Chng 7: Quy hoch

ngun vn v la chn
tp d n u t (phn 2)

Nguyn Hi Ngn H
nhnha@sim.hcmut.edu.vn

B mn Ti Chnh Khoa Qun l Cng nghip

i hc Bch Khoa - TPHCM

Ni dung

1. Ngun vn
2. Chi ph s dng vn

3. Sut sinh li ti thiu chp nhn c

4. La chn tp d n u t

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. Chi ph s dng vn
Cost of Capital (WACC)
Chi ph s dng vn: l
bnh qun chi ph s dng
vn CSH v vn vay n
Cost of Equity (ie) Chi
ph s dng vn ch s
hu: l chi ph c hi ca
vic s dng vn CSH.
Cost of Debt (id) Chi ph
s dng n : l chi ph
phi tr cho ch n.

Cost of Debt

Cost of Equity

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. Chi ph s dng vn

Chi ph s dng vn - Cost of Capital

id Cd ie Ce
k

WACC
=
V
V
WACC (weighted average cost of capital): chi ph
s dng vn bnh qun
Cd, Ce : tng n , tng vn ch s hu
V: tng ngun vn ( = Cd + Ce )
id: chi ph sd n sau thu
ie :chi ph sd vn ch s hu
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. Chi ph s dng vn

Chi ph s dng vn - Cost of Capital

Chng ta quan tm n chi ph s dng vn

trc thu hay sau thu ?
Khi thm nh d n, ta quan tm n dng tin
sau thu (CFAT) => ta ch quan tm n chi ph
s dng vn sau thu.
Ch c chi ph s dng n l cn iu chnh
sang chi ph sau thu, bi v li vay c xem
nh mt khon chi ph c khu tr thu.
5

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng n - Cost of Debt
i d=

Cs: n vay t t chc ti chnh

Cb: n vay t tri phiu
Cd: tng s n ( = Cb + Cs)
ks: li sut trc thu ca n vay t t chc ti
chnh (ls thc)
kb: li sut trc thu ca tri phiu (ls thc)
t: thu sut
6

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng n - Cost of Debt
Tnh ks: ls trc thu ca n vay t TCTC (ls thc)

ks = (1 + r/m1)m2 - 1
VD: Cty Vit Tin vay n t ngn hng 1 t ng, li
sut 20%/nm, ghp li theo qu. Nu thu sut TNDN
l 25% th li sut trc thu & sau thu m DN thc
tr cho khon n ny l bao nhiu?
Gii:
ks trc thu = [( 1 + 20%/4)4 1] = 21%
ks sau thu = 21% x (1- 25%) = 16%
7

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng n - Cost of Debt
Tnh kb : ls trc thu ca tri phiu (ls thc)
VD: Cty Vit Tin pht hnh 1000 tri phiu,
mi tri phiu gi 1 tr. Li tc hng nm l
80.000 (8%/nm), thi k o hn l 10 nm.
Gi s gi bn tri phiu Po ti thi im pht
hnh l 1,2 tr.
a/ Tm li sut thc ca tri phiu trc thu.
b/Tm li sut thc ca tri phiu sau thu, nu
thu TNDN l 25%
8

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng n - Cost of Debt
Tnh kb : ls trc thu ca tri phiu (ls thc)

Gii:
a/ 1,2 = 0,08 x (P/A, kb, 10) + 1 x (P/F, kb, 10)
Dng pp ni suy ra kb = 5%
b/ kb sau thu = kb x ( 1- 25%) = 4%

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng n - Cost of Debt
Tnh kb : ls trc thu ca tri phiu (ls thc)

Po (1-fc) = INT * (P/A, kb, n) + M * (P/F, kb, n)

Po : Gi bn tri phiu
fc: chi ph pht hnh tri phiu (%)
INT: li tc = li sut x mnh gi
M : mnh gi
n : k hn ca tri phiu
10

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n -

2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity

1. Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng

- Cost of Common Stock(kc)
2. Chi ph s dng vn c phn u i
- Cost of Preferred Stock (kp)
3. Chi ph s dng li nhun gi li
- Cost of Retained Earnings (kr)
=> Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of equity:
bnh qun ca 3 chi ph kr kc, v kp
11

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
nh gi c phiu thng
1. Khng tng trng
DIV1 DIV2 DIV3 ...

