Q2 2010

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MC LC
MC LC........................................................................................................................ 2
TNG THUT................................................................................................................. 5
PHN TCH SWOT........................................................................................................6
Phn tch SWOT kt cu h tng ca Vit Nam........................................................6
Phn tch SWOT nn kinh t Vit Nam......................................................................7
Phn tch SWOT nn chnh tr Vit Nam...................................................................8
TNG QUAN V TH TRNG..................................................................................9
Vit Nam........................................................................................................................ 9
KCH BN D BO NGNH CNG NGHIP........................................................12
Bng d liu ngnh xy dng v kt cu h tng....................................................12
Kch bn d bo kt cu h tng v xy dng.........................................................13
Bng d liu kt cu h tng giao thng...................................................................14
Bng d liu kt cu h tng giao thng...................................................................15
Kch bn d bo kt cu h tng giao thng (BIU TR17)..............................16
Tng quan v kt cu h tng giao thng.................................................................16
D n chnh D n mi v ang trin khai...........................................................19
Cng hng khng...................................................................................................................19
Cng bin...............................................................................................................................19
ng b...............................................................................................................................21
ng st...............................................................................................................................24

LNH VC NNG LNG V DOANH NGHIP CNG CH.............................26

(BNG TR3031).........................................................................................................26
Kch bn d bo h tng nng lng v dch v......................................................26
Tng quan h tng nng lng v dch v...............................................................26
D n chnh D n mi v ang trin khai...........................................................29
Cc nh my pht in...........................................................................................................29
ng ng dn......................................................................................................................33
Cung cp nc.......................................................................................................................33

MI TRNG KINH DOANH...................................................................................36

Mi trung kinh doanh Vit Nam.............................................................................36
Hn ch ca kh nng hon vn............................................................................................36
Cu trc quc gia................................................................................................................36
Cc ri ro v kh nng thc hin hon vn...........................................................................36
Ri ro th trng..................................................................................................................36
Ri ro quc gia....................................................................................................................37
2

Tng quan v khu vc................................................................................................37

Xp hng mi trng kinh doanh kt cu h tng ca khu vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng..37
Hn ch ca kh nng hon vn............................................................................................37
Ri ro hon vn thc t......................................................................................................38
Xp hng mi trung kinh doanh kt cu h tng Thng 1 nm 2010....................39
Bng Xp hng mi trung kinh doanh kt cu h tng ca khu vc Chu Thi Bnh
Dung....................................................................................................................................41

XP HNG TI CHNH D N.................................................................................42

Xp hng ti chnh d n ca Vit Nam................................................................42
Thit k v xy dng xp hng ti chnh d n ca Vit Nam..............................................42
Chun b v vn hnh............................................................................................................42
Xp hng ti chnh tng qut.................................................................................................42

Tng quan v vng.....................................................................................................42

Xp hng ti chnh d n: Trin vng cho Chu Thi Bnh Dng..................................42
Sn chi trong khu vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng, thng 1 nm 2010.................................43
Giai on k thut v xy dng........................................................................................45
Bng: nh gi k thut v xy dng...................................................................................46
Chun b v vn hnh.........................................................................................................47
Bng: Xp hng chun b v vn hnh..................................................................................47
nh gi tng th xp hng ti chnh cho khu vc chu Thi Bnh Dng..........48
Ri ro v nhng hn ch trong xp hng ti chnh d n ca BMI.............................49

TRIN VNG KINH T V M.................................................................................50

Kch bn chnh ca chng ti gi l st gim kp...................................................50
Hm cho tng trng..............................................................................................51
Chnh sch cn bng ti i hi nm 2011...............................................................52
VIN CNH CHNH TR............................................................................................53
Quan h vi Trung Quc trong u tranh quyn lc ni chnh..............................53
Trung Quc chim phn ln tho lun trn Internet...............................................53
Cuc ua chnh tr trc i hi 2011......................................................................54
TNG QUAN TON CU...........................................................................................56
iu chnh d bo kt cu h tng ton cu (Biu tr67)....................................56
Cc pht hin s b................................................................................................................56
Phng php lun v mt s gi nh then cht............................................................56
Xp hng kt cu h tng ca cc quc gia....................................................................57

PHNG PHP LUN................................................................................................60

Tiu ngnh kt cu h tng mi: Phng php lun...............................................60
3

D bo kt cu h tng: Phng php lun.............................................................60

Gi tr gia tng kt cu h tng v ngnh xy dng................................................61
Vic lm trong ngnh xy dng.................................................................................62
Ngun.......................................................................................................................... 62
D bo ngnh............................................................................................................. 62
Ngnh xy dng..........................................................................................................63
GDP ngnh xy dng v chi tiu kt cu h tng..........................................................63
Vic lm trong ngnh xy dng. Cc s liu ny c d bo cn c vo:..............64

Phng php x l s liu........................................................................................64

Ngnh xy dng.....................................................................................................................64
Vn u t.............................................................................................................................65
Vic lm trong ngnh xy dng.............................................................................................65

Xp hng mi trng kinh doanh kt cu h tng...................................................66

Tng quan v xp hng..........................................................................................................66
Gii hn ca vic hon vn tim nng............................................................................66
Cc ri ro lin quan ti hon vn thc t........................................................................66

Xp hng ti chnh d n...........................................................................................68

Tng quan v xp hng......................................................................................................68
Ri ro thit k v xy dng...............................................................................................68
Ri ro vn hnh thuc tng ngnh...................................................................................68
Cc yu t xp hng...........................................................................................................69

TNG THUT
Lnh vc kt cu h tng ca Vit Nam c nhng du hiu hi phc trong nm
2010 sau mt nm 2009 y tht vng. Nm 2009 gi tr ngnh cng nghip xy dng
gim 8% t 5,84 t USD nm 2008 xung cn 5,3 t USD nm 2009, s suy gim ny
phn ln l do iu kin th trng trong c nm 2009 khi m tc tng trng c d
bo l cao trong nhng nm cn li ca thi k d bo. Tc tng trng d kin s t
nh vo nm 2010 vi mc tng trng khong 23,9% v tip tc tng trng cho n
cui thi k d bo khi gi tr ca ngnh ny c c lng t 260 t VND
(15,12tUSD) vo nm 2014.
Cc d n kt cu h tng bao gm hng lot cc d n kt cu h tng trong qu
trc. Cc d n xy dng ng v cu c bit chim u th. D n xy dng ng
cao tc Trung Lng-M Thun-Cn Th di 82km vi tng vn u t 1,8 t USD l
mt trong nhng hot ng u t chnh ca Cng ty pht trin ng cao tc Bidv.
Trong lnh vc nng lng, rt nhiu d n nng lng chnh c cng b, bao gm
nh my nng lng nhit in, thy in v in than. D n ln nht l xy dng nh
my nhit in tr gi nhiu triu USD c hon thnh bi tp on Sumimoto. Nh
my ny c cng sut c tnh khong 1.320 Megawatt (MW) vi tng vn u t
khong 200 t Yn (2,5tUSD).
Theo bng nh gi mi trng kinh doanh ca BMI, Vit Nam cng vi
Philippine v Pakistan nm trong v tr p cht v mc ri ro ca th trng, vi s
im l 35/100. Cc nc ny phi gnh chu hu qu c lin quan ti qu trnh u thu
m thiu s nghin cu cn thn. Vit Nam
Theo nh gi ti chnh d n tng qut, Vit Nam c im rt thp cng vi th
ch php l cho hp tc cng t yu. Vit Nam cng phi i mt vi mt s vn nh
tham nhng, s can thip ca chnh ph i vi thu l qu cao. nh gi v Vit Nam
cng cho thy nhng ri ro v kha cnh chnh sch bt chp nhng s suy gim ca lm
pht. Nhng nh gi ri ro cng bao gm nhng vn v c cu trong mi trng kinh
doanh tng th ca cng ty. Xt tng th Vit Nam t 46,4 im.
Mc d c im thp do cc ri ro v th trng, Vit Nam vn c d bo l mt
trong nhng quc gia c hot ng mnh nht trong th trng chu trong cc nm tip
theo. S kt hp gia lao ng r v cc d n y tham vng ca Chnh ph s mang li
nhiu c hi cho cc cng ty xy dng quc t ti Vit Nam. Nhng cam kt ci thin
mi trng kinh doanh ca Chnh ph cng to iu kin cho cc nh u t.

PHN TCH SWOT

Phn tch SWOT kt cu h tng ca Vit Nam

im mnh

im yu

Cc c hi

Thch thc

C mt vi d n trong khung u t, c bit l trong lnh vc nng

lng v giao thng. Tnh trng c s h tng yu km hin ti ca Vit
Nam to iu kin thun li cho cc nh u t v cc cng ty xy dng
nc ngoi d dng thng thu trong cc d n u t.
Chnh ph mong mun thc y tng trng kinh t v m thng qua cc
chnh sch v pha cu bao gm cc sng kin chi tiu h tng.
Tng trng cao cng thu ht u t ca cc cng ty u t kt cu h
tng ln trn th gii.
Cc cng ty nh nc c quyn trong th trng kt cu h tng, c bit
l trong lnh vc cung cp dch v cng ch, v d nh tng cng ty in lc
gi v tr c quyn v u t trong lnh vc nng lng;
EU khng d on Vit Nam s tr thnh mt nn kinh t th trng y
trc nm 2018;
Vit Nam ph thuc rt ln vo nhp khu nc ngoi, theo c tnh mi
nm Vit Nam cn phi nhp khu khong 2 triu tn phi st, bng 80%
nhu cu hng nm ca quc gia ny.
nh gi v kha cnh ti chnh d n thp ca BMI cng ch ra rng mi
trng cho cc d n kt cu h tng cng nh vic trin khai hot ng ti
chnh ca d n y ri ro.
D bo tng trng rt cao trong 2010 s thu ht hn na cc nh u t;
Trong nhng nm ti, cng vi qu trnh th ha, nhu cu cho cc d
n kt cu h tng th cng s gia tng.
S suy gim ca kinh t v m ton cu cng nh gii hn ca cc ngun
ti chnh sn c c th e da ti cc k hoch chi tiu u t cho cc d n
kt cu h tng c trong khu vc cng v khu vc t;
Bt n v cc ri ro trong mi trng v m c th c nhng tc ng tiu
cc, nu c bt k nhng bt n no xy ra i vi cc vn chnh ca
KCHT Vit Nam

Phn tch SWOT nn kinh t Vit Nam

im mnh

im yu

Cc c hi

Thch thc

Vit Nam l mt trong nhng nn kinh t tng trng nhanh nht khu
vc chu trong nhng nm gn y vi GDP tng trng bnh qun
7,6%/nm trong giai on 2000-2007;
S bng n kinh t gip cho rt nhiu ngi Vit Nam thot khi i
ngho, t l i ngho chnh thc ca Vit Nam gim t 58% nm 1993
xung cn 20% nm 2004;
Vit Nam vn phi chu nhng khon thm ht ti khon vng lai, cn cn
thng mi v thm ht ngn sch ng k lm cho nn kinh t trong nc
d b tn thng khi kinh t ton cu tip tc c s suy gim trong nm
2010. Bc tranh ti kha b bao ph bi cc khon chi tiu ngoi d kin rt
ln;
n v tin ng qu yu v b kim sot cht ch lm gim ng c ci
tin cht lng xut khu v cng lm cho chi ph nhp khu cao, to ra p
lc lm pht;
L thnh vin ca WTO to iu kin thun li cho Vit Nam tip cn
vi th trng v ngun vn nc ngoi, ng thi gip cho cc doanh
nghip Vit Nam c sc cnh tranh cao hn;
Bt chp mt s vn kinh t v m hin ti, Chnh ph s tip tc ci t
nn kinh t theo hng th trng, bao gm t nhn ha mt s doanh
nghip nh nc v t do ha lnh vc ngn hng;
th ha s tip tc l mt ng c tng trng trong di hn. Theo d
bo ca Lin hp quc, dn s th ca Vit Nam s tng t 29% trong
tng dn s ln hn 50% trc nm 2040;
Lo lng v lm pht v thm ht to ra nhng thay i trong cch nhn
nhn v Vit Nam ca mt s nh u t. Nu Chnh ph tp trung qu ln
vo khuyn khch tng trng m khng gii quyt cc vn cn nguyn
ca lm pht th s to ra nhng bt n kinh t v m, iu ny c th dn ti
cuc khng hong tim nng;
Cc bt n kinh t v m ko di c th buc cc nh chc trch thc y
qu trnh ci cch nh h n lc n nh nn kinh t

Phn tch SWOT nn chnh tr Vit Nam

im mnh

im yu

Cc c hi

Thch thc

Chnh ph ng cng sn dng nh cam kt ci cch theo nh hng

th trng, mc d mt s chnh sch kinh t c th r rng s c tho
lun ti i hi ng nm 2011. H thng mt ng nhn chung l rt c li
cho n nh chnh tr ngn hn.
Mi quan h vi M ang ngy mt ci thin, Washington nhn nhn
H Ni nh l mt lin minh a l chnh tr trong khu vc ng Nam .
Tham nhng trong gii quan chc ca Chnh ph hm cha nhng e da
cn bn cho th ch nm quyn ca ng Cng sn.
Mc d cha nhiu song xut hin s khng hi lng ca dn chng
i vi vai tr lnh o trong vic kim sot qu cht ch cc bt ng chnh
tr.
Chnh ph Vit Nam nhn thc c tham nhng s e da ti vic
cm quyn v c nhng hnh ng nhm kim sot cht ch nn hi l
trong cc quan chc ca ng.
Vit Nam cng cho php cc nh lp php c th a ra cc pht ngn
ch trch cc chnh sch ca Chnh ph, iu ny m ra c hi cho vic
kim tra cho trong h thng mt ng.
S suy gim tng trng trong nm 2009-2010 c th l do s chp nhn
ca cng chng vi h thng chnh tr mt ng, cc cuc biu tnh ng
ph phn i cc iu kin kinh t c th dn ti cc th thch y v
s cm quyn phi dn ch.
Mc d s kim sot mt cch rt cht ch trong nc s bo m khng
c s thay i ln trong bi cnh chnh tr Vit Nam trong mt vi nm,
tuy nhin trong di hn nh nc mt ng c th l khng bn vng.
Trong nhng nm qua, cc mi quan h vi Trung Quc ngy cng suy
gim do quan im khng nh ngy cng r rng hn ca TQ i vi cc
hn o ang b tranh chp ti bin ng v cc ch trch trong nc i vi
cc d n u t ln ca TQ vo khai thc b xt ti min Trung do cc d
n ny c th dn ti s hy hoi mi trng trn quy m ln.

TNG QUAN V TH TRNG

Vit Nam
Sau khi ng Cng Sn Vit Nam thng qua chnh sch i mi theo hng th
trng vo nm 1986,Vit Nam ni ln nh l mt trong nhng nn kinh t y ha
hn chu , nu khng mun ni l trn c th gii. S chuyn dch dn dn v vng
chc t mt nc nng nghip thun ty vi s hu nh nc chim phn ln v s can
thip su ca Chnh ph sang nn kinh t th trng khuyn khch cc dng u t ca
nc ngoi v cc doanh nghip trong nc, nhng thnh phn kinh t hin ang tr
thnh ng lc tng trng chnh ca Vit Nam. Theo s liu ca UNCTAD, u t trc
tip nc ngoi ca Vit Nam t 6,7 t USD vo nm 2007, mt phn t trong s
l u t vo cc ngun ti sn c nh.
S yu km v c s h tng ang gy kh khn cho tng trng ca Vit Nam,
bi v vic vn hnh hot ng ca cc ngnh kinh t, chng hn nh cng nghip ph
thuc rt ln vo h thng kt cu h tng (c bit l nng lng v ng b). Th
trng B K hoch v u t ca Vit Nam, Cao Vit Sinh ni vo thng 8 nm
2008 rng nhng yu km trong kt cu h tng ang lm nh tr vic hp th cc ngun
vn u t nc ngoi vo Vit Nam.
Gim c iu hnh ca Cng ty PricewaterhouseCooper (PWC) ti ng Nam
pht biu trn Thi bo kinh t Si Gn rng: Vit Nam cn tng mc u t cho kt
cu h tng ln t nht gp i so vi tc tng trng GDP tng sc cnh tranh
quc gia.
Theo Vietnamnet trch dn kt qu kho st ca Ngn hng hp tc quc t Nht
Bn (JBIC) trong nm 2008 th cc nh u t ca Nht Bn t ra lo ngi v h thng h
tng vi quy m qu nh b ca Vit Nam, c bit l h thng ng b, cng v h
thng cp in. Khong 78% cc nh u t cho rng ng b ca Vit Nam cn c
nng cp, kin ny i vi h thng cp in l 60% v cng bin l 45%.
Thng ip trn ca JBIC dng nh c ch khi trong nm 2010 chng ta
c chng kin th trng kt cu h tng c thc y bi hng hng lot cc d n
xy dng ng b. u t nc ngoi vo lnh vc cng c ha hn tng thm vo
qu ba nm 2009. Tp on nha Formosa ca i Loan (tp on ni ln nhanh chng
vi t cch l mt trong nhng nh u t nc ngoi ln nht ti Vit Nam) xc nhn
cam kt vi Chnh ph xy dng mt cng bin nc su ti Sn Dng, gn khu kinh t
Vng ng ni tp on ny s u t 19,2 t USD vo cc d n sn xut thp v lc ha
du.
Theo s liu mi nht ca Cc u t nc ngoi ti Vit Nam, vn FDI cam kt
9

t thng mt n thng by nm 2008 t 45 t USD, vn cam kt c nm 2008 t 50 t

USD trong vn gii ngn l 6 t USD. Ti bt k th trng no th phn ln lng
vn c cam kt s khng c hin thc ha bi v cc d n c th b hy b hoc
cc nh u t thay i k hoch. S yu km ca h thng kt cu h tng cn tr qu
trnh sp t lin kt nhng l vn m Chnh ph Vit Nam c th x l c.
Tuy nhin, Vit Nam c nhng n lc quan trng thu ht cc nh u t v
Chnh ph Vit Nam coi kt cu h tng l lnh vc u tin u t. Trong nhng nm
sp ti, do p lc th ha v dn s gia tng s dn n p lc phi tng cng kt cu
h tng th. Theo BMI d bo, thi k 2009 - 2016 dn s Vit Nam s tng 10%.
B K hoch v u t a ra danh mc 60 d n h tng th cn c thc
hin trong giai on 2009 - 2016 vi tng vn u t vo khong 12 t USD. Cc d n
t xy dng h thng h tng nc sch v v sinh n lm mi ng b v mng li
giao thng s c trin khai ti 15 tnh, thnh trn c nc. Khong 18 d n trong danh
mc trn s c h tr bi ngun vn ODA t chu u, Nht Bn v Ngn hng pht
trin chu (ADB), phn vn cn li, theo B k hoch v u t, s c huy ng t
khu vc t thng qua c ch hp tc cng t (PPPs). Mt gii php khc l huy ng tri
phiu cho u t pht trin kt cu h tng song Chnh ph khng my ng h gii php
ny. Tuy nhin khi nhu cu v vn cho cc d n v nng lng, giao thng v cc d n
cng ch tng ln th tri phiu c bit dnh cho kt cu h tng c th tr nn ph bin.
Cc nh u t ang by t s quan tm trong vic dnh c cc hp ng
nhng quyn trong lnh vc vn ti ca Vit Nam nhm thit lp s hin din di hn
ca h ti quc gia ny. Tuy nhin, mt ln na chng ti cnh bo, kh khn v thch
thc vn l c trng ca mi trng kinh doanh ti Vit Nam, nhng thch thc ny bao
gm tham nhng (Vit Nam xp th 121 trong ch tiu nhn thc tham nhng nm
2008 ca t chc minh bch quc t), v thc t l mc d Chnh ph Vit Nam c
nhng n lc ng khen ngi, EU vn nhn mnh Vit Nam s khng c xem l nn
kinh t th trng cho ti trc nm 2018. Vit Nam gn nh vn thiu mt khung kh
php l cho pht trin cc hp ng nhng quyn mc d c mt vi quy ch ang
c xy dng.
Ti hi ngh Tng cng hp tc cng t trong u t kt cu h tng Vit
Nam do Ngn hng pht trin chu (ADB) t chc vo thng 2 nm 2009, vn
trng yu m cc i biu tho lun l s thiu vng mt khung kh php l khuyn
khch m hnh hp tc cng t, hn ch ny cn tr vic pht trin m hnh hp tc
cng t ti Vit Nam. Theo Hng lut Duane Morris, bn tr ngi chnh hn ch s tham
gia ca khu vc t trong pht trin kt cu h tng Vit Nam, l: s yu km trong
c cu t chc ca cc cng ty nh nc hin ang chim u th trong lnh vc xy dng
10

v dch v cng; kh khn trong vic tip cn ngun vn ni a; cc d n c th b tr

hon lu di do nhng yu km ca mi trng php l lm tng chi ph v cui cng l
s h tr ca Chnh ph thng xuyn khng chc chn.
V lu di, nhng vn trn s tr thnh cn tr chnh cho s pht trin ca nn
kinh t. Trong bo co ti Hi ngh ca ADB, Hng lut Duane Morris cng lu rng
Chnh ph Vit Nam c th p ng c mt phn t nhu cu vn cho u t pht trin
kt cu h tng v ngun h tr pht trin chnh thc (phn ln l t JBIC) s p ng
thm mt phn t na. iu ny c ngha l 50% nhu cu ti chnh cn li khng th
c p ng t khu vc cng, trong khi ngun vn ny hin vn ang l ngun ti chnh
ch yu cho u t kt cu h tng ti Vit Nam.
Thch thc chnh trong mi trng u t ti Vit Nam c phn nh trong v th
yu km v ti chnh d n ri ro dng nh cao hn mt cht trong giai on khi ng
ca vng i d n mc d s khc nhau so vi giai on hai hoc l c th b qua i
vi ri ro ton b tng i ln lm cho quc gia ny c tng s im l 49,5/100.
Mc d cc nh gi ca VN a ra mang tnh v m do s suy gim ca lm pht
nhng cc ri ro ny cng hm cha v cu trc su xa trong mi trng kinh doanh ca
VN v d nh tham nhng, kim sot, nh thu qu cao v s can thip vi mt s
ngnh cng nghip nh in, dch v cng ch ca Chnh ph.
Do lin quan ti v sp cu Cn Th xy ra vo thng 9 nm 2007 lm 52 ngi
cht, tp on Taisei v Kajima b tm dng tham gia vo cc d n ng b v cu
Vit Nam hn mt nm nay. Hng tin Bloomberg trch dn pht biu ca ng Trn
Quc Vit (Gim c c quan kim sot cht lng thuc B Giao thng v Vn ti) cho
rng: y l n trng pht i vi cc cng ty ca Nht. Theo Bloomberg, cy cu
sp v s suy yu khng lng trc c ca hai dm cu hai bn lm cho hai
dm ny b gy dn n sp cu. Pht ngn vin ca Taisei v Kajima xc nhn h
nhn c thng bo v vic tm dng hot ng vo ngy 20 thng 6 nm 2009.
Cng lin quan ti vn pht trin, bo Thanh Nin a tin B Giao thng Vn
ti Vit Nam ra thng bo cm 34 nh thu trong nc tham gia vo cc d n do
Ngn hng Th Gii ti tr trong vng 3 nm v cc d n do B GTVT lm ch u t
trong vng mt nm lm gng cho vic vi phm quy ch u thu. Cc nh thu ny
bao gm: 16 nh thu ca tnh Qung Ngi, 8 nh thu ca tnh Lo Cai, 4 nh thu ca
H Ni, 4 nh thu ca Nam nh v 2 nh thu ca H Giang.

