.3%
Gp vn CP
Ngoi hi
Li
Khc
Mua ban CK DT
H Dch v
Thu nhp li v NIM

Ngun: BCTC MB
Tng TN H
4,500
4,000
10,000
5.00%
9,000
4.50%
8,000
4.00%
7,000
3.50%
64%
6,000
3.00%
62%
5,000
2.50%
4,000
2.00%
3,000
1.50%
2,000
1.00%
1,000
0.50%
3,500
60%
3,000
2,500
58%
2,000
56%
0.00%
2008
1,500
C cu thu nhp li
54%
1,000
TN li
2009
2010
1H 2011
TN li rng
52%
500
-
50%
2008
2009
2010
Tng thu nhp H
Ngun: BCTC MB
NIM
1.23%
12.63%
24.70%
61.44%
TN li tin gi
TN li cho vay KH
Thu li t TCK
Thu khc t H TD
Ngun: BCTC MB 1H 2011
1H 2011
Tng trng
Ngun: BCTC cc NH
NIM ca MB duy tr mc cao qua cc nm, dao ng xung quanh mc 4%. Nm 2010
NIM theo tnh ton da trn BCTC ca MB t 4.34%. Na u nm 2011, NIM c kh
nng tip tc ci thin nh, thc y tng trng thu nhp li thun ca MB.
Thu nhp t hot ng dch v cng c mc tng trng mnh gp phn gia tng tng
thu nhp ca MB. c bit trong nm 2009 2010, tng trng li thun hot ng dch
v ca MB t 99.1% v 54.7% tng ng.
Na u nm 2011, hot ng dch v vn tip tc c tng trng kh trong bi cnh
tng trng nn kinh t ang chm dn li, bng 56.8% c nm 2010. Dch v bo
lnh c mc tng trng mnh khi thu nhp t mng ny trong na u nm t
188.9 t ng, bng 90.56% c nm 2010, v chim 50% tng thu nhp t ph ca MB
trong na u nm 2011. Hot ng thanh ton tip tc tng trng tt vi thu nhp
bng 59.2% c nm 2010. Tuy nhin doanh thu dch v t hot ng chng khon
gim mnh do th trng chng khon tr nn m m v dng tin vo th trng rt
yu trong na u nm 2011. T trng thu nhp t dch v chng khon gim
mnh t mc 33% tng thu nhp t ph trong nm 2011 xung cn 11% trong na
u nm nay.
11

Website: www.tls.vn

Nguyen Viet Dzung

Trn Th Hu Phng
Thu nhp hot ng u t
Thu nhp t ph
C cu thu nhp t ph
800
700
300
200
11%
400
2007
2008
2009
2010
1H
2011
50%
300
200
(200)
100
(300)
33% 23%
20%
2007
(400)
(500)
2008
TN t ph
2009
2010 1H 2011
TN ph rng
(600)
thu nhp H T
Ngun: BCTC MB
T l chi ph/ Thu nhp H
36.9%
40%
35%
28%
500
100
(100)
19%
16%
600
31.5%
33.9%
29.5%
30.7%
30%
Bo lnh
DV thanh ton
DV chng khon
Cc dch v khc
Ngun: BCTC MB 2010 & 1H 2011
Hot ng mua bn chng khon kinh doanh v chng khon u t l hot ng

kinh doanh cha ng nhiu ri ro, nhy cm vi din bin th trng. Cc nm 2007
v 2009 khi nn kinh t tng trng tt v th trng chng khon khi sc MB ghi
nhn thu nhp Li ln t hot ng ny, trong khi ngc li nm 2008 v 2010 nn
kinh t th gii v trong nc suy thoi, ngn hng phi ghi nhn l.
Na u nm 2011 l giai on kh khn ca c nn kinh t ni chung v th trng
tin t v th trng chng khon ni ring. Nhn nh kh khn th trng CK cn
ko di, MB thc hin bn rng chng khon kinh doanh, gim Gi tr Danh mc
mc 183 t VND, ghi nhn khon l 65.8 t ng, nhng ng thi thc hin Trch lp
D phng GGCK kinh doanh y trn quan im thn trng
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
1H2011
T l chi ph / Thu nhp H (CIR)
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
Trong na u nm 2011, MB trch lp d phng gim gi chng khon vn v

chng khon n mc 497.5 t ng, trong trch lp 230 t ng d phng cho
khon u t tri phiu ca Vinashin tr gi 350 t ng mc d cc khon u t ny
cha n hn (250 t ng n hn vo 12/2011, 50 t ng n hn vo 11/2012 v
50 t ng n hn vo 2017). Mc d MB cng Vinashin v Chnh Ph vn ang trong
qu trnh tm gii php ti c cu doanh nghip. Vic trch lp d phng sm ny
th hin quan im thn trng ca MB. S d trch lp d phng cho cc khon u
t tri phiu vo Vinashin n thi im 30/6/2011 l 305 t ng, n 31/8/2011 MB
tip tc trch lp d phng thm, nng s d trch lp d phng cho cc khon u t
ngy l 327.5 t ng. i vi cc khon u t chng khon vn, Ngn hng cng
trch lp y v ph hp vi tnh hnh hin ti.
1,000
Kt qu hot ng u t ny ko tng thu nhp hot ng ca MB trong 1H 2011

gim xung, do nh hng n cc ch s hiu qu hot ng ca MB.
800
600
400
200
2007
2008
2009
2010
1H 2011
T l chi ph hot ng trn thu nhp hot ng ca MB dao ng quanh mc 32%,

mc thp so vi cc NHTMCP khc, tuy nhin t l ny tng nh trong na u nm
2011 do tng trng ca chi ph hot ng ln hn tng trng ca thu nhp hot
ng.
LNST
Trong giai on 2007-2010 MB t c nhng tng trng mnh m v tng ti sn,

tn dng cng nh Vn ch s hu. Tuy nhin tng trng li nhun sau thu ca MB
lun gi c nhp cng vi cc mc tiu tng trng khc. Tng trng trung bnh
li nhun sau thu giai on 2007-2010 ca MB mc 52.5%. n 2010 LNST ca
MB t 1,745.17 t ng. Na u nm 2011 LNST hp nht ca MB c mc tng
trng nh v t 860.05 t ng.
12