2. Tng trng (tc g)

DIV1 , DIV1 (1 g), DIV1 (1 g)2 , ...

DIV1 DIV1
P0

...
2
1 r 1 r

DIV1 DIV1 (1 g)
P0

...
2
1r
1 r

DIV1
P0
r

DIV1
P0
rg

r l sut sinh li yu cu ca c ng. i vi DN, sut

sinh li c ng yu cu chnh l chi ph m DN phi
tr khi sd vn ca c ng => r = kc
12

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Chi ph s dng vn CP thng - Cost of common stock
(Gi nh c tc tng trng u hng nm vi tc g
v nh u t khng u c)

kc =
DIV1: c tc c phn thng nm th 1
Po: gi bn c phiu thng nm 0
f c : chi ph pht hnh c phiu thng (%)
g: tc pht trin ( = b*R)
+ b =t l ln gi li ti u t (=(EPSo DIVo)/ EPSo)
+ R=sut sinh li ti u t
13

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng
-Cost of common stock
- Trong TH c tc khng u, th ta c
cng thc tng qut sau:

Po =
c

14

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng - Cost of common stock
VD: Cng ty IBM ang c 1 triu c phiu ang lu
hnh. Cng ty va bo co li nhun sau thu cn li
cho c ng nm nay l $2 triu, v d kin gi li 40%
ln ti u t vo nm sau. Sut sinh li ti u t ca
cng ty trc y l 16% v d kin s tng trong tng
lai. IBM pht hnh c phiu thng mi v bn vi gi
$10. Tnh chi ph s dng vn c phn ca cng ty?

15

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng - Cost of common stock
Gii:
Tc pht trin g = 0.4 x 0.16 = 6.4%
Thu nhp vo nm sau = 2.000.000 x (1+6.4%) = 2.128.000
C tc vo nm sau = 2.128.000 x ( 1 0.4) = 1.276.800
C tc trn mt c phiu vo nm sau = 1.276.800 /
1.000.000 = 1.28
Chi ph s dng vn c phn = 1.28/10 + 6.4% = 19.2%

16

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng (phn ny khng thi)
M hnh tng trng ca Gordon Shapiro (The
Gordon Shapiro Growth Model)

kec
R

DV0 EPS 0 DV0

P0
BV0

BVo l gi bt tan ca
mt c phn ti nm 0

M hnh tng trng ca Solomon (The Solomon

Grown Model)
DV0 EPS 0 DV0
Rkec

P0
P0
17

Po l gi th trng ca
mt c phn ti nm 0
Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng
VD: Li nhun trn mt cp sau thu (EPS) ca cty Vit
Tin l 3400/cp thng, gi bn cp l 36.000/cp. Li
c phn (c tc) c chia hin nay l 1670/cp. T l li
nhun gi li ti u t (b) d kin s khng thay i
trong tng lai. Gi BVO hin nay l 19.500 /cp.
=> Tnh chi ph s dng vn c phn thng (sau thu)
ca cty theo 2 m hnh Gordon- Shapiro v Solomon.