11

KCH BN D BO NGNH CNG NGHIP

Bng d liu ngnh xy dng v kt cu h tng

Gi tr ngnh xy dng
(t ng)
Gi tr ngnh xy dng
(t la)
Tc tng trng thc
t ngnh xy dng bnh
qun nm
T trng ngnh xy dng
trong GDP
Tng vn u t (t
ng)
Tng vn u t (t
la)
T trng u t trn GDP

2007
79,617

2008
95,969

2009f
2010f
2011f
2012f
2013f
94,877 126,115 157,745 189,959 224,542

4.95

5.84

5.34

6.73

8.41

10.41

12.7

15.1

12.01

0.37

-8.14

23.93

18.58

14.42

12.2

10.7

6.96

6.49

5.77

6.84

7.60

8.22

8.7

9.0

437,702 531,987 564,432 624,392 696,406 776,326 863,210

954,133

27.2

32.4

31.7

33.3

37.1

42.5

49

55

38.3

36.0

34.3

33.9

33.6

33.6

33.3

33.1

T l vn u t BQ u
ngi
318.1
373.0
360.8
373.7
410.8
464.3
524
Tng trng vn u t
thc t BQ nm
24.2
3.8
1.0
3.0
4.5
6.0
6.0
Vic lm trong ngnh xy
dng, nghn ngi
2,268
2,378
2,408
2,499
2,639
2,834
3,040
Tng trng vic lm
trong ngnh xy dng
6.14
4.87
1.26
3.76
5.60
7.39
7.29
hng nm
Tng lc lng lao ng,
45,462.8 46,563.1 47,690.0 48,844.1 50,026.2 51,236.9 52,476.9
nghn ngi
T l nhn lc xy dng
trong tng s
T trng gi tr KCHT
trong xy dng
Gi tr KCHT, t ng
Gi tr KCHT, t la
Tng trng gi tr thc
t KCHT (%)
T tng gi tr KCHT
trong GDP

2014f
260,829

588
6.0
3,259
7.21
53,746.9

4.99

5.11

5.05

5.12

5.27

5.53

5.79

6.06

42.48

45.71

44.87

47.26

48.89

49.98

50.81

51.45

33825

43865

42574

59604

77115

94951

114100

134193

2.10

2.67

2.39

3.18

4.11

5.20

6.43

7.78

15.40
2.96

6.68
2.97

-9.94
2.59

31.00
3.23

22.88
3.72

17.13
4.11

14.17
4.41

12.11
4.65

F= d bo Ngun: Tng Cc Thng k Vit Nam, IMF, ILO, BMI

12

Kch bn d bo kt cu h tng v xy dng

Theo d bo ca chng ti, kt cu h tng s chim bnh qun khong 49,7% trong
tng gi tr ngnh xy dng trong giai on 2010 2014, ng ngha vi vic u t vo
kt cu h tng chim u th trong lnh vc xy dng Vit Nam. T l ny cn cao hn
mc trung bnh ca th gii l 36,4% cho thy Vit Nam thc s ang l mt trong nhng
th trng nng ng nht v kt cu h tng trn ton cu.
Tuy nhin v mt gi tr, Vit Nam t ra tng i yu km. Theo s liu ca Tng
cc thng k, gi tr gia tng ngnh xy dng nm 2008 ch t 96 t VND (khong 5,8t
USD). Cng theo Tng cc thng k c lng s b mi y, gi tr thc t ngnh xy
dng ch tng trng gn 0,4% trong nm 2008. Nhng theo d bo ca chng ti gi tr
thc t ca ngnh xy dng s tng trng 23,1% vo nm 2010 v t khong 6,73 t
USD. Trong c s h tng s ng gp 47,3%, tng ng 59 t VND (khong 3,8t
USD). Gi tr ngnh kt cu h tng c d bo s t khong 7,8t USD vo cui thi
k d bo.
C ti nhy vt mnh m
Gi tr ngnh xy dng, t ng

2014f

2013f

2012f

2011f

2010f

52
50
48
46
44
42
40

2009f

2008e

300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0

Gi tr ngnh xy dng (t ng) LHS

T trng gi tr KCHT trong tng gi tr xy dng RHS
e=c lng, f=d bo. Ngun:Tng Cc thng k Vit Nam, BMI

Theo d bo ca chng ti c lnh vc vc xy dng v kt cu h tng u s hi

phc mt cch rt nhanh v mnh m. D bo tng trng thc t bnh qun ca ngnh
xy dng trong giai on 2010 - 2014 s tng 8,1%/nm, i vi lnh vc kt cu h tng
con s ny cn cao hn, t mc 19,5%/nm.
Chng ti tin tng mt s d n trong mng li kt cu h tng, c bit l
trong lnh vc giao thng s bo m gia tc cho ngnh xy dng ca Vit Nam, mc d
u t t nhn c th i xung. Lnh vc kt cu h tng ti Vit Nam thc s c sc
mnh, th hin ch trong khi gi tr thc t ca ton ngnh xy dng c d bo s t
mc tng trng lnh mnh khong 24% vo nm 2010 th lnh vc kt cu h tng c
k vng s t mc cao hn vi tc tng trng 31%.
13

KT CU H TNG GIAO THNG

Bng d liu kt cu h tng giao thng

2007
59.50

2008
2009f
2010f
2011f
2012f
2013f
63.64
62.78
67.12
69.66
71.28
72.46

T trng gi tr KCHT
giao thng so vi tng
gi tr KCHT
Gi tr KCHT giao thng,
t ng
20,126.0 27,916.0 26729.4 40006.2 53718.2 67684.2 82678.5
Gi tr KCHT giao thng,
t la
1.25
1.70
1.50
2.14
2.86
3.71
4.66
Tng trung gi tr thc
KCHT giao thng (%)
T trng KCHT giao
thng trn
Tng gi tr xy dng

T trng gi tr cu,
ng trn tng gi tr
KCHT giao thng
Gi tr KCHT cu ng,
t ng

2014f
73.34

98412.3
5.71

24.72

15.71

-11.25

40.67

27.77

20.00

16.15

13.53

25.28

29.09

28.17

31.72

34.05

35.63

36.82

37.73

29.90

21.21

19.86

12.55

9.31

7.36

6.00

5.02

6017.66 5921.43 5307.64 5021.69 5001.12 4980.55 4959.98

4939.41

Gi tr KCHT cu ng,
t la
0.37

0.36

0.30

0.27

0.27

0.27

0.28

0.29

Tc tng trng thc

t gi tr KCHT cu
ng

-17.70

-24.60

-17.37

-14.39

-6.91

-6.41

-6.41

-5.91

T trng gi tr cu,
ung trn tng gi tr
KCHT giao thng

17.79

13.50

12.47

8.43

6.49

5.25

4.35

3.68

7.56

6.17

5.59

3.98

3.17

2.62

2.21

1.89

37.99

42.80

43.38

48.33

50.58

51.93

52.88

53.56

11948.6 11596.3 19334.5 27169.6 35149.7 43716.4

52705.1

T trng gi tr cu,
ung trn tng gi tr
ngnh xy dng
T trng gi tr ng st
trn tng gi tr KCHT
giao thng
Gi tr KCHT ng st,
t ng
Gi tr KCHT ng st,
t la

7645.85
0.48

0.73

0.65

1.03

1.45

1.93

2.46

3.06

14

Bng d liu kt cu h tng giao thng

2007

2008

2009f

2010f

2011f

2012f

2013f

2014f

Tng trng gi tr thc t

ngnh ng st
75.46

33.28

-9.95 57.73

34.02

23.37

18.37

15.06

22.60

27.24

27.24 32.44

35.23

37.02

38.31

39.28

9.60

12.45

12.22 15.33

17.22

18.50

19.47

20.21

26.30

25.96

26.63 25.92

25.43

25.14

24.94

24.79

5293.13

7246.03

13662.8

17016.9

20617.6

24395.7

0.33

0.44

0.40 0.55

0.73

0.93

1.16

1.41

23.72

13.90

-8.78 36.70

25.26

18.55

15.16

12.82

15.65

16.52

16.72 17.40

17.72

17.92

18.07

18.18

6.65

7.55

7.50 8.22

8.66

8.96

9.18

9.35

5.81

10.03

10.13 13.20

14.68

15.57

16.19

16.64

1168.31

2799.92

7884.58

10537.0

13384.4

16372.1

0.07

0.17

0.15 0.28

0.42

0.58

0.75

0.95

259.41

116.66

-10.27 85.97

42.82

27.64

21.02

16.82

3.45

6.38

6.36 8.86

10.22

11.10

11.73

12.20

5.00

5.55

5.96

6.28

T trng gi tr dung st
trn tng gi tr KCHT
T trng gi tr KCHT
ng st trn tng ngnh
xy dng

T trng gi tr ngnh
hng khng trn tng gi
tr KCHT giao thng
Gi tr KCHT hng
khng, t ng
Gi tr KCHT hng
khng, t la

7117.20 10369.7

Tng trng thc t gi

tr ngnh hng khng
T trng gi tr ngnh
hng khng trn tng gi
tr KCHT
T trng gi tr KCHT
hng khng trn tng
ngnh xy dng

T trng gi tr ngnh cng

v vn ti thy trn tng
gi tr KCHT giao thng
T trng gi tr ngnh cng
v vn ti thy trn tng
gi tr KCHT
Tng gi tr ngnh cng v
vn ti thy trn, t ng

2708.26 5280.32

Tc tng trng thc

gi tr ngnh cng v vn
ti thy (%)

Tng gi tr ngnh cng v

vn ti thy trn tng gi
tr KCHT
Tng gi tr ngnh cng
v vn ti thy trn tng
gi tr ngnh xy dng
1.47

2.92

2.85

4.19

15

e/f= c lng/d bo ca BMI Ngun: Tnh ton ca BMI

Kch bn d bo kt cu h tng giao thng (BIU TR17)

Kt cu h tng giao thng vn l lnh vc ch yu, chim ti 67,1% tng u t
kt cu h tng trong nm 2010. Lnh vc ny c d bo s tng trng 73,3% vo
nm 2014. Trong kt cu h tng giao thng, c s h tng ng st vn chim mt t
trng rt ln vi 48,3% tng gi tr ngnh h tng trong nm 2010, tng ng vi tc
tng trng thc t 57,7% trong nm 2010. Gi tr ca kt cu h tng ngnh ng
st d kin s tng hn 4 ln trong c thi k d bo, t mc 0,65 t USD nm 2009 ln
3,1t USD vo nm 2014.
Theo chui d liu mi ca chng ti, lnh vc cng bin s tng trng nhiu
nht trong kt cu h tng giao thng. T trng ng gp ca khu vc cng bin trong
tng gi tr kt cu h tng giao thng s tng t con s c lng khong 10,03% nm
2008 ln 16,6% nm 2014. T trng ca ngnh ng b trong tng gi tr ton ngnh
giao thng s gim dn trong thi k d bo m nguyn nhn ch yu l do u t trong
nhng lnh vc km pht trin hn (nh ng st, cng bin, cng hng khng) c k
vng l s tng trng mnh trong nhng nm sp ti.
Ngnh hng khng s ng gp n nh khong mt phn t gi tr cho kt cu h
tng giao thng trong sut thi k d bo. Hng khng s l ngnh c ng gp ln th
hai cho h tng giao thng sau ng st.

Tng quan v kt cu h tng giao thng

Trong nm 2010 vic xy dng cu v ng c nhng bc tin ng k vi
mt s d n c bit ang c trin khai.
D n ng cao tc H Ni-Hi Phng c Ngn hng Pht trin Vit Nam
(VDB) thng qua vi mc tiu xy dng 105,5km ng cao tc, 6 ln ng v ci to
b mt ng. Dc theo tuyn ng ny cng s c 2 trm thu ph, 6 im giao ct, 9
cu ln, 21 cu nh, v 22 cu vt c xy dng. Cng ty pht trin ng cao tc
Bidv (BEDC) cng nhn c quytnh ph duyt dn xy dng ng cao tc
Trung Lng-M Thun. BEDC s u t 1,8 t USD cho vic xy dng 82km ng
cao tc Trung Lng-M Thun-Cn Th.
S gia tng mt giao thng th v tng trng kinh t nhanh Vit Nam
lm tng khi lng xut nhp khu ca nc ny dn n tng p lc v h tng kt ni
gia cc cng v khu vc ni a. Vit Nam c 220.000 km ng b, l nc c chiu
di ng b ln th 20 trn th gii nhng ch c 19% trong s c ri nha cho
thy iu kin h tng giao thng Vit Nam cn rt km. Cng lu rng, 10 nm
trc y nhng d n quy m ln c trin khai v rt nhiu trong s ang trong
16

giai on u t hoc chun b u t, nh vy t l ng c ri nha ang c ci

thin. B Giao thng Vn ti c tnh giai on n nm 2020 Vit Nam cn khong 60 t
USD u t cho cc d n h tng thng.
Lnh vc cng cng chng kin nhng hot ng tha thun rt tt p trong h
tng giao thng. Thng 9 nm 2009, A.P Moller-Maersk Terminals (APM Terminals),
mt nh khai thc cng quc t k tha thun lin doanh vi mt cng ty thuc Tng
cng ty Hng hi Vit Nam (Vinalines) pht trin cng bin ti Vit Nam. Lin doanh
ny s hot ng trong cc lnh vc pht trin cng hng ha, cng container, v cc
trung tm trung chuyn ti Vit Nam.
Chnh ph Vit Nam c k hoch y tham vng nhm hin i ha v m rng
cng hng khng ti quc gia ny, mc d vy mt s cng hng khng trong danh
mc u t nhiu nm nh cng hng khng quc t Long Thnh nhng vn tin trin rt
chm.Tuy nhin, thin ch ca Chnh ph trong vic trin khai cc d n cng to ra s
kh quan chc chn. u thng 5 nm 2009 B Giao thng Vn ti thng bo s ci to
v m rng mt s cng hng khng chnh ca Vit Nam. K hoch ny bao gm nng
cp cc cng hng khng quc t mi Ph Quc, Long Thnh, Chu Lai, Cam Ranh,
Nng v Hu, m rng sn bay Ni Bi H Ni v sn bay Ct Bi ti Hi Phng.
Trong lnh vc hng hi, hot ng ch yu l tp trung thc y nng lc ca khu
kinh t pha nam, c bit l khu vc sng Th Vi. Hu ht cc nh khai thc cng quc
t c quyn li trong khu vc nh: Hutchison Port Holdings, Singapores PSA
International, Saigon Port, DenmarksMaersk and Frances Compagnie Maritime
d'Affrtement-CompagnieGnrale Maritime (CMACGM)u quan tm n s vn
hnh v pht trin ca cc cng bin Vit Nam trn sng Th Vi nhm n lc tham gia
vo th trng ha hn nht chu . Americanshiper.com c tnh tng s tin u t
vo cc cng bin Vit Nam xp x khong 4,5t USD, c ti 8 cu cng mi ang c
xy dng ti Vng Tu, dc theo knh hnh ch S v hu ht cc cng ny c k vng
i vo hot ng t nm 2011. Cc cng sng gn thnh ph H Ch Minh tip nhn hn
70% tng khi lng container hng hi.
Vic u t k trn l cn thit. Xp hng ca bo co cnh tranh ton cu do
Din n kinh t Th Gii cng b hng nm ch ra im yu trong lnh vc h tng
cng bin Vit Nam.
Bng: Nhng cng yu km

Lin h:Xp hng cht lng h tng trn 134 nc

17

Xp hng v h tng
Cht lng ng b
Cht lng ng st
Cht lng h tng cng
Cht lng h tng vn ti hng khng
Cht lng cung cp in

97
102
66
112
92
104

Ngun: Bo co cnh tranh ton cu 2008-2009. Bo co trn ch ra 90 nhc im ca Vit

Nam

Mc d Vit Nam c n 266 cng cc loi nhng hu ht u lc hu v gn

nh khng c h tng kt ni vn chuyn hng ha t cc cng i ni khc.
Cng ty lin doanh t vn Vit-Nht (VJC), n v chu trch nhim chnh trong
vic nghin cu kh thi d n xy dng ng st cao tc Vit Nam a ra chi ph
c tnh cho d n ny l 55,8 t USD. y l mt khon tin khng l i vi mt d n
v ngn kh quc gia. Bo Saigon Times ng ti thng tin v cc ngun vn huy ng
cho d n theo theo c tnh ca VJC s bao gm: 35t USD t ngn sch quc gia v tri
phiu Chnh ph dnh cho xy dng kt cu h tng, phn cn li s huy ng t VJC v
cc nh thu khc trong ch yu l cc khon chi cho gii phng mt bng v trang
thit b. Bn k hoch cui cng s c trnh by trc Quc hi vo thng 12 nm
2009.
Bng: Cc mc tiu chnh ca tng cng ty ng st Vit Nam
Nng cp tuyn ng st Bc-Nam, nng tc ca tu ch khch, tu ch hng ln tng
ng l 100 120km/h v 100km/h .
Nng cp tuyn ng st thuc hnh lang ng-Ty t tc ti a l 80 - 100 km/h i
vi tu ch khch v 60 80km/h i vi tu ch hng .
Tp trung pht trin cc tuyn ng st mi nh TPHCM-Vng Tu, TPHCM-Cn Th,
Thp Chm- Lt, Yn Bi-Tuyn Quang-Bc Thi, Lin Chiu-Dung Qut v.v..
Tin hnh kho st v chun b kt ni mng li ng st vi tuyn ng SingaporeCn Minh nhm mc tiu b sung cc tuyncn thiu nh TPHCM-Phnompeng, CampuchiaVit Nam
Ngun: ng st Vit Nam

Hai trung tm th ln l H Ni v thnh ph H Ch Minh ang tng cng kh

nng u t vo pht trin kt cu h tng. Cc quan chc ca hnh ph H Ch Minh
c tnh n nm 2020 thnh ph s cn 15 t USD u t vo h tng giao thng. u
nm 2009, d n ng st th H Ni c khi cng xy dng, cng thi gian
thnh ph H Ch Minh thng bo s cung ng 2 t USD cho cc d n v giao thng
nhm kch thch ngnh xy dng pht trin t thc y tng trng kinh t.

18

D n chnh D n mi v ang trin khai

Cng hng khng
Thng 12 nm 2010, Cng ty qun l ti sn ca M Rockingham Asset
Management trnh k hoch xy dng cng hng khng quc t Vn n. D n tr
gi 1,2 t USD ny s c trin khai theo hnh thc BOT, cng hng khng Vn n
c k vng chnh thc i vo hot ng vo nm 2014 v quyn iu hnh s c
chuyn giao cho Chnh ph Vit Nam vo nm 2048.
Thng 11 nm 2010, tnh Qung Nam ku gi mt nh u t mi tip
tc trin khai d n sn bay quc t Chu Lai ang b tr hon. Thng 4 nm 2009 hng
t vn v qun l d n ca Ty Ban Nha (Garuda Group) k mt bin bn ghi nh
tin hnh nghin cu kh thi nhng khng thnh cng. Cng ty Airis International
Holdings ca M by t s quan tm n vic pht trin cc cng hng khng v
va trnh mt k hoch u t mi cho pht trin cng hng khng Chu Lai.

Q1 2010

Q2 2009

Cng hng khng

Theo bo co ca Intellasia, thng 9 nm 2009 Ph Th tng
Vit Nam Hong Trung Hi ch o Cng ty Hng khng pha
Nam a ra k hoch xy dng cng hng khng quc t Long
Thnh ti tnh ng Nai. Cng hng khng ny s c xy dng
trn mt khu vc c din tch l 50km2 vi nng lc thng qua
100triu hnh khch mi nm. Theo c tnh, chi ph cho dn
ny c th ln n 6t USD.
Cng theo bo co ca Intellasia, thng 7 nm 2009, Th tng
Chnh ph Vit Nam Nguyn Tn Dng thng qua mt khon
u t tr gi 10,52t VND (590triu USD) nng cp sn bay
quc t Cam Ranh. Sau khi nng cp sn bay ny s c kh nng
tip nhn 27 my bay trong gi cao im, nng lc thng qua t
5,5triu lt khch v 100.000tn hng ha vo nm 2020.
Sau khi m vn phng i din khu vc mi ti Vit Nam vo
u thng 8 nm 2009, hng t vn v qun l d n Garuda Asea
Co k mt bin bn ghi nh vi cng ty M Airis International
Holdings v chnh quyn tnh Qung Nam thc hin nghin
cu kh thi d n xy dng sn bay quc t Chu Lai. Chi ph c
tnh cho d n nykhong 1t USD.

Cng bin
Thng 1 nm 2010, quy hoch tng th pht trin h thng cng bin Vit
Nam c ph duyt, theo tng vn u t cn thit tnh n nm 2020 l 360
440 t VND (19,5 23,8t USD). Mc tiu ca quy hoch l tng cng nng lc vn
19

ti bin ca Vit Nam ln mc 500-600 triu tn hng ha vo nm 2015, 900-1000

triu tn vo nm 2020 v 2100 triu tn vo nm 2030. Mc tiu trc mt n nm
2015 l xy dng cng trung chuyn quc t Vn Phong ti tnh Khnh Ha, pht
trin t hp cng bin Lch Huyn Hi Phng v cng bin ti khu lc du Nghi
Sn.
Thng 11 nm 2009, Vit Nam khi cng xy dng cng Vn Phong ti
tnh Khnh Ha. Cng container quc t vi chi ph u t 3,6t USD ny c xy
dng nhm mc ch thc y s pht trin kinh t ca c vng. Cng Vn Phong vi
42 cu cng c kh nng tip nhn 200 triu tn hng ha mi nm v d kin i vo
hot ng t nm 2020.
Thng 11 nm 2009, Vinalines bt u trin khai xy dng t hp cng bin
quc t ti vnh Vn Phong thuc tnh Khnh Ha. Giai on u, Vinaline s xy
dng hai cu cng vi tng vn u t 4 t VND (250triu USD) v theo k hoch s
hon thnh vo nm 2013. Giai on u s c tin hnh t nm 2010 n nm
2015.
Thng 10 nm 2009, Cng ty tu thy ln nht ca Nht Bn l Mitsui
OSK Line (MOL) thng bo h s thnh lp mt cng ty khai thc vn hnh cng
xy dng v qun l cng container mi ti Ci Mp thuc tnh B Ra- Vng Tu
Vit Nam.
Thng 10 nm 2009, nh iu hnh v pht trin cng ca Mundra Port
n, Mundra Port and Special Economic c mt cuc hi tho vi Chnh ph
Vit Nam v vic xy dng mt cng chuyn ch qung st v than ti Vit Nam.
Gim c ca Mundra Port, Rajeeva Sinha ni rng cng ty ang c k hoch xy
dng t nht mt cng trong khu vc trong vng 3 n 4 nm ti.