Website: www.tls.vn

Nguyen Viet Dzung

Trn Th Hu Phng
NH GI
Vi tng trng hot ng ca MB trong nm 2010 v cc nm trc tng i kh

quan mc khong 50%/nm v k hoch pht trin theo c chiu rng v chiu
su, chng ti tin rng MB c kh nng t c kt qu kinh doanh kh quan trong
cc nm ti.
Cng vi chnh sch kim sot lm pht v khng ch tng trng tn dng mc
20%, MB v cc t chc tn dng khc trong h thng u phi iu chnh li ch tiu
tng trng, tuy nhin vi chnh sch linh hot v iu hnh li sut lm tng t l li
bin, ha hn mt mc thu nhp rng t li c ci thin ng k. Kt qu kinh
doanh t c trong na u nm tng i kh quan: tng trng tn dng t gn
10.87%, tng trng huy ng khch hng t 10.56%. Chng ti cho rng vi kt
qu ny, na cui nm 2011, MB c kh nng kim ch tng trng tn dng cht hn
m bo mc tiu tng trng cui nm.
Chng ti nh gi c phiu ngn hng ti chnh ni chung da trn phng php P/E
v P/B vi gi nh tng trng chung mt s ch tiu ca MB mc thn trng trong
bi cnh chnh sch tin t t c kh nng c ni lng mnh m trong cc nm ti
khi nhiu kh nng NHNN tip tc c th p dng cc mc tng trng tn dng trn
cho tng nhm ngn hng.
Huy ng khch hng
Tng trng huy ng ca MB trong cc nm qua mc tng i cao, tng trng
trung bnh hng nm giai on 2007-2010 l 54.5%, cao hn nhiu so vi mc trung
bnh ngnh. Nm 2010, tng trng huy ng ton ngnh ngn hng t 27.2% trong
khi mc tng trng huy ng khch hng ca MB l 64.4%. Da trn kt qu tng
trng huy ng khch hng 6 thng u nm ca MB mc 10.56% v gi nh v
mc tng cung tin cho nn kinh t mc va phi v chnh sch u tin cho kim
ch lm pht ca Chnh ph, tng trng huy ng khch hng ca MB c gi nh
thn trng mc 19% cho nm 2011 v khong 22-24% cho cc nm tip theo.
Hot ng tn dng
Tng trng tn dng b ph thuc phn ln v cc chnh sch iu tit ca Chnh ph
nn thng khng ng u trong cc nm trc. Nm 2010, tng trng tn dng
ca MB l 64.9%, cao hn mc trung bnh ngnh l 27.65%, v cao hn so vi cc
ngn hng khc c cng quy m ti sn
Mc d t c mc tng trng kh cao trong nm 2010 v na u nm 2011, tn
dng ca MB c kh nng tng trng cao nu khng c gii hn tn dng trn.
thn trng, chng ti gi mc tng trng tn dng trong nm nay theo nh k hoch
khong 20%. Trong nm 2012 NHNN c th tip tc thc hin chnh sch tin t tht
cht kim ch lm pht mt cch n nh v t mc tng trng tn dng trn
mc 15%, chng ti do gi nh thn trng tng trng tn dng ca MB trong
2012 mc 15%. Trong nm 2013 chng ti gi nh mt mc tng trng cao hn,
t mc 20% khi lm pht v nn kinh t n nh tr li.
Chng ti gi nh NIM khng c s bin ng mnh v MB vn duy tr c li th
NIM cao hn so vi trung bnh ngnh.
Hot ng dch v
Tng trng t dch v khng ng u, nm 2007 tng trng mnh trong khi nm
2008 gim nh trong bi cnh nn kinh t trong nc v th gii suy thoi. Tuy nhin
13

