You are on page 1of 34

Munich Chain Ladder: A Reserving

Method that Reduces the Gap


between IBNR Projections Based on
Paid Losses and IBNR Projections
Based on Incurred Losses
by Gerhard Quarg and Thomas Mack

REPRINT ACKNOWLEDGMENT

Munich Chain Ladder by Dr. Quarg and Dr. Mack is


being reprinted in Variance to give this important paper
wider visibility within the actuarial community. The editors of Variance invited the authors to submit their paper
for republication because we believe that the techniques
described in their work should be known to all actuaries
doing reserve analysis. We also hope to stimulate further
research in this area. This paper is reprinted from Bltter
der Deutschen Gesellschaft fr Versicherungs- und Finanzmathematik, volume 26, number 4, 2004, pages 597630.
We thank the editors of that journal and the authors for
allowing Variance to publish the paper.

KEYWORDS
Reserving methods, chain ladder, loss development, reconciliation of paid
and incurred projections

266

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

Munich Chain Ladder

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

267

Variance Advancing the Science of Risk

268

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

Munich Chain Ladder

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

269

Variance Advancing the Science of Risk

270

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

Munich Chain Ladder

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

271

Variance Advancing the Science of Risk

272

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

Munich Chain Ladder

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

273

Variance Advancing the Science of Risk

274

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

Munich Chain Ladder

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

275

Variance Advancing the Science of Risk

276

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

Munich Chain Ladder

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

277

Variance Advancing the Science of Risk

278

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

Munich Chain Ladder

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

279

Variance Advancing the Science of Risk

280

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

Munich Chain Ladder

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

281

Variance Advancing the Science of Risk

282

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

Munich Chain Ladder

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

283

Variance Advancing the Science of Risk

284

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

Munich Chain Ladder

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

285

Variance Advancing the Science of Risk

286

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

Munich Chain Ladder

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

287

Variance Advancing the Science of Risk

288

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

Munich Chain Ladder

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

289

Variance Advancing the Science of Risk

290

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

Munich Chain Ladder

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

291

Variance Advancing the Science of Risk

292

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

Munich Chain Ladder

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

293

Variance Advancing the Science of Risk

294

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

Munich Chain Ladder

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

295

Variance Advancing the Science of Risk

296

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

Munich Chain Ladder

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

297

Variance Advancing the Science of Risk

298

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

Munich Chain Ladder

VOLUME 2/ISSUE 2

CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY

299

You might also like