Q1 2010

Cng bin
Thng 9 nm 2009, Tp on nha Formosa ca i Loan ni h hi vng
cng Sn Dng s tr thnh cng nc su ln nht trong khu vc ng
Nam . Cng ty ny ang d nh xy dng cng Sn Dng vi chi ph
u t 1,2t USD v thit k cng c th tip nhn tu c ti trng t
200.000 - 400.000 DWT.
Theo bo co ca Intellasia, thng 8 nm 2009 tng gim c cng ty c
phn Gemadept (GMD) ni cng ty s ph trch hai d n cng l cng
nc su Ci Mp v trung tm thng mi L Li Plaza trong Q110.
Vi hai d n ny, GMD thnh lp cng ty c phn Gemadept-Terminal
Link l lin doanh gia GMD v i tc Egypt-based Terminal Link (mt
thnh vin ca CMA CGM) tin hnh cng vic. 39,5t USD c
GMD ng gp vo vic quy hoch t ai cho cng Ci Mp. D n s
c h tr t cc ngn hng a phng.
Thng 8 nm 2009, T chc hp tc quc t Nht Bn (JICA) v B Giao
20

Q2 2009

thng Vn ti ca Vit Nam quyt nh p dng m hnh PPP i vi

cng ca ng quc t Hi Phng. Giai on u ca d n Chnh ph
Nht Bn s h tr mt khon vn vay ODA tr gi 260triu USD.
Vinalines s u t 165triu USD xy dng hai cng container.
Ngy 11 thng 7 nm 2009 d n cng bin Ci Cui ti thnh ph Cn
Th khi ng giai on hai bao gm xy dng 500m cu cng, lp
t trang thit b vn hnh hin i vi tng vn u t 600t VND
(34,3triu USD). Cng trnh d kin hon thnh trc nm 2015. Theo
Th tng Chnh ph Vit Nam Nguyn Tn Dng, d n ny s gip
gim chi ph vn ti trong khu vc ng bng song Cu Long v gim
thiu tnh trng qu ti cho cng Si Gn.
Ngy 3 thng 6 nm 2009 t hp th nht d n cng nc su Tn CngCi Mp ti tnh B Ra-Vng Tu i vo hot ng. y l cng nc
su u tin ca Vit Nam do cng ty lin doanh gia cng Si Gn v
PSA International thc hin. Tn Cng c kh nng tip nhn tu c ti
trng 80.000DWT, nng lc thng qua 1,1triu TEUs mi nm. Tng vn
u t cho d n ny l 240triu USD.
Thng 5 nm 2009, cng Si Gn-Hip Phc ti thnh ph H Ch Minh
c khi cng vi chi ph c tnh 337triu USD. Tuy nhin, theo thng
tin t a phng th hin vn cha c ng giao thng kt ni n cng.
Thng 4 nm 2009, cng ty c phn u t v Pht trin Vn ti bin Tri
Thin ti thnh ph H Ch Minh c cp php xy dng cng trung
chuyn nc su quc t ti Cn o (thuc tnh B Ra-Vng Tu) vi
chi ph c tnh khong 300triu USD. Cng Cn o mi c din tch
300ha, c kh nng tip nhn c tu siu trng, d kin khi lng
hng thng qua 10triu tn/nm.
Thng 4 nm 2009, ng Dng Vn Ha ph tng gim c tp on
Than-Khong sn ca Vit Nam (Vinacomin) thng bo Vinacomin s
xy dng mt cng nc su vi chi ph 250triu USD ti mi Khe G,
tnh Bnh Thun. y s l cng chuyn dng nhp khu than , xut
khu qung nhm v khong sn, c kh nng tip nhn tu c ti trng
80.000DWT.

ng b
Thng 12 nm 2009, d n ng cao tc Ni Bi-Lo Cai t chc u
thu gi A7. Giai on u ca gi thu ny l xy dng 26,7km ng. Cng ty xy
dng ng v Cu Qung Chu-Trung Quc trng thu vi gi tha thun 1600t
VND (86,6triu USD), d kin gi thu c thc hin trong vng 38 thng.
Thng 12 nm 2009, hng k thut DHV ca H Lan dnh c hp ng
tr gi 100 triu USD cho vic m rng 250km sng MKng ti Vit Nam bao gm
tng su v cho khc sng ny nhm mc ch xy dng 18 cu bc qua sng
gii quyt vn giao thng.
Thng 12 nm 2009, ngn hng Komern Banka ca cng ha Sc (KB
Bank) ng cho vay vn xy dng ng cao tc H Ni-Hi Phng v chp
thun Ngn hng pht trin Vit Nam (VDB) bo lnh khon vay ny trong vng
21

10 nm. D n ny bao gm xy dng 105,5km ng cao tc 6 ln ng, mt ri

nha, ng thi xy dng 2 trm sot v, 6 im giao ct, 9 cu ln, 21 cu nh v 22
cu vt dc theo tuyn ng.
Thng 11 nm 2009, B Giao thng Vn ti Vit Nam bt u khi ng d
n xy dng tuyn cao tc Thi Nguyn-Bc Ninh-H Ni di 61,3km vi quy m 4
ln ng nhm mc ch gim ti tc nghn giao thng cho Quc l 3, to thun li
cho giao thng gia H Ni v cc tnh pha Bc. D n ny s bao gm xy dng 6
im giao ct, 29 cu v cc cng trnh ph tr khc. T chc hp tc quc t Nht
Bn (JICA) s cho vay 6.100t VND (338,89 triu USD) trn tng s 8.100 t VND
vn u t ca d n (450 triu USD). D kin d n s hon thnh vo nm 2013.
Thng 11 nm 2009, y ban nhn dn tnh Tin Giang cho php Cng
ty pht trin ng cao tc Vit Nam Bidv Expressway Development Company
(BEDC) thi cng xy dng ng cao tc Bc Nam on Trung Lng-M Thun.
BEDC s chi ra 1,8t USD cho vic thc hin d n xy dng 82km ng cao tc
Trung Lng-M Thun-Cn Th.
Thng 11 nm 2009, Cc ng b Vit Nam v Cng ty pht trin ng
cao tc Bin Ha-Vng Tu (BVEC) k hp ng theo hnh thc BOT nng cp
Quc l 51 on ni gia ng Nai v B Ra-Vng Tu. D n s bao gm m rng
b mt ng ln 32,9m, nng cp, m rng 10 cu c, xy dng 12 cy cu mi trn
ton tuyn. Tng mc u t cho d n l 3.310t VND (185,36triu USD), trong
10% l do cc nh u t ng gp, phn cn li c cung cp t cc khon vay
thng mi.
Thng 11 nm 2009, Ban qun l d n Thng Long (PMU) tin hnh mi
thu giai on 2 d n ng vnh ai 3 thnh ph H Ni. D n c tng vn d
kin l 5.600t VND (313,64triu USD) trong bao gm c vic xy dng tuyn
ng i u tin Vit Nam. n v trng thu s phi chu trch nhim xy dng
tuyn ng cao tc ni di 8,9 km t Thanh Xun ti Bc Linh m.

Q1 2010

ng b
Thng 10 nm 2009 khi cng xy dng 55km u tin ca
tuyn cao tc Bc-Nam, on t thnh ph H Ch Minh i qua
sn bay quc t Long Thanh tiDu Giy. Tuyn ng nyd
kin hon thnh vo nm 2013.
Thng 8 nm 2009, Ph Ch tch UBND tnh B Ra- Vng Tu
( mt tnh pha Nam Vit Nam) ph duyt k hoch xy dng
mt tuyn giao thng chnh kt ni cc cng v cc khu cng
nghip trong khu vc. Theo k hoch ny, tuyn ng s c
thc hin trong hai giai on. Giai on 1, xy dng 8,3km
ng,5 cu (nhng cha vch tuyn c th), khi cng t Qu IV
nm 2009 v hon thnh vo nm 2012. Giai on 2 khi cng
22

Q3 2009

Q2 2009

nm 2012, hon thnh vo nm 2015 bao gm xy dng 3,2km

ng, 1 cu. Chi ph cho d n c tnh l 6.300t VND
(350triu USD). S Giao thng Vn ti s qun l tuyn ng
mi ny. Theo bo Saigon Times, k hoch bc u l xy dng
tuyn ng xut pht t cng container Ci Mpqua qun Tn
Thnh v kt thc ti cng Phc An.
Thng 8 nm 2009, Cng ty xy dng MT Hjgaard ca an
Mch dnh c hp ng xy dng mt cu dy vng di
240m, 6 ln ng ti TP Hi Phng. Cng trnh ny d kin khi
cng vo thng 9 nm 2009 v hon thnh trong vng 21 thng.
D n doChnh ph Phn Lanti tr.
Theo bn tin ting Anh ca Nikkei, thng 8 nm 2009, lin danh
gia hai Cng ty ca Nht Bn l Cng ty xy dng
Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries (IHI) v cng ty xy dng
Mitsubishi c Chnh ph Vit Nam t hng xy dng
cuNht Tn ti H Ni tr gi 40t Yn Nht (423triu USD),
l cu.
Thng 8 nm 2009, Tng cng ty c phn Becamex IDC
Corporation hp tc vi chnh quyn a phngkhi cng d n
ng cao tc M Phc-Tn Vn ti tnh Bnh Dng. Chi ph
cho d n ny l 3.500t VND (196,6triu USD), trong chnh
quyn tnh cung cp 1.700t VND (95,5triu USD). D n bao
gm xy dng 30km ng cao tc 6 ln xe v 18 cu.Tuyn
ng ny s kt ni cc khu cng nghip ti Bn Ct, Thun An
v x D An; huyn Th Du Mt, ng Nai, Bnh Dng ti
cng container ti thnh ph H Ch Minh v sn bay quc t
Long Thnh. Theo k hoch d n c khi cng vo nm 2013.
u thng 7 nm 2009, B Giao thng vn ti kt lun giai on 2
ca d n ng vnh ai 3 H Ni s c khi cng vo cui
nm 2009. Tng vn u t cho giai on hai (gm c 9km ng
vnh ai ko di) s l 5.000t VND (280triu USD).
D n ng cao tc ni H Ni vi huyn Vn Giang, Hng Yn
di 21km s c khi cng vo thng 7 vi tng chi ph c tnh
l 380t VND (22,5triu USD). Hp ng xy dng v chuyn
giao c trao cho Tng cng ty xy dng Machinery v Cng ty
c phn u t v xy dng Thnh Nam. Trong vng hai nm sau
khi hon thnh, cng trnh s c chuyn giao cho Thnh ph H
Ni.
Ngy 16 thng 6 B Giao thng Vn ti khi cng xy dng
ng cao tc Ninh Bnh - Nghi Sn vi chiu di 121km, y l
mt phn ca d n nng cp trc Quc l Bc-Nam. Tng vn
u t d kin cho tuyn ng ny l 3.200t VND (1,9t USD).
Thng 6 nm 2009, y ban nhn dn thnh ph H Ni a ra k
hoch u t 881,6t VND (50,9triu USD) nng cp Quc l 1
t Ngc Hi i Cu Gi, on qua cc huyn Thng Tn v Ph
Xuyn. S Giao thng vn ti H Ni chu trch nhim thc hin
d n vi t cch l c quan c y thc pht trin v tng
cng nng lc mng li giao thng ca thnh ph.
Thng 4, ngn hng pht trin chu (ADB) v t chc pht trin
23

ca Php (AFD) ngh mt khon ti tr tr gi 7triu USD

nhm h tr Vit Nam nng cp nng lc kt cu h tng ti ba
huyn. Khon ti tr ny s c dng xy dng 41km ng
giao thng v nc sch cho khu vc nng thn. Cc d n s
khi cng vo Qi IV nm 2009.

ng st
Thng 11 nm 2009, mt Consortium thnh lp t hai cng ty: Cng ty xy
dng VINCI Construction Grands v Cng ty sn xut LOHR Industrie ca Php
k mt bn tha thun xy dng tuyn ng st nh u tin ti thnh ph H Ch
Minh, Vit Nam. D n ny c chi ph c tnh l 200triu EUR (297,77triu USD)
bao gm thit k v xy dng tuyn ng st di 12km vi tng s 23 nh ga.
Thng 10 nm 2009, B Giao thng Vn ti Vit Nam thng bo by nh
u t ca Hn Quc s hp tc vi Cng ty lin doanh c phn u t v xy dng
Giao Thng (TRICC) u t v xy dng 33,5km tuyn metro ni s 5 ti H Ni
v khu vc Nha Trang-Si Gn thuc tuyn ng cao tc Bc-Nam. Cc cng ty
c la chn gm c: Samsung, Daewoo, Ska, Kumho v Kangnam.

Q1 2010

Q2 2009

ng st
Thng 10 nm 2009, B Giao thng Vn ti Vit Nam thng b
by nh u t ca Hn Quc, vi s hp tc ca cng ty lin
doanh c phn u t v xy dng Giao Thng (TRICC) s u
t v xy dng 33,5km tuyn metro ni s 5 ti H Ni v
khu vc Nha Trang-Si Gn thuc tuyn ng cao tc BcNam. Bn hp ng c tr gi c tnh 1,2t USD. Cc tp on
ng u t 574triu USD cho giai on u v 653triu USD
cho giai on tip theo. Cc tp on y gm c Samsung,
Daewoo, Ska, Kumho v Kangnam.
Cui thng 6 nm 2009Ban qun l ng st 2 ca Vit
Namcho bit d n nng cp tuyn ng st Vinh-Nha Trang s
chnh thc c khi cng vo Q3 nm 2009. Tng chiu di
tuyn c nng cp l 700km vi chi ph c tnh 4.000t VND
(231,8triu USD).
Thng 5 nm 2009, Cc qun l ng st Vit Nam v Cng ty
ng st Trung Quc k mt hp ng tr gi hn 350triu
USD thc hin d n ng st th H Ni. Theo tha
thun gia hai bn, cng ty ca Trung Quc s chu trch nhim
kho st, thit k v cung cp thit b cho d n. Tng vn u
t ca d n ny vo khong 552,86triu USD trong pha
Trung Quccho vay 85%, phn cn li do ch u t l Cng ty
ng st Vit Nam t b ra. D n ng st th Ct LinhH ng ti H Ni c k vng i vo vn hnh t nm 2014
vi chiu di 13,5km, nng lc vn chuyn 28.500 hnh khch/h
mi chiu. D n ny c d kin bt u t nm 2009 nhng
24

n nay vn cha c phn hi.

Thng 4 nm 2009, B Ti chnh Vit Nam ph duyt 449t
VND (30triu USD) cho tng cng ty ng st Vit Nam nhm
y nhanh tin 5 d n quan trng ca cng ty ctng vn
u t ln ti 11.600t VND (670triu USD). Tng cng ty ny
d nh s u t vo tuyn ng st H Ni-Lo Cai, h thng
thng tin trn tuyn ng st H Ni-Vinh giai on 2, tuyn
ng st Vinh-Nha Trang, ng st Thng Nht v 44 cu dc
theo tuyn ng st Thng Nht.

(BNG TR27)

25

LNH VC NNG LNG V DOANH NGHIP CNG CH

(BNG TR3031)
Kch bn d bo h tng nng lng v dch v
Theo d bo ca chng ti, ng gp ca lnh vc nng lng v dch v vo tng
gi tr kt cu h tng s gim dn. Mc d gi tr ca ngnh nng lng s tng trong
mt vi nm ti vi mc tng trng gi tr thc t bnh qun 11,1%/nm trong giai on
2010-2014 nhng mc u t vo ngnh vn ti s nhanh chng ln p ngnh nng lng
v dch v. iu ny ch yu l do trong khi u t vo nng lng vn duy tr mt t l
n nh trong nhng nm sp ti th chng ti d bo u t vo h tng giao thng vn
ti s tng rt nhanh, c bit l trong lnh vc ng st v cng bin.

Tng quan h tng nng lng v dch v

Thy in ng gp mt phn t nhu cu in nng ca Vit Nam v mc d y
l ngun ti nguyn quan trng nhng nhit in vn l ngun nng lng ph bin hn.
Hin ti ang c mt dng vn u t n nh vo pht trin thy in, c bit l trong
iu kin th trng than chu ang cng thng v chnh sch tng gi than ca Trung
Quc.
u thng 3 nm 2009, Th tng Chnh ph Vit Nam Nguyn Tn Dng cnh
bo in lc Vit Nam (EVN) khng c php s dng tin vo nhng lnh vc khng
thuc ngnh in. Theo Th tng, EVN cn phi tp trung vo vic m bo ngun in
cho t nc. Dch v cung cp in cn c m bo khng xy ra tnh trng thiu
in nh nm 2009 cng nh cc nm sau.
Tuy nhin, thng bo ny mu thun vi nhng cng b trc y lin quan n
vn ti chnh, thng 1 nm 2009 EVN cho bit h d nh s chi 49.990 t VND
(3,03t USD) vo cc d n nng lng trong nm 2009. Trong , 42.450t VND (2,42t
USD) c thng qua cho cc khon u t rng ca d n, 6.550t VND (0,37t
USD) dng tr n, 1.040t VND (0,06t USD) chi cho cc cng ty c phn u t v
pht trin. Vo cui thng 1 nm 2009, cc phng tin truyn thng ti Vit Nam a tin
EVN c gng lm tng s tin do h qun l l 28,6triu USD c huy ng t vic
pht hnh tri phiu cng ty thc hin 9 d n nng lng bao gm c thy in v
nhit in trong nm 2009. Nng lc cp in ca cc d n ny d kin l 2,696
megawatts (MW).
Theo tng trng ca ngnh nng lng, B Cng thng ca Vit Nam cho
bit lp xong k hoch cho 13 d n nng lng m EVN t chi thc hin cc k
hoch ny s c trnh Chnh ph xem xt. Trong bn k hoch gn y nht, EVN s
26

u t 2 d n vi tng cng sut 2.000MW, cc d n cn li do cc nh u t khc b

vn. Cng lu rng, cc thch thc m EVN i mt trong th trng tn dng ni a
nu khng ln th cng tng ng so vi cc nh u t t nhn. Khu vc u t t
nhn s phi i mt thm vi cc thch thc l red tape, tha thun gi c v hp
ng phn phi vi EVN (do EVN vn c quyn trong phn phi in), y l mt qu
trnh m bn thn n c cho l rt l tch cc i vi cc nh u t t nhn.
Chnh ph kim sot cht ch gi in, vic iu iu chnh gi in do B Ni
v xut v Th tng Chnh ph ph duyt. Gi in c thng nht mt mc gi
trn ton quc v c xem l thp hn so vi cc nc trong khu vc. y l nguyn
nhn su xa m cc nh u t quyt nh phn i cc khon u t ch yu trong lnh
vc nng lng ca Vit Nam, mt nhn t c xem xt trong bng nh gi ti
chnh d n mi ca chng ti khi xem xt ri ro v gi c i vi ngnh nng lng v
dch v.
Trong ci ri li c ci may thm ch khi tnh hung ny tr nn ti t. Yu cu
cp thit ca EVN v vic tng cng s tham gia ca khu vc t hoc mo him vi vn
cu trc lu ngy trong th trng in c th khin Chnh ph Vit Nam y nhanh k
hoch t do ha ngnh in. Vic ny s ph v th c quyn ca EVN trong phn phi
in sm hn thi hn nh l nm 2022, kt qu l biu gi in mi c php dao
ng. Chng ti tin rng nhu cu ca cc nh u t thc s cao trong th trng in
Vit Nam bi v tc tng trng cao ca nn kinh t to ra nhu cu rt ln. Tuy
nhin, u t t nhn vn cn rt hn ch do nhng tr ngi trong th tc hnh chnh v
s cng nhc ca th trng ni a. Hai vn trn c xc nh rt r rng trong nh
hng ca Chnh ph. Nu c xc nh ng, vic ny s kch thch hot ng ca th
trng in v gim thiu ri ro trong vic qu ph thuc vo cc chng trnh u t
ca EVN cho tng trng trong tng lai.
Hnh thc hp tc cng - t (PPP) u tin trong lnh vc nng lng ca Vit
Nam t c nhng bc tin ng k vo thng 5 nm 2009 khi Tp on JAKS
Resources ca Malaysia k mt bin bn ghi nh vi Chnh ph Vit Nam v vic xy
dng v vn hnh nh my nhit in ti Hi Dng. y l mt mc quan trng i vi
Vit Nam, xa hn n cng cho thy c hi cho cc nh sn xut nng lng c lp
lp y khon thiu ht u t do EVN li ang pht trin nhanh chng.
Tuy nhin khung php l cho m hnh hp tc cng t (PPP) Vit Nam vn
ang giai on trng nc. Theo Gim c S k hoch v u t tnh Hi Dng, hp
ng BOO c theo ui theo quy nh ti Ngh nh s 78 ban hnh nm 2005.
Ngh nh 78 c l l mt trong nhng s t cc c s php l qun l m hnh PPP
hin ti ca Vit Nam. Khung php l mng l tr ngi chnh cho vic pht trin m hnh
27

PPP Vit Nam bi v n lm cho cc nh u t cm thy nh b t vo mt mi

trng kinh doanh thiu chc chn. D n nhit in Hi Dng s l mt th nghim
cho m hnh PPP trong ngnh in.
Vit Nam t bc i u tin trong vic thng qua quyt nh xy dng hai
nh my in ht nhn. Quc hi cng thng qua ch trng ku gi xy dng hai nh
my ny v ang ch lm sng t hn, ch trng ny s c trnh ln Th tng
Chnh ph Nguyn Tn Dng c quyt nh cui cng.
c lng chi ph xy dng hai nh my in ht nhn l khong 200.000t
VND (10,8t USD). Hai nh my ny s c t tnh Ninh Thun v mi nh my s
c cng sut 2gigawatts (GW). Mc d vn cn nhng lo lng trong vic thng qua k
hoch nng lng ht nhn, trong qu trnh chun b Vit Nam vn c li th hn so vi
cc nc ang pht trin khc. Vit Nam t c tha thun hp tc vi Hn Quc,
Nht Bn, M, Canada, Trung Quc v Php.
Cng ty xy dng nh my in ht nhn ln th hai Trung Quc, Tp on
nng lng ht nhn Qung Chu-Trung Quc, ng gip Vit Nam pht trin l
phn ng u tin. Theo k hoch c xut, nh my in cng sut 2gigawatts(GW)
s c xy dng ti tnh Ninh Thun. Bo co v pht trin nng lng ht nhn s c
trnh ln Quc hi vo trung tun thng 4 nm 2009.
Tham vng ht nhn ca Vit Nam c bt u t nhng nm 1980 khi nc
ny ln u tin nghin cu pht trin cng ngh ht nhn. Nm 2006, Chnh ph Vit
Nam thng bo k hoch pht trin nh my in ht nhn cng sut 2.000MW, vic xy
dng bt u vo nm 2014 v hi vng s hon thnh trong vng 5 nm.
Bng: Ba giai on ca t do ha th trng in ti Vit Nam
Giai on 1 (2005-2014): Th trng in cnh tranh s thay th tnh trng nh c quyn v bo tr
hin nay.
Giai on 2 (2015-2022): Th trng bn bun cnh tranh.
Giai on 3 (sau nm 2022): Th trng bn l cnh tranh.