Website: www.tls.vn

Nguyen Viet Dzung

Trn Th Hu Phng
n nm 2009 v nm 2010, tng trng li thun t hot ng dch v tip tc t

kt qu kh quan vi t l 99.1% v 54.7% . Trong na u nm 2011 mc d trong
bi cnh nn kinh t gp nhiu kh khn, thu nhp t mng ny cng t 56.8% so
vi c nm 2010. T trng thu nhp t ph trn tng thu nhp tng t 13.6% vo
cui nm 2010 ln 14.5% n gia nm 2011.
MB k hoch tip tc tng t trng thu nhp t dch v ln mc 15% trn tng thu
nhp vo nm 2012 v tng dn ln mc 20% trong cc nm tip theo.
Chng ti khng k vng mc tng trng cao t dch v trong nm nay do nhng kh
khn chung ca nn kinh t vi gi nh tng trng khong 15%, tuy nhin chng ti
k vng mc tng trng cho cc nm tip theo mc 25% theo phc hi ca nn
kinh t v vic m rng hot ng ca MB.
u t chng khon
Hot ng u t chng khon chu nhiu nh hng t chnh sch v m v cc bin
ng ca th trng. Trong na u nm 2011, hot ng mua bn chng khon kinh
doanh v u t cng ghi nhn khon l 65.8 t ng. Khon l ny l c th hiu
c trong bi cnh th trng chng khon i xung trong khon thi gian na u
nm. Ngoi ra ngn hng cn trch lp d phng gim gi chng khon kinh doanh l
187.7 t ng v d phng gim gi chng khon u t l 306.75 t ng, phn ln
trong khon ny d phng gim gi cho chng khon u t gi n ngy o hn
cho khon u t tri phiu Vinashin. Mc trch lp d phng u t tng i ln
trong 1H2011 ko tng thu nhp hot ng cng nh li nhun ca MB i xung.
Chng ti cho rng khi lm pht c xu hng gim v NHNN ang c gng gim mc
li sut trn th trng, th trng chng khon c kh nng s phc hi nh, gip
ngn hng gim cc khon d phng chng khon vn. Do gip ci thin nh hot
ng u t trong na cui nm 2011. Tuy nhin, chng ti k vng li nhun t
mng ny c th c ci thin nhiu hn trong cc nm tip theo khi li sut, lm
pht v th trng tin t v chng khon n nh hn trong nhng nm ti.
T l n xu v d phng
T l n xu ca MB c kim sot kh tt, c xu hng n nh v gim dn qua
cc nm. Tuy nhin, do nhng kh khn v m v li sut cho vay c y ln
kh cao trn th trng trong khong thi gian u nm, chng ti cho rng t l n
xu v trch d phng ca MB c kh nng s tng kh mnh nhng vn c kim
sot di mc mc tiu 1.90%. n 30/06/2011, t l n xu hp nht ca MB l
1.46%, tng nh so vi thi im cui nm 2010. n 31/8/2011 t l n xu ca
ring MB l 1.66%. Chng ti gi nh n xu nm 2011 c kh nng tip tc tng nh
ln 1.90% v gim nh trong cc nm tip theo. Chng ti gi nh tng t l trch lp
d phng ri ro tn dng ln gn 26% m bo d phng y .
Kt qu hot ng ca cc cng ty nh hng khng tt n kt qu hot ng hp
nht trong na u nm 2011, th hin li ch c ng thiu s m 139.2 t ng
trong bo co hp nht 1H2011 ca MB. Cng vi nguyn tc thit lp d phng thn
trng trn cc u t chng khon, cng vi l nhng hnh ng thng nht ca
Chnh ph trong vic n nh kinh t v m, chng ti k vng cc li nhun ca cc
cng ty trong thi gian ti s n nh v c ci thin nhm ng gp chung vo s
pht trin bn vng ca tp on.
EPS d phng
Theo i hi c ng nm 2011, MB c k hoch tng vn iu l ln 10,000 t
ng trong nm nay. C th, ngn hng s pht hnh 1,700 t ng cho c ng hin
hu v 1,000 t ng cho i tc chin lc. Vic pht hnh thm c th c tin
14

Website: www.tls.vn

Nguyen Viet Dzung

Trn Th Hu Phng
hnh sau thi im MB nim yt trn sn giao dch chng khon v c th c thc
hin vo st thi im cui nm. Chng ti do gi nh ngun vn mi ny s h
tr ch yu cc hot ng kinh doanh ca MB t nm 2012 trong khi ng gp vo
kt qu hot ng kinh doanh ca MB trong nm 2011 l khng ng k.
Chng ti d phng EPS nm 2011 s mc khong 2,660 VND/CP (trn VL 7300 t
ng), tng ng vi mc LNST khong 1,939 t ng. BVPS forward c xc nh
trn VL c mc 14,770 ng/CP.
nh gi
Chng ti nh gi c phiu MB theo phng php P/E v P/B, vi P/E v P/B so snh.
Chng ti tnh cc ch s PE PB forward ca 7 ngn hng TMCP nim yt.
Gi @03/10/2011
16,000
14,300
21,500
27,300
25,200
6,900
7,400
Trung bnh
EIB
STB
ACB
VCB
CTG
HBB
SHB
PE
6.72
6.65
6.87
10.11
8.69
5.52
6.43
7.29
PB
1.09
1.04
1.45
1.92
1.74
0.59
0.67
1.22
Ngun: TLS d bo
Vi quy m ti sn v hiu qu hot ng ca MB, chng ti cho rng EIB v STB l
hai ngn hng ph hp so snh khi c quy m ti sn, hiu qu hot ng gn
nht so vi MB. Trong khi VCB, CTG, ACB c quy m ti sn ln hn nhiu v HBB,
SHB li c quy m nh hn. Chng ti do s dng P/E, P/B trung bnh ca EIB v
STB lm c s nh gi nim yt cho MB.
Vi mc P/E mc 6.69 v EPS l 2,660, gi hp l ca MB s l 17,800 ng/CP
Vi P/B mc 1.07 v BVPS l 14,770,gi hp l ca MB s l 15,800 ng/CP.
Kt hp c hai phng php PE, PB vi gi nh 50/50 cho mi phng php, chng
ti k vng gi hp l c phiu MB s mc 16,800/CP sau khi nim yt. Gi c
phiu MB sau khi pht hnh trn mnh gi tng vn iu l t 7300 t ng ln
9000 t ng c k vng s iu chnh xung mc 15,500 ng/ c phiu. Vic
pht hnh cho i tc chin lc tng VL ln 10,000 t ng ph thuc vo gi
tha thun cha c xc nh tuy nhin theo chng ti s khng c nhiu nh hng
n gi th trng ca MB sau khi pht hnh bi i tc chin lc phi nm gi di
hn lng c phiu s hu, ng thi cng phi mang li cc gi tr gia tng vo hot
ng kinh doanh hay qun tr doanh nghip, ng gp vo s pht trin di hn ca
MB.
15

