Professional Documents
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Project Estimation
Project Estimation
scheduling
Outline:
Estimation overview
Cocomo: concepts, process and tool.
Detailed schedule/planning terminology and processes
Planning Tools (MS Project)
Estimation
The single most important task of a
project: setting realistic expectations.
Unrealistic expectations based on
inaccurate estimates are the single largest
cause of software failure.
Futrell, Shafer and Shafer, Quality Software Project Management
The Problems
Nature of Estimates
Man Months (or Person Months), defined as 152
man-hours of direct-charged labor
Schedule in months (requirements complete to
acceptance)
Well-managed program
4 Common (subjective)
estimation models
Expert Judgment
Analogy
Parkinsons law
Price to win
Expert judgment
One or more experts in both software
development and the application domain use their
experience to predict software costs. Process
iterates until some consensus is reached.
Advantages: Relatively cheap estimation method.
Can be accurate if experts have direct experience
of similar systems
Disadvantages: Very inaccurate if there are no
experts!
Estimation by analogy
The cost of a project is computed by comparing
the project to a similar project in the same
application domain
Advantages: May be accurate if project data
available and people/tools the same
Disadvantages: Impossible if no comparable
project has been tackled. Needs systematically
maintained cost database
Parkinson's Law
The project costs whatever resources are
available
Advantages: No overspend
Disadvantages: System is usually unfinished
Bottom-up
Start at the component level and estimate the effort
required for each component. Add these efforts to
reach a final estimate.
Top-down estimation
Usable without knowledge of the system
architecture and the components that might be
part of the system.
Takes into account costs such as integration,
configuration management and documentation.
Can underestimate the cost of solving difficult
low-level technical problems.
Bottom-up estimation
Usable when the architecture of the system is
known and components identified.
This can be an accurate method if the system has
been designed in detail.
It may underestimate the costs of system level
activities such as integration and documentation.
Estimation methods
Each method has strengths and weaknesses.
Estimation should be based on several methods.
If these do not return approximately the same
result, then you have insufficient information
available to make an estimate.
Some action should be taken to find out more in
order to make more accurate estimates.
Pricing to win is sometimes the only applicable
method.
Pricing to win
This approach may seem unethical and unbusinesslike.
However, when detailed information is lacking it
may be the only appropriate strategy.
The project cost is agreed on the basis of an
outline proposal and the development is
constrained by that cost.
A detailed specification may be negotiated or an
evolutionary approach used for system
development.
Software productivity
A measure of the rate at which individual
engineers involved in software development
produce software and associated
documentation.
Not quality-oriented although quality assurance is
a factor in productivity assessment.
Essentially, we want to measure useful
functionality produced per time unit.
Productivity measures
Size related measures based on some output from
the software process. This may be lines of
delivered source code, object code instructions,
etc.
Function-related measures based on an estimate
of the functionality of the delivered software.
Function-points are the best known of this type of
measure.
Measurement problems
Estimating the size of the measure (e.g. how many
function points).
Estimating the total number of programmer
months that have elapsed.
Estimating contractor productivity (e.g.
documentation team) and incorporating this
estimate in overall estimate.
Lines of code
What's a line of code?
Productivity comparisons
The lower level the language, the more
productive the programmer
The same functionality takes more code to
implement in a lower-level language than in a highlevel language.
COCOMO
COCOMO (CONSTRUCTIVE COST MODEL)
-First published by Dr. Barry Boehm, 1981
Interactive cost estimation software package that
models the cost, effort and schedule for a new
software development activity.
Can be used on new systems or upgrades
Productivity Levels
Tends to be constant for a given programming
shop developing a specific product.