Vit Nam cha bao gi thot khi tnh trng thiu in mc d Chnh ph Vit
Nam tm mi cch gim thiu vic ny thng qua u t v t do ha th trng nng
lng. Theo quy hoch pht trin ngnh nng lng Vit Nam thi k 2006-2025, ngnh
in s cn mt khon vn u t xp x 79,9t USD, trong , khong 52t USD s c
u t cho ngun cung cp in v phn cn li s l cho h thng truyn ti v phn
phi. Chnh ph ang c k hoch nng tng cng sut cp in ca in lc Vit Nam
ln 81GW vo nm 2020.
28

Thng 11 nm 2008, ngn hng Th Gii thng qua khon vay tr gi 150 triu
USD cho Vit Nam thc hin d n in khi ha nng thn. Theo , nhng nm cui
thp k va qua bnh qun mi nm c 1.800 h gia nh nng thn c s dng in
li quc gia, con s ny l nt c trng cho s tng trng v nhu cu in ca khu
vc nng thn so vi khu vc thnh th. Mc tiu ca d n ny l m rng mng li
cung cp in.
B Cng thng Vit Nam d bo nu tng trng kinh t l 7% th cu v in
nng s tng 15% trong nm 2009. Tuy nhin, s nh tr ca hot ng kinh t trong
nm 2009 lm gim nhu cu in nng v v vy cng lm gim bt s cng thng v
ngun cung.

D n chnh D n mi v ang trin khai

Cc nh my pht in
Thng 1 nm 2010, Toyo Ink thng bo h ang cn nhc vic pht hnh
c phiu u i huy ng vn cho d n nh my nhit in than c trnh
ti Vit Nam. H cng ang nghin cu cc gii php ti chnh khc xy dng nh
my v ang i vn phng Chnh ph thng qua. Vi chi ph 2,5 t USD, d n s
c trin khai ti Duyn Hi 3, tnh Tr Vinh.
Thng 11 nm 2009, Tng cng ty Sumitomo ca Nht Bn k mt bin
bn ghi nh vi Chnh ph Vit Nam v vic xy dng v vn hnh nh my nhit
in than tr gi hng t USD. Theo bn ghi nh, Sumitomo s thu nh thu l Tng
cng ty c phn u t xy dng cng nghip H Ni (Hanoico) xy dng nh my
vi cng ngh tin tin gim thiu kh thi. Cng sut d kin ca nh my l
1.320MW, chi ph u t 200 t Yn Nht (2,5t USD).
Thng 10 nm 2009, Tng cng ty sn xut thit b in t Thng HiTrung Quc (SEC) dnh c hp ng tr gi 38t USD t EVN xy dng mt
nh my nhit in tnh Bnh Thun, Vit Nam. Theo cc iu khon ca hp ng,
SEC s xy dng v cung cp my mc thit b cho nh my nhit in Vnh Tn 2
vi cng sut 1.244 MW. Theo k hoch Nh my ny s ha mng v cung cp in
cho khu vc pha Nam Vit Nam vo nm 2013.
Thng 10 nm 2009, Bo Saigon Times a tin Cng ty c phn thu in
Vnh Sn-Sng Hinh (VSH) khi cng xy dng nh my thy in 220MW
Thng KonTum ti tnh Kom Tum, Vit Nam. Nh my ny c h cha, knh dn
nc di 18km v 2 tuc bin. Kinh ph u t cho nh my vo khong 5.700t VND
(322triu USD), cng sut 1,1t kWh/nm t nm 2014.

29

Cc nh my in v chuyn ti li in
Q1 2010
Thng 10 nm 2009, Cng ty c phn thy in Vnh Sn-Sng
Hinh khi cng xy dng d n nh my thy in 220MW
Thng KonTum ti tnh Kom Tum, Vit Nam. Nh my ny c h
cha, knh cha nc di 18km v 2 tuc bin vi s tin u t
5.700t VND (322triu USD), cng sut pht in hng nm l 1,1t
kWh k t nm 2014.
Thng 9 nm 2009, Ngn hng pht trin Vit Nam (BDV), Ngn
hng u t v pht trin Vit Nam (Bidv) v ngn hng c phn
Vit-Nga (VRB) ng cho vay 1.370t VND (76,57triu USD)
xy dng nh my thy in ng Nai 2 ti tnh Lm ng Vit
Nam. Nh my ny c cng sut 70MW vi tng vn u t 1.950t
VND (109,19triu USD) do Cng ty c phn thy in Trung Nam
lm ch u t.
Thng 9 nm 2009, ngn hng pht trin chu (ADB) thng qua
khon vay tr gi 151triu USD cho Vit Nam nhm h tr xy
dng cc nh my thy in ti khu vc nng thn. Khon tin ny
bng 76% trong tng s 197,6triu USD chi ph xy dng 5 n
10 nh my thy in vi cng sut 100MW, phn cn li l vn
i ng ca Chnh ph Vit Nam. Cc nh my thy in ny d
kin hon thnh vo nm 2015.
Thng 8 nm 2009, Ngn hng u t v pht trin ca Vit Nam
(Bidv) k hp ng tn dng tr gi 1.000t VND (58,5triu USD)
vi cng ty c phn thy in Nm Mc xy dng nh my thy
in Nm Mc c cng sut 44MW ti Mng Mun. D kin mi
nm nh my ny s sn xut 176triu KWh v theo k hoch s i
vo vn hnh t nm 2011.
Thng 8 nm 2009, hai cng ty Nht Bn l Sojitz v Toshiba cng
dnh c n t hng ca Tng cng ty xy lp my Lilama Vit
Nam cung cp mi gi thit b bao gm 2 tucbin pht in hi
nc 600MW tr gi 11t Yn Nht (115triu USD) cho nh my
nhit in than ti tnh H Tnh, Vit Nam. D kin 2 tucbin ny
s c lp t thng 11 nm 2011 v nh my i vo vn hnh
vo nm 2012.
Q3 2009
Thng 7, tp on than khong sn Vit Nam (Vinacomin) khi
ng xy dng nh my nhit in Mo Kh ti pha bc tnh
Qung Ninh. Chi ph xy dng nh my l 557triu USD v theo k
hoch s c a vo vn hnh vo nm 2012 sau 2 nm khi
cng xy dng. Vinacomin va k hp ng xy dng, qun l k
thut v trang thit b tr gi 429,5triu USD vi cng ty in lc
V Hn Kaidi, Trung Quc.
Q2 2009
Cui thng 6 nm 2009, nh my pht in Nhn Trch s 2 ti tnh
ng Nai c khi cng xy dng vi tng vn u t d kin
700triu USD. Trong , Tp on du kh quc gia Vit Nam
(PetroVietNam) s u t 51%, phn cn li l vn ng cp ca:
EVN, tp on bu chnh vin thng Vit Nam, Tp on than
khong sn Vit Nam, Ngn hng u t v pht trin v Cng ty
pht trin k thut. Nh my ny s c hon thnh trong vng 30
30

thng v sn xut khong 4,5t KWh in mi nm.

Cng trong cui thng 6, Th tng Chnh ph Vit Nam Nguyn
Tn Dng ph chun bc u cho php Tng cng ty u t v
cng nghip Tn To u t xy dng 2 nh my in ti huyn
Kin Lng thucmin nam Vit Nam. Theo k hoch,hai nh my
Kin Lng 1 v Kin Lng 2 c cng sut ln lt l 1.200MW
v 1.200 - 2.000 MW s c a vo vn hnh vo nm 2014.
Chi ph xy dng hai nh my ny cha c cng b.
Thng 6 nm 2009, ngn hng Th Gii v Ngn hng Nh nc
Vit Nam k mttho thun tn dng u icho cc d n trong lnh
vc nng lng ti to ti Vit Nam. Khon tn dng ny c gi tr
202 triu USD do Hip hi pht trin quc t (IDA) cung cp. Tng
chi ph d kin cho u t l 316triu USD, bn cnh cc khon
vay, Chnh ph, cc ngn hng trong nc v cc nh ti tr s cng
gp vn. S vn ny s c chi trong vng hn 4 nm v theo mt
bo co s c s dng ti tr cho khong 25 d n. Theo yu
cu bn cp tn dng, 3 ngn hng trong nc l Ngn hng u t
v pht trin Vit Nam, Sacombank v Vietcombank s tip cn
khon tn dng trn v ln k hoch cho vay i vi cc d n nng
lng c cng sut ln ti 30MW do cc nh u t t nhn thc
hin.
Ngn hng u t v pht trin Vit Nam (Bidv) ng hp tc
vi Ngn hng Vit-Nga cung cp khon vay tr gi 1.000 t VND
(58,7triu USD) cho d n nh my thy in Vn Chn ti tnh
Yn Bi. Theo tha thun c k vo ngy 11 thng 6, Bidv s b
ra 850t VND (49,9triu USD) phn cn li 150t VND (8,8triu
USD) do Ngn hng Vit-Nga cung cp. Nh my in cng sut
57MW ny s c vn hnh vo nm 2011.
Thng 5 nm 2009, tp on JAKS Resources ca Malaysia k hp
ng vi Chnh ph Vit Nam xy dng nh my nhit in Hi
Dng theo hnh thc BOO. Nh my nhit in than ny s c
cng sut 1.200MW, s dng ngun than trong nc do Vinacomin
(mt doanh nghip thuc s hu nh nc) cung cp. Vic xy
dngs khi cng vo thng 10 nm 2010 v a vo vn hnh nm
2014. Nh my c t ti huyn Kinh Mn, tnh Hi Dng.
Theo thng tin bo ch, c tnh tng chi ph cho xy dng nh my
l 2t USD. V kha cnh ti chnh, thng 11 nm 2008 tng gim
c ca tp on JAKS Resources, Chee Seong Heng cho bit h
ang cn nhc vic huy ng vn thng qua pht hnh c phiu u
i v cc tho thun ti chnh di hn.
Thng 5 nm 2009, Tng cng ty h tng H Ni Cavico thng bo
c UBND tnh Lm ng cp php thc hin d n khu pht
in chy bng sc gi gn b bin theo hnh thc BOO. Tng chi
ph cho d l 56triu USD, Cavico s b ra 20%, phn cn li l
vn vay. D kin nh my s c c khi cng xy dng vo
thng 10 nm 2010 v i vo hot ng trc nm 2012, cng sut
ban u 30MW. Given the new World Bank facility for renewable
projects (see the bullet point above), chng ti d bo rng s l
mt trong nhng d n u tin c s dng ti tr hu hiu.
31

Thng 5 nm 2009, Tp on Du kh Vit Nam thng bo khi

cng t hp pht in Long Ph ti tnh Sc Trng vi cng sut
thit k ln ti 4.000MW. D n nh my pht in Long Ph 1 tr
gi 1,4t USD bao gm xy dng 3 nh my nhit in t than v
cc cng trnh h tng lin quan khc. Du kh Vit Nam hi vng s
vn hnh tucbin pht in u tin vi cng sut 600MW vo cui
nm 2013.
Thng 5 nm 2009, Chnh ph thng qua d n pht trin thu in
A Li, y l nh my thy in ln nht ti tnh Tha Thin Hu.
Hai tuc bin pht in ca nh my c cng sut 170MW vi sn
lng in hng nm 686.5triu KWh. Tng vn u t cho ton b
d n c tnh vo khong 3.200t VND (180triu USD). D n s
c i vo vn hnh vo cui nm 2011.
EVN bo lnh mt khon vay tng hp t 4 ngn hng trong
nc xy dng nh my thy in Hui Qung. Tng chi ph
cho d n ny c tnh vo khong 11.000t VND (617triu USD),
trong vn vay l 4.000 t VND (225triu USD). Cc ngn hng
ng cho vay l: Vietcombank (300tVND), Agribank (200t
VND), PVFCCo (450t VND) v EVN (100t VND). Nh my thu
in ny cng sut520MW.
Cui thng 4 nm 2009, ti mt hi ngh H Ni i in ca tp
on KV Venti thuc Cng ha Sc cho bit h ang nghin cu
thnh lp mt Cng ty 100% vn nc ngoi u t vo lnh vc
pht in bng sc gi ti Vit Nam. Bc u tp on ny s u
t vo cc tnh pha nam l Ninh Thun v Bnh Thun.
Cui thng 4 nm 2009, Intellasia bo co4 ngn hng thng mi
gm: Agribank, Bidv, Vietcombank, v PG Bank cam kt cung
mt khon tn dng tng hp tr gi 2.600t VND (150triu USD)
cho EVN thc hin d n thy in Bn Cht. Agribank s cung
cp 1.500t VND (90triu USD) trong khon vay vi thi hn 13
nm. Nh my pht in Bn Cht cng sut220MW l mt trong
nhng d n trng im ca EVN trong nm 2009 vi tng chi ph
c tnh ln ti 8.600t VND (490triu USD).
Thng 4 nm 2009, Cavico bo lnh mt hp ng xy dng tr gi
4,9triu USD t tng cng ty lp my Lilama. Theo hp ng ny,
Cavico s xy dng knh chuyn dng v p ngn nc cho nh
my thy in Ha Na. Khi nh my i vo vn hnh s c cng
sut 180MW v cung cp 706triu KWh in mi nm. Tng chi
ph u t xy dng nh my ny l 250triu USD.
Thng 4 nm 2009, Ngn hng pht trin chu ph duyt
khon vay tr gi 151triu USD h tr Vit Nam pht trin 10
nh my thy in mini trn khp t nc.

32

ng ng dn
ng ng dn u v kh
Q1 2010
Thng 10 nm 2009, Tp on Du kh Quc gia Vit Nam thng
bo quyt nh xy dng ng ng dn kh th hai ti ging du
Nam Cn Sn. Trn thng bo c a ra, Tng gim c Du
kh Vit Nam Phng nh Thc ni ng ng dn kh Nam Cn
Sn s c s dng cung cp cho cc nh my in ti Ph M.
Q2 2009
Gia thng 5 nm 2009, Du kh Vit Nam cho bit h ang chun b
khi cng xy dng khi ng ng dn kh B- Mn ti pha nam
thnh ph Cn Th tr gi 1 t USD vo Q4 2009. H thng 406km
ng ng dn kh bao gm 246km ng ng ngoi khi v 160km
ng ng trong t lin s kt ni hn 5 tnh thuc ng bng sng
Cu Long bao gm thnh ph Cn Th v cc tnh Hu Giang, Kin
Giang, Bc Liu, C Mau. D n s c vn hnh vo thng 7 nm
2011 vi cng sut 5.8-6.6bcm do cng ty lin doanh Vietsopetro xy
dng.

Cung cp nc
Cung cp nc
Q1 2010

Cng ty thit b, t vn v xy dng Black&Veatch khi ng d

n pht trin cc th trung tm vng va v nh ti Vit Nam.
Chnh ph Vit Nam v Black&Veatch k mt hp ng trong
Black&Veatch s cung cp cc dch v t vn thc hin d n cho
Chnh ph. D n s u t vo h tng cung cp nc sch, x l,
tiu thot nc thi v cht thi rn. D n do ngn hng pht trin
chu v Chnh ph Vit Nam ti tr v c thc hin trong
khong 5 nm.

33

Bng danh mc d n chnh Lnh vc Nng lng v Doanh nghip cng ch: Vit Nam
Gi tr d n
Tn d n
(Triu la)
Nh my in v h thng truyn ti
Hm v p tm ti
Thy in Hua Na
plant
4.9
Nam Muc hydropower
plant

na
na

na

58.5

322

Mao Khe

577

Lam Dong wind farm

Khung thi gian

Cavico (EPC
contractor)
Nam Muc
Hydropower Joint
Stock Company
Trung Nam
Hydropower Joint
Stock
Vinh Son-Song Hinh
Hydropower JSC
Vinacomin/Wuhan
Kaidi Electric Power
Tan Tao Investment
and Industry (main
investor)

Dong Nai 2 hydropower

plant
Thuong Kon Tum
Hydropower Joint

Kien Luong 1&2

Loans for the
Van Chan hydropower
plant
Hai Duong coal fired
power plant

Tn Cty

109

2,000

56

JAKS Resources

Cavico

Long Phu power complex

1,400

PetroVietnam

A Luoi hydropower plant

Huoi Quang hydropower
plant
A Luoi hydropower plant

180

na

617
250

EVN
Lilama

na
2009-2011
na

Trng thi

Hp ng c trao ti
Thng 4 nm 2009
Credit agreement
singed in August
2009
Loan agreement in
September 2009

2009-2014
2009-2012 Under Construction
Power plants due to
be operational by
-2014
2014
project arranged in
May 2009
First utilities BOO
2010-2014 contract in Vietnam
Official
approval
granted in
May
2010-2012
First
turbine
expected
online in
2009-2013
2013
Official
approval
granted in
May
-2011
Financing arranged
na
in May 2009
na
na

PetroVietnam
Construction Joint
Stock
Corporation(EPC
contractors) and Nhon Trach 2 Power J o i n t
Company na Under Construction
Nhon Trach 2 power plant
Vung Ang 1 power plant

Stock

524
1170

Petro Vietnam,
Lilama
contractor)

2009

Construction due to
begin in April 2009

34

Bng Bng danh mc d n chnh Linh vc Nang lung v Cng ch Vit Nam
Gi tr d n
490

Company name(s)
EVN

Khung
gian
na

9.8

Cavico hydropower

2009-2010

1,500

Janakuasa

2011-2015

Tn d n
A Luoi hydropower plant
the
Song
Giang
2
Hydropower project works
Duyen Hai 2 coal-fired
power plant

Mong Duong 2

1,400

AES Copr.

na

Song Bung 4 hydropower

268

EVN

na

Binh Thuan coal-fired IPP

Binh Thusan coal-fired
power plants (Hai Phong 3)

na

OneEnergy

3,000

Vinacomin
Cuu
Long
Engineering
Consulting Co.

Trng thi
Argibank,
Vietcombank
PG
thi syndicated
US$150mn,
2009

Due for construction

Hp dng duc trao t?i
January
Contract expected
in 2009
At planning stage
JV OneEnergy
established in
October 2008

na

na
Power
and

At planning stage
Construction due to
begin in early 2009

Dak Di 1 &2

36

Construction of a
3,600MW thermal power
plant in southern Vietnam

4,000

Ensham Resources

2008-2012

At planning stage

3,000

Skoda Praha

na

Deal signed

1,100

Electricity of Vietnam
(EVN)

2008-2012

Loan approved

Construction of a
3,000MW coal fired power
plant in the Tra Vinh
province
Construction of a
1,000MW coal fired Mong
Duong power plant in
Quang Ninh

2009-

Bidv,
and
Bank
loan
of
April

Oil and Gas Pipelines

B-O Mon natural gas
pipeline
Nam Cn San 2 pipeline

1,000

Petro Vietnam,

2009-2011

na

Petro Vietnam,

na

Construction likely
to begin in Q309
At planning stage

Ghi ch: Vi d n trong bng trn cng c trnh by trong bo co Vit Nam nm 2008, trong bo co cc d
n ny cng c phn tch; na l thiu s liu Ngun: BMI

35

MI TRNG KINH DOANH

Mi trung kinh doanh Vit Nam
Theo ma trn xp hng mi trng kinh doanh ca Vit Nam, Vit Nam c mc
im 50.7 trn thang 100, thp hn mt cht so vi mc bnh qun ca khu vc l 55.9
v ng th 7 trong 14 nc thuc chu Thi Bnh Dng. iu ny cho thy mc ri
ro bt li tng i ln nu xt ti tc tng trng ca quc gia ny. Tham nhng v
thiu vng khung php lut v quy nh l nhng vn ch yu. Cc thnh phn ca
im s ny gm:
Hn ch ca kh nng hon vn
im s ca Vit Nam trong phn ny cao hn mt cht so vi mc bnh qun
ca khu vc. iu ny l tn hiu ca mt th trng nng ng v phn nh
quan im ca chng ti cho rng Vit Nam s tip tc l mt trong nhng th
trng kt cu h tng tch cc v hp dn nht trong khu vc. Tuy nhin, chi
tiu xy dng c nh gi l rt km, ch t 2 im trn thang 10. Cc ri ro
i vi th trng ny l tng gi
Cu trc quc gia
V thnh phn cu trc quc gia, gm nn tng th trng ti chnh v lao ng
th xp hng ca Vit Nam nm di mc bnh qun ca khu vc. iu c bn
lm thnh phn ny im thp chnh l do thiu ht cc nn tng ti chnh. Hot
ng cho vay ti Vit Nam mang c tnh ca tiu chun cho vay thp, do bn
ngn hng quc doanh thng tr trong khi vic tip cn ti cc ngun vn ngoi l
kh khn. C mt s ri ro tng gia do ngnh ngn hng bc vo thi k c
phn ha.
Cc ri ro v kh nng thc hin hon vn
Ri ro th trng
V ri ro th trng, Vit Nam mt ln na ng trong cc nc c im s thp
nht trong khu vc. iu ny ch ra rng yu km trong cu trc ca ngnh kt
cu h tng tc ng tr li i vi ri ro di hn ca nh u t. minh
bch ca qu trnh u thu b nh gi rt thp, ch 3 trn thang im 10. Tnh
cnh tranh trong ngnh kt cu h tng v xy dng vn rt hn ch v xy dng
ng b cng nh cc h thng nng lng v cc doanh nghip cng ch vn
thng tr bi cc doanh nghip quc doanh. Ngnh cng bim v ng st th
l nhng ngnh c s tham gi ln nht ca cc nh u t nc ngoi trong c
ngnh kt cu h tng.
36

Ri ro quc gia
Tham nhng l rt ph bin Vit Nam dn ti im s thp khi nh gi ri ro
quc gia. Nh u t nhn nhn tham nhng ca cng chc l mt cn tr ln
nht trin khai kinh doanh ti Vit Nam. Lin doanh vi cc doanh nghip
quc doanh c khuynh hng tham nhng v hi l nhiu nht mc du kho st
ch ra nh vy nhng tham nhng nh hng ti kinh doanh l rt ph bin
nhng gi tr l tng i nh. Tng trng kinh t nhanh to iu kin cho
hi l tng nhanh hn c s i mi ca h thng chnh ph. Vit Nam c 2.9
im trong thang 10 im v nh gi tham nhng ca BMI v cng xp hng rt
thp i vi cc ri ro bn ngoi v khun kh php l.