Website: www.tls.vn

Nguyen Viet Dzung

Trn Th Hu Phng
RI RO
Ri ro yu t v m
Tng trng GDP hng qu
7.488
6.784
6.520
6.114
5.826
5.570
5.430
5.324
6.4676.294
6.175
4.659
3.897
3.142
08: 08: 08: 08: 09: 09: 09: 09: 10: 10: 10: 10: 11: 11:
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Tc tng CPI hng thng

3.32
2.170 2.210
2.09
1.98
1.86
1.740
1.96
1.36
1.31
1.050
0.75
1.17
1.09
0.93
0.27
0.23
0.14 0.22
0.06
Ngun: TLS tng hp
Ngnh ti chnh ni chung v ngn hng ni ring l ngnh s phi chu ri ro u

tin v trc nht i vi nhng thay i v m n t Chnh ph v NHNN iu
tit th trng. Vi lm pht nm 2010 c y ln qu cao, vt xa k hoch
ra, tin ng mt gi ng k so vi USD, nn kinh t ri vo bt n, nh hng
trc tip n hot ng sn xut kinh doanh v i sng. Nm 2011, vi mc tiu
kim sot lm pht v n nh kinh t, Chnh ph v NHNN thc hin mt lot
cc bin php tht cht tin t, m u l s ra i ca NQ 01/NQ-CP ngy
24/02/2011. Gii php u tin c cp l gim tc tng trng tn dng
xung di mc 20%/nm, gim tc tng trng phng tin thanh ton c nm
xung 15-16% (thay v 21-24%).
Thc t tc tng trng tn dng v huy ng ca cc ngn hng trong na u
nm c kim sot cht vi li sut cho vay mc cao. Tnh n 8 thng u
nm, tng trng tn dng cho nn kinh t mi ch t 8.15% so vi cui nm 2010,
trong d n tn dng bng VND tng 3.94%, d n tn dng bng ngoi t tng
23.91% so vi 2010
n thi im hin ti, mc d nhng ri ro i vi nn kinh t vn cn nh lm
pht vn mc cao, GDP tng mc thp, tuy nhin chng ti nh gi nn kinh t
c kh nng s c ci thin nh mt vi tn hiu lc quan nh: cam kt h li sut
u vo ti a 14% ca kh nhiu cc ngn hng, li sut u ra theo cng
gim, vn cng thng v t gi c gim bt trong mt thi gian di.
Mc d vy, nhng ch tiu k hoch v m trn tc ng ng k v trc tip
n hot ng ca cc ngn hng. Vi tng trng tn dng nm 2010 ca ton
ngnh mc kh cao, ca mt s ngn hng TMCP ln n 40%-50%, nm 2011
cc ngn hng u phi iu chnh li k hoch tng trng tn dng v t mc
tiu mc di 20%. iu ny nh hng ng k n ch tiu li nhun ca
cc ngn hng khi tng trng tn dng thng ng gp ng k vo li nhun
hot ng.
Ri ro cnh tranh gia cc ngn hng
Nm 2010 v nhng thng u nm 2011 nh du mc hot ng kh si ng v
cnh tranh gay gt gia cc ngn hng. Vic NHNN p trn li sut huy ng mc
14% trong khi thc s cha gii bi ton v vn thanh khon cho cc ngn hng
lm cho p lc cnh tranh ngy cng tng cao, c bit l gia cc ngn hng nh
hn v quy m ti sn. c th gi chn khch hng v m bo thanh khon
trong khi vn phi m bo theo nhng quy nh ca NHNN, cc ngn hng phi
ngh ra nhiu cch thc lch lut nh tng, thng tin, tng hin vt, tng li
sut
Tuy nhin, n thi im gia nm 2011 cho n hin ti, tnh hnh cng thng
trong cnh tranh vn huy ng phn no c h nhit, li sut huy ng trn
th trng lin ngn hng cng gim ng k.
Quy nh v vn iu l ti thiu 3,000 t ng phi thc hin s gy p lc ng k
ln cc ngn hng nh. Cng vi , cc ngn hng ln cng tin hnh tng vn
thm m bo quy m v hiu qu hot ng. Nh vy, lng vn tng thm
trong ton ngnh ngn hng l kh nhiu s dn n vic cnh tranh mnh m hn
v th phn tn dng v th phn huy ng m bo s dung c hiu qu ngun
vn ch s hu.
16

Website: www.tls.vn

Nguyen Viet Dzung

Trn Th Hu Phng
s lng chi nhnh ca cc

ngn hng
Cng vi qu trnh gia nhp WTO, hot ng ca cc ngn hng nc ngoi ti Vit
nam s ngy cng m rng c v quy m v hiu qu. Ngoi 5 ngn hng 100% vn
ngoi, s chi nhnh ngn hng nc ngoi ti Vit Nam hin ln ti con s 40.
Nhiu thnh vin trong ng lot tng mnh vn c cp vo cui nm
2010.
400
Ri ro pha long khi tng vn mnh
350
300
Ngn hng Qun i thng qua i hi c ng v k hoch tng vn ln 10,000 t

ng (vn iu l c l 7,300 t ng) nhm nng cao nng lc ti chnh, nng lc
hot ng v kh nng cnh tranh ca MB. Qu trnh tng vn chia lm hai t:
tng thm 1,700 t ng thng qua vic cho bn 170,000,000 c phiu; t 2 tng
vn iu l thm 1,000 t ng thng qua vic cho bn 100,000,000 c phiu cho
i tc chin lc.
250
200
150
100
50
0
VCB ACB STB HBB EIB SHB MB