~100 SLOC/MM for life-critical code
~320 SLOC/MM for US Government quality
code
~1000 SLOC/MM for commercial code
2000
SLOC
8000
SLOC
32000
SLOC
128000
SLOC
MM
21
91
392
Schedule 5
Months
14
24
Staff
1.1
2.7
6.5
16
SLOC/
MM
400
376
352
327
Input Data
Delivered K source lines of code(KSLOC)
Various scale factors:
Experience
Process maturity
Required reliability
Complexity
Developmental constraints
COCOMO
Uses Basic Effort Equation
Effort=A(size)exponent
Effort=EAF*A(size)exponent
Estimate man-months (MM) of effort to complete S/W project
1 MM = 152 hours of development
Size estimation defined in terms of Source lines of code delivered in the
final product
15 cost drivers (personal, computer, and project attributes)
COCOMO Modes
Organic Mode
Developed in familiar, stable environment
Product similar to previously developed product
<50,000 DSIs (ex: accounting system)
Semidetached Mode
somewhere between Organic and Embedded
Embedded Mode
new product requiring a great deal of innovation
inflexible constraints and interface requirements
(ex: real-time systems)
COCOMO Models
Basic Model
Used for early rough, estimates of project cost, performance,
and schedule
Accuracy: within a factor of 2 of actuals 60% of time
Intermediate Model
Uses Effort Adjustment Factor (EAF) fm 15 cost drivers
Doesnt account for 10 - 20 % of cost (trng, maint, TAD, etc)
Accuracy: within 20% of actuals 68% of time
Detailed Model
Uses different Effort Multipliers for each phase of project
(everybody uses intermediate model)
Basic Model
Effort Equation (COCOMO 81)
Effort=A(size)exponent
A is a constant based on the developmental mode
organic = 2.4
semi = 3.0
embedded = 3.6
Basic Model
Schedule Equation (COCOMO 81)
MTDEV (Minimum time to develop) =
2.5*(Effort)exponent
2.5 is constant for all modes
Exponent based on mode
organic = 0.38
semi = 0.35
embedded = 0.32
Counting
KSLOC
Intermediate COCOMO
Takes basic COCOMO as starting point
Identifies personnel, product, computer and
project attributes which affect cost and
development time.
Multiplies basic cost by attribute multipliers
which may increase or decrease costs
Attributes
Personnel attributes
Analyst capability
Virtual machine experience
Programmer capability
Programming language experience
Application experience
Product attributes
Reliability requirement
Database size
Product complexity
More Attributes
Computer attributes
Execution time constraints
Storage constraints
Virtual machine volatility
Computer turnaround time
Project attributes
Modern programming practices
Software tools
Required development schedule
Intermediate Model
Effort Equation (COCOMO 81)
Effort=EAF*A(size)exponent
EAF (effort adjustment factor) is the product of effort
multipliers corresponding to each cost driver rating
A is a constant based on the developmental mode
organic = 3.2
semi = 3.0
embedded = 2.8
RELY
DATA
CPLX
RUSE
DOCU
TIME
STOR
PVOL
ACAP
Reliability
Database Size
Complexity
Required Reusability
Documentation
Execution Time Constant
Main Storage Constraint
Platform Volatility
Analyst Capability
PCAP
AEXP
PEXP
LTEX
PCON
TOOL
SITE
SCED
Programmer Capability
Applications Experience
Platform Experience
Language and Tool Experience
Personnel Continuity
Use of Software Tools
Multisite Development
Required Schedule
Example COCOMO
TURN and TOOL Adjustments
COCOMO 81 Rating
VH
COCOMO Multiplier:
CPLX
1.00
1.15
1.23
1.3
1.24
1.10
1.00
COCOM Multiplier:
TOOL
TOOL = 1.15
Total cost = 45 * 1.24 * 1.15 * $7000 = $449, 190
Tool Demonstration
(web based version)
http://sunset.usc.edu/research/COCOMOII/expert_cocomo/expert_cocomo2000.html
http://sunset.usc.edu/research/COCOMOII/expert_cocomo/expert_cocomo2000.html
Its Free and easy to use. So Use it!
You can also get a standalone win32 version
COCOTS - The USC Center is actively conducting research in the area of off-the-shelf
software integration cost modelling. Our new cost model COCOTS (COnstructive COTS),
focuses on estimating the cost, effort, and schedule associated with using commercial off-theshelf (COTS) components in a software development project. Though still experimental,
COCOTS is a model complementary to COCOMO II, capturing costs that traditionally have
been outside the scope of COCOMO. Ideally, once fully formulated and validated, COCOTS
will be used in concert with COCOMO to provide a complete software development cost
estimation solution.