Tng quan v khu vc

Xp hng mi trng kinh doanh kt cu h tng ca khu vc Chu Thi
Bnh Dng
Xp hng mi trng kinh doanh ca khu vc ny thay i rt t trong qu ny.
Trung Quc vn l im nng nht v Pakistan vn ng cui hng, vn mi trng
kinh doanh ca nc ny mc mong mun.
Trong qu 2/ 2010 chng ti gii thiu mt nhm quc gia mi trong xp
hng mi trng kinh doanh ca BMI, gm tt c cc nc pht trin m chng ti
xp hng. iu ny c thc hin nhm n lc thc hin vic so snh tng ng mi
trng kinh doanh m cc nh u t gp phi, c bit l s hn ch i vi kh nng
hon vn v cc ri ro hon vn. Chng ti s dng nh ngha ca cc nc pht
trin do nhm ri ro quc gia ca BMI s dng. Nh vy, nhm cc quc gia pht
trin gm cc nc c, M, c, Anh, Php, Nht Bn v Hy Lp. Kt qu l, t nay
v sau, xp hng mi trng kinh doanh khu vc chu Thi Bnh Dng ca chng
ti s khng cn tnh ti Nht Bn v c.
Xp hng mi trng kinh doanh ca BMI c bin son thng qua nh gi
cc ch tiu c chia thnh hai nhm chnh. Th nht, hn ch i vi kh nng hon
vn. Ci ny khng cc nhn t ch ra tim nng th trng, v d nh d bo v tng
trng v u t chnh cho th trng kt cu h tng. Th hai l rui ro m bo vic
hon vn. Ci m khng cc ri ro i vi nh u t nh tham nhng, s lin tc ca
chnh sch v s minh bch.
Hn ch ca kh nng hon vn
Hn ch kh nng hon vn tnh ti cc c hi sn c trong lnh vc kt cu h
tng thng qua cc ch s th trng kt cu h tng. Cc quc gia vi gi kch
37

cu ln m chng ti chng kin trong trong vic la chn u t nh Trung

Quc th c t im tng i cao. i vi cc quc gia c h thng kt cu h
tng hin ti hin i nh Singapore th tri ngc.
nh gi tiu cu trc quc gia tnh ti cc nhn t nh s trng thnh v tnh
phc tp ca th trng lao ng, pht trin ca ngnh dch v ti chnh v mc
tip cn vi in nng.
Trong Chu Thi Bnh Dng, Trung Quc c mc hn ch thp nht i vi
kh nng hon vn, vi im cao nht 75.3 trn thang im 100. Quc gia ny
t trn 70 im cho c th trng kt cu h tng v cu trc quc gia. Pakistan,
mt khc cho ti nay c mc im thp nht 27 im trn 100 im, l tr ngi
ln nht cho nh u t. Quc gia ny c im thp nht trong phn cu trc
quc gia v ch c th xoay s t c 20 im trn 100 trong th trng kt
cu h tng do th trng kt cu h tng hin ti nh hp v tc tng trng
hn ch trong trung hn.
Hong Kong v Malaysia cng ng ch trong th trng kt cu h tng do ch
t im 27.5 trn 100, thp th hai. Th trng kt cu h tng ca Hong Kong
gim trong mt thi gian v lm suy gim s tch cc trong cu trc quc gia ca
nc ny, phn c im cao nht trong khu vc.Th trng kt cu h tng ca
Malaysia nh tr trong mt thi gian v iu y khng th no thay i trong
tng lai gn v km hm th trng nh ny m rng.
n c tim nng cao nht v th trng c s h tng (85 trong s 100), cao
hn nhiu im bnh qun trong phn cu trc quc gia (48,9). im s ny l
mt trong s t c thay i ng ch l t Qy 1 nm 2010, tng 20 im,
phn nh vic tip tc cam kt ca t nc ny pht trin kt cu h tng,
tc ng hn ch ca cuc khng hong ti chnh i vi lnh vc ny, v tim
nng tng trng trong tng lai. Do cc nhn t ny, n ang nhanh chng
bt kp vi Trung Quc v mt nhng hn ch tng th i vi kh nng hon
vn cho nh u t, xp cao th hai trong khu vc trong Q2 nm 2010 vi im
s 72.4.
Ri ro hon vn thc t
Ri ro i vi ch tiu hon vn thc t xc nh mc ri ro c hu trong th
trng kt cu h tng ca cc quc gia. iu ngc li thng thng vn ng
khi quc gia t kt qu tt trong ch tiu ny vi s hn ch ca giai on hon
vn tim nng. Cc quc gia pht trin hn thng c khun kh ti chnh v lut
php phc tp v mc minh bch v lin tc ca chnh sch cao hn.
38

im s cao nht i vi ch tiu ri ro vi hon vn thc t - nh vy th nc

so mc ri ro ny thp nht theo quan im ca nh u t l Singapore, vi
mc im s gn nh l hon ho mc 92/100. Mt ln na, im s thp
nht thuc v Pakistan, vi 34.2 im v l mt quc gia nhiu ri ro nht cho
hot ng u t ti Chu Thi Bnh Dng.
Vi mc im s gn nh hon ho 95/100, Singapore t im s tt nht v
mt ri ro th trng ti Chu Thi Bnh Dng v thc s l im s cao
nht ca ton b cc quc gia trong xp hng v kt cu h tng ca BMI.
Singapore to cho nh u t trong lnh vc kt cu h tng mt mi trng kinh
doanh rt minh bch v cnh trnh. iu ny c cng c thng qua im s cao
nht trong khu vc vi ri ro quc gia mc 89,9 do im s rt cao trong ch tiu
tnh lin tc ca chnh sch v cc ri ro bn ngoi cng nh khng nhn thc v
tham nhng.
im s trong phn ny ca cc nc tng i phn tn. Thc s, nhm ph
bin nht c im s di 50.
im s ca Indonesia mc thp th hai trong khu vc vi 41,8 im trn
100; iu ny l do im s thp nht ca khu vc i vi ri ro th trng l
cho th trng kt cu h tng trong khu vc tr nn ri ro nht cho s tham
gia ca nh u t. C mt vi cng ty hot ng ti quc gia ny v mc
minh bch trong qu trnh u thu khng nh mong i vi tham nhng giai
on ny l ph bin.
Ba quc gia c ngang im ti v tr th hai t di ln cho ch tiu ri ro th
trng c mc im 35/100, lm cho mc bnh qun ca ch tiu ny ca c
khu vc gim cn 55,8/100. Philippines, Pakistan and Vietnam tt c u i
mt vi cng mt vn trong qu trnh u thu, qu trnh cn c kho
st k hn trong c ba quc gia ny. Trong khi Philipphines v Vit Nam
n lc thay i hnh nh v iu chnh qu trnh u thu, mt qu trnh m c
th l mt thnh cng ln nht ti Vit nam, th nhng tin trin trm trp
trong lnh vc ny cng c mong i sm din ra ti Pakistan. iu tng
t nh trong tnh cnh tranh ca th trng ny. vi Vit Nam ang ngy cng
thu ht cc cng ty a quc gia ln v Pakistan khng c tin trin ng
hng no.
Xp hng mi trung kinh doanh kt cu h tng Thng 1 nm 2010
im s trong Q2 nm 2010 c rt t thay i, tr mt s trng hp ngoi l
v xp hng vn phn ln l khng thay i tr cc nc trong v tr gia.
39

Cc nn kinh t mi ni chu vn hm cha nhiu mc ri ro khc nhau bt

k l chnh tr, hot ng hay th ch u l cho s pht trin mt cch hiu qu
PPP (mt gii php b p thiu ht u t kt cu h tng) hoc s m rng
hn na ca PPP tr thnh mt cng vic y th thch. S ph bin ca tham
nhng, th tc hnh chnh cng nh qu trnh u thu phc tp tip tc lm
gim s quan tm ca cc nh u t tim nng.
Trung Quc vn duy tr c mc xp hng cao nht vi mc tng im
70.9/100. Tim nng mnh m trong th trng kt cu h tng nh v cc
cng trnh cng cng ca chnh ph c s dng k hoch kch cu c ngha
l quc gia ny c mt lnh vc kt cu h tng pht trin nhanh nht trn
ton cu. Mc d tim nng ca Trung Quc l r rng, nhng mc ri ro li
cao hn mc bnh qun (nhng khng nhiu lm). S thng tr ca doanh
nghip quc doanh l ci g cn quan tm c bit l cc cng ty c thc
hin cc cng trnh thuc gi kch cu u l cc cng ty quc doanh. iu
ny ngc li lm gia tng vai tr thng tr ca loi cng ty ny trn th
trng.
Vi s thiu vng ca (v tr th hai v ba) Nht Bn v c, Singapore tin
ln ng v tr th hai. Vi mc ri ro thp cho nh u t quc gia ny to dng
c mt im u t hp l v n nh; tuy nhin s nh tr trong ngnh kt
cu h tng ca n c ngha l s c t c hi u t c hin thc ha. Tuy
nhin, li c mt s du hiu ca tin trin vi cc d n ln trong k hoch
trin khai. Khi danh mc ny tr nn trc chn hn, chng ti k vng Singapore
s b tng ti v tr cao.
n v ang l mt quc gia chuyn dch mnh nht trong qu ny, vi
tng im gia tng gn 10 im, t 67.9/100. n s nhanh chng bt kp
Trung Quc, c bit l trong kha cnh tim nng th trng. Trn thc t,
chnh lch trong c tim nng v ri ro th rt gn vi Trung Quc cho thp s
xut hin ca n nh l mt th trng kt cu h tng nng ng nht khu
vc.
Paksitan vn ng v tr cht trong bng xp hng, mc d vi ci thin mt
cht trong im s mc 29.2. Tuy vy, cc ri ro ln m cc nh u t phi i
mt cng vi tim nng tng trng thp v mt hon vn ngha l th trng ny
vn b coi l thiu tnh hp dn cho cc nh u t kt cu h tng.

40

Bng Xp hng mi trung kinh doanh kt cu h tng ca khu vc Chu

Thi Bnh Dung
Hn ch ca kh nng hon vn
Ri ro hon vn thc t
KCHT
Quc gia
Th trung Quc gia
Th trng
Cu trc Gii hn
Ri ro
Ri ro

Ri ro

Xp
hng
KCHT

Trung Quc

77.5

71.3

75.3

50.0

67.7

60.6

70.9 1

Singapore

45.0

84.4

58.8

95.0

89.9

92.0

68.7 2

Hn Quc

57.5

80.3

65.5

75.0

75.2

75.1

68.4 3

85.0

48.9

72.4

50.0

62.3

57.4

67.9 4

Hong Kong

27.5

84.8

47.6

85.0

77.2

80.3

57.4 5

i Loan

32.5

71.2

46.1

75.0

74.5

74.7

54.6 6

Vit Nam

60.0

42.3

53.8

35.0

49.2

43.5

50.7 7

Thi Lan

30.0

75.7

46.0

55.0

62.5

59.5

50.1 8

Indonesia

57.5

45.9

53.4

24.0

53.7

41.8

49.9 9

Malaysia

27.5

71.5

42.9

55.0

73.5

66.1

49.9 10

Philippines

35.0

52.3

41.1

35.0

51.4

44.8

42.2 11

Pakistan

20.0

40.1

27.0

35.0

33.6

34.2

29.2 12

46.3

64.1

52.5

55.8

64.2

60.8

55.0

Xp hng
khu vc

Bnh qun
vng

Ngun: BMI. Thang im 100 nh gi mi trng kinh doanh KCHT l mt xp hng cn bn. N
bao gm hai phn xp hng hn ch trong kh nng hon vn v rui ro thc hin hon vn, mi
yu t c trong s tng ng l 70 v 30. Ngc li, xp hng "gii hn" th gm c th trng
KCHT v cu trc quc gia, mi ci c trng s tng ng l 65 v 35 mt cch tng ng v c
cn c vo tng trng/quy m ca ngnh(th trng) KCHT v mi trng kinh t - x hi v nhn
khu ca c quc gia. Xp hng ri ro li gm c Ri ro th trng v ri ro quc gia, mi ci c
trng quyn tng ng l 40 v 60% mt cch tng ng v c cn c vo nh gi ch quan
v cc kha cnh quy nh v tnh cnh trnh ca ngnh cng nghip v mc ri ro ca ton
quc gia, ci ny th li da trn xp hng ri ro quc gia bn quyn ca BMI. Cu trc xp hng
ph hp vi 14 ngnh m MBI c phng php nh gi mi trng kinh doanh, v c thit k
khuyn khch khch hng xem xt mi xp hng mt cch c lp hoc tng th, mi la chn li
ph thuc vo s quan tm ti ngnh c th trong mi mt nc nht nh. i vi danh sch d
liu/ cc ch tiu s dng, vui lng xem thm phn phc lc ti phn cui ca bo co.

41

XP HNG TI CHNH D N
Xp hng ti chnh d n ca Vit Nam
Thit k v xy dng xp hng ti chnh d n ca Vit Nam
Ri ro php lut v th ch l nhng vn rt ln ca Vit Nam trong giai
on thit k v xy dng. Vi im s 33.1, Vit Nam l nc th ba thp
nht trong khu vc. H thng php lut ngho nn cng vi ph bin tham
nhng khin cho Vit Nam ch tng ng vi Phi-Lp-Pin v n trong
phn xp hng ny. V phn ri ro kinh t v mi trng chnh tr, Vit Nam
c nh gi tt hn vi s im thuyt phc ln lt l 50.6 v 59.4.
Chun b v vn hnh
Vit Nam cng gp kh khn trong cnh tranh giai on ny vi s im ch
khong 50 trong hu ht cc lnh vc. Lnh vc nng lng v doanh nghip
cng ch b tc ng bi s tng gi du v iu chnh ca BMI v d bo gi
du cho nhng nm tip theo. Vi s gia tng trong chi ph vn hnh pht in
th doanh thu d bo trong di hn s b gim. Kt qu l, Vit Nam ch t c
46,1 im cho giai on chun b v vn hnh, ng b tr s 8 trong khu vc.
Xp hng ti chnh tng qut
Khung th ch yu km trong lnh vc PPP ca Vit Nam lm gim tng
im ca quc gia ny. Cng vi Trung Quc, Vit Nam ch t mc 5/10 ch ra
rng cn rt nhiu iu cn c ci thin. S ph bin ca tham nhng cng
nh hng n xp hng ti chnh d n dn n ko xp hng ca Vit Nam
gim do cc ri ro vn c v u t. Tng th, Vit Nam t c s im 46.4,
ng th 3 t di ln trong khu vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng.

Tng quan v vng

Xp hng ti chnh d n: Trin vng cho Chu Thi Bnh Dng
Trong Q2 nm 2010, chng ti gii thiu mt nhm cc quc gia mi trong
nh gi xp hng ti chnh ca BMI, bao gm tt c cc nc pht trin m
chng ti c xp hng. iu ny c thc hin trong n lc nhm so snh
tng ng v mc phc tp v trng thnh ca PPP v th trng ti chnh
d n. nh ngha cc nc pht trin c a ra bi nhm ri ro quc gia ca
BMI cng c chng ti s dng. Nh vy, nhm cc nc pht trin gm: c,
M, c, Anh, Php, Nht v Hy Lp.
c trng ca cc quc gia pht trin l c khung php l v ti chnh thuc
42

lnh vc kt cu h tng kh cht ch, iu ny c phn nh thng qua im

s m cc nc ny c c cho nhm ch tiu ri ro th ch v php lut. Hn
na, bo m v n nh chnh tr, tnh lin tc ca chnh sch ng thi to
tnh n nh cho mi trng hot ng ca mt ti sn.
Xp hng ti chnh d n ca BMI a ra cc so snh ton cu, nh gi
ri ro da trn s liu s p dng cho cc d n h tng trong lnh vc
nng lng, vn ti v xy dng thng mi. c bit, n nh gi mc
bt nh ca cc d n c c trng sau: Thi gian xy dng di; chi ph xy
dng cao; kh khn trong chuyn i cc ti sn c dnh ca d n (trm nng
lng) sang cc mc ch s dng khc; li nhun c uc sau khi d n d
hon thnh.
Xp hng ti chnh d n uc s dng tt nht nh gi mc ri ro su
rng cc d n kt cu h tng gp phi m nh hng ti ngun, s sn c v
chi ph ti chnh. Nh vy, trong mt mi trung ti chnh ton cu hn ch i
vi nhng d n nh vy, n s cung cp cc ch tiu quan trng cho chi ph ti
chnh ca cc d n chnh v tc tng trng ca kt cu h tng s din ra
trong mi quc gia.
Chng ti to ra hai bng khch nhau nhm xc nh, phn tch v nh
gi tt hn cc nhm ri ro m cc nh ti tr, cng ty c th gp phi trong
vng i d n. Hai bng ny gm rt rng ri bng th nht m t giai on
thit k, k thut v xy dng d n v bng th hai l giai on chun b v vn
hnh. Hai im s cui cng ca mi quc gia c kt hp li c c xp
hng ti chnh ton b.
Trng s cho mi ch tiu v nhm cc ch tiu (ri ro u vo, quy dnh v th
trung) phn nh tm quan trng tng i ca chng, v nh vy mc ri ro
lin quan, chng tc ng vo cc nh ti tr v cc ch s hu.
Sn chi trong khu vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng, thng 1 nm 2010
Mc linh ng c trng ca nn kinh t ton cu trong nm 2009 khng
cn. iu ny c ch ra bi Ch s linh ng (VIX) do Ban Ngoi hi
Chicago cng b, ch s ny trong thi k cao nht ca khng hong (20 thng
10 nm 2008) mc 80.86, trong khi ngy u tin ca nm 2010 l lng
quanh mc 19, ch ra rng s tr li vi iu kin th trng bnh thng. VIX
l mt phn ma trn xp hng ti chnh d n ca chng ti v s tr li ca ch
tiu ny v mc thng thng s cng c xp hng ca chng ti v n nh
kinh t v ti chnh.
43

Kt qu l, mc linh ng lm nh tr nn kinh t ca Chu Thi

Bnh Dng, to ng cho gia tng tnh t tin lin quan ti sc bt ca nhu
cu Chu v ti sn kt cu h tng, ng lc c bn ng sau s gia tng
nhu cu ca nh u t. Mt ln na, chng ti tp trung vo s tng trng
nhanh ca ca qy kt cu h tng hng ti th trng Chu Thi Bnh
Dng, s ni ln ca chu v cc nc pht trin, nh mt bng chng ca
s thn trng nhng l qu trnh hi phc bn vng trong ti tr kt cu h tng
cho khu vc ny.
im ch quan trng trong Qu 2 nm 2010 chnh l im s ca cc quc
gia trong giai on chun b v vn hnh gim. S st gim ny ch ra
rng nhng ri ro c th hn trong giai on sau ca vng i d n. V vy
iu ny ko ton b im s ti chnh d n xung ca mi quc gia v
c khu vc.
Do s thay i trong im s nh hng ti tt c cc quc gia, xp hng v
v tr khng thay i nhiu. V tr dn u ti Chu Thi Bnh Dng
vn l Hng Kng v Singapore. Cui nm 2008, im s ti chnh d n
tng th trong v tr hng u ca bng xp hng l thp so vi im s 83
(Hong Kong) v 78 (Singapore). Cng cn ch rng cc quc gia trong
khu vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng c im s chnh lch rt ln gia nhm
dn u v nhm ng cui, s khc bit ny l gn 46 im gia Hong
Kong ng u v cui cng l Pakistan.
im s ca Trung Quc gia tng rt ln trong qu ny, t 59.8 ti 63.2
im. Quc gia ny c gng thot khi tnh trng suy gim im s
trong giai on vn hnh ca cc d n nng lng nh l kt qu ca mc
k vng v gi du cao hn. Trong khi phn ln cc quc gia mt im
ch yu l do ch s ny, th lm pht thp ca Trung Quc lm gim cc
tc ng i vi gia tng gi du trong 4 nm ti.
n l nc duy nht c s im s tng trong qu ny. im s ca n
bng n nh s gia tng trong xp hng ri ro chnh tr, iu ny cho
thy mc n nh hn ca chnh tr trong di hn. Nh vy, xp hng ri ro
vn hnh ca n tr nn ha hn hn.
Mt vi cc ri ro nghim trng theo nh xp hng ca chng ti ( nhng
nc c im s di 5 trn thang im 10) l: Th ch PPP yu km ca
Trung Quc, Indonesia, v Vit Nam; ri ro gia tng v nhu cu cho lnh vc
kt cu h tng giao thng ti Hong Kong v Singapore; tnh km hiu lc
ca hp ng ti n v Indonesia; s linh hot ca tin t ti Pakistan v
44

Indonesia (c hai nc u c im s 0 trn 10); nhu cu v ri ro v gi ti

ngnh nng lng v vn ti ca Indonesia; ri ro an ninh ti Pakistan; v
tham nhng ti Philiphines v Vit Nam.
Giai on k thut v xy dng
Bng k thut v xy dng gm nhng nhn t nh lm pht, s bin ng
tin t di hn (nh vy c coi nh l u vo), nhng nhn t m ti giai
on ny nh hng c bn ti chi ph ch s hu v n, nhng cng c chi
ph nguyn vt liu th nu chng l nhng ngun lc c huy ng t ni
a v nh y tng chi ph ca c d n cng nh ri ro v mt th ch v lut
php m cng ty hay nh ti tr c th phi i mt lm nh tr vic khi
cng xy dng v cc vn v th ch. Lin quan cht ch ti ri ro lut
php v th ch l cc nhn t ri ro trong khun kh chnh tr rng hn,
bao gm nhng nhn t chnh tr nh mc hiu lc ca cc quy nh ca
lut php, s lin tc ca chnh sch di hn v c tn trng cng nh s
thng nht chnh sch ca chnh ph theo thi gian. Cui nhng khng
phi l tn cng chnh l cc yu t ri ro ti chnh, bao gm s n nh
kinh t ni a v s sn c ca ngun ti chnh quc t.
Ni mt cch rng hn, chng ti c th phn bit c bn di/nhm trong
bng phn hng ny. Khng c g ngc nhin khi trong bng xp hng ca chng
ti cho Chu Thi Bnh Dng th Singapore v Hong Kong ng v tr u
bng vi im s 70 trn 100 nh vo mi trng th ch, quy nh v ngn
hng hp l cng nh s tng trng mnh trong hot ng ti chnh d n.
Cun sch s tay v PPP dy 90 trang ca Singapore c xut bn u nm 2004
bi b ti chnh c th l mt hng dn v quy nh v th tc v PPP y
nht so vi bt k n phm ca quc gia no trn th gii, n nhn mnh mong
mun ca chnh ph Singapore trong n lc to ra mt mi trng hp dn v kh
nng cho vic thc hin thnh cng cc d n PPP; y l mc tiu m h t
c bi v Singapore to ra mt mi trng n nh nht trong khu vc v
trn th gii. im s cao ca Singapore trong ch tiu v khun kh PPP
cng c cho v tr dn u trong bng xp hng thit k v xy dng khu vc.
i loan, Malaysia, Hn Quc, v Trung Quc ng tip theo v gn nht vi
nhm dn u nhng xa nhm tip theo (vi im s trn 60). im s ca
Trung Quc trong ch tiu ny c s gia tng ln nht nh vo k vng
lm pht tt hn. Mi trng php lut v quy ch ca Malaysia li nhiu
iu kin ci thin tt hn v y l mt thc t lm gim im ca quc
gia ny, do khung php l yu km, c bit l thc trng tnh hiu lc thp
45

ca hp ng ti Malaysia l mt trong nhng ri ro m cc nh thu v nh

ti tr gp phi trong giai on u ca vng i d n.
Trong nhm th ba v nhm th t (im s t 50, 49 v thp hn) chng ti
nhn thy nhm th t c th trng kt cu h tng nng ng nht ti Chu :
n , Philippines, Vit Nam v Indonesia. Mc d giai on pht trin kt
cu h tng n tng ca bn quc gia ny khi ng trong na thp k
trc, nhng h vn c nhng ri ro khng khip, nhng ri ro lin quan ti
hot ng ti chnh d n.
Cng cn ch rng im yu chung ca bn quc gia chnh l mi trng
lut php v qui nh, nhng lnh vc m im s ca c bn tng i hi t.
Tham nhng, khung PPP, lut php v hiu lc ca hp ng l ba ch tiu lm
nn nhm quc gia ny. Trong gn nh tt c cc ch tiu ny Vit Nam,
Philippines, n v Indonesia u c im s thp hn 10.
Pakistan vn ng v tr cui cng trong bng xp hng do c im s thp nht
i vi u vo v mi trng chnh tr/ an ninh.