2007
2008
2009
2010
Ngun: TLS tng hp

C cu thu nhp theo vng
Vic tng vn kh mnh ny lm nhiu c ng bn khon do c th gp phi ri

ro pha long c phiu dn n EPS b st gim.
H thng mng li ang pht trin
S lng chi nhnh ca MB vn mc trung bnh so vi cc ngn hng nhm 2
c so snh i hi MB phi tip tc m rng mng li pht trin.
C cu thu nhp theo vng khng cn i khi 80% LNTT n t th trng min bc
v HO trong khi th trng min nam chi ng gp 17%. Nm 2011 MB tip tc pht
trin m rng mng li chi nhnh phng giao dch th trng pha Nam, c nh
gi l mt th trng hp dn v c nhiu tim nng tng trng. Vic pht trin h
thng mng li mt mt gip tng doanh thu, thu ht khch hng, mt khc cng
th hin uy tn v tn tui ca ngn hng trn th trng ti chnh.
17.00%
3.00%
80.00%
n thi im 30/6/2011 mng li MB c 1 hi s chnh, 1 s giao dch, 1 chi

nhnh ti Lo, 150 chi nhnh v cc im giao dch. Theo k hoch MB s c 207
im giao dch vo cui nm nay. Vic tng s lng chi nhnh ln kh mnh ny c
th nh hng n cc ch tiu v hiu qu hot ng th hin qua ch s li
nhun/chi nhnh trong ngn hn.
Min bc (gm HO)

Min trung (gm Lo)
Min nam
Ngun: MB
17

Website: www.tls.vn

Nguyen Viet Dzung

Trn Th Hu Phng
M HNH KINH DOANH

Ngn hng TMCP Qun i c thnh lp vo thng 11/1994 vi vn iu l ban
u ch 20 t ng. Tri qua gn 17nm hot ng, MB ngy cng pht trin ln
mnh vi vn iu l ln n 7,300 t ng vi nh hng tr thnh mt tp on
vi ngn hng m MB (mt trong s NHTMCP hng u Vit Nam) v nm cng ty
con hot ng kinh doanh c hiu qu
I HI NG C NG
C QUAN
KIM TON
BAN KIM
SOT
HI NG QUN TR
VN PHNG HI
NG QUN TR
NI B
CC Y BAN CAO
CP
PHNG
CEO
BAN U T
NGHIN CU
PHT TRIN
KHI KIM SOT NI B
VN PHNG TRIN KHAI

CHIN LC
KHI TI CHNH K TON
VN PHNG CEO
KHI T CHC NHN S
KHI QUN TR RI RO
PHNG U T V QUN L
D N
KHI THM NH TN
DNG
C cu c ng
C ng t chc
C ng c nhn
34.71
%
65.29
%
KHI
KHCH
HNG
LN
KHI
DOANH
NGHIP
VA V
NH
KHI
KHCH
HNG C
NHN
KHI
TREASURY
KHI QUN
L MNG
LI V
KNH PHN
PHI
KHI
VN
HNH
KHI CNG
NGH
THNG TIN
152 CHI NHNH V CC IM GIAO DCH
C cu c ng ln
Vietcombank
Viettel
Tng cng ty Trc thng Vit nam
Tng cng ty Tn Cng Si gn
Khc
11%
n thi im 30/6/2011, h thng ca MB bao gm: 1 hi s chnh, 1 s giao dch,

1 chi nhnh ti Lo, 150 chi nhnh v cc im giao dch, 327my ATM, 1,328 my
POS phn b 24 tnh thnh kinh t pht trin trn c nc; 5 Cng ty con; v 3
cng ty lin kt.
10%
7.24%
66%
5.71%
Ngun: MB
18

Website: www.tls.vn

Nguyen Viet Dzung

Trn Th Hu Phng
Cc cng ty con
STT
Tn Cng ty
Lnh vc kinh doanh
Cng ty c phn Chng

khon Thng Long
Cng ty c phn Qun
l Qu u t MB
Cng ty TNHH Qun l
N v khai thc ti sn
Ngn hng TMCP Qun
i
Cng ty c phn a c
MB
Cng ty c phn Viet
R.E.M.A.X
Mi gii u t & kinh

doanh chng khon
Qun l qu u t
2
3
4
5
Vn iu l
(t ng)
1200
T l s
hu
61.85%
100
61.78%
Qun l n v khai
thc ti sn
514.28
100%
u t & kinh doanh

bt ng sn
u t pht trin kinh
doanh vn phng cho
thu
571.48
65.26%
100
78.09%
Ngun: MB
Cng ty lin kt
STT
1
2
3
Tn Cng ty
Lnh vc kinh doanh
Cng ty C phn Viet- u t xy dng

