ENERGY FORCASTING

METHODS
The scenario approach has been widely
used in climate change and energy
efficiency policy making (Ghanadan
and Koomey, 2005).
In the energy and climate change area,
the use of scenarios by the
Intergovernmental Panel of Climate
Change (IPCC) has played an important
role in the policy debate.

 Scenarios are an integral part of the end-use approach

as well and accordingly, they are not new to energy
analysis.
A scenario is a story that describes a possible future
(Shell, 2003). In simple terms, scenarios refer to a
set of illustrative pathways that indicate how the
future may unfold (Ghanadan and Koomey, 2005).

 Evidently, they do not try to capture all possible

eventualities but try to indicate how things could
evolve. It is a particularly suitable approach in a
changing and uncertain world.
Scenarios give the analyst the opportunity to
highlight different combinations of various
influences, so that alternative future contexts can be
sketched out, and the energy implications examined

 Scenarios are based on intuition, but crafted as

analytical structuresThey do not provide a
consensus view of the future, nor are they
predictions (Shell, 2003).
Clearly, scenarios are distinct from forecasts in that
they explore a range of possible outcomesresulting
from uncertainty; in contrast, forecasts aim to identify
the most likely pathway and estimate uncertainties
(Ghanadan and Koomey, 2005).

 The strength of the scenario approach is its ability to

capture structural changes explicitly by considering
sudden or abrupt changes in the development paths.
The actual level of disaggregation and inclusion of
traditional energies and informal sector activities
depend on model implementation.
Theoretically it is possible to include these aspects
but how much is actually done in reality cannot be
generalized.

 Moreover, the development of plausible scenarios

that could capture structural changes, emergence of
new economic activities or disappearance of activities
is not an easy task.