Bng: nh gi k thut v xy dng

Ri ro
nh/
php

quy
lut

Singapore
Hong Kong

84.0
82.0

86.7

Mi
trung
chnh tr
88.0
83.6

i Loan

84.0

61.7

Malaysia

80.0

Nam Triu Tin

u vo

Ri ro kinh t/ti
chnh

T
ng

58.4
57.4

76.1
74.7

77.7

57.2

68.6

60.4

73.5

53.4

65.1

54.0

74.0

81.5

52.7

64.4

Trung Quc

92.0

49.0

60.7

56.5

63.2

Thi Lan

74.0

56.3

58.7

51.5

58.8

70.0

33.4

65.2

53.1

55.6

Philippines

58.0

39.2

58.9

50.4

51.8

Viet Nam

32.0

33.1

59.4

50.6

45.6

Indonesia

12.0

23.1

60.5

51.5

40.2

Pakistan

12.0

19.9

43.8

44.9

33.1

Ngun BMI

46

Chun b v vn hnh
Bng xc nh cc nhn t tim nng c nh hng ti mc ri ro trong giai
on chun b v vn hnh ca mt d n th c phn nh thnh ba nhm:
Giao thng, nng lng v doanh nghip cng ch v xy dng thng mi.
Mc tiu l phn nh mc ri ro khc nhau m mt nh my nng pht
in gp phi do mt con ng b thu ph hoc mt sn vn ng trong giai
on vn hnh ca vng i d n. Mc tiu chnh l to thm mc khc
bit gia cc tiu ngnh h tng, v mc d cc nhm tiu ngnh trong bng ny
l tng t cho c ba ngnh ln, nhng im s c tnh khc nhau cho mi
quc gia trong mi ngnh, iu ny cho php chng ti o lng mc ri ro
tim nng v nhng tc ng ti chnh do thiu ht c th c.
S gia tng ca gi du v nhng iu chnh tng ca BMI v d bo gi du
trong nhng nm ti l gim im s ca nhiu quc gia. iu ny l bi v
yu t xc nh u vo chnh cho ngnh nng lng v doanh nghip cng ch
l gi du. K vng gi cao hn cng c ngha rng chi ph vn hnh cc trm
nng lng s cng gia tng v nh vy e da ti dng doanh thu di hn ca
cc ti sn . V l do ny, trong Q2 nm 2010 chng ti nhn thy i vi
nhiu quc gia, im s u vo cho ngnh nng lng v doanh nghip cng
ch gim, ko theo s st gim im s trn phm vi c quc gia.
Bng: Xp hng chun b v vn hnh
Thng mi/ kinh doanh

Hong Kong

u vo
u ra
68.5
72.4

u ra ca ngnh
nng lng v
u
Vn ti
doanh
nghip
vo
u
vo
u
ra
Tng
cng ch Tng
Tng
71.2
83.5
71.2
74.9
88.0
68.4
74.3

Singapore

69.5

67.3

68.0

79.5

67.3

71.0

76.0

65.0

68.3

Trung Quc

88.5

57.5

66.8

76.0

56.4

62.2

88.0

56.9

66.2

i Loan

82.0

54.3

62.6

67.0

54.3

58.1

76.0

52.1

59.2

Malaysia

62.5

51.2

54.6

75.0

51.7

58.7

70.0

51.7

57.2

55.0

54.1

54.4

70.0

55.2

59.7

70.0

54.7

59.3

Hn Quc

42.0

53.3

49.9

49.5

52.7

51.8

36.0

53.3

48.1

Vit Nam

48.5

49.5

49.2

38.5

49.5

46.2

38.0

49.5

46.1

Thi Lan

57.0

45.3

48.8

72.0

45.3

53.3

66.0

43.1

49.9

Philippines

56.5

42.3

46.5

61.5

44.0

49.2

52.0

44.0

46.4

Indonesia
Pakistan

8.5
11.0

38.0
25.1

29.1
20.9

21.0
28.5

38.6
25.6

33.3
26.5

8.0
8.0

38.6
25.1

29.4
20.0

47

Ngun: BMI

nh gi tng th xp hng ti chnh cho khu vc chu Thi Bnh

Dng
Kt hp im s ca hai bng chng ti tng hp thnh bng xp hng tng
th ti chnh d n, bng ny c tnh ti ton b cc ngnh v tiu ngnh
trn. y, chng ti cng c th phn loi kt qu cc quc gia thnh bn
nhm hay bn di, mi nhm tng ng vi mc ri ro m c th nh hng
ti ngun, kh nng huy ng v chi ph ti chnh. Trong nhm dn u (im
s 70 v hn) chng ti thy Singapore v Hong Kong c c tnh tng qut v
cc yu t th trng to lp mi trng an ton nht trong khu vc cho hot
ng ti chnh d n. Cn c vo im s tng th ca c hai quc gia,
Singapore c mc ri ro thp hn trong giai on pht trin nhng nhiu bt
n hn trong di hn trong khi Hong Kong c mc im cao nht cho giai on
chun b v vn hnh.
Vit Nam, Philiphines, Indonesia, v Pakistan vn v tr cui cng trong
bng xp hng ca chng ti trong qu ny. Mc d xp hng ca Vit Nam
c nhng ri ro tng gi tr u t do lm pht gim, nhng xp hng ri ro
cng bao gm nhng vn cu trc tim n trong xp hng mi trng kinh
doanh tng qut ca quc gia ny v d nh tham nhng, can thip qu su ca
chnh ph vo mt s ngnh nh ngnh nng lng v doanh nghip cng ch.
im s cho khung php lut v quy nh ca Indonesia cng c nhng tin
b nh vo nhng thay i gn y trong quy nh v PPP cng vi vic ra
i ca c quan m bo quc gia hot ng c bit trong lnh vc kt cu
h tng (Thng 1 nm 2010). Pakistan vn y dy nhng vn v cu trc,
cc vn ny kt hp vi nhau lm cho quc gia ny c im s thp
nht trong khu vc v kt qu l c h s ri ro nht, iu ny ch ra mi d
n trong lnh vc kt cu h tng u c nhng ri ro ln c trong giai on
xy dng, tim nng hon vn u t trong di hn.

48

Bng: nh gi tng th xp hng ti chnh cho khu vc chu Thi Bnh Duong

Hong Kong
Singapore

Xp hng thit k v
xy dng
74.7
76.1

Chun
dng

b v xy
Tng
69.1

th
74.1
72.6

i Loan

68.6

60.0

64.3

Trung Quc

63.2

65.1

64.1

Malaysia

65.1

56.8

61.0

Hn Quc

64.4

49.9

57.2

55.6

57.8

56.7

Thi Lan

58.8

50.7

54.7

Philippines

51.8

47.4

49.6

Vit Nam

45.6

47.2

46.4

Indonesia

40.2

30.6

35.4

Pakistan

33.1

22.4

27.7

Ngun: BMI

Ri ro v nhng hn ch trong xp hng ti chnh d n ca BMI

Cn ch rng mc d chng ti tin rng cc im s kt qu l ch dn ng
tin cy cho ri ro ti chnh d n, xp hng ti chnh d n nh gi ri ro ton
ngnh hn l cho tng d n. iu ny hm cha mt s : Th nht, s c
nhng trng hp m h s ri ro - v d nh vic cung cp u vo ca mt
d n c th c th c cng b rt khc so vi mc ri ro chung ph bin ti
mi quc gia. Th hai, xp hng ti chnh d n s khng tnh ti gii php
gim thiu ri ro ca khu vc t khi tham gia d n khi c cu ti chnh - v
d nh - nh s bo m vn t cc t chc ti tr, chnh ph.

49

TRIN VNG KINH T V M

Kch bn chnh ca chng ti gi l st gim kp
Quan im ca BMI Vi cn cn thanh ton ca Vit Nam mt ln na tip cn ti
im ngot, chng ti k vng mt s tht cht mnh m trong chnh sch ti kha v tin
t trong nm 2010 m s chng kin mc tng trng GDP tt cn 4,4% t mc d bo l
5,1% nm 2009. iu ny s tng s ch trch chnh sch kinh t ca Quc hi kha 11
nhng chng ti k vng chng trnh ci t th trng s c duy tr.
Chng ti chuyn trin vng tng trng ca Vit Nam t mc phc hi dn
dn trong nm 2010 bng mt s tt gim trong tng trng GDP t mc 5,1% nm
2009 cn 4,4% nm 2010. iu ny c cn c vo k vng ca chng ti rng chnh
sch ti kha v tin t s c tht cht mnh m trong nm 2010 km hm s thm
ht thng mi v ct gim mt na p lc lm pht. Trin vng cho Vit Nam c nhiu
tng ng vi trin vng cho Trung Quc. Tuy nhin, trong khi mc tiu chnh sch
ca cc chnh ph ny l ging nhau, th chng ti nhn thy cc quan tm v m ti
Vit Nam ng bo ng hn, t nht trong ngn hn khi ngun tin v ti chnh ca
H Ni b nh gi l tng i hn ch.
Kt qu l, chng ti nhn thy rt c th vic chuyn sang chnh sch tht cht
tin t v ti kha l khng th trnh khi v s n sm ti Vit Nam hn Trung Quc.
Chnh sch kch cu ca H Ni gip hi phc kinh t t mc thp 3,1% trong Q1 nm
2009 ti 5,2% trong Q3 nm 2009 nhng n cng l mt nhn t ch yu m theo quan
im ca chng ti l lm gia tng thm ht cn cn thng mi trong cng thi k,
mc 1,9 t trong thng 10. Trong khi vic tr li tng trng dng ti cc th trng
G3 trong na sau nm 2009 v 2010 to nhng thun li cho xut khu ca Vit Nam,
nhng chng ti tin s tip tc ca chnh sch h tr ny s dn ti mc thm ht
thng mi cao hn.
Vi mc d tr ngoi t ca Vit Nam trong Q4 nm 2009 c c lng di
mc ba thng nhp khu (mc ti thiu), chng ti tin rng hnh ng chnh sch s cn
c tp trung vo trnh khng hong cn cn thanh ton. iu ny s bao gm:
iu chnh xung ca tin ng ti mc 19.000/USD nh d bo
vo cui nm 2009 ca chng ti (t mc 17.862 vo thng 6 nm
2009) bt ngun t dng tin USD ra khi VN qua knh thng mi.
Bc tin di ca chnh sch t gi nm gi c lng tin ca
cng chng i vi tin ng, bt ngun t dng chy ra ca vn
u t, v gm nhng p lc gia tng trong lm pht do gi nhp
khu ngy cng tng. Gi chng ti k vng mt bc iu chnh 500
50

im c s (1% thay i = 100 im c s) trong nm 2010, nng li sut c

bn t 7% thng 11 nm 2009 ln 12%.
Mt s st gim ca thm ht ti kha/ ngn sch t 118 nghn t ng
(6,6 t la) hay 7,2% GDP ti 105 nghn t ng (5,9 t la) hay
5,7% GDP trong nm 2010 do s st gim trong tng trng ca c chi
tiu vn v ti khon vng lai.

Hm cho tng trng

Chng ti k vng s tht cht tin t v ti kha s dn ti hai s suy gim kp
trong tng trng sau bc c th phc hi trong ba qu cui ca nm 2009. Do tng
trng yu trong th trng ca G3 s nh hng ti xut khu v cn tr s ci tin
ca th trng trong xut khu dng bt chp s ph gi ca tin ng v vy chng ti
k vng tng trng GDP thc t nm 2010 l 4,4%.
iu ny s l s suy gim trong cu ni a nng n hn. Vi mc lm pht
k vng mc bnh qun quanh 9% trong nm 2010, chng ti k vng chi tiu
chnh ph s gim 3,5% theo gi thc t, gi tr ny s hn ch 0,3 im % (PP) trong
tng trng. Mt tc ng ng ch khc s n t s suy gim trong tng trng
tiu dng t nhn do iu kin tn dng b tht cht. Chng ti d bo tng trng tiu
dng t nhn (gi thc t) gim 2,3% t mc d bo 4,9% nm 2009 v 9,2% nm
2008. iu ny chng kin mc suy gim ca chi tiu c nhn i vi tng trng t
1,6 im % nm 2010 t mc 3,3 im % trong nm 2009 v mc rt ln 6 im %
nm 2008.
Mt khc, chng ti cng d bo s gia tng trong ng gp ca vic hnh
thnh ti sn c nh cho tng trng t mc 0,4 im % do gii ngn FDI, gim
12,1% mi nm t 8 t trong giai on t thng 1 ti 10 nm 2009, phc hi v d
n chnh ph ti tr. Tuy nhin, trng thi bt n ca th trng bt ng sn, y
cc hot ng v gi c c h tr nh cc chng trnh kch cu- l mt ri ro
cho d bo ny. Trong khi ch mt phn rt nh vic mua bn t c ti tr thng
qua cho vay ngn hng, th mc li sut cao hn s c nhng tc ng ti th trng
ny v hot ng xy dng dn dng, thng mi.

51

Chnh sch cn bng ti i hi nm 2011

Chng ti cho rng s suy gim tng trng trong nm 2009 v 2010 lm cho
chnh sch kinh t s l ch tho lun chnh trong i hi ng ln th 11 d kin vo
thng 1 nm 2011. Thng trm ca kinh t v m trong nhng nm gn y lm gia tng
ch trch i vi Th tng Nguyn Tn Dng - nhn vt quan trng nht ca ci t kinh
t - t cc thnh vin bo th trong b chnh tr. Chng ti tin cc tr ct chnh ca ng
cng sn th vn ng sau chng trnh ci cch ca Th tng Nguyn Tn Dng,
ngha l s khng c nhng dch chuyn mnh m trong chin lc pht trin kinh t x
hi giai on 2011-2016.
Tuy nhin, chng ti d bo cc gii php s c thc hin t c n
nh kinh t v m tt hn, gm s iu chnh gim mc tiu tng trng chnh thc,
s thay i trong chnh sch tin t theo hng hng vo lm pht v chnh sch t
gi linh hot. Do mi trng kinh t ton cu c coi l t hp dn hn so vi giai on
bng n 2003-2007, iu ny c th phi tr gi bng st gim tng trng kinh t trong
ngn hn v chng ti d bo tng trng GDP thc t 5,5% v 6% trong nm 2011 v
2012. Mt khc, nhng quyt nh sai lm trong chnh sch ti cn bng kinh t s to
ri ro ln trong ch tiu chnh sch n nh nh c cho im trong phn trn, Vit
Nam c 43,8 trn 100 cho xp hng ri ro kinh t ngn hn.
Bng: Hot ng kinh t Vit Nam
2005
GDP danh
ngha (ty.)
GDP danh
nghia
(ty.USD)

2006

2007

2008

2009f

2010f

2011f

2012f

2013f

2014f

83,921 974,26 114405 147865 162870 182505 205325 228845 256266 285563

52.9
60.9
71.1 89.8
Tng
trng
thc t nm
8.4
8.2
8.5 6.2
GDP
bnh
qun
u
ngi
637
724
835
1,035
Dn s, triu
83.2
84.4
85.6 86.8e
Cng nghip
Ch s sn xut
17.7
16.8
16.7 14.9
Tht nghip
T l tham gia
5.3
4.8
4.6 5
lao ng
Ch : e BMI c lng. f BMI d bo.
IMF; 4 General Statistics Office

85.7

96.1

5.1

4.4

974
88

Gi 1994, ngun

108.1

123.7

5.5 6

138.5

154.4

6.8

6.9

1,077
1,195
1,350
1,492
1,640
89.2
90.4
91.6
92.8
94.1

6.8 10
5.5
2

12
5.5 5

14

14
4.5 4

IMF (General Statistics Office);

14
4

52

VIN CNH CHNH TR

Quan h vi Trung Quc trong u tranh quyn lc ni chnh
Quan dim ca BMI Quan h Vit-Trung tr thnh trn chin trong ni b
ca ng Cng sn Vit Nam, tp hp cc nh ci t ng h Th tng Nguyn Tn
Dng chng li cc thnh vin bo th trong B Chnh tr, nhng ngi c quan h
vi Trung Quc. Vi hai nhm ny tm kim vic tng cng v th trc i hi
2011, chng ti tin rng cc nh ci t s vn chim th thng phong.
i mt vi s xm nhp ngy cng gia tng v s h tr ca cc blogger,
ng Cng sn gn y tm kim cng c gim st v kim sot quan im
ca cng chng. D g, cc nh theo l tng trong B chnh tr gi ang tranh lun
rng nhng gii by bt ng ngy cng gia tng i vi cc chnh sch cng trn
mng l bng chng rng chng trnh ci t ca Th tng Nguyn Tn Dng
ang ngoi tm kim sot, nh vy cn c mt s ti nh hng chnh sch.
Thc vy, iu ny tr thnh ch chnh trc thm i hi, d kin vo u nm
2011, iu ny e da i ng cc nh ci cch kinh t trong cuc tranh lun vi cc
nh l tng bo th trong s kim tm mt s thng nht chnh tr.
Tng trng kinh t nhanh trong nhng nm gn y lm suy yu c s cho
cc bt ng chnh tr ti Vit Nam do cng chng tm thy t l do ht cng
mt ch m em n nhng gia tng hu hnh cho phn ln dn s. Tuy vy,
ng cng sn ngy cng yu i do cc quan im chnh tr ca cng chng ngy
cng tng nh vic d dng tip cn vi mng internet v cc din n trn mng
nhng th m phn ln dn s Vit Nam by gi mi c hng th. Chnh quyn
Vit Nam c lng rng c 21 triu ngi Vit Nam s dng Internet v theo bo
co c khong t mt ti bn triu blogs, thuc rt nhiu ch . kim sot c
khi lng ln cc ni dung ny, chnh ph qun l ni dung v s dng internet thng
qua cng c k thut v lut php nhng ngi s dng ang tm kim nhng gii
php vt qua nhng gii php ny, bt chp nhng x pht rt nng t chnh ph.

Trung Quc chim phn ln tho lun trn Internet

Ch kch ng nht ca cc blog Vit Nam trong nm qua chnh l quan h
gia Vit Nam v Trung Quc, quan h c kim chng qua cc tranh chp hin ti
lin quan ti cc qun o trn Bin ng, d n khai thc B xt y tranh ci c vn
ca Trung Quc ti Ty Nguyn v quan h thng mi bt i xng. Nhiu nh bo v
blogger ch trch chnh ph Vit Nam v Trung Quc v cc tranh chp gia hai
quc gia, nhng ch trch ch yu vo cc vng t mu m, do cng chng Vit Nam
53

qu nhy cm vi tim thc xm lng lnh th ca nc lng ging phng bc.

Vi ch ti H Ni lun e ngi s nhy cm ca Trung Quc ti bt k cc ch
trch no v vic quan tm ti nhu cu duy tr quan h hiu qu vi Bc Kinh, chnh
quyn ny thc hin vic ngn cm nhng m mu phn Trung ca cng chng. iu
ny chng kin s bt gi cc nh bo v bloggers nhng ngi cng b cc bi
bo v bi blogs ch trch Trung Quc, vi c s rng cc ch trch e da ti n lc
ca hai chnh ph trong ci thin quan h kinh t gia hai quc gia. iu ny cho n
nay mang c trng bi dng thng mi qu bt cn i vi dng thc cc hng ha
Trung Quc r tin trn ngp th trng Vit Nam, y cc i th trong nc ph sn,
tr cc mt hng nh than, cao su. S thm ht thng mi khng khip vi Trung Quc
11.1 t la trong nm 2008, gn 12% GDP l mt ch tranh ci gia cc nh lnh
o Vit Nam v Trung Quc trong cc nm gn y v nh vy cng l tm im tho
lun trong chuyn thm Trung Quc ca Th tng Nguyn Tn Dng vo thng 4 nm
2009.
Gii php c nhn thc t c mi quan h kinh t cng c li c thc
y thng qua vic gia tng u t ca Trung Quc ti Vit Nam. Thc s, iu ny c
ngha kinh t bi u t t cc ngun FDI truyn thng ca Vit Nam Malaysia,
Singapore, Hn Quc, i Loan c th s gim trong cc nm ti v cc i tc u t
nc ngoi ti xy dng li bng cn i ca h v gim bt k hoch m rng. Thc
vy, cam kt FDI gim t 85,7% bnh qun nm trong ba qu u ca nm 2009 ti
cn 7,6 t la. Mt kh khn chnh l cng nghip ch tc ca Trung Quc cng tng
ng thm ch l cnh tranh hn so vi Vit Nam, ngha l u t ca Trung Quc vo
Vit Nam tp trung vo cng nghip khai thc, vi mc tiu nhm m bo ngun nng
lng cho ngnh cng nghip khng l ca Trung Quc.
iu ny chm ngi cho lun iu i vi d n B xt ti Lm ng rng
Trung Quc ang n thun khai thc ti nguyn ca Vit Nam, trong khi lm tn hi ti
mi trng ca Ty Nguyn, mt hnh nh v trung tm c ph ca Vit Nam. Cng vi
xu hng cc nh u t Trung Quc mang theo cng nhn ca h thay v thu cng
nhn a phng v nh vy vic phn ng d di ca cng chng i vi d n ny l
iu khng ng ngc nhin. Vi cc gii php k thut b tht bi trong n lc ngn
cn ni dung kch ng trn internet, chnh ph Vit Nam chuyn hng sang bt
gi nhiu cc bloggers v nh bo iu tra cc pht ngn c quan im ch trch.