Asset
Cng ty c phn Long Xy dng cng trnh
Thun Lc (D n u
t lin kt ca MBLand)
Cng ty c phn Bo
Bo him phi nhn th
him Qun i (MIC)
Vn iu l
(t ng)
11.11
T l s
hu
45%
100
29.37%
300
18.00%
Ngun: MB
i tc chin lc
MB xc nh vic xy dng cc mi quan h i tc ton din nhm pht huy li th
cng nh u im ca cc bn l quan trng v cn thit. MB hin nay c mi
quan h hp tc chin lc vi mt s i tc quan trng nh Tng Cng ty Trc
thng Vit Nam, Tng Cng ty Tn Cng Si Gn, Tp on Vin thng Qun i
(Viettel) v Ngn hng c phn Ngoi thng Vit Nam (Vietcombank). Ngoi ra, MB
cn k nhiu tha thun hp tc ton din vi cc tp on v tng cng ty ln nh
Tng Cng ty Lp my Vit Nam (LILAMA), Tp on Du kh Quc gia Vit Nam
(PetroVietnam), Tp on Cng nghip Than v Khong sn Vit Nam (TKV), Tng
Cng ty Sng , Tng Cng ty C ph Ty Nguyn, Tng cng ty Xng du Qun
i v cc tp on t nhn khc.
Cc dch v v hot ng chnh ca MB
Hot ng huy ng vn
Vi li th l mt ngn hng TMCP ln v c tn tui, hot ng huy ng vn ca
MB qua cc nm 2008, 2009, 2010 vn t c kt qu tng i kh quan mc
d y u l cc nm din ra khng hong ti chnh v cnh tranh gia cc ngn
hng v cng gay gt. Kh nng huy ng vn cao v n nh gip MB kim sot
tt ri ro thanh khon trong bi cnh kh khn ca nn kinh t Vit nam v kinh t
th gii hin nay.
MB huy ng vn t cc t chc kinh t v c nhn thng qua nhiu knh khc
nhau. Ngun vn huy ng t cc t chc kinh t thng qua mng li bn hng
qun l v h tr theo trc dc t cc khi CIB (doanh nghip ln v cc nh ch
ti chnh), SME v khch hng c nhn em li hiu qu. Cc hnh thc huy ng
19

Website: www.tls.vn

Nguyen Viet Dzung

Trn Th Hu Phng
vn ca MB rt a dng, linh hot nhm p ng tt nht nhu cu gi tin ca

khch hng doanh nghip v khch hng c nhn.
Bn cnh hot ng huy ng vn truyn thng, MB cng trin khai cc dch v
ngn hng hin i nh qun l dng tin, qun l tin mt v cc dch v t vn ti
chnh khc mang li cho MB mt s n nh ln v ngun vn.
Theo s liu ca stockplus, n cui 2010 th phn huy ng ca MB l 3.3%
Hot ng tn dng
Vi s tham gia ca Hi ng tn dng Hi s m bo hot ng ph duyt tn
dng tp trung vi cht lng cao nht, gim ti a ri ro xy ra n xu.
MB lun c mc tng trng kh qua cc nm c v s lng khch hng v quy m
d n tn dng.Tc tng trng s lng khch hng tn dng hng nm bnh
qun trong 03 nm 2008 2010 l 15%. Tc tng trng d n tn dng hng
nm bnh qun trong 3 nm 2008-2010 l 61.37%.
D n ca khch hng l t chc chim hn 80% tng d n ca MB.
MB tham gia ti tr cho nhiu Tp on kinh t, Tng Cng ty ln thc hin
nhiu d n quan trng nh: Tng Cng ty Tn Cng Si Gn; Tp on vin thng
Qun i (Viettel); Tp on du kh Quc gia Vit Nam; Tp on Than Khong
sn Vit Nam (TKV); Tp on Sng ; Nhm d n nng lng in ca Tng
cng ty truyn ti in Quc gia, Tng Cng ty Trc thng Vit Nam; Ban qun l d
n in Min Bc/Min Trung,
Thc hin chnh sch ca NHNN v gim t l cho vay phi sn xut, mc tiu n
nm 2011 kim sot mc 16%. Nm 2010, d n phi sn xut ca MB khong
30% trong d n tn dng cho BS l 8% v cho vay tiu dng l 8%. n
31/3/2011 d n phi sn xut chim 17% trong cho vay BS l 6% v cho vay
tiu dng l 9%. MB s m bo t l d n phi sn xut t 16% cui nm 2011.
Theo s liu ca Vietstock, n cui 2010 th phn tn dng ca MB l 2.5%.
Hot ng dch v
MB cung cp cc dch v bo lnh a dng nh bo lnh d
, bo lnh thc
hin hp ng, bo lnh hon tr tin ng trc, bo lnh bo hnh, bo lnh thanh
ton, bo lnh thanh ton thu, bo lnh vay vn, bo lnh m bo cht lng sn
phm, ... Tng doanh thu ph bo lnh nm 2009 t gn 111 t ng, tng 45% so
nm 2008 (76 t ng) v tng 2,4 ln so vi nm 2007 (46 t ng). Ti
31/12/2010, doanh thu ph bo lnh ca MB t 209 t ng tng 88,29% so vi
nm 2009. Hot ng bo lnh ca MB mang li khon thu ln trong tng thu
nhp ca MB v cho n nay vn an ton v hiu qu, khng xy ra cc ri ro ng
k no. C th ni, trong s cc Ngn hng TMCP, MB l mt trong nhng Ngn
hng c thu nhp t ph bo lnh cao nht.
H thng mng li hn 800 ngn hng i l trn khp th gii gip cho hot
ng thanh ton quc t ca MB c nhanh chng v chnh xc v c cc i
tc nh gi cao. Trong cc nm 2006, 2007 v 2008, MB c Citigroup tng gii
thng Ngn hng thc hin xut sc nghip v thanh ton quc t. Nm 2007, MB
nhn gii thng Ngn hng thc hin xut sc cc giao dch quc t t tp on
HSBC. Nm 2008 v nm 2009, MB c Ngn hng Wachovia N.Y trao tng gii
thng Ngn hng c t l in thanh ton thnh cng cao.
Trong nm 2010 mc d cc hot ng xut nhp khu trong c nc gp nhiu
kh khn, dch v thanh ton quc t ca MB vn tng mnh so vi nm trc. Tnh
20