Resources
Software Cost Estimating With COCOMO II Boehm,
Abts, Brown, Chulani, Clark, Horowitz, Madachy, Reifer, Steece ISBN:013-026692-2
COCOMO II - http://sunset.usc.edu/research/COCOMOII/
NASA Cost Estimating Web Site http://www1.jsc.nasa.gov/bu2/COCOMO.html
Conclusions
Experience shows that seat-of-the-pants estimates of cost
and schedule are 50%- 75% of the actual time/cost. This
amount of error is enough to get a manager fired in many
companies.
Lack of hands-on experience is associated with massive
cost overruns.
Technical risks are associated with massive cost
overruns.
Do your estimates carefully!
Keep them up-to-date!
Manage to them!
Project Scheduling/Planning
COCOMO his high-level resource estimation. To
actually do project need more refined plan.
Estimation
History is your best ally
Especially when using LOC, function points, etc.
Get buy-in
Remember: its an iterative process!
Know your presentation techniques
Estimation
Bottom-up
More work to create but more accurate
Often with Expert Judgment at the task level
Top-down
Used in the earliest phases
Usually with/as Analogy or Expert Judgment
Analogy
Comparison with previous project: formal or informal
Expert Judgment
Via staff members who will do the work
Most common technique along w/analogy
Best if multiple experts consulted
Estimation
Parametric Methods
Know the trade-offs of: LOC & Function Points
Function Points
Benefit: relatively independent of the technology used to
develop the system
We will re-visit this briefly later in semester (when discussing
software metrics)
Variants: WEBMO (no need to know this for exam)
Re-Use Estimation
See QSPM outline
U Calgary
Estimating
Size (quantity/complexity) and Effort (duration)
Iterates
Scheduling
Begins along with 1st estimates
Iterates
Scheduling
Once tasks (from the WBS) and size/effort (from
estimation) are known: then schedule
Primary objectives
Best time
Least cost
Least risk
Secondary objectives
Evaluation of schedule alternatives
Effective use of resources
Communications
Terminology
Precedence:
A task that must occur before another is said to have
precedence of the other
Concurrence:
Concurrent tasks are those that can occur at the same time
(in parallel)
Terminology
Milestones
Terminology
Example
Milestones
Terminology
Slack & Float
Float & Slack: synonymous terms
Free Slack
Slack an activity has before it delays next task
Total Slack
Slack an activity has before delaying whole project
Slack Time TS = TL TE
TE = earliest time an event can take place
TL = latest date it can occur w/o extending projects
completion date
Scheduling Techniques
Mathematical Analysis
Network Diagrams
PERT
CPM
GERT
Bar Charts
Milestone Chart
Gantt Chart
Network Diagrams
Developed in the 1950s
A graphical representation of the tasks necessary
to complete a project
Visualizes the flow of tasks & relationships
Mathematical Analysis
PERT
Program Evaluation and Review Technique
CPM
Critical Path Method
MS-Project Example
Network Diagrams
Two classic formats
AOA: Activity on Arrow
AON: Activity on Node
Node Formats
Network Diagrams
AOA consists of
Circles representing Events
Such as start or end of a given task
AON
Tasks on Nodes
Nodes can be circles or rectangles (usually latter)
Task information written on node
Critical Path
The specific set of sequential tasks upon which
the project completion date depends
or the longest full path
CPM
Critical Path Method
The process for determining and optimizing the
critical path
Discretionary Dependencies
Resource Dependencies
Two task rely on the same resource
Ex: You have only one DBA but multiple DB tasks
Start-to-Start (SS)
B cannot start till A starts
A: Pour foundation; B: Level concrete
Finish-to-Finish (FF)
B cannot finish till A finishes
A: Add wiring; B: Inspect electrical
Start-to-Finish (SF)
B cannot finish till A starts (rare)
Example Step 1
Milestone Chart
Sometimes called a bar charts
Simple Gantt chart
Either showing just highest summary bars
Or milestones only
Bar Chart
Gantt Chart
Gantt Chart
Disadvantages
Does not show interdependencies well
Does not uncertainty of a given activity (as does PERT)
Advantages
Easily understood
Easily created and maintained
Compression Techniques
Shorten the overall duration of the project
Crashing
Fast Tracking
Overlapping of phases, activities or tasks that would otherwise be
sequential
Involves some risk
May cause rework
Mythical Man-Month
Book: The Mythical Man-Month
Author: Fred Brooks
Theclassicbookonthehumanelementsof
softwareengineering
First two chapters are full of terrific insight (and
quotes)
Mythical Man-Month
Cost varies as product of men and months,
progress does not.