Cuc ua chnh tr trc i hi 2011

Kh nng kim sot bt ng tr thnh vic quan trng trc i hi 2011 ni
m nhng cuc gp g v quyt nh quan trng s c thc hin. Nhng kh khn ngy
54

cng gia tng trn phng tin bo ch tr thnh tm im cho cc lc lng bo th

trong ng cng sn, nhng ngi tranh lun rng Th tng Dng i qu xa trong
cc chnh sch t do kinh t ca ng. Rng ng tng cng hp tc vi M v cc nc
ng Bc nh Nht, Hn m lm gim i mi quan h ca H Ni vi cc ng ch ti
Bc Kinh. y l nhng i u nghim trng trong hoc trc i hi ng 11.
Chng ti mong Th tng Nguyn Tn Dng duy tr thm quyn ca ng trong
b chnh tr vi t cch l mt th h tr v phn nh th h l tng ca ng Cng sn
ng h cho nhng ci cch kinh t tip din ca ng. Tuy nhin, ng c th i mt vi
nhng phn i ca cc lc lng bo th trong B chnh tr, nhng ngi tin rng
chng trnh t do ha kinh t ca ng ang t v tr thng tr ca ng cng sn Vit
Nam vo quan im ca cng chng - v m rng hn na l quyn lc chnh tr b ri
ro. Thnh vin ca nhm bo th trn c coi l nhng ngi tin phong trong phn i
chng li cc bloggers. Tng cc II (GDII), c quan tnh bo di s nm quyn ca Th
trng B quc phng Nguyn Ch Vnh, c trao quyn theo di v trng pht cc
bt ng chnh tr trn mng internet. Ngi ta vin dn rng lc lng bo th cng s
dng cng ngh, theo lnh ca GDII gim st nhng ngi phn i chnh sch trong
ng, nh vy t c th thng phong trong cuc tranh ginh ti hu trng thc
y cc u vit ca ng cng sn v cc cu trc quyn lc khc. Trong khi c ri ro
rng vic u tranh ni b c th gia tng trc i hi, nhng chng ti nhn nhn s
khng c nhng ri ro chnh vi ng li chnh tr. Nh vy, chng ti duy tr im s
90 trn 100 ca Vit Nam cho ch tiu s n nh chnh sch cho xp hng ri ro chnh tr
ngn hn ca Vit Nam. Vi mc lm pht thp mt con s v nhng xung t vi Trung
Quc v cc qun o ngoi khi, Vit Nam t im s cao 80 trn 100 trong xp hng
ri ro chnh tr ngn hn ca Vit Nam. Mt c tnh thp ca xp hng chnh ch (27,6
trn 100) a ri ro chnh tr di hn ca Vit Nam xung mc 52,8, phn nh nhn nhn
ca chng ti rng n ng lnh o l khng bn vng trong di hn.

55

TNG QUAN TON CU

iu chnh d bo kt cu h tng ton cu (Biu tr67)
Qu 1 nm 2010, BMI a ra chui s liu mi cho lnh vc kt cu h tng v
cc tiu ngnh ca n (giao thng, nng lng, doanh nghip cng ch) nhm c gng
lng ha xu hng v hnh thc tng trng ca cc lnh vc kt cu h tng ti cc th
trng mi ni v pht trin ti 35 trong s 62 th trng chnh trong lnh vc dch v kt
cu h tng ca BMI. Cng vi cc s liu mi, chng ti iu chnh nhng kt lun
v nhn mnh nhng thay i trong trin vng kinh t v m ton cu tc ng nh th
no ti cc pht hin ban u ca chng ti.
Cc pht hin s b
Pht hin quan trng t vic to ra chui s liu mi chnh l t l ca ngnh
xy dng trong gi tr kt cu h tng s tip tc leo thang trong cc th trng
mi ni c tc tng trng nhanh nht cho ti cui thi k d bo ca chng
ti vo nm 2014. Ngc li, trong cc th trng pht trin, t l ca ngnh
kt cu h tng trong tng gi tr ngnh xy dng s gi nguyn hoc s gim
dn.
Kt lun mi theo iu chnh ca d bo chnh ca chng ti cho Trung Quc ch
ra rng nm 2010 s l nm u tin gi tr ngnh kt cu h tng ca Trung
Quc s vt qua v tr ca M, nh vy tr thnh th trng kt cu h tng ln
nht ton cu. iu ny bt ngun t hai nhn t: Th nht, hot ng kinh t
mnh m ca Trung Quc trong nm 2009 thc y ngnh ny. Th hai, v
lin quan ti im th hai l, mc d c Trung Quc v M c nhng k
hoch kch thch kt cu h tng tr gi hng t la, vic trin khai d n ca
Trung Quc c v mang tnh ngay lp tc hn M
Trung Quc dn u th gii v gi tr kt cu h tng, sau l M v Nht Bn,
tip l cc nc BRIC khc (Brazil, Nga, v n ), sau na Php theo sau
Nga vi mc chnh lch rt nh, nhng theo nh cc d bo ca chng ti, ti
cui thi k d bo n , Brazil v Nga s tip tc gia tng s khc bit gia
cc nc ny vi cc nc khng thuc BRIC (tr trng hp ca M v Nht
Bn).
Phng php lun v mt s gi nh then cht
Phng php lun ca BMI cn c vo cc gi nh then cht l nhm cc
quc gia c cng qu o pht trin kinh t s c cng hnh thc u t
vo kt cu h tng. Gi nh ny cho php ngoi suy t l kt cu h tng/xy
56

dng cho nhiu nhm quc gia hn l nhng g c thc hin trc y.
Hn na, s liu d n sn c ca BMI to iu kin cho chng ti xc nh
c trng ca mi quc gia, t l cc ngnh trong qu kh so vi cc ngnh
ny (v d nh sn bay nh l mt phn ca kt cu h tng giao thng) cho
thi k t nht l ba nm. Xng sng ca chui s liu v kt cu h tng mi
ca BMI l s kt hp ca: D bo gi tr cng nghip v kinh t v m ca
BMI v b) t l cc ngnh h tng c ngoi suy t cch tip cn t trn
xung v t di ln nh c phc ha trn. Nh vy ln u tin, vic so
snh ton cu c thc hin, chui s liu qu kh v kt cu h tng ton
cu cng nh cc tiu ngnh h tng trong cc lnh vc giao thng, nng lng,
cng ch. Tt c cc kt qu ny to iu kin tnh ton cho d bo 5 nm.
Xp hng kt cu h tng ca cc quc gia
Mi th bc bao gm mt nhm cc quc gia m c cng mt qu o pht trin
kinh t v c cng hnh thc chi tiu vo lnh vc kt cu h tng, trnh pht
trin kt cu h tng v mc trng thnh ca mi lnh vc. Phng php lun
ny to iu kin chng ti xc nhn v vt qua nhng thiu ht trong d
liu c th v kt cu h tng, thng qua p dng t l bnh qun cho mi nhm
quc gia (c tnh t cc quc gia c s liu) p dng cho cc quc gia
thiu s liu.
Cp bc I - trng thi pht trin
c tnh chung: Th trng kt cu h tng trng thnh, u t nhm hng
ti duy tr h thng ti sn hin c hoc cc d n thc s tin tin thuc nh ca
chui gi tr. Theo nh d liu v kt cu h tng ca BMI th t l kt cu h
tng trn tng ngnh xy dng chim bnh qun 30%. Cc nc thuc bc I:
c, Hy Lp, M, Php, Hong Kong, i Loan, Singapore, Israel, Nht Bn v
c.
Bc II Nhng th trng chnh ang ni
c tnh chung: Tc tng trng nhanh nht ca cc th trng mi ni,
u t cho kt cu h tng c coi l u tin chin lc ca chnh ph. Phm vi
cho cc h thng kt cu h tng mi rt a dng t mc ht sc c bn
(ng cao tc, ng st lin vn) cho ti cc d n c gi tr cao (nng lng
ti to, giao thng th). Theo nhu d liu v kt cu h tng ca BMI th t l
kt cu h tng trn tng ngnh xy dng chim bnh qun 45%. Cc nuc thuc
bc II: Mexico, Nam Triu Tin, Peru, Th Nh K, Vit Nam, Ba Lan, Hungary,
Nam Phi, Nigeria, Nga, Trung Quc, n , Brazil, Indonesia.
57

Bc III Mi ni chu u
c tnh chung: Tng tr pht trin kinh t x hi vng m c xc nh
bi s gia nhp gn y hoc ang i gia nhp Lin minh chu u. Pht trin
kt cu h tng chu nh hng ln t mc tiu pht trin Lin minh Chu u v
c ti tr qua cc cng c nhm m rng lin minh ny, Ba Lan v Hungrary:
Nhng h tr cho cc chng trnh ti cu trc cc nn kinh t (PHARE) v cng
c thuc chnh sch c cu phc v cho cc chng trnh tin gia nhp (ISPA) v
thng qua cc th ch nh Ngn hng Ti thit v pht trin chu u (EBRA) v
NH u t chu u (EIB). Theo nhu d liu v KKHT ca BMI th t l KKHT
trn tng ngnh xy dng chim bnh qun trong khong t 30 n 40%. Cc
nuc thuc bc III: Cng ha Sc, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Slovenia,
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Croatia, Ukraine.
S thng tr ca cc quc gia thuc BRIC
Cc con s trn xc nhn xu hng phn tch kt cu h tng ca BMI m
c quan st trong ngnh kt cu h tng ton cu. Trung Quc thng tr lnh
vc kt cu h tng ton cu v mt gi tr. Brazil, Nga, v n trong nm 2010
vn c d bo l tt hu so vi M, Nht Bn trong nm 2010, nhng trong khi
gi tr ca ngnh kt cu h tng ca Nht Bn c d bo l nh tr, th ba quc
gia khc s tip tc dn u, gi tng khong cch gia cc nc ny vi cc nn
kinh t khng thuc BRIC.
Nhng rt c bit rng, Trung Quc khng phi l quc gia c t l kt cu h
tng so vi ngnh xy dng cao nht. Trn thc t, d liu t Cc thng k trung
ng Trung Quc ch ra rng t l ca kt cu h tng so vi tng gi tr ngnh
xy dng c truyn thng thp hn mt phn ba, thp hn xu hng c
thit lp bi cc th trng mi ni tng ng (Bc II). Tuy nhin, tip theo vic
cng b v trin khai k hoch khuyn khch pht trin kt cu h tng, chng ti
c lng rng t l kt cu h tng s c bc nhy ngha v t sau nm 2009 t
l ny ca Trung Quc s gn vi mc 40%.
Mt s thay i ln trong qu ny chnh l s iu chnh trong t l kt cu h
tng so vi ngnh xy dng ca chng ti. D liu mi ca Mexico ngha l
quc gia ny khng cn chim v tr hng u trong bng xp trn. Thay vo ,
Brazil by gi l th trng m chng ti d kin l th trng c t l u t kt
cu h tng so vi ngnh xy dng l ln nht. Kh nng ca chng trnh tng
trng v gia tng ln th hai (PAC) ca Brazil m s chun b ti cc thnh ph
chnh phc v World Cup v Olympics 2016 ti Rio de Janeiro, cho thy v tr ca
quc gia ny thuc im sng hng u.
58

Mt quc gia khc m chun b cho s kin th thao ton cu - Nam Phi ang
ng v tr th 2. Chng ti xc nh rng hu World Cup 2010 th tnh hnh u t
vo kt cu h tng s tip tc, c bit l trong lnh vc nng lng ni m hng
nh nc Eskom ang trin khai mt trong nhng chng trnh m rng vn ln
nht ton cu.
Singapore v Anh l nhng quc gia c t l kt cu h tng so vi ngnh xy
dng l thp nht. C hai thuc cc quc gia cp I, nh vy c th k vng rng
t l kt cu h tng so vi ngnh xy dng s l thp nht. Theo nh d liu t
phng thng k Singapore, t l u t kt cu h tng vi vi ngnh xy dng
t nh cao trong nm 2004, khi n t mc 27% sau thi k ny n bt u suy
gim. Anh mang c trng ni bt ca mt quc gia bc I: Th trng kt cu h
tng trng thnh, ni m vic duy tu vt trn u t mi v c bit kt cu h
tng c t l thp trong ngnh xy dng so vic xy dng cng trnh thng mi
v dn dng.
Brazil dn u
T trng gi tr kt cu h tng trong xy dng, bnh qun 2007-2014f

F= d bo Ngun: Nghin cu ca BMI, Co quan Thng k quc gia

59

PHNG PHP LUN

Tiu ngnh kt cu h tng mi: Phng php lun
D liu kt cu h tng mi ca BMI kim tra ngnh ny c theo cch tip cn t
trn xung v t di ln tnh ton gi tr ca ngnh kt cu h tng v cc tiu ngnh
ca n.
i vi cch tip cn t di ln c th cho tng quc gia, chng ti khai thc
trit c s d liu cc d n kt cu h tng chnh cho mi quc gia, trong phn ln
cc trng hp bt u t nm 2005. iu ny cho php chng ti tnh ton t l
qu kh gi gi tr ngnh kt cu h tng ni chung v cc tiu ngnh ca n, v sau
gi tr ca cc tiu ngnh c s dng d bo. Bng cc d n chnh ca chng ti
cha tht s thu o, nhng chng tng qut cung cp s khi u vng chc
cho cc tnh ton ca chng ti.
Cch tip cn t trn xung s dng phng php din dch hnh thnh nn
cc gi thuyt chnh. Chng ti phn 35 quc gia ny thnh 3 cp bc nu trn. Mi
th bc bao gm mt nhm cc quc gia m c cng mt qu do pht trin kinh t v
c cng hnh thc ch tiu vo lnh vc kt cu h tng, trnh d pht trin kt cu h
tng v mc trng thnh ca mi lnh vc. Phng php lun ny to diu kin
d chng ti xc nhn v vut qua nhng thiu ht trong d liu c th v kt cu h
tng, thng qua p dng t l bnh qun cho mi nhm quc gia (uc tnh t cc quc
gia c s liu) p dng cho cc quc gia c s liu hn ch.

D bo kt cu h tng: Phng php lun

D bo ngnh ca BMI c tng qut ha s dng k thut m phng chui
thi gian tt nht v cc m hnh hi quy kinh t lng nhn qu. chnh xc
ca m hnh chng ti s dng thay i t ngnh ny sang ngnh khc, trong
mi trng hp c xc nh i vi mi thc t tiu chun thng qua cc c
tnh ph bin ca d liu ngnh c s dng. BMI s dng phng php c
lng bnh qun nh nht trnh quan im ch quan v khuyn khch vic s
dng cc quan im khch quan v s dng phng php t tng qut ti c th.
BMI ch yu s dng cc m hnh tuyn tnh, nhng cc m hnh ph tuyn n gin
chng hn nh m hnh tuyn tnh ha cng c s dng khi cn thit. Trong giai
on c nhng c sc ngnh, chng hn nh thi k suy thoi su, cc bin
danh nh s c s dng xc nh mc nh hng.
D bo hiu qu ph thuc vo la chn c m hnh hi quy thch hp. BMI
la chn m hnh tt nht cn c vo cc tiu ch v cc kim nh khc nhau, gm
60

nhng khng loi tr cc cn c sau:

R2 kim nh kh nng gii thch; R2 c iu chnh c tnh

ti bc t do.

Kim nh bin ng xu hng v ln ca cc h s

Kim nh gi thuyt m bo cc h s c mc ngha

(kim nh t hoc gi tr P)

Cng cn phi nhn mnh rng tc ng ca ch quan ng vai tr cn thit

v quan trng trong cc d bo ca BMI v cc ngnh. Kinh nghim, chuyn
mn v tr thc v d liu v xu hng vn ng ca cc ngnh m bo
rng nh phn tch a ra c cc cu trc, d liu bt thng, im ngot
v cc c trng theo ma m nu s dng phng php k thut thun ty
s khng lm c.
Trong ngnh kt cu h tng, vic can thip ch quan ny c th bao gm
nhng khng loi tr vic u t trong nhiu ngnh, hoc cc d n b hy;
mi trng u t chung v nhng thay i trong mi trng kinh doanh; cc
thay i trong xu hng vn ng ca th trng ni a cng nh th trng
vng, cc ch tiu kinh t v m; v cc thay i v mt quy nh.
Cc s liu d bo v gi tr ngnh xy dng v ngnh h tng ph thuc vo
quy m vn u t c nh qu kh v tng lai bi v k vng u t mnh ca
mi quc gia quyt nh tc tng trng ca ngnh xy dng. BMI s dng
cch tip cn t trn xung d bo kt cu h tng v cc tiu ngnh ca
n. Nhn chung, tc tng trng xy dng nhanh c ngha l s gia tng mnh
trong phn ln cc mng kt cu h tng.

Gi tr gia tng kt cu h tng v ngnh xy dng

S liu v gi tr gia tng ngnh xy dng v kt cu h tng trong GDP c cn
c vo (trong iu kin c th) ti khon quc gia c cng b vi cc c quan
thng k lin quan v ngn hng trung ng cng nh cc ngun s liu s cp t
cc b ngnh hoc cc s liu chnh thc. Lnh vc no thiu s liu th c lng
gi tr ngnh xy dng trong GDP cn c vo nhiu cc bin khc nhau gm:

Cc d n kt cu h tng c cng b v cc chng trnh pht trin;

Cc kh nng tng trng lin quan ti cc th hoc s pht trin ca

cc ngnh cng nghip;

Cc nhn t chnh tr (nh cc chng trnh cng trnh cng cng thc
61

y bu c)
Tc tng trng thc t ca kt cu h tng v ngnh xy dng trong tng GDP
c tnh ton s dng cc s bo kinh t v m ca BMI.

Vic lm trong ngnh xy dng.

Cc s liu ny c d bo cn c vo:

Tc tng trng hoc quy m tng vn c nh

Kt qu hot ng ca cc cng ty v cc k hoch m rng cng ty

V d v m hnh gi tr ngnh xy dng:

(gi tr ngnh xy dng) = 00 + 01*(Tng quy m vn u t c nh)t + Ft
V d v m hnh gi tr kt cu h tng:
(Gi tr ngnh KKHT)t = 00 + 01 *(gi tr ngnh xy dng)t + Ft
Ghi ch: Gi tr ca cc tiu ngnh kt cu h tng c d bo s dng m hnh
hi quy tng t.

Ngun
BMI s dng cc thng tin sn c bin son cc bo co quc gia v i
chiu cc s liu qu kh. Cc ngun c s dng trong bo co kt cu h
tng bao gm c cc thng k ca Lin hip quc; ti khon quc gia; kt cu
h tng, cng trnh cng cng, vn ti, nng lng v cc b ngnh; cc s liu
v kt qu hot ng ca cc cng ty c cng b chnh thc; cc t chc
thng mi, v cc c quan, hip hi thng tn quc gia, quc t.

D bo ngnh
D bo ngnh ca BMI uc tng qut ha s dng k thut m phng chui thi
gian ti u v cc m hnh hi quy kinh t lung nhn qu. chnh xc ca m hnh
chng ti s dng thay i t ngnh ny sang ngnh khc, trong mi trung hp uc xc
nh i vi mi tiu chun thc t thng qua cc c tnh ph bin ca d liu ngnh
uc s dng. BMI s dng phng php uc lung bnh qun nh nht trnh quan
im ch quan v khuyn khch vic s dng cc quan im khch quan v s dng
phng php tng qut ti c th. BMI ch yu s dng cc m hnh tuyn tnh, nhng
cc m hnh ph tuyn n gin chng hn nh m hnh tuyn tnh ha cng c s
dng khi cn thit. Trong giai on c nhng c sc ngnh, chng hn nh thi k suy
thoi su, cc bin gi (dummy) c s dng xc nh mc nh hng. Hiu qu
ca d bo ph thuc vo la chn m hnh hi quy thch hp. BMI la chn m hnh
62

tt nht cn c vo nhiu tiu ch v cc kim nh khc nhau, gm nhng khng ch cc

cn c sau:

R2 kim nh kh nng gii thch; R 2 iu chnh c tnh ti bc

Kim nh xu hung bin ng v gi tr cc h s;

t do;

Kim nh gi thuyt m bo cc h s c mc ngha

(kim dnh t hoc gi tr P);

Tt c cc kt qu c nh gi loi b cc vn lin quan

ti t tng quan v a cng tuyn.

BMI s dng cc m hnh d bo tt nht thc hin d bo.

Cng cn phi nhn mnh rng tc ng ca ch quan ng vai tr cn thit v
quan trng trong cc d bo ca BMI v cc ngnh. Kinh nghim, chuyn mn v tr
thc v d liu v xu hung vn ng ca cc ngnh m bo rng nh phn tch a
ra uc cc cu trc, d liu bt thung, im ngot v cc c trng theo ma
nhng ngnh m cch tip cn k thut thun ty khng th thc hin c. Trong
ngnh kt cu h tng, vic can thip ch quan ny c th bao gm nhng khng loi
tr vic u t trong nhiu ngnh, hoc cc d n b hy; mi trung u t chung v
nhng thay i trong mi trung kinh doanh; cc thay i trong xu hung vn ng ca
th trung ni a cng nh th trung vng, cc ch tiu kinh t v m; v cc thay i
v mt quy nh.
V d v m hnh gi tr ngnh xy dng:
(Gi tr ngnh xy dng)t = 0 + 1*(tng quy m vn u t c nh)t +
2*(ln pht)t + 3*(li sut)t + 4* (dn s)t + 5*(chi tiu chnh ph)t + 6*(gi tr
xy dng)t-1 + t

Ngnh xy dng
Mt lot cc cn c c bn c s dng trong cc d bo ca chng ti cho
mi bin ca ngnh xy dng v k thut:
GDP ngnh xy dng v chi tiu kt cu h tng
S liu v GDP ngnh xy dng v chi tiu c da vo (nu c th) ti khon
quc gia c cng b bi cc ngn hng trung ng, v cc ngun s cp t
cc b ngnh, chnh ph v cc d liu chnh thc.Vi cc ngnh thiu s liu,
d bo GDP ngnh xy dng cn c vo nhiu bin gm:

Cc d n kt cu h tng uc cng b v cc chng trnh pht trin;

63

Cc kh nng tng trung lin quan ti cc th hoc s pht trin cc

cc ngnh cng nghip;

Cc nhn t chnh tr (nh cc chng trnh cng trnh cng cng thc
y bu c)

Tc tng trung thc t ca kt cu h tng v ngnh xy dng trong tng

GDP uc tnh ton s dng cc s bo kinh t vi m ca BMI.
Vic lm trong ngnh xy dng. Cc s liu ny c d bo cn c
vo:

Tc tng trng hoc khng th l ngnh xy dng;

Kt qu hot dng ca cc cng ty v cc k hoch m rng cng ty.