Website: www.tls.vn

Nguyen Viet Dzung

Trn Th Hu Phng
n ht nm 2010, tng gi tr thanh ton quc t ca MB t 5,3 t USD, tng

71% so vi nm 2009. Thu ph t hot ng thanh ton quc t nm 2010 t
82,861 t ng, tng 7% so vi cng k nm ngoi.
Hot ng u t & kinh doanh vn
u t v kinh doanh trn th trng ti chnh l hot ng u t kinh doanh ch
yu ca MB, bao hm c vic u t Chng khon N, Chng khon Vn ti MB v
cc hot ng u t hay t doanh chng khon ti cc Cng ty thnh vin.
Hot ng kinh doanh chng khon bao gm hot ng t doanh, mua bn chng
khon ti cc n v thnh vin, ch yu ti TLS v MBCapital. Chng khon kinh
doanh lun c duy tr vi t trng nh trn tng vn u t ton danh mc.
MB thc hin gp vn di hn thc hin mt s d n c tim nng ln, c kh
nng sinh li cao, ng thi to ra cc c hi hp tc v cung cp sn phm dch v
ngn hng nh: D n khai thc cng ICD Long Bnh, cng Tn Cng - Ci Mp,
thy in Thi An, thy in Ha Na, bu chnh Viettel, ... Bn cnh , MB cng
thc hin u t chin lc v tham gia sng lp mt s t chc ti chnh ln, uy
tn nh: Cng ty c phn Bo him Qun i, Ti chnh Sng , Ti chnh Handico,
Ti chnh Vinaconex - Viettel, ...
Dch v th
Ngn hng kt ni thnh cng vi h thng lin minh th SmartLink. Hin nay,
MB chnh thc tr thnh thnh vin ca Master. D n Visa Card: Pht hnh v
kt ni thanh ton trong ni b thnh cng vo ngy 27/12/2010.
Tnh n 30/06/2011, MB pht hnh tng s 398.500 th, s lng POS t hn
1.328 POS, s lng ATM ton h thng ang hot ng l 327 my, trin khai pht
hnh th tn dng quc t Visa Card, Master Card ... vo u nm 2011
Cng ngh thng tin
MB lun i u trong pht trin h thng cng ngh thng tin v mc tiu em n
cho khch hng nhng dch v tt nht trong thi gian nhanh nht. MB tip tc u
t pht trin cng ngh phc v hot ng ngn hng.
D n nng cp trung tm d liu chnh v xy dng trung tm d phng: nhm
tng nng lc h thng my ch v h thng lu tr s liu vi cc cng ty tin tin
nht hin nay, m bo h tng cho giai on pht trin 5 nm ti ca MB.
MB s dng phn mm li ngn hng T24 do Temenos cung cp. y l phn mm
hin i gip MB tng tc x l giao dch, tng nng lc bo mt. MB tip tc
c k hoch nng cp h thng T24 t phin bn R5 ln R10 nhm nng cao nng
lc kinh doanh.
21