18

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng
Li gii
Theo m hnh Gordon Shapiro:
R
kec

DV0 EPS 0 DV0

1.670 3.400 1.670

0,1351hay13,5%
P0
BV0
36.000
19.500

Theo m hnh Solomon:

kRce DV0 EPS 0 DV0 1.670 3.400 1.670 0,0945hay9,45%
P0

P0

36.000

36.000

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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Chi ph s dng vn c phn u i
- Cost of preferred stock

kp=
DIV*: c tc c phn u i
Po: gi bn c phiu u i
f c: chi ph pht hnh c phiu u i (%)
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Chi ph s dng vn c phn u i
- Cost of preferred stock
VD: Cty IBM pht hnh c phiu u i vi gi
$100/cp v tr c tc u hng nm l $10.5. Nu chi
ph pht hnh l $4/cp, chi ph s dng vn c phn u
i l bao nhiu?
Gii: Kp = 10.5 / (100 4) = 10.94%

21

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Chi ph s dng li nhun gi li
- Cost of retained earning
Ti sao c chi ph s dng li nhun gi li?
Li nhun c th c gi li ti u t hoc chia
c tc cho c ng.
Nu Cty tr c tc thp th nh u t c th mua c
phiu ca cng ty khc hng c tc cao hn
=> Nu gi li ln ti u t, cty phi chu chi ph c
hi bng thu nhp m nh u t mong i t c
khi u t vo mt CP khc c cng ri ro.
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Chi ph s dng li nhun gi li
- Cost of retained earning

kr=
Trong , DIV1: c tc CP thng, Po: gi bn CP
thng, g: tc tng trng
Chi ph ln gi li = chi ph sd vn c phn thng nu
chi ph pht hnh bng 0. Nu ht ngun li nhun gi
li th cty mi pht hnh c phiu mi (trnh ke cao)
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. Chi ph s dng vn
Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity
Cost of Retained Earnings

kr=

Cost of Equity

ie (cr / ce ) kr (cc / ce ) kec

(c p / ce ) k p

Cost of Common Stock

kc =

Cr = vn t ngun li nhun gi li,

Cost of Preferred Stock Cc = vn t pht hnh CP thng mi
Cp = vn t pht hnh CP u i
Ce = vn CSH ( = Cr + Cc + Cp)

kp=

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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

2. Chi ph s dng vn

Chi ph s dng vn v cu trc vn

25

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

3. Sut sinh li ti thiu chp nhn c

MARR l sut chit khu i tnh PW ca d n.
MARR l tiu chun so snh vi IRR ca d n
Lm sao tnh c MARR ???
=> Cch n gin nht l MARR = WACC. Tuy nhin,
mi d n c th c cch c lng MARR ring do
cc yu t c th sau:
- ri ro ca d n
- Vng d n
- C cu thu
- Cc phng php huy ng vn
- Gi tr MARR ca cc cng ty khc
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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

4. La chn tp d n u t

Cc d n c lp: C th chn nhiu hn 1 DA trong tp

cc DA c lp, tu theo ngun ngn sch ca DN.
Khi c m c hi u t s c 2m - 1 tp d n.
Cc bc chn la tp d n:
1. Xc nh s tp d n
2. Sp xp cc tp d n tng dn theo vn u t.
3. Xc nh dng tin t cho tng tp d n
4. Tnh PW cho tng tp d n
5. Chn tp d n da vo ngun ngn sch B xc nh.

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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

4. La chn tp d n u t
Xt cc DA c lp A,B,C sau v la chn tp d n
u t c li nht nu MARR = 15%. Ngun ngn sch
ca cng ty cho vic u t d n l B = 27.000 tr.
PA

Li tc rng

N (nm)

-12.000

+4.281

-10.000

+4.184

-17.000

+5.802

10

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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

4. La chn tp d n u t
TT
1
2

Tp DA
B
A

P
-10.000
-12.000

PW
4.025
2.350

3
4

C
AB

-17.000
-22.000

12.120
6.375

Nhn xt

BC

-27.000

16.145

Chn tp BC v ngn
sch l 27.000

AC

-29.000

14.470

Loi ngay v vt NS

ABC

-39.000

18.495

Loi ngay v vt NS

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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n

BI TP

Lm bi
7.3, 7.4, 7.5, 7.6, 7.8, 7.9, 7.10, 7.11, 7.13,
7.14, 7.17, 7.18, 7.20, 7.21

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Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n