Phng php x l s liu

Ngnh xy dng
Gi tr ngnh xy dng
D liu ca chng ti c trch sut t s liu u ra t c quan thng k ca
mi quc gia (hoc c quan tng ng). C th, n o lng sn lng ca
ngnh xy dng cho thi k bo co 12 thng theo n v danh ngha (theo ng
ni t). Do d liu c trch t GDP, n o lng gi tr gia tng ca ngnh
(v d s ng gp thm ca ngnh xy dng so vi cc ngnh khc, nh ngnh xi
mng). Kt qu l, n khng o lng gi tr danh ngha ca ton b u vo
c s dng trong ngnh xy dng gi tr m c th lm gia tng gi tr s liu
ln 50-60%. Hn na, mt iu rt quan trng l d liu khng a ra ch tiu
tng gi tr cc ta nh ca mi quc gia m ch a ra sn lng ca ca ngnh
xy dng trong mt nm nht nh.
D liu ny c s dng do hu ht cc quc gia u cng b s liu ny
v nh vy c th c s dng cho mc ch so snh. Tuy nhin, cn ch
rng nhng ni chng ti c th thu thp c s liu th chng c cng
b bi c quan thng k quc gia hoc cc hip hi i vi s liu cho ton
b lnh vc xy dng cng c tnh ti v do chng ti sut bn.
Tng trng
D liu v bo co ca chng ti v gi tr thc ca ngnh xy dng o lng s
gia tng sn lng thc t (thay v tng trng danh ngha, loi tng trng m
c th bao gm c lm pht). Tm li, y l gi tr lm pht c iu chnh ca
64

sn lng ngnh xy dng hng nm. Kt qu l, tng trng thc t - trong hu

nh ton b cc trng hp s thp hn tng trng danh ngha i vi cc ch
s gi tr ngnh xy dng ca chng ti.
Ngnh xy dng, % ca GDP/gi tr ngnh xy dng ( la)
y l cc ch tiu dn sut. Chng ti s dng d bo t gi hi oi v GDP
ca nhm nh gi ri ro quc gia ca BMI tnh ton cc ch tiu ny.
Vn u t
Tng vn u t
D liu ca chng ti duc trch sut t s liu GDP tnh theo phng php chi
tiu t mi c quan thng k ca mi quc gia (hoc tng ng). y l cch o
lng tng vn u t (tr cc ta nh c xy dng) trong thi k bo co 12
thng. Tng quy m vn o lng gi tr gia tng dng trong quy m vn u t ca
mt quc gia v vy n tnh ti khu hao v vn mi. Trong trng hp nh vy, vn
c cp di hnh thc vt kin trc, thit b v phng tin, v.v.. Nh vy, n
l mt nh ngha rng hn so vi nh ngha ngnh xy dng hoc kt cu h tng,
nhng BMI s dng n i din cho cam kt pht trin ca mi quc gia.
Vn u t ( la), t l % ca GDP, thu nhp bnh qun u ngi
y l cc ch tiu dn sut. Chng ti s dng d bo t gi hi oi v GDP ca
nhm nh gi ri ro quc gia ca BMI tnh ton cc ch tiu ny. n gin,
chng ti tin mt quy m thch hp ca ch tiu vn l mc 20%, nhng trong
cc th trng mi ni pht trin nhanh th c th t mc 30%.
Chi tiu u t chnh ph
S liu ny c ly t d liu ngn sch chnh ph v gm ton b cc chi tiu
phi hin ti (nh chi tiu cho cc khon chuyn nhng, lng cho cn b) Do tiu
chun ton cu v bo co chi tiu chnh ph cha c nn s liu ny khng mang
tnh so snh nh s liu v vn u t v xy dng.
Chi tiu vn ca chnh ph, la, % ca tng chi tiu.
y l cc ch tiu dn sut.
Vic lm trong ngnh xy dng
Tng vic lm trong ngnh xy dng
S liu ny c ngun gc t hoc l c quan thng k quc gia hay t T chc
lao ng quc t (ILO). S liu ny gm ton b lao ng c thu trong lnh
vc xy dng.
65

Vic lm ngnh xy dng, tng trng hng nm, t l % so vi tng lc

lng lao ng.
y l cc s liu dn sut.
Tin cng bnh qun trong ngnh xy dng
S liu ny gm ton b lao ng c thu trong lnh vc xy dng.

Xp hng mi trng kinh doanh kt cu h tng

Xp hng mi trng kinh doanh kt cu h tng ca BMI cung cp nh
gi da trn s liu v trin vng lnh vc kt cu h tng cho mi quc gia m
chng ti quan tm. Tip cn ca chng ti gm ba phn. Trc ht, ri ro c nh
gi c trn mc nguy him i vi cng ty hot ng trong lnh vc ny trn
phng din ton cu. Th hai, chng ti n lc, khi c th, xc nh cc ch tiu mc
tiu m c th ng vai tr nh l cc i din cho cc ch tiu m trc y c nh
gi trn c s ch quan. Cui cng, chng ti s dng xp hng ri ro quc gia c
quyn ca BMI (CRR). Ni chung, h thng xp hng nyc kt hp vi cc h thng
tng t ca tt c cc ngnh khc m BMI quan tm a ra mt ci nhn su sc v
cc ngnh dn u i vi trin vng v ri ro cho cc cng ty trn ton cu.
Tng quan v xp hng
V mt l thuyt, h thng xp hng c chia thnh hai lnh vc ring bit:
Gii hn ca vic hon vn tim nng
Mt nh gi quy m ngnh v tim nng tng trng ti mi quc gia cng nh cc
c tnh ngnh/ quc gia rng hn m c th tc ng ti pht trin.
Cc ri ro lin quan ti hon vn thc t
L mt nh gi v mc nguy him c th ca tng ngnh v cc ri ro bt
ngun t thc trng chnh tr/ kinh t ca mi quc gia, cc thc trng m c th
to ra cc cu hi v vic hon vn thc t trong mt thi k nh gi nht nh.
i vi mi ngnh v tiu ngnh, mi quc gia c nh gi trn thang im 100
(100 l tt nht) vi IBER (Xp hng mi trng kinh doanh h tng) - mt s
bnh qun gia quyn ca tng im. Mt iu rt quan trng, do phn ln cc
quc gia v vng lnh th c BMI nh gi l cc th trng mi ni, nn
IBER ca chng ti c iu chnh theo qu. iu ny m bo rng IBER cn
c vo nhng thng tin v d liu cp nht nht cho ton b cc ngun d liu ca
chng ti v thuc lnh vc chuyn mn ca cc nh phn tch.

66

Bng Xp hng mi trung kinh doanh kt cu h tng

Ch tiu
L do c bn
Gii hn v hon vn tim nng
Cu trc th trng
Chi tiu xy dng
Mc tiu o lng quy m ngn - ngnh cng ln th cng c nhiu c hi
US$bn
Sn c
Tng trng ngnh, bnh qun nm
Mc tiu lng tim tng trng tng trng nhanh lm gia tng c hi
Vn u t, % ca
GDP
i din cho mc m nn kinh t nh hng cho lnh vc c th no
Chi tiu chnh ph, % ca
i din cho mc c cu nn kinh t h tr cho KKHT
GDP
Lnh vc xy dng
Cu trc quc gia
T nh gi ri ro quc gia ca BMI (CRR) i din cho s sn c/ chi ph lao ng
Chi ph KKHT th trng lao ng cao/cht lng thp s cn tr hot ng ca cng ty
T CRR ca BMI i din cho mc d dng t c ti chnh cho u t Thiu ht ti
chnh cho KKHT
Ti chnh s cn tr s hot ng ca cc cng ty trn c nn kinh t
T CRR ca BMI Mc bao ph in nng thp i din cho s gii hn vic
tip cn vi in
Mc bao ph ca KKHT
Gii hn v hon vn tim nang
Ri ro th trng
Cc nh gi ch quan so vi cc cn c c xc nh trc ca BMI Ch tiu ny nh
gi mc kh khn i vi mt s cng ty tham gia th trng
Mc minh bch ca u thu
Cc dnh gi ch quan so vi cc can c c xc nh truc ca BMI Ch tiu ny nh gi mc
d on
Qu trnh
Ca mi trng hot ng
Ri ro quc gia
T CRR ca BMI i din cho sc mnh ca c cu kinh t, gm 7 ch tiu nh bin ng
ca tng trng, s ph thuc vo nhp khu hng ha, ph thuc vo c cu nn kinh t
Cc ngnh xut
khu
T CRR ca BMI i din cho mc tn thng i vi cc c sc bn ngoi nguyn
nhn cn bn ca ri ro kinh t bn ngoiKhng hong
Xp hng ch quan ca BMI v CRR i din cho mc d on c ca chnh
sch trong chui chnh sch.
Chnh ph
T CRR ca BMI i din cho sc mng ca th ch lut php trong mi quc gia mc
an ton ca h thng php l u t c th l mt ri ro cn bn tai mt s th trng mi ni
tham nhng
Ngun BMI

Theo nh gi ca BMI v CRR i in ri ro ca cc chi ph phi php pht sinh do

Hot ng u thu v kinh doanh nh hng ti kh nng cnh tranh ca cng ty.

67

Xp hng ti chnh d n
Xp hng ti chnh d n ca BMI a ra cc so snh ton cu, cc nh
gi ri ro da trn s liu s p dng cho cc d n h tng trong lnh vc nng
lng, vn ti, v xy dng thng mi.N nh gi mc bt nh m cc d n
c c trng sau thng gp phi: Thi gian xy dng di; chi ph xy dng cao; kh
khn trong chuyn i cc ti sn c nh ca d n (trm nng lng) sang cc mc
ch s dng khc; li nhun ch c c sau khi d n hon thnh. nh gi ti
chnh d n cn c vo chuyn mn phn tch su ca BMI. Phng php lun ny gm
h thng nh gi ri ro quc gia hng u ca chng ti, da trn 25 nm kinh nghim
chuyn mn trong nh gi ri ro chnh tr, kinh t v thc t kinh doanh cng nh kin
thc chuyn su ca chng ti v ngnh kt cu h tng ton cu.
Trong khi chng ti tin rng im s cui cng l ch dn ng tin cy cho ri ro
ti chnh d n, nhng cng nhn mnh rng xp hng ti chnh d n ng gi ri ro
ton ngnh ch khng phi cho tng d n. iu ny c mt vi hm . Th nht, s
khng c nhng trng hp m thng tin ri ro, v d nh vic cung cp u vo, ca
cc d n c th c nh gi khc so vi cc ri ro chung ca ngnh. Th hai, xp
hng ti chnh d n tnh ti cc gii php ca cc d n t khu vc t gim thiu
ri ro khi c cu ti chnh - v d nh, qua m bo vic ng gp vn ch s hu
ln t cc c quan ti tr hoc chnh ph. Xp hng ti chnh d n c s dng
nh gi mc ri ro su rng m cc d n kt cu h tng gp phi, cc ri ro m
ngc li s nh hng ti ngun, s sn c v chi ph ti chnh. Nh vy, trong mt
mi trng ti chnh ton cu hn ch cho nhng d n nh vy, n s cung cp cc ch
tiu quan trng cho chi ph ti chnh ca cc d n ln v tc pht trin ca kt cu h
tng ti mi quc gia.
Tng quan v xp hng
phn nh vng i ca cc d n kt cu h tng, xp hng ti chnh d n
c phn chia thnh hai tiu xp hng.
Ri ro thit k v xy dng
N nh gi ri ro tng qut da trn cc d bo chi ph xy dng c bn c gi
nh. Mt cch c th, n nh gi mc bt nh trong mi trng chnh tr, kinh t v
quy nh cng nh mc bin ng ca chi ph u vo.
Ri ro vn hnh thuc tng ngnh
Phn ny nh gi ri ro trong d on doanh thu trong thi k hot ng ca
d n. N nh gi nhng bt nh lin quan ti cung cp v chi ph u vo, doanh
68

thu sn lng u ra, gm c mi trng php l, th trng v chnh tr.

Cc yu t xp hng
Xp hng s dng 10 ch tiu c o lng mt cch ch quan v khong 40 b
d liu. Trng s cho mi ch tiu v nhm cc ch tiu (ri ro u vo, quy nh v th
trng) phn nh tm quan trng tng i ca chng, v mc ri ro lin quan, cc
ri ro tc ng vo cc nh ti tr v cc ngi ch s hu. nh hng tng i ca
mi ch tiu v nhm xp hng cho im s cui cng c trnh by di y. im s
gn vi cc tiu u mc ca tng phn ch ra trong s ca phn trong xp hng cui
cng v im s gn vi mi ch tiu th trnh by tc ng ca ch tiu trong phn
.

69

Bng Ri ro thit k v xy dng

Ch tiu
u vo
Ni a
Lm pht
Quc t:
Tin t bnh qun thng
Bin ng tin t
Mi trng chnh tr

nh hng th trng

nh ngha
Lm pht tiu dng bnh qun 2002-2009,
c iu chnh theo lch chun
lch tiu chun ca bin ng
Ca 12 thng d liu, cng vi
lch tiu chun ca

Trng s cn bn
20% (mi phn)
Lm pht cao v bt n to gia tng ri ro
i vi d on chi ph u vo
60%
Bin ng tin t gia tng ri ro i vi
D on chi ph bnh qun hng nhp khu
40%
25% (mi phn)

o lng mc can thip ca chnh ph vo

nn kinh t, s dng d liu chi tiu chnh ph
v doanh thu t cc doanh nghip nh nc; Chnh ph vi nhng cam kt mnh m
mc thu xut bnh quan, quy m thu, cc thsdfsfasdfasdfasdffsfsdfsfs
tc thng mi v lch s thu ht FDI.
dxfgsdfg
Chnh sch u t v thng mi

Ri r an ninh

o lng mc e da v an ninh
(ni b v quc t) m mt quc gia phi i
mt
asdfasdfasd
Chnh sch chnh ph thng nht trong
dfg

dfgfd
dfg

Ri ro an ninh cng cao thi ri ro trong cc

ti sn h tng cng ln
i vi an ninh h tng c th (bi v chng thng
tr thnh cc mc tiu tn cng) v ph bo him,
ci m s tng cng vi mc ri ro an ninh v s
lm tng chi ph ca nh ti tr 20%.
S lin tc chnh sch gia cc nhm giu
fgfd
fdgsfd
Mi trng kinh doanh
20%

nh gi h thng
Chnh ph dn ch ca BMI vi
Chnh ph v th ch chnh sch
dfgsdgsdgsd
fdg
sdfgdsa
Evaluation of breadth and depth of
governments ability to protect Strong rule of law reduces direct threats
individuals and property
to assets during construction

c tnh mnh m ca
zdfg
Rule of law
Legal/regulatory risks

Subjective measure of level of

corruption

Corruption
Contract
enforceability
Economic/financial risks

World Bank Index of cost, procedures

and time taken to recover a bad debt
BMIs long-term economic rating, which
incorporates 20 indicators to assess
risk of an economic crisis

Domestic:
economic stability
International:
availability of

US and eurozone average interest rates,

adjusted for Chicago BOE VIX

Business Monitor International Ltd

Vietnam Infrastructure Report Q2 2010

20%

20%
20%

20% (segment)
Transparency is essential to planning of
predictable input delivery and cost and
the predictability of officials decisions
50%
Confidence in the legally binding nature
of contracts is essential to minimise
domestic counterparty risk
50%
35% (segment)
Economic stability reduces risks to
project activity (e.g. due to financial
problems at suppliers)
30%
Project finance is mainly raised
internationally. Price and availability

70%

Page 80

Table: Design And Construction Phase

Indicator
finance
rates
and
proxy).
specific, indicator

Definition
index
risk

investor
A

global,

Rationale Weighting
depend on US and eurozone interest
appetite
(VIX
is
a
rather
than
country-

Source: BMI
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase Commercial Construction

Indicator

Definition

Rationale Weighting

70

Inputs
Domestic:
inflation
Domestic: power,
imports as % of
consumption
International:
long-term
currency volatility
Sale of outputs
Regulatory
Supply risk
Price risk

Average consumer inflation 2002-2009,

adjusted for standard deviation
As stated. Power is used as proxy for
all utilities
Standard deviation of monthly moving
average of past 12 months of data, plus
standard deviation of moving average
BMIs subjective view of transparency
of government planning policy
BMIs subjective view of transparency
of government policy regarding price of
service related to asset

30% (segment)
High and uncertain inflation raises risks
to input cost projections
30%
Supply of utilities is essential to
functioning of asset and revenue
generation
25%
Currency volatility increases risks to
cost projections of imported goods

45%

20% (segment)
Clarity regarding future market supply
essential to forecast demand for asset
20%
Clarity over policy/regulations covering
price are essential to projecting income

20%

Confidence in legally binding nature of

Contract
World Bank Index of cost, procedures
contracts is essential for minimising
enforceability
and time taken to recover a bad debt
domestic counterparty risk
60%
Market risks
30% (segment)
Economic stability
BMIs
long-term
economic
rating,
which
incorporates
20
indicators
to
assess
risk of economic crisis
An economic crisis would cut projected demand, potentially greatly
Standard
deviation
of
monthly
moving
average
of
the
past
12
months
of
data,
plus
standard
deviation
of
moving
average
Sharp currency movements introduces risks to value of income in international
currency
50%
Long-term currency stability
Market orientation
Measure of government intervention in
economy, using data for government
expenditure and revenue from state-owned enterprises; average trade tariff
rates; tax levels; trade bureaucracy;
Governments with strong commitment to free markets unlikely to make sudden
changes to investment/trade regime
10%

71

Ri ro chnh tr 20%
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase Commercial Construction

Indicator

Security risk

Policy continuity

Rule of law
Source: BMI

Definition
and history of FDI inflows

Rationale Weighting

The higher the security risk, the higher the

risks to infrastructure assets in
terms of physical security (as they tend to become
targets) and insurance premiums, which rise with
security risks, increasing costs to sponsors
Measure of the security threat (external and
40%
internal) facing a country
Strong policy continuity between elites
(within
or
across
parties)
minimises
BMIs evaluation of level of policy
risksthatnewlegislationwillalterthe
consistency over past decade
business environment
10%
Evaluation of breadth and depth of
governments ability to protect Strong rule of law reduces direct threats
individuals and property
to assets

40%

Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase Energy And Utilities

Indicator
Inputs*
Inflation

Crude price costs

Long-term
currency volatility

Definition
Average inflation, 2002-2009, and its
standard deviation
BMIs Brent
five
years,
deviation of
years

Crude forecasts for next Gas and other fuel prices correlate
adjusted
for
standard
closely with oil. Price stability is
prices over past three
desirable, as are anticipated future
trends. This is a global, rather than
country-specific, risk

Standard deviation of monthly moving

average of the past 12 months of data,
plus standard deviation of moving
average

Sale of outputs
Regulatory
Demand risk
Price risk
Contract
enforceability

Rationale Weighting
30% (segment)
Volatile inflation risks unanticipated cost
increases that may be impossible to
pass on to asset users
30%

BMIs subjective view of government

energy policies and implications for
industry demand
BMIs subjective view of transparency
of government policy regarding power
prices

WorldBankIndexofcost,proceduresandtimetakentorecoverabaddebt

Currency volatility increases risks to

cost projections of imported goods or
goods bought in US dollars (i.e. fuel
feedstock)

25%

45%

20% (segment)
Transparency regarding government
energy policies is essential for
evaluating demand
20%
Clarity over policy/regulations covering
price essential to projecting income

20%

Confidenceinlegallybindingnatureofcontractsisessentialtominimising

60%

Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase Energy And Utilities

Indicator
Market risks
Economic stability
Long-term
currency stability
Political risks

Definition

Rationale Weighting
domestic counterparty risk
30% (segment)

BMIs long-term economic rating, which

incorporates 20 indicators to assess An economic crisis would cut projected
risk of economic crisis
demand, potentially greatly
Standard deviation of monthly moving
average of the past 12 months of data,
Sharp currency movements introduces
plus standard deviation of moving
risks to value of income in international
average
currency

50%

50%

20% (segment)

72

Market orientation

Security risk

Policy continuity

Measure of government intervention in

economy, using data for government
expenditure and revenue from state-Governments with strong commitment
owned enterprises; average trade tariff
to free markets internally and
rates; tax levels; trade bureaucracy; internationally unlikely to make sudden
and history of FDI inflows
changes to investment/trade regime

Measure of the security threat (external and

internal) facing a country
BMIs evaluation of level of broad
governmental policy consistency over
past decade

10%

The higher the security risk, the higher the

risks to infrastructure assets in
terms of physical security (as they tend to become
targets) and insurance premiums, which rise with
security risks, increasing costs to sponsors
40%
Strong policy continuity between elites
(within or across parties) minimises
risks that new legislation will alter the
business environment
10%

Evaluation of breadth and depth of

governments ability to protect Strong rule of law reduces direct threats
Rule of law
individuals and property
to assets
40%
* No distinction between internal and domestic risks. This reflects BMIs view that all projects would have fuel feedstock
contracts in place prior to construction. Source: BMI
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase Transport

Indicator
Inputs
Domestic:
inflation
moving International:
long-term
currency Volatility
Sale of outputs

Definition
Average inflation, 2002-2009, and its
standard deviation
Standard deviation of monthly
average of the past 12 months of data,
plus standard deviation of moving
average

Rationale Weighting
30% (segment)
Volatile inflation risks unanticipated cost
increases that may be impossible to
pass on to asset users
40%

Currency volatility increases risks to

cost projections of imported goods

60%

Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase Transport

Indicator
Regulatory
Demand risk

Price risk
Contract
enforcibility

Definition
BMIs subjective view of government
regulation and its record in supporting
substitutes etc
BMIs subjective view of transparency
of government policy regarding price of
service related to asset
World Bank Index of cost, procedures
and time taken to recover a bad debt

Rationale Weighting
20% (segment)
Transparency regarding government
policy essential for evaluating demand
Clarity over policy/regulations covering
price essential to projecting income
Confidence in legally binding nature of
contracts essential to minimising
domestic counterparty risk

Market risks
Economic stability

Long-term
currency stability
Political risks

Market orientation

20%

20%
60%

30% (segment)
BMIs long-term economic rating, which
incorporates 20 indicators to assess An economic crisis would cut projected
risk of economic crisis
demand, potentially greatly
Standard deviation of monthly moving
average of the past 12 months of data,
plus standard deviation of moving
average

50%

Sharp currency movements introduces

risks to value of income in international
currency
50%
20% (segment)

Measure of government intervention in

economy, using data for government
expenditure and revenue from state- Governments with strong commitment to
owned enterprises; average trade tariff free markets are likely to refrain from
rates; tax levels; trade bureaucracy; sudden changes to the
and history of FDI inflows
investment/trade regime

10%

73

Security risk

Measure of the security threat (external and

internal) facing a country

BMIs evaluation of level of broad

governmental policy consistency over
Policy continuity
past decade
Evaluation of breadth and depth of
governments ability to protect Strong rule of law reduces direct threats
Rule of law
individuals and property

The higher the security risk, the higher the

risks to infrastructure assets in
terms of physical security (as they tend to become
targets) and insurance premiums, which rise with
security risks, increasing costs to sponsors
40%
Strong policy continuity between elites
(within or across parties) minimises
risks that new legislation will alter the
business environment
10%
to assets

40%

Source: BMI

Sources
BMI uses publicly available information to compile the country reports and collate historical
data. Sources used in Infrastructure reports include UN statistics; national accounts;
infrastructure, public works, transport, energy and economy ministries; officially released company
results and figures; trade bodies and associations and international and national news agencies.

Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without
permission.

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