Website: www.tls.vn

Nguyen Viet Dzung

Trn Th Hu Phng
XUNG T LI CH
C th c xung t li ch do Chng khon Thng Long (TLS) v cc khch hng c th c quyn li ti cng ty ny thng qua vic
u t v/hoc cng cp cc dch v t vn khc trong qu kh, hin ti hoc tng lai.
SN PHM
Bo co ny phn tch nhng din bin mi nht ti doanh nghip. Vui lng lin lc vi cc chuyn vin phn tch hoc cn b bn
hng c tn trn bit thm v doanh nghip ny. Chng ti cm n khch hng v nhng phn hi v sn phm. TLS pht hnh
bo co ny nhng nhng sai st nu c thuc v cc tc gi.
kin phn tch: MUA: gi mc tiu c phiu c k vng tng hn khong 15% so vi gi ngy ra bo co. BN: c phiu c k
vng gim hn 15% so vi gi ngy ra bo co.GI: C phiu dao ng trong khong -15% n 15% so vi gi ngy ra bo co.
KHI NGHIN CU
Chng ti cung cp cc nghin cu kinh t v c phiu. Nhm nghin cu kinh t a ra cc bo co nh k v cc vn kinh t v
m, chnh sch tin t v th trng tri phiu. Nhm nghin cu c phiu a ra cc bo co v cng ty nim yt, cng ty tim nng
v ngnh. Khi Nghin Cu cng a ra cc bnh lun v nhn nh v th trng thng qua bn tin l The Investor Daily.
CNG TY C PHN CHNG KHON THNG LONG (TLS)
c thnh lp vo nm 2000, TLS l mt trong nhng cng ty chng khon u tin ti Vit Nam.TLS cung
cp cc dch v bao gm: mi gii, nghin cu v t vn u t, nghip v ngn hng u t, v cc nghip
v th trng vn. Vi 500 nhn vin lm vic ti cc vn phng H Ni, H Ch Minh, Hi Phng v cc vng
chin lc khc, TLS hin l mt trong nhng cng ty chng khon c bit ti nhiu nht ti Vit nam.
Khch hng ca chng ti bao gm cc nh u t c nhn v t chc, cc t chc ti chnh v cc doanh nghip.L thnh vin ca
tp on MB , Nng bao gm Ngn hng MB, Cng ty a c MB, Cng ty qun l ti sn MB v Cng ty qun l qu MB
CapNTLl.TLS c ngun lc ln v con ngi, ti chnh v cng ngh c th cung cp cho cc khch hng cc sn phm v dch v
ph hp m rt t cc cng ty chng khon khc c th cung cp. T khi c thnh lp, TLS c nhn nhn l:
Cng ty mi gii hng u, ng th nht v th phn mi gii t nm 2009;
Cng ty nghin cu c ting ni trn th trng vi i ng chuyn gia phn tch c kinh nghim, cung cp cc sn phm
nghin cu v kinh t v th trng chng khon;
Nh cung cp ng tin cy cc dch v v nghip v ngn hng u t cho cc khch hng cng ty.
VN PHNG
Tr s Cng ty: 98 Ngy Nh Kon Tum, Nhn Chnh, Thanh Xun, H Ni. in thoi: +84(4) 3726 2600. Website: www.tls.vn
Chi nhnh H Ch Minh: Tng 2, Ta nh Petro Vit Nam, 1-5 L Dun, Qun 1, H Ch Minh. in thoi: +84(8) 3910 6411.
Tr s Phn tch: Tng 7, 98 Ngy Nh Kon Tum, Nhn Chnh, Thanh Xun, H Ni. in thoi: +84(4) 4456 8668. E:
research@tls.vn
QUYN T CHI
Quan im th hin trong bo co ny l ca (cc) tc gi v khng nht thit lin h vi quan im chnh thc ca TLS. Nhng lp
lun th hin quan im trong bo co ny cng c th thay i bt c lc no m khng cn phi bo trc. Cc tc gi da vo
nhng thng tin t nhng ngun c coi l ng tin cy, d vy h cng khng kim chng mt cch c lp cc ngun tin ny.
Nhng khuyn ngh trong bo co ny c hiu l dnh cho nhng khch hng hin ti ca TLS. Bo co ny cng khng nn c
coi l c s a ra nhng khuyn ngh mua, bn hoc ng k u gi no. Bo co ny cng khng nn c phn pht thm
ton b hoc tng phn d vi mc ch no. Khng c bt c nhng cn nhc no c a ra lin quan ti mc tiu u t, tnh
hnh ti chnh hay nhu cu c th no ca ngi nhn.
Bn quyn.TLS 2000-2011,TT C QUYN C M BO. Tng phn hoc ton b bo co ny khng c ch bin li, lu gi
hoc phn pht bng bt c hnh thc hay phng tin g m khng c php ca TLS.
22

Website: www.tls.vn

Nguyen Viet Dzung

Trn Th Hu Phng

MBB 27102011 TLS

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NGN HNG THNG MI C PHN QUN I (MB)

Trn Th Thanh Tho

Cho vay/ TTS

Ngun: TLS tng hp

TLS Vietnam: 98 Nguy Nhu KonTum

Sales & Trading - Hanoi

Sales & Trading - HCMC

Tng trng (%)

EPS ( trn VL cui nm)

Li nhun sau thu

Bng CKT (t ng)

Tin mt, vng bc

D phng RR cho vay

Cho vay khch hng

Tin gi khch hng

Cng c phi sinh

D phng n xu/ cho vay

Cho vay KH/huy ng KH

Cho vay KH/ti sn

huy ng KH/ tng huy ng

Vay LNH / Gi LNH

Chi ph H/Tng thu nhp

Chi ph d phng/ Cho vay KH

LN cha phn phi

TLS Vietnam: 98 Nguy Nhu KonTum

Doanh thu, chi ph

Sales & Trading - Hanoi

Sales & Trading - HCMC

Ngun: BCTC 2010 cc NH

Cho vay khch hng

Huy ng khch hng

Tng thu nhp H

Thu nhp ph thun

Ngun: BCTC MB qua cc nm

TLS Vietnam: 98 Nguy Nhu KonTum

Sales & Trading - Hanoi

Sales & Trading - HCMC

Tng trng trung bnh hng nm cc ch tiu giai on 2007-2010 ca cc NH.

Ngun: TLS tng hp

Ngun: TLS tng hp

ROE, ROA ng mc cao: Vi chin lc s dng vn hp l sinh li cng vi

TLS Vietnam: 98 Nguy Nhu KonTum

Sales & Trading - Hanoi

Sales & Trading - HCMC

T l li bin (NIM) kh cao so vi cc ngn hng khc

- Sau gn 17 nm hot ng, MB thit lp c uy tn v thng hiu trn

- MB c quan h truyn thng vi cc doanh nghip qun i kh cht ch

- Cc c ng ln ca MB l cc khch hng c tim nng hp tc tt (Viettel,

V vy, trong thi gian qua mc d th trng, nn kinh t ni chung c nhiu

Chi ph hot ng kim sot mc thp

Ngun: TLS tng hp.

Vi chnh sch qun l chi ph hp l, t trng chi ph hot ng/thu nhp ca MB

Chi ph H/Thu nhp H ca cc NH

Chi ph H/ Tng thu nhp H (CIR)

Ngun: BCTC ca MB.

Ngun: BCTC cc NH nm 2010, TLS tng hp

So snh li nhun/nhn vin

Ngun: BCTN cc NH, TLS

TLS Vietnam: 98 Nguy Nhu KonTum

Sales & Trading - Hanoi

Sales & Trading - HCMC

S dng vn ngn hn cho vay trung v