Hence the man-month as a unit for measuring the
size of job is a dangerous and deceptive myth
Reliance on hunches and guesses
What is gutless estimating?
Mythical Man-Month
Optimism
All programmers are optimists
1st false assumption: all will go well or each task takes only
as long as it ought to take
The Fix: Consider the larger probabilities
Mythical Man-Month
Sequential nature of the process
The bearing of a child takes nine months, no matter
how many women are assigned
Mythical Man-Month
Q: How does a project get to be a year late?
A: One day at a time
Studies
Each task: twice as long as estimated
Only 50% of work week was programming
Fixes
No fuzzy milestones (get the true status)
Reduce the role of conflict
Identify the true status
Free evaluation
Intellysis project desktop
FastTrack Schedule
MS-Project
Mid-market leader
Has approx. 50% overall market share
70-80% MS-Project users never used automated project
tracking prior (a first tool)
Not a mid/high-end tool for EPM (Enterprise Project
Mgmt.)
While in this class you can get a free copy though MS
Academic Alliance email me if interested.
Project Pros
Easy outlining of tasks including support for hierarchical
Work breakdown structures (WBS)
Resource management
Accuracy: baseline vs. actual; various calculations
Easy charting and graphics
Cost management
Capture historical data
Project Cons
Illusion of control
Workgroup/sharing features ok, still in-progress
Scaling
No estimation features
Remember:
Being a MS-Project expert does not make you an
expert project manager!
No more so than knowing MS-Word makes you a
good writer.
Project UI
(Un)Link Buttons
Toolbars
Outline
Buttons
Indicators
Enter Tasks
Here
Timescale
Gantt Chart
View Bar
Task Bars
Task Sheet
Milestone
Split Bar
Enter WBS
Outlining
Sub-tasks and summary tasks
Do not enter start/end dates for each
Just start with Task Name and Duration for each
Use Indent/Outdent buttons to define summary
tasks and subtasks
You can enter specific Start/End dates but dont
most of the time
Establish Durations
Know the abbreviations
h/d/w/m
D is default
Elapsed durations
Estimated durations
Put a ? after duration
Add Resources
Work Resources
People
(can be % of a person. All resources split equally on task.
Tboult[25%], Eng1 means task gets 25% of tboults time, 100% of Eng1 thus
it gets 1.25MM per month).
Material Resources
Things
Can be used to track costs
Ex: amount of equipment purchased
Resource Sheet
Can add new resources here
Or directly in the task entry sheet
Beware of mis-spellings (Project will create near-duplicates)
Setup costs
Such as annual salary (put yr after Std. Rate)
Effort-Driven Scheduling
MS-Project default
Duration * Units = Work
Duration = Work / Units (D = W/U)
Work = Duration * Units (W = D*U)
Units = Work / Duration (U = W/D)
Link Tasks
On toolbar: Link & Unlink buttons
Good for many at once
Milestones
Zero duration tasks
Insert task normally but put 0 in duration
Common for reports, Functional module/test
completions, etc.
Good SE practice says milestones MUST be
measurable and well spread through the project.
Make Assignments
Approach 1. Using Task Sheet
Using Resource Names column
You can create new ones by just typing-in here
Save Baseline
Saves all current information about your project
Dates, resource assignments, durations, costs
Fine Tune
Then is used later as basis for comparing against
actuals
Menu: Tools/Tracking/Save Baseline
Project 2002
3 Editions: Standard, Professional, Server
MS Project Server 2002
(TBs never used server 2002 or newer) Based on docs.
Portfolio Modeler
Create models and what-